Rotation set; Matsuzaka to pitch Game 1
The pitching matchups are set.
Terry Francona announced the Red Sox' rotation for the ALCS at a press conference at Fenway Park this afternoon, and Rays manager Joe Maddon later confirmed his plans during his meeting with the media at Tropicana Field.
Here's the breakdown:
Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. James Shields
Game 2: Josh Beckett vs. Scott Kazmir
Game 3: Jon Lester vs. Matt Garza
Game 4: Tim Wakefield vs. Andy Sonnanstine
Game 5*: Matsuzaka vs. Shields
Game 6*: Beckett vs. Kazmir
Game 7*: Lester vs. Garza
(*if necessary)
Francona said he set the rotation by trying to limit complications -- everyone gets enough rest, no one gets too much. His primary rationale was, the top three pitchers will each throw two games if the series goes seven games, so the order is not of primary importance.
"That's the way we're set up to go," Francona said. "The reasoning is actually pretty simple. I thought this was how it would shake out, even before we did the media after we beat [the Angles]. We just needed to take the proper time and think it through.
"You could get into a lot of details, but there really didn't need to be. The way it lined up was appropriate. Again, for us, those three will pitch twice if it goes to seven. In the end, as long as they're pitching, the order isn't as important. So then you go, 'OK. What's best for them?'
"It gives people rest – not too much rest, not too little. This is probably the best way. We didn't want one going on eight [days rest], one guy going on regular. Keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest at this time of year is huge. We'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much.
"Guys that pitched 1, 2, and 3 are lined up for 5, 6, and 7. Nobody is going to throw three. So having those three twice is really what's important, regardless of how they lined up."
Francona, as he has in the past, did not stress pitching his best pitchers early in the series, the logic beind simple: If you need a great pitcher to win, say, Game 6, then you're doomed, anyway, so it's best to ensure proper rest. Francona felt no need to throw Lester – the dominant force of the ALDS who pitched 14 innings without surrendering an earned run – on regular rest in Game 2.
"It's best of seven. It's not best of six," Francona said. "The idea is to win the series, not win Game 6. I never quite understood that philosophy. Our idea, the way we set it up, is to win the series. If it's such a big deal to pitch [Lester] in Game 6, what happens Game 7? We'll give the guys the rest they need and set it up for the entire series. And then if you're losing, don't panic."
Meanwhile, in St. Petersburg, Fla., Maddon told the Tampa media that he's comfortable with the order of his rotation, though there's a chance he could use Sonnanstine before Game 4 and have Shields make his second start of the series on short rest.
"Theoretically perfect would be those four guys in a row [as we have it]," Maddon said. "[Shields] in the first game because he normally gets a little deeper in the game, Kaz in the second game if he runs into bit of a pitch count problem you have the bullpen fresher. [Then we have a day off] . . . and we know about Garza, but [Sonnanstine] has done consistently well this last month or so I don’t want to subtract Andy out of the mix either."
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Should be Beckett, Lester, Dice, Byrd. I don't know why they are not going to use Lester on regular rest. I thought they babied pitchers all season long so that they can ride them in October.
I have to question Francona here. Dice-K has had a generally strong season, and Beckett's post-season record speaks for itself, even after a disappointing performance Sunday. But Lester is clearly our number one right now, and I think it'd be better to use him to try to take one of the road games.
Then again, given how everything Francona does turns to gold, I'm sure he's got good reasons for this that I'm not seeing.
I have no idea what you are trying to say in the two sentences following the rotation list.
Much better to have Beckett/Lester in Games 1/2 and 5/6. With the current rotation as is, you're taking a big risk the series won't even see Lester twice.
I guess there wasn't a way to have Wake pitch in Tampa, which would have been preferred to him pitching in Boston
While this may not seem optimal at first, Francona is trying to cover two scenarios. If the Sox do well - say they get the W on Beckett and Lester's starts, then snag one of the two from Dice and Wake's first start - that sets up the chance to wrap it up in Fenway, with Dice, and then start the World Series with Lester & Beckett. If things don't go that well, we'll need to shut the door on game 6 and/or game 7, and that's when you need your dependables.
