Drew and Ellsbury, a comparison
The Red Sox have a once and future leadoff hitter and a current leadoff hitter, and their approaches at the plate and styles on the field hardly could be more different. You have Jacoby Ellsbury, the jitterbug center fielder who crashes into walls and steals home and, when he is at the plate, wants to hack. You have J.D. Drew, the easy-does-it right fielder whose grace makes you want to yawn. Ellsbury acts. Drew waits. You know Ellsbury is there. You may have to squint to see Drew.*
Isn't it funny and fitting that, in that video linked above, Drew of all people stands at the plate, bat on his shoulder, and watches Ellsbury?
This is one reason why baseball is fun. They share the same outfield, and they both make their style work. Ellsbury, after going 1 for 2 with a homer yesterday, is now the Red Sox' leading hitter at .303. (Kevin Youkilis, hitting .222 since June began, is down to .301, and that’s potentially a topic for another day). Drew’s .384 on-base percentage is second on the team, behind Youkilis’s .423.
Maybe Drew and Ellsbury could learn from one another, but maybe they’ve become major league players because each knows what makes himself work. Ellsbury was moved down in the order because his on-base percentage did not match that of a typical leadoff hitter. While numbers show he is walking more – and he drew a walk yesterday for the winning RBI – Ellsbury steadfastly has maintained he has done nothing different since being moved down about 30 games ago.
“When I’m aggressive, I’m a better hitter,” Ellsbury said. “Everyone wants me to walk, but when they’re throwing me strikes, I can’t walk, so I’ve got to be aggressive in the zone. When you swing at good pitches, you get good results.
“When you’re too patient, too relaxed, they just get up in the count on you and you have to battle from there. That’s when you have weak groundballs in play and your at-bat is a lot tougher than it should be.”
That approach has led to one of Ellsbury’s most powerful stretches of his career. Since June 13, he has four of his five homers and has hit one every 17.25 at-bats, which ties for 20th in the American League over that span.
“He said he’s like Barry Bonds,” Dustin Pedroia said. “He’s a speed guy to start, then he’s going to turn into a power hitter.” (“I don’t know where he got that from,” Ellsbury said.)
While Ellsbury was hitting a home run yesterday, Drew extended his remarkable knack for passivity. In five plate appearances, Drew walked twice and struck out twice. He watched 24 pitches, and all but one mattered only to him and the pitcher.
Drew this season has accounted for one the highest Toothpick Ratios in the AL. A Toothpick Ratio is a personal term for the percentage of a hitter’s at-bats that would be unchanged if he had taken a toothpick to the plate rather than a bat – a strikeout or a walk. Drew has struck out or walked in 39.1 percent of his plate appearances this season, the fifth highest Toothpick Ratio in the AL. The top 10:
| Player▴ | K% | BB% | TPR | |
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | TPR |
| 10 | B.J. Upton | 25.2 | 11.8 | 37.3 |
| 9 | Jason Bay | 23 | 14.4 | 37.4 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | 21.6 | 16.1 | 37.7 |
| 6 | Jack Cust | 26.5 | 11.7 | 38.2 |
| 6 | Josh Fields | 28.4 | 9.4 | 38.2 |
| 5 | J.D. Drew | 23 | 16.1 | 39.1 |
| 4 | Russell Branyan | 28.1 | 11.9 | 40 |
| 3 | Jim Thome | 26 | 19.7 | 44.7 |
| 2 | Carlos Pena | 29.6 | 15.6 | 45.2 |
| 1 | Chris Davis | 41.2 | 6.1 | 47.3 |
Of the people on that list, the only two who seem to make looking at a lot of pitches a strategy are Drew, Thome, and Swisher. The others, to varying degrees, made this list more with a constant pattern of failure; Davis, it seems, falls into a walk every now and then on his way to another strikeout.
All of Drew’s called third strikes are maddening. Fans really, really hate it. You can tell in the park. But taking third strikes, in a way, is part of how Drew plays baseball. It’s not as fun to look at as Ellsbury’s way. People tend to favor action over inaction. But Drew’s style shares one thing with Ellsbury’s divergent strategy. It works.
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How does standing and watching a called third strike go by "work" for JD Drew, if there are runners in scoring position and 1 or 2 outs? Instead of putting the ball in play and possibly scoring a run or two, I can't see how it "works" for anyone to stand there and watch perhaps his one and only chance go by.
Carlson Pena is my favorite player
Because it is stupid to swing at pitches you don't like, that is how you develop bad habits and make weak contact. Drew goes to every plate appearance looking for a pitch to drive, if he doesn't get it, he walks or strikes out.... that is not a bad thing, it's a GOOD THING! He is not going to alter his approach, nor should he, considering he is a great batter.
People that complain about Drew are probably the same people that like to waste outs on bunts.
please don't use words like jitterbug????
By the way, "Three True Outcomes" > "Toothpick Ratio"
Hey Adam... I really like your writing style. Good stuff. Keep it up.
Heather:
It works for a number of reasons. You want your leadoff guy to make the pitcher work. The reason for this is not only to drive up the pitch count, but also for the hitters behind you to get a good look at the pitchers "stuff". A leadoff hitter can often times get one more at bat than others in the lineup. If he drives the pitch count up, it contributed to long innings, higher pitch counts and more bullpen work for the other team. As you have seen recently, most teams so not have a good pen, so the Sox can go to work on lesser pitchers. Two walks are as good as two hits. often times they are better because it forces the pitcher to throw alot of pitches. It also forces the average pitcher to throw more strikes to the next batter. That next batter would be Pedroia.....and we all know what he can do with a fastball over the plate.
