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Looking ahead

Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff October 2, 2008 10:01 AM

Suppose two Red Sox fans -- Fan 1 and Fan 2, we'll call them -- are having a conversation. Fan 1 is an informed person who followed every piece of news for the last week. Fan 2 is a knowledgeable Boston follower who was in a coma from the moment before we learned about Josh Beckett's oblique injury until the moment Game 1 ended last night.

The conversation might go something like this:

Fan 2: "Hey, I just got out of a coma. Who won Game 1?"

Fan 1: "Sox, 4-1. Great game. Shoulda seen Jacoby and J-Bay."

Fan 2: "Oh, nice. So I guess Beckett pitched awesome, huh?"

Fan 1: "Actually, Beckett was hurt and Lester pitched."

Fan 2: "Dude, that's sweet! What a story he is. Man, really stinks that Beckett can't pitch, though."

Fan 1: "Oh, yeah. Actually, Francona says Beckett is going to be healthy for Game 3. He's pitching at Fenway against Joe Saunders."

Fan 2: "OhmyGodthatisfreakingawesome."

We know -- from Super Bowl XLII, Kevin Garnett's post-title screams, and Lyle Lovett marrying Julia Roberts -- that nothing is impossible. But the Angels, about 20 hours ago the favorite to win the series, are staring at a rather bleak immediate future.

Even if Daisuke Matsuzaka implodes tomorrow, the Red Sox took complete and utter control by winning Game 1. There are still some folks who are concerned about Beckett's oblique, and if he is hurt worse than the Sox are letting on, that basically invalidates the point of this blog post.

But if one month ago, someone told you the Red Sox will advance to the ALCS if Josh Beckett beats Joe Saunders at home and Jon Lester wins at Fenway, you'd be feeling pretty good about that, right? The Sox, it seems, are playing with house money right now.

How confident are you right now about the Sox moving forward? (Let us know in the comments section)

42 comments so far...
  1. Yes, last night's win was immensely huge. However, Dice must be sharp and focused on Friday night. He simply cannot afford to walk their bottom of the order or inferior batters....something he seems to have done all season long. He needs to through first pitch strikes and continue to pound the strike zone...no nibbling or pitching around. It's time for him to step up.

    Posted by Ben October 2, 08 10:30 AM
  1. I ah, I am thinking, we took 1 game...we have two more games to win..., then we have to get through the ALCS and probably the ahem, Rays (Devils). IF we do that, I will be confident...at the moment I am psyched about post season baseball. Jacoby's lead off double, Lester out of the 1st inning jam...and so forth...that was one hell of a game...we need big papi to step up though...he seems to lack patience right now, swinging at way too many first pitches and the menacing look when he glares at pitchers is GONE...he looks like the jolly giant standing there now whereas in the past he looked like he wanted to clobber anyone who got in his way of a homerun.

    Posted by Brando October 2, 08 10:38 AM
  1. The Sox showed so much heart last night that it made me feel that they can pull this thing off for the second year in a row.

    Posted by Cinco_Ocho October 2, 08 10:44 AM
  1. I predicted a 3-0 series win by Boston even before last nights game.

    And I feel very comfortable with my picks. In March 2007 I predicted a Sox vs Rox World Series and this March I predicted Tampa to finish second in the east behind Boston.

    Many people laughed at both thoughts of the Rox making the World Series and the Yankees finishing third, behind the Rays no less.

    Posted by Travis Liles October 2, 08 10:46 AM
  1. Lester was big, but don't overlook Masterson/Papelbon. We know what we're going to get from Paps, but having Masterson shore this BP up is basically negating what the "experts" were calling Boston's one blaring weakness.

    Dice-K will be his usual 115 pitches, 5+ innings, squirm his way out of three bases loaded jams having only given up 2 runs.

    This is a different team. They're not the idiots, and they're not '07 with the big 3-4 in the middle of the line up. But they impress me more and more, and they may just be hitting their stride now.

    Posted by Jeff October 2, 08 10:56 AM
  1. So, I was thinking, well, other than the Phillies yesterday, the favorites did not win yesterday, so I find myself thinking if we win tomorrow, we stand a pretty good chance of taking this in four, but my bigger thought...I suspect we will be playing Chicago next. I think the key for Dice K's first few innings is that he has to fall into the walking guys, try and load the bases with Texiera, Vlad, and Hunter because the rest of the order is so-so. And yes, it would be nice for our big bats to do something, it is funny to watch the other team react to the random parts of our order hitting them, but it would also be nice to actually let Jacoby score everytime he is on base.

    Posted by Kate October 2, 08 11:25 AM
  1. All you have to do is think back to ALCS in 2004. The Yankees thought they had control of the series after 3 games. Remember what happened?