In the past, teams have tossed their ace games 1, 4 and tried game 7 when it is needed...and with mediocre results. This sets up a chance to set up the series if the Sox do well, and it covers them in case they do not. It will certainly mean Game 1 and 4 have a lot more riding on them than usual. Bring on the Rays!
Look at the track record. The Sox generally know what they're doing!
Greetings from an actual Rays fan in FL - congrats for making it this far. I look forward to a good series, but will stop short of wishing the Sox "good luck"!
As expected. I have no idea why there was so much debate about this by Sox fans.
Steady yourselves. Next up is the fact that Timlin will be on the roster.
"The order is not of primary importance." It will be if you lose in 5 games, and Beckett and Lester only pitched 2 of them! Why you would not pitch Beckett and Lester, your proven playoff pitchers, as much as you can, as early as you can, and instead are relying on the maddening Dice-K to keep the series going is beyond me. I hope Francona knows something the rest of us don't, because this rotation looks like one you'd set for a series in June, not the ALCS.
I hope Francona knows something the rest of us don't
Posted by Mike B October 8, 08 01:07 PM
I have a feeling he might know just a tad more than all of us. Just check out the bling on his fingers from those two World Series championships.
I feel Dice-K is a must for game one or two because of his success on the road. I would rather see Lester in game two than Beckett, although Beckett is possibly the best playoff pitcher of this era he has not been himself all year.
Love the logic and as Tito says, it is a 7 game series. Recall the last two LCS that we won were 7 games series. I like the idea of Lester pitching in game 7.
By the way, this is a typo. It is Angels, not Angles.
It is always amazing to see how many people know soooo much more than a guy who does this for a living....and does it quite well, actually. Sometimes Francona's decisions don't seem to make sense, but they always seem to work out. Chill out and enjoy the ride!
Well, at least the bullpen will be rested for game one - and it will need to be......
Because you have Becket and Lester, the very worse you will be is down 3-2 come game 6
Hey Nervous Nellies, relax. The Sox won it all in 2004 and are the defending champs. The Rays are a quality team and this will be a very tight series, but for the love of all things round with red seams, there is no reason to panic and start juggling the rotation! They will do what they've done the entire time under this regime: stick with what got them here. The track record speaks for itself.
Oh and while I'm at it, please look up the following stats (and their AL rankings) for Matsuzaka: Opponents batting average, team's record in games he starts, etc. He's a very good pitcher.
If the Sox win Game One, then they will have:
1. homefield advantage,
2. Lester and Beckett lined up for the following two games
3. Lester and Beckett lined up for 4 of the remaining possible 6 games
That will be a tremendous upper-hand. Period.
"Beckett is possibly the best playoff pitcher of this era he has not been himself all year."
Beckett showed up out of shape to spring training and has been paying the price ever since. Let's hope he can somehow revert to 2007 for a couple of starts.
All in all, having three front-line starters to choose from is a nice problem to have, don't you think? Win one in Tampa this weekend, and there WON'T BE a NEXT weekend....
why would you chance not pitching lester twice?
Much ado about nothing. This is the perfect set up, explained well by Francona.
You need four wins. Beckett and Lester will each pitchin in the first four, so the logic they are needed more than that doesn't make sense. Dice K starts on the road, where he's been great. Lester gets first start at home where he is unbeatable. Wakefield slides in nicely after the power of Lester to force the Rays to alter their swings.
You have to win 7, you don't panic. Gee, when did we see that work?? Uh, 2004 ALCS, and 2007 ALCS... so sounds like there's some precedent Francona is leaning on.
With Tom Brady out and a pending meltdown to the Rays, the only thing Boston fans will be able to do it to watch you tube clips of Kevin Garnett making his moronic "anything is possible" comment over and over again. As an outsider who could care less about baseball, it's so funny to think that the ego on your fans has ballooned quickly after a couple of championships.
why wouldn't you start lester who has been lights out thus far. Lester is the ace of this team right now!! If we are going to win this series, we need to start lester in game 1.
the sox need to shut them down in tampa, and win it in BOSTON!!!! that is a perfect pitching rotation.
- mike
nahant
"why would you chance not pitching lester twice? "
*******************************************************************************
Considering that its best 4 out of 7, unless you were planning on having Lester go in game 1 on 3 days rest, and then -- if TB was up 3-0--again on 3 days rest in Game 4, then there's ALWAYS the chance of Lester not picthing twice.
