Taking it from the top
Mark Blaudschun predicts preseason pick Kansas will meet expectations and capture title
Kansas is on top right now, ranked first in the Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll. In the past, such an honor would be regarded with some trepidation since the list of teams that started and ended the season No. 1 is a short one. North Carolina made the run in 1994, Duke in 1992 and UNLV a year before that. Most recently, the University of Connecticut was the preseason pick a year ago and ended its season in the same spot after a victory over Georgia Tech in the national championship title game in San Antonio.
This season, the feeling is the Jayhawks will emerge with their first national title in 17 years, another milestone for one of college basketball's most storied programs.
It will hardly be a walk in the prairie. Coach Bill Self's team must deal with the armada from the Atlantic Coast Conference, including Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Duke, all of which are Final Four-caliber teams. And there is also the looming specter of the Big East, which offers the last two national champions, UConn and Syracuse, as worthy contenders for a Big East trifecta.
The games have started, with promise for another fascinating marathon through April Fools' Day, when Kansas should emerge with the biggest prize.
1. KANSAS - The Jayhawks made the adjustment from Roy Williams to Self last season. With four starters back, including solid senior leadership in point guard Aaron Miles, shooting guard Keith Langford, and power forward Wayne Simien, the Jayhawks should finish with the school's third national championship.
2. Syracuse - It would be a mistake to take any Jim Boeheim- coached team too lightly. It would be an even bigger mistake to underestimate a Boeheim team that has five returning starters, including veteran point guard Gerry McNamara and power forward Hakim Warrick. The Orange have the potential to extend the Big East string of national championships for another season.
3. Wake Forest - Chris Paul, the preseason pick in many quarters for Player of the Year, leads a contingent of five returning starters for coach Skip Prosser's team that hopes to make the Demon Deacons' first run to the Final Four since 1962. Paul, the sophomore point guard, runs the show, but he has help in backcourt mates Taron Downey and Justin Gray, as well as veteran forward Vytas Danelius. If the Deacons can get over any late March jitters, they could dance all the way to a title.
4. Oklahoma State - Four starters come back from a team that surprisingly made it to the Final Four a year ago. With 755 career victories, it would be no great stretch to think that Eddie Sutton can pick up another five or six next March. The Cowboys lost Tony Allen, now with the Celtics, but they have John Lucas and Joey Graham returning along with two other starters from a squad that won 31 games. Sutton teams are always dangerous in March.
5. North Carolina - Roy Williams made it clear when he came back to Chapel Hill a year ago that Sweet 16s and Final Fours would continue as goals for the Tar Heels. He came up short of both a year ago, but with all five starters returning, the Tar Heels are thinking big again. Raymond Felton is a premier point guard and Sean May is a potential Player of the Year candidate, coming off a superb summer for the USA Basketball 20-and-under squad.
6. Connecticut - Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon are gone to the NBA. But Jim Calhoun is back and so is a roster loaded with talent ranging from forward Charlie Villanueva to super recruit Rudy Gay. Sophomore Marcus Williams looks like a capable replacement to point guard Taliek Brown. Add talent everywhere else and the Huskies might not be that far from making a return to the Final Four. And if that happens, don't bet against a Calhoun-coached team.
7. Kentucky - The pressure is on at Kentucky. More than normal? Oh, yes. That's what happens when a Wildcats season with a second-round NCAA Tournament loss to Alabama-Birmingham. Still, coach Tubby Smith has talent everywhere on a roster that just needs experience. So watch and wait as players like forwards Chuck Hayes and Kelenna Azubuike put up numbers that keeps the Wildcats as contenders.
8. Illinois - Can you call a team that won 26 games a year ago, a sleeper? If you can, consider the Illini ``sleepers'' - with five starters back. The Illini are not part of the ACC elite or the Big East national championship duo, but with guards Dee Brown and Deron Williams leading the way, coach Bruce Weber's team could become leader of the pack very quickly.
9. Georgia Tech - Coach Paul Hewitt's team climbed the peak a year earlier than most thought possible, going all the way to the national championship game before losing. Hewitt has four starters returning and five seniors and two juniors on a roster loaded with talent and experience. Start underneath with 7-1 center Luke Schenscher and go right to guards Jarrett Jack and B.J. Elder and you have a team that can play with anybody.
