The 1-run conundrum

Insightful and researched commentary. For the informed and analytic fan and not pandering to idiots and trolls. The Mazz has grown on me and I look forward to reading his pieces every day almost as much as I do Bob Ryan and Dan Shaughnessy. Keep up the good work.

Holding your closer until you get a lead is simply the wrong way to approach extra innings. The Sox lost that game without having used their best reliever, that should not happen. Extra innings should be treated like the reverse of the first nine; start with your closer and run through your pitchers best to worst, then at least you'll have gooten your best into the game.

This is really excellent material. Explains the game changes very well. The Fenway factor is the elephant in this chat room. Hard to argue with 15-4 at home and 3-18 on the road.

I am not one of those fans to bash Francona. He is undefeated in the World Series for God's sakes. He's a lifelong baseball guy who can talk the ins and outs all night long.

But there is little doubt that Francona and Theo defy conventional basball wisdom at times, which fans who grew up on it find infuriating. Of course, you go to the lefty to face Cliff Floyd who will still be able to hit righties when he's 50. But Okijama has allowed more than 60 percent of inherited runners to score this year and Lopez is a walk machine. Francona made the right choice. Masterson simply blew it hitting Floyd.

That said, Francona's substitutions. use of PH/PR and lack there of, in the series against the Rays at home, under any playbook, looked like mistakes. Francona always juggles rest and use over the course of a season with trying to win the game. Only in the playoffs does he manage all out for the win, which may explain his success there and his frustrating mistakes during the season.

The Sox simply can't mash like they used to. But they have a lot of things they are very good at with plenty of depth. Francona needs to figure out the best way to use all his weapons (speed, some power, left/right matchups, deep bench) for the playoffs. I think he's sorting it out.

Francona wins far more than he loses as the manager. (Here come the Francoma haters!)

My long-winded answer is:

1) The Fenway factor is huge (the place is rabid. Players on both sides would have to be zombies not to be imacted postively and negatively).
2) The bullpen isn't as good as the Rays or Angels, most notablly the infuriating trend of walking too many batters in clutch situations. Almost always a bullpen meltdown is fueled by walks and hit batters. My blood pressure goes up just thinking about it, but that's Delcarmen, Oki, Lopez and somewhat Masterson's Achillies heel.

The botton line, if these Sox are going deep in the playoffs, it will have to be winning most games at home and having the occassional breakout game on the road.

I believe "PAP" should have been in the game in the 9th. Do you think the Yankees would think twice about putting Mo Rivera in to keep a tie game tied for the sake of an outright division lead, I don't think so. He would be in there getting 3 outs and the game would continue. This is the problem with this team this year. We need to start managing outside the box a little bit because the team that started the year is not the same team currently on the field night in and night out. We need to manufacture runs as best as we can so we can win these close games. I mean how in the world does Beckett pitch an 8 inning gem allowing one run and striking out 7 and we end up losing. That's totally unacceptable to Red Sox nation and should be unacceptable to Sox management and the coaches as well. This is absurd to say the least. I'm done venting and I had to get that point of my chest.

Part randomness and part running into better pens.If u look at run differential the sox dominate the rays and angels but they are behind both.Actually many would b surprised but the sox pen has been more effective on the road this year,lending to the theory that one run losses are largely random events.
Our inability to score vs. the top staffs (tampa,anaheim,Toronto) has also contributed to many of the close losses. There's a much better chance for a fluke type of event to cost u a game when you are scoring 3 runs or less in the game . Our record in games we score 3 or less is prob much worse than Tampa or Anaheim . They're pens are more consistent . All of this unfortunately doesn't bode well for us in October as we'll b running into some top staffs. Let's hope our pen can rise to the challenge and some of the randomness will fall our way.

As Francona has mentioned, after the ~7th inning or so, with a tied score, there is a built in advantage for all home teams (likely contributing to the 15-4 record you mentioned above.) I wish you would compare how the Sox do (on the road) and how the combined MLB road teams fair in these situations.

"Terry Francona has won two World Series here." I fail to see the truth in this, the people on the field must feel quite slighted by this. Do you think the pain that some of these players go through to stay peaked for every game is lessened by the fact that the manager gets credit for winning World Series Championships. If in fact the general belief is that the manager wins WS Championships then the opposite must be true; the Manager must be the reason they lose.

Thanks for posting my comment.