You have to win 4 games. Francona and Farrell certainly knwo the pitchers better than me.
Based on how the middle relief has performed I think you gotta go with your best pitchers first. You can always get an inning or two out of any pitcher in games 6 & 7. I would use:
1) Beckett
2) Lester
3) Dice K
4) Byrd
5)Beckett
6) Lester
7) Dice K
The only starter I would consider changing has a great record in the past against the Rays, Wakefield. Dice K has been unhittable on the road, Beckett should be his usual self in the post season with a start under his belt . Then we open up in Beantown with an absolute stud in Lester. If we have to go to a Game 7 at this point who else would you want to send to the hill but Lester!!! Francona, time and time again has made the right calls and I believe he has done so again!!!
Let's Go Sox!!!!
Take the series in 6 and Lester is ready to go for game 1 of the WS.
Game 1 is a must win for the Sox. If we win game one we have this series and Fran"coma" looks like a genius. If we lose game 1 and then throw a less than 100% Beckett out there for game 2 and we do not give him 4 runs we are in trouble. Bottom line is hitting. These Rays cannot slug it out with the sox. Ortiz needs to finally catch up to those grooved fastballs he is getting challenged with nightly. No more intentional walks for Papi the way he is hitting.
Give Dice, Beckett, Lester, and Wake 4 runs through 5 innings and we go to the WS.
I hope Becket is ok, aka not hurt! And he can pitch like himself, if not, it's going to be an uphill battle! However, one we can WIN! Why, because we are the SOX! GO SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
terry knows best. dice k on the road, lester at home. everyone rests a bit. bring on the rays!
I like the order.
Dice-K and Beckett are the Road Warriers, their stats are much better on the road, and Lester is almost unbeatable at Fenway.
Lester is 11-1 at Fenway this season, 5-5 on the road.
Listen to Rico P. Francona has, uh, been here before.
No, the order is not important. No matter how you shuffle things, you still only get Lester twice, Dice-K twice, and Beckett twice. With that in mind, the Francona plan preserves the rotation and rest for all of the top three starters.
Having Lester set up for game 7 not only puts him in position for a deciding game, but it also sets him up to pitch game 1 of the WS should the Sox advance.
This rotation makes perfect sense and once again our manager shows why he one of the best
I can live with this but if the Sox get eliminated in 5 they're going to look awfully dumb. IT'S THE POST SEASON. Stop worrying about hurt feelings.
Dice K needs to pitch on the road where he is far better than at the Fens
By Breakdown ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
Home 3.34 9 3 0 0 16 16 0 91.2 80 37 34 7 54 83 .236
Away 2.37 9 0 0 0 13 13 0 76.0 48 21 20 5 40 71 .178
The only real question was where to pitch Lester/Beckett. If you pitch lester 2 on normal rest, beckett will have had about 10 days rest which is far too but if you pitch lester at home you are taking him off his normal rest which might disrupt this amazing streak he has going for him!
Lets hope Tito and the gang can continue with their successes!!!!
Only Terry can could come up with the PERFECT rotation.. Excellent ROTATION
Only TERRY FRANCONA could come up with the most solid and perfect ROTATION...GREAT JOB skip.
Plain & simple...the fans need to stay out of all the conjecture and Monday morning "quarterbacking". Excuse the pun. This is what Tito & his staff are paid to do and I'm the first in line, as a staunch Red Sox fan of over 50 years, to say I've not been disappointed in their handling Red Sox matters. Just look at the success, sit back and enjoy...
I don't think we need to worry about setting the perfect lineup if such a thing existed. I trust Francona. Plus, Sox have an uncanny way of coming through whether by hook or by crook. So many different unlikely players pop up with the key plays at the key moments. It is like magic!
Will everyone STFU. Nothing worse than a bunch of whiners. The Sox rotation set is fine. Francona know more than you and has two rings, two series comebacks (one of them the greatest in sports history) and his "depleted" team just dismantled the best team in baseball. What more does the guy have to do to earn your trust. I dont live in Boston anymore, I'm in Seattle, but Im still a rabid sox fan since 1975. I pay attention to every game on mlb.com. The team here in Seattle sucks ass. You should be very thankful that you have the best team in baseball and one of the best managers. Things could be worse, you could have Charlie Manuel for a manager....that guy is an idiot. be thankful, Red Sox in 7.