    Posted by Klark October 2, 08 11:37 AM
  1. i think if josh beckett pitches games 3 and dice -k is sharp and does not walk alot of batters he will be fine the hero of that game will be mattherson out of the bull-pen josh beckett goes 7+ innings see if i am right ...

    Posted by jay1964 October 2, 08 11:46 AM
  1. Hey, I never thought Beckett was hurt anyway.

    If you think about it, based on second half performance, the current rotation is probably what Francona wanted all along.

    But after last year's post-season, how do you sit Beckett and pitch him only once in the series, without bogging the team down with media and fan second-guessing?

    I like my theory. It makes Francona a genius and Beckett a great team player. But we'll have to see how well JB pitches on Sunday to know whether we've been gamed!

    Posted by Edward Anderson October 2, 08 11:50 AM
  1. Game 1 was huge, and having an "ace" in the hole for Game 3 should make every Sox fan optimistic that the Sox domination of the Halos in postseason play will continue.

    Just be ready to strap yourselves in for one of Dice-K's agonizing starts tomorrow. If anyone noticed, the Angels were being a little more patient at the plate, a little less free-swinging. If they can lay off Dice-K the way they did Lester (at least, early), it could spell trouble and another 5-inning-and-out performance. Good news is the bullpen should be rested and ready after only having to perform two innings last night.

    But like Kilgore said, Sox are playing with house money - Games 3 and 4 (if necessary) are at Fenway, with our two true aces pitching. Feels good.

    Posted by AK October 2, 08 12:02 PM
  1. Remember that the while the Angels won 100 games, their victory total inflates their actual stats. Bill James' expected wins and losses formula, based on runs scored vs. runs against, ranks the Angels as only an 89 win team.
    Team's Expected W-L Based on Runs Scored vs. Against
    Tampa Bay Rays 92-70
    Boston Red Sox 97-65
    Los Angeles Angels 89-73
    Chicago White Sox 90-73

    Posted by momaher October 2, 08 12:06 PM
  1. I don't know of any awards for winning game one of any series. Yes, Lester was huge. Yet, it might have more to do with the Angels miscues (Vladdy) than anything else. For a while, Lackey was awesome. He kept getting his fastball to hit the outside corner consistently for strikes, and then was able to come back and get his curve to drop in when he wanted it. He was getting first pitch strikes to the first 11 batters he faced and the Sox came up empty over the first 4 innings when they did get men on base. I think we dodged a bullet. IF Dice-K can keep us in game 2, and go at least 6 innings, then I would say it is a lock. If Dice-K loads up the bases and plays with fire with this Angels lineup, we could be coming home 1-1 and possibly looking at Byrd or Wake as game 3 starter. But, thumbs up for game one, better to be in this position than down 0-1.

    Posted by Jim W. October 2, 08 12:07 PM
  1. I agree that winning a game on the road is huge, especially game one, but we also need to put in perspective. This is postseason baseball anything can happen. Imagine if it turned out the other way. We would be telling ourselves that its just one game and if Dice pitches well we could be coming home to in a good position. I think we will win the series, but we can't treat it as if its locked up.

    Posted by D.C. Sox Fan October 2, 08 12:12 PM
  1. ---
    and Jon Lester wins at Fenway
    ---

    What does that even mean?

    Posted by Ryan October 2, 08 12:23 PM
  1. I feel pretty darn good about where we are to be honest. Clearly, you can never get too far ahead of yourself, but if Lester can pitch another game in this series like he did last night, then we should have a second W in the bag. Then we've just got to win 1 of 2 starts by Dice K OR the Beckett start at Fenway. Lester just looks really, really strong right now. After some early control issues, he really started taking over and looked pretty much unstoppable after he got rolling. Back him up with Masterson and Paps and this team is going to be tough to beat on the days he gets the ball. Dice K scares me because he tries to be too fine and he will probably get raked against a power team like the Angels, but hey, we can hit too - let's just hope we bring the big bats. Either that - or win Beckett's start and the second Lester start.

    One other thing - it's obviously way down the road, but Beckett being pushed back means he'll be ready to start game 1 of the ALCS (assuming he's healthy) if this thing goes the distance. Yes, blasphemous to talk about that far down the road, but still, a nice little perk.

    Posted by J.P. October 2, 08 12:25 PM
  1. Anyone notice Drew swung at the first pitch of EACH at bat last night? For someone who is known to be patient, he was in a hurry to get out of the batter's box.

    Posted by Moby October 2, 08 12:34 PM
  1. I am fairly confident. I want to see Drew start to hit, and I am not sold on Lowell's health. I think Beckett will be fine. The Sox are in great shape this morning. I also believe that the Sox are in the Angels head. This Game 1 loss has to be very dis-heartening for Mike Sciosa and Co., especially after they steam rolled the Sox during the regular season. Nice start to the psot season.

