Why not to worry
April lies. One month – let alone one week, which is what has elapsed in the Red Sox’ season – is an inadequate measure of a team. If the Red Sox were playing an NFL season, they would be about halfway through the third quarter of the first game. Maybe 2-5, Boston's worst seven-game mark since 1996, is unsettling, but there’s a good chance it’s a mirage.
First, there is one indicator that favors a turnaround. The Red Sox have a .250 batting average on balls put in play. (This means that if you take away home runs, sacrifices, and strikeouts, the Red Sox are batting .250.) The .250 mark is worst in the American League and better than only the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. The league average is .300. That means the Red Sox have run into some good defense, gotten unlucky, or both in relation to the rest of the majors.
The Red Sox have been built for a marathon. By the time June comes and attrition forces other team to wedge guys who should be in Triple A into their starting rotations, the Red Sox will be bulwarked by a fresh John Smoltz. Name another rotation where Clay Buchholz could have the spring he had and not make the roster. That advantage won’t be revealed in the standings for another 40 games or so.
And anyway, seven games is such a ridiculously small sample size to base any kind of conclusion on. Look at the seven-game records for every World Series champion since the strike:
2008 Phillies: 3-4
2007 Red Sox: 4-3
2006 Cardinals: 4-3
2005 White Sox: 5-2
2004 Red Sox: 4-3
2003 Marlins: 2-5
2002 Angels: 3-4
2001 Diamondbacks: 3-4
2000 Yankees: 4-3
1999 Yankees: 6-1
1998 Yankees: 3-4
1997 Marlins: 6-1
1996 Yankees: 4-3
1995 Braves: 6-1
Five of the past 11 World Champions failed to start better than .500 after a week’s worth of games, and only three post-strike champs had a start worth getting excited over. Would it be better if the Sox were hitting and Jon Lester was cruising through starts and they were in first place? Yes, of course. Would it really matter to the final outcome of this year if those things were the case? Probably not that much.
I’m not trying to ignore the fact that the Red Sox have played below expectations for the first week. And there most definitely comes a point when “It’s early” ceases to be a valid excuse. But Dustin Pedroia is not going to finish with a 52 OPS+, and Lester won’t have a 1.82 WHIP, and the Red Sox aren’t going to hit .180 with runners in scoring position, etc. You can go on and on. It's just too soon to worry.



Points well taken, but - Sox missed home field advantage by 2 games last year. In this division every game counts. They could win over 90 games and still miss the playoffs
I don't care what you say, every game is important in the AL East. Why do games at the end of the season count more so than at the beginning? A win is a win, they are all important.
I know it's a cliche, but the fact is, although you can't win a pennant in April, you sure can lose one.
It's not their record that bothers me as much as their body language on the field - not sure if it's arrogance or indifference coupled with mistakes that high school baseball players make and get benched for...
A marathon, blah, blah, blah. Listen, in a marathon if you fall a couple laps behind, if you're not Nigerian or Kenyan, you ain't gonna catch up. These games matter, don't fool yourself into thinking they don't.
Clay Buckholtz would be behind David Price on the Rays AAA roster as well. The Red Sox look just like they did at the end of last year, maybe a little older. Other than flipping Beckett being healthy and Lester looking overworked from last year's increase. Ellesbury is back to slapping weakly at the ball, Ortiz is overmatched and Dice-K likes to throw early and often. The trouble is the Rays look like last year, but slightly better.
Just got over a devastating bout of the flu. Slept through the first week of the baseball season. What a waste. Thought I'd check in on the Red Sox. Oh my God! Hysteria in Boston. Calm down folks, we are still in April, although looking at the scores, the Rays look terrific. It's only April 14. The season goes on for 162 games, and that includes injuries and other unexpected events like the tragedy that unfolded in LA killing a 22 year old Angels pitcher. Try meditation or deep breathing. The whole Nation needs to chill out.
The fact that the Red Sox record is poor so far is OK. The fact that they look lethargic in the field is not OK.
"How's That 'Run-Prevention' Team instead of 'Run-Production' Team working out for ya', Theo ??" -- You touted it, pounding your chest after trading Manny last year.