It seems to me that two things are happening re. the 1 run/late inning home/road differential. First, the better bullpens (notably the Rays and Angels - not Rivera so much who is in a class of his own), appear to throw virtually no pitches on the inner part of the plate so almost everything hittable is away. This generally means on the road three batters must collaborate for a run as -with Manny gone - only Ortiz has much power the opposite way. But at home, it appears a number of Sox - notably Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis and Lowell, too early to tell on Bay - have a wall ball stroke where they can loft a pitch even on the outside corner off the wall or if they're lucky over it. Thus, it takes only 1 or 2 batters to collaborate for a run. It also seems to influence the opposing pitchers as they also seem to get more walks in late innings at home. As many of these strokes would be outs in road parks, it seems the Red Sox resort to more small ball. Just an impression. Second, it seems the Red Sox pitchers throw differently than their opponents. They go for more strike outs so pitch both sides of the plate. Over the course of the season this probably pays off but it does mean more balls to pull and get runners in scoring position. The Masterson example you cited (which parallels the ninth inning 8/28 Masterson/Pudge at bat - I was in the stands behind the plate that day) is a good example. As Francona said, Masterson's in to get a DP. Yet with 2 strikes he/Varitek, switched to the slider (a strikeout pitch) as he did versus Pudge on both the 2-2 and 3-2 counts to no avail. I've seen it also with other pitchers and the Sox bull pen does seem to give up a fair number of 2 -strike hits (moreso than the starters). In summary, I think the Red Sox hitters and pitchers have approaches that (while probably favorable over 162X9 innings) may be contributing to the late inning phenomenom you cite.

To be honest, I hadn't really realized the one run losses the Sox have had. It's harder to follow the Sox now that I haven't lived in MA for almost 20 years. However, I have noticed how often the Rays seem to not only win by a run, but how often they come back and win at the end of a game. I have followed the Rays closely since they have been in first place and I can't believe how often my hopes have been dashed when they have been going into late innings losing. They have a knack to pull it out at the end, unfortunately.

The bottom line is the bullpen stinks. A different clown finds a way to blow these one run games each time. They are unreliable at best. Nobody has stepped up and been a consistent force. Even Paps can't be considered a lock any more.

Then there is Timlin. This guy needs to go!!!!!

I think just letting Beckett pitch three more outs would have solved everything. I know the Sox are big stat junkies and really take heed at the magic 100 pitch count, but when someone is rolling and pitching well like Beckett was, it makes no sense in taking him out. He's already set for a 4 day rest, save the bullpen. The same can be said for Sunday's game against Toronto. Lester was on fire. He was getting better the longer the game went on. I have no doubt he would have blown through the 9th inning. But they yanked him and almost lost the game with a shaky Papelbon. It if wasn't for some lucky breaks, that would have been a one run home loss. It's sad that a complete game is now such a rarity. Roy Halliday has more complete games than three combined teams with 4.

SO much more enjoyable to read your stuff than to (try to) listen to you on Frat House Goon Radio. On the air, you wouldn't have gotten through your second sentence before being interrupted or made the brunt of a tedious scatological joke.

Thanks, and keep these insights coming.

It forgot a very important factor - the reason it is one run in the first place. We lack balance and consistency as a hitting lineup...without Manny being there to string along the hitters...too often good hitters like Dustin and Jed are wasted since Bay, Lowell, Tek and even Ortiz all have HOLE in their swing pitchers can attack

We might not win more 1-run games with Manny, but there would be a lot of less one run games - eg last night, Manny would have killed that junk pitcher..we are really vunerable to the breaking/offspeed stuff now, as with Manny we killed people like Andy S, lackey, Sanders and Moyers..now these are the pitchers I really don'twant the Sox to face

Okajima should have gotten the loss last night. A wild pitch warming up? Come on. It cost Masterson a strike. Pena probably would have struck out. Then the fly ball to center to end the inning.

Papelbon should have pitched the 9th. What is accomplished by "saving" your closer it it means you lose? I believe this is Bill James' philosophy...

In support of the argument that "bad teams generally excel in one-run games because they lack the talent or skill to beat anyone by a greater margin":

Two years ago I heard an interview with Joe Torre in which he was asked about the Yankees and their record in one-run games. His response was that he thought one-run games were more of an issue with a bad team; the good teams blow out their opponents enough that fewer of the games are close, and in the close ones you'd rather lose by one run than by more, since that generally means that you're scoring runs.

combination of several things...the bullpen-- including Papelbon-- has not been as lights out as they were last year...the offense is NOT as explosive, so more close games are played (esp on the road)...the Red Sox dont bunt runners over even when the situation SCREAMS for advancement late in a close game...and, pure luck...or lack of same.

