It appears the Red Sox will obtain Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres for RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo and CF Rey Fuentes.
If that proves to be the case — and nothing is final quite yet — the Red Sox will have done quite well to retain Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish.
Kelly is their best prospect and his loss would be significant. But when the Red Sox drafted and signed Anthony Ranaudo and Brandon Workman, that gave then two RHPs who are older than Kelly. Ranaudo is a comparable prospect and could make it to Portland at some point next season.
Rizzo is an excellent prospect who could start next season in AAA. But with Gonzalez in the fold, the Red Sox do not need a first baseman. Fuentes is an athletic A ball prospect who so far has lacked power.
UPDATE, 10:52 a.m.: We can now confirm, via Major League sources, that the package will include Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes.
That's two former first-round picks and three players with tremendous upside.
Kelly wrote this on Twitter: "Just waking up beautiful day in Sarasota about to get some breakfast. Can't worry about things out of your control."
He's a big loss, a potential No. 2 starter with great makeup.
Keep this in mind, however: The Red Sox will gain five draft picks in a deep 2011 draft as free-agent compensation. They will get two picks for Victor Martinez, two for Adrian Beltre and one for Felipe Lopez in addition to their own.
UPDATE, 11:17 a.m.: Now Ken Rosenthal of Fox is reporting the Padres may get a player to be named later.
The official details may not be known for a while. Gonzalez needs to pass a physical and the Red Sox have a window to sign him to an extension. As we get more info, we'll pass it along.