Tourney talk
By Saturday at 2 p.m., we'll know the first team to clinch an automatic bid to this year's NCAA Tournament, as the first of the conference tournaments -- the Big South -- concludes. (I'm not forgetting that Penn could wrap up the Ivy League Friday night by beating Yale and if Princeton loses to Brown. That scenario probably won't happen, so Penn will clinch it by beating Brown Saturday).
Anyway, here's a look at the conference tournaments that start this week and who's likely to emerge with NCAA bids in some leagues that only an alumnus could love.
Big Sky (March 4; 7-8)
Northern Arizona, the Lumberjacks from Flagstaff, pretty much dominated before falling to Montana on the last day of the regular season. They will host the semifinals and final in their mini-dome, where they have a 12-1 record. Montana did beat the Lumberjacks, 96-83, last Saturday in Missoula, but also played them tough in Flagstaff before losing, 83-80.
Big South (Feb. 28; March 2, 4)
Winthrop is hosting the semifinals and finals and is a prohibitive favorite to repeat. The Eagles have had quite a season, beating Marquette in Milwaukee and losing close decisions on the road to Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn, and Memphis. It's a veteran team that should win, but there's one problem -- Coastal Carolina. Coastal is coached by Buzz Peterson, the former North Carolina player and Tennessee head coach. The Chanticleers beat Winthrop twice this year but they'll have to do it a third time overall and a second time on Winthrop's home court. That's a tough assignment. The one other possibility is Birmingham Southern, which relies strictly on 3-point shooters, but if the Panthers shoot the lights out, they're a possibility.
America East (March 3-5; 11)
This tournament starts in Binghamton Friday and won't end until Saturday, March 11 at the court of the highest remaining seed. That should be Albany, which has dominated the league all year and has the league's best player, guard Jamar Wilson. Boston University, a young team that has been hindered by injuries, has steadily improved and has an upset chance. Binghamton finished second in the regular season and has played Albany tough, losing two close games, plus it hosts the first two rounds. Despite that, Albany looks as if it's headed to its first NCAA Tournament.
Atlantic Sun (March 2-4)
This is wide open and the winner will be a candidate for the play-in game. The host team was East Tennessee, which jumped from the Southern Conference to the Atlantic Sun this year. The Bucs have underachieved; most people thought they'd walk all over this league, but they finished fourth, and lost in the first round of the conference tournament. Florida Atlantic is coached by Matt Doherty, the former North Carolina coach, and the Owls have a fighting chance. Two teams that have never been to the NCAAs, Lipscomb and Belmont, tied for first in the regular season, and are seeded first and second. The teams split their regular-season meetings.
Colonial Athletic Association (March 3-6)
It's been a great season for the CAA and this tournament is wide open, although George Mason, which was briefly ranked (25) for the first time in school history, has to be the favorite. The Patriots are no lock. Heck, if Northeastern gets four big games from Jose Juan Barea and Shawn James it could end up in the NCAAs. Old Dominion is seeded fourth and the Monarchs are one of the biggest disappointments of the season. They have the best talent in the league and that could show up this weekend. North Carolina-Wilimington, which tied Mason for first but is seeded second, is the opposite of ODU -- overachieving. A victory by the Seahawks would be a surprise. Hofstra is a possibility, but the Pride play their best at home, and the tournament is in Richmond, Va., which gives the home-court advantage to Virginia Commonwealth -- so the Rams can't be dismissed, either.
Horizon League (Feb. 28; March 3-4, 7)
Boston College fans won't forget Wisconsin-Milwaukee, which eliminated the Eagles from last season's NCAAs. Milwaukee has the home-court advantage, which makes it the favorite, but Butler, with several excellent outside shooters, could pull off an upset. Stranger things have happened, so you can't totally eliminate Detroit -- with entertaining guard Brandon Cotton -- or Loyola of Chicago -- with oversized point guard Blake Schlib.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (March 3-6)
Iona should be a prohibitive favorite. The Gaels have the most talent, but they blew the regular-season championship by losing to Manhattan on Sunday, when the Jaspers were missing their best player. Sometimes the Gaels look like they could win this tournament easily and pull off an upset in the NCAAs. Other nights, they look like they won't make the final. If they're on their game, they'll win. If not, certainly Manhattan could win, but the Jaspers will still be without C.J. Anderson. Marist is a possibility, led by highly entertaining point guard Jared Jordan.
Mid-Continent Conference (March 4-7)
Oral Roberts tied IUPUI (Indiana University Purdue University at Indianapolis or oo-wee-pu-ee) for the regular-season title, but the Titans should have dominated this league. The tournament's in Tulsa but not Oral's homecourt. The Titans should win and will probably match up with IUPUI in the final. Valparaiso, which used to dominate this league, is an upset possibility, as are the Kangaroos of Missouri-Kansas City.
Missouri Valley (March 2-5)
Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com, the unquestioned expert of how the NCAA selection committee picks the field, has five teams from this conference in the tournament, which is one more than the Atlantic Coast Conference. WOW!! Northern Iowa -- with SEVEN losses in the league -- is a potential NCAA at-large team. Needless to say, this makes for an incredibly wide-open tournament that will be worth the price of admission. Wichita State is the favorite but Creighton, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State could win it. Bradley had an interesting team and it's not farfetched to say the Braves have a chance. Would that mean seven bids? (I'm only kidding).
Northeast Conference (March 2, 5, 8)
Fairleigh Dickinson won last season and is favored again behind big man Gordon Klaiber. The Knights struggled at times this season but are playing well now. Robert Morris, with three players from Charlestown and one from Boston, is capable of winning this tournament, as is Monmouth, which has a veteran team.
Ohio Valley Conference (Feb. 28; March 3-4)
Murray State is the favorite and the Racers at times have looked like a team that could be a decent sleeper in the NCAAs. They'll have to get past patient Samford, which has the Merritt brothers, J. Robert and Joe Ross. Tennessee Tech, which played Michigan State tough earlier this year, also has a chance.
Patriot League (March 3, 5, 10)
Bucknell, which upset Kansas in last year's NCAAs, was briefly ranked this season and finished the conference regular season undefeated. Lehigh and Holy Cross have had decent years but Bucknell will be awfully hard to upset. The Bisons' first-round opponent in the NCAAs should be concerned.
Southern Conference (March 2-5)
There are at least four teams that could win this tournament: Georgia Southern, Davidson, Elon, and College of Charleston. The tournament is in North Charleston, obviously close to home for C of C. Georgia Southern has been up and down this year but now the Eagles are up, which makes them the favorite. Davidson is a well-coached team featuring Brendan Winters, son of former NBA player Brian Winters. Elon is barely over .500 but the Phoenix won the North Division.
Sun Belt (March 3, 5-7)
Western Kentucky deserves to win this tournament. The Hilltoppers start four guards and play exciting, uptempo, chuck-up-the-three basketball. They're sort of like a little Villanova. It would be a huge upset if they don't win.
West Coast Conference (March 3-6)
It would be even a bigger upset if Gonzaga didn't win this tournament on its home floor. Maybe San Diego could do it, but it's highly, highly, highly doubtful.
