Wow...it seems like the regular season is still ages away, but I've already participated in my first mock draft of the year.  This one was for Sporting News' Annual Draft Guide, which will be in print in June.

I pulled the 2nd overall pick in the 12-team league.  It's a standard, non-PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. 

Here's what I did:

Pick 1.2: Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.  Foster went first, and as much as I love Shady, I went with the safer option in Rice.
Pick 2.11: Greg Jennings, WR, Packers.  Elite receivers were flying off the board in this round (Megatron went 6th overall), but I loved getting Aaron Rodgers' favorite target here.  That said, as soon as Jordy Nelson was taken in the 4th round, I had some buyer's remorse.  Nelson offered much better value.
Pick 3.2: Michael Vick, QB, Eagles.  A bit of a gamble here, but Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Brady and Cam were already gone.  I wasn't sure what I'd be left with if I didn't grab him now.
Pick 4.11: Fred Jackson, RB, Bills.  I love the value of this pick, assuming he comes back healthy.  Jackson was a beast before his injury last season, and I'll be expecting greatness again.
Pick 5.2: Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys.  I needed another receiver, and Austin was the best available (though I momentarily toyed with taking Dez; decided I didn't need a knucklehead on my squad).  Ohbytheway, Gronkowski went in the mid-3rd and Jimmy Graham in the early 4th.
Pick 6.11: Doug Martin, RB, Bucs. I was targeting a TE here, but Gates and Witten went in the two picks right before mine.  So I went with my 7th-round plan and took Martin.  Tampa Bay didn't trade up to the first round to grab a backup RB.  I expect the rookie to supplant LeGarrette Blount by Week 1.  Martin is projected as a 3-down back.
Pick 7.2: Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts.  I moaned as I made this pick, with memories of Indy's implosion still fresh on my mind.  Hopefully he'll have some Luck with his new QB.  Not a bad WR3, I suppose.
Pick 8.11: Robert Meachem, WR, Chargers.  Here's hoping he'll find some consistency with Philip Rivers.  No reason he can't vault over Malcom Floyd to be the No. 1 WR in this offense.
Pick 9.2: Matt Schaub, QB, Texans.  At this point, Schaub had dropped so far that I felt he represented too much value to overlook.  What a backup QB!
Pick 10.11: Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals.  He was one of the hottest rookie prospects last year around this time, but then he was lost before the season even started with a major injury.  If he comes back 100%, there's no reason to think he won't challenge the even-more-injury-prone Beanie Wells for the starting job.
Pick 11.2: Owen Daniels, TE, Texans.  Pretty slim pickings among TEs at this point.  Had to take what I could get.
Pick 12.11: Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks.  He kept sliding and sliding and sliding until I could overlook him no more.  Who knows?  He could prove to be a steal in the 12th round, if he and Matt Flynn develop some chemistry.
Pick 13.2: Steelers defense/special teams.  The Ravens were the first D/ST off the board in the 9th round, so this is pretty good value.  Wanted the Eagles, but they were snatched up a few picks before mine.
Pick 14.11: Mikel LeShoure, RB, Lions. One thing we can be pretty confident about: Jahvid Best won't make it through the season in one piece.  If LeShoure can just stay healthy, he'll be a starter in the Detroit backfield at some point.
Pick 15.2:  Mario Manningham, WR, 49ers.  This is what you call bench depth, although I wouldn't be completely shocked if he emerges as the best fantasy receiver in that offense.  Who do you like more...Crabtree?  Moss?  A rookie?
Pick 16.11:  Sam Bradford, QB, Rams.  I don't need another passer, but if he gets on a roll, he could be nice trade bait for a QB-needy rival. 
Pick 17.2: Jason Hanson, K, Lions.  Mason Crosby inexplicably went in the 14th round.  Hanson is one of several kickers available in the late-16th and 17th rounds who should be just fine.

There you have it.  I'm sure by the time we're drafting for real, I'll feel completely differently about this squad.  For now, I think it's pretty solid from top to bottom.

Here are my initial thoughts on several of the players taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the 2012 Draft:

Ratings key: 5 - Instant Fantasy Stud
                        4 - Solid Fantasy Contributor
                        3 - Bench Depth Only
                        2 - Maybe in 2013                        1 - Could Be a While


Round 2
No. 33: Brian Quick, WR, Rams.  No team needs help at receiver more than St. Louis.  Quick has a chance to be an instant starter, if he can develop some rapport quickly with Sam Bradford.  Rating: 3

No. 34: Coby Fleener, TE, Colts.  Two things going in Fleener's favor: He'll team up with his Stanford QB, Luck.  And he'll step into an offense in desperate need of another good set of hands.  That said, it's hard to see him as a consistent fantasy contributor in his rookie season.  He's not a draftable option, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him as a mid-season free agent pickup.  Rating: 2

No. 43: Stephen Hill, WR, Jets.  Hill is a true speedster, but it will take him some time to break into the lineup, but Hill has potential, if Mark Sanchez takes the next step in his progression.  If Tebow takes over, though, all bets are off.  Rating: 1

No. 45: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears.  Brandon Marshall is the only sure thing among Chicago receivers.  That means Jeffery will have a chance to contribute as soon as he's ready, especially if Johnny Knox (back) doesn't return from surgery completely ready.  Rating: 2

No. 50: Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams.  Meet S-Jax's new handcuff.  Unless the Rams' offense improves markedly, or Jackson gets hurt, that's about the extent of his value in his rookie season.  He'll make his mark mostly on special teams in his first year.  Rating: 3

No. 54: Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions.  He's coming off ACL surgery, and the Lions' starting receivers are pretty secure.  He's a project.  Rating: 2

No. 57: Brock Osweiler, QB, Broncos.  Will compete with Peyton Manning for the starting job in Denver.  Wait a minute.  No he won't.  Rating: 1

No. 61: LaMichael James, RB, 49ers.  The Oregon star will really have to dazzle during training camp and preseason to work his way into a legitimate backup role.  Both Brandon Jacobs and Kendall Hunter are already lining up behind Frank Gore.  Rating: 1

No. 63: Rueben Randle, WR, Giants.  As with James, Randle has some other players to vault before he will even have a chance to contribute.  Rating: 2

Round 3
No. 64: Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts.  Fuggetaboutit.  If any rookie TE is going to prosper in Indy, it's Fleener.  This ain't Peyton Manning's Colts (or Brady's Patriots).  Rating: 1

No. 67: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos.  There's a backlog of RBs in Denver, but nobody is truly secure besides Willis McGahee.  Hillman's name could surface later in the 2012 season if injuries or mediocre play infect the Broncos' backfield.

No. 68: Devier Posey, WR, Texans.  Say goodbye to the underachieving Jacoby Jones, and hello to Matt Schaub's third WR.  It's not out of the question that he could jump ahead of Kevin Walter at some point in the season.  Rating: 2

No. 69: T.J. Graham, WR, Bills.  Will mostly serve as a kick/punt returner in his rookie season.  Rating: 1

No. 75: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks.  No thanks.  Rating: 1

No. 78: Michael Egnew, TE, Dolphins.  Wait and see.  Rating: 1

No. 83: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals.  There's room in Cincinnati for another starting WR opposite A.J. Green.  Sanu will get his shot, but it's hard to imagine he'll make an impact as a rookie.  Rating: 2

No. 84: Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens.  With Ricky Williams bidding farewell, Pierce will presumably be given every chance to be Ray Rice's primary backup.  Rating: 3

No. 88: Nick Foles, QB, Eagles.  He'll provide depth for Philly, but not for your fantasy team.  Rating: 1

No. 92: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts.  Andrew Luck needs a fast, young receiver, and Hilton is both.  But don't expect a lot of highlights right away.  Rating: 2

As the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft unfolds, we're finally learning where the latest crop of young blood is heading.  Here's my initial, knee-jerk analysis of the fantasy prospects for the offensive skill-position players selected in the 1st round in their rookie season.