    Posted by Paul October 2, 08 12:39 PM
  1. The first game is the biggest game for the underdog to win and that is the mind frame we need this year. We know we have the lineup to win it all yet again, but we need to stay focused. With Dice on the mound, I don't think 2-0 is out of the question at all!

    Posted by Bryan October 2, 08 12:39 PM
  1. Well, I'm definitely feeling more confident about advancing after last night's stellar performance. It was a complete package--Lester's strong outing, clutch hitting by Bay, heads-up defense in the 8th--all good things to have in October. Would really like to see Dice-K go after these guys and last at least 6 or 7 innings.

    Great start by the hometown team--GO SOX!!!

    Posted by denver_soxfan October 2, 08 12:42 PM
  1. I don't get why so many people get so down on Dice-K. The guy went 18-3 this year and had an ERA under 3! I understand he can be frustrating to watch at times, but what in the results gives people this big concern that he will implode? He's given up 3 runs or less in 25 of his 29 starts this year. You can worry about him not lasting as long as we'd all like, but the results while he's been in there have been nothing short of spectacular this year.

    Posted by Ethan October 2, 08 12:46 PM
  1. It does look good, Don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but it is amazing how one game changes so much in a short series,

    just about everybody was picking the Angels, and that made me feel good about our chances, the defending champs as underdogs?... come on now..

    Posted by Dave A October 2, 08 12:49 PM
  1. Sox will win game 2 4-3 as Dice-K gives up three hits and walks 22 in six. The game ends at 3:30 am Saturday.

    Posted by scotty two-times October 2, 08 12:50 PM
  1. "OhmyGodthatisfreakingawesome."

    Posted by Paul October 2, 08 12:52 PM
  1. The Red Sox are playing with house money right now. However, I'm surprised that so many national writers dismissed the Red Sox with Beckett starting third. Dice-K won 18 games, and Lester has been lights out in recent weeks. Lackey is a great regular season pitcher, but like the Rocket, he has always had problems in the post-season. If Dice-K stuns everyone by shutting the Angels down in game 2, then the Angels are all but done (unless Beckett's injury is worse than we think). I cannot see how the Angels come to Fenway and win against both Lester & Beckett is they are down 0-2. We still need to be mindful that a number of the Sox are injured (Lowell, Drew, Beckett), and that can change everything on a dime. The Sox middle lineup also needs to produce more runs - Youk, Drew, Ortiz were too quiet last night.

    Posted by Chowdaman October 2, 08 12:56 PM
  1. Last night was big, but in my opinion, Lester has been the staff ace all season. Even if Beckett was completely healthy, I would not have freaked out if Francona chose Lester over Beckett in game #1. At best this season, Beckett has been slightly above average. Lester, on the other hand, has shown many glimpses of dominance, especially in the second half of the season. Now, from Beckett's track record in the post season, ultimately I want the ball in his hand. But Lester is as tough-as-nails too and I, for one, am not shocked Lester pitched great and put the Sox in the driver's seat. In my opinion, I think you would have had to have been in a season-long coma to think anything otherwise.

    Posted by pete22 October 2, 08 12:57 PM
  1. I disagree about the "Sox, it seems, are playing with house money" comment.
    This game was very close, the Sox have gotten a couple of lucky breaks and the Angels have made a couple of mistakes which determined the outcome. You can't really count on having the same good luck next time Lester pitches against Lackey - but yet you pretty much assume an automatic win.
    If Dice-K loses this game (or lasts his usual 5 innings thus exposing shaky bullpen) the series win will be anything but a sure thing.
    Please note that I am not even touching the issue of how healthy is Beckett.

    Posted by M.R. October 2, 08 01:12 PM
  1. C'mon now. It's one game. Don't get too giddy yet.

    Posted by Rajiv October 2, 08 02:01 PM
  1. So... is Lester on a life-time contract or what? cause he needs one

    Posted by MJS October 2, 08 02:03 PM
  1. More confident than I was when Jacoby's lead-off double went for naught. As I was constantly reminded last night by my friend Andrea as we watched the game at Nic and Dino's Tripoli Tavern in Chicago (obvious shout out), "Don't worry, they're going to win the game. They're going to win the series. Don't be so negative!"

    I think Lester, Jacoby, Masterson and Pap all made me a believer again. But deep down, in my 22 years of existance, I will always be a skeptic. That's what makes winning a thousand times better.

    Posted by Ben October 2, 08 02:03 PM
  1. One day at a time, one game at a time, one pitch at a time...and THEN
    we'll talk (she says with cautious optimism..)

    Posted by Barb October 2, 08 02:18 PM
  1. 10 more wins...........Don't lose sight of that!

