Can we all agree now that last year’s 18-win season was a wild statistical aberration? Since Aug. 15 of his rookie season, Matsuzaka has a 4.44 ERA and the fourth-best run support in baseball among the 100 major league pitchers with at least 40 starts. (Hence the 21-12 record.) Meanwhile, he ranks 88th in innings. The won-lost record is the real fluke here. While the Red Sox remain vague about Matsuzaka’s scheduled return, don’t bet on anything before Sept. 1, when rosters expand to 40 players. In the short term, this team has plenty of starting pitching and will get along fine. But in the long term, with Wakefield, Penny, and John Smoltz all aging and/or reaching the end of their contracts, Matsuzaka suddenly looks extremely overpaid.