10. Duke - Everywhere the Devils look around the ACC danger lurks. Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech are prime examples. What does it say about a conference that you can be No. 10 in the nation and fourth in your own league? It could get better for Mike Krzyzewski's team if guards Daniel Ewing and J.J. Redick kick it up a notch and big man Shelden Williams steps into the fray and provides the defensive anchor underneath.
11. Arizona - As is usually the case with Lute Olson teams, the talent is available, which last year meant another 20-win season for the Wildcats. Four starters return, which is more good news. And with a pair of seniors in guard Salim Stoudamire and center Channing Frye leading the way, as well as leading scorer Hassan Adams, Arizona should produce its 18th consecutive 20-win season at the very least.
12. Texas - It's rebuilding time at Texas, with four starters gone from last year's 25-8 team. Or is that reloading? Longhorn coach Rick Barnes has talent everywhere to replace the talent that left. Start with sophomore forward P.J. Tucker and a recruiting class headed by point guard Daniel Gibson and forwards LaMarcus Aldridge and Mike Williams. It might not show early in the season, but watch out at the end for a powerhouse in Austin.
13. Michigan State - The Spartans took a step back last season after a run that had included three straight Final Four appearances. But with five starters returning, Tom Izzo's team might make another long run into March and April. Senior point guard Chris Hill will run the show from the floor and junior center Paul Davis will provide some muscle underneath.
14. Maryland - Gary Williams's team won its first ACC tournament a year ago with a young developing team. If the Terps weren't in the shark-invested waters of Duke, Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest, they might be contenders instead of waiting for an opening. With four starters back, led by forward/center Travis Garrison and point guard John Gilchrist, the Terps can make some noise early and perhaps late in the season.
15. Notre Dame - Chris Thomas is back and so is Torin Francis. And that should be enough to move the Irish from the NIT back into the NCAA. With Mike Brey running things from the bench, Irish eyes should again be smiling.
16. Memphis - Under John Calipari, you know Memphis is going to win. Calipari recruits as well as anybody and he's not behind too many people in the X's and O's department, either. Add players such as sophomore forward Sean Banks and freshman guard Darius Washington and you have a formula for success that should result in another 20-plus-win season.
17. Louisville - The Cardinals are in the same winning mode that Memphis is in. But in their last season in Conference USA before moving to the faster moving waters of the Big East, coach Rick Pitino wants to make one more big splash. With forward Francisco Garcia back for another season and point guard Taquan Dean running the show, he might do it.
18. Mississippi State - Lawrence Roberts is to the Bulldogs what Paul is to Wake Forest, perhaps more so. Roberts is probably the best player in the SEC and a legitimate candidate for national Player of the Year honors.
19. Washington - The Huskies are fighting their way back to respectability. Washington won 15 of its last 19 games a year ago and has all five starters back, including 5-9 point guard Nate Robinson, who does just about everything for coach Lorenzo Romar's team.
20. N.C. State - Herb Sendek will let guard Julius Hodge do his magic and hope for the best. Hodge passed on the NBA last season for one more go-around in college, which he hopes will produce some kind of championship. In the tough ACC that's not likely to happen, but the Wolfpack should be fun to watch.
21. Wisconsin - Bo Ryan's teams are generally not fun to watch. But they produce wins as his 68 victories in three years proves, including a school-record 35 Big Ten victories. The Badgers should add to that total this season with twin towers Brian Butch and Greg Stiemsma, a pair of 6-11 bookends, leading the way.
22. Alabama - The Tide always have talent. Coach Mark Gottfried's team won 20 games last season and reached the Elite Eight before losing to UConn. Gottfried has four starters back, led by forward Kennedy Winston. Watch for more fireworks from the Tide.
23. Florida - The Gators have flamed out in March the last three years with first- or second-round losses. But Billy Donovan has five starters back from last year's 20-11 team, which suggests better things are on the horizon. Watch out for point guard Anthony Roberson, who can speed things up in a heartbeat.
24. Charlotte - Bobby Lutz does a nice job each year with the talent he has and this season should be no exception. With four starters back from a 21-9 squad led by forward Curtis Withers, the 49ers will be digging for gold again.
25. Oklahoma - The Sooners were in a ``rebuilding'' season last year and won 20 games. If forward Kevin Bookout can stay healthy they should be able to top that figure this season, especially if JC transfer Taj Gray can provide some help underneath. 