Let's not forget that Sox last night were without two middle-of-the-lineup hitters: Drew and Bay. This doesn't explain the year of 1-run losses, but when you're starting outfield has a combined HR total that's barely in the double digits, you've got to expect to be on the short end of these games more often than not.

RE: Pap. Let's keep our Eyes on the Prize, fellas! We need a strong and healthy Pap in Oct. Francona had the right matchups, it's just too bad that his 20-something pitcher couldn't find the plate. The numbers were on Francona's side, but fate wasn't. What can you do? Good Job Mazz. Love your analysis.

Good

Goo

I see a shocking lack of fundamental baseball execution in extra innings. The way I was taught, a runner on second should always produce a run. Every player on the team should be able to move the runner from second to third. If a player can't bunt, he has to be able to hit a grounder to the right side of the infield. If he can't, pinch hit for him.

And every player on the team should be able to get a runner home from third. I couldn't believe what I saw the other night. They had the bases loaded with no outs in the 10th and failed to score. There's simply no excuse for that.

Papelbon has seen a LOT of baserunners in 2008...he is not the comfort zone he was last year.

Matsuzaka rarely goes past 5 or 6 innings and while he is 17-2, half those wins should be shared with the bullpen, which he taxes with almost every start.

I don't agree that the offense is lighter without Ramirez. The Sox have won every series since the 8/31 trade, except for one, losing 2 of 3 to the Rays at Fenway alst week.

In the post season, the bullpen will be better, because a couple of starters will be in there.

funny thing is the first thing I thought after the Sox loss last night was the number of 1-run losses to the Rays already must be like 8....(not exactly, but 6).
And it's not like we haven't had our chances either to win these games. I really just think the Rays have executed better in the close games than we have. Their bullpen is solid, too. Sox need to win tonight and get back the momentum.
Can you believe we are talking about the Rays and not the Yankees as our chief rival down the stretch? Refreshing, huh?

I would consider looking at their overall record since trading MannyHeadaches to LA before microanalyzing every aspect of their game.

Did it occur to any of you that Masterson could use that experience last night? He is untested in big game situations, putting him in to fail/succeed gives him some valuable big game experience. I think using Masterson last night in that situation was a good move by Francona. You know he hesitates to stick Pap out there for much more than 3 outs. So say he does bring Pap in, and the Rays go down 1-2-3 and the Sox are able to squeeze one run across. Circumstances would obviously dictate if Pap could go out there another inning, but for argument sake, maybe he throws Masterson out there for the save and he blows it... Now you would have used your lights out closer for essentially nothing (and fatiguing him further in the season long marathon). In my mind, sending Masterson out there to sink/swim gets him ready for the playoffs, regardless of the outcome. If Masterson shuts down the Rays and Pap gets the save, nobody would be saying OH PAP SHOULD'VE PITCHED THE 9th NOT THE 10th! I think a lot more was at work last night than simply, "oh it's a tie game, Papelbon can only pitch with a lead..."

Great article, Mazz. Thanks for the insightful and informed commentary!

It's plain and simple:
The Sox just continue to choke whenever they get close to Tampa Bay.

Our bullpen needed help and we did not address in off-season or at trade deadline. Epstein needs to get off his ass and get some middle relievers. You got 9 mil now that Manny is not here and another 8 mil because Shilling is gone. Don't count on winning playoff games this year w/out being able to win 1 run games on the road!

One run or ten runs the truth is simple the Red Sox are not one of the top teams in the AL. Facts prove that they are at best the third team in the AL East. Had Tronto not gotten of to such a poor start the race would be between them and the Rays. Francona is a nice guy who is well liked and that leads to him being over rated as a manager by both the fans and press. There is all to many times that he seems unaware of moves or strategies that other managers utilize in various situations that work.

What were the 1-run records for the 2004 & 2007 teams? That should help tell us if it matters or not.

Totally agree with David Wexler. Great analysis Mazz.....keep up the good work

RULE NO.1: Do not send in a reliever simply because of his handedness or because it's his turn or because of his prior record with particular batters.. Do send him in when he's ON (in the bullpen he can locate his pitches and do so consistently -- a coaches call). If he's ON, consider handedness as well.

RULE NO. 2: Do not yank a reliever who is ON (an umpire's call, a catcher's call) simply based on handedness. Do yank a reliever who turns out not to be ON
early enough (particularly in one run games.)

Most managers (including Francona) do not follow these rules.