Ratings key: 5 - Instant Fantasy Stud
                       4 - Solid Fantasy Contributor
                       3 - Bench Depth Only
                       2 - Maybe in 2013
                       1 - Could Be a While

No. 1 -- Andrew Luck, QB, Colts.  Rookie passers going to crappy teams make lousy fantasy QBs.  Right, Cam?  I suppose if Newton can make chicken salad out of Carolina's chicken scratch, Luck has a chance to produce with veteran Reggie Wayne and, um, the others.  But Cam's rushing ability was the real difference-maker, and Luck isn't similarly blessed.  Not only is Luck not a runner, he won't have any decent RBs behind him.  Rating: 2

No. 2 -- Robert Griffin, Jr., QB, Redskins.  RG3 has a great chance to be this year's Cam Newton.  He has decent talent around him in Washington, and he's equally lethal as a rusher and passer.  It helps that he'll play against three division rivals with suspect secondaries.  Rating: 3

No. 3 -- Trent Richardson, RB, Browns.  The best rusher in the draft will line up behind a solid offensive line for a team that prefers to live and die by the run.  Jackpot.  Rating: 5

No. 5 -- Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars.  No matter how talented he is, a receiver can't throw the ball to himself.  Until Jacksonville puts a decent QB under center, I'll pass on Blackmon.  Rating: 2

No. 8 -- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins.  As a life-long Miami fan, my reaction to using the 8th overall pick on a not-terribly-impressive quarterback with 19 career college starts can be summed up in two words: Damn it.  Rating: 1


No. 13 -- Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals.  I'm already worried about confusing him with Malcom Floyd.  I have four months to figure it out.  Like Malcom, Michael is a big red zone target with good speed.  But Arizona's rookie won't have a QB the caliber of Philip Rivers targeting him.  Lining up opposite Larry Fitzgerald isn't as exactly a ticket to fantasy stardom either.  Just ask every Cards WR not named Boldin.  Rating: 2.

No. 20 -- Kendall Wright, WR, Titans.  RG3's favorite target at Baylor won't necessarily claim a starting job in his rookie year, as long as Kenny Britt and Nate Washington are healthy.  Even if he cracks the lineup, his ceiling is fairly low in a rush-oriented offense piloted by either Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker.  Rating: 2.

No. 22 -- Brandon Weeden, QB, Browns.  I haven't watched much (any) tape on OSU's passer, but it's really not that complicated.   Weeden most likely will hold a clipboard behind Colt McCoy on the sidelines in Cleveland for most or all of his rookie season.  Rating: 1

No. 30 -- A.J. Jenkins, WR, 49ers.  Jenkins definitely has speed to burn, but the Illinois product will be competing for balls with Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and Vernon Davis.  And Alex Smith isn't exactly Tom Brady.  I don't think we'll see many Jenkins highlights on the Red Zone Channel this fall.  Rating: 2.

No. 31 -- Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers.  Tampa Bay coveted Trent Richardson, but Martin is a heck of a consolation prize.  The Boise State workhorse will likely seize the lead role in the Bucs' mediocre backfield immediately.  He's not considered explosive, but runs tough between the tackles.  He could be a goal-line stud.  Rating: 4.

No. 32 -- David Wilson, RB, Giants.  The ACC Player of the Year is small in stature, but extremely explosive.  He's a good receiver out of the backfield or in the slot, but the Giants don't seem like the perfect fit for him.  He won't take over the departed Brandon Jacobs' power role, but rather will be more of a complementary back to Ahmad Bradshaw.  Rating: 3.

No doubt, my projections will change over the next few months.  But for now, that's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

It's a long offseason, Fools. But at least the teams and players are tossing us a bone and moving around, giving us something to ponder while we await the 2012 season.

Once again, the Fantasy Fools will keep a running tab of all the moves of note among offensive playmakers until Opening Weekend. We won't report the rumors, or the players that re-sign with their current teams. Just the confirmed trades and free agent signings.

Here are the moves as of March 14...


QBs
Peyton Manning -- Set loose by the Colts. Playing the field.
Kyle Orton, Cowboys -- Former Bronco gives Dallas a legit backup for Romo.
Jason Campbell, Bears -- Raiders' free agent signs with Chicago to backup Cutler.
Chad Henne, Jags -- Heads north from Miami to mess with Blaine Gabbert's head.

RBs
Peyton Hillis, Chiefs -- Will try to rebound in Kansas City after a miserable year in Cleveland.
Le'Ron McClain, Chargers -- Former Chief and Raven heads to San Diego to add another TD poacher to the mix.

WRs
Brandon Marshall, Bears -- Traded by the Dolphins to the Bears, to be reunited with Jay Cutler -- assuming he can stay out of trouble.
Vincent Jackson, Bucs -- Left Chargers for a mongo 5-year contract with Tampa Bay.
Laurent Robinson, Jaguars -- Cashed in on his unexpected success in Dallas with a big deal from Jacksonville.
Pierre Garcon, Redskins -- Left Indy for Washington. Will instantly become RG3's top receiver.
Robert Meachem, Chargers -- Left Saints for a 4-year deal with San Diego.
Josh Morgan, Redskins -- Former disappointing 49er will now disappoint as a Redskin.

TEs
Kevin Boss -- Released by the Raiders.
Martellus Bennett, Giants -- Underachieving Cowboy takes his big mouth and 2 catches-per-game to New York.

Who says lightning can't strike twice?

I'm very proud and humbled to report that the Fantasy Sports Writers Association has voted me its "Football Writer of the Year," for the second consecutive year. Apparently, this is the first time that's happened. I was also the first to be a finalist two years running.

In addition, one of my columns was voted "Best Humor Column" of the year, across all sports. If you're interested, it's this one. (It was funnier two months ago...)

I didn't prepare a speech, but I'd like to thank the FSWA, the Hollywood Foreign Press and all the little gurus out there who made this possible.

The official press release, which includes winners in other categories and sports, is here.

Hope you're having a great off-season! So far, so good, for yours truly.

I'm pleased, honored (and quite a bit shocked) to announce that I have once again been named one of three finalists for "Football Writer of the Year" by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. This is the most prestigious award in the biz, and apparently I am the first to have been named a finalist in consecutive years.

Am I being punked? All this time I was thinking last year was just a big mix-up.
Surely either Brad Evans or Alessandro Miglio will win the trophy this year; but it's awesome to be in their company.

I am also a finalist for "Best Humor Article" of the year, which is funny.

Here's the official announcement, if you'd like to see more.

Thanks to Fools everywhere for your support and encouragement. We'll find out next Tuesday night who the winners are.

Hindsight may be 20/20. But hindsight armed with statistics is just brutal.

What seems so obvious now – of course Victor Cruz was poised for a breakout year; didn’t you see him tear it up in the preseason? – wasn’t quite so crystal clear to most of us just five short months ago.

It’s all part of our elusive quest for the perfect draft, the Holy Grail of fantasy football. One of these days, I’m going to achieve it. Probably right after I cure cancer, win the lottery and get stalked by Mila Kunis.


Until then, I’ll keep torturing myself – and my readers – by exploring what could have been had we made all the right moves during our preseason draft. Yes, it’s time for my oft-imitated, always-controversial, yet magically delicious 2011 Perfect Draft: The Final Countdown.

As usual, we operate under a few key assumptions:

1. We’re in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one defense/special teams.
2. We are drafting from the middle (fifth) position in a zig-zag format, meaning Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Ray Rice will be gone by the time we pick.
3. The preseason average draft position (ADP) of each player – according to multiple mock draft sites canvassed during early September – is used to determine the most valuable selections in each round;
4. Since all drafts play out differently, we’ll need a little luck along the way.

And last, in the spirit of truth, justice and the Tebow Way, our goal is nothing short of total domination and the abject humiliation of our opponents.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2011 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected…

Round 1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. Fantasy’s most reliable tailback scored at least one TD in every game, except Weeks 11 and 16. That last one may still be tormenting some owners, but no running back carried more teams to the postseason than Shady.

