A huge X factor in Phoenix

Of all the comebacks in all the NBA's gym joints, this one was, easily, the most anticipated. Amare Stoudemire, who had not played a minute all season, made his 2005-06 debut Thursday. He had 20 points and 9 rebounds for Phoenix in 19 minutes, logging about five minutes at the start of each quarter.

What does this mean? Can we upgrade the Suns from dangerous to outright menacing? Or will the team that had been merrily rolling along have trouble reintegrating Stoudemire, especially with so many players who were not there last year?

Stoudemire is still only 23. He had microfracture surgery on his left knee in October and the Suns quickly put him on the back burner while he rehabilitated. At times, there were questions as to whether he'd play at all this season, especially when the Suns played so well without him.

''The thing he has to learn is that you have to take baby steps," said Suns chairman Jerry Colangelo. ''You can't just go out there and expect to be the player you were before the injury. So much of it now is all mental for him. This was a serious injury and he needs to get his confidence back."

All you have to do is look at the 2003-04 Sacramento Kings as an example. Over the first 58 games, all without an injured Chris Webber, the Kings went 43-15. They had a comfortable lead over the Shaq-Kobe-Mailman-GP Lakers at the beginning of March. However, over the final 24 games, the Kings went 12-12 as they struggled to assimilate Webber back into the lineup. Webber also wasn't completely fit, as became more apparent in the playoffs, when the Kings lost in the second round.

No one is suggesting the Suns will suddenly morph into a .500 team. And a big win over a horrible Portland team at home amounts to little more than a W. The real test is weeks away, both physically and mentally.

''It was a really good start," Suns coach Mike D'Antoni said of Stoudemire. ''But he still has some dog days ahead of him."

Colangelo and Stoudemire had a long chat before the player's return. ''I think the main thing he said [was that] it was pretty much on me," Stoudemire said.

Said Colangelo, ''He could have two or three good days and then a setback. That's just how it goes with things like this. We all need to be realistic about this. We can't expect him to get back on the floor and be the same player he was at the end of the playoffs last year."

That would be the Stoudemire who gave San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich nightmares, as he averaged 37 points a game in the Western Conference finals against one of the league's best defensive teams and, needless to say, the 2004-05 NBA champions. After that series, Popovich had a week to prepare for the Eastern Conference champion. It was suggested that he might need the time to get over the image of Stoudemire abusing his team.

''I'll need longer than that," Popovich said. He said he could never, ever remember a single player torching his team the way Stoudemire did. ''When he has you, facing up, it's all over," Popovich said. ''We had no answers for him and we knew it."

That Stoudemire is the one who could potentially tip the balance in the West. But will we see that Stoudemire? Will he remember he's playing with Raja Bell and Boris Diaw instead of Joe Johnson and Jim Jackson? Do Popovich, Avery Johnson, George Karl, and anyone else in the Suns' way have more of a reason to be worried now than they did last week?

Only time will tell. One of the under-the-radar stories all season has been Tim Duncan's struggle with plantar fasciitis, although he has fought through it enough to miss just one game. He already has played more games this season (68) than last season (66). But he's also averaging career lows in points and rebounds. Dallas has had a healthy Dirk Nowitzki all season -- he went for 51 Thursday night -- but just about everyone else of importance (aside from Jason Terry) has missed time.

We all figured the likely matchup in Round 2 between Dallas and San Antonio would give us the eventual 2006 NBA champion. You can't state otherwise based on one or two outings, but if Stoudemire is anything close to the terror he was last spring, the Suns may have a say in the outcome.

In other words, the playoffs just got a little dicier.

O'Neal picks up the Pacers

Amare Stoudemire wasn't the only comeback story of the week. Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal returned Wednesday against Chicago, playing for the first time since Jan. 24. He had been out with a torn groin muscle. O'Neal came off the Indiana bench and had 16 points and 6 rebounds in 25 minutes in a 10-point win over the Bulls.

''Having Jermaine back gave us a spiritual lift," said coach Rick Carlisle. ''He played really well considering he's been out two months. It's essential we have time to get him reintegrated with the team. With him and Jamaal [Tinsley] back, we're in a period of adjustment of sorts."

Aren't the Pacers perpetually in a period of adjustment? You can make a case that the Suns are getting back their second-best player. Indiana, clearly, is getting its top player back -- one who, unfortunately, has battled injuries the last two seasons.

''The things that I saw while I was injured, I got to see from a different level," O'Neal said after the Chicago game. ''I could really see how I could help more. It wasn't just a physical thing with me as it was a mental thing. I really needed to be in here for the long run if we're going to have any kind of run these last 16 games."

If the Pacers do get whole again, they have to be factored in to any discussion about the East. The Pistons and Heat still look to be better and the Nets are one of their upswings. But a healthy Indiana, which includes Peja Stojakovic, has to be considered.

A novel challenge: Greater expectations

Let's take Doc Rivers at his word when he says he fully intends to return to the Celtics next season. (Me? I'll believe it when I see it.) Already he knows one thing: There will be something next year that there hasn't been in either of his first two years in Boston: expectations.