The bullpen is the most important factor in winning close games. Could partially be the park, but these guys have played in so many parks over their careers I'm not sure that matters a whole lot. Also, 9 of the 1 run losses have been against AL East opponents (they know those parks) and 6 were in TB and BAL (practically home games). As far as offensive philosophy/manager and how that might not work the same with Manny gone, the argument doesn't hold up; winning pct., batting avg., runs scored per game, and margin of win are all up since Manny left. The "peculiar plays" in section d were actually a hit, a walk, a walk, and then a hit to win the game. Not that peculiar, more like a bad bullpen appearance. The ball coming onto the field was mildly peculiar (the bullpen even messing things up from the bullpen) but they still could have turned that AB into an out. Randomness works for and against you evenly over the course of the season, and it doesn't just target away games.

Can we all stop with this "diluted lineup post-Manny" nonsense? Remove emotion from it, and look at the numbers. Bay's Boston numbers are superior to Manny's for 2008. You could look it up.

Mazz: What about the fact that the Sox are relying on rookies (Lowrie, Masterson, et al.) in crucial games and at crucial times? Most of these guys are pleased just to be here let alone carry a team forward. There's a reason vetran teams prevail after the All Star break. I've got to believe that, with another year or two of seasoning, Masterson would not have imploded last night.

This is a perfect example of new-old baseball writing fusion. I oftentimes wouldn't enjoy hearing your arguments on EEI, but perhaps that's b/c you're at your best when armed with some numbers. Let's hope the Globe trends this way over the anecdotal, small-sample opinion making of Dan and Bob.

Call it the Globe Bottom 10. Not so catchy, but a better use of numbers than countdown timers and horns.

As for Paps, he only has so many appearances in him, so Francona's reluctance to overuse him, or any other player, is why they've lost some painful battles while winning 2 of the last 4 "wars". And comparing him to the best and fortunately healthy closer in history (Mo) doesn't shed light on anything.

I'm also low on confidence regarding our ability to score runs against good bullpens. And we all know LA and TB have V GOOD pens. So enjoy it while it lasts, we're playing with house money.

It comes down to two things. Lack of late inning explosiveness as exemplified by the loss of both Manny and Ortiz and the 90 HR they used to produce. Bay and the new Papi are 60 HR guys. It gets worse with Drew and Lowell not producing and got even worse when Bey left for the day. But, the long run problem is still lack of late inning explosiveness on the hitting side.

The pen is the other problem. Totally inconsistent and only one reliever of real quality this year. Okaji-san is not the same guy, and there never was a right-handed set up guy which is why a AA-rookie was pitching the 9th inning yesterday. As much as I admire what Theo has done, he has never gotten the bullpen right.

Money from the loss of Manny, the end of Schilling and maybe (fingers crossed) the removal of Lugo and/or Coco for some sort of savings (given that the Sox would have to eat part or most of their contracts to move them) would still free up 15 to 20 mil. And who knows what will happen with Tek.

After catcher, the pen is the place the Sox must emphasize.

The genius Francona:
September 9, 2008
Bottom of the 9th inning trailing by 2 runs.
First batter - Kotsay walks
Second batter - Varitek tries to bunt(great idea) and eventually strikes out.
ONE OUT
Third batter - Ortiz flies to right
TWO OUTS
Fourth batter - Crisp
The light finally went on - pinch run for Kotsay
Ellsbury steals second and ends up on third because of a bad throw.
Let me see, if Ellsbury had gone into run for Kotsay before Varitek hit and Ellsbury had just stolen second. I like my chances of scoring a run with a runner on second with no outs than a runner on third with two outs.
Remember what B.S., M.S., and Ph. D. stands for Dr. Francona.

Francona fan in general, but would argue that he has not always had the best lineup on the field for the situation - Kotsay ended up walking in the 8th, but he is 1 for his last 19 - shouldn't he have sent up someone like Casey or Bay? I for one have seen far too much Kotsay over the last few weeks - a nice bench player, but getting way too much time over Coco and Jacoby.

First off, you are doing a killer job Tony ...

I think the Sox sometimes rely too much on stats, and not the situation at hand ... Masterson LOOKED like he was going to give it up. I can't be the only one in the nation who was cursing Tito for not bringing in Paps after 2 guys got on. You cannot always go with past performance, it is an art knowing when to yank a guy before the damage is done ... last night Tito was not very artistic.

