Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres, 07/03/2013, at Fenway Park ... Find Tickets

 
Text size +

Words With Frenz mailbag: Aaron Hernandez not the only story in the AFC East

Posted by Erik Frenz June 28, 2013 04:45 PM

The news around the arrest of former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has captivated the nation, as fans, media members and former players weigh in with their thoughts.

But believe it or not, there are other things going on in a division with three other teams in it.

With the Dolphins signing every free-agent under the Sun, the Bills dealing without their best defensive player and so much more going on around the AFC East, there's plenty else to talk about.

So let's take a look at what's on the reader's minds this week.

You mean, the Patriots have a defense? From the sound of it, they only have an offense, and that offense is going to really suck next year.

patriots pass d first 9 final 7.pngAll kidding aside, the Patriots defense improved greatly over the course of the 2012 season, and didn't even look like the same defense by season's end.

Once players had stopped jumbling about, things settled down.

With a front seven that returns six starters, and a secondary that returns all of its major players from last season minus safety Patrick Chung, there's a lot of continuity on the defense for the first time in a long time.

I won't guess what ranking the defense will have, because those are superficial and sometimes misleading in the grand scheme of things, but the pass defense can be much better than it's been in year's past as long as the unit continues to grow together.

The only sure-fire starters on this team in the passing game are Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski. Beyond that, it's largely a mystery.

They have been adding depth at tight end like wildfire for the past two years, so if they want to keep things the same, they could continue with a two-tight end offense, but the only reason they implemented it so heavily in the first place was because they had both Hernandez and Gronkowski.

Just like the defense, the offense may not have a "base" look in 2013.

It's more likely they'll mix it up between personnel groups until they find the group that makes them the toughest to defend.

One of the Patriots' biggest strengths over the past few years has been their ability to create mismatches from their two-tight end set depending on how a defense matched personnel -- checking to a run against nickel formations, or throwing the ball when the tight ends were matched up with linebackers. At present, it doesn't look like the Patriots have a similar matchup threat to Hernandez on the roster.

This is the big question the Dolphins have faced this offseason: have they done enough on the offensive line to protect Ryan Tannehill?

All those new weapons at the skill positions won't do much good if Tannehill is constantly on his back.

First, the question at hand.

Tannehill was under pressure on 30.6 percent of his drop-backs in 2012, which ranked 15th out of 27 quarterbacks in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. After losing left tackle Jake Long in free agency, the Dolphins signed right tackle Tyson Clabo, and are moving right tackle Jonathan Martin to the left side.

jonathan martin at both spots.pngMartin gave up more pressure on a per-snap basis at left tackle than right tackle, and while there's some debate as to the left tackle as the more important of the two spots, it's fair to wonder if the Dolphins got worse in pass protection this offseason.

There's a larger discussion here, though. The Dolphins witnessed Tannehill work some magic under pressure in 2012, as he ranked second in the NFL in accuracy percentage while under pressure. Part of his success was a result of his abilities in throwing on the move.

Certainly, the Dolphins would rather him not be under pressure, and Tannehill got knocked around a bit even with Martin playing on the right side.

There are other ways to buy time for Tannehill when he drops back to throw.

Some designed bootlegs can take advantage of his athleticism and get him away from pressure. The Dolphins must also be able to run the ball effectively, and could utilize some draw plays to get the defense to think twice about sending their rushers up the field.

If Tannehill faces consistent pressure, though, last season's numbers indicate he's up to the challenge.

More importantly than adjusting to the preponderance of pass-catching tight ends in the NFL, the Dolphins did what was best for their defense.

Both Kevin Burnett and Karlos Dansby were brought in to help execute the 3-4 defense, which calls for stay-at-home linebackers that defend the run well and can do some work in zone coverage. With Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe, though, the Dolphins think they have found more athleticism and speed at linebacker to help them execute a more aggressive scheme -- the two new linebackers are each three years younger than the linebacker they were brought in to replace.

According to PFF, the Dolphins defense blitzed on 38.7 percent of passing snaps in 2012, over the league average of 31.5 percent. Burnett and Dansby only rushed the passer on 10.4 and 11.2 percent of snaps, whereas Wheeler and Ellerbe rushed on and 12.8 percent and 13.4 percent, respectively.

An interesting chart from PFF details the strengths and weaknesses of all four linebackers, and we get a sense of why the Dolphins made the moves they did.

the linebacker switches.png

The Dolphins could be incredibly versatile on defense this year, and the athletic abilities of Wheeler and Ellerbe figure to contribute in that respect.

Why Byrd's contract still isn't done remains something of a mystery to me.

Look at the contract that safety Dashon Goldson signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a comparison for what Byrd could earn. According to sports contracts website Spotrac, Goldson's contract is worth $41.5 million over the span of five years ($8.3 million per year), but all $18 million of his guaranteed money is earned in the first two years of the contract.

The Bills have roughly $16 million in cap space to work with for 2013, which is more than enough to work with. They are on the hook for $6.916 million guaranteed to Byrd on the franchise tag, which locks in if they don't get a long-term deal done for Byrd before July 14. Another $2 million in 2013 guarantees on top of what they'd already be giving him on the franchise tag would add up $8.916 million—roughly Goldson's 2013 guarantees. Where it might become tricky is next year, when the Bills are currently on the books for $114.3 million in salaries. That's roughly $8.7 million shy of this year's cap, which would be all but gone after signing Byrd.

The Bills have a few other important free-agents coming up, including center Eric Wood and tight end Scott Chandler, but so what? They can roll over some of their cap space from this year to help give them a little more room to work with. They could re-work a contract or two, as well, and could open up some more space by releasing wide receiver Brad Smith, who's set to count for $3.75 million against the cap in 2013 and $4 million in 2014. The Bills aren't held accountable for being under the 2014 cap until next year, so there's plenty of time for them to restructure a contract or two if they find one worth re-doing.

Got room for one more.

Before I write another word: Any sentence written about Dowling, at this point, comes with an implied "if he can stay healthy" attached somewhere in there.

He's going to have to really turn heads if he wants to make an impact as anything more than a nickel or dime defensive back. The Patriots have two cornerback spots locked down with Aqib Talib on the outside and Kyle Arrington in the slot, which leaves room for another outside corner and two more corners for depth.

Second-year cornerback Alfonzo Dennard played very well when given the opportunity, and was part of the aforementioned uptick in their performance down the stretch. Former Rutgers cornerback Logan Ryan was drafted in the third round, and could make a push for playing time.

Dowling will have some stiff competition, but it seems he is rising to the occasion. While we should take OTA observations with a grain of salt, he stood out in the eyes of ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss.

