Worth Waiting For

I hate predictions. My boss knows this. I think they're irrelevant and worthless unless backed up by money.

But I have no juice. I was forced to predict the ALCS, and I said Indians in 6.

The truth is I could have said Indians in 6, Indians in 7, Sox in 6, Sox in 7, who cares? They're all equally valid.

I'm a percentage chance guy. That makes far more sense, except you can't bet that way. But in evaluating a series or a game that is a far better way to go. So in this case I'd say the Indians have a 52 percent chance of winning the series. I like 'em, but only by a little.

Here are the basics:

--- The Indians have two starting pitchers they can count on. The Red Sox have one. Schilling, Dice-K and Wakefield are maybes, as are Westbrook and Byrd. Wake and Byrd in Game 4 will be a fascinating match-up. A 41-year-old knuckleballer vs. a 37-year-old guy with a 1937 wind-up. Where's Red Barber when you need him?

--- The Red Sox are better in the batting order 1 through 5. The Indians are better 1 through 9. There isn't a guy in their lineup who can't hurt you.

--- The Red Sox have very reliable middle relief if you don't count Gagne, who cannot be handed the ball with a lead. The Indians are downright scary with Perez and Betancourt, not to mention this kid Lewis.

--- Jonathan Papelbon is a top-flight closer. Joe Borowski is a menace to your mental health. In 60 appearances this year Papelbon has been scored on nine times. In 71 appearances this year, Borowski has been scored on 23 times.

--- Papi and Manny are (currently) the best 3-4 in baseball.

--- Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner scare the hell out of me.

--- The Indians got here by beating a better team.

--- The Red Sox feel better about themselves than they have all year.

--- I think the key game will be Game 2. Can Schill do unto the Indians as he did unto the Angels? And how long will Francona stick with him? Me, I'd have Lester ready from the get-go.

Finally, I'm very pleased it's the Indians. I've had just about enough of the Yankee Passion Play nonsense.