''I've never been in this position, maybe ever," he said, of coaching a team that is going to be expected to do well. ''In Orlando, we first signed Tracy [McGrady] and Grant [Hill], and then Grant got hurt. It was all over after that and it never returned."

Under Rivers, the Magic rarely had Hill, never won more than 44 games, and didn't get out of the first round of the playoffs in three tries, even after leading Detroit, 3-1, in 2003. Then, last year, the Celtics won 45 games, had the No. 3 seed and home court, and lost to what many felt was an inferior Indiana team, dropping three home games.

Rivers said the Celtics' situation is vastly different because of the ''core group," but, until proven otherwise, the playoffs remain a hurdle.

Among current NBA coaches with playoff experience, no one has coached more playoff series (four) without winning one. Only one other current NBA coach, Mo Cheeks, is winless in the postseason, having lost both of his series with Portland.

Since the NBA started its Coach of the Year Award in 1963, only one man has won the award without qualifying for the playoffs in that season: Doc Rivers in 2000.

Etc.

Of course, the Celtics can still, mathematically, qualify for the playoffs, but would anyone expect Doc Rivers's drought to end if they played the Pistons or Heat in the first round? Didn't think so. And here's something else to consider. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team since the 1950s has made the playoffs without winning as many as three straight games sometime in the regular season. The 1966-67 Chicago Bulls, for instance, won 33 games and made the playoffs. They had two three-game streaks, a four-gamer, and a five-gamer. The only teams in NBA history to make the playoffs without winning three in a row are the 1959-60 Minneapolis Lakers and the 1952-53 Baltimore Bullets. The 1959-60 Lakers won 25 games, but still came within a game of reaching the NBA Finals. The 1952-53 Bullets won only 16 games (out of 70) and lost in the first round.

Came across this interesting quote from Toni Kukoc, who was asked by Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune what it's like playing with young, unproven teams after having been such a critical part of three Chicago title teams. (The italics are mine.) ''My eyes were opened once I left Chicago," Kukoc said. ''You then understand why Phil [Jackson] wanted mature players. It's more important guys know the game than being athletic. You've got to have some athleticism, but a knowledge of the game is more important. It's more important than even talent. You've got to have talented individuals, but you have to have five guys willing to work with each other with guys coming off the bench to work with each other. Basketball is more team-oriented than soccer, hockey. That's [what] wins the championships."

Prior to the game against the Celtics March 14, Memphis coach Mike Fratello, his team having lost two straight, was asked about the Grizzlies' homestand in progress, which had them playing six straight at home and eight of nine. ''The opportunity is there," Fratello said. ''But just by playing in your building, there's no guarantee." The Grizz crushed the Celtics that night and then ripped off four more victories, including a 10-pointer over the Clippers Thursday that brought them within a half-game of fifth-place LA. The Grizzlies made it six straight Friday night in New York against the dysfunctional Knicks and now have the opportunity to match their franchise record of eight straight wins with victories today at home against Charlotte (whom they've yet to play this season) and Tuesday against the Sonics. But, as was noted last week, it might be better to finish in the sixth spot out West, because that would get you Denver in the first round (where the Grizzlies might actually win a playoff game for the first time in franchise history) rather than Dallas or San Antonio. While most of the hoop world focused on Amare Stoudemire Thursday night, the Suns' opponent that night, the Trail Blazers, were a little shorthanded. It wasn't by accident. Darius Miles missed the entire shootaround that day, saying he had overslept. (It had nothing to do, he said later, with playing only 17 minutes and getting only four shots and no rebounds or points in the previous game, a loss to Milwaukee.) Miles then got to the arena early to practice, but no-nonsense Portland coach Nate McMillan told him not to bother -- he'd be watching, not playing. As McMillan put it after the game to the Oregonian, ''I've never, as a player or as a coach, seen that. I've had players come late, but never miss an entire shootaround. You know, that . . . there's no excuse for that." Miles missed Friday night's game because of the death of his grandfather.

The Lakers are going with Kwame Brown in the middle for the foreseeable future, as Chris Mihm is out indefinitely with a severely sprained ankle. Brown had a decent game last week against the Celtics, but, in a critical matchup against Sacramento two nights later, he came through with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists in 41 minutes. The Lakers won, 87-80. ''I think Kwame understands he's going to play this role, do it the right way, run the court, rebound, get whatever comes to him," said Lakers coach Jackson. ''Mentally, I think he has changed his approach in terms of not worrying so much about the scoring and just playing." Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak, meanwhile, said he was not at all disappointed with Brown, who has not lived up to the hype generated by being the first high schooler ever chosen No. 1 overall, in 2001, by none other than Michael Jordan. ''It's the curse of being the No. 1 player in the draft, but he didn't pick himself No. 1," Kupchak told the Los Angeles Times. ''If this guy was a 20-point, 10-rebound guy, Washington would have never traded him. We traded for him because he's a young player playing a position where we had a hole. I think next year he can be a 12-8 or 14-10 type of player, and we'd be very pleased." So far this year, Brown has been a 6-6 guy, starting 38 of 61 games.

Material from personal interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.