Kazmir, Matsuzaka on the wild side
Every so often, baseball provides us with a statistical anomaly. Given today’s earlier post concerning Red Sox starters, the bullpen and Jon Lester’s invaluable ability to go deep into games, we cannot help but stress this again:
In the American League this season, there are currently 34 pitchers with at least 10 victories. Only three of them have averaged fewer than six innings per start.
Two of them are in this game.
What are the odds?
As much as Red Sox fans have pulled out their eyebrows during Daisuke Matsuzaka’s starts over the last two years, it is worth noting that Tampa Bay Rays followers have been having a similar experience with Scott Kazmir. Like Sox lefthander Lester, Kazmir turned 24 in January. Unlike Lester, he has to yet to gain command of his pitches and remains downright maddening, running his pitch counts so high that he frequently is out of the game before the end of the sixth inning.
Despite that, Kazmir is 11-6 with a 2.99 ERA and has held opponents to a .210 batting average. Against lefthanders, he has been downright nasty, helping to explain why David Ortiz is out of the lineup tonight in favor of Jeff Bailey. Entering tonight’s game, in 113 at-bats against Kazmir, lefthanded batters have been roughly 50 percent more likely to strike out (32) than get a hit (21), producing a meek .186 average and zero home runs.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Of the 14 homers Kazmir has allowed this season, all of them have been hit by righthanded batters.
In the immediacy of this Internet age, the comparison of Kazmir and Matsuzaka is worth exploring. In the longer term, the comparison of Kazmir and Lester is even more interesting. Here is a brief look at both:
Kazmir vs. Matsuzaka: Both are strikeout pitchers, both walk too many batters, both are tough to hit. (Each has held opposing hitters to an overall average of .210 this year.) As a result, both put inordinate strain on the relief corps, requiring their respective managers to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.
Among the 55 AL pitchers with at least 120 innings this year, Kazmir has been least efficient managing each at-bat, averaging a whopping 4.31 pitches per batter. Matsuzaka averages 4.04 pitches every plate appearance, the third-most in the league. Los Angeles Angels righthander Jered Weaver (4.11) sits in between.
(For what it’s worth, Paul Byrd has been the most efficient at just 3.32 pitches per plate appearance.)
The point here is that this game is likely to be turned over to the bullpens at a relatively early juncture, no matter how effective these pitchers are. Factor in the possibility of rain delays and this could be a long, long night.
Kazmir vs. Lester: In the last five months, Lester has blown right by Kazmir (who has twice the big league experience) and become the better pitcher. In 703 innings, Kazmir is 46-35 (mostly for a bad team) with a 3.52 ERA. Lester is 25-7 with a 3.86 ERA in roughly half the time (333 2/3 innings).
Still, given that both pitchers are only 24, there is the very real chance that Kazmir and Lester could be instrumental players in the AL East for years to come. As Sox general manager Theo Epstein said during spring training, Tampa’s collection of young talent could make the Rays "a force’" in the division for the next several years. Meanwhile, Epstein has stocked the Sox with ample young talent while possessing the spending power of a large-market club.
Just wondering: Over the next several years, could the Rays and Red Sox become what the Yankees and Sox once were?
If they do, two young lefthanders might very well be at the center of all discussion.
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