Today's Q&A with Adam Kilgore

The Globe's Adam Kilgore checked in earlier today to answer your questions about tonight's Game 5 of the ALCS at Fenway Park. Here's a transcript:

Adam Kilgore: You're looking ... LIVE! at Espresso Royale Cafe, walking distance from Fenway Park, where the Red Sox will try to stave off elimination tonight in Game 5 of the ALCS. The Red Sox pulled off this exact comeback last season, but things seem much, much more grim this time around, and the Rays seem much, much more dangerous that the Indians a year ago. Plus, potential Games 6 and 7 will be on the road. Would you agree? There is plenty else to talk about, so let's get to it.

denver_soxfan: Hi Adam, when do you think Ortiz is going to realize that, instead of his routine popups, he should be bunting down the third base line and trying to get on base any way possible? He's got Youk and Bay hitting behind him, why not let them play the role of the producer (s), since it's evident that he can't get it done this postseason?

Adam Kilgore: I think this is a fantastic point, denver_soxfan. Carlos Pena did this with success in Game 3. Aside from the triple that ultimately meant nothing late in Game 4, Ortiz has looked utterly lost at the plate and his best contribution has been his four walks in the series. Well, bunting that ball down the line is as good as a walk. Ortiz is a proud man, and he probably views bunting as a more-than-tacit admission his power has diminished. It may be time for him to swallow that pride and let Youkilis take a whack at a multi-run homer.

NoSeriesforManny: I know I'm getting ahead here, but if the Rays beat the Sox and go on to beat the Phillies, that will be three expansion teams that will have won the world series in a 3 year period (Arizona, Florida, and Tampa). Do you think expansion teams had unfair advantages over established teams, or is it all about management?

Adam Kilgore: That would actually be an eight-year period, but your point is well-taken. And don't forget the Colorado Rockies made the World Series last year. Anyway, I don't think the expansion teams had any unfair advantage. They've been run well. In Tampa's case, they've drafted well (and played poorly enough to pick excellent players year after year).

bryll: Adam: Reading the papers you get the Red Sox party line on Josh Beckett, but have you heard what is really affecting him, and how bad it is? Thanks

Adam Kilgore: This has been a well-guarded secret, but as Tony Massarotti reported, Beckett did need a cortisone injection, which means his injury is certainly serious. Really, no matter what he and the Red Sox say, all you have to do is watch him pitch. His fastball has lost three-five miles per hour. His curveball is just sort of flipping up there. He can't make anyone swing and miss. He's not the same pitcher at all.

Ronnie: Hey Adam ... I think Joe Maddon made a big mistake by pitching Kazmir tonight. The Rays had a chance to step on the Sox' throats and they didn't do it. Now, I see the series going Boston's way after they pound Kaz tonight and get their confidence back. Do you agree?

Adam Kilgore: I'm not sure where I come down on the move. I agree with your point that the Rays should not be conceding this game, that giving the Red Sox, a clearly wounded team with a track record of recovering deficits like the one they now face, any signs of life is huge mistake. However, there's also reason to believe the move gives the Rays their best chance to win. The Fenway Park splits are pretty severe -- Kazmir has a 3.02 ERA at Fenway, and Shields has a 10.13 ERA there. The move smacks of over-managing and unnecessary panic, but Maddon explained yesterday that he expected to do this all along. So I see both sides. It's a bold move, because if the Red Sox came back to win the series without the pitching change, no one would have said word one about Maddon. Now, it's on him. Ultimately, I would have pitched Shields: He's your best pitcher. Let him try to go win the series.

keephopealive33: Would you agree that Dice-K MUST stop TB in the first inning

Adam Kilgore: More so, I would say Kazmir MUST stop the Red Sox in the first inning. He has been terrible early lately. But, yes, Matsuzaka has got to cool off the Rays early, too, to avoid another sullen Fenway Park and get the Red Sox settled down a bit.

MannyBeingAboutMoney: Hey now that my season in LA is over, can I come back and play with you guys? I mean, you still paying me, right?

Adam Kilgore: Ha! I guess now we won't have a World Series where one team is paying both left fielders.

