now you wait just a doggone minute here: a genius... in WEST PALM BEACH?

Change the two 84's to 64's and you have it right. And the Yankees have not won the division or home field advantage yet either.

98-64 (not 98-84)

That's some interesting stuff Mike. Thanks for sharing Adam.

I like our chances to make the playoffs. Looks like this team might start peaking at the right time. Dice-K looked promising (and he doesn't have to be dominant, just competent), Clay is finally putting it together...combined with Beckett/Lester and a very talented, stout bullpen and a lineup that has looked worlds better since "Mr. Clutch" Victor Martinez was acquired...maybe we could really make a strong run at the World Series again.

Adam, your worst mistake regarding the magic number was when you said "there" magic number would be 14. C'mon, man. I know none of the kids can spell at all these days, but you blogging "journalists" have to know the difference between "there" and "their," right?

I'm gonna try to explain this--if I don't do a good job, maybe someone can help me out. Or maybe I'm just overtired. But I think the magic number doesn't match you with another team, it matches you with "the team in second place for your spot," in this case, the wild card spot. Therefore, as soon as Texas passes the Angels, we're not looking at Texas as the team we have the magic number over anymore, we're looking at the Angels. As soon as Texas passes the Angels, the magic number "skips" a number, but that extra jump comes from the NEW team battling us losing. So I think the magic number is still 14, but if the team chasing us changes, the one extra loss comes from the third team, i.e. the "new" team chasing us.

To sum up, the magic number of 14 means "any combination of wins by the Red Sox and losses by [the opponent in second place AT ANY GIVEN TIME]" adding up to 14. But the loss that drops the new team into the spot counts toward the magic number. And knowing that if they end up in a tie we go to the playoffs is again like having a built-in extra loss coming from one of them in a playoff.

Something like that.

By the way, Brilliant Mike and you are both wrong.

You would be correct only if the Rangers won all their games and the Sox won 13 games. However, that would not change the Magic Number. Why?

Rangers (18 games left) go 5-13. Beat the Angels 5 times. Record: 85-77
Sox (19 games left) lose all their games. Record: 85-77
Angels(18 left) lose 5 to Texas, but still go 13-5. Record: 99-63
Wild Card is not won by Boston with any losses by the Rangers. Magic Number means total wins plus losses by the second place team that equal a clinch. This scenario shows the second place team losing 13, yet no clinch, hence, no Magic Number. The Red Sox Magic number is 14, not 13.

"The best record [the Rangers] can finish with is 98-84." A typo, surely? Don't you mean "98-64"?

I think the same thing happened in '04 - the Sox magic number went from 2 to 0 when they won a single game. If I remember correctly, it was mathematically possible for Oakland to pass the Sox in the wild card, but in doing so they'd also knock the Angels out in the west.

Yeah, pointless fun with math.

Make that 98-64 for the Rangers and this string will be a helluva lot less confusing...

"Right now, the Rangers are 80-64. The best record they can finish with is 98-84."

So when you checked your posting before loading it, did you check his/your math? How about that genius, did he check his/your math?

Let's see, 98 + 84 = 182. How many regular season games to professional baseball teams in the MLB play each year?

Both instances that mention a 98-84 record should read 98-64.

Are you sure the email was from a Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay? 14 = 13 and 9 = 8!

Yes, but if the Red Sox don't win 13 games, their magic number remains 14.

For example, let's imagine the Sox win 10 more, and finish at a respectable 95-67. The Rangers can still win all of their games except, let's say, 2 against the Halos and still finish 96-86. In this scenario, the Angels still only lose a minimum of 65 games.

Remeber that magic numbers aren't how many games the home team must win, but the number of combined wins and losses needed to eliminate all pursuers.

See the logical flaw there? Not brilliant. Not a genius. Still, 14 ain't so bad.

I meant to say:

Yes, but if the Red Sox don't win 13 games, their magic number remains 14.