Yeah, we don't need Manny !!
Yeah, right !!
David Ortiz said openly about "needing another big-bat in the lineup (a Big-Bopper)." - He was scolded by others "Only (1) person on this team thinks our lineup needs help (Youkilis spouts off), we are fine....and if he thinks we need help, he's wrong".
Really? Is He?
Nice Job Ruining the Red Sox Theo !!!!
We're doomed!!!!!!!
This article did not say the games don't matter (where did everybody get that from?) The article said it's too early to worry about the team...big difference people!!
Irishscot,
Name one Nigerian marathoner.
Exactly. You don't know much of anything about marathons, do you? I'm guessing you know just as little about baseball.
So, if we won't know for another 40 games if the Red Sox depth is better than everyone else's, does that mean if they get off to a 22-25 start that everything will be okay? Playing .500 ball in this division will not get you the division or even the wild card. Can't say it's not time to worry. It is. Everyone is struggling at this point. If it were only a select few that were struggling then I'd say things will turn around. But they've shown no signs of getting better. They need to start winning and playing well, or that depth they have that becomes so important in the middle and late season will be completely irrelevant.
If these games don't count as much, then why are the ticket prices the same as for games in September? Of course this team is better than their 2 and 5 record, but how much better? They look creaky.
Let's just put it this way: When you have to hope for the quick return of Julio Lugo, you know you're in trouble.
but will Youk hit 500?
I agree with David every game counts a loss in april counts as much as a loss in september. we finished 2 games behind tampa last year that means every game counts not just the ones from july to october
I agree that it is too early to hit the panic button, but the fact of the matter is that in the fourteen years you list as examples only SEVEN out of 112 teams to go to the playoffs have had starts of 2-5 or worse. And, as your list demonstrates clearly, only the Marlins won the World Series after starting 2-5.
2-5 isn't merely "failing to start better than .500".
I just remember seeing NEW YORK at the bottom of the division on the green monster scoreboard last April. They never recovered from that horrible start. Our division is the toughest in baseball and with so many games to play against division rivals, there is too much leap frogging to do. If the team management does not believe that games in April are important, they should be scheduling KC, Texas, and Detroit in April, not Tampa and Baltimore and New York. The excuses sound like a lot of BS to me.
All games in the AL East are going to be important. So, they will need the wins come October. My problem with their record is not that they are 2-5, but that they look like they are still in spring training mode. Ortiz looks lost, Ells is not doing what he needs to to get on base. The only two that look good are Bay and Youk. Other than that they all look bad. Even with Tek's and Drew's homers aside. My question to the writer is, when do we worry, when the record is 4-14? 6-21? I mean shouldn't you worry when you are giving up single after single after single. That is how the A's and Angels are beating the Sox. With these rally's of single after single.
What? We shouldn't panic? Are you crazy, there is ONLY 155 games left; how will we ever catch up?
At least Chris Carter didn't have to pitch for us last night.
Your suggestion that a .250 batting average on balls put in play indicates the sox have either run into good defense or have been unlucky doesn't hold water. It could just as easily indicate that collectively the sox aren't getting good swings on the ball resulting in lazy fly balls and weak grounders.
I don't know why they didn't go after Abreu. JD Drew has a bad back. The kid they got from Tampa was an example of trying to "find" something for nothing. The low budget strategy, offensively, will hurt them. Tampa owns them.
I don't think the low batting average on balls put in play means they've been unlucky, I think it means they haven't hit the ball hard.
Don't worry. Theo is a genius.
I guess the thing that worries me the most is the fact that barely anyone has any patience at the plate. It is kind of like they are trying to prove, you guys were doubting our offensive power, lets show you. And I wish the point were more clearly given, we know the offense has changed. Just get to first base should be everyone's mindsight, not tying the game with one swing.
I don't think there are many Nigerian marathoners. Ethiopian you meant perhaps?
