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Q&A with Adam Kilgore

Posted by David Lefort, Boston.com Staff October 7, 2008 01:26 PM

The Globe's Adam Kilgore checked in earlier today to answer your questions about last night's Game 4 of the ALDS and the upcoming ALCS between the Red Sox and Rays. Here's a transcript:

Adam Kilgore: You're looking ... LIVE! at Espresso Royale Cafe, home of some seriously outstanding bagel sandwiches and some seriously free and reliable wireless internet. (Only a short walk from Fenway, too; you can almost still smell the champagne and Bud Light.) What a great game last night. I can't wait to talk about it in my maiden Sox chat. Onward.

cleatshigh: In both of Lester's starts he was taken out after the 7th when he appeared to be getting stronger, hitting 97 . Last night he retired 8 in a row and did not appear to be faltering. Other than being at 107 pitches why take out your best pitcher in this series and hand it over to two inconsistent relievers? Francona dodged a bullet. Lastly, why are they so adverse to sacrafice bunting?

Adam Kilgore: For question 1: When Lester got Mike Napoli out on that fly to the warning track in left to end the seventh, in his mind, he thought he was done. When pitching coach John Farrell asked Lester if he was done, Lester, without giving it much thought, replied, "Yes." Even though Lester later said he could go back out, Terry Francona thought it was dangerous to take a pitcher who mentally turned it off and then send him back out, anyway. Plus, he had thrown 109 pitches -- only a hyper-quick inning likely would have prevented a mid-inning pitching change. Let there be no mistake: Jon Lester has been the best player in these playoffs, on any team in any league. I don't see how you could argue otherwise.

Adam Kilgore: Question 2: They are adverse to sacrifice bunting because it makes little sense Sabrematically to do so. I agree wholeheartedly -- the potential benefit of moving a runner up one base by sacrifice a full third of an inning is not worth it. Old-school baseball people love it; ask Mike Scioscia, Reggie Willits, and Erick Aybar how far old-school baseball plays like that get you in October.

HankHill: I'm probably the only one to ask this question: Are we going to see Wake in Games 1 or 2?

Adam Kilgore: Certainly not as a starter. Perhaps as a long reliever, but only if something goes horribly wrong. The Red Sox are set up to throw Josh Beckett in Game 1 and Lester in Game 2. The Red Sox, unlike in the ALDS, will need a fourth starter, and that will probably be Wakefield over Paul Byrd, mainly because using Wakefield as a long reliever brings with it sticky complications. Also, Byrd has been a reliever before in his career and is very open to potentially contributing in that manner.

Bushie: What's the deal with the Red Sox poor record in domed stadiums this year?

Adam Kilgore: The Red Sox overall finished under .500 (39-42) on the road, so they didn't perform terribly well in any venue outside of Fenway Park. But Bushie is on to something -- the Red Sox went 1-8 at Tropicana Field, 1-3 at the Metrodome, and 1-1 at the Tokyo Dome. One theory: The Twins and Rays were two of the better teams in the American League. That doesn't explain the severity of a 2-11 record on the road against those teams, but it's part of it. I'm not sure I can put my finger on anything else that would lead to the Sox playing poorly in domes. Anyone have any theories?

californiaPdentist: AK, great game last night, love the Red Sox, hope they go undefeated for the rest of my life. But my annoyance with champagne celebrations after every round of the playoffs has turned to outright disgust. A) whatever happened to "we haven't won anything yet"? and B) I know this won't solve the problem of alcohol abuse forever and ever, but does MLB worry, at least a little, about the image this sends, with free-flowing alcohol in every clubhouse?

Adam Kilgore: A) I understand this point, and it's certainly a valid way to look at thing, but I disagree. Only four teams are still playing baseball right now. That's something worth celebrating. They have won something -- the ALDS. B) MLB has not shown any worry about this. Several teams began banning beer in the clubhouse after the death of Josh Hancock. Interesting sentiment, cPd. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

ed: Hi Adam, who do you think will be the Game 1 starter for the sox in this series Friday?