For example, let's imagine the Sox win 10 more, and finish at a respectable 95-67. The Rangers can still win all of their games except 3 against the Halos and still finish 95-67. In this scenario, the Angels still only lose a minimum of only 63 games.

Remember that magic numbers aren't how many games the home team must win, but the number of combined wins and losses needed to eliminate all pursuers.

See the logical flaw there? Not brilliant. Not a genius. Still, 14 ain't so bad.

wow, now I can sleep at night.

Where are they going to get the extra 20 games?

Genius? I think more like someone with way too much time on their hands.

That is pretty impressive! Im glad Mike in West Palm beach was able to put aside his Star Wars toys and self loathing long enough to figure that out. What a tool!

I'd thing a genius would realize a 98-84 record is impossible.

"The best record they can finish with is 98-84."

I think you meant to type 98-64?

The "bottom line" above is correct, but usually the "magic number" is assumed to mean any combination of Red Sox wins and Rangers losses. If the Red Sox go 0-19 and the Rangers go 5-13, the teams will be tied (and the Angels will be ahead of them), so the magic number is still 14.

Actually, this is incorrect. A magic number does not assume one team wins all of its games. The Red Sox need a total of 14 to clinch. If Boston were to win only 6 more games and Texas were to only lose 7, the teams would be tied at 91-71. The Rangers could lose some of their games to the Angels and still be at 91-71 and in second place.

The Wild Card magic number is 14. End of story.

So then 13 is the new 14. Sounds great, but I don't think the Rangers best record can be 98-84...ouch, those typos will get you every time!

Adam, I'm picking up what you're putting down here,
BUT, please check your numbers/math (98-84???)

bring it back up to my desk when finished and I will give you a gold star. :)

I don't have the time to come up with these crazy stats, but somebody apparently does.

This guy's a genius alright. If the Rangers finish 98-84, they will have played 182 games.

The best record they can finish with is 98-64, not 84.

this is wrong.the magic number is any combo of ranger losses and sox wins totalling 14. its not that the sox have to win 13.

you said "The best record they can finish with is 98-84" but I think you meant 98-64

Typo patrol . . .
"Right now, the Rangers are 80-64. The best record they can finish with is 98-84. "

Adam, I think you mean 98-64 would be the best record for the Rangers!

since when did the baseball start playing 182 games in a season or is it just the Sox, ranger and angels and everyone else plays 162.

98 + 84 = 182
98 + 64 = 162

How about trying 98-64 instead of 98-84....it's wrong in two different spots.

"But they only need to win 13 games and finish 98-84, which would be an impossible record for the Angels to duplicate if the Rangers win all of their games."

98-84 is an impossible record for the Red Sox to achieve - there are only 162 games to play each year

Typos, Typos, Typos.

Adam, you wrote: "Right now, the Rangers are 80-64. The best record they can finish with is 98-84."

A 182 game schedule?

They won't have to go 13-6. 19 games left. 5 1/2 up in the wild card. all they need to go is like 10-9, 11-8. That gets them to 95-67, 96-66. The Rangers would have to go like 15-3, 14-4.

Yes, but.........I want the division. What must we do vs. what must the Yankees do?

Thanks

I like math

98-84 is an impossible record for ANY team to finish with... there are only 162 games in a season - not 182.

Hey, that's great insight. Nice work by West Palm Beach. It's great to have a comfortable number to sit on for the rest of the season, rather than having to constantly watch three sets of scores 'til the end of September.

Adam: third graf, second sentence reads: "The best record they can finish with is 98-84." I believe you mean 98-64, yes?

The magic number is supposed to be any combination of wins and nearest opponent losses. If the Sox win 6 and the Rangers lose 7 that would be 13. If that happens the two teams have identical 91-71 records and Texas wins the tie breaker. The Sox magic number which can not overcome is 14.

The best the Rangers can finish is 98-64, you mean.