I just hope they don't kill each other in the outfield. The final out yesterday was the second near-disaster in a week (after Drew did not yield to Ellsbury calling him off last week.)
I saw Mike Greenwell put Ellis Burks on the DL too many times to go through that again. Tito needs to have some words with them.
I think the point is that Drew draws a significant number of walks using this strategy. When he takes pitches rather than putting the ball in play, which accounts for 39% of his plate appearances, he walks 41% of the time.
I can think of plenty of situations where taking pitches (which we've established comes with a 41% chance Drew walking) would be more useful than swinging away, which, given Drew's .260 batting average means he has a 26% chance of getting a hit.
Granted, those are just stats. I'm usually the first in line to curse Drew out when he sits on strike three with RISP and the game on the line. But that's why this is an interesting article; it presents another way of looking at Drew's frustrating at-bats. Thank you, Mr. Kilgore.
That's not the roll of a leadoff hitter.
"That's not the roll of a leadoff hitter."
You might want to be more clear with who you're responding to. I'm unsure if you mean that Drew's approach is not the role of a leadoff hitter (Which it is) or if driving in runs is not the role of a leadoff hitter (Which it is not).
The role of the leadoff hitter is to get on base so that the guy in the second spot can move you along (Considering his high contact numbers and low strikeout numbers, Pedroia is custom fit for that role) to a good position for the three and four guys to knock the runner in. It's basic, fundamental baseball and Drew is good at it.
Drew's a bit hard to judge. On the one hand, he has great power and he can really drive the ball when he makes good contact. That said, he has a great eye and really good patience. Youk is the only guy on the team who might be better suited for the leadoff spot, but it's hard to call. You could really go one way or the other. As it stands, though, Drew's only real knock against him in terms of being a leadoff hitter is that he isn't a huge speed guy, but there's no one else on the team with his on base capability with a significant improvement in speed.
Has anyone seen these reports coming out that the Yankees are being investigated along with two other American League teams for improprieties concerning throwing games to the Yanks for luxury tax bonus money.
If my lead-off hitter burns the starting pitcher for 16-18 pitches then we are likely getting into the other team's pen in the middle of the 5th inning. Maybe sooner. On the other hand, he refuses to protect the plate in crunch time situations which is just wrong. Reach out and foul the pitch off if you need to and wait for the pitcher to miss his location.
Ellsbury is getting better at covering the plate save for his insistence on swinging at high and outside pitches he cannot handle
And, Youk is falling into the same trap. Take strike one and even two then have to fight from there. He's also not making any friends with the umpires with all of his drama and whiny little faces on close pitches that are often strikes.
I
I really appreciate this article. It reminds us that players not only differ but they must - and it is unwise to try to change them too much. It also gives a great insight into why Drew is never likely to be a fan favorite. It is indeed interesting to wonder why we all dislike a called third strike - why that should be less honorable than swinging goes all the way back to Little league. (I know I told my players that I want to see them swinging up there.) But a good look is more important than a wild hack sometimes. Thanks for the thought-provoking piece.
I didn't say it was frustrating when Drew leads off and takes a lot of pitches. I specifically said "when there are runners in scoring position." I'm all for taking a few pitches in your first at-bat with no men on. Geez, I'm not that stupid. And I agree that walks can be as good as hits. But to stand there and watch a pitch go by, right down the middle of the plate, when you've got two strikes doesn't make sense to me. Foul it off and try for another. That's all I'm saying. And for your information, Ryan, I don't like bunts. People who classify other people by one simple question or statement are morons. How does that make you feel?
you gotta get ellsbury back into the leadoff spot. i dont care what anyone says, the sox are a different team when ellsbury is on first and pedroia is in the box. pitchers and catchers are terrified of this situation.
i can understand wanting a high OBP for your leadoff guy, but correct if i am wrong, did we really agree to pay drew $70 million to either strike out or walk? he was brought here to drive in runs, something he won't be doing very often if he is in the 1 spot.
Good posts by Rob (#13) and Heather (#15) to a piece that spurred debate. One poster agreed that Drew shouldn't swing at a pitch he doesn't like. The true measure is to take a swing at a pitch that you can do something with, especially when there are men on base. Johnny Damon is superb at doing just that, as is Derek Jeter, both superb situational hitters and that's what you want at the top of your line-up. You don't want a more passive batter, waiting for just the right pitch. And, if JD's batting eye is as good as one poster claims, how do you explain the unusual number of called 3rd strikes? You can't always blame the umpire. Drew, despite his higher on-base percentage than Ellsbury, is not - and never will be - a natural leadoff batter. Plus no one creates as much havoc for opposing pitchers when on base as Ellsbury (among the Red Sox players, that is). He's a distracting force, something Drew simply is not whether in the batter's box or on the basepaths. Nice column, but I made up my mind on this particular question (Drew vs. Ellsbury as leadoff) a long time ago.
How abour posting their actual stats from the #1 position this year ?
I am very much in the "JD Drew should be the everyday leadoff hitter" camp. He walks a lot. He is good (though not spectacular) on the basepaths. He has a .384 OBP this year with a career .391 OBP. He is able to make pitchers work and can drive up the pitch count. He has reasonable power but tends to struggle in a "pressure" situation with runners on base.
Isn't that a nearly perfect fit for a leadoff hitter on a team with at least decent depth and talent in its lineup? Someone who may not drive in a lot of runs under pressure but can consistently get on base?
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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