Round 2. Drew Brees, QB, Saints. Passing on Aaron Rodgers in the first round might sting, until you realize who’s waiting here. In the season’s second half, Brees turned it up a notch and never let up.

Round 3. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers. He fizzled a bit down the stretch while Ben Roethlisberger was hobbling; but Wallace’s play-making services are always welcome on our “perfect” roster.

Round 4. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots. Welker has had some impressive seasons, but this one was truly special. In point-per-reception (PPR) formats, Tom Brady’s favorite target is fantasy gold.

Round 5. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills. He was an absolute beast until he pulled up lame in Week 11. We’ll enjoy the ride while we can.

Round 6. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Arguably this year’s most underrated fantasy star, Lynch scored at least one TD in 11 consecutive weeks on his way to his first Top 5 finish.

Round 7. Matt Stafford, QB, Lions. Stockpiling elite quarterbacks is fun, even though we’ll rarely start them. At least we keep Stafford’s 41 scoring strikes off our opponents’ rosters.

Round 8. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. He barely cracked the Top 70 receiver ranks last season, which is why Smith came so cheap this year. Besides, we knew he’d have to fight through the growing pains of a rookie quarterback who didn’t have the benefit of a full training camp. Uh, not so much.

Round 9. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. Brees spread the ball around liberally amongst his wideouts, but he played favorites with his tight end. Graham put together a monster season eclipsed only by our next pick.

Round 10. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. My choice for Fantasy MVP will give this squad a 10 to 15 point advantage at his position most weeks (especially since we won’t have to face Graham).

Round 11. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders. When Darren McFadden went down in Week 7, Bush was expected to be an interim solution. Instead, he carried the load the rest of the season and finished within the Top 10 ranks.

Round 12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. “Mr. Big Play” amassed 15 touchdowns (second only to Calvin Johnson among wide receivers), including scoring receptions of 36, 37, 40, 50, 55, 58, 84 and 93 yards. If we can’t have Rodgers, it’s nice consolation to secure the services of his most prolific receiver.

Round 13. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints. New Orleans’ prized free-agent acquisition combined for 1,313 rushing and receiving yards and nine touchdowns, flourishing in the multi-purpose role originally designed for Reggie Bush.

Round 14. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. Rookie quarterbacks aren’t supposed to be fantasy forces, much less NFL record-breakers. Especially when they are drafted by the worst team in the league. Oh yeah; Newton was his team’s best running back, too.

Round 15: 49ers defense/special teams. In many scoring formats, the 49ers finished the season as the top-ranked unit, thanks to 38 turnovers and the second-fewest points allowed. San Francisco went undrafted in most leagues.

Round 16. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. We’ll have to tell our friends who Cruz is, but they’ll curse us in Week 3. We now own four of the top six wideouts in Fantasyland. It pays to be omniscient.

Round 17. David Akers, K, 49ers. Once again, owners who wasted an earlier pick on an “elite” kicker were out-maneuvered by those who waited patiently. While Akers had a stellar pedigree, few expected him to remain relevant once he moved cross-country.

There you have it. Piece of cake, right?

Before we close the books on another exciting/frustrating/awesome/unpredictable (circle one) fantasy season, we must take a quick stroll back through 2011 to examine the players we rooted for and against and – with as much objectivity as we can muster – give credit where credit is due.

As always, our annual accolades (and condemnations) have but a few important criteria:

1. Consistency on a weekly basis is next to godliness.
2. Production during the fantasy playoffs – for our purposes, NFL Weeks 14 through 16 – is given extra weight. Players who let their owners down at the worst possible time earn our eternal scorn. (Hear that, Eli?)
3. For the most part, Week 17 is dead to us. (Sorry, Matt Flynn.)

Without further ado, I am pleased to present the 2011 Biro’s Heroes & Zeros Awards:

Most Valuable Player: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots. I made my case for Gronkowski in a column three weeks ago, in which I examined the disproportionate advantage he gave his owners at the tight end position on a weekly basis. Though Aaron Rodgers might seem the obvious choice, Drew Brees was nearly his equal. LeSean McCoy was outstanding; but in any given week, other backs out-produced him. Runner-up: Rodgers, QB, Packers.

“Peerless Price Memorial” Bust of the Year: Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. A top three selection that plays every game yet scores just four stinking touchdowns is the definition of a bust. “CJ1K” started off slow and finished nearly as poorly. Runner-up: Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.

Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. Everyone knows rookie quarterbacks make awful fantasy passers, especially when they’re drafted by the worst team in the league. Apparently nobody informed Newton. Runner-up: A.J. Green, WR, Bengals.

Surprise of the Year: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks. Three years removed from fantasy respectability in Buffalo, all Lynch did was score in 11 consecutive weeks on his way to a Top 5 fantasy ranking. Runner-up: Newton.

Comeback Player of the Year: Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. He played 14 games in 2010 and barely ranked among the top 70 fantasy receivers. Enter a rookie passer, and Smith once again resides among the elite. Go figure. Runner-up: Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins.

Mr. Reliable: LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles. From Week 1 to Week 15, Shady found the end zone at least once every week but one. Until he stumbled in the fantasy postseason, no player was more consistently productive than the multi-talented McCoy. Runner-up: Brees.


Best Waiver Wire Acquisition: Victor Cruz, WR, Giants. Last season, owners plucked Brandon Lloyd off waivers and cashed in on the top wideout in Fantasyland. This year, Cruz was the game-breaking receiver everyone wished they had grabbed. Runner-up: Laurent Robinson, WR, Cowboys.

Mr. Big Play: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. Among Nelson’s 15 TD receptions were scoring strikes of 36, 37, 40, 50, 55, 58, 84 and 93 yards. Runner-up: Cruz.

Most Devastating Injury Loss: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. You know your absence is conspicuous when you take an entire franchise down with you. Runner-up: Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs.

Steal of the Draft: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions. Available in the 8th or 9th round of most 10-team drafts, Stafford delivered elite production from start to finish. You’ll pay dearly for him in next season’s draft. Runner-up: Gronkowski.

Most Overrated: Shonn Greene, RB, Jets. On a team replete with underachievers (see Mark Sanchez, Santonio Holmes), Greene is the ultimate imposter. It’s time to put to rest the notion that he will ever be a workhorse back. Runner-up: Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys.

“Thomas Jones Memorial” Most Underrated: Marshawn Lynch. Even after weeks of consistent production, his owners routinely questioned whether or not he was start-worthy. Runner-up: Eli Manning, QB, Giants.

Made Chicken Salad from Chicken Scratch: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars. With virtually no talent to support him in the Jacksonville offense, the 5’-8” bowling ball led the league in rushing and reclaimed his status among the game’s elite. Runner-up: Michael Bush, RB, Raiders.

Biggest Postseason Disappointment: Eli Manning. If his 250-yard, zero-TD, three-interception performance didn’t knock you out in Week 15, his mediocre 225-yard, one-TD, one-interception outing the following weekend surely did. Runner-up: LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers.

Too Little Too Late: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. His end-of-season statistics look respectable; but through Week 8, Rivers had just seven passing TDs and 11 interceptions. By the time he started clicking, many of the owners who were counting on Rivers were out of contention. Runner-up: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers.

Most Spectacular Bench Performance: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers. He headed into his Week 5 matchup with an injured foot and just three passing scores over his first four games. Big Ben then proceeded to amass 228 yards and five touchdowns against the Titans. Runner-up: Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (25 receiving yards, 3 TDs vs. Chargers, Week 7).

Lived Up to the Hype: Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints. My pick for “Most Likely to Succeed in 2011,” Graham was everyone’s favorite sleeper tight end coming into the season. With a little help from a guy named Brees, Graham was nearly unstoppable. Runner-up: A.J. Green.

Most Marginalized by Pathetic QB Play: Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts. The once-elite wideout was barely startable with Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky under center. Runner-up: Austin Collie, WR, Colts.