Snerrick: Hi Adam. What are the pros/cons of Francona using an "experimental" lineup in an elimination game (ex, batting Drew leadoff) as opposed to sticking with what has worked to this point? Also (can't resist), do you know if Big Poopi will wear his adult diaper tonight? Thank you.

Adam Kilgore: A tad harsh and gross on Ortiz, no? The pros are that, in that case, Drew can get on base better than any Red Sox player and they needed something to change at the top of the lineup. The main con, I think, is that Francona is telling the team, "I don't think we can win with our usual lineup, so I'm going to do something desperate." At this point, desperation is necessary. I thought the lineup change was a good move.

steve: Adam, did loyalty to Tim Wakefield hurt the Sox in Game 4? I felt from the very start that Paul Byrd (considering his success in the playoffs last year) would be a much more viable option at #4. And considering Wake's splits in cold weather and against this Rays lineup this year, it seems like it would have made more sense to put Wake in the pen. Thoughts?

Adam Kilgore: Terry Francona is loyal to Wakefield, but the decision to start him was not made out of loyalty. Wakefield started because the complications of bringing in Kevin Cash midgame would have limited Francona's ability to maneuver late in the game. Paul Byrd is sort of like a backup quarterback of a struggling football team at this point -- the thought of what he can do has surpassed the reality of what he can do, because all we see is the other guy playing poorly. I mean, it's Paul Byrd. A nice back-of-the-rotation guy, but by no means a slam dunk in terms of being better than Wakefield. Byrd pitched in Game 3 and got hammered. The problem with the series is not Wakefield over Byrd; it's Beckett and Lester getting shelled.

HMW1961: If Dice-K gets rocked early ala Wake's performance (?) the other night, who would be the long reliever that Tito would turn to?

Adam Kilgore: Paul Byrd should be able to go. He threw a few innings the other day. Francona might also turn to his top-line relievers early. Anything and everything will be brought out to win this game. Bringing in the long man is sort of managing a loss; the Red Sox, of course, can't afford that tonight. You'd probably see Masterson, like in Game 4.

yazman: Do you think Ellsbury will be back in there tonight? And Drew in right?

Adam Kilgore: Good question. Francona didn't offer any clues to his lineup yesterday. My guess is Ellsbury will be back in there. Even though he went 0 for 6 in Game 2 when Kazmir started, Ellsbury is 4 for 14 against him career. Coco Crisp is 9 for 30, and Drew is 1 for 7. So I would say it's possible we see Ellsbury in right, Crisp in center, and Drew on the bench as a dangerous late-game pinch-hitting option.

soxx: Will the sox move lester up for game 6 and if so, who goes in game 7, josh is not up to it in his condition

Adam Kilgore: Francona has said Beckett will pitch Game 6. He could change his mind, given the urgency of the situation and Beckett's complete ineffectiveness.

soxdun: when is francona going to realize that papi is getting nothing to hit and shuffle the lineup? bay is a natural cleanup hitter and the hottest hitter on the team yet he is in the six slot. why not Pedroia, youk, papi, bay, drew...get your best hitters the most at bats?

Adam Kilgore: Part of this may have to do with Ortiz's attitude and the respect Francona has for him. Moving him down in the lineup may seem like an act of betrayal to Ortiz. Moreso, Francona has repeatedly said he believes Ortiz is one swing away from jacking a three-run homer and reclaiming his spot as a middle-of-the-lineup threat. To me, he looks near hopeless right now.

Gmoney: What are the chance that Tek is wearing a Red Sox uniform next season? Less than 10%? He is no longer a contributing member of the team and while everyone loves his goatee he must go.

Adam Kilgore: My guess is he will sign a short-term contract with the Red Sox. It's a bad year to need a catcher, not much of a market. For readily available guys, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Gerald Laird are the big catches.

StPeteTransplant: Will a cold, wet Fenway be a disadvantage to a team used to playing indoors?

Adam Kilgore: Honestly, who knows? Could be. They're calling for showers tonight. Here's the weather.com hour-by-hour forecast.

Brian: Do the Sox have a chance?