At 6'1" and 210 pounds, Dowling is the biggest corner on the Patriots roster and has the tools to be a solid man cover cornerback. The Patriots thought highly enough of him to give him the start in the first two games of his rookie season, but those were the last two games he'd play that year after he suffered a hip injury.

Expectations were still high for Dowling entering his second year, as he had fully recovered from the injury, but he was slowed down in training camp by an injury before working his way back into the lineup. He earned 37 snaps in the season-opener against the Titans, but earned just 46 snaps the rest of the way out, before landing on injured reserve yet again with a torn quadriceps.

Dowling has just one year left on his rookie contract, and the Patriots just gave Kyle Arrington a four-year, $16 million contract this offseason, and will also have to address Aqib Talib once again next offseason.

Without a doubt, 2013 is a make-or-break year for Dowling.

Alright, everyone, thanks for the questions! Anything else can be asked in the comments, or hit me up on Twitter at the link below.


Thoughts on what Aaron Hernandez's arrest could mean for the Patriots

Posted by Erik Frenz June 27, 2013 07:00 AM

2013-06-26T182416Z_1281364795_GM1E96R06JJ01_RTRMADP_3_USA-PATRIOTS-HERNANDEZ-7412.jpg

Photo by Dominic Reuter/REUTERS

The Patriots released Aaron Hernandez less than two hours after he was escorted out of his house in handcuffs with his arms behind his back and under his v-neck white t-shirt in an image that's ingrained in everyone's mind at this point.

I posted my immediate analysis on Bleacher Report, but here are some extra thoughts that others may not be talking about.

  • Hernandez is going to be tough to replace, but the Patriots got by without him for six games in 2012, and went 5-1 in those games. They lost to the Cardinals, when he went down with a high ankle sprain in the first half, and they lost to the Seahawks in his first game back from that injury, where he was clearly not 100 percent (yet somehow managed to make this amazing catch). They were able to put up 2,686 total yards in those games: 288.3 passing yards per game (season average of 291.4), and 159.8 rushing (season average of 136.5).
  • patriots TEs combine numbers.png
  • One big reason Hernandez will be tough to replace is his size and athleticism, so how do the other tight ends on the roster measure up? As mentioned in last week's mailbag, Zach Sudfeld has turned heads at OTAs and minicamps, and has comparable measurables.
  • In recent years, the Patriots have not been quite as bashful about re-signing key players before their contracts run up. Sure, they had classic standoffs with Logan Mankins and Wes Welker, but in re-signing Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have proven they're willing to go to the bargaining table early for players who are important to the franchise. Mayo has been a shining beacon of what happens when that works to the Patriots advantage, but it's come back to bite them with Hernandez and Gronkowski. It's fair to wonder if this will influence the Patriots future thinking on such matters, but every situation is different, and very few (if any) others are like Hernandez's.
  • free agents.png
  • On that note, here's a chart of the big-name upcoming free agents the Patriots will have to re-sign or replace in upcoming years.
  • The Patriots had more rush attempts than any team other than the Seattle Seahawks last season. They also ran more total plays than any team in NFL history besides the 1994 Patriots, and fell short of their mark by just eight plays. They still ran 145 more pass plays than running plays. That being said, the running game was a noticeably bigger part of the offense in 2012 than recent years. They have a young core of backs in Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden, to which they added LeGarrette Blount in a trade with the Buccaneers. With one of the better offensive lines in football, the Patriots have all the resources they need to rely more on the run this year if they need.
  • Here's colleague Ben Volin's story on the salary cap implications of the Patriots cutting Hernandez. To summarize, this is what happens: Hernandez's cap hit increases to $5.092 million in 2013 and $7.5 million in 2014. They already gave him $6 million up front and $3.25 million in 2013 as part of his $12.5 million signing bonus, and they will try to recoup some of that money and to void the rest of his contract including the final installment of $3.25 million due to Hernandez next year. Some seem to think the Patriots will not be able to void out the contract, but the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (Article 4, Section 9), which says that a "forfeitable breach" has taken place when a player "is unavailable to the team due to conduct by him that results in his incarceration." There will likely be a lot of debate between the Patriots, the NFL and the NFLPA as to what exactly that means, and what it means for the Patriots ability to recoup some of the money they paid Hernandez and avoid paying him some of the money they owe him.
  • A lot's been made of how the avalanche of changes this offseason will affect Tom Brady -- outside of Rob Gronkowski, Brady threw just 46 of his 401 completed passes in 2012 to receivers currently on the Patriots roster. Two figureheads that are not in focus right now, that should be, are Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. Specifically, Belichick has engineered this two tight end set for the past three years. They have stockpiled the depth at tight end in that time. Will their past moves pay off in replacing Hernandez? Will they have to change their offense, evolving even further than they had planned? Can McDaniels work up some of the offensive magic that made his services desired in a rare reunion tour in New England? Brady will be under close watch in how he gets on the same page with these new receivers, but Belichick and McDaniels have to get back to the drawing board, and fast, if this offense is to keep moving.


Rex Ryan should make best QB decision for the Jets, not players

Posted by Erik Frenz June 26, 2013 07:00 AM
Stephan Savoia/AP Photo
The battle wages on as to who should be the Jets starting quarterback: Mark Sanchez or Geno Smith.

There are positives and negatives to either decision, but Jets center Nick Mangold recently said he thinks Sanchez gives the team the best chance to win, and he doesn't think he's alone.

“I believe so," he told the New York Post. "I haven’t walked around with a pen and paper and taken a poll, but from the feeling I get, the locker room wants to win. Whoever gives us the best chance to do that, we want out there -- and at this point, Mark gives us that best chance."

Mangold may be right, but he's not the one charged with making that decision: that's head coach Rex Ryan's responsibility.

Rex has been known as a player's coach in the past, but with his job potentially on the line, he needs to make the decision that's best for the team, not best for his center or best for the morale of his players.

If Rex makes the right decision, and the Jets are winning, team morale will be just fine.

Sanchez has earned a majority of the first-team snaps in practice, according to ESPN, but neither he nor Geno Smith have done anything spectacular to separate themselves.

The Jets are introducing the West Coast offense under coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, and while Sanchez has experience in the system at USC, the learning curve has been steep for the rookie, Smith.

"His system at West Virginia, there’s no similarities there whatsoever," quarterback coach David Lee said on Wednesday, adding, "It’s been a brand-new world every day, just struggling with the basic things."

There's plenty of time for that to change, but even if Smith hasn't learned the offense by Week 1, there's no need to rush him in, as there will likely be an assimilation period for the offense as a whole, as players get used to a new system as well as new teammates. The Jets will field two new starting guards, a new starting tight end and a new top running back in 2013.