But forget all that, Bay not being there was huge with Lowell hobbling. When you have two guys on in a tight game and Tek comes to the plate, you know it is time to go get a beverage. Bay batting 5th or 6th would have changed that game. And a healthy Papi = 3rd ring in 5 years ... lets hope his swing comes back.

It is always easier to win at home. There is no pressure on the hitters in a tied game. Everyone can swing for the fences. The true measure is not whether you can win a tied game but can you come from behind

I have not watched the ins and outs of every Sox game, as I'm on the west coast. The most important stat from here is wins and losses in the close games against the Rays and the Angels. From afar it appears that the Sox can't win these games.

It is as much the lack of timely hitting as the relief pitching, which clearly they lack. They are facing superior bullpens and they choose to hit into double plays at the end of tight games. The Angels instead manufacture the run and that's why the Angels win more games. Look for an early exit from the playoffs unless things change and they can overtake the Rays.

2 thoughts on this:

1. If a game is close for the last several innings between evenly matched teams and bullpens, maybe it is a significant advantage to be the home team. (Because you get the final at-bat of the inning). I find it interesting that the Sox are simultaneously poor in road 1-run games and excellent in home ones, and I wonder if it's just a fluke or indicative of something fundamental. Tony, you touch on this somewhat in part (c) of your article....I'd be interested in some additional research on it.

2. Bill James wrote an interesting article in his baseball abstract about optimal ways of using closers, and advanced an argument for bringing them in when the game is tied or 1 run either way, and for other situations, using other relief pitchers. Tony's comment at the end of part (c) reminded me of this, and got me wondering to what extent the Red Sox try to do this with Papelbon, whether they change their approach depending on whether it's a home or away game, and how effective it is. Also I wonder if they've updated or refined the ideas of the baseball abstract article, during the time that James has worked directly for the team.

Is anybody willing to admit that Theo's desire to get rid of Manny has really hurt this team. Whenever Manny was in the lineup you always had the chance of ending the game with one swing good pitcher or bad. Have you ever seen a batter as keyed in as Manny was during the Cleveland playoff series last year? Fact is with Ortiz not 100% there is no one to REALLY fear in a 1 run game in the Sox lineup. No Manny Ramirez, no 2004 OR 2007 no matter how good our pitching was in '04. His way of keeping things loose with goofy comments and his extraordinary ability to rise to the occasion unlike many great hitters of the game i.e A Rod etc. make his "giveaway" one of the dumbest moves in Red Sox history, yes on par with the " you know who" trade. Theo has been trying to rid the Sox of Manny's contract for years and the Boston media has done everything they could to run him out of town. Now everyone
has their wish and they now lament the fact that we can't score runs. $20 million? They would make that money 10 times over with a couple more World Series titles under their belts. Ask the Dodgers. Ask Big Papi. Ramirez brought many intangibles besides being a hitting machine. You just knew with him in the lineup we would figure a way to get it done. Now? I really hope the Sox win it all and I will root till the end but you will never convince me that this wasn't one of the dumbest trades in Red Sox history. Think theYanks can't use Manny?

Its managing - or lack of it. And its usually against the Rays head to head.

In addition to last night, there was last Wednesday's 4-2 home loss to the Rays. Tie game in the bottom of the 10th. With man on first and second with no out and Youklis up, Francona has him hit away rather than give up the out to move the runners over - double play. Tie game in the bottom of the 12th. With a runner on first with no out Francona has Ortiz bunt, giving up the out to move the runner over. The guy is erratic. Its the drunk driver theory. If you made it home without wrecking, that lucky outcome must mean it was a good idea to drive drunk. Francona is a facilitator, NOT a game time manager. And now that he doesn't need to be Manny's babysitter, his soothing demeanor is useless.

My guess is home and road is one of the big factors in one run games. I agree that the bullpen is a big factor as well and bullpen problems get a lot more chances to show up on the road than at home usually.

The Sox bullpen is better now than earlier in the year, although you can still lose a game like last night's with at least 2 random events working in the Rays' favor in the ninth. Do the numbers in one-run/close games bear that out as the bullpen has improved?

Going forward, I think they should be okay in close games with their current bullpen. A little more work to manufacture runs in games where they are scarce would certainly be helpful.

I agree with B D'angelis, the bullpen is awful. Keep hearing the term inconsistent to describe this years version. That is being way too generous. Bullpen gets lucky once in awhile but far too many times it finds a way to loose the game. Not too many clean innings by Papelbon either. Unfortunately this lousy pen will sink us in the playoffs, very likely in the first round. Unless we can get complete games by our starters, which is a strength, we will exit early. No question either Tampa or LA will represent the AL in the WS. Both have strong starters, equal to the Sox, but have far superior bullpens. Job one for Theo in the offseason will be to completely reconstruct the pen. Timlin, loved what you have done for the Sox over the years, but it is high time for you to retire.