Adam Kilgore: Of course. A good one? No. This team is beat up and looking old. The Red Sox have done this before, but not THESE Red Sox, and not in their current condition, with a diminished Ortiz, Varitek, Beckett, no Lowell, etc. Plus the final two games are not at Fenway. All that being said, stranger things have happened than Dice-K, Beckett, and Lester winning back-to-back-to-back.

the_guru: Do you think the sox bats will wake up tonight do to the pitching change on tampa's side

Adam Kilgore: The only two pitchers the Red Sox have had much success against this series are Kazmir and Balfour, which is a good argument why Maddon should have stuck with Shields -- why risk waking up a sleeping giant? It's hard to project, but yes, seeing Kazmir, a guy they've pummeled lately, on the mound may get the Red Sox feeling comfortable again at the plate.

LSCII: With Papi struggling, can we all now agree that Youk just doesn't provide the protection for him in the line up that Manny did?

Adam Kilgore: That's obvious -- no hitter on this big, green planet other than Albert Pujols could provide the same protection as Manny Ramirez did for Ortiz. In no way should that be a knock on Youkilis. He's been the Red Sox' best player this series and, I would argue, this season. All he does is slug and get on base. And play great defense at first and above-average at third.

Bonnaroo_Boy: I noticed you were a rocking a light black jacket last night, very similar to Joe Maddon's -- but obviously cheaper. Are you now so enamored of the Rays' manager that you feel it necessary to dress like him?

pennstate_soxfan: Hey Adam, what's your take on Ellsbury's struggles and will he be in the line-up?

Adam Kilgore: He's letting fastballs get too deep before he starts his swing, which is a sign he's just not seeing the ball all that. He was hitting for more power in September than he had his whole career; it stands to reason the slight, slight change he made to his swing then allowed scouts to find a hole in his swing. That's speculative, but it makes sense. Ellsbury is a streak hitter, good or bad, so the timing now is awful. Just two weeks ago, he was the Red Sox' hottest hitter. That's how it's been all year with him. My guess is he will be in the lineup, because it makes sense to sit Drew against Kazmir and use him as a pinch hitter.

HMW1961: What is the hypothetical number of runs that Dice-K must hold the Rays to in order to secure a victory? And a follow up, what is the number of runs that the predicted lineup might be able to produce against Scott Kazmir?

Adam Kilgore: If I had the capacity to predict this correctly, I would not be a sportswriter for a living. if you'd like a pick for the game, I'll say Red Sox 6, Rays 4. Complete guess.

gouconn13: Do you think that Tito wished that he start Lester for game #2 where Lester could prevent Rays to build up their moment?? Ever since Beckett got bombed, Rays have been hitting very well

Adam Kilgore: Given that the Rays crushed Lester, too, probably not. I think the extra day, if anything, could have only helped Lester, who suddenly seems as if that monster inning total is catching up to him.

Rice4Hall: Adam - I am actually more optimistic about this comeback than I was when the team was down 3-1 to NY or to Cleveland. While I do fear Garza, I don't Kazmir or Shields, and certainly not as much as carmona and Sabathia last year. Do you see the Sox changing any offensive philosophy in attacking Shields and Garza for 6 and 7 if they get that far?

Adam Kilgore: No, I don't think they'll change their overall philosophy. They will try to have better at-bats, certainly. Also, I'd say the reasons the Sox have a worse chance of coming back this year than those has far more to do with them than their opponent.

Booma: Do you think Francona might go even further and play Cash or Casey in an attempt to generate some offense at the bottom of the order?

Adam Kilgore: Cash was asked if he expected to play tonight given Varitek's struggles; he responded, correctly, "that's ridiculous." Varitek, for better or worse, is the Red Sox catcher. Casey would not provide more offense than Mark Kotsay, who has been killing the ball. He's laced the ball on several of his outs this series. Casey is a Byrd-like backup QB favorite. But he's a singles hitter who can't run and play defense. His value is as a pinch hitter.

bobbybib: What's up with the extreme pessimism in your latest column? You're acting like it's 2003 again! That article kind of bummed me out, too much of a realist perspective and not enough idealist (idealist attitudes like Millar killed the curse in the first place)

Adam Kilgore: Sorry! I hope it didn't come off as extreme pessimism. Them's the facts.

soxdun: given beckett's health and wakefield's better performance in domes, wasn't the obvious move to pitch wake in game 2? lester and beckett could both have pitched 2 games on normal rest

Adam Kilgore: No. Why would you ever want your fourth-best pitcher throwing twice in a seven-game series?

soxx: y choice of lineup for tonight is: coco, dusty, drew, youk, papi, bay, casey, lowrie and cash. Comments?