Adam Kilgore: Josh Beckett. We'll see if getting that first start out of the way after a 13-day layoff and an intense rehab will return him to his all-timer postseason form.

Booyah: Educated guess - will we see Wake pitch in the dome this series? If so, what kind of situation? Blowout, or something tighter?

Adam Kilgore: We very well may see Tim Wakefield start Game 4 at Fenway Park. If the Sox elect to go with Paul Byrd in that game, we'll see Wakefield only in a blowout (think Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS) or if a starter goes down with an early, unforeseen injury. My guess is the Sox will go with Wakefield to start, for the aforementioned reasons.

DavyB: Hi Adam, great game last night! I was a little surprised to hear some of the Angels saying that they were the better team and lost. Didn't they say the same thing last year or was that the Indians?

Adam Kilgore: I don't recall the Indians having a similar sentiment, but, wow, John Lackey was positively steaming last night. Here were his bold comments, via Amy Nelson's ESPN.com story: "It's way different than last year. We are way better than they are. We lost to a team not as good as us. ... [On Sunday] they scored on a pop fly they called a hit, which is a joke. [On Monday], they score on a broken-bat ground ball and a fly ball anywhere else in America [except in Fenway Park]. And [Pedroia's] fist-pumping on second like he did something great." My guess is the Sox will take the high road when asked about the comments. As a reporter, I have to be honest and say I sure hope they don't.

My_Dog_Sox: Teixeira looked great at first and at the plate. Any chance of us seeing a lot more of him next year, like for 162 games plus?

Adam Kilgore: The Red Sox are one of few teams who have the money to throw at Teixeira, who is represented by Scott Boras and did indeed look great at first base this series. He's the kind of slugging, on-base hitter the Red Sox covet. My guess, though, is that the Yankees will throw an obscene amount of money at him and he'll end up there. Plus, the Red Sox have no reason to not want Kevin Youkilis at first for the forseeable future, and Mike Lowell still has a couple more years left at third (where the Sox could stash Youkilis if they wanted to make a run at Teixeira.) It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it's much more likely Teixeira ends up in pinstripes. So you may see a lot more of him next year, but not that much more.

Titletownfan: I have never doubted Tito's ability but I found myself wanting to rip his heart out in the eighth. BY games end I wanted to kiss him. KEEP THE FAITH

Adam Kilgore: Francona, I'm sure, has given many fans this sensation over the years. Masterson didn't work out last night, but as I explained above, taking out Lester was something that he was forced to do and was probably the right decision. Francona doesn't always make the classic choice, but he usually makes the right choice. Do you realize if he wins eight more games this season, he will pretty much punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame? Take a look at the list of managers who have won three World Series titles, and see what they have in common.

Bushie: Was Julio Lugo present for the celebrations last night? Must be kind of awkward for him to celebrate with the team.

Adam Kilgore: Julio Lugo was there, spraying champagne. I'm not sure if it was that awkward. He's been with team for a good month or so trying to rehab, and I think everyone in the clubhouse still feels as though he is part of the team.

My_Dog_Sox: Who is the likely 4th starter, Wakefield or Byrd? Who has better numbers against the Rays?

Adam Kilgore: Byrd vs. Tampa this season: No outings; Wakefield vs. Tampa this season: 0-2, 5.87, 7 K, 8 BB; Byrd vs. Tampa career: 2-2, 5.14 ERA, 21 K, 7 BB; Wakefield vs. Tampa career: 19-5, 3.32, 145 K, 70 BB

Rento: Is Josh Beckett 100% or did he just have a bad outing Sunday night?

Adam Kilgore: Beckett, clearly, is not 100 percent. The Red Sox say he is healthy enough to pitch and pitch well. Beckett, Jason Varitek, and Francona maintained he was just barely off with his pitches. Coming off an oblique injury, I feel like there's more reason to be concerned than they're letting on. That, admittedly, could be unfounded skepticism. So, to answer your question more directly: A little bit of both. It will be interesting to see what he does in Game 1.

