In the AL, it's a match game
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- No matter what happens in this series at the Trop, this much seems certain:
So which team stands the better chance?
That all depends on your perspective.
The Angels, who opened a series with the Oakland A's last night, have a winning record against every American League team but one: the Rays. Los Angeles is a mere 3-6 against Tampa this season while going a well-publicized 8-1 against the Red Sox. All of that seems to suggest that the Red Sox would be far better off facing the White Sox (or Twins) in the first round, leaving the Angels to deal with the Rays.
Naturally, there are no absolutes in these types of discussions, so here are some arguments to consider as the Sox and Rays battle for the AL East. Keep in mind that the second-place finisher in the AL East probably will draw the Angels (unless the Twins and White Sox somehow both qualify):
The Red Sox would be better off playing the Angels in a short series. If the Angels are the better team this year, and current won-lost records suggest they are, the Sox' chances would be better in a shorter series. Over a seven-game set, the Angels' talent would have a better chance of impacting games, which means the better bet is to take them out early. Of course, if you believe the Sox have just as much talent, a short series could hurt them as much as it would help.
Still, in a shorter series, the Red Sox could conceivably start Josh Beckett and Jon Lester in three or four of the games, depending on some of the variables. That's a tough matchup for anybody.
The White Sox are the easier draw. Especially with Carlos Quentin out, the White Sox seem like the easiest opponent on paper. Chicago is 15-24 against the AL East this year, including a 5-4 record against Baltimore. That puts the White Sox at 10-20 against Boston, Tampa, New York and Toronto. The obvious logic is that the Red Sox could wipe out the White Sox in the first round and let Tampa deal with the Angels.
There is also this version: If the Red Sox can wipe out the White Sox quickly and the Rays can at least extend the series against the Angels, Tampa Bay could do sufficient damage to Los Angeles's rotation, shifting the ALCS pitching matchups in Boston's favor. For example: Facing John Lackey in Anaheim would be a far less appealing option for the Sox than having him pitch at Fenway Park, where the righthander has often struggled. (Of course, Lackey also nearly threw a no-hitter at Fenway earlier in the year. But you get the idea.)
Let the chips fall where they may. As Bill Belichick likes to say, it is what it is. When the Red Sox last played the Angels, they had yet to acquire Jason Bay, Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay, and David Ortiz had just returned to the lineup. These Sox are a much more balanced team, which is to say that their bullpen has improved and they are playing better defense. This might enhance their chances at winning close games, a specialty of the Angels.
This year, of the nine games the Sox and Angels have played, six have been decided by one or two runs. The Angels have won five of those games. These Sox are more equipped to win the low-scoring games than the ones from April through July.
After all, until Monday, the Sox hadn't won at Tampa Bay this season, either.
Which team would you rather see the Red Sox face in the first round? Let your voice be hard in our comments section. (Statistics updated through Tuesday's games.)
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Mazz, Again, you've missed Point 1----home field advantage!
I think it's pretty obvious based on your own arguments there IS a right answer. Win the division. Chicago is the weakest team, home field advantage in round 1, and the possibility that you face either the Rays or Angels coming off a tough, long, BP taxing five-game series, all add up to a great advantage in round 2. The only argument above, that the Angels being better therefore a short series gives the best chance to knock them off is invalidated by the stats at the end. Of the 9 games between the Angels and Sox, six have been close. Factor in a healthy Beckett, a settled bullpen, an all-around stronger team and a healthy Ortiz, and few would make the case the Angels are that much better.
Win the next two here in Tampa and coast to the crown.
i so miss peter gammons
Well...it is starting to look like the sox are going to play the angels in the first round with tonights loss.
But the good news is Carlos Pena hit a HR against the sox again! YAY! Awesome! He's from Boston and nice!
Rob from Rochester,
Didn't you see?
Information. Insight. Analysis.
That's what the Mazz brings!!!
Sox winning second means a quick exit from playoff vs. Angels.
I dont think the Sox can reach the world series going through The Angels and The Rays.
Best case scenario, to me, would be winning the East. Providing the Sox don't slump and the Rays don't get hot the Rays should fall about 3 games behind the Sox by end of Regular Season.
For those who haven't been paying attention, the Angels have been resting a lot of their regulars in the week since they won the division and there's no reason to think they will change that in the final 12 days of the regular season. It will be quite interesting to see if they can go from the spring training approach back to playoff baseball overnight. And let's not forget how much Tito has dominated Scioscia in the team's previous two playoff clashes.
Well, in someway, I sometime do not care about the first round playoff series cuz Boston have handle it so well over these years except losing to the White Sox three years ago. But if Boston win the division, they could force either Rays or Angels to play in a cold weather Fenway Park especially game #6 and #7. Dont think Boston cant handle well at the Dome or at Angels if either one are the host for the ALCS!!
Well, remember both times Boston won the WS, they were the homefield advantage for both world series due to new all-star format. And now this year, it is American League's turn again!!
With all the injuries that Boston have all year along, better off to win the division to play safe!
I'd rather see the BoSox play the Angels. Let's get all this Left Coast travel out of the way early in the AL playoffs. I hate the 10pm and 4pm (day game) start times.
Anybody who thinks the Sox cannot beat the Angels is silly. The Sox send Lester and Beckett against the Angels' best and that's an extremely likely split AT WORST. Then two games at the Fens including a chilly October night of Wake's dancing knuckler and a rested bullpen to take over after Dice-K's 5 2/3 innings, and you can see the Sox winning in four. Not saying it WILL happen, but Mazz is right on this one.
let's win the division and let tampa and anaheim wear each other out a little, while we rest up after sweeping the white sox...
in regards to Kotsay not being here for any of the Angels games, would that have mattered? .280 career with no power, he's about the last guy the Angels are worried about.
Tony, Statisticly I agree with you, but when you think about the intangibles...I disagree.
The Red Sox match up best against the Chicago, Tampa, then the Angels in that order. So, in a seven game series you want to play the team you suceed against because you can survive one bad game or a slow start. The Angels have owned the Sox all year. I want to play them in a short series where crazy things can happen. Also, the Angels have been in rest mode for a week, three weeks by game one of the playoffs. I would hope for a Game 1 win because the Angels are rusty. How many times since the wild card started has the first round knocked off the dominant team in the league? If you get a win in game one you can come home and sweep or get it atleast to game 5 where anything can happen. With only one win in 10 games I think the Sox need to look to the intangibles.
Bosox are toast and so are your fans! Glad to see your Sox fans down here will get to see the Rays raise the East Banner on opening day because they sure won't be in the stands but in front of the ole TV.
Terry from Tampa,
If I wasn't a Red Sox fan then I would probably be rooting for the Rays, but I'm not sure that they have done enough for you to be talking smack at all. Remember though the last two world series we won we were the wildcard
The starting pitching will be solid for the Sox in the playoffs. However, the problem has been the bullpen all season. Also, the lineup has too many holes. Who knows if Drew is coming back and Lowell is hobbling. I don't see them getting past the first round. I hope I am wrong, but I don't see this as their year. Tampa has more grit and the Angels more talent!
Mazz, come on man. It's the Tampa BAY Rays, not Tampa Rays. Get your stuff right.
Hey San Diego Sailor, the sox won the division in '07 and the wild card in '04, look it up. Come on people lets get our facts right here, it was last season for crying out loud.
First of all the red sox play their best in the post season. It doesn't matter who they play they're gonna go all the way and quite honestly the angels season record means nothing come playoff time. Anything can happen its almost like starting a new season!
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