The receivers have been a question mark this offseason, as well.

receivers.pngStephen Hill needs to grow in his second year and quit dropping easy passes (dropped six passes according to Pro Football Focus). Santonio Holmes is in a contract year and is returning from a season-ending Lisfranc injury. Jeremy Kerley came into his own as the top receiving option on the roster last year, but he needs to have another big year to prove that wasn't a fluke. He's up for a new contract after the 2014 season.

Much like the quarterback position, wide receiver is a spot where the Jets are surrounded with long-term questions.

"Coaches brought [Sanchez] back and they kept him on this team for a reason," Holmes said, via ESPN. "He's a great leader and he's got great potential and he's excited about this season upcoming, and so am I."

Of course, the Jets may have brought Sanchez back for his $12.85 million cap hit in 2013, and the $17.15 million in dead money that would result from cutting him.

Make no mistake; after turning the ball over a league-leading 52 times over the past two years, this has to be Sanchez's last shot to prove himself as the starter. With Geno Smith in the fold, they got an early start on their new beginning.

When that new beginning comes should be decided by Rex and the coaching staff, not by the players.


Words With Frenz mailbag: Aaron Hernandez's status for 2013 looms large

Posted by Erik Frenz June 21, 2013 10:00 AM

What a crazy few days it's been for the New England Patriots.

Tight end Aaron Hernandez is under investigation involving the death of 27-year-old Odin Lloyd. Details continue to pour forth (click here for Greg Bedard's most recent report) but Patriots fans have already begun to wonder how this will affect the team.

We get to that and a bit more in this week's mailbag.

None, really.

It's too early to tell what the long-term future holds for Hernandez with the team, but it would be a shock at this point if Hernandez didn't miss some time, at least early in the season. The precedent was set with Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger two years ago, and he was suspended the first four games of the 2010 season even though he was not found guilty of any charges.

The Patriots have done all they can do at this point to address the depth at tight end, and while they might look around for another camp body, they are five deep on the depth chart entering camp. Between Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui, Brandon Fells, Zach Sudfeld and Brandon Ford, the Patriots have options if they want to continue on with the two-tight end set.

As we explored earlier this offseason, Daniel Fells was the one who got the majority of the snaps with Hernandez out in 2012. Zach Sudfeld impressed reporters at OTAs and minicamps, but at 6'7" and 255 pounds, he more closely resembles Gronkowski. He also doesn't have Hernandez's short-area quickness.

Hernandez's combination of size (6'1", 245 pounds) and speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) made him a matchup nightmare, and it would be tough to find a player that can replicate his abilities in the open field and when working the seam. Part of the problem with replacing Hernandez, though, is that it's not just about his abilities at tight end; the Patriots used him in the backfield, at fullback and elsewhere.

One under-the-radar name I'll be watching this offseason is rookie Brandon Ford. He ran a 4.66-second 40-yard dash at 6'4" and 245, so he also has the size and speed to potentially cause matchup problems.

He's no stranger to lining up all over the field, either.

Much of Hernandez's role was as a de facto receiver, so there could also be increased pressure on the wide receiver group -- as if there wasn't enough already, in the wake of Wes Welker's departure and the complete turnover of the position.

A three-receiver set could feature Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson on the outsides with Danny Amendola in the slot and Gronkowski at tight end.

It's going to look different than it has in recent years, and it may not be the same Patriots offense that was good for 30-plus points a game, but they have some options and can tinker with it until they find what works best.

Well, good to see some Bills fans are cozying up to the idea of the Patriots slipping a bit this season.

To answer this question, we first have to ask how one would go about unseating the Patriots. Besides counting on injuries, or lack of continuity in their offense being a huge downfall, it's a three-step process:

  1. score points
  2. create pressure on Tom Brady
  3. score more points

The Jets took some major steps back last year, and although they added some nice pieces this offseason, they lost their best piece in Darrelle Revis. Their offense could take some steps forward under Marty Mornhinweg, but if the Patriots have weaknesses on the back end, the Jets don't have the personnel to exploit them.

To me, the race for No. 2 is down to the Bills and the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are a trendy pick because of the offseason splashes they made to add wide receiver Mike Wallace, linebackers Danell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler, cornerback Brent Grimes, tackle Tyson Clabo and others. In addition to what was a growing defense and what they hope will be a maturation year for Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins could make a big jump if things go right.

The Bills are an unconventional pick here, but there's some merit.

Thumbnail image for first-year QB HC Combos since '08.pngSome teams have done well with the new quarterback-head coach combo in their first year. The Bills already have talent on defense, and now they have a great young defensive mind in Mike Pettine to lead the charge and spice things up for what was a vanilla defense last year. They already have skill position talent on offense in running back C.J. Spiller and wide receivers Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods.

Of course, a lot of this will fall on the shoulders of EJ Manuel and whether he is up to the challenge of leading an offense his first year. Scouting reports indicate he had trouble with decision-making and going through his progressions, and that he didn't make many pre-snap checks.

The Dolphins weren't a high-scoring offense last year, but adding a bevy of receivers might help. The Bills, however, already have the offensive talent to put up points, and defensively could be better equipped to slow down Brady and the Patriots with Pettine now in charge of the defense.

I'll go with the Dolphins. Tannehill has shown the ability to make all the throws in the NFL, and if the Dolphins open up the offense, they could be fun to watch in 2013.

Keller became one of Mark Sanchez's favorite targets in the passing game, and that wasn't by mistake. From 2009 to 2011 (48 games, 38 starts) Keller was targeted on 297 of Sanchez's 1,414 throws.

He was also a frequent red zone target, with 45 of 185 targets inside the 20-yard line, the most on the team.

He could get favorable matchups if Hartline and Wallace are attracting the attention of a defense, but Keller isn't considered much of a threat as a blocker, so opposing defenses might just put a cornerback on him even when he lines up as a true tight end.

If healthy, though, Keller could be the third or fourth option in the Dolphins passing game.

That'll do for this week. Thanks for the questions, folks!


Chris Weinke thinks Tim Tebow found "best situation possible" for future as NFL quarterback

Posted by Erik Frenz June 13, 2013 12:00 PM

Tim Tebow can be a successful NFL quarterback, and he couldn't have found a better team than the New England Patriots to help him get back on the right track.

Those are the thoughts of former NFL quarterback Chris Weinke, who has been working with Tebow at IMG Sports Academy in Bradenton, Florida.

Weinke, formerly of the Carolina Panthers (2001-2006) and San Francisco 49ers (2007), has been helping Tebow improve his mechanics over the past five weeks since Tebow's release from the New York Jets.

Along with footwork, trajectory and release speed, Weinke and Tebow worked on the mental aspect of the quarterback position, as well. All in all, Weinke thinks Tebow has made strides in mechanics and consistency.

