By Andrew Mooney, Boston.com Correspondent

On the surface, the matchup looks awfully familiar. The Celtics, the league’s best defensive team, meet the explosive Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference playoffs. But with a year elapsed since Miami’s five-game series victory over Boston—and a year’s wear and tear added to the Celtics’ veteran odometers—why should we expect this installment of the rivalry to be any different?

As it stands now, however, history can’t tell us much. Injuries have distorted these teams’ makeups such that games from last season, or even earlier this season, are not particularly instructive for predicting what will unfold between the two teams starting tonight. Still, it’s worth examining the matchups we will see in this series to get a better sense of the task now facing the Celtics.

Miami’s offense all season has been predicated on the pick-and-roll penetration of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. But without the deadly 15-foot jump shot of Chris Bosh, who accounted for 18 percent of the Heat’s scoring during the regular season, the Celtics can follow the Pacers' blueprint and clog the lane against that penetration. The Heat's other candidates to knock down the pick-and-pop jumper: Udonis Haslem (39 percent from midrange) and Joel Anthony (yikes).

For Boston, the primary difficulty will be finding adequate defenders to slow down James and Wade. Paul Pierce has done a so-so job defending James the last two seasons; in 11 games dating back to last year, LeBron has averaged about two points more per 36 minutes with Pierce on the court than when he’s on the bench.

But the biggest concern, with shoulder surgery ending Avery Bradley’s season, is finding anyone to stop Wade. By default, that role falls to a hampered Ray Allen, and if Wade keeps up the level of offensive production he displayed over the last three games against the Pacers (33.0 points per game on 61.5 percent shooting), Allen won’t be in any position to stop him.

Slowing these two down, then, will require a total team defensive effort, which means peripheral defenders coming off their men to help out and double team. Perimeter shooters Mike Miller (45.3 percent from three), James Jones (40.4 percent) and Shane Battier (33.9 percent) will get their open looks, and if they knock them down consistently, the Celtics are in trouble.

Of course, the Celtics do have Rajon Rondo as their trump card, but it’s unclear whether his superiority over Mario Chalmers will be enough to counterbalance the prolific play expected from James and Wade. Michael Wilbon wondered aloud on ESPN whether the Heat’s two “great, great” players could defeat Boston’s four “great” players, and, by at least one metric, it appears they can. A look at Win Shares—a measure of how much a player contributes to his team’s wins over a season, offensively and defensively—on basketball-reference.com shows the Heat’s top four remaining players (not including Bosh) enjoying a 30 to 23.5 advantage in Win Shares, with James and Wade alone contributing 22.2.

Yet, despite that bleak assessment, I still expect the Celtics to take the floor at AmericanAirlines Arena tonight, and the only information we can be sure of is what we see once the ball tips. Far be it from me to dismiss these Celtics, who have warded off the dark embrace of Father Time for another series with stifling defense and timely shooting. Unfortunately, the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers are not the Heat, and, as sad as it is to admit, the end of an era probably starts tonight.

By Andrew Mooney, Boston.com Correspondent

As ESPN’s John Hollinger artfully illustrated in April, the Celtics’ dramatic turnaround from has-been, elder statesmen of the East to dangerous veterans bent on one last title run can be attributed almost entirely to their defensive resurgence. The introduction of Avery Bradley into the starting lineup and the shift of Kevin Garnett from power forward to center transformed a .500 team into a dark horse Finals pick.

The numbers back up the wisdom of this lineup shift. With what was the team’s most common five-man unit of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen, the Celtics’ defensive efficiency (number of points allowed per 100 possessions) was 98.9 during the regular season—solidly below the league average of around 102, but still unspectacular, given that the unit was only just above the league average for offensive efficiency (103.4 points per 100 possessions).

But, after Allen’s nagging ankle injury caused Bradley to be inserted into the lineup, the Celtics have been a far more productive team, on both ends of the court. The unit of Rondo, Pierce, Bass, Garnett, and Bradley allowed just 89.8 points per 100 possessions, almost a full six points better than the team’s overall average (95.5). They have also been a superior offensive unit, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions, powered by a highly efficient shooting percentage (50.6 percent) from the field.

However, though this lineup is capable of locking down an opposing offense, it remains plagued by the one aspect of defense in which the Celtics have been notably deficient all year: rebounding. This is not a problem unique to this five-man unit, but rather due to the team’s construction; the Celtics' relative lack of size in the frontcourt makes them susceptible to getting pounded on the offensive glass, an issue that has increasingly come to light this postseason.