A Great analysis. Thanks!
Offense: In this new no-Manny world we have speed and contact hitters. This said we need to be using those strengths to manafacture runs in late innings. I think if we use our speed and if our hitters would drive the ball more and hit the pitch where its thrown ( versus uppercutting for home runs) we would score more in bunches. Just think if Ortiz would once in a while hit to the opposite field against the shift.
Pitching: We are where we are, We need to revamp the pen and get some guys who throw strikes consistently- be more like Beckett/Lester and less like Dice-K.
I think the BP is in a transition year and probably won't carry us too far

The whole strategy, in terms of both bullpen and at-bats in close games, changes in the post-season. One win in the post-season is worth much more than one win in the regular season. So I'm sure Tito will adjust his strategy, as he did in '04, to win close games.

This is not a good excuse but there have been some bad calls by the umpires in some of the one run games that have gone against the sox. If everything else goes exactly the same except for the extra strike to pena, that game would have gone into extra innings.

Josh Beckett should have pitched the ninth. This era is too full of specialization. It seems a collective amnesia has gripped Major League Baseball, leaving us with a dogma that pitchers must be "babied" or they will suffer injuries. That is total bull. Many pitchers are babied and still go down with injuries, suggesting it's in the physical makeup of the individual. We all know the strain pitching puts on an arm, but the list of pitchers with long careers who logged 300-inning seasons is too lengthy to post here. I'm not suggesting the exaggerated ways of Billy Martin having four starters complete over 20 games each. But there should be a middle ground. The pendulum has swung way too far the opposite way. The starters need to log more innings and then we could wave good-bye to the scores of relievers who don't belong in major league baseball. By the way, I think Terry Francona has done a fine job. I don't always agree with him, but he's won two World Series for Boston, something I thought I'd never live to see.

Two big issues for the Sox this year: One, aside from Pap, the bullpen is very spotty. I'm not telling anyone out there what they don't know already on that issue. Two: the Manny trade changed the entire character of the order. I love Youk, I like Bay, but when you get these guys or a Pedroia batting third ... or God forbid, fourth ... one thing sticks out like a sore thumb: Big Papi is exposed. As great as the aforementioned players are, no one is really afraid of them like they were of Manny, and David's production suffers. I've read all the reasons why we dumped the greatest hitter of the modern era, but just look at the stats he's put up in LA, and drool. I think the Sox should have said to Manny when he quit, "Ok, we drop the options, you're free after this year. Just play hard from now on." I think we'd have been golden for the 2008 championship if we had.

Umpires stink. Case closed.

It's a statistical reality that good teams, when they lose, will lose by fewer runs than bad teams, and conversely when they win they will win by more runs than bad teams. The Red Sox road record 37-40 is not so bad. Only three AL teams have lost fewer games on the road...Los Angeles, New York and Tampa. The median margin of loss is low and the median margin of victory is high...that's the mark of a pretty good team. If you lose a comparatively lower number of games on the road than most teams and a large number of them are just one-run losses that probably is an indication that you are pretty good road team, even when you lose.

It's very simple really - Francona's unwillingness to use Pap in a tie game. Saves mean nothing, use your best pitcher when you need him most. Once there was a man on in the 9th, it was time for Pap.

You need to be in the lead to get a save. If you lose the game in the 9th, you don't get to save it.

Fans and media need to relinquish the save as being valuable. It is meaningless. You can lose the game in the 7th or 8th inning just as easily as the 9th. If it's a playoff game and the Sox are leading by a run in the 7th and face bases loaded with nobody out, I want Pap to come in then and there.

Great topic and start up, Mazz. I heard Theo cite the one-run road losses as a big key on his first radio appearance after the trade, so it was a problem then. There may be several contributing factors, including this one:

With apologies to Scott San Fran's excellent post, the elephant in the room may be the fact that NOBODY is winning on the road. By one run or many. As of today, there is one (1) AL team with a winning road record, the Angels. They are freakishly balanced at 49-29 (h) and 43-29 (a). The NL has only three of sixteen teams above .500 away from home (Phi, ChC and Mil), none really balanced.

With 2,250 odd games played, it seems like a real trend. And it is new. On this date, from '03 through '07, typically five or six AL teams had winning road records, with a high of seven in '06 and a low of four in '04. Most of the playoff contenders, with rare exceptions, were above .500 away from home.