“Frisman Jackson Memorial” Irrational Exuberance Award: Devery Henderson, WR, Saints. Star-crossed fantasy owners watched Henderson post 100-plus yards and a touchdown in each of the first two games. Shouldn’t they have known, after all these years, that Henderson is the most inconsistent wideout on the planet? Runner-up: Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins.

Worst Sophomore Jinx: Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers. After a sensational rookie campaign that saw him flirt with elite status, Williams quickly became fantasy irrelevant in the Bucs’ moribund offense. Runner-up: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams.

Team Bust of the Year: Indianapolis Colts. For the first time in the modern era, you would never regret not having a Colt on your roster. What a mess. Runner-up: Cleveland Browns.

“Plaxico Burress Memorial” Bonehead of the Year: Rex Ryan, HC, Jets. Confidence is one thing. Continuing to predict Super Bowl glory as your team implodes around you is just plain asinine. Eat some humble pie over the offseason, coach. Runner-up: Rob Ryan, DC, Cowboys.

Most Likely to Succeed in 2012: DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. He’ll enter the season as the unquestioned workhorse of the Dallas offense. Provided he can stay healthy, Murray should have an outstanding sophomore season. Runner-up: Robert Griffin III, QB, Sic ‘em, Bears!

As always, I’m open to your feedback on these awards. Feel free to email me, and be sure to begin your message with “You’re an idiot because…”

Next week: The Perfect Draft: Final Cut, wraps up the season.

This was a great week to start…

QBs
Matt Stafford, Lions – Amassed an amazing 520 yards and 5 TDs, plus 2 INTs.
Matt Flynn, Packers – Put Aaron Rodgers to shame with his 480-yard, 6-TD effort, with 2 turnovers.
Drew Brees, Saints – Piled onto his NFL record with 389 yards and 5 TDs, with just 1 INT.
Eli Manning, Giants – Dominated the Cowboys with 346 yards and 3 TDs, plus 14 rushing yards, without a turnover.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Passed for 338 yards and 3 TDs, with 1 INT.
Michael Vick, Eagles – Tallied 335 passing yards and 3 TDs, plus 2 turnovers. Only 3 yards rushing, though.
Philip Rivers, Chargers – Threw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, plus an INT.

RBs
Ray Rice, Ravens – Ran for 191 yards and 2 TDs.
Michael Turner, Falcons – Barrelled over the Bucs for 172 yards and 2 TDs.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – Rushed for 57 yards and 1 TD, and caught 3 passes for 12 yards and a second score.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots – Had 2 short TD runs to go with 22 rushing yards, and caught a 53-yard pass.

WRs
Jordy Nelson, Packers – Reeled in 9 passes for 162 yards and 3 TDs.
Marques Colston, Saints – Caught 7 passes for 145 yards and 2 TDs.
Calvin Johnson, Lions – Torched the Packers with 11 catches for 244 yards and a TD.
Victor Cruz, Giants – Salsa’d his way to 178 yards and 1 TD on 6 catches.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers – His 9 receptions produced 92 yards and 2 TDs.
Percy Harvin, Vikings – Caught 10 passes for 115 yards and ran for 13 yards and 1 TD.
Malcom Floyd, Chargers – His 7 receptions were good for 127 yards and a score.
Julio Jones, Falcons – Scored twice on his 4 catches for 76 yards.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys – Took 4 balls and turned them into 61 yards and 2 TDs.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Had 9 catches for 130 yards and a TD.
Dezmon Briscoe, Buccaneers – Came out of nowhere to score twice on 8 catches for 53 yards.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – His 8 catches resulted in 108 yards and 2 TDs.
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Pulled down 7 passes for 138 yards and a score.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Tim Tebow, Broncos – Passed for 60 yards and an INT, and ran for only 16 yards, with a fumble.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Played the entire game, but only had 221 passing yards and no TDs.

RBs
Brandon Jacobs, Giants – Had just 16 yards on Sunday night.
Donald Brown, Colts – Ran for 24 yards and caught 2 passes for 15 more.
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers – Combined for just 26 yards.
Peyton Hillis, Browns – Just 30 rushing yards, and lost 3 yards on his only reception.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins – Got his chance to start and only totaled 40 yards.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Left injured after gaining just 45 total yards.
Shonn Greene, Jets – Just 55 yards on the ground.
Cedric Benson, Bengals – Ran for 51 yards and caught 2 passes for 10 more.

WRs
Santonio Holmes, Jets – Benched for most of the game and held catchless.
Greg Little, Browns – Also had a goose egg.
Mario Manningham, Giants – So did he.
Eric Decker, Broncos – Caught one 5-yard pass.
Early Doucet, Cardinals – Had a 7-yarder.
Steve Breaston, Chiefs – He had a 9-yarder.
Mike Wallace, Steelers – Held to an 11-yard catch.
Andre Johnson, Texans – Played sparingly and caught just 2 passes for 21 yards.
Pierre Garcon, Colts – He collected 22 yards on his 2 catches.
A.J. Green, Bengals – Held to 2 receptions for 26 yards.
Mike Williams, Buccaneers – Had a 31-yard catch to show for his day.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – Only 34 yards on his 3 receptions.
Santana Moss, Redskins – Limited to 3 catches for 45 yards.

TEs
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – Barely kept his streak alive with a single 8-yard reception.

Good morning, Fools, and welcome to Week 17. As I've stated all week, you shouldn't be playing your championship today. Rather, I hope you're waging a "Free for All Bowl," per this week's column.

Whatever you're playing for, here's the news you can use to emerge victorious. Keep in mind, when the inactive lists come out, you can't assume the active players will necessarily be very active. Andre Johnson, for example, is likely to be active and to start the game; but he's expected to be on a strict snap count. Also, if Detroit wins the early game, all bets are off for the Falcons in the later game.

OK, here's what we know so far:

Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Mark Ingram, James Starks, Lance Moore and Owen Daniels have all been declared inactive already.

I like Matt Flynn's chances against the Lions. He's a sneaky starting option and he's the kind of guy who typically emerges at the top of the passing rankings in Week 17.

It will be another start for Kellen Clemens, with Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley inactive for the Rams. Sorry, Brandon Lloyd owners.

Jackie Battle has been placed on IR, so look for Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones to split the backfield work. It's hard to like either (they've scored one TD between them all year), but it also wouldn't be a total surprise if one of them has a nice afternoon. If I had to bet -- and I'm glad I don't -- I'd say Jones gets the TD run.

Reggie Bush is out today, leaving the rushing duties to Daniel Thomas. He faces a strong Jets run defense, but the rookie should still have a decent day.

Jacoby Ford is expected to suit up. Wouldn't be surprised if he found his way into the end zone against the Chargers.

There's 100% chance of snow on the frozen tundra of Green Bay. Both of these teams are pass-centric, though; so it will be interesting to see how the weather affects the offensive game plans. Kevin Smith could have a very nice day for the Lions.

It will be very windy in Cleveland, with a 50% chance of rain or snow. Lousy conditions for kicking field goals, and it should put more emphasis on the runners. Mendenhall is positioned for a great game, but Peyton Hillis has a tough row to hoe against the Steelers' run D.

OK, that's it for now. Inactive tweets (@ladd_biro) coming up next. Good luck, Fools!

Here are a few snippets from my column in yesterday's Sporting News Fantasy Source:

Ben Roethlisberger is likely to make a cameo appearance in Sunday's game; but don't expect a full day's work. Though the Steelers have a potential bye week at stake, Big Ben (ankle) is expected to be watching from the sidelines by halftime. Pittsburgh also knows is can probably beat the Browns with Charlie Batch at the controls.

Tony Romo will play with his swollen right hand against the Giants, and he should be among the top passers of the day, thanks to New York's sieve-like secondary. Romo will also have his full complement of receivers, including Laurent Robinson (shoulder) at his disposal.

