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Time to lower expectations for Patriots?

Posted by Christopher L. Gasper, Globe Staff  July 29, 2010 07:54 AM
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There are a lot of questions surrounding the 2010 New England Patriots, and today we start to get some answers -- or at least some some helpful hints.

But perhaps the most difficult query to answer as the Patriots commence training camp today at Fort Foxborough is not one that can be answered by coach Bill Belichick, or quarterback Tom Brady, or wide receiver Wes Welker, or an uninspiring group of outside linebackers or developing defensive backs Darius Butler and Devin McCourty.

It's a question that requires the Patriots fan to questions themselves: What are your realistic expectations for this edition of the Patriots?

It's difficult to know what to expect of the Patriots anymore. The rote practice of just penciling them in as a perennial Super Bowl favorite is easy and comforting, but not necessarily accurate.

Even the most ardent and unconditional Patriots fan who still holds his or her favorite team up as the apotheosis of professional football would have to admit there has been some slippage since the Glory Years. The nearly-perfect 2007 season was just three years ago and yet it seems in some ways like another lifetime.

We all thought with the return of Brady under center last season that the Patriots would pick up where they left off in the sublime 2007 season. They did, sort of, in that the season ended with a shocking playoff defeat. But the expectation that they would win 14 or 15 games and pass go to the Super Bowl proved to be wildly unreasonable.

The team struggled to find its stride and its identity all season long. It's going to take more than peeling the pictures of past players off the wall to fix that this year.

We (myself included) overlooked an unseasoned and unproven defense and underplayed the on-field and locker room loss of leaders like Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Richard Seymour. We expected the 2009 Patriots to play and comport themselves like the Patriots of the past simply because of the uniforms and helmets. It doesn't work that way.

"It's not the Patriots uniform that makes players play the Patriot Way," said Brady, after the season. "It's all the players and coaches collectively pulling in the same direction."

What direction exactly is this franchise going in now? The evidence would indicate it's headed away from the dominance that marked the previous decade.

A very real question in these parts is who is more likely to finish in third place, the Patriots or the Red Sox? I don't think the Patriots are a third-place team. I still give them a narrow edge over the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East because it's a quarterback league and the Patriots have the best QB in the division, assuming he's not distracted by his uncertain contract status.

However, is it really that unfathomable for this team to end up in third place with say a 9-7 record? In the last 14 seasons there have been at least five teams to make the playoffs that were postseason bystanders the previous season. Some team that wasn't on the playoff guest list last season will be sitting in postseason VIP this year. Maybe they take the Cincinnati Bengals' spot. Maybe it's the Patriots' spot.

The Patriots are coming off back-to-back seasons of 11-5 and 10-6. They haven't won a playoff game in two seasons. They start camp with a roster that features two dozen draft picks from the last two years and just four players who have been around for and since the team's three Super Bowl titles last decade -- Brady, left tackle Matt Light, running back Kevin Faulk and right guard Stephen Neal. Three of the four (Brady, Light and Faulk) don't have contracts that go beyond this season. Wide receiver Randy Moss is also in the last year of his contract, and Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins is a holdout because he wants a new contract.

Yet, the Patriots are still the reigning AFC East champions. They still have the best coach in the game and the quarterback with the highest active winning percentage (.764). They still have the incomparable Moss at receiver. They re-signed nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback Leigh Bodden. Welker is ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation from a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

If the pieces fall into place ... The Patriots are a team framed by ifs.

If young players can emerge at cornerback and outside linebacker, if they can find a third wide receiver, if they can generate a pass rush, if the light goes on for running back Laurence Maroney, if they can win on the road this season, the Patriots will be fine. That's a lot of ifs, but pretty much every team in the NFL has a lot of ifs this time of year.

Last year at this time there were just as many ifs about the New Orleans Saints. The difference is that no one expects the Saints to win the Super Bowl every year, like it's some divine rite.

We know what the internal expectations are in Foxborough. Those don't change and they shouldn't. But it's probably time for lowered expectations outside Gillette Stadium. The Super Bowl or bust mentality that has pervaded the region since 2002 no longer applies.

Sometimes it's easy to forget that the Patriots run of success started with one of the most unexpected Super Bowl titles in NFL history. It was fun back then without the Wilfork-sized weight of expectations placed on the team each season.

We used to expect greatness from the Patriots. Now, that might be expecting too much.

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The word

Christopher L. Gasper riffs on the news

Diva

...that's the word former Patriots linebacker and current NFL Network analyst Willie McGinest used to describe the attitude of Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Slapped with the franchise tag by the Patriots, Welker implied Tuesday he would not be attending the team's mandatory mini-camp in June if he didn't have a new long-term contract. Part of McGinest's rationale was that Welker's earning power and production -- really one and the same -- are the product of playing for the Patriots and playing with Tom Brady. Since joining the Patriots in 2007, Welker leads the NFL in receptions (554) and is fourth in receiving yards (6,105). It's fair to debate how much of his success and value as a slot receiver is tied to being Brady's favorite target in a pass-happy offense. (By the way, Willie, Welker did catch 111 balls in 2008, when Brady was out for the year.) It's not fair to denigrate Welker's attitude, work ethic or commitment. Grossly underpaid almost since the moment he joined the Patriots, Welker has desired and deserved this new contract since 2009. However, he has not once withheld his services or publicly lashed out at the Patriots, traditionally the only ploys that get the team's attention. He returned from a torn ACL in seven months in 2010, when he could have babied the injury to protect his value. Last year, in training camp he said he felt the best he had in his career and backed it up by setting a franchise record for receiving yards (1,569). Welker is the antithesis of a diva wide receiver. He is a player who is understated, underpaid and has over-performed.

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