What are the chances?
The Red Sox tonight can complete a more remarkable feat than they did in the 2004 ALCS, when they came back from down three games to none against the New York Yankees. Think about that. If you disagree with that claim – and understanding the emotions and memories from those games, there’s reason you would – consider the following.
When Kevin Millar came to bat against Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth in Game 4, the Red Sox, from a purely statistical standpoint, had a 2.4 percent chance to win the series, according to the folks at CoolStandings.com.
“Back in 2004, coolstandings.com wasn't around so for simplicity I'll assume each team had a 50/50 shot of winning each game,” wrote Greg Agami, the man who runs the web site and makes the numbers work, in an e-mail. “That would mean that at the beginning of Game 4, with the Sox down 3-0, the Sox had about a 1/16 chance of winning 4 straight games to win the ALCS.
“That works out to 6.25%. And at the start of the 9th inning of Game 4, before Millar walked to setup the Roberts steal, the Sox had an 18.8% chance of winning the game, based on data from 1977 to 2004. So at that point, they would have had a 2.4% chance of winning the ALCS (multiplying 6.25% by 18.8%) - about one in 40.”
One in 40. And they did it. Now consider this series. When Grant Balfour entered the game in the bottom of the seventh inning in Game 5, the Red Sox trailed 7-0.
“In that situation, with the home team down by 7 runs, only 0.6% of all teams between 1977 and 2006 have come back to win the game,” Agami writes. On Friday, “coolstandings.com gave the Sox a 22% chance of winning the next two games in a row, so that would mean that when Balfour entered the game the Sox had a 0.1% chance of winning the ALCS (multiplying 0.6% by 22%) - about one in 1,000.”
At 10:57 p.m. Thursday, the Red Sox had a 1 in 1,000 chance to win the ALCS. Now they’re nine innings away, and they have already thrown some of the final shovelfuls of dirt on the Tampa Bay Rays’ season.
Now, there are plenty of ways to attack those figures – they don’t into account momentum, experience, and intangibles of that sort. But it makes perfect sense logically, and it puts in perspective how unbelievable these past four days have been.
And there’s still one more game left. Jon Lester vs. Matt Garza. 8:07 p.m. Let’s hope TBS gets those routers cranked up.
Take those statistics and put them...because you can't measure heart and determination!
Hmm your conclusion sounds right but it's not accurate to explain "(multiplying 6.25% by 18.8%)" because that does not equal 2.4%.
You are likely double counting Game 4. If they had a 18.8% chance of winning Game 4 then they would have already won Game 4 and only needed to win THREE more games at 50% which is 1/8 chance or 12.5% chance. So you multiply 12.5% by 18.8% and THAT's 2.4%.
Nope....sorry, but nothing tops 2004 because #1, it was the Yankees, #2 it broke the long drought, and it came 1 scant year after Aaron FN Boone....statistics don't always tell the whole story....stat geeks in lab coats only crunch numbers, which do not represent the entire picture
No matter what happens, nothing will beat '04. To do it against the Yankees was just amazing. But winning tonight would be quite the accomplishment.
I think there's about 100 percent chance you and I are going to the Shamrock should they pull it out tonight
Very interesting. Although statistically speaking, it would be difficult to prove the teams have an equal chance of winning. To figure out the true odds, you would need to calculate the odds of each independant event from the 7th inning to the end of the game (ie. hitters' batting averages, pitchers' batting average against, and a number of other statistics). Possible, but very complex. Either way, I think we get the point....Boston had a slim chance of pulling it out!
The knee jerk reactions of some people are always predictable. No one is saying this comeback is more important or bigger than 2004; they're just saying statistically it's more improbable. Those are called facts.
Is this really worth the time? Any view of the value of any game or series is subjective and I think you'd be hard pressed to say beating the Rays comes close to the curse ending smack-down of the Yankees. It is hard to put 86 years and generations of animosity into "stats". This is an article for the fantasy stat geeks.
Let's talk about how the Sox need to GET TO THE RAYS PITCHING EARLY so the rest of the Rays start gripping and pressing their way to elimination.
The important thing here is that the folks at CoolStanding.com will benefit from free publicity, as many Sox fans will no doubt follow the link to a website that none of us ever heard of--or would otherwise have any interest in.
My question is: what is Adam Kilgore's interest in publicizing this company?
FROM ADAM: Absolutely none other than offering readers a different and what I hope is interesting point of view.
I agree...nothing will ever repeat 2004. EVER. IMPOSSIBLE.
#1: As previously stated. It was the Yankees.
#2: The Red Sox celebrated IN Yankee Stadium.
#3: They were 3 down and won four straight.
#4: Mutliple late-inning comebacks, multiple inning games to win lasting LATE into the New England night.
#5: This year's Sox team has fought, scrapped, faced injuries to starts, traded one of their most potent offensive threats (when he wanted to) and endured far more than the 2004 team that had its original five starters start all but a handfull of games.
"gets those routers cranked up"?
Typo, right?
Heck, I'll be happy if they can just keep the video on this time.
Statistics are simply mathematical formulas to support BS.
Tampa Bay shouldn't even %$#@! be here. Their entire season was a fluke and they will finish fourth in the AL East next year. You can bet the mortgage on that.
Sox over Phillies in 5
first off nothing in the sports world is ever, ever going to be better in anyway than the 2004 playoffs and the alcs comeback.
but this will be a very close second along with last year when we detroy the devil dogs tonight, they are showing their true colors
let's go red sox
In Tito we trust. The Manager continues to KNOW his team, and push all the buttons. Should be a great night...looking forward to Game 1 Wednesday night at Fenway against the Phillies. Keep the Faith!
While statistically that maybe true, 2004 must get top billing because (a) it came after the horror of 2003, (b) it came against the Yankees -- with the final two games in the Bronx, and (c) the subsequent World Series sweep was the team's first title in 86 years.
2007 was great and 2008 may be too, but nothing can match 2004. It's not good or bad. It just is.
As Samuel Clemens said, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
There is simply no comparison between the two, particularly when you take in consideration that coming back from 3-0 in a seven game series had NEVER been done before, nor since, where coming back from a 3-1 deficit has... and hopefully will again tonight.
Rays win in 7...Rays win World Series in 6...best sports story of 2008!!
GO RAYS!!! BEAT THE RED SOX!!! NEXT VICTIM - PHILLY!!!
I'll check these pages at midnight and listen to the crickets chirping in Red Sox Nation!
I'm SO pumped for tonight, my preperation? Watching the DVD set of the 2004 Sox playoff run (starting at game 4, of course). Go Sox!!!!!!
YOU DEVIL RAYS FANS ARE FAIRWEATHER FANS JUMPING ALL IN BANDWAGON, WHERE WE'RE YOU WHEN YOUR DEVIL RAYS ARE ALWAYS THE PERENNIAL LOSER?..YOU RAYS ARE SO PATHETIC....GO REDSOX BEAT THE CRAP OUT OF THE RAYS...SEE YOU PHILLIES IN FENWAY PARK ON WED...
Hey Rays Fan,
We don't mind you supporting your team. In fact we applaud you and the dozen or so other Rays fans in this country for at least paying attention. But do you have to sound like such yahoos? For goodness sakes root for your team, but have a little dignity. And while I'm at it - a question:
Exactly how many big games has "Big Game James" started? And exactly how many has he won? Just asking.
Should the sox win tonight...the ranking would be 04, 08 and 07
What were the odds in 1986 ALCS against the Angels in game 5, Sox were down to their last strike in the top of the ninth in Aneheim and down 3 games to one!
... and they lost.
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