Kevin Kolb has been ruled out of Sunday's finale due to lingering concussion symptoms. John Skelton will make another start for the Cards.


Keep an eye on Reggie Bush's status (say, via my tweets @ladd_biro), as he is dealing with a possible knee sprain. He could be a game-time decision against the Jets. If Bush can't go, Daniel Thomas is in line for a heavy workload. Despite leaving last week's game early, the rookie is not listed on the Dolphins' Week 17 injury report. [UPDATE 12/31: Bush has been ruled out for Week 17.]

You need not worry about Michael Turner's groin (not sure that came out quite right). But you do need to be aware that if the Lions beat the Packers in the earlier game, Atlanta will be locked into the sixth seed and have little reason to go full tilt. That would be a shame, since they'll be facing the pathetic Bucs defense.

LeSean McCoy (ankle) returned to practice on Thursday, indicating that he is gearing up to play as usual against the Redskins. Since the Eagles have nothing to play for besides pride, any hiccup by McCoy could send him to the sidelines early. You have to start him, but be prepared for an early exit.

Not only won't Mark Ingram suit up Sunday, but he is in jeopardy of missing the Saints' postseason run after having a setback with his turf toe injury.

The Chiefs' backfield will be a little less crowded -- yet still not very enticing -- with the absence of Jackie Battle (foot) this weekend. Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones will split the carries, but it's hard to trust either player. They've scored one touchdown between them all season.

Both Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and Mario Manningham (knee) are expected to join Victor Cruz in the lineup against the Cowboys on Sunday night. I wouldn't bet against any of them reaching the end zone.

Andre Johnson (hamstring) is expected to play Sunday, but only 15-20 snaps. While that could be enough to find him celebrating in the end zone, I wouldn't bank on it. Ditto for Owen Daniels (knee), who will yield most, if not all, of his playing time to Joel Dreessen.

This would have been a great time for Randall Cobb to rack up meaningless stats, but a groin injury will almost certainly have him watching from the sidelines.

Billy Cundiff will be a game-time decision for the Ravens.

Here are a few snippets from my column in yesterday's Sporting News Fantasy Source:

Ben Roethlisberger is likely to make a cameo appearance in Sunday's game; but don't expect a full day's work. Though the Steelers have a potential bye week at stake, Big Ben (ankle) is expected to be watching from the sidelines by halftime. Pittsburgh also knows is can probably beat the Browns with Charlie Batch at the controls.

Tony Romo will play with his swollen right hand against the Giants, and he should be among the top passers of the day, thanks to New York's sieve-like secondary. Romo will also have his full complement of receivers, including Laurent Robinson (shoulder) at his disposal.

Kevin Kolb has been ruled out of Sunday's finale due to lingering concussion symptoms. John Skelton will make another start for the Cards.


Keep an eye on Reggie Bush's status (say, via my tweets @ladd_biro), as he is dealing with a possible knee sprain. He could be a game-time decision against the Jets. If Bush can't go, Daniel Thomas is in line for a heavy workload. Despite leaving last week's game early, the rookie is not listed on the Dolphins' Week 17 injury report. [UPDATE 12/31: Bush has been ruled out for Week 17.]

You need not worry about Michael Turner's groin (not sure that came out quite right). But you do need to be aware that if the Lions beat the Packers in the earlier game, Atlanta will be locked into the sixth seed and have little reason to go full tilt. That would be a shame, since they'll be facing the pathetic Bucs defense.

LeSean McCoy (ankle) returned to practice on Thursday, indicating that he is gearing up to play as usual against the Redskins. Since the Eagles have nothing to play for besides pride, any hiccup by McCoy could send him to the sidelines early. You have to start him, but be prepared for an early exit.

Not only won't Mark Ingram suit up Sunday, but he is in jeopardy of missing the Saints' postseason run after having a setback with his turf toe injury.

The Chiefs' backfield will be a little less crowded -- yet still not very enticing -- with the absence of Jackie Battle (foot) this weekend. Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones will split the carries, but it's hard to trust either player. They've scored one touchdown between them all season.

Both Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and Mario Manningham (knee) are expected to join Victor Cruz in the lineup against the Cowboys on Sunday night. I wouldn't bet against any of them reaching the end zone.

Andre Johnson (hamstring) is expected to play Sunday, but only 15-20 snaps. While that could be enough to find him celebrating in the end zone, I wouldn't bank on it. Ditto for Owen Daniels (knee), who will yield most, if not all, of his playing time to Joel Dreessen.

This would have been a great time for Randall Cobb to rack up meaningless stats, but a groin injury will almost certainly have him watching from the sidelines.

Billy Cundiff will be a game-time decision for the Ravens.

Hopefully this isn’t your championship weekend and you’re just playing for fun. But since all bets are off in Week 17, some obvious choices are suddenly not so obvious. Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 17 of the 2011 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bills at Patriots. He torched the Patriots for 369 yards and two TDs when these teams met way back in Week 3. Though Fitzpatrick has been mediocre most of December, he has a great chance to finish on a high note as he faces the worst pass defense in the league.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans vs. Titans. With its postseason seeding set in stone, the Texans will surely rest Arian Foster. That should leave the backfield to Tate, assuming he also isn’t reserved. Tate posted 104 yards rushing against Tennessee’s mediocre defense in Week 7, even though Foster started and played well.

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys at Giants. With everything on the line and his quarterback nursing a bruised hand, Jones will be leaned on heavily in this favorable matchup. He’s had plenty of time to rest his bum hamstring, so look for a heaping helping of Jones in Sunday night’s showdown. He collected 137 combined yards in the last meeting between the division rivals.

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints vs. Panthers. New Orleans still has a bye week on the line, so the starters should get a decent amount of action. With Lance Moore likely to sit out due to a hamstring injury, Meachem has a great chance to prosper against the Panthers’ porous secondary.


Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers at Raiders. A groin injury will likely sideline Vincent Jackson for the finale, giving Floyd an ideal opportunity to reach the end zone for the third consecutive week. Oakland’s pass defense has been pretty awful, so it should be a nice day all around for those participating in the San Diego aerial attack.

More thumbs up: QBs Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford; RBs Maurice Jones-Drew, Kahlil Bell, Rashard Mendenhall, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, DeAngelo Williams; WRs Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Nate Washington, Stevie Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Miles Austin, Laurent Robinson, Denarius Moore.

Roll ‘em back

Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos at Chiefs. Kansas City has played outstanding defense over the past two weeks, most notably against Aaron Rodgers in Week 15. Tebow generally makes up for his passing deficiencies with rushing scores, but those will be tough to come by as well. These teams are heading in opposite directions lately, making Tebow a very risky play in rowdy Arrowhead.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans at Texans. In Week 7, Houston held Johnson to a paltry 45 combined yards. Though he’s broken out of his early-season doldrums, Johnson is now dealing with a nagging ankle injury on which he’s having trouble cutting. Though the Titans still have a shot at the postseason (provided they get a lot of help), it’s hard to expect a full game, or meaningful production, from “CJ1K” against the stout Texans run defense.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams vs. 49ers. As predicted here, and virtually nowhere else, Marshawn Lynch finally punctured the 49ers’ defense for its first rushing TD of the season last weekend. Jackson won’t make it two in a row. He was held to 30 combined yards when these teams met in Week 13. It should be another ugly day to finish an ugly season for the Rams.

Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers vs. Lions. Even if Green Bay’s regular starters are allowed to play a quarter or more, Nelson should be resting comfortably on your bench. He lives and dies on big plays and limited targets, so his risk is amplified further when an early exit seems assured.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans vs. Titans. He’s expected to return from his on-again off-again hamstring injury, but he’ll be on a strict snap count. With nothing at stake for the Texans, and his fellow starters leaving early, Johnson should remain on your bench.

More thumbs down: QBs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco; RBs Donald Brown, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Tolbert, Kevin Smith, Willis McGahee, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jackie Battle, Ryan Grant; WRs Plaxico Burress, Vincent Jackson, James Jones, Lance Moore, Greg Little, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown.