INTERESTING, BUT I WANT 100 WINS. LOOKING AT THE SCHED, AND THEIR RECENT PLAY, IF THEY LOSE NO MORE THAN 4 THEY GET 100. THE YANKEES ARE IN DISARRAY; POSADA WILL BE SUSPENDED FOR AT LEAST 5 GAMES. I BELIEVE THEIR MAGIC NUMBER IS 6, SO THE DIVISION IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH, BUT 100 IS STILL A MAGIC NUMBER.

98-84 is an impossible record for any MLB team to have, unless Selig snuck another 20 games into the schedule.

Um... no. Because the Angels are going to win their DIVISION. They aren't a factor in the wild card race. If the Rangers have a better record than the Red Sox, they win the wild card. The Red Sox can't overcome the Angels and take the AL West.

This is a good observation by Mike, however as I understand it the 'magic number' refers to any combination of wins by our team and losses by the other team, and based on that the number stays at 14. Because if the Sox lose all their remaining games and the Rangers lose 13 of their remaining games the 2 teams end up tied and in a playoff.

13 is therefore only a possibility, whereas 14 is a guarantee.

Sept. 16, 2009

Finally, someone recognizes that the "wild card" standings/magic numbers must include the leading teams in each division that with no clinched division championship. This is because a Met-like collapse by a division leader can make that team a non-division leader and sudden participant in the wild card competition (as one of the "wild card" paticipants in their division replaces them as a division winner). Simple, but for years I've never seen anyone recognize it in publications.
TTom

"But they only need to win 13 games and finish 98-84, "

They only need to play 182 games - that is all?

Let's save adjectives like brilliant and genius to the first guy who can convince Joe Mauer that he wants to move from St Paul to Boston. I moved to the Twin Cities last year but my heart is still in RSN.

That is excellent, and correct, deductive reasoning. I generally don't consider the interrelated possibilities until the "magic number" is lower, but this is right on the mark. Great job!

This is fascinating as it has serves as all sort of people struggling to figure it out...my biggest concern though is the Kansas City series coming up next week, has any one noticed they have been beating up on the Tigers and being spoiler like. Heck, I wouldn't sleep on the Indians either..

Nifty ciphering from Mike. You're my kind of stat/numbers guy.

That guy has too much time on his hands...

I don't think this is accurate. The Rangers don't have to win all their games to make the playoffs. They could lose 3 or 4 games to the Angels and still finish ahead of the Sox so the Magic Number is actually 14, not 13.

This is awesome, mad props to Mike!

This is awesome, mad props to Mike!

Nice try. This reasoning explores only one possibility, i.e. that the Rangers win everything the rest of the way. The magic number, by definition, regards ALL possibilities, including that the Rangers and Angels may split a bunch of games and the Sox will tank. Magic number's 14, bub.

Brian, I think you're missing the point about the Angels. It's that the number of games the Angels and Rangers play means that the Rangers are in TWO races: Wild Card, and AL West. The competition for the Wild Card changes based on the outcome of those games between the Rangers and Angels.

No one said the Rangers have to win them all. What's your scenario that proves it's 14?

Mad props, nothing, it's still wrong.

Not only are posts proving this not posted, but the raving for this Mike guys are. Is he a relative?

The magic number is still 14 no matter which way you look at it.

Brian (Post #6) is right. I was loving this article until he posted that.

If the Sox go 0-19, and the Rangers go 5-13, they would both be 85-77.

In that scenerio, the Magic Number of 13 calculated by Brilliant Mike in Florida would be met (0 Sox Wins + 13 Ranger Losses), but they would be tied. Therefore, 14 is the correct magic number.

I agree with Brian.

The logic presented doesn't seem to work. The idea of a magic number is that any combination of that many wins or losses GUARANTEES a playoff spot.

Picking up 13 Sox wins / Rangers losses doesn't guarantee a spot - there are scenarios where the Rangers don't win out against the Angels and 13 doesn't get the Sox in, right?

Daphne, the whole premise of the article is that the Rangers would have to win all of their games against the Angels, therefore giving them the AL West. What the article doesn't take into account is that if they don't pull of this unlikely feat, the Sox magic number is still 14 (now 12).