Since 2004, Francona has made all the right moves. Unfortunately to all the naysayers and would be, wanna be managers out there, he is questioned because the Sox have not won every WS since Tito's tenure has started. Leave the man alone. If the Sox win he's a genius, if they lose he's a goat, BUT he will take it like a man.
Rotation does not matter. The Sox will win. It will be a somewhat tough series but no way no how can the Rays beat the Sox. Sox in a tough 6 game series
can't question tito people...the man knows what he's doing....deep breaths and enjoy the ride...sox in 6
Say Dice-K loses twice, Becket wins once and loses once, and Wakefield loses once. Does it matter if Lester has started twice or not? No, either way the Sox lose. It doesn't make any difference if they lose in 7 or lose in 6.
The things I see mattering: whoever's after Dice-K is probably starting with a tired bullpen; which park each pitcher pitches in (but that's just that #2 pitches twice away); if the Sox get a big lead, the Rays may get intimidated and play worse. If the Sox win the series in less than 7, they can decide how to exercise before the WS.
The way the Sox and the Rays played each other this year, the odds are high that this series is going six possibly seven games. So, I think the the logic is solid. You want the strength of your staff anchoring the back end of the rotation. Right now that strength is Lester, Beckett, & Dice-K in that order. I'd want to give Lester a little extra rest and go with the fact he's been so tough at home. Dice-K has been better on the road and Beckett needs a little extra rest but not too much. I like the order. You'll see. The Sox take one of two in Tampa, then two of three in Boston and then one of the last two in Tampa. I'll take the Sox in six.
Daisuke Matsusaka – 2008: 9 wins, 0 losses, 2.37 on the road; 1 - 0, 1.80 ERA at the Trop
Josh Beckett – 2008: 0 - 1, 1.20 ERA @ the Trop, 2 - 0, 2.70 ERA vs. Rays @ Fenway, 0 - 2, 3.20 on turf; Career: 6 -2, 2.09 ERA in the post-season (3 - 0, 2.70 in LCS)
Jon Lester – 2008: 11 wins, 1 loss, 2.49 ERA @ Fenway; 0 - 3 on turf; 3 - 0, 0.90 @ Fenway vs. Rays
Tim Wakefield – 2008: 0 – 3, 7.13 on turf, 0 – 2, 5.87 at the Trop
Paul Byrd – Hasn’t faced the Rays in 2008
Okay, ‘nuf ced? So, quit you’re complaining! Whiners!
Clearly this one is a gamble. Dice-K can be scary with his pitching and Beckett holds the only post season loss this year with a less than stellar game. We need to take one in TB and this is the highest risk lineup to achieve that. This also puts Beckett in two games before Lester.
It's so funny to see people questioning the most successful red sox manager in our lifetime. 2 WS and a good chance at another one. I think Francona knows a little bit more about pitching rotations than any of us.
The major problem here is that Lester isn't slated to go twice unless it gets to Game 7. A Game 2, and possible Game 6 start would have been ideal. Think about the possible scenarios going into a Game 6: either the Sox are up 3-2, or down 2-3, so the Game 2 pitcher will either face a must win to avoid elimination or will be faced with an opportunity to close out the series. I'm convinced Lester would have been best utilized with a Game 2 start, look at his numbers against the Rays this season:
3GS, 3W, 20IP, 19K, 6BB, 0.90ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .240BAA
Why wouldn't you want that going twice, EARLY in the series?
Beck's numbers against TB are incredibly similiar to Lester's, but after his last start and with Lester's September numbers being better as well as his dominant ALDS, I don't understand the rationale here.
Hey, Becket is hurt and we can't rely on him to give us a quality start in game 2. Hell there's a chance his season may be over after his next start. It appears that the Sox will go as far as Lester can carry them this post -season. The smart play is to start him in game 2 on 5 days rest, and not worry about anybody's hurt feelings.