This collapse in road wins league wide has gotten almost no press. One commentator suggested the crackdown on amphetamines this year has left players tired and worn down by travel. That explanation might predict that fewer and fewer teams would sustain a winning road record, as the summer wore on. In fact, it was just the Angels (and three NL teams) on June 1st, and the numbers and teams haven't changed much since.

The MLB has become the NBA, basically, for this year at least. I am not a conspiracy guy. But I can't help thinking about how basketball manages to send sends the ticket holders home happy most nights -- whenever the Ump blows a late inning strike call against the sox on the road. Maybe I'm hallucinating...

Any ideas about the this? Until we understand what's causing the larger trend, I'm not sure we'll ever understand the 'near miss' variation on the theme that has the Sox losing one run games away from Fenway.

I'd actually be curious about two other "1 run" situations re: the Sox::

(1) what's their record when leading by ONE RUN after 7?

(2) what's their record when trailing by ONE RUN after 7?

A good team should win 90% of the former, and half of the latter.

Interesting article. We loose to many one run games because we have a manager who is afraid to sacrifice and won't pull pitchers when its clear they don' have it! As for Francona winning two world series, didn't he have a team with the second highest payroll in baseball? Didn't he also have a hot team entering the playoffs both times? I generally like him but often question his use of the penn, which was clearly evident last night, good managers would have definitely tried either Lopez or Okijima in that situation. Francona can only manage well with lots of runs, he is not a manager for close games. I would take Madden or Socia any day.. they both now how to manufacture runs!

You have to sometimes bunt in big low scoring games to win. Why Terry did not pinch hit for Lowrie last night in the 9th inning was amazing. Can someone please explain what is the matter with Sean Casey. That should have been his at bat in the 9th inning. I am also perplexed at why he let Masterson pitch instead of Javy Lopez a left hander or even Okajima. The Rays batters were predominately l;eft handed in the bottom of the 9th. That was a tough spot to put a rookie in when you want the game.

The manager is the reason the Sox are 3-18 in one run games. Thank God with their talent Terry can just sit and spit most games. However, when he feels there is a cause for "managing" he either does too much or none at all; thus, you have their atrocious record in one run games. It isn't rocket science Terry, it's baseball.

The manager is the reason the Sox are 3-18 in one run games. Thank God with their talent Terry can just sit and spit most games. However, when he feels there is a cause for "managing" he either does too much or none at all; thus, you have their atrocious record in one run games. It isn't rocket science Terry, it's baseball.

Home team gets last at bat for that walk off win. With the hit last night that went deep in the outfield and the bases loaded, two runs would've scored. They only needed one. The mistake was not bringing Beckett out for the bottom of the ninth. His pitch total was only around 90. then bring in the relievers for extra innings.

Wasn't Paplebon a starter? shouldn't he go more than one or two innings? Why bring a rookie to try to win one of the most important games of the season? poor manager decisions Forget Manny He was laying down because he was working on next years contract . Look how he's playing for the Dodgers compared to the last month he played in Boston We should beat Tampa every time we meet . Just poor managing

Couple of thoughts on some posts...
#36 - you don't pinch run Ellsbury with a runner on first no outs because you need two runs not one and you're hoping some bats show up. If you need one run, you put in Ellsbury and try to manufacture the run, hard to manufacture two runs, gotta let the bats do it.
#42 - As noted earlier, winning pct., batting avg., runs scored per game, and margin of win are all up after the Manny trade. Not sure how that hurts.
#43 - Two on, no outs, need two runs, you want Youk (26 HR, 106 RBI, .310 AVG., .940 OPS) swinging away. One on, no outs, tie game, you bunt Ortiz because you only need one run and he's successfully bunted for a hit into the shift in the past.

Wasn't Paplebon a starter? shouldn't he go more than one or two innings? Why bring a rookie to try to win one of the most important games of the season? poor manager decisions Forget Manny He was laying down because he was working on next years contract . Look how he's playing for the Dodgers compared to the last month he played in Boston We should beat Tampa every time we meet . Just poor managing

It's George Bush's fault...

Eman, It was not Theo's desire to get rid of Manny. It was Manny's desire to get out.
While it's true that the Sox lineup lacks the punch it had with Manny, Manny was about to quit for the season and the lineup would not have included him down the stretch as he was removing himself from the lineup at every chance he got. Manny was convinced that he needed to move on to get his final contract and he was not going to produce for the Red Sox . Don't blame Theo as he filled the hole with the best available option. Does Bay scare pitchers like Manny? No he does not. But Manny wouldn't be scaring any pitchers from the bench or DL , which is where he would be if still in a Sox uniform.