The Sox will be fine. The point is every team fluctuates and they will turn it around soon....watch.
i agree with everyone for the most part... every game does matter especially in our division. but the fact of the matter is there 150+ games left. this team can easily go on win streaks of 10+ games. And in baseball youll face the rays for 3 games in a row and win all 3 you go from lets say 5 behind to 2 behind so its very easy to catch up in the standings very quickly. Our team is better than last year. No worries. Except in our SS position... i cant stand lugo and our defence is only gettin worse with him back.. i dont care how good he can supposedly hit he hasnt done it once since being here. With that i think ellsbury needs to step it up the most and start becoming a dominate lead off man.. thats just my opinion
ABSoxFan4Life apparently thinks the scheduling is done by each team, like in college football. Wouldn't that make life easier? The Sox could schedule games against The Alvarez Academy for Babysitting and Electric Fan Repair rather than those nasty Rays and Angels. Then they'd definitely start better than 2-5. Maybe even 3-4.
Things to note:
The sox are not in trouble yet but if they keep this up for long they could be in trouble.
The Sox also played the 2 best teams in the league (Possibly). Look at what the Rays did to NY (15-5) wow.
Papi needs a big bat behind him why not bay (31 HR) or Youkilis (29 HR)? I mean really Papi only had 35HR in 2007.
Right now Youkills, Bay and Jason are leading Boston with 2 HR each.. Papi should be leading this. Without Papi's bat we can't beat the Rays or win close games
"If the team management does not believe that games in April are important, they should be scheduling KC, Texas, and Detroit in April, not Tampa and Baltimore and New York."
Rather doubt that RS management get the option to choose their schedule. It's not like Theo and Larry are sitting around an apartment over beers and mapping out the playing schedules of the entire league. Wish that it were. That way they could schedule it so that the Rays and Yanks constantly have to fly from one coast to the other with no consecutive series within the same division. Wouldn't that be sweet?
Nice to hear my confident Boston Sports fans. Fact - the entire season is to get ready for the playoffs and nothing else matters. There are ups and downs in all sports, and the whole idea is to play your worse in the beginning and get better as the season passes. Great teams win when it matters and if the Sox are great, they will make up for it when it matters. I've listened to so much crap like the Celtics get a bad call against them in the first half and the other team gets 2 free throws, we lose by a point, and so many of you really believe that call was the reason we lost. NO it is not. The best teams find ways to win when it matters most. This is the first week or so, and we are maybe 3 games back inthe loss column and all you do is complain, even in the preseason. Get over it, and enjoy the games. It's early and we aren't in stride. And so many of the teams ahead of us will also have a slump sonn enough, and we will be back on top.
column. In football, all that matters is that you are playing your best football down the stretch and into the playoffs. So many of you
complain during the preseason
com[lain
This lineup is lethargic..... Watching the game is like watching a bunch of guys play "just to get the 9 innings over with"....
Where's the passion?
Where's the aggression?
2004 Hunger is Certainly Gone.
Maybe ownership should stare in the mirror and realize almost all true "sandlot-hardcore" players that were "Self-Proclaimed Idiots" and "HUNGRY TO PLAY & WIN" were let go....for this new corporate flyboy clubhouse image....and now a bunch of pansies (JD Drew) are here.
(Hey, JD Drew took 3 right down the middle in the 9th Inning, with the Game-Tying & Game-Winning Runs on-base....against Angels reliever/closer Fuentes. - Just like Manny did off Mo Rivera in 2008 -- Shouldn't we be calling JD Drew a quitter? And run him outta town, too?)
What A Joke !!
Take a look at the 1998 Yankees at 3-4 (same as the 2009 Yankees are now). That team won 114 games in the regular season. The Sox are a clutch hit in the last game against Tampa away from also being 3-4. They would then be 1 game below .500, which doesn't get people worried so much. Of course, as the year goes on they will have to actually win games instead of almost winning them. But the stats Tony Masserotti has up show how bad they've performed in the first week and that actually makes me feel better; this time will not hit .180 with RISP all year. Eventually they will play better than this. Will it be good enough? Who knows?
I do think Ortiz needs to move on and produce. He suggested all winter he'd get no protection without Manny in the lineup, but he's hitting .200 in front of a guy who's hitting over .500 with 5 extra base hits in 27 AB. That's on Ortiz, not a lack of protection from the No. 4 hitter.
