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Virtual Ray-ality?

Posted by Chris Forsberg, Boston.com Staff October 9, 2008 10:14 AM

In advance of the 2008 American League Championship Series, which opens Friday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., Boston.com ran a simulation using 2K Sport's MLB 2K8 on the xBox 360 console to see how a virtual series might play out. Click on the video above to watch highlights from Game 1, which featured the Rays rallying from an early deficit behind a three-run seventh inning outburst to emerge with a 3-1 triumph over the Boston Red Sox.

How did the rest of the series play out? Follow the "full entry" link below to find out.

Despite stacking up 10 hits in Game 1, the Red Sox settled for their lone run on a second-inning homer by Jason Bay. With one out, Bay jumped on a changeup and sent it careening off the foul pole in left field for a 1-0 advantage.

Daisuke Matsuzaka carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning (Cliff Floyd broke it up with a two-out, opposite-field double to left) and a shutout into the seventh before encountering turbulence. Loading the bases (Hey, this thing really is lifelike!) with one out in the bottom of the seventh, Matsuzaka surrendered a sacrifice fly to Carlos Pena, allowing the Rays to tie the game. Rookie Evan Longoria followed with a two-out shot to the gap in right-center, plating Akinori Iwamura and B.J. Upton to put Tampa Bay on top, 3-1.

James Shields worked 7 1/3 innings, scattering eight hits and striking out seven. He fanned his last batter of the night -- David Ortiz -- before Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell bridged the gap to closer Troy Percival.

The Sox had a chance to tie the game in the ninth as singles by Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie (team-high three hits) put runners on the corners with two outs, but Jason Varitek flied to right to end the game.

The rest of the ALCS didn't get much better for the Sox.

The Rays took both games at Tropicana Field, but Boston rebounded at Fenway Park with back-to-back wins in Game 3 and 4 from Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield to even the series.

Tampa Bay roughed up Matszuaka in Game 5 and ultimately closed out the series with a win at home in Game 6 (with Beckett as the Sox' starter). The Rays won the best-of-seven series, 4 games to 2, and advanced to the World Series.

How we did it: With permission from 2K Sports, Boston.com video game junkie Chris Forsberg set up a simulation between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays on the xBox 360 console. The latest rosters were downloaded from 2K Sports' servers and all pertinent changes were made to each team's roster (including lining up the proper rotations for the playoffs).

The xBox 360 version allows a computer vs. computer option, so a human player did not control a team at any time. Only one single simulation was attempted per game in the best-of-seven series and footage was recorded for inclusion online. Additional simulations could produce different results.

Want more?: Check out our Patriots' posteason simulations utilizing EA Sports' Madden 2008, including our take on Super Bowl XL II (Hint: It turned out better for Pats' fans than the actual Super Bowl). You can also watch our Celtics-Lakers simulation, that accurately predicted the Green would capture banner No. 17 this past June.

13 comments so far...
  1. Not gonna happen. I can't believe people play that junk, might as well be making predictions over a round of Ms. Pac Man.

    Posted by alex October 9, 08 11:00 AM
  1. the stands are half full just like real life

    Posted by Jason October 9, 08 11:27 AM
  1. These exercises are so bloody lame -- why do you even bother with them (other than to pander to the video game crowd)? I'll be the simulation would have said Angels in 4 in the ALDS... and look where that got LAA -- they're playing golf this weekend while the Sox are in Tampa.

    I give Tampa Bay lots of credit -- they are a young and exciting team. Actually, from my perspective, they are a year late (I predicted they would begin ascending the AL East LAST year). But they are, inexperienced. The beat a VERY mediocre White Sox team and their pitching started showing chinks in the armor.

    Sorry, Tampa, wait til next year. You can see my analysis at www.sox1fan.com

    Posted by SOX1FAN October 9, 08 11:57 AM
  1. Oh well, why even bother playing for real...

    Posted by JoshyR October 9, 08 12:28 PM
  1. It's a good thing I beat the Rays in Grand Theft Auto IV

    Posted by Showtime October 9, 08 12:30 PM
  1. Where the $@*% is the "full entry" link ???

    Boston.com's response

    The full entry link is only shown when you arrive from the main blog page. If you're accessing just this entry, you'll see the entire text.

    Posted by Chris October 9, 08 01:20 PM
  1. Does Manny in a Red Sox uniform jog to first base in the video game?

    Posted by The Wanderer October 9, 08 01:53 PM
  1. aint this the same engine that said NE was going to beat NYG by 14 points in the superbowl... and Moss was going to have a TD for 87 yards??? yeah i thought so...

    Posted by mjs October 9, 08 02:26 PM
  1. To quote Chris Berman "That's... why... they play the games".

    Posted by Char Datr October 9, 08 02:33 PM
  1. Uh, guys the full link appears to be absent.
    I am afraid that Dice will be wild Friday, since he does not put two good outings together very often. Now would be a good time for that.

    Posted by Peter Benham October 9, 08 05:14 PM
  1. "the stands are half full just like real life"

    ROFL

    I agree with the game: it's hard to see the Sox winning this series. Mainly because Lester isn't pitching game one, and that stems from Francona leaving Beckett in an inning too long and losing Game 3 against the Angels. With Lester in game one, the Sox could have stolen this series. As things stand, I fear for them.

    I'd love to be wrong, especially since a Boston-Dodgers (or, as we like to call them, Red Sox West) matchup offers such drama. Perhaps we could get THAT in simulation form, as compensation for our pain?

    Posted by Mister Snitch October 9, 08 08:21 PM
  1. The simulation was obviously unrealistic as Dice-K was pitching in the 7th inning. That almost never happens. Though loading the bases was accurate.

    Posted by Doug October 10, 08 04:00 PM
  1. Just how silly is this simulation? Troy Percival is on the roster. Isn't he NOT on the roster? I mean, it would be nice if the simulation were at least played to standards, especially since all the current rosters were downloaded, and the pitching staff arranged to lineup properly...
    Plus, the real game just ended, and Dice-K did indeed pitch into the seventh, pitched beautifully, (no hitter thru 5) and the Sox won, 2-0.
    This is the Post Season. The Sox were built for the Post Season.
    Sox in 5. Go Sox.

    Posted by SithLordSlayer October 11, 08 01:45 AM
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