Beckett may be an ace in the whole
At this time of year, when the races are as much against the clock as opponents, this is how quickly fortunes can change: In slightly more than two weeks, the Red Sox have gone from a team in apparent tatters to one with an unmistakable swagger.
And now their ace is coming back.
"I think before we start talking about silver linings, we want to see Josh [Beckett] get through a couple of games and feel good about himself," general manager Theo Epstein said Thursday. "But I'm very optimistic."
The old Red Sox might have been derailed by this, an injury to their ace at a pivotal time. But not these new Sox (post-2003). These Sox turn a potentially devastating setback into a blessing in disguise, offering further proof that the culture around this club has changed forever.
Beckett? On Aug. 17, he allowed eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a calamitous 15-4 loss to the Blue Jays at Fenway Park. While he experienced the now-infamous tingling in the ring and pinkie fingers on his right (throwing) hand, the Sox and their loyal following went almost entirely numb; just like that, an entire season might have gone up in smoke.
Now we have to wonder if the Red Sox might be better off for it.
Since Beckett last walked off the mound, the Sox are 11-4 with a 4.02 ERA, a number that is, in and of itself, deceiving. Take away lopsided losses of 11-0 and 11-6 one of those games was started by an unraveling Clay Buchholz and the team ERA is 2.89. The Red Sox have pitched, hit, and played defense, opening a comfortable lead on the Twins for the fourth and final playoff spot in the American League.
Meanwhile, Beckett has had nearly three weeks off to calm his (ulnar) nerve, which could prove invaluable if and when the Red Sox take the field in October.
"Any time a starting pitcher gets a rest," said Epstein, "there's a good chance he comes back feeling fresh and pitching his best baseball of the year."
Wishful thinking, you say? Not really, not based on history. Last year, for instance, an unusually large lead in the AL East afforded the Sox the chance to give Curt Schilling an extended rest, a respite that paid huge dividends in October. Meanwhile, Beckett got considerable rest down the stretch, making his final three starts of the season (and all four in the playoffs) with an extra day off.
Unsurprisingly, Beckett dominated opponents throughout the playoffs, twice outpitching eventual Cy Young Award winner and then-Cleveland ace CC Sabathia. By then, an overworked Sabathia was breathing as heavily as a bloated Buster Douglas after having stacked up innings as if they were buttermilk pancakes.
In recent years, in fact, Red Sox officials effectively have planned to give their starters a midseason break, be it by design or circumstance. Tim Wakefield had a stint on the disabled list. So did Daisuke Matsuzaka. Even Jon Lester got an extended break, granted 12 days of rest (July 8-21) thanks to some strategic planning around the All-Star break.
None of that is a coincidence.
Just as many NFL teams now employ two running backs to account for the wear and tear of the position, the Sox similarly try to lighten the load on their pitchers.
"It's something that's worked well for us," acknowledged Epstein. "Obviously, you never want your pitchers to have problems. I hope we can look back on this [recent episode with Beckett] and say that it was nothing but a scare."
As for what to expect from Beckett on Friday night against the potent Rangers, set your expectations low; the priority is his health. With the Sox now holding a spongy lead in the AL playoff race regardless of where the club stands relative to the Rays in the division they have time to rebuild their ace. Epstein said Beckett will be limited to 55-60 pitches, which might translate into nothing more than three or four innings. If that seems unusually low, remember that Beckett threw a mere 55 pitches in his last outing because he didn't survive the third inning.
The last time Beckett threw more than that?
Try Aug. 11, when he threw 104 pitches in a victory over the White Sox.
In the meantime, he hasn't exactly been firing away in the bullpen, either.
Of course, we all know what Beckett means to the Red Sox and their ultimate pursuit: a second straight World Series title and third in five years. Winning without him at his best during the regular season is one thing; winning without him at his best in October is something altogether different. For as much attention paid to Beckett's track record in October (6-2, 1.73 ERA, two world titles in two trips to the postseason), let the record show that September historically has been his best month during the regular season.
His totals: an 18-8 record (his best winning percentage in any month) with a 2.84 ERA (his lowest from April through September).
In the end, thanks to developments from Lester's emergence to Wakefield's consistency to Matsuzaka's resolve and good fortune, the Red Sox have not missed Beckett in April, May, June, July, or August. Now, thanks to the last few weeks, there is the chance they can afford him a stress-free September, too, putting an obvious emphasis on next month and leading to a rather astonishing conclusion.
Incredible as it seems, on Sept. 5, Josh Beckett's season starts now.
This also appears in Friday's Boston Globe.