Taking a flier

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots vs. Bills. The rookie led his team in rushing the last time they faced the Bills, and Ridley has gotten the most carries in the Patriots’ backfield committee over the last two games. Against the NFL’s 28th-ranked rush defense, Ridley is well positioned to have the best game of his young NFL career on Sunday.

Don’t be the bonehead who…wages your title game in Week 17 again next year. Talk to your commissioner and fellow owners now, and agree to change the schedule so you’re not stuck in this same situation next season. Championships should not be contested while many of your best players are wearing baseball caps.

This was a great week to start…

QBs
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – Gave a final kiss to his fantasy owners, with 283 passing yards and 5 TDs, plus 18 yards on the ground, without a turnover.
Drew Brees, Saints – Eclipsed Dan Marino with his 307-yard, 4-TD effort, which also came with 2 INTs.
Cam Newton, Panthers – Kept up the Superman act with 171 passing yards and 3 TDs, plus 65 rushing yards and a fourth TD.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Rallied for his team and his fantasy owners with 304 passing yards and 1 TD, plus 17 rushing yards and 2 QB plunges.
Matt Stafford, Lions – Passed for 373 yards and 3 TDs.
Matt Moore, Dolphins – Took advantage of the New England secondary with 294 passing yards and 3 TDs plus 2 turnovers.

RBs
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Found the end zone twice while rushing for 66 yards. Also added 2 receptions for 18 yards.
Kevin Smith, Lions – Combined for 61 yards and 2 TDs.

WRs
Jordy Nelson, Packers – Torched the Bears with 6 receptions for 115 yards and 2 TDs.
Brandon Marshall, Dolphins – Reeled in 7 passes for 156 yards and a score.
Victor Cruz, Giants – Turned 3 passes into 164 yards, including a 99-yard TD burst.
James Jones, Packers – Hauled in 4 passes for 50 yards and 2 scores.
Julio Jones, Falcons – Brought in 8 passes for 128 yards and 1 TD, though he lost a fumble.
Wes Welker, Patriots – Had another great PPR game with a dozen catches for 138 yards.
Roddy White, Falcons – His PPR owners loved his 11 receptions for 127 yards.

TEs
Jared Cook, Titans – Hauled in 8 passes for 169 yards and a TD.

D/STs
Bills – Returned 2 Tebow INTs for TDs, scored on an 80-yard punt return, and added 2 sacks and 4 total turnovers.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Tony Romo, Cowboys – Left in the first quarter after a hand injury, with no completions to his credit.
Alex Smith, 49ers – Passed for 179 yards, and ran for 22, without a TD or turnover.

RBs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots – Limited to 10 rushing yards.
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers – Held to 11 rushing yards against Carolina’s soft run defense.
James Starks, Packers – Returned from injury to total 19 yards.
Felix Jones, Cowboys – Limited against the Eagles to just 24 rushing yards, thanks to a tight hammy and meaningless game.
Donald Brown, Colts – Rushed for 35 yards and caught 2 passes for 13 more.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles – Uncharacteristically held to 35 rushing yards and a 10-yard catch, and was kept out of the end zone.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals – He only managed 53 yards plus an 8-yard reception.
Chris Johnson, Titans – Only 56 yards on the day.
Cedric Benson, Bengals – Just 57 rushing yards and an 8-yard catch.

WRs
Eric Decker, Broncos – Held catchless.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys – Marginalized by circumstances, only tallied a 5-yard catch.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Had only a 20-yard catch to show for his day.
Brandon Lloyd, Rams – Just 29 yards on 3 catches.
Plaxico Burress, Jets – His 3 receptions amounted to just 34 yards.
Antonio Brown, Steelers – Same for him.
Torrey Smith, Ravens – Held to 2 catches for 38 yards by Cleveland’s Joe Haden.
Mike Williams, Buccaneers – Just 4 catches for 39 yards.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers – Limited to 41 yards on 2 catches.
Steve Smith, Panthers – His team racked up 48 points, but his 23 rushing yards exceeded his receiving total (9 yards).
A.J. Green, Bengals – Ran for 25 yards and caught 2 passes for 25 more.

TEs
Owen Daniels, Texans – Held on to one 4-yard pass.

Aaron Rodgers earned his place on fantasy’s Mount Rushmore with his five-touchdown performance on Christmas night, propelling millions of gleeful owners to championship glory.

That’s the type of overwhelming firepower you’re dreaming of when you invest a first-round pick on a quarterback. Many of those who took that gamble are celebrating today.

Then again, if all they got from Rodgers’ masterful evening was a ticket to a Week 17 Super Bowl, they’d better party hearty now. Because their All World quarterback won’t be playing much, if at all, in the Packers’ meaningless regular season finale.

That’s why your league shouldn’t be playing for all the marbles, either.

With nothing at stake next Sunday, most Packers starters will undoubtedly hit the showers after a drive or two. Expect similar non-production from Arian Foster and his fellow Texans starters, who are locked in as the AFC’s No. 3 seed. There’s no telling how long, or hard, the Saints, Lions and Falcons will be battling, either.

Meanwhile, players from non-playoff bound teams may have already checked out mentally. (See Tampa Bay.)

Allow me to recommend a more enjoyable way to wrap up the fantasy season: The Free-for-All Bowl.

It’s simple. Everyone – including those owners who sat out the postseason – sets one final starting lineup. The top overall score wins five percent of the pot. (For non-money leagues, I suppose you could play for pride. Winning, in this case, would be much like hitting a perfect drive off the 18th tee after a lousy round of golf. It fuels hope for future success.)

We’ve played the Free-for-All Bowl in a couple of my leagues for as long as I can remember, because it’s a great way to keep everyone engaged while extracting one more competitive week out of the fantasy season. And I think we can all agree that’s a worthy objective.

If you can talk your fellow owners into staging a Free-for-All Bowl next weekend, I urge you to give it a try. Otherwise, be sure to lock it into your schedule next season.

Because Week 17 is a terrible thing to waste.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

Hopefully you’ve already played, and won, your league’s championship. If you still have something on the line in Week 17, there’s not much help available on the waiver wire. But here are some marginal free agent recommendations anyway, along with two who would look better in someone else’s lineup.

Catch 'em while you can

Matt Flynn, QB, Packers. The highly regarded backup out-dueled Tom Brady in passing for 251 yards and 3 TDs last season when Rodgers was injured. Flynn has the talent, and presumably he’ll have enough receiving weapons at his disposal to make things interesting against the Lions. He’s the type of unheralded player that often tops the Week 17 passer rankings.

Evan Royster, RB, Redskins. Why not one more spin on the Redskins’ backfield rollercoaster? After combining for 147 yards against a solid run defense in his first NFL start, Royster has certainly earned another opportunity against the Eagles in Week 17. Of course, only the inscrutable Mike Shanahan knows if he’ll get the chance, and that decision hinges somewhat on Roy Helu’s health.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings. While we ponder the possibility that we may have just witnessed the beginning of the end to Adrian Peterson’s stellar career, it’s time again to make room for Gerhart on your roster. Now owned in less than half of all leagues, Gerhart will be called upon to finish off the Vikings’ disastrous season against the Bears next Sunday.


Don’t be fooled

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. There’s chatter swirling in fantasy circles that RunDMC may be preparing for a Week 17 return to the field. While anything’s possible in Oakland, the possibility seems remote at best. Even more unlikely is the notion that McFadden would deliver meaningful production in his first action since injuring his foot in Week 7, particularly when Michael Bush has performed so well in his absence.

Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals. Even the non-football fans gathered at my home on Christmas Eve were mesmerized by Simpson’s mind-boggling scoring leap. But don’t let his signature career highlight convince you that he belongs on your roster; especially with the Ravens coming to town for the Bengals’ finale.

Good morning, Fools. Merry Christmas Eve, and happy Championship Saturday!

