Duke's stay on top won't last for long

So Duke is the No. 1 seed for the entire tournament. Are the Dukies going to make it to Indianapolis?

Probably. But the Blue Devils are beatable, and from the looks of this regional, they may go down. Let's see why.

Duke will coast past Southern in a scrimmage Thursday. Then comes a second-round game against either UNC-Wilmington or George Washington, which tumbled to a No. 8 seed. UNC-Wilmington can and should win this game, which produces a Saturday second-round game between Carolina and Duke that everyone wanted to see in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament final. Only it's North Carolina-Wilmington. Playing in Greensboro, N.C., will bring some UNC-Wilmington fans, and while it's a ''watch-out" game, the Devils will prevail.

The other half of Duke's draw should bring No. 4 seed LSU. The Tigers were the best team in the Southeastern Conference in the regular season before disappearing in the SEC tournament. LSU should beat Iona with relative ease then will have to deal with Syracuse in a second-round game, provided the Orange have enough energy left after their four-game march to the Big East tournament championship.

The Orange should dispatch Texas A&M but beating LSU two nights later is a different matter. LSU coach John Brady made it clear he was resting his team in the SEC tournament, and he will be ready to unleash Glen Davis and company against the NCAA field. The Tigers should advance to face Duke for a regional semifinal in Atlanta that will have a Final Four feel to it.

In the other half of the draw, Texas will have its problems from the start dealing with the quirky play of Penn in the first round and the grittiness of California in the second. With both games in Dallas, Texas should prevail.

But it will get tricky in Atlanta. The feeling here is that the Longhorns will get tripped up in the regional semifinal by the team coming out of the Auburn Hills subregional, No. 3 seed Iowa. Coach Steve Alford will make it tough on everyone. He will take care of Northwestern State, then deal with West Virginia, which won't be easy as people learned last year when the Mountaineers came within a half of making the Final Four.

Iowa will cut short the Mountaineers' run this year, then knock off Texas. Two days later, the Hawkeyes will stun everyone and knock off a Duke team worn out from beating LSU.