Weinke's thoughts follow.

FULL ENTRY

Gut feelings about Tim Tebow to the Patriots

Posted by Erik Frenz June 10, 2013 08:53 PM
Photo: Jack Dempsey/Associated Press
Tim Tebow's signing with the New England Patriots came in three stages in the media.

First, there was no chance it would happen.

Then, there wasn't no chance it would happen.

Then, it happened.

A report by Ed Werder of ESPN served as the coup de grâce.

I gave my thoughts on what Tebow's role will be with the Patriots, and I didn't want to write the same thing again, so here are just some quick general thoughts on Tebow signing with the Patriots.

  • How didn't I see this coming a mile away? Former protégés of Josh McDaniels have frequently found a home with the Patriots. So have former Florida Gators and protégés of Urban Meyer. Just off the top of my head, Meyer products include linebacker Brandon Spikes, defensive end Jermaine Cunningham, tight end Aaron Hernandez and wide receiver Chad Jackson. McDaniels players include Michael Hoomanawanui, wide receivers Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola and Greg Salas and linebacker/fullback Spencer Larsen.
  • In two starts against the Patriots, Tebow went 20-of-48 passing (41.7 percent) for 330 yards (6.9 YPA), with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He rushed 17 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns in those games, but only five times for 13 yards in a 45-10 playoff loss. He exceeded his 2011 per-game averages in every area except passing touchdowns.
  • Remember all that stuff I said last week about the Patriots beginning their search for a quarterback of the future? I would call this the earliest phase of that search. Let's wait until he makes the roster, but Werder added that Tebow will be given an opportunity to develop as a quarterback.
  • The Patriots would be foolish to take Tom Brady off the field and to put Tebow in at quarterback in the Wildcat, or in goal line and short-yardage situations. Not only did Brady have the second-most red zone passing touchdowns of any quarterback over the past three years, but the Patriots were also the best team at converting on third-and-2 or less. They might be more foolish to line him up at tight end and expect him to block, which he's never done well, or catch passes, which he's never done at all. The experiment on special teams didn't work, either. Tebow's versatility is overplayed, at least to this juncture. For that reason, it's entirely likely the Patriots could cut Tebow before the season begins.
  • Of course, it's never just about the role with Tebow. There's a whole element of outside scrutiny that comes with the move. As we all know, the Patriots don't like a lot of noise. Don't expect Tebow to be making a welcome press conference at Gillette Stadium any time soon, no matter how excited he is.
  • Let it be understood that he will be utilized multiple spots as the Patriots try to figure out what the best role will be for him outside of his role as a backup quarterback. This way, it won't be breaking news every time he lines up at a different spot.
  • Where do I put Tebow's chances of making the roster? I'd say 50 percent. Just so I can sit square on the fence until I see him play.
  • Final thought: if there is any chance for Tebow to be successful in the NFL, it's with the Patriots. He didn't look capable of carrying out the various other roles the Jets had in mind for him last season, but if there's any other way he can be utilized, the Patriots will find it. Most importantly, it's a situation that allows him to be out of the media eye, because that's where he'll be kept. If he can develop as an NFL quarterback, this is the situation for it: with a future Hall of Fame passer, where he won't be expected to start for at least three to four years.


What will the Patriots do at quarterback after Tom Brady?

Posted by Erik Frenz June 7, 2013 08:00 AM

brady.jpg

Photo: Stan Grossfeld/Globe Staff

"Tom Brady's not walking through that door."

Get ready to see that lede quite a bit down the road.

Of course, it won't be for some time now, especially considering the Patriots quarterback just signed an extension that keeps him in New England until he's 40.

The same age until which he has often said he would like to play.

Coincidence?

Maybe, probably, but who knows what the future holds. The Patriots are no strangers to making "the tough decision," but at that point, Brady may have a tough decision of his own regarding the future of his career.

What can the Patriots do to make sure they are the most prepared when that time comes?

They could take a page out of the Colts' book, and wait until everything comes unraveled to earn the first overall pick in the draft and take a once-in-a-decade prospect at quarterback.

Wouldn't exactly call that being "prepared," but hey, it seems to have worked for Indianapolis.

Perhaps the Patriots could have a quarterback back up Brady and learn from the future Hall of Famer before taking the job.

mallett career stats.pngThey drafted Ryan Mallett in the third round in 2011, and as we speak, he is square in the middle of his four-year rookie contract. To this point, he has not overwhelmed anyone with confidence in his practice performances, and although his preseason career got started with a bang against the Jaguars, his numbers have been fairly pedestrian overall in his two preseasons -- not to mention taking a step back in 2012.

While he has some value on the trade market (multiple teams were reported to be interested before the 2013 draft), it's fair to say the odds of him eventually replacing Brady are slim.

He is set to become a free agent after the 2014 season, so it will be up to the Patriots to make a decision on his future with the team by that point -- or sooner. At that point, however, he'll be going on 27 years old, and Brady will still have three years left on his shiny new contract extension.

Following the same path, Aaron Rodgers replaced Brett Favre at quarterback for the Packers, but he earned the starting mantle at the age of 24.

Would it be worth it to wait on Mallett? Unfortunately, the only way of finding out is in the worst of circumstances for the Patriots: an injury to Brady. This offseason is huge for Mallett, and it doesn't appear to be off to a great start according to colleague Zuri Berry, who said that Mallett "appeared to be rusty" at OTAs.

Yes, former Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel experienced similar growing pains before he was thrust into the starting role in 2008, so it's not out of the question for Mallett to turn things around. To make that the expectation, however, is false causality at its finest.

Even if Mallett shows potential this season, can the Patriots hang onto him long enough to hope that he one day beats out Brady?

That will be the question we'll ask of just about any quarterback that comes through the doors of Gillette Stadium between now and 2017.

Rarely does a quarterback transition go as smoothly as for the Colts between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, the 49ers between Joe Montana and Steve Young, or the Packers between Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

The Patriots have to continue searching for talented depth at quarterback, but the timing has to be right.

Their best bet would be to draft a quarterback in 2014. That would give the Patriots the best of both worlds: Mallett's experience and knowledge of the system would likely make him the de facto No. 2 in the event Brady is injured, while another quarterback could develop on the bench. From there, the Patriots could have an open competition for the backup spot.

One underrated tool the Patriots can use to help their transition at quarterback is the talent on offense.

They made a clear effort to focus the offense around tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski now and for the future, signing both to deals that keep them with the team through 2018 and 2019 respectively. Their offensive line remains in tact following the 2012 season, and age is not a huge concern (yet) on a line where three of five starters are under the age of 30. They have a young group of running backs, led by Stevan Ridley, that provides a serviceable punch on the ground.