Not sure how I feel about 13 games being played on a Saturday, with so many other things going on, but it is what it is. Let's get to the news we can use to emerge victorious this weekend. (I'm hoping none of your leagues are holding your Super Bowls in Week 17, even though I know some still make that mistake. Please, for the love of Priest Holmes, stop it!)

BIG NEWS OF THE DAY: Roy Helu has been ruled OUT of today's game due to his lower leg injuries. Evan Royster will get the start against the Vikings, which makes him a real sleeper. Minnesota's run defense is good, but not the brick wall it once was. That said, Royster has had very little experience at this level. I wouldn't rush to pin your title dreams on him, unless Helu was your last option at RB.

Big Ben is out, as he should be, against the Rams. Charlie Batch will be the Steelers' QB, which hurts Mike Wallace's and Antonio Brown's stock. I wouldn't bench Wallace ever, but Brown is expendable depending on your other options. The real beneficiary is Mendenhall, who not only has a delicious matchup, but will be leaned on even more heavily than normal given the QB situation.

After telling us all week that Felix Jones' hammy was OK, and he was just being held out of practice in an over-abundance of caution, his status is now in complete doubt. He will likely be limited under any scenario, but he may even be declared inactive if the Giants beat the Jets in the earlier game (rendering Dallas' game vs. the Eagles meaningless for postseason purposes). Regardless, Sammy Morris is slated to get a big share of the workload. Avoid Felix today.

Look for a good game from Kevin Smith, as he is very close to full health and the Lions have committed to him as their workhorse back. The DET-SD tilt should be a barn-burner, and Smith is bound to get his share of the fantasy pie.

Mark Ingram will surely be declared inactive on Monday night, leading to more split touches between Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas.

Looks like James Starks is headed back to the lineup for Sunday night's game. The rough matchup with the Bears, and the likely shared backfield with Ryan Grant (and Brandon Saine and John Kuhn), make all Packers RBs unusable fantasy options.

On the other side, it appears that Marion Barber will be held out of the game. That makes my choice of Kahlil Bell as "flier of the week" even stronger. He's a decent flex play if you're willing (or need) to gamble a bit.

Chris Johnson has been bothered by an ankle injury all week, but he is expected to suit up today vs. the Jags. You probably have to start him, though; even if he's not 100%.

Beanie Wells (knee) is questionable to play today, but most observers believe he'll start as usual in Cincinnati.

Lance Moore aggravated his hamstring in practice Friday. Not sure how serious it is, but given the Monday night start, he's now a risky option. The last thing you want now is to be left without a backup option and have to take a goose egg in one of your WR slots.

Vincent Jackson will be a game-time decision due to a groin injury. There's a very real chance he won't play in today's later game. Plan accordingly. (Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown are decent proxies if available.)

Don't expect Mario Manningham to play today. That adds value to both Nicks and Cruz, who face a tough secondary.

Brandon Marshall is fine and will play today. In fact, he should have a monster game against the Pats.

TE Anthony Fasano, however, will not play in the delicious matchup against New England's shoddy secondary.

That's it for now, Fools. I'll be tweeting (@ladd_biro) the inactives when they start announcing them. Good luck today, and have a blessed weekend.

Wondering whether or not to start Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy, or to bench Seneca Wallace and Joseph Addai in your championship game? The network bozos specialize in that kind of advice. If you’re looking for help with your real starting lineup conundrums, read on.

Here are my picks to roll, and get rolled, in Week 16 of the 2011 season.

Watch ‘em roll

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons at Saints. With seven TD passes and no interceptions over the past two weeks, Ryan is among the hottest QBs in the land. He’ll need to keep up the blistering pace on Monday night as he duels Drew Brees in what is sure to be a fantasypalooza.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Broncos at Lions. Coming off a week in which he gashed the Ravens’ elite defense for 90 yards and two scores, Mathews now gets to pick on Detroit’s vulnerable run defense. He could score as a rusher and receiver in this high-flying contest.


Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks vs. 49ers. Call it a hunch, or pure confidence in a tailback who hasn’t failed to reach the end zone since Week 3. Not only wouldn’t I sit Lynch against the NFL’s top-ranked run defense; I’ll bet he posts the first rushing score of the year on them.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets vs. Giants. The cross-town smack talk is in full swing, but the Giants’ porous secondary won’t be able to muzzle the chatter, or the scoring. Look for Burress to penetrate the end zone at least once against his former team, and add some nice yardage along the way.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles at Cowboys. He’s been hindered in recent weeks by hamstring and shoulder injuries, but Maclin appears reliably healthy now. He notched 54 yards and a TD in the teams’ first meeting, and similar or better production awaits in what should be a high-scoring rematch.

More thumbs up (excluding the no-brainers): QBs Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Matt Moore, Tim Tebow; RBs Michael Bush, Reggie Bush, Kevin Smith, Willis McGahee, Rashard Mendenhall, C.J. Spiller, Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson, Beanie Wells; WRs A.J. Green, Nate Washington, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Mike Williams (Bucs), Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Santonio Holmes.

Roll ‘em back

Rex Grossman, QB, Redskins vs. Vikings. Grossman is at the top of many sleeper lists this week since he’ll be facing Minnesota’s generous secondary. That might make sense if (a) he hadn’t underachieved in other juicy matchups, and (b) he didn’t have the capacity to implode at any given moment. Don’t pin your title hopes on one of the most unreliable passers on the planet.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers vs. Buccaneers. In three of his last four games, Williams has scored at least once and rushed for 61 or more yards. But he stunk it up in the other contest, in Tampa Bay. Unless Williams breaks another long TD run Sunday, you may be left cursing Cam Newton for stealing all the goal-line glory.

Roy Helu, RB, Redskins vs. Vikings. A lower leg injury presumably was the cause of his poor productivity last week, and it could limit his touches on Sunday, too. You know how skittish Mike Shanahan can be with his rushers. Evan Royster could be this week’s favored son. Helu comes with considerable risk against a solid run defense.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens vs. Browns. With news that Anquan Boldin is out due to knee surgery, Smith will be the primary receiver in this matchup. That means he’ll be blanketed by Joe Haden, who is playing at an elite level.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, Rams at Steelers. Whether or not Sam Bradford (ankle) suits up, Lloyd can’t be trusted against the stingiest pass defense in the league.

More thumbs down: QBs Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer; RBs Marion Barber, Steven Jackson, Donald Brown, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Toby Gerhart, Jonathan Stewart, Peyton Hillis, Jackie Battle, Ben Tate, Brandon Jacobs; WRs Eric Decker, Greg Little, Steve Breaston, Reggie Wayne, Denarius Moore.

Taking a flier

Kahlil Bell, RB, Bears at Packers. Looking for a sneaky flex play? Marion Barber is quickly wearing out his welcome in Chicago, and he’s been sitting out practice this week with a calf injury. Green Bay has coughed up at least one rushing TD per game for six straight weeks. Bell is a decent bet to make it seven.

Don’t be the bonehead who…heads out for last-minute Christmas shopping and forgets that Saturday is the new Sunday. A full slate of 13 games will be played on Christmas Eve this year. Be sure to lock in your championship game lineup by Saturday morning.

This was a great week to start…

QBs
Drew Brees, Saints – Had a monster game with 412 passing yards and 5, count ‘em, 5 TDs, with no INTs and one fumble.
Matt Stafford, Lions – Passed for 391 yards and 4 TDs, with a fumble and no INTs.
Tony Romo, Cowboys – Threw for 249 yards and 3 TDs and ran in a 4th TD, with just one lost fumble.
Tom Brady, Patriots – Passed for 320 yards and 2 TDs, and ran in a 3rd score.
Matt Ryan, Falcons – Passed for 224 yards and 3 TDs.