Friday’s Game 4 against the 76ers was particularly representative of this phenomenon. Though the Celtics held Philadelphia to 37.8 percent shooting from the field, the 76ers attempted 11 more shots from the field, in large part because of their 17-5 edge in offensive rebounds. As the Celtics discovered, stingy defense becomes less of a weapon when allowing more possessions each trip down the court.

In fact, the Celtics’ fortunes during the playoffs have closely followed their performance in the rebounding battle. In their series with the Hawks and now the 76ers, the Celtics have won every time they have outrebounded their opponent (5-0). When they have trailed their opponent in rebounding margin, however, the Celtics are just 1-4, with the only victory coming in the Game 4 blowout of Atlanta. In those four losses, the Celtics have been outrebounded 190-148, and in only two of these 10 contests have the Celtics held the advantage in offensive rebounding margin.

So far, the Celtics have been able to get by despite their futility on the boards due to their otherwise outstanding team defense; in ten postseason games, Boston opponents are shooting, on average, just 40.51 percent from the field. But, as happened Friday, much of that advantage is nullified when giving up a significant edge in offensive rebounding, and thus, additional attempts at the basket. Tied at two, the series looks to be a toss-up heading into Monday’s pivotal Game 5. The result may hinge not on the offensive production of Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass, but on the ability of the frontcourt to clean the glass and prevent second chance points.

By Andrew Mooney, Chris Bruce, and Ben Zauzmer, Boston.com Correspondents

It may have tapered off slightly after Monday’s lackluster effort against the Nets, but anyone who’s tuned in to ESPN in the last few days can confirm that Linsanity is still alive and well. Linsanity officially commenced following Lin’s 25-point performance against the Nets on Feb. 4 and has continued as frenzied crowds at Madison Square Garden continue to delight in the performance of their new point guard.

Like a few other Harvard economics majors, Lin’s influence has provided his corporate employer with a tidy profit, but he hasn’t forgotten about the little guy; Lin’s play on the court has provided ticket scalpers with a bonanza of their own, as the hoopla that surrounds him has led to a surge in demand for Knicks tickets on the secondary market.

Using data compiled by ticket search engine SeatGeek, we’ve graphed the average price of tickets to four different Knicks games, from Friday’s loss to the New Orleans Hornets to Wednesday’s matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, and their fluctuations over the preceding two weeks.

As the hype surrounding Lin compounded, single-game ticket prices soared by as much as 258 percent, in the case of Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, climbing from $140.57 on February 4 to $503.82 on February 17. The average rise for the four games was 208 percent, meaning the prices for these tickets effectively tripled since Lin assumed a starring role.

There exists a substantial correlation between Lin’s performances and jumps in ticket prices. Over the 15-day period we examined, six of the top eight single-day price increases came immediately following nights on which Lin played, and the other two came once ticket prices (and Linsanity) had already begun their precipitous rise.

The graph also shows that prices did not move significantly until Lin’s 38-point performance against the Lakers, which brought his international profile to its peak; the following day, Feb. 11, Google searches for “jeremy lin” reached their zenith worldwide.

How does Lin’s influence compare with that of another significant acquisition for the Knicks, Carmelo Anthony? In the week before Anthony’s arrival in New York on February 21, 2011, Knicks tickets sold on the secondary market for, on average, $128.51. After news of the trade broke, ticket prices rose to an average of $206.02 in the ensuing week, a 60.3 percent increase. Despite the smaller increase in ticket prices, Carmelo's impact upon them was instantaneous, whereas Lin's effect on prices took some time to gain traction.

Ironically, after months of speculation and trade rumors, the addition of Anthony—a perennial All-Star and All-NBA selection—caused the price to jump less than the emergence of an unheralded rookie. It’s possible that prices had already risen slightly, reflecting the expectation of a trade for Anthony, but the stark difference between the two suggests that the rise in demand is attributable to more than just basketball.

Consequently, perhaps the only phenomenon with which Linsanity can accurately be compared is Tebowmania, the similarly insufferable fad inspired by the one and only Tim Tebow, quarterback of the Denver Broncos.

And if ticket prices are any indication, Lin has actually created a greater spike in demand for his team than Tebow. Last fall, Broncos tickets moved from an average sale price of $143.20 before Tebow's first start to an average of $172.92 thereafter, a 21 percent increase. Even when we compare the pre-Tebow prices with their regular season peak in December, we find only a 57 percent increase.