Developing a talented core of receivers is the next step, and a vital one regardless of who is the Patriots' next signal-caller.

Whoever the next quarterback is, they will greatly benefit from the Patriots doing their due diligence to keep the cupboards stocked on offense now and in years to come.

At this stage, it's not necessary for the Patriots to go wild in pursuit of the heir to Brady, but it should definitely be in the back of their mind, and the contingency plan should start unfolding soon. Brady still hasn't taken his foot off the gas, but no one knows how far ahead the "Reduced Speed Limit" sign will appear.


AFC East top 25, No. 1: Patriots QB Tom Brady

Posted by Erik Frenz June 1, 2013 08:00 AM

Brady Hell Yeah - Getty.jpg

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

We have reached the conclusion of our countdown of the AFC East's top 25 players. View the whole list here.

Why Tom Brady?

I thought about just putting "duh" here, but that seemed like a copout for obvious reasons.

Instead, chew on this: Brady is the only quarterback in NFL history to throw for 34 or more touchdown passes and 12 or fewer interceptions in four career seasons. That's twice as many seasons as Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and 49ers legend Steve Young. Those single-season numbers have been achieved by only eight other quarterbacks in NFL history, and Brady has made it part of his yearly routine.

His career accomplishments read like a resumé for a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback. We all know about the three Super Bowl wins, the two Super Bowl MVPs and the two regular season MVPs, but his accomplishments span over a decade:

  • 334 career touchdown passes ranks fifth all-time
  • 2.1 career interception percentage is tied for seventh all-time
  • 63.7 career completion percentage ranks ninth all-time
  • 44,806 career passing yards ranks ninth all-time
  • NFL-record 50 touchdown passes in 2007
  • NFL-record 358 regular-season passes without an interception from 2010 to 2011
  • NFL-record 0.8 interception percentage in 2010 (for any quarterback with over eight starts in the season)

He has put together these remarkable achievements despite a constantly changing set of circumstances and players around him -- especially on the offensive line and at wide receiver over the past five years.

All those things happened in the past, but Brady is still spinning it with the best of them, ranking eighth in yards per attempt (7.6), sixth in passer rating (98.7), fourth in touchdowns (34) and first in interception percentage (1.26) last season.

He has been one of the best in late-game situations, as well. He is tied for ninth all-time with 26 career fourth-quarter comeback victories, and tied for fifth with 37 career game-winning drives when his team was not trailing in the fourth quarter.

brady deep passing bostondotcom.pngAs analysts, it's our job to nitpick, but Brady has left us with very few nits to pick except for questions about waning deep accuracy -- questions which are better addressed in the context that a) Brady hasn't had a deep threat since 2010 and b) he's been throwing more, not fewer, deep passes over the past few seasons.

There's nothing left for Brady to accomplish; at this point, anything else is simply adding to a legacy that's long been cemented.

Did you know?

Brady set a postseason record with a 92.9 completion percentage (26-of-28) against the Jaguars in the '07-'08 Divisional Round.

Bonus reading

Carve out 10 minutes to read this amazing post by Peter King of Sports Illustrated, where Brady says he has "never felt better throwing the ball."


AFC East top 25, No. 2: Dolphins DE Cameron Wake

Posted by Erik Frenz May 31, 2013 08:00 AM

wake2.png

Photo: Jim Davis/Globe Staff

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Cameron Wake?

I think the better question is "why doesn't Cameron Wake get the attention he deserves?"

The answer to that is relatively simple: he plays for a losing team, the Miami Dolphins, a team that hasn't been relevant since 2008 -- the year before Wake joined the team.

Other than that caveat, Wake has it all going for him. Wake plays one of the defensive "glamour" positions as a pass-rushing edge defender, and is one of the best at it in the game right now. He's put up monstrous numbers, with 43 sacks in his first four seasons, and is one of just seven players in NFL history to have two seasons of over 14 sacks in his first four seasons in the league.

He's also incredibly scheme flexible, having lined up in the 3-4 as an outside linebacker, and last year in the 4-3 as a defensive end. His versatility gives the Dolphins a world of options in how to execute their defensive scheme next season.

cam wake.pngStats website Pro Football Focus rated him among the best pass-rushers in the league at either spot, so the Dolphins would be getting bang for their buck without question.

The Dolphins made it a priority to improve their pass-rush by drafting DE/OLB hybrid Dion Jordan. How he fits in the defense remains to be seen, but if the two are feeding off one another, the possibilities are frightening for opposing quarterbacks. Wake could be headed for another huge season, and maybe then, he'll finally get the attention he deserves.

Did you know?

According to TurnOnTheJets.com, the New York Jets nearly signed Wake out of the CFL, before general manager Mike Tannenbaum said he didn't want him, which allowed the Dolphins to swoop in.

Bonus reading

Ben Stockwell of Pro Football Focus delivers a profile on Wake's strengths and weaknesses as a pass-rusher.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 3: Patriots DT Vince Wilfork

Posted by Erik Frenz May 30, 2013 08:00 AM

Texans Patriots Football.JPEG-01445.jpg

AP Photo

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Vince Wilfork?

The plight of Vince Wilfork will forever be the unglamorous role he plays. Even in the Patriots' 4-3 scheme, he is asked to occupy multiple blockers to free up space for his linemates.

At this point, few teams utilize a nose tackle the way the Patriots do, but nose tackles like Wilfork are a rare breed. On Grantland.com, Chris Brown -- author of The Essential Smart Football -- wrote about the Patriots defensive versatility and how Wilfork is the engine that makes everything else run effectively. The Patriots defensive scheme is one-of-a-kind, and is tailored to Wilfork's ability to be effective wherever he lines up.

Sacks are not typically the measure of solid play from Wilfork, but he logged 3.5 in 2011 and three in 2012, hitting those marks for the first time in his career. He also ranked in the top five defensive tackles in success count each of the past two years according to Advanced NFL Stats, a website which tracks the number of times a player was directly responsible for a successful play for the defense.

The Patriots are still looking to find the missing piece at defensive tackle: a solid pass-rusher who can complement Wilfork's space-eating ability when the team needs to get pressure on the quarterback. With Wilfork at one tackle spot, whoever is lining up next to him will have a much easier job as a result.

Did you know?

Wilfork might be the most honest defensive linemen in the game.

Bonus reading

Who could forget Greg Bedard's story on Wilfork after he and the Patriots dominated the Jets on Thanksgiving?

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 4: Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski

Posted by Erik Frenz May 29, 2013 08:00 AM

2013-01-13T231505Z_01_FOX114_RTRMDNP_3_NFL-PLAYOFFS-PATRIOTS.jpg

Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Rob Gronkowski?