Matsuzaka in game 1 is without question the right move. However (and forgive me for questioning our beloved manager), Lester should start in game 2 in my opinion because he is obviously our best pitcher and he would be on normal rest. Beckett isn't quite himself right now and I would think any extra rest he could get would help him, but maybe that's not the case. On the plus side, if you pitch Lester in game 3 and we win in 6...then you have him to start game 1 of the World Series in Boston! Either way....GO SOX!
"Sometimes Francona's decisions don't seem to make sense, but they always seem to work out."
That's what they used to say about Casey Stengel, BTW.
Tito makes good points and when you factor in that Beckett isn't going to have the ability to go 3 in this series, should it go 7; makes even more sense. I also agree with those who wondered why Wakefield isn't pitching at the Trop when he's had so much success there most of his career. For those wondering why its Wake over Byrd, he's added insurance if Beckett is hurting and needs to come out or miss a start.
As a Pirate fan who is enjoying my first taste of post season since 1992 watching Bay and a great Sox club, just want you to know how appreciative it is watching and rooting for a team that plays 100 % every night out. That has something to do with the manager and the team chemistry. After suffering through the wretched Pirate debacle, can't tell you how much fun this is. Love this team and thrilled J Bay is big part of it. Saw what Manny was doing, rather what he was NOt doing running the bases ,and undermining this team prior to the trade. I honestly thought the Sox would prevail against the Halos and they will find a way vs the Rays. Sox in 6.
i think tito should be fired after posting this line up. yeah we've won in 2004 and 2007 but i know a thing or two about a thing or two and this is rotation is nonsense. lester for 1,4,7 and beckett for 2,5 and dicey for 3
Take a look at Dice k's ERA at Tropicana. Francona is no fool. He can read.
Why does everyone dump on Dice K??? Sure his pitch count sails but he has a super low ERA and the Sox win more with him than any other pitcher. The problem though will be the middle relief. With him first they will be on the most rest and Tito will begin to see clearly how all of his pitchers (starters and pen) will need to be employed as the series unfolds. The best case scenario is Dice goes 7 in game 1. That could be a series changer. Do the Rays have good plate discipline???? This is the question.
LA_SoxFAn - I believe Francona was saying right in the section right after the rotation for the series was if he pitches Lester, Beckett, then Daisuke, Lester gets the exact 4 days rest preferred, and Beckett, would get 5 days, and Daisuke would get I believe 7 days, and the rhythm of the the staff would be way off, and letting them go in the same order as the last series gives all three pitchers relatively the same days rest.
OK it is really easy.
The problem: People say "what if the Red Sox lose in 5, Lester only pitches once."
Ok if they lose in 5 then after four games they would have been down 3-1 and then lost in game 5 with Dice-K pitching. So Dice-K takes the L and people are upset because Lester only made one start.
However Dice-K and Lester were switched and Lester WINS game 5, then they are down 3-2. But Dice-K STILL HAS TO PITCH. So if he loses in game 6 then it wouldn't have mattered if Lester had gone or not, the result is a series loss either way.
That is Francona's logic -- the top 3 starters will pitch twice either way if it goes to seven games. If Dice-K has an equal chance to stink it up then he will do so in game 5 or game 6. Or else we win in 5 and no one is complaining.
the rotation is great, dont over think it......
If the Sox split in tampa this will prove to be a good decision, if not then not so much.
Wakefield will get beaten by 8 to 10 runs. He is at his best throwing in an "over fifty" men's slow pitch softball game not a professional baseball game. Time for a front office job. Wake must have some sort of hold over Terry to make this line up.
wake has done a great job for the sox over the years ....im glad hes getting a start
I have faith in all four starters. Let's enjoy the ride. Go Sox!
Wake will either get beaten by 8 to 10 runs, or he'll pitch a 5-hit shutout. You never know with Wake.
Don't ever sell Wake short. Look at his record.
Leaving Lester to Game 3 and 7 is a mistake. The Rays will be tough at home, it may too little too late! Go Rays!
told you we didn't need schilling...remember?
told you we didn't need schilling...remember?
Well, we don't need CURT SCHILLING because he is a BIG LOSER! We should let Tampa Bay win the AL Champion.. Let's it go.. Enough is Enough! Boston Red Sox must lose all the way... The Red Sox suck!
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