Weatherford, field position key Giants' victory
The most telling statistic from Sunday’s devastating loss to the New York Giants was the time of possession for each team: the Giants held the ball for 37:05, more than 14 minutes longer than the Patriots (22:55). Excluding their kneel-down to end the first half, the Giants’ drives averaged nine plays and 4:37 each, none of which netted fewer than two first downs.
Though early on, the Giants (average starting field position: NYG 25) were unable to convert their time-consuming drives into many points, they dominated the field position battle, severely disadvantaging Tom Brady and the Patriots offense (average starting field position: NE 16). Consider that the Patriots’ best field position to start a drive was their own 29-yard line, and it becomes clearer why they could only manage 17 points; it’s incredibly difficult to drive 80 and 90 yards on a consistent basis.When the Giants’ drives stalled, punter Sam Weatherford — whose performance merited serious consideration for Super Bowl MVP — pinned the Patriots deep in their own territory with lethally precise kicks, three of which landed inside the 10-yard line. His first punt, a lob wedge that spun back to the New England six-yard line, contributed directly to the game’s first points, the safety forced by the Giants’ pass rush on the ensuing play.
The Giants exposed the true weakness of the Patriots’ “bend-but-don’t-break” defense; when they don’t force turnovers (which play an enormous role in swinging field position), the team becomes tremendously beatable, especially against teams with more than competent offenses. Ordinarily, Brady is able to counter the offensive output of the opposition, putting together his own long drives and effectively neutralizing the opponent’s field position advantage — the Patriots were second in the league in opponent starting field position this year — which makes the three possessions in which the Pats failed to register a first down all the more critical.
Yet, for all that, the Patriots were still in excellent position to win the game, their win probability as high as 80 percent with 4:40 left. But they failed to capitalize on two pivotal opportunities to extend their slim lead on their first two possessions of the fourth quarter: Brady’s underthrown bomb that was intercepted by Chase Blackburn at the Giants’ eight-yard line and Wes Welker’s drop at the Giants’ 20-yard line. Had either play been converted, it’s likely that the Lombardi Trophy would have returned to New England, and the Tom Brady-Joe Montana comparisons would have continued for the next seven months.
As it was, the Giants did convert their big chance, emerging from the shadow of their own end zone with a 38-yard heave from Eli Manning to Mario Manningham. In the words of Indianapolis native Kurt Vonnegut, “So it goes.”
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Stats Driven features a closer look at statistical analysis, sports strategy and trends within Boston sports. Andrew Mooney, a sophomore at Harvard College and an active member of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective, is the primary contributor. Email him at statsdriven@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter at @mooneyar.
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