The influx of athletic tight ends in the NFL has run rampant, but Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski set the bar -- not just by being one of the most prolific pass-catching tight ends in NFL history, but by being so much more than simply a pass-catcher.

He is a matchup nightmare.

Put a linebacker on Gronkowski, and his speed and quickness creates a mismatch in passing situations. Against a safety, his size is overwhelming, and the Patriots clearly have the advantage when running the ball in that situation.

It would be easy to put Gronkowski in this spot simply by virtue of his 38 receiving touchdowns in the first three years of his career -- the third-most for any player in the first three years of their career behind only Jerry Rice and Randy Moss -- or the fact that, according to Pro Football Focus, quarterback Tom Brady has thrown just four interceptions in his career when targeting Gronkowski.

Gronkowski's game goes much further than all that, though. He has developed into one of the better run-blocking tight ends in the game, as well. He has graded out among the top five run-blocking tight ends each of the past three years, and ranked No. 1 in 2011 according to PFF.

If Gronkowski can get healthy this offseason and stay healthy in 2013, he will likely continue his reign of terror on opposing defenses without a hitch.

Did you know?

Gronkowski's 29 red zone touchdown receptions are the most by any player over the past three years -- nine touchdowns more than second place, Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez and Saints tight end Jimmy Graham.

Bonus reading

Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus breaks down the first downs and touchdowns conversion rate for all tight ends, and not surprisingly, Gronkowski was the top tight end in a landslide.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC east top 25, No. 5: Jets DL Muhammad Wilkerson

Posted by Erik Frenz May 28, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Muhammad Wilkerson?

Texans defensive end J.J. Watt was unquestionably the best 3-4 defensive end in the NFL in 2012, but immediately behind Watt in the hierarchy of 3-4 defensive ends, though, is Muhammad Wilkerson. Were it not for Watt's incredible season, Wilkerson would have gotten his share of recognition for solid stats across the board: 70 tackles, five sacks, four pass deflections, three forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and a touchdown.

The position of 3-4 defensive end is typically regarded as less than glamorous. That's because, mostly, they are "space-eaters" whose job it is to occupy as many blockers as possible to free up the linebackers behind them to make plays. With the Jets, however, the onus is on everyone to create pressure in an aggressive one-gap style of defense under Jets head coach Rex Ryan. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilkerson logged 22 pressures, 10 hits and five sacks in 2012, all of which ranked him among the top five 3-4 defensive ends in the league.

His pass-rushing potency was not the only thing that stood out for him last year. Pro Football Focus charted him with 46 "stops" in the running game, the second-most for any 3-4 defensive end. Advanced NFL Stats gave him 71 successes on the season, the second-most for any defensive end. Thus, it seems no matter who you ask, Wilkerson was dominant in 2012.

His talent may not supersede any deficiencies on the Jets roster, but it will certainly go a long way to helping the Jets maximize the pass-rushing potential and overall effectiveness of their 3-4 defense -- or any other alignment they choose to run.

Did you know?

Wilkerson was the third player in Temple history drafted in the first round, and only the second first-rounder out of Temple to start more than 20 games.

Bonus reading

Chris Gross of TurnOnTheJets.com delivers an in-depth look at what the Jets defensive line could look like in 2013 and for years to come.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 6: Bills RB C.J. Spiller

Posted by Erik Frenz May 27, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why C.J. Spiller?

Very few players made as big of an impact while being as shunned in the game plan as Spiller.

His big play ability cannot be overstated. He earned nearly 40 percent of his rushing yards on carries of 15 yards or more, the third-highest percentage in the league according to Pro Football Focus.

c.j. spiller.pngHe had the third most total missed tackles in the league (66) despite limited touches, and by PFF's standards, he was the most elusive back in the NFL.

Sometimes, a "big play threat" at running back can be detrimental at times, when he's searching for a home run that isn't there. That can often lead to being tackled behind the line. Not for Spiller, though, who was tackled for a loss on just 16 of his 207 carries (7.7 percent). Other notable backs like Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (51 of 348, 14.6 percent), Texans running back Arian Foster (41 of 351, 11.7 percent) and former Dolphins running back Reggie Bush (31 of 227, 13.7 percent) were tackled for loss far more frequently than Spiller.

Spiller's production could increase with more opportunities in what will likely be a run-heavy offense with Doug Marrone as the head coach. If he's able to build on his stellar 2012 campaign, he'll land in the top five next year without question.

Did you know?

Spiller's average yards per carry in 2012 was higher than Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's all season long, until Week 17.

Bonus reading

Not reading, but viewing. Jonah Javad of WGRZ-2 in Buffalo conducted an interview with Spiller where the running back shared some deep thoughts on SpongeBob Squarepants.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 7: Bills S Jairus Byrd

Posted by Erik Frenz May 26, 2013 08:00 AM
Rick Scuteri/Associated Press
Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Jairus Byrd?

What more could you ask for out of a free safety than what Jairus Byrd has given the Bills in his four years with the team?

He is not only the Bills best defensive back, with a team-leading five interceptions in 2012, but he is also the AFC East's best safety -- not just for his sideline-to-sideline range, but his uncanny ability to diagnose plays and get to the right spot in a hurry.

Just ask Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who was absolutely robbed by Byrd on this throw to the sideline...

...and then again just a few minutes later (3:00 mark in the video).

Tannehill was hardly the only one who was a victim of Byrd's ball-hawking skills.

According to Pro Football Focus, Byrd allowed a passer rating of just 56.9 on the season. He was targeted 21 times in coverage and allowed 156 yards (9.8 yards per reception) without giving up a single touchdown.

New Bills defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will love Byrd's skill set, as it will allow him to run the exotic blitz packages the Jets were known for while he was the coordinator in New York. If the Bills defense creates more pressure up front, that could lead to even bigger things for Byrd.

Did you know?

Byrd was the first rookie safety to lead the league in interceptions since Vikings safety Orlando Thomas in 1995. Both players had nine picks, and both were selected with the 42nd overall pick of their respective drafts.

Bonus reading

Spotrac estimates Byrd could command a contract in the neighborhood of five years and $45 million when he becomes a free-agent in 2014.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 8: Bills WR Stevie Johnson

Posted by Erik Frenz May 25, 2013 08:00 AM

stevie j.jpg

AP Photo
Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Stevie Johnson?

Stevie Johnson erupted onto the scene in his third year in the NFL, and was just the ninth player in NFL history to log at least 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in his third year. Glancing at the list, he's in some hallowed company with the likes of Kellen Winslow Sr., Antonio Freeman, Keyshawn Johnson, Antonio Gates and others.