    Posted by shogan October 2, 08 03:03 PM
  1. I was at the game last night, 5 row behind the plate...

    Lacky was really great... he made one mistake because Bay is much more of a fastball hitter than anything else.

    Great game though, Jacoby was awesome!

    let's hope Dice K can pitch well and AT LEAST 6 innings!

    Posted by brian October 2, 08 03:07 PM
  1. John Lester was IMMENSE!! Jacoby was his usual post-season self! (I feel giddy saying that!) As in previous seasons, this year's version of the Olde Towne Team is as focused and as stubborn as a red-headed step-son raiding the cookie jar! They have no quit in them, a characteristic that Manny-Wood appears to lack! DAMMIT! I wanted to enter this comment without mentioning that eternal ingrate's name. My bad! In any event, I don't want to hear ANY Francona bashing...EVER AGAIN!! Lester's 1st inning escape was critical...and heroic (Awright, so "heroic" is a little over the top!). When Lowery snatched that error from a routine force play, I imagined Don Buddin screaming in immortal pain! But, to Lowery's credit, he shook off the error. Good for him! I can't wait for Game 2. I'm confident that Dice-K will come up BIG for us. Can you imagine a 2-0 lead going back to Fenway? I'll gladly surrender my Game 4 ticket for another sweep of the Angels! GO SOX!!

    Posted by John Creamer October 2, 08 03:13 PM
  1. Hats off to Lester. Perhaps he and Papelbon are the best home grown talent since Clemens and Hurst. (Can we now drop the "cancer survivor" talk and just focus on his great pitching. It's a great story for sure, amazing really. But let's move on -- turn the page). Its interesting that Lester and Ellsbury are keys to victory, while they guy they were possibly traded for in Santana sits home (though through no fault of his own). A huge win in a short series for sure and emphasizes the point that great top of the rotation pitching is devestating in short series, and to a certain extent even in the regular 7 game series when that pitching performs well from the get go (see 2004 and 2007 ALDS and WS).

    Posted by David M. October 2, 08 03:18 PM
  1. I see this series going to Game 4, maybe it's just because I have tickets to the game or maybe because dice-k and his typical 5 innings worry me. Especially because this game was very close and the 3-4-5 of the Angels is so strong. The sox got a few breaks and capitalized which is what they need to contineu to do. I'd love to see Lester clinch this series on Monday. GO SOX

    Posted by Mike October 2, 08 03:21 PM
  1. let me get this straight...
    Dice-K goes 18-3, leading the team in wins, with a 2.90 era, which also is tops among Sox starters, and somehow he's being portrayed as the weak link...?? HUH!?
    I understand it to an extent. Dice-K doesn't give off the aura of an ace and people don't like all the walks he gives up... but guess what folks, they're just walks. His WHIP is very close to Lester's, but when you consider that those walks are instead singles, doubles, triples and homers for Lester, wouldn't you much rather have Dice-K walking players?
    Dice-K's game may be unconventional in that regard, but he's every bit the pitcher that Beckett and Lester are.

    Posted by Brendan October 2, 08 04:05 PM
  1. If the Sox are able to take Game 2 on Friday, and Beckett is really not 100%, I wonder if they'd hold him back and try to win with Byrd or Wake on Sunday at home. If they can pull off the sweep, they have the ability to give Beckett more rest until the start of the ALCS, and if they don't with Game 3, they can come back with Lester (or Beckett) on Monday night. I'm not making any assumptions that anything is in the bag, because we all know "anything is possible".

    Posted by Rick October 2, 08 04:32 PM
  1. Yeah - the Julia Roberts thing had me pretty puzzled too. What Lyle ever saw in her I'll never know. Fortunately, I have a boat . . .

    Posted by John October 2, 08 04:55 PM
  1. The best AL and the best NL team lost last night. One of those teams will come back and win their series.

    Posted by additive October 2, 08 04:56 PM
  1. I guessed yesterday that the Red Sox would win in four. I certainly haven't changed my mind but any team that can beat you eight straight can certainly beat you three straight.

    Posted by kysoxfan October 2, 08 04:59 PM
  1. I don't know why everybody is so down on Dice-K and the sox bullpen.......Dice-K has kept us in almost every start this yr.......If I remember right we have only lost 5 or 6 games that he has started.....And I read the other day that in the last 2 months the top five relief pitchers have a combined ERA of less than 2.00........So c'mon and give them both a little credit.......Go Sox!!!!

    Posted by minico dirt dawg October 2, 08 06:41 PM
  1. No pre-2004 die hard is ever confident or cocky. That's how you can always tell us from the nouveau fans. Several of us have already weighed in above, as you can see. Go Sox!!!

    Posted by Stormi October 3, 08 02:33 PM
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