Has Linsanity officially displaced Tebowmania as the most intense craze in recent sports memory? Comparing ticket prices across sports is tricky, and larger football stadiums may make it harder to drive up prices. But given that both venues were essentially sold out prior to the teams’ respective personnel changes, the 200-plus percent increase in ticket prices associated with the Knicks’ addition of Lin puts Anthony and Tebow to shame. So yes, someone may have produced cultural madness greater than that which was inspired by Tebow. Time to move to Canada.

By Andrew Mooney, Boston.com Correspondent

On Feb. 9, John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Ratings on espn.com displayed one very curious entry. There, sandwiched at number two between Lebron James and Kevin Durant was…Jeremy Lin?

It’s been 12 days since the basketball world was first caught up in the throes of “Linsanity,” as Jeremy came off the bench to torch the Nets for 25 points and seven assists. In his next four games, starting for the first time, Lin scored 109 points and effectively revitalized the floundering, injury-ridden Knicks’ season. Predictably, a host of terrible puns, nicknames, and general Internet absurdity soon followed. For a moment, I almost missed Tebow.

For my part, I’ve regarded Linsanity with a more tempered eye (despite his excellent choice of undergraduate institution). This sports year has already seen one Harvard grad burst suddenly into prominence after an otherwise nondescript career, and as we’re now aware, Mr. Ryan Fitzpatrick found it quite difficult to sustain his lightning start. Will Lin have a similar regression? Let’s dig into his past to find any clues that might tip us off to his true ability.

Lin’s first NBA experience came with the Golden State Warriors, signing as an undrafted free agent after a stellar senior year with the Crimson. At Golden State, Lin was an entirely unremarkable bench player. His primary problem was getting on the court; he appeared in only 29 contests, averaging just 9.8 minutes per game. Yet even that number was inflated by extended spells of garbage time. Lin played more than 10 minutes in only 13 games, and the average margin of victory in those games was 15.9 points. As such, it’s hard to draw many conclusions from this period. He rarely played, and when he did, it was often when the game’s result was no longer in doubt and, thus, not really representative of true NBA competition.

Lin spent the remainder of 2010-11 with the NBDL’s Reno Bighorns, and it was here that he showed flashes of the skills we’ve seen over the past week. Over 20 games for the Bighorns, Lin averaged 18.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.1 steals, while playing 31.8 minutes per game. As Matt Kamalsky of Draft Express noted at the time, Lin was “extremely tough around the basket and show[ed] a very good understanding of … how to use screens and subtle changes of direction to turn the corner off the dribble. Lin won't land on a highlight reel any time soon, but he gets the job done in the D-League.”

While a generally positive assessment, it certainly doesn’t scream of potential NBA stardom. So what changed?

First, the toughness around the rim alluded to by Kamalsky has only increased. Lin has consistently displayed an ability to finish at the basket throughout his career. With the Warriors, Lin converted 58.1 percent of his attempts around the rim. This year, with the Knicks, he has boosted that number to 63.3 percent.

The main weakness in Lin’s game was his inability to knock down midrange jumpers. This was something about which Kamalsky expressed concern in his assessment of Lin’s D-League stint: “he'll need to become a reliable set shooter to give himself more staying power in the NBA.” And for good reason; in Golden State, he shot just 25 percent from 10-15 feet and 27 percent from 16-23 feet. As anyone who is familiar with Rajon Rondo’s career can tell you, this is particularly damaging for a pick-and-roll point guard who prefers to get into the lane. Defenses are perfectly content to allow those shot attempts if the guard can’t knock them down.

Yet, with the Knicks, knock them down he has. From 10-15 feet, Lin’s field goal percentage has improved to 55.6 percent, and from 16-23 feet, it’s all the way up to 63 percent.

What accounts for this improvement? Maybe, to quote Glenda the Good Witch, he’s “had it all along.” For one, he simply didn’t (and still doesn’t, really) have enough shot attempts in his first NBA go-around from which to draw any firm conclusions about his game. His poor shooting with Golden State could have been a fluke, and the improved numbers we’ve seen from Lin this season might be more indicative of his true ability.