Hey, I've already called the team about this. There is a link on the mainpage of redsox.com that says you can download a red sox toolbar. BUT, if you click on it, you get a yankees toolbar! [as of about 5 pm Wed.9/17.]
The IT dept at the Sox blamed this on mlb.com but said they will take care of it!
Be careful!

Do they miss Manny now or what??? Manny gets clutch hits in money time (he was NL MVP for the last month). The BoSox can't buy a clutch hit right now...either club 'em to death or fold with the accordian bullpen late.

The psychological problem now is what happens when a team is playing the Rays and the score is tied in the 7th? Angels 3-6 against the Rays begin to wonder if the destiny thing is working against them. Feels a lot like the 2004 BoSox.

Francona has been managing a certain way since he came here and i dont think any Redsox fan can argue with the results, let the man do his thing! And I'll take our rotation against anyone else out there, and our relievers are no slouches

Good article, very interesting. This one-run thing is a concern.

The Sox are a good team, especially at home, but I'm not sure they have what it takes to go all the way in '08. Nobody wants them to more than I do, but I just have a feeling this year that they may be one and done (or two and done at best). If the starting pitching goes totally lights out, they may prove me wrong, which I hope is the case.

Jed Lowrie is hitting around .800 with runners in scoring position, that's why he wasn't pinch hit for last night in the 9th.

Needless to say I was surprised to fine you had moved, but I am happy you will now receive the recognizton you deserve. Paraphasing what a radio caller said:: "He didn't always agree but always found you to be honest and fair-minded." I'll add extremely hard working and informative. Thanks for the many years at your old address.

I double--No, triple--endorse Mike's comments (#11)

close games against quality pitchers are the games where manny's impact is most noticed. it may be that he quit on the team this summer, but when it truly mattered, he's one of the few guys that can hit anyone. tenacity is all well and good, but particularly against balfours, bells and wheeler types, i wish we still had ramirez in the lineup--just look at ethier and blake and what they now do with manny in between them.

Take a stand and admit that the manager certainly has a lot to do with the outcome of one-run games, win or lose. I'm willing to bet that Mike Scioscia has an outstanding record in one-run games this season. In fact, I just looked it up and the Angels this year are 23-13 in one-run games and 21-5 in games decided by two runs. Francona has proven to be a good manager for the long haul, but I wouldn't take him over Scioscia, Maddon, Gardenhire or Piniella in a tight game. Maybe this, maybe that - you're paid to give an opinion. It would be refreshing to read someone who calls it as they see it.

Francona is the reason for their poor record in one-run losses. You often hear successful managers explain their reasons for having someone bunt or hit-and-run early in a playoff game because he "got a feeling early on that it would be a close game in the end." I have NEVER heard Francona say this in a regular season game, never mind in the postseason. Francona needs to anticipate more early on in a game and get a better feel for how it likely will end up. While I credit him for managing two WS-winning teams, I agree more with the previous post and give more credit to the pitchers who dominated the Cardinals and Rockies, respectively. Any of us, for example, could have named the same starters (Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling and Lester) in last year's WS.

Scioscia's Angels have a good record in close games because of the bullpen. Tito has to work with what he's got.
The people who actually throw/catch/hit the ball have to perform. Managers have an impact on the outcome but it's a tiny impact. The difference between Scioscia, Maddon, Gardenhire, Piniella and Tito is minimal. It's the players who win and lose games. Could he have put Paps in the other night when the game was tied? Sure, but Paps hasn't exactly been lighting it up his past couple appearances.
"Francona needs to anticipate more early on in a game and get a better feel for how it likely will end up." You're insane. Managers who say they "got a feeling early on that it would be a close game in the end" are lucky. For every manager who bunt or hit-and-run early in a playoff game and had it end up working out, there's one who did it and lost.

No matter how you see this, facts don't change. Check them on this report:

In 21 one-run games, 3 wins & 18 LOSSES. Winning percentage = 14%
In 16 games tied after 7th, 7 wins & 9 LOSSES. Winning percentage = 44%.

How can you lose 18 out of 21 games? Why? Delayed pitching change.
Francona always trusted his pitchers, then changed them after allowing scores.
Lehman CEO missed all chances to sell, then sell to Barclays after bankruptcy.

Dumb and Dumber.