DavyB: It doesn't seem to matter much in the season how well the Sox played the Angels or T.B.; it looks like a big warmup to the postseason. I think the Red Sox are playing their best baseball now. I think Francona deserves a lot of credit for having this team ready for October the last two seasons. How do think our pitching matches up against Tampa's? Starting, middle, and end?

Adam Kilgore: The Red Sox have the best starter in Jon Lester. Putting Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound, even while acknowleding how impressive his regular season was, is like shooting an arrow into the air. Beckett is still something of a question mark. Tampa Bay has a deeper staff; Andy Sonnanstine, on paper, has a big advantage over Byrd or Wakefield as a fourth starter. And Shields-Kazmir-Garza ain't bad. The Sox have the better closer in Jonathan Papelbon, but the Rays, again, have a deeper bullpen. Grant Balfour, a righty, and J.P. Howell, a lefty, were lights out this season and in the ALDS against the White Sox. And the Rays also have the option of going to 2007 first overall pick David Price, a true phenom, as a reliever. Overall: Sox have the best at the top, but the Rays are deeper.

Bushie: Where will Manny play in 2009?

Adam Kilgore: You're asking me to predict something involving Manny Ramirez? I can only guess, and it's a wild guess: New York Mets.

Where_s_Manny_: Masterson scares me. There, I said it. He's not a short reliever. Over 2-3 innings, he's fine. I don't trust him with runners on base.

Adam Kilgore: One fan's opinion. For what it's worth, Masterson supplanted Manny Delcarmen as Francona's go-to righty in the eighth. After Delcarmen's impressive ALDS and a couple shaky outings by Masterson, that could change.

KILGORE_ROCKS: Where is this cafe you talk about?

Adam Kilgore: Gainsborough, right off of Huntington. By the Symphony. I recommend the Turkey Avacado Club on a wheat everything bagel, toasted.

papi: Any chance the sox start with Beckett on Friday on normal rest, then follow with Lester & Dice K?

Adam Kilgore: This is exactly what I'm expecting.

IK: Will we see mostly Kotsay at 1st in this series or will Tito be doing some platooning over there?

Adam Kilgore: I think we'll see a lot of Mark Kotsay at first. He would have been the hero last night if not for a nasty diving play by Teixeira at first. And his glove -- an area where Casey is below average -- has been outstanding. For a player who has played 34 of his 1,450 career games as a first baseman, he looks extremely natural there. Casey is 2 for 4 against presumptive Game 1 Tampa Bay starter James Shields, and Kotsay never has faced him. I would still expect Kotsay, though. (David Ortiz is 7 for 14 with two homers off Shields, by the way.)

dcarn211: sox over TB in 6

Adam Kilgore: One fan's opionion.

Titletownfan: After the 2004 World Series the answer at that time was "Terry came and bought a championship. BB came and created a DYNASTY. Fast forward 4 years; "What is Tito's status now?

Adam Kilgore: Well, it depends on how loose your definition of dynasty. Three out of five -- and four of out six in the ALCS and five out of six in the playoffs -- gets you in the conversation, without question. My personal opinion is that a dynasty requires more championships over a longer period than the Patriots acheived, and the Red Sox would need a few more titles as well. But you could make the argument for a Red Sox dynasty if they win it all this year.

Spencer: So will we see Beckett and Lester again in games 5 and 6, and Dice-K in a potential game 7? That's a little scary.

Adam Kilgore: That makes sense to me. Don't forget: As maddening as Matsuzaka was at times this season, he did have an 18-3 record with a 2.90 ERA. Given that an entire country hangs on his every start, anyway, the pressure of Game 7 may feel neutral for him.

My_Dog_Sox: It seems as though all of the Red Sox hitters were locked onto curveballs by the end of the series. It paid off, but it sure seemed that a lot of hittable fastballs were watched. Don't you think they need to be a little more aggressive?

