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Who do you like in the Oscars tonight?

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff  February 27, 2011 11:58 AM

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(Warning, this post is not about baseball. If that will greatly upset you, please stop reading now and go sit in a dark room. We'll have plenty more baseball later in the day.)

FORT MYERS, Fla. Life is not all about baseball and the Red Sox do not play until this evening. So who do you like in the Oscars tonight?

I saw all the nominated films (yes, even Winter's Bone) and here's who I would pick and who seems likely to win.

BEST PICTURE

A movie about Facebook sounded boring, but The Social Network was the most entertaining film I saw. But The King's Speech is favored and it was fantastic, too.

BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell got so many good performances out of the cast of The Fighter. But it sounds like David Fincher will win for The Social Network and that's hard to argue against.

BEST ACTOR
It's a lock for Colin Firth of The King's Speech and that's who I would pick.

BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman was excellent in Black Swan and it sounds like she will win. But a journalist friend in the entertainment business says watch out for Annette Bening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
If Christian Bale doesn't win for The Fighter, there should be an investigation. All the experts say he will take it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo from The Fighter would be my pick, but word is her campaign rankled Hollywood and young Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit will win. She would be third on my list behind Amy Adams, also of The Fighter.

Who do you like?

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