Forget a repeat, Celtics are already winners

You know the deal up front. The Celtics will not become the 2009 NBA champions.

You won't be teased. You won't be living through one of those tedious, agonizing, will-he-or-won't-he scenarios. Barring some unforeseen medical miracle, Kevin Garnett is O-U-T, out of the playoffs. They now have a new goal - the Eastern Conference finals. That remains quite attainable. Orlando's good, but not scary good.

So relax. The pressure's off. Sit back and watch an entertaining team do the best it can, whatever that happens to be.

There is no other sane way to look at this.

But wait. I gather that some people are - I can hardly believe this - angry. Disappointed, I can see. I'm disappointed, too, but angry? About what?

Is there some kind of entitlement clause I never heard about? Have fans forgotten that when the Big Three were assembled there was an agreed-upon three-year window to produce title No. 17, and that the goal has already been achieved? People have no right to get greedy, especially when two excellent teams such as the 66-16 Cavaliers and the 65-17 Lakers are on the prowl. I'm not saying a healthy Celtics team couldn't have beaten either the Cavs or the Lakers, but I would not have expected them to. Big difference.

Now there is a legitimate question here, I'll grant that. To borrow a phrase, what did the Celtics know, and when did they know it? Some are asking if perhaps there's more going on here than a "sprain," and, if so, why wasn't it addressed immediately, perhaps surgically?

My answer is that I don't know for sure, but I doubt there was any information evasion going on. I think the brass is a bit gobsmacked by this development. As recently as Monday, here is what Danny Ainge had to say.

"I'm optimistic. Hopeful. We're just waiting to see. Hopefully, we will be 100 percent healthy, I think we will be."

I doubt he was referring to Gabe Pruitt.

But I think we all know what's really going on, and it's pretty simple. The Big Ticket has been punched for 1,128 games, regular season and playoffs combined. And Garnett minutes are unlike anyone else's minutes. A Garnett minute is at least a minute and 20, and maybe more. Nobody plays as intensely as Kevin Garnett - nobody. His right knee is saying "Ouch," or words to that effect.

It's got to be bad. This is Kevin Garnett we're talking about.

"After watching him run," Doc Rivers told WEEI yesterday morning, "there's no way . . . This was an honest run today. You couldn't fake your way through it; you know what I'm saying?"

Sadly, yes.

A Garnett-less Celtics is still a formidable foe. They were 18-7 without him this season, with seven of those victories coming over teams with winning records (Phoenix, Denver, Cleveland, Miami twice, and Atlanta twice). They score the ball, as they like to say nowadays, just fine. The problem comes at the defensive end, where Garnett was the physical and spiritual leader. They simply do not defend as well without Kevin Garnett in the lineup and - stop me if you've heard this - defense is what wins championships.

We're going to find out a few things in these playoffs. We will see, for example, just how far Glen "Big Baby" Davis has come in the past two months. Anyone watching this team in the 25 games since KG sustained his knee injury Feb. 19 in Salt Lake City knows that no individual on the team has personally prospered as much as Big Baby, who has broadened his offensive game by making himself a reliable face-up jump shooter and who just plays with more overall poise and presence than he did before.

Baby ended the season nicely, averaging 12.6 points since March 1 while putting up such numbers as 24, 19, 19, 19, 22, 15 and 21 in seven of the final 12 regular-season games. Can he maintain that pace in the most important games? That's a good question.

Baby and Leon Powe will be vitally important. Powe is well-established as a walking double-double waiting to happen. The biggest difference between the two is that Baby has at least grasped the basic concept of the vital defensive rotations from the beginning, whereas Leon still has a way of getting lost. But there are few more relentless forces coming off a bench in terms of attacking the glass and taking it to the hoop than Leon Powe.

But let's get serious. The man who will have to produce, who will have to bring nightly A games, who will have to be as good as he likes to think he is: The Captain.

Paul Pierce came away from last season's Finals with an enhanced reputation as a prime-time player. But that didn't seem to be enough for him. Unless I mistook what he was saying, he couldn't understand why people were hesitating to put him on the same level as Kobe and LeBron (and now, Dwyane). OK, Cap. If you really are that good, now's the time to prove it.

I, for one, won't hold him to that. It's no insult to be a great player, as Pierce is, and still be a cut below that reigning Holy Trinity of Hoop.

Chicago reminds me somewhat of last year's Hawks, with all those bouncy legs (John Salmons, Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, etc.). They've got a great young point guard in Derrick Rose and lots of veteran savvy coming off the bench with Brad Miller, Kirk Hinrich and Tim Thomas, a guy who's always capable of dropping a quick 20 on you. But the Celtics should get by them.

That would bring up Orlando, with that great front line of Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, but they will miss All-Star guard Jameer Nelson, and the Celtics have a very good chance of beating them.

Then it's all house money. The pressure would be completely on the Cavs. Should you hope? Sure. Should you expect? No. They're pretty good. Excuse me, He is pretty good. In fact, He is transcendent. If LeBron James can bring his team within a minute of beating the Celtics last season, why would you think he won't find a way to beat a Garnett-less Celtics team this year?

Anyway, you've already gotten your reward. Stop whining.

Bob Ryan is a Globe columnist and host of the Globe's 10.0 on Boston.com. He can be reached at ryan@globe.com.