Stevie has been consistently productive since then, and ranks eighth in receptions, 11th in yards and ninth in touchdowns over the past three years. He has not created many big plays, though. In 2012, only 12 of his 79 receptions went for a total of 20 yards or more, and he was targeted deeper than 20 yards on just 11.8 percent of passes thrown his direction, the second-lowest in the NFL (via Pro Football Focus).

There is one hole in his game, however, when it comes to dropping the ball. He had 13 drops in 2010 and 11 drops in 2012, and his rate of dropped passes was among the 10 worst in the NFL.

He doesn't have the skill set of a true No. 1 wide receiver -- the size and speed most people look for in an outside threat -- but he has plenty of physical tools in terms of quickness, balance and body control, and along with some of the best route-running skills in the NFL and a great sense of how to get open against certain looks, Johnson is easily one of the league's most underrated pass-catchers.

Did you know?

Johnson has started more games at wide receiver than any seventh-round draft pick since Kevin Walter in 2003 (91 career starts).

Bonus reading

Cian Fahey provides probably the most in-depth breakdown of an individual player I've ever seen.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 9: Dolphins S Reshad Jones

Posted by Erik Frenz May 24, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Reshad Jones?

The Dolphins secondary has been through a lot of change in the past 10 months, losing both cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, but in 2012, safety Reshad Jones was the glue that kept it from falling apart.

Jones led the Dolphins with four interceptions last year, and also deflected nine passes, tied for second on the team. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed a passer rating of just 38 on throws into his coverage, which ranked fifth among all NFL safeties. He also gave up just one touchdown into his coverage, against Titans tight end Jared Cook.

Despite switching from free safety to strong safety, Jones improved in leaps and bounds this past season. If his career trajectory continues on this path, he'll remain one of the league's top safeties for years to come.

Did you know?

Jones was one of just three players drafted out of the SEC by general manager Jeff Ireland from 2009-2012, out of a possible 31 draft picks.

Bonus reading

I wrote on Bleacher Report about Jones' ascension to the ranks of the top safeties in the NFL.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 10: Dolphins C Mike Pouncey

Posted by Erik Frenz May 23, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Mike Pouncey?

The Dolphins offensive line could have fallen apart when the team lost left tackle Jake Long for the season in Week 13. Center Mike Pouncey is the glue that held them together, and his teammates certainly agree.

It may be because he is asked to carry out the duties of both a center and a guard. Not only does he call the protections and snap the ball, but he is frequently seen pulling out in space after the snap, an act of quickness and agility not commonly seen among centers.

Pouncey helped pave the way for Reggie Bush's two best seasons as a true running back, and although there are concerns about the Dolphins offensive line as a unit, very few have any doubt that Pouncey will continue to be a leader for the unit.

Did you know?

Mike and Maurkice Pouncey were the first twins ever to both be drafted in the first round.

Bonus reading

Alen Dumonjic of The Score breaks down the versatility Pouncey put on display, as well as some high remarks for Pouncey from Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 11: Jets LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Posted by Erik Frenz May 22, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why D'Brickashaw Ferguson?

Few offensive tackles have been as good for as long as Ferguson, while getting as little recognition.

Not only has he never missed a start, but according to Pro Football Focus, he hasn't even missed a snap since Week 17 of 2008. That's not a misprint, that's 4,830 snaps from 2009-2012.

He helped block for a rushing attack that ranked first and fourth in 2009 and 2010 respectively. In the passing game, he was the best on an offensive line that allowed quarterback Mark Sanchez to be pressured on just 23.8 percent of drop-backs those years. He ranked in the top 10 offensive tackles in PFF's pass-blocking efficiency four of the past five years.

The Jets have a lot of questions on offense, but if Ferguson plays at the same level he's shown throughout his career, left tackle should not be one of those questions.

Did you know?

Ferguson was the first offensive linemen selected by the Jets in the first round since guard Dave Cadigan in 1988.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 12: Jets C Nick Mangold

Posted by Erik Frenz May 21, 2013 08:00 AM

NickMangold.jpg

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Nick Mangold?

When head coach Eric Mangini and general manager Mike Tannenbaum took over with the New York Jets, center Nick Mangold was drafted in the first round to be a building block for the offense. In 2009, when Mangini was jettisoned and Rex Ryan was named the new head coach, Mangold was still a building block. Now, in 2012, with John Idzik taking over as GM, Mangold is still a building block.

He was voted to four consecutive Pro Bowls and was named first-team All-Pro back-to-back years in 2009 and 2010 as the anchor for a rush attack that ranked first and fourth in the NFL, respectively.

Pro Football Focus has docked Mangold for three or fewer sacks allowed in each of the past five seasons, while consistently facing top talents like Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams, Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork and Dolphins defensive tackle Randy Starks, all three of whom appear on this list.

Did you know?

Mangold was the first Ohio State offensive linemen drafted in the first round since offensive tackle Orlando Pace was taken first overall by the Rams in 1997.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 13: Patriots LB Jerod Mayo

Posted by Erik Frenz May 20, 2013 08:00 AM

wright-mayo_1024768.jpgCounting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Jerod Mayo?

Jerod Mayo has only been in the league for five years, but it sure seems like a lot longer than that. He started off with a bang at inside linebacker in the Patriots 3-4, and was voted the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2008 after leading all rookies in tackles with 128.

He was slowed down by a knee injury in 2009, but returned with a purpose and notched a league-leading 175 total tackles, adding two sacks, a forced fumble and was voted first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career.

He has had to adjust to a new position as a weak-side linebacker in the 4-3 over the past two seasons, and really came out of his shell in 2012 when he led the AFC in tackles with 147 while logging a career-high three sacks and four forced fumbles, adding an interception and a fumble recovery for good measure.

The Patriots didn't send him on the pass-rush very often in 2012, but according to Pro Football Focus, his pass-rushing productivity on a per-snap basis (14 combined pressures on 74 rushes, 18.9 percent) was on par with Von Miller (86 pressures on 436 rushes, 19.7 percent).

Despite endless changes in the Patriots defense, Mayo has remained not just a leader for the team, but one of the better linebackers in the NFL.

Did you know?

Mayo's first career interception came in the 57th game of his career. Since then, he has three interceptions in 25 games.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 14: Jets CB Antonio Cromartie

Posted by Erik Frenz May 19, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Antonio Cromartie?

When Darrelle Revis went down with a torn ACL in Week 3, a seismic shift transpired in the Jets secondary. Kyle Wilson was moved to the outside, and Antonio Cromartie became the team's No. 1 cornerback, tasked with shutting down a team's best receiver each week.

He was up to the challenge no matter who you ask.

jets d 2011 vs 2012.pngThe dropoff in the Jets' pass defense was to be expected, but was minimal overall. The Jets still were a top 10 pass defense last year in just about every major category. That is certainly a credit to Rex Ryan, but Antonio Cromartie's presence was a big part of the new game plan.

