No no-brainers

It's been a long month-plus since the dark day when the lottery balls slapped the Celtics with five across the face, and although all parties within the organization have said that they have moved on, it still has to smart.

I know it still does for me. I've tried to talk myself into the available options at the five-slot, and even though I've been somewhat successful (Maybe Horford will slip! Noah is what this team needs! Yi is being unfairly underrated!), I'm having trouble keeping down the impending feeling of dread over the future of the franchise. And watching Oden and Durant walk across the stage and shake the hand of commissioner Stern will surely prompt me reach for the Rolaids once again.

Making matters even worse is the realization that the team's decisions in the next day and coming weeks will define the franchise for a long, long time.

So what will they do? Do they trade the pick, as they've seemingly wanted to do since the ping pong balls fell the wrong way? Or do they keep it and add another young piece to the mix, as Ainge seems to now be leaning, at least publicly?

Over the past month, I've gotten alternately excited and depressed over every out-of-the-blue rumor that seemed to pop up daily. We can get Garnett? Pull the trigger! Oh, wait, we would have to give up Jefferson … hmm … I don't know about that. Well, looks like Kevin doesn't want to come to Boston anyway. What's that you say? Shawn Marion can be had without giving up Big Al? Alright! Wait … he doesn't want to come to Boston either? What the heck is going on?

Rashard Lewis! Andrei Kirilenko! Jermaine O'Neal! Pau Gasol!

After every trade scenario came up and then died, it became clear to me that Ainge is struggling with himself with what to do now. The fact that the Celtics have been involved in so many rumors shows that Ainge may indeed be serious about adding a major veteran piece to the puzzle. But at the same time, he seems unwilling to part with any of the major trading chips he has to play with.

In some ways, all the rumors are a good sign. It shows Ainge is out there exploring every opportunity, but isn't going to make a decision that harms the team in the long term, such as parting ways with Al Jefferson. No matter what superstar is on the block, Ainge is making it clear that he's driving a tough bargain, and that can only be a good thing for the C's, since as we've seen in the past he has been a little too quick to agree to deals that ended up horribly for the team. Trading has not been Danny's strong point. Perhaps he's realizing this, and is more hesitant than ever to pull the trigger.

At the same time, is he more concerned with being swindled than he is with making the team better? Will his newfound gun shyness prevent him from adding a piece to significantly improve the team, now and in the future? Is he overvaluing the chips in his hand?

It's hard to say. Every single trade rumor that has come down the pike has had significant risk. Take on the contract of Kirilenko or Gasol and risk being hamstrung by the salary cap, making it hard to further improve the team. Give up Jefferson and risk losing what many people think will be the future face of the franchise. Take on Garnett and gamble the whole shebang on the next two years (or one!). Keep the pick, stay the course and risk alienating your one true superstar.

There are no easy answers, although there are some deals that may come with less risk than others. Rumors of getting Rashard Lewis from the Sonics for Theo Ratliff, a young player and a future draft pick seemed like the best of the bunch in terms of keeping assets (by not losing Jefferson, the No. 5 pick, and possibly Delonte). However, on a team where the starting forward positions are locked down with Al and Pierce, how does Lewis fit on the court? Unlike some, I hate the idea of Jefferson at the center position. I want to keep him at the power forward, which I think is his natural spot.

Getting Gasol was another rumor that was out there briefly, having the C's give up slightly more, such as the No. 5 pick and a higher-value young player, but keeping Pierce and Jefferson. I liked this a bit more because Gasol could slide into the center position and give the C's a great offensive frontcourt. Of course, the already abysmal defensive concerns would only be increased, and if there's anything this Celtics team needs, it is to get better defensively.

Kirilenko would be an interesting fit, as he'd give the C's that defensive presence that they desperately need, but his contract -- around $63 million over the next four years -- seems a bit high for a guy who isn't a guarantee to put the C's over the top, especially for a Celtics team that has been extremely wary of venturing into luxury tax land.

Garnett was the toughest one. Perhaps the most impressive NBA athlete to see in person, from a pure physical standpoint, I've always admired his on-court demeanor and will to win (although that will to win hasn't exactly brought results in Minnesota). I remember distinctly watching Garnett on the sidelines during Cedric Maxwell's jersey retirement ceremony in 2003. As many Celtics legends stood on the parquet and the spotlights shined on the numbers and banners overhead, Garnett really seemed impressed by it all, standing just outside the tunnel and taking it all in, eyes transfixed on the whole thing. In perhaps the last moment when Celtics mystique could really be felt in the Garden, I got the feeling looking at Garnett watching the whole thing that this was something he really wanted to be a part of. Of course, he came out soon after those trade rumors surfaced, and through his agent shot down any of those perceived sentiments.

And even though I got excited thinking about what the tandem of Garnett and Pierce could do in the East, I was equally depressed at the thought of Jefferson, the one success story of the last year of the Celtics, playing out his career in another city. A tough call, and one I changed my mind on about 500 times. I went back to what Jefferson's stock was like before the 2006-07 season and thought about how Celtics fans should be elated that in a such a short time, Al could go from huge question mark to the key player in a deal that would bring on of the best players in the NBA to Boston. On the other end, Al's stock as risen so greatly that giving him up for anybody seemed like a huge gamble, one that could have a Chauncey Billups- or Joe Johnson-type of downside. Celtics fans, and probably the front office, don’t want to go down that road again.

So now, at least for the moment, it seems like the Celtics will finally use their lottery pick. Whether they're using it for themselves or for another team for a trade in the near future is anybody's guess. And just whom they will take, if they are indeed using it for themselves, is even more of a mystery. Reports have them choosing between Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, and Joakim Noah. If those are the options, I'd much rather take the (admittedly large) gamble on Yi, or take the more known quantity of Noah, than add another swingman in Brewer or Green, no matter what their upside is.

That is, unless, the C's have plans to unload some of their stable of wing players, already overflowing with Gerald Green, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Tony Allen, and, of course, Pierce. (And that's not even counting Ryan Gomes, who I hate as a wing player, or Allan Ray, who I just dislike as a player.)

To be honest, I'm not completely sold on any of the prospects after No. 4 (although if Al Horford or Mike Conley Jr. slip to No. 5, I would take either in a nanosecond), and I don't know if Ainge and Co. are either. Sure they're saying all the right things about getting a solid player at number 5, and they may be right, but I think they're also scared witless of taking the wrong guy.

Think about it. Ainge has been mostly lauded for his drafting record, if only because he's been picking in the teens and twenties and finding the diamonds in the rough, solid NBA rotation players (and one or two potential stars) where not many were expected to be found. But when he had the highest pick of his tenure last year at No. 7, he was quick to send it away, and then deal again for a later pick, where he felt more comfortable making a selection.

Was he afraid of making a mistake being that high in the draft, preferring the lowered expectations brought from picking later? Is that why he was looking to unload this year's selection as well? Does the fact that he is expected to grab an impact player that high in the draft make him uneasy? Does he not trust his talent evaluation when the stakes are that much higher? Who knows, but I find it interesting that Ainge is much more willing to trade his picks when he has a wider selection of talent to choose from.

But the wait is almost over, and if things hold, there will be at least one player walking across that stage with a Celtics hat on tomorrow. That probably won't end any of the trade speculation in the following days, especially after July 1 when the free-agent period begins and sign-and-trade discussions can commence. But whatever happens, the future of the team will be decided in the next few weeks, and it is both exhilarating and completely terrifying at the same time.

I better get another jar of Rolaids.