RBs
LeSean McCoy, Eagles – Rushed for 102 yards and a TD trifecta. Also lost a fumble.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins – Burst through the Bills for 203 rushing yards and a TD, but lost a fumble.
C.J. Spiller, Bills – Ran for 91 yards and a TD, and reeled in 9 passes for 76 yards and a second score.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Gained 90 yards on the ground with 2 TDs, plus 2 receptions for 19 yards.
Donald Brown, Colts – Rumbled for 161 yards and a game-clinching TD.
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – His 2 TD runs made up for just 47 combined yards.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings – Only ran for 12 yards, but caught 4 passes for 46 yards and 2 TDs.

WRs
Calvin Johnson, Lions – Broke out of his slump with 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TDs.
Roddy White, Falcons – Reeled in 10 passes for 135 yards and 2 TDs.
Lance Moore, Saints – Scored twice on his 5 receptions for 91 yards.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Pulled down 8 catches for 155 yards and a score.

TEs
Brent Celek, Eagles – Hauled in 5 passes for 156 yards and a score.
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – Did his best Gronkowski imitation, with 9 receptions for 129 yards and a TD.

D/STs
Seahawks – Returned 2 interceptions for scores while registering 4 sacks and 5 total turnovers.
Falcons – Forced 3 turnovers, amassed 5 sacks and returned a fumble for a TD while holding the Jags to 7 offensive points.

This was a great week to play against…

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – The hobbled QB mustered 330 yards, but no TDs and 4 turnovers.
Matt Hasselbeck, Titans – Despite the juicy matchup, only tossed 223 yards and 2 INTs, without a score, and gave way to Jake Locker again.
Eli Manning, Giants – Coughed up 3 INTs while passing for 257 yards and no scores (though it wasn’t all his fault).
Andy Dalton, Bengals – Wasted a great matchup by throwing for just 179 yards, no TDs and 1 INT.

RBs
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers – Held to 21 rushing yards.
Marion Barber, Bears – Limited to 33 yards.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants – So was he.
Kevin Smith, Lions – Led Lions rushers with just 43 yards, plus a 3-yard catch.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Out-performed by Toby Gerhart, with just 60 rushing yards in his return.

WRs
Mike Williams, Buccaneers – Laid a goose egg against the Cowboys.
Percy Harvin, Vikings – Turned 3 receptions into just 8 yards.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks – Had a 13-yarder for the day.
Denarius Moore, Raiders – Returned from injury to catch just 2 passes for 13 yards, and he ran for 13 more.
Johnny Knox, Bears – Had a 15-yard catch, and fumble, before absorbing a stomach-turning hit.
Eric Decker, Broncos – Held to a 22-yard reception.
Pierre Garcon, Colts – Ran for 8 yards and caught 2 passes for 24 yards.
DeSean Jackson, Eagles – Just 28 yards and 2 receptions.
Jordy Nelson, Packers – He only had 29 yards on his 2 catches.
Wes Welker, Patriots – Just 4 for 41 yards against the Broncos.

TEs
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – Just one 14-yard catch.
Antonio Gates, Chargers – Limited to 2 catches for 31 yards.

Upsets made headlines across the NFL this week. So it should come as no surprise that several top-seeded fantasy teams were sent packing as well.

Who could have imagined that the lowly Chiefs would spoil the Packers’ march to perfection? Even more inconceivable was a scoreless first half performance by Aaron Rodgers and the most prolific offense in the NFL.

Rodgers managed to finish with respectable fantasy numbers, but Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady and Tony Romo put him to shame when it counted most.

Remarkably, three of the top seeds in my four leagues went down to defeat this weekend, thanks to uncharacteristically pedestrian performances from such stalwarts as Rodgers, Eli Manning, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jordy Nelson, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates. Greg Jennings’ absence hurt as well.

Hey, even the Colts had to win some time, right?

If your fantasy season ended more abruptly than expected due to poorly timed swoons from your key starters, I feel your pain. Over the years, I’ve steamrolled into the playoffs with a seemingly indestructible team, only to watch in vain as my studs wilted on the field.

For every Calvin Johnson owner exulting in his receiver’s overpowering performance against the Raiders, there’s another owner wondering why Megatron had to break out of his mini-slump this weekend. We’ve all been there, buddy.

Ultimate success in Fantasyland rarely comes by accident; but just as rarely is it achieved without a dollop of luck along the way.

Losers, keep your chin up. Momma said there’d be days like this. Winners, don’t get too cocky. Things change quickly around here.

FREE AGENT PICKS AND PANS

Now that the fantasy postseason is upon us, your starting roster should be fairly settled. But a little tweaking here or there, if only to keep your competition from improving, might still be in order. Here’s a look at a couple of players that could help in the final weeks, and a couple that won’t.

Catch ‘em while you can

Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins. I can’t imagine any scenario in which a title-contending fantasy team would need to resort to a flier at the quarterback position. But if you’re the rare exception, Moore is your man. Not only did he fare well in the snowy conditions of Buffalo on Sunday, but he’ll face the ragtag Patriots secondary next weekend.

Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. His career-best game (156 yards, 1 TD) came against a solid Jets secondary and included receptions of 13, 26, 38 and 73 yards. Now that Michael Vick is reasonably healthy, Celek is a viable receiving option, especially if DeSean Jackson’s elbow injury limits his playing time.


Don’t be fooled

Kahlil Bell, RB, Bears. It’s little surprise that after Marion Barber’s costly mistakes in Week 14, and his modest production Sunday against the Seahawks, Bell was given a chance to shine. The second-year back took advantage of his opportunity, but only if you were banking on Barber should Bell even be a consideration.

Donald Brown, RB, Colts. If you have to own a Colt tailback, Brown is the guy you want. Fortunately, nobody’s forcing you to own one. His 80-yard touchdown run against the Titans was a thing of beauty; but the highlights for this offense, and this running game in particular, are few and far between.

Greg Little, WR, Browns. The rookie flashed some promise earlier in the season, but his size and talent have mostly been squandered in Cleveland’s moribund offense. He broke loose on a 76-yard scoring reception against the Cardinals, which gave him a career-high 131-yard, one-touchdown game. Keep him on your radar for next season’s draft.

It's the most wonderful time of the year: Christmas and the fantasy postseason! It just doesn't get any better than this.

Let's scope out the latest news across Fantasyland so we're as well-informed as possible heading into our playoff contests.

Big Ben has been limited in practice and you know he's going to do everything in his power to play on Monday night. But you just can't take the chance that he sits, unless Alex Smith is your backup (and he doesn't exactly provide much comfort). To me, starting Roethlisberger is out of the question. But what about his receivers? Mike Wallace has to start, no matter what; but Antonio Brown is a much bigger question mark. I'm still reserving him. Emmanuel Sanders has already been ruled out.

(On a positive note, for Steelers fans, All Pro MLB Patrick Willis will likely not play for the 49ers on Monday night. Willis is the best defender on the team, perhaps in the NFL, and nobody can fill his cleats.)

John Skelton will be back under center for the Cards, with Kolb (concussion) out. You still have to start Fitz.

Sam Bradford is highly unlikely to play, leaving Kellen Clemens as the Rams' starter. If that doesn't prompt you to play the Bengals defense, I'm not sure what will. That's very bad news for Brandon Lloyd too.

Adrian Peterson is expected to be active. Even though there's talk of limiting his touches, you have to start him.

Mark Ingram has been ruled out for the Saints. Pierre Thomas has been getting the bulk of the goal line carries, Chris Ivory runs between the 20s and Darren Sproles does a little bit of everything. Makes for a very messy and unpredictable fantasy situation.

Looks like Brandon Saine may join James Starks on the inactive list today, leaving Ryan Grant and John Kuhn as the only healthy backs for Green Bay. Good news for those wanting/needing to start Grant today.

Kevin Smith is expected to suit up today, but I wouldn't touch him, even against the Raiders. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams take too many carries.

Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to play against the Redskins. Assuming he made curfew last night, he should play the entire game, limiting Brandon Jacobs' upside.

Deion Branch won't play today. Gee, you think Gronkowski might get more involved in the game plan now?

Andre Johnson is out again.

Good luck, Fools! Make it a 200-point day!