The Jets ranked fifth in the NFL against No. 1 receivers according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value on average.

Individually, Cromartie ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus' yards allowed per cover snap and sixth in cover snaps per reception allowed -- indicative that he was not only allowing very few receiving yards on average, but very few receptions to begin with.

The Jets drafted Dee Milliner in the first round, but it's Cromartie who will likely be filling the void left by relocating Revis Island.

Did you know?

Antonio Cromartie's pick-six in Week 1 against the Bills was his first in a Jets uniform, and his first since Week 3 of the 2008 season against none other than...the Jets.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 15: Bills DT Kyle Williams

Posted by Erik Frenz May 18, 2013 08:00 AM

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Kyle Williams?

The Bills have bounced between 3-4 and 4-3 fronts over the years, but Kyle Williams has found a way to remain successful, and a vital component of the Bills front seven.

His versatility has been part of what's allowed them to change their minds so much. He has lined up mostly at the 0-, 1- and 3-techniques, but has been spotted at 5-technique as well. He is a rare player with the strength to plug lanes in a two-gap scheme and the agility to split them in a one-gap scheme.

His nine tackles for loss (according to Advanced NFL Stats) tied for fifth in the NFL among defensive tackles. He also logged 45 total pressures (29 hurries 11 hits, five sacks) according to Pro Football Focus. He ranked third among defensive tackles in PFF's pass-rushing productivity metric in 2012, behind two former All-Pros in the Bengals' Geno Atkins and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh.

Williams will have an opportunity to put it all on display -- his versatility and his pass-rushing prowess -- in Mike Pettine's new hybrid defense, where he could be used for all of the above.

Did you know?

Kyle Williams has 18.5 career sacks, the most for any defensive tackle drafted in the fifth round or later since 2006, and twice as many as second on the list.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 16: Patriots LG Logan Mankins

Posted by Erik Frenz May 17, 2013 08:00 AM

mankins.jpg

Barry Chin/Globe Staff

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Logan Mankins?

Logan Mankins is the only guard on the list, and it's not hard to understand why. He is the de facto leader for the Patriots offensive line, as their physical "enforcer" on the inside. The attitude and intensity he brings to the game is comparable to legendary Patriots guard John Hannah.

That's not the only area where he is comparable to "Hog" Hannah. Just like the Hall of Fame guard, Mankins is one of the better pulling guards in the league, which has allowed the Patriots to be successful on screens and runs to the outside.

It's hard to quantify offensive line play, but in 426 snaps in pass protection, Mankins allowed just 16 pressures, tied for ninth-fewest in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus.

One important aspect is the number of games played. Up until recently, Mankins was a mark of consistency. He didn't miss his first game due to injury until 2011, his seventh year in the NFL. Considering he reportedly played the 2011 season on a torn ACL, the fact that he missed one game that year should earn him some kind of medal for valor. He did, however, miss six games due to injury in 2012.

The Patriots lost guard Donald Thomas in free-agency this offseason, so Mankins' health could be even more vital than it has been in the past.

Did you know?

Elves live in his beard.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


AFC East top 25, No. 17: Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez

Posted by Erik Frenz May 16, 2013 08:00 AM

hernandez.jpg

Jim Davis/Globe Staff

Counting down the top 25 players in the AFC East, one player at a time, one day at a time.

Why Aaron Hernandez?

With their use of two tight end formations, the New England Patriots were the team that sparked an offensive revolution in the NFL. The basis for much of that success is Aaron Hernandez.

He's not a great blocker, but he is as a matchup nightmare in the passing game for opposing defenses. He's too big for most defensive backs, and too quick for most linebackers and safeties. Whether he's lining up tight to the line, in the slot, split out wide, or even in the backfield, the Patriots are able to get more out of him because they know how to get those mismatches. Hernandez's versatility to line up in so many spots and be an offensive weapon makes the Patriots tougher to defend.

He battled through an early high-ankle sprain last season, but 10 days between games seemed to help as he found stride after Thanksgiving. He had 32 receptions for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the final five regular season games. He added another 15 receptions for 168 yards in the playoffs.

There's a lot of uncertainty for the Patriots offense in 2013, but they could ride him to big things if he can stay healthy for 16 games for the first time in his career.

Did you know?

Despite missing 10 games over the past three years, Hernandez ranks sixth in receptions and fifth in receiving touchdowns among all tight ends.

Check back every morning as we reveal one player a day on our way to No. 1 in the top 25.


Kyle Love's departure depletes depth for Patriots at defensive tackle

Posted by Erik Frenz May 15, 2013 08:43 PM

We know we can count on the Patriots for a surprise cut in training camp, but no one expects it to happen in the middle of May.

The Patriots delivered two surprises in a 48-hour span, with the separate releases of defensive tackles Brandon Deaderick on Monday, and Kyle Love on Wednesday (first reported by Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston).

We don't know much about why Deaderick was released, but we already have a good deal of information on the circumstances around Love. The fourth-year defensive tackle was waived after being designated with a non-football injury; Love's agent told Reiss that Love had been diagnosed with Type-2 diabetes "within the past two weeks" after he began experiencing unexplained weight loss.

Love's prime directive was to plug gaps as either a 4-3 defensive tackle or as a 3-4 end or nose tackle. The Patriots will be looking to fill that role in training camp.

What once appeared to be a stacked competition for playing time at defensive tackle has turned into yet another position on the roster that has been almost completely overhauled from last year (along with wide receiver). Second-year defensive tackle Marcus Forston is the only name that remains from last year, and he played just one game in 2012.

Newcomers include Tommy Kelly, formerly of the Raiders, and Armond Armstead, formerly of the Toronto Argonauts (CFL). As of right now, Tommy Kelly would be my guess as the front-runner for the starting spot next to Vince Wilfork, but Armond Armstead could earn it with a solid camp.

Mississippi State's Dewayne Cherrington and South Florida's Cody Grissom could follow in the footsteps of Love as undrafted free-agents to make the team.

Kelly and Armstead could prove to be valuable players, but as of right now, there's a lot more uncertainty for the Patriots at defensive tackle than there was this time just a few days ago.


About the author

Erik Frenz delivers analysis of the biggest news with the Patriots, including insight into the AFC East and New England's biggest rivals from a Patriots perspective. Erik is an interactive writer who engages his audience in his posts’ comments sections and on Twitter. Readers are encouraged to share their thoughts and ask questions. More »

Blogroll

More community voices

Chow Down Beantown

MD Mama

Pet Chatter

Straight Up

TEDx Beacon Street

archives

Browse this blog

by category