Gain some perspective folks. Remember how bleak things looked during the Manny episodes in July last year? Things turned around in a hurry. In the end they were still only a healthy Josh Beckett away from a pennant and possible World Series. That's not to stay they are going to make it to the finish line with the current roster; but there is still an entire season to tamper with that and this organization certainly has the resources to turn things around.
I feel that if the redsoxs can make a trade for a big bat or some type of offensive catalyst they will be just fine because there pitching is too deep and will come around sooner or later but there offense is in my opinion too average.
I'm so tired of hearing everyone complain about not having Manny's bat
Bays Line at this point .286/2home runs/6 RBI's
Manny's .304/0 homeruns/ 4 RBI's
It is not time to panic the bats will come along, we need to get better starts out
of everyone not named Josh Beckett, and better batting out of everyone not named Youk. but it will get there. In Theo we trust.
If nobody gets to second base Ortiz is a traffic jam even if he gets on. He limits the options for the hitters who follow him. Few surprises from this lineup, lots of hard swings hitting to the same spots in the outfield they hit last year.
I ain't worried yet, but I AM a little concerned! It's like the whole team (with the exception of Youk and Bay) just woke up from hibernation. Spring training is over, c'mon!
Sportpocalpyse! We're doomed! I can't believe they've so maliciously duped us into caring and then crushing our hopes again. Everyone involved in this travesty is a dolt. Go Mariners! They're playing 700 ball and Ichiro is has an ulcer.
Sportpocalpyse! We're doomed! I can't believe they've so maliciously duped us into caring and then crushing our hopes again. Everyone involved in this travesty is a dolt. Go Mariners! They're playing 700 ball and Ichiro is has an ulcer.
HERE'S HOW IT WORKS FOLKS............JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY IS GOING TO WIN 60 GAMES AND LOSE AT LEAST 60 GAMES..............THAT'S 120.........IT'S THE OTHER 42 GAMES THAT WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE............LET'S HOPE THESE 5 ARE NOT PART OF THAT NUMBER.................BUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE IT'S CERTAINLY TOO EARLY AND SMALL OF A SAMPLE TO BASE ANYTHING ON THIS...............EXCEPT TO SAY, HOW SWEET THINGS WILL LOOK WHEN IT BEGINS HAPPENING THE OTHER WAY AROUND AND IT WILL............LOOK IT CAN ALWAYS BE WORSE.........0-7
Stupid Article. In Marathon, the Super Kenyans run every 100m in 18 seconds 422 times and finish all in 2 hr 5 min. You miss by 2 sec at the start, then your day is done in 2 min. You never catch them. You never see them again.
To run with top runners, you must have FANTASTIC START. Rays don't wait for us to catch up.
I agree with everybody.
Get a grip on reality people. It's ridiculous to worry now. Look at every year for the past 5 years (years in which they've made the playoffs and won World Series) and you will see at least one stretch in which the Red Sox have gone 2-5. In fact I defy you to find a single team in baseball during that time that hasn't had a stretch like this. It just happens to be coming out of the gate this year. This team won't panick and press exacerbating the situation. They're veterans and too smart to do that. Ellsbury won't hit .200 all year, we all know Pedroia has April woes and will ramp up in a week or two and the Sox pitching top to bottom will be outstanding when all is said and done. When the law of averages pans out this team will be in the hunt. Guaranteed.
The Sox have a tough schedule until about mid-May, then it gets much easier. If they're over .500 on May 15, they will have a good year. If they're close to .500 by that point, they should be pretty good and still have a good shot at the postseason.
They're going to have to play a lot better than they have been playing so far to be over .500 by mid-May though.
Sounds good, but you'll see.The Red Sox are doomed, due to poor management. The team has no spirit, no pzazz, but most importantly, no good hitters you can count on.
Thank you #33. You got it right. Yes, I'll get behind driving JD Drew out of town!
Francona has to wake up Ellsbury is not a good leadoff hitter. He lacks experience and should be batting sixth or seventh. He was to young last year and is still to young this year. Let him bat lower in the order and get his confidence back.
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