Or perhaps he worked tirelessly on his game during the offseason and lockout, priming himself for one more shot at the pros. Personally, I’m more inclined toward this second explanation. In responding to his recent success, the one sentiment expressed universally by his former teammates at Harvard has been his extraordinary commitment to hard work. The unconventional form on his jumper also suggests that he’s never been a natural shooter, but with enough practice, he may have found a method that’s effective, if not pretty.

For now, Linsanity continues unchecked. But this week promises a couple new wrinkles in the Lin saga: notably, the reinsertion of Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony into the lineup. How will Lin coexist with the Knicks’ two biggest stars? Can he prevent the offense from devolving into the dual black hole attack it was a few weeks ago, with Anthony and Stoudemire jacking up shot after shot? I’ll be interested to see what happens to Lin’s own production. He won’t remain the focus of the offense, but he’ll get his looks. Can he continue to knock down open shots, as defenses rotate toward the Knicks’ two elite offensive players? Stay tuned; or, if you'd rather not, steer clear of the Internet for the next few days.

By Andrew Mooney, Boston.com Correspondent

The clock is ticking quite loudly for the current iteration of the Celtics. Though the Big Three –– Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce –– were almost solely responsible for rescuing the franchise from the extended mediocrity of the ‘90s and early ‘00s, their time as the faces of the team will soon be at an end.

No one needs to be reminded that Garnett, Allen, and Pierce are getting a little gray around the temples, but there’s also the business end to consider. Garnett’s and Allen’s contracts expire following the 2011-12 season, and both will likely consider retirement –– Garnett will be 36 and Allen 37 by the start of the 2012-13 campaign. Even if they desire to re-sign, it’s not clear that the Celtics will want them back. At some point, GM Danny Ainge has to turn the page and build for the future.

Which brings me to the lockout: the Celtics need a deal to be reached as soon as possible. The loss of the entire season effectively narrows the title window for the Big Three to a crack and might even shut it completely. The foundation of the team is simply getting old, and aging teams don’t often raise championship banners.

As evidence, here’s a plot showing the average age of every NBA championship team since 1952, weighted according to each player’s minutes in proportion to the team’s total minutes. For an example of the concept, Jason Kidd’s 38 years counted more toward the 2011 Mavericks’ weighted age than J.J. Barea’s 26 years, since Kidd played almost 1,000 more of the Mavs’ minutes during the season.

The minutes-weighted average age for all these championship teams is 28.1; for comparison, the minutes-weighted average age of the NBA in 2011 was 26.6. We can see that teams younger than 25 and older than 30 very seldom win it all, which seems self-evident. A team’s best shot at a title comes when the majority of their roster is in the latter half of its prime, possessing the athleticism of youth along with the experience and savvy obtained from multiple seasons in the league.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the Celtics’ roster, it’s hard to project where exactly they would fall on this spectrum. The brief free agency period following any deal made now would result in a mad scramble for players, with the Celtics picking up as many as five new bodies, should Jeff Green and Glen Davis choose to depart. But as their weighted average age last season was 29.5 years, a conservative estimate would place the 2011-12 Celtics at about 30.

Only six teams have won an NBA title with an average minutes-weighted age of 30 or older. Of those six, two were Michael Jordan-led Bulls teams; unfortunately, the Celtics will not have the luxury of the greatest player in history on their roster this season –– that is, unless Brian Scalabrine plans an unexpected return from Italy.

Offering somewhat more hope are the 2011 Mavericks and the 1999 Spurs. Last year’s champions, the Mavericks, proved that sometimes age is just a number. Their top four players in terms of minutes, Kidd, Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion, all topped 32 years, yet missed a combined 11 games over the regular season and played every game in the postseason.

The ’99 Spurs showed that, for an aging team, the cancellation of games may actually be a good thing. An abbreviated season, as Gary Dzen pointed out in July, is the best-case scenario for the Celtics, removing somewhere between 10 and 25 games of wear from the veteran legs of the Big Three. Ideally, the Celtics would follow San Antonio's blueprint (average age: 30.1), coasting into the playoffs after a shortened regular season and remaining unusually fresh for a deep run into May and June.

The good news is that, at this point, the players and owners seem too close to an agreement to justify totally cancelling the season (Update: or maybe not...). The setback the league would suffer from a lost year is one they cannot afford, particularly with the buzz generated for the NBA during last spring's playoffs. As long as the negotiators don't try to compress too many games into too short of a schedule, the Big Three will be well-prepared to make one last push to claim their second title, before their time is officially up.