Adam Kilgore: I'm sure they'll adjust their approach depending on who's pitching. Jed Lowrie, for example, said Scot Shields had struck him out on three straight curves the night before, so he expected that first-pitch curve he hit to right for the game-winner. I think what makes the Red Sox such a formidable postseason team is their patience at the plate, not their aggression. Wearing down starters is so, so key in the playoffs, and the Sox have it down better than anyone at the moment.

Adam Kilgore: OK, everyone. That's all the time we have for today. Thanks so much for all the questions. There are still some great ones left, and I'm sorry I couldn't get to all of them. If there's a question you want answered, feel free to e-mail me at akilgore@globe.com. Thanks. Have a great day.

12 comments so far...
  1. I am finding the pitching possibilities so crazy, I would rather focus on hoping on this one...Kotsay on first and Youk on third until we are done, they were both so impressive last night, I started thinking did Tito start looking at his plethora of outfielders during the regular season and start thinking, well, uh, they should all play the infield, and wait, even one of my catchers can somewhat play third base, maybe Dustin can have a night off once in while. And, back to my hopes, that Sean Casey only has designated hitter duty if we are facing a last at bat and Ortiz is not feeling it or the game where we have batting practice against Kazmir again and Papi has hit is two or three homers already. And, my question, I have wondered why Joe Thurston wasn't called up rather than Gil Velaquiz because if you have watched Thurstion's at bat and fielding, they are amazing. I have only see Gil in the Paw Sow posing as the Boston Red Sox games against the Yankees the last week of the regular season.

    Posted by Kate October 7, 08 02:56 PM
  1. Adam,
    I enjoyed reading the chat transcript. I disagree with your choice of starters. I think you start Dice-K, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield/Byrd, Dice-k, Beckett and Lester. Don't you want Dice-K on the road and Lester at home (for Game #3) and for Game #7. It is great we have this issue to discuss!!

    Posted by Todd Bundy October 7, 08 03:56 PM
  1. Re Teixeira: Keep in mind that there is NO guarantee that Lowell is coming back next year. If the Sox make nothing more than a token offer to Teixeira, they are taking a major gamble that a player at the end of his career will not only make a full recovery, but will also not fall to a lesser level of play (Lowell HAS had off years before).

    Lowell aside, the Sox very much need an upgrade at the plate somewhere in their lineup. Varitek (for whom there is at present no suitable replacement) can barely bat his weight - and the same must be said about Ortiz. Drew cannot be counted upon for a full season. And Jason Bay is a wonderful player, but he cannot quite replace Manny's plate presence. The deterioration (or absence) of these 4 former contributors will affect the entire team's batting performance next season unless it is acknowledged and addressed.

    In addition: We do not know how Lowrie will perform at the plate in his second season. We do not know if Ellsbury will flourish or slump - he did both this year. And is it reasonable to expect Pedroia to carry the team's burdens at bat next year?

    Meanwhile, Teixeira is the total Red Sox package. He is mentally tough, fields his position superbly, and makes pitchers work.

    Teixeira would be a good (and much needed) upgrade. But he's not an option - he is a necessity, if the team is evaluated with brutal honesty. I expect the Sox will see him as a key to future success, and will pursue him as aggressively as they did Dice-K.

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 7, 08 05:29 PM
  1. It's funny, isn't it, that according to the losers (the Angels in this case), the best teams never seem to win post season series'. If the losers are always so damn great then why are they the losers?

    Posted by Victor DiPace October 7, 08 07:31 PM
  1. Quick addendum: Adding Teixeira, it will be immediately noted, will give the Sox 3 starters for two positions (first and third), assuming that Lowell does come back at full strength. So, if Teixeira is signed, here are your possible scenarios:

    1) Lowell is unable to come back, or comes back extremely slowly/weakly. Sox management will be lauded for having a magic crystal ball. (If Youk gets hurt, same thing of course.)