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Mazz, so glad you are here. I've been struggling to keep reading the Globe since Gordon Edes left, Shaunessy stopped reporting (a couple of years ago??) and a cast of no-names quipped on blogs about butterflies in the pressbox and all other sorts of idiocy. THANKS for showing up! Joining Cafardo, and with some tutorials for Amalie, the Globe once again has a great lineup.
Hey, is it alright for a yahoo in a jersey to read the Globe now?
Good points all. Resting the warhorse in August and September has paid off in the postseason time and time again.
Hey Scott, that's a bit harsh! Agreed that Amalie's a bit green, but she can turn a phrase. I'd say Cafardo will benefit the most by having a high-performer to vibe with.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08!
No mention of Byrd's contributions in the penultimate paragraph?
Sox are starting to peak at the right time. We managed to stay on top of the wildcard and are in striking distance of the rays. Sox are HOT!! Look Out!!
Tony,
you write well and this was an informative article. I agree with the above commentor - Nick Cafardo and Amelie Benjamin provide a great blogger lineup.
Your blog title however, makes me cringe. The expression is "ace in the hole," not "ace in the whole." I scanned your article for what I thought was a pun on "hole" or "whole", but no such luck. Who is your editor?
"Ace in the Hole" etymology as defined by Wiktionary:
"From stud poker in which there is one unknown card called the "hole card;" referring to the optimum "hole card" being an ace."
This is my favorite Sox team out of all the teams of this decade simply due to the fact that every player who gets plugged in seems to not just get the job done - but they seem to come alive in ways that even surprise them.
Kotsay's two-run double the other day is the sort of thing I am talking about.
In a cynical world, this team is pure refreshment. I'm looking forward to the game tonight.
Tony:
Welcome aboard. I always thought Gordon Edes was an idiot, but I've always loved your work in the other paper. Glad you're at the Globe now.
That is a hilarious loaded comment on CC Sabathia's "form" in his post-season starts against Beckett last October. Welcome to The Globe, Mazz! Looking forward to your insightful and entertaining commentary.
"..their ace is coming back." Matsuzaka is where is he because of his "resolve and good fortune"? So, skill had absolutely nothing to do with his 16-2 record, it was all due to good fortune? He was never an ace for the Sox? That is just down right insulting to Dice K.
Lost a lot of respect for you after you ripped NE fans but you bounced back with a nice follow up email that made me a fan again. Plus your from Hawk High!
Good luck with your new project.
TONY MAZZ 24/7!!
The d-rays better watch their back cause beckett's back on the prowl
Brian:
Beckett returning healthy would be an ace who is whole. Get it, acewhole?
This may be silly and I'm certainly not comparing myself to Josh Beckett (or any kind of athlete for that matter), but we do a lot of fishing down here and by this time each year my elbow really hurts. I often wake up with the tingling/numbness in my pinky and ring finger.
It doesn't affect the casts and once we stop fishing my elbow is fine in a couple of weeks. Been like this for 20 years now, so I think Beckett will be fine, too. The time off was definitely a good thing and it will be perfect to have a rested ace for the playoffs.
"Mazz," huh? Are you suggesting you are to sportswriting what Yaz was to the Red Sox?
Brian,
"Ace in the Whole" was clearly an intended twist of the common poker phrase. Becket is the key to the success of the Red Sox as a whole. Without him the whole season could be in jeopardy. I doubt that Tony or his editor would allow the obvious error you suggest. You're failure to understand the play on words may make others cringe. I'll be interested in whether or not Mr. Massarotti elects to respond.
@ Brian, I believe the pun is that Beckett should be "whole" again after the rest, or alternatively, fully and wholly an ace. It's not that far of a stretch and I don't think it really needs to be spelled out (literally) for everyone.
just wanted to poke my head in to say thanks for leaving the herald for the worst sports coverage in town (with the exception of my boy Bob Ryan). All is right with the world.
post season and a healthy beckett = aworld series championship
How can Beckett be the ace when he has pitched poorly and you have another guy who is 16-2?
Dave, Mazz is Tony's nickname
I wish for once Tony would make a positive statement about Daisuke Matsuzaka. He has shown that he clearly does not like him. I hope Daisuke makes you eat your words. Go Dice! You are having a great year!
Interesting and insightful piece, this team suddenly found their character in the last few weeks, it's been a pleasure to watch. Give Dice-K his propers, though- he's been awesome to watch.
DiceK has been lucky to a degree. Good run support (never quote wins for pitcher's performance), and has had good bullpen support. How can an ace pitch so few innings reliably? Too many baserunners, and that stuff adds up eventually. Wish he were not nibbling so much.
Beckett is the guy who can be a true innings dominant horse in the classic mode. DiceK is still only our 3rd best starter if Beckett is on. (Lester has been better than DiceK this year -- yes, the innings matter that much)
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