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Sizing up the Rays
Perhaps lost in the anticipation of the upcoming series with the first-place (by a half-game) Yankees is that the Red Sox first must deal with the Tampa Bay Rays in a quick but important two-game set in St. Petersburg, Fla. beginning tomorrow night.
If it feels like a long time since the Red Sox and Rays last met, well, that's because it has been. The teams haven't seen each other since May 10, the 33d game of the season. When they renew acquaintances tomorrow night, it will be the the Sox' 105th game.
When the Rays struggled early this season, getting off to an 8-14 start, some might have relegated the defending American League champions to afterthought status in the AL East race. But with a 57-48 record, they are still lurking on the edge of the playoff race, trailing the Yankees (63-42) by six games and the Sox (62-42) by 5 1/2 in the wild-card race.
Naturally, this series is of particular importance to the Rays, and even during their earlier struggles, they were a nemesis for the Sox this season. The Rays are 6-4 against Boston, with a plus-23 run differential, outscoring them 64-41. The Rays won 2 of 3 in a season-opening three game set at Fenway beginning April 7. In the teams' next series beginning April 30, the Rays took 3 of 4, including a 13-0 shellacking of Josh Beckett in the opener. The Red Sox rebounded by taking 2 of 3 at Fenway in a three-game set beginning May 8.
The first pitching matchup of the series is an intriguing one, as well as a rematch of Game 7 of last year's ALCS. Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90 ERA) takes the mound for the Sox, coming off a so-so start July 30 against Oakland when he allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, receiving a no-decision in the Sox' 8-5 win. Until the Oakland start, Lester had been on a sustained run of excellence -- he had allowed three earned runs or fewer in his previous 10 starts dating back to May 31. He was 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA in that stretch.
He will be countered by Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69 ERA), who is building a reputation as a Red Sox killer. He is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season, continuing the dominance he exhibited in the ALCS, when he went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA -- beating Lester twice -- and was named the series MVP.
In the second game, Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) will match up against Rays rookie lefty David Price (4-4, 5.10). Penny struggled in his last start, allowing seven runs in five innings against the A's. Price, who earned the save in Game 7 against the Sox in the ALCS with an electric performance, has been much better at home (4-1, 2.67) than on the road (0-3, 8.20).
Offensively, the Rays are led by third baseman Evan Longoria (.276, 21 homers, 78 RBIs, .886 OPS), left fielder Carl Crawford (.314, 11 homers, 48 steals), and first baseman Carlos Pena (26 homers, 67 RBIs, but a meager .214 batting average). Second baseman Ben Zobrist (.301, 19 homers, 56 RBIs, .988 OPS) and shortstop Jason Bartlett (.331, 8 homers, .889 OPS) have been pleasant surprises, while DH Pat Burrell (.226, 7 homers) and center fielder B.J. Upton (.244, 7 homers) have struggled.
Look for Carl Crawford to open up another lead on Ellsbury in the stolen base chase after this series. Still wonder why no one talks about how many SBs the Sox give up, about half of which are uncontested, as a problem with this team?
i believe Lester's last start was in Boston vs. Oakland, not AT Oakland
Carlos Pena is an all or nothing hitter. 26 home runs and only a .214 batting average? i wouldn't want him on my team.
Orange Julius: No one talks about the SB because they don't want to offend Tek. He is terrible and the league knows it. How many runs were scored as a result of indifference or inability to throw timely and accurately. Blame it all on Julio Lugo instead.
We may see quicker/modified pitcher deliveries/more pitchouts. Still see a lot of sbs this series
The best defense for the SB,don't let them on base!!!!
I see the SB issue addressed regularly on the pages of the Globe. It was also discussed recently here in light of the V Martinez trade, noting that he is below average catching runners as well, meaning that SB's will continue to be a potential problem (especially if pitchers walk the batters who lead-off the game, or lead-off any inning). I do not think any halfway-attentive Sox fan can ignore this issue, and for a number of years now we have had an ongoing debate about how to deal with steals against Sox batteries. Remember the debates about focusing on the batter first vs. watching the runners first, about only pitching from the stretch with runners on vs. using the slide step to stop the running game? Not only has the local media talked about it, fans have talked about it, and pitching coaches and managers have tried various approaches too. That said, I don't think that steals will be the Sox downfall -- I think that with V-Mart, they are on their way this year.
Tito showed his pitching rotation is flexible by switching Lester and Penney.
Good move. That way he has both his quality pitchers in for the Yankees.
Joe, Strange, but it seems to me that in all my years associated with baseball (playing, coaching, managing, nd umpiring), I've noted that if PITCHERS can't hold a runner at/near 1st base, even a great catcher with a cannon of an arm (Pudge Rodriguez and Johnny Bench come to mind) won't be able to throw a runner out at 2nd. So, please, do more research to geta better take, and lay off Tek.
'Carlos Pena is an all or nothing hitter. 26 home runs and only a .214 batting average? i wouldn't want him on my team' He's been more productive than Oritiz, I just wonder if you think the same of Papi.
AZPAT2 has it exactly right. All the Tek bashers need to hear Curt Shilling's take on stolen bases. He has explained that in the large majority of cases a base is stolen on the pitcher, not the catcher. As a pitcher he can't be prejudiced against pitchers. So, educate yourself Joe, and leave Tek alone.