Adam Kilgore: Varitek will definitely play; Drew is awful against Kazmir; I still don't understand the love for Casey. Great clubhouse guy, professional hitter, all that ... but do you really think Sean Casey, at this stage of his career, is a starting first baseman on a World Series team? And what has Mark Kotsay done to make anyone think he shouldn't be playing?

orlando_soxfan: Other than Kazmir, any word on interesting lineup adjustments from either team?

Adam Kilgore: Check back at about 3, 3:30. We'll have the lineups on Extra Bases, then, and at about 5 we'll have Terry Francona's explanations, if any are needed.

Brendan: Are we totally reaching here, or isn't it somewhat encouraging that the Sox put together a couple good offensive innings at the end of Game 4? It had been two straight games of torture up to that point.

Adam Kilgore: Might be reaching. That was a point in the game where Andy Sonnanstine made simply throwing strikes and making the Sox earn their way back into the a priority. But, you never know. One good swing can get a guy feeling, and that may carry over. If Kazmir is locating his fastball and throwing the filthy slider at the feet of right-handers, the carryover effect will be null.

OldElvis: Does Manny really get a long term contract ( >3 years) when all he did was whine multiple times about wanting to leave Boston? Do other teams really overlook that?

Adam Kilgore: All he needs is one owner to agree to it, and Scott Boras knows how to get to owners. Nothing would surprise me with Ramirez's contract.

orlando_soxfan: I'll admit I called it quits and changed the channel when the rays went up 11-1, but what was with folks leaving the stadium in the eighth in an ALCS game? I've never seen anything like that from fans at fenway. I'm hoping it was season ticket holders going home to get their rest for tonight.

Adam Kilgore: The lack of noise, buzz, energy, whatever in Fenway Park this series has been astonishing. Part of that comes from the fact that the Sox have gotten their brains beat in from jump street in both games. But, when the Sox kept taking leads at Tropicana Field in Game 2, the crowd only kept getting louder, not sitting on its hands. Complaceny may be setting in. Or average (read: passionate, knowledgeable, and vocal) fans are being priced out in the playoffs.

YorkMaineSoxFan: Assuming our starting pitching shows up, how much run support do our bats need to give them? How important will it be to get the bats going early?

Adam Kilgore: Hey, a question from York, Maine! Now we're talking! (I grew up in York.) The idea of "getting the bats going early" usually doesn't mean too much to me aside from the runs produced, but it might be very important this game. It would mean, perhaps, that Ellsbury and Ortiz finally did something, and it would allow the Red Sox to attain a more firm belief they can comeback. How much run support? As much as possible.

RiceHOF09: To expand on the comment regarding Papi earlier, doesn't he owe it to the Sox to get on anyway possible, especially when trailing as they have been for the last two games of the series?

Adam Kilgore: Yes.

Rice4Hall: Adam - shouldn't Youk hit 3rd and Ortiz 4th? Conventional wisdom puts the better on-base hitter in the 3 slot and the cleanup being the pure power hitter. Or would papi not feel "comfortable" in the 3 hole?

Adam Kilgore: I think changing that right now would smack of desperation. Plus, you want to protect Ortiz with your best hitter, and that's Youkilis.

teddy_sizemore: the hometown nine. WE Believe these Bosox are gamers & this series WILL go back

Adam Kilgore: One fan's opinion. Nice sentiment.

Adam Kilgore: And on that happy note, our time here is up. Thanks much for all the excellent questions. There are still some great ones left, and I'm sorry if I didn't get to yours. If you have any questions, please e-mail me at akilgore@globe.com. Enjoy the game and stay dry.