This match still may spark firestorm

RUSSELL WILSONA red-hot QB

This much seems certain. When the Bowl Championship Series title game is held Jan. 8 in Miami it will be a team from the Big 12 against one from the Southeastern Conference.

Just which teams they will be is the only uncertainty.

Here's why this should happen:

Unbeaten and No. 1-ranked Alabama faces once-beaten and sizzling hot Florida in the SEC title game in Atlanta Saturday. The winner will be in the BCS title game.

Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 title game against Missouri because the BCS computers tell us the Sooners are the highest-ranked Big 12 team - the final tiebreaker to decide the South Division deadlock among Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, each of whom went 11-1 and whose sole losses came against each other. Texas beat Oklahoma, Texas Tech beat Texas, and Oklahoma beat Texas Tech.

If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 championship game Saturday in Kansas City, Mo., it almost certainly will be in the BCS title game.

However if Missouri pulls off the upset, then Texas, No. 3 in the latest BCS standings, will move into the national title game against the Alabama/Florida winner.

However, with the BCS, nothing is 100 percent certain. What would happen if Florida beats Alabama on a last-second field goal and ascends to No. 1 and the computers drop the Crimson Tide from first to second in the final BCS standings?

An SEC rematch in Miami?

What would happen if Florida beats Alabama in a dull game lacking offense, and the pollsters and computers move up the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in Oklahoma and Texas, rather than No. 4 Florida?

An Oklahoma vs. Texas rematch in Miami?

The sticking point right now is the Texas-Oklahoma question. The Longhorns beat the Sooners by 10 points on a neutral site in October and yet are behind them in the BCS standings, which gave OU its spot in the Big 12 championship game.

Fair or not, there is precedent. In the 2000 season, Miami beat Florida State during the regular season, but the Hurricanes found themselves behind the Seminoles in the BCS standings when it came time to determine the national title game.

Florida State then lost to Oklahoma, 13-2, in the championship game.

The other BCS bowls are falling into place, with these the most likely pairings:

Orange Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech/Boston College winner

Sugar Bowl - Alabama/Florida loser vs. Utah

Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. Southern California.

Bradford hurts hand
Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford tore ligaments in his non-throwing hand during the Sooners' win against Oklahoma State Saturday and is expected to have surgery following the Big 12 title game . . . Memo to future USC opponents. If you find Southern Cal on your schedule during November, chalk up an L. With the Trojans' 38-3 win over Notre Dame Saturday night, USC's record in November in the Pete Carroll era improved to 27-0 . . . Virginia, which was dumped by Virginia Tech Saturday, 17-14, was 0-4 in November, one of the reasons the Cavaliers will not go bowling this season . . . Want a hot quarterback? Try North Carolina State's Russell Wilson, who guided the Wolfpack from a 2-6 start to a 6-6 finish and an almost certain bowl game. In Wilson's last eight starts, he had a 16-0 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions.

Three wise teams
It is the Year of the Owl. Rice won six straight games to finish with nine wins for the season, its most since it won nine in 1953. Temple finished with a 5-7 record, its most victories since 1990, and Florida Atlantic compiled a 6-6 record, including five victories in its last six games . . . Lots of QBs - especially in the pass-happy Big 12, have had good weeks this season, but Eastern Michigan's Andy Schmitt will match his totals with anyone. Schmitt competed an NCAA record 58 passes good for 516 yards and five TDs in a 56-52 win over Central Michigan Friday night. Schmitt's two-week totals? He went 108 of 156 for 1,000 yards and eight TDs . . . Where did this Oregon performance come from? In the Ducks' 65-38 romp over Oregon State, they piled up 694 yards in offense . . . Another monster in the making was Georgia Tech, with its remarkable 409 rushing yards in a 45-42 triumph over Georgia, which also snapped a seven-game Bulldogs winning streak in the series . . . Southern Methodist coach June Jones has compiled a 13-12 record the past two seasons: 12-1 at Hawaii last season and 1-11 at SMU this season.

Sorry, Charlie
Notre Dame had no offense, no spark, and no chance against Southern Cal. Fighting Irish coach Charlie Weis is talking about the opportunity for his 6-6 team to play in a bowl game, which no doubt caused some movement in the graves of Leahy and Rockne. Recall the following quote: "We simply have not made the progress on the field that we need to make. Nor have we been able to create the positive momentum necessary in our efforts to return the Notre Dame program to the elite level of the college football world." That was uttered four years ago by then Fighting Irish athletic director Kevin White as he announced the firing of coach Tyrone Willingham after three years on the job. In the last two seasons, Notre Dame is 9-15 and is almost begging for a bowl bid.

Mark Blaudschun can be reached at blaudschun@globe.com.