So I guess all of that stuff about Ivan Rodriguez in his prime and the ridiculously high percentage of runners he threw out was all the pitchers on the Texas Rangers then.
I LOVE CARLOS PENA. HE IS A WONDERFUL BOY! Grew up in Haverhill, Ma and we are all so proud of him making it to the major leagues. We hope he comes back to Boston one day with our Red Sox. Good luck Carlos, we all love you no matter what. It is ok that you are playing for the opponent, we hope you play well and do your best.
Rays fans are simply clinging to the fact that Crawford is fast and ran at will the last time the Sox faced them in Tampa. I have to agree with AZPAT2 completely. We could turn this around and talk about Ellsbury. All I know is that when I am at the game tomorrow night I will be cheering heartily for my beloved Sox!
the sox are way better with tek in the game, he is an allstar catcher, the sb's are not his fault its the pitcher. when tek plays we win, plain and simple. kottaras needs to stay on the dl.
I wonder if V-Mart will be catching Penny.... Penny & Tek vs Rays: ouch!
We will sweep these guys easily. The rays are nothing but a fluke. The yankees haven't beat us all year, we will sweep them too. In a couple of weeks the sox will have at least a 6 game lead. Theo made another great trade while the yankees did nothing.
We will sweep these guys easily. The rays are nothing but a fluke. The yankees haven't beat us all year, we will sweep them too. In a couple of weeks the sox will have at least a 6 game lead. Theo made another great trade while the yankees did nothing.
mike g..wow.double sweep comming up....gatta atleast like your Optimism.
If the Sox could actually, you know, keep Crawford from getting on base at about a .600 or so clip, it might reduce the likelihood of a six steal game or a ten steal series for him. He makes that lineup go...must keep him off the basepaths...
Hey Dave -would you rather have Papi's 15 homers and .220 average, or Pena's 26 and .214? We all love Ortiz, but after the latest news...don't be bashing Pena.
I was in Balmer yesterday for the 18-10 game. What a hitter that V Martinez is! Get ready to grab some pine Tek. Even if Martinez can't throw better, I'll take the 5 hits.
I reckon some/most of the SBs are because the pitcher is focusing primarily on the batter, though the game's circumstances (i.e. score, number of outs, who's on base, RISP, inning, etc.) should influence whether to keep a runner tight at 1st.
Many will automatically fault the catcher for SBs, without consideration for the pitcher, 1B, and circumstances of the game at the time. Face it, stats are only kept for the catcher when it comes to SBs and CSs, when, in fact, it's not always up to the big guy behind the mask.
Pitchers who can pick off potential SBs are rare -- it's becoming a lost art, both for the pitchers and the 1Bs who know how to sweep a tag. The timing, the dekes, the split-second tag: when it's done properly, it's manna from heaven, evoking a "YES!!!" from the home team and a four-letter retort from the scorned team. It's instant replay material, and might even make the weekly highlight reel on ESPN. Gotta love it.
And so, maybe Tek doesn't have a laser arm to nab guys at second. But if I have my druthers, I want Tek behind the plate, calling HIS game with HIS pitchers. He knows his guys, he knows what his guys have/don't have on any particular night, he knows the league better than anyone. One or two SBs shouldn't make that much of a difference to a team that should be firing on all cylinders. Translations: It takes all nine guys. OK, ten if you count the DH. LOL (And don't make me go there!) Tek, as an honorable man, will empty his brain out on the floor for Victor to grab whatever he needs. Believe it. There's no "I" in team. At least not in Boston.
"We will sweep these guys easily. The rays are nothing but a fluke." Hey Mike G., we have heard that before like last year after the All-Star break, after last season, before this season, etc. The only time you swept us last year was at Fenway but we won the last The fact is the Rays haven't gone away even though I am sure some Sox fans wish they did. The Rays have been able to get to the Sox top pitchers as well as Paplebon and the mystique of playing at Fenway no longer exists for the Rays. The Rays are no fluke. They have a talented, although young team. As guys like Garza, Price, Niemann, Longoria, Upton, Zobrist, Kazmir, Howell, Aybar continue to mature they will only improve. Can you say that about Big Papi and Veritek? The Sox do have some great young ballplayers in Pedroia and Ellsbury but overall the Rays have more team speed which could be the deciding factor in this series matchup.
Also, don't count the Yankees out either. They are a much better team than last year. The division and the wild card will most likely not be decided until the end of the season. With Iwamura, Perez and Riggins returning in the next month or so, our bullpen beginning to return back to it form of last year and if Pena, Upton and Pat "The Rat" Burrell star playing up to their capabilities I like our chances for another playoff run.
Thank you Just a Girl for explaining my thoughts entirely, completely agree.
Rays Fan, you are absolutely correct. Unless the Red Sox play triple their average output every night, they would have a hard time beating the Rays. The Sox have to realize that the AL East Division is no longer a monopoly of the Sox and the Yankees. Somewhere, somehow, sometime, the Rays will beat the wits of the two teams, which truly spend tons of money to get their teams stronger. Being a small market team with limited financial capability, the Rays is thoroughly managed. They know how to stretch their limited budget to the fullest. This is why you can always expect a good fight from the Rays. Yes, the AL East Division championship and wild car will be cliffhanger. The Yankees and the SWox can"t be that complacent. Otherwise, the rays will bust them.
@Bat Insider
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