    2) Lowell comes back 100% healthy and rarin' to go. What do we do with 3 corner men? Recall that the question at the beginning of THIS year was, 'What will the Sox do with 4 starting outfielders?' Yet that never was a real problem, and in fact having 4 starting outfielders helped keep the Sox in contention all year. Youk was clearly overused this year, and that cannot continue. He held up well, but it would be wise not to push his and the team's luck in the future. Lowell, even if he comes back healthy, could easily get reinjured. At best, he can hardly be expected to be an iron man next year.

    Three starters - stars, even - at the corners can be managed, and seems like a good precaution all around. Teixeira is an outstanding fit for the Sox' needs all around.

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 8, 08 12:22 AM
  1. Oh, uh, one last thing: Re Teixeira going to the Yankees:

    If you were Teixeira, would you, voluntarily, go to the Yankees' organization - for ANY amount of money - right now?

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 8, 08 12:31 AM
  1. Adam, to your comment about wearing down pitchers ("Sox have it down better than anyone at the moment")... I did a quick check of the box scores that affirmed my memory. Sox pitchers threw more pitches than Angels pitchers in three of the four ALDS games. G1 151-135 (Sox); G2 178-162 (Sox); G3 215-226 (Angels); G4 150-121 (Sox). So it would seem the Angels were right there with us in wearing down pitchers. Though I recall some Angels' hitters' saying earlier in the series the Sox pitchers would not give in -- i.e. preferred to give up the walk to grooving a strike.

    Posted by Doug Nicholas October 8, 08 10:10 AM
  1. I'm not a hard Sabremetrician, but I've disliked the sacrifice bunt since I was a kid. Outs are precious; except in a clearly defined situation, I've never seen the point in giving one away.

    Posted by PumpsieGr October 8, 08 11:52 AM
  1. Youre right, Snitch that Lowell is no guarantee that he can come back next season. But he is guarantee under two more years of contract with the team. So the only way we can find out is to see how long Lowell will be out for next season after his surgery. If he is ready by spring training, think it is very impossible to get Texeria unless Sox are willing to trade Youkilis. Sox isnt going to keep three corner guys on the team while one will sit down. But if Sox see that Lowell is out for the season next year just like Schilling, think Sox will go after Texeria. So it is depend on how successful is Lowell's surgery. Sox's priority is not to get Texeria, think Sox would like to steal one of the top free agent pitcher such as Burkett or Sabathia to prevent one of them to go to the Yankees!!

    Posted by Mike October 8, 08 12:40 PM
  1. Hey cPd why don't take the giant neon Budweiser sign off the right field roof! And stop serving beer in the stand! Alcohol is the devil right?

    Please. The champaign in the clubhouse is more of a prop anyway.

    And I for one say celebrate any darn chance you get.

    Posted by Amy October 8, 08 03:26 PM
  1. "Sox's priority is not to get Texeria, think Sox would like to steal one of the top free agent pitcher such as Burkett or Sabathia to prevent one of them to go to the Yankees!!"

    I disagree with Mike but I respect his opinion. We will see what actually develops. I believe, in terms of "keeping pitchers out of the hands of the Yankees", the Sox may make some noise about these two to keep the pressure on. But I believe that will be a smoke screen to get what they really want, which is Teixeira. As for these two pitchers, remember that (a) the Yankees are (quite probably) LOSING two starters next year (Petite and Mussina), so that even if they gained both these guys they'd still be only marginally better off, (b) they need a lot more than two pitchers, even solid ones, to become competitive again (i.e., they're not "one or two pieces away from a pennant"), and (c) the Yanks will be competing desperately with the Mets for players like these.

    This makes it a good time for the Sox to go into the free agent market, holding their cards close to the vest. The Yanks and Mets are basket cases that need all sorts of help, and so the Sox can go in and focus on the player or two they really want, hiding behind a smokescreen of interest in others that the NY teams covet.

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 8, 08 04:20 PM
  1. In the coming New World Economic Order, only sports reporters who update comments in a timely fashion will keep their jobs.

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 8, 08 07:03 PM
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