Red Sox and division is fuzzy math

Mazzarotti, you're not the sharpest tooth in the hammerhead at times.

The Red Sox want the BEST RECORD in the American League: better than Tampa Bay, better than Chicago, Minnesotta, and especially better than the Angels.

It would give them HOME FIELD advantage during the playoffs.

Comprende???????

Geeeesh. In an effort to stir the pot with something controversial, you forgot to use commone sense in your article.

Bad habit you have there.

Tony Mazz,

I agree with Steve (but I won't be so blunt). If you start your article harping on the Red Sox home record this year, and in years past, making a push to win the division is a must. If you look at home records across baseball this year vs. other years, the difference is extreme- no other recent year has home field meant so much. They should make the push now and deal with the consequences when they arrive.

Great article with excellent points. The division title would be nice, but being rested going into the playoffs is the most important thing. What good is home field advantage if Beckett, Lester, and Dice-K are worn out?

winning the division means little to post season success
Mazz is right; set the rotation, dont overwork Papelbon; continue to use Beckett conservatively, and rest Papi and Tek in spots; and we will still win 95-97 games; Tampa maybe wins more, but who cares?

if healthy, we can and will beat the Angels.

My opinion is that a division title is equal to if not superior to a WS title. Frequently the teams that play in the WS are the ones that happen to be hot at that time (see Colorado last year). A division title means you were the best team over 162 games-it's a significant achievement and should be celebrated. I have to think the players think that way too-compare the celebrations last year for clinching a playoff spot (barely any) to winning the division (debut of the papelbon underwear riverdance).

So far Mazz I'm not too impressed. I think I'll just stick with Chad Finn.

Masarotti, you undermine your own point when referencing 2004! You mention that the Sox called off the dogs with a week left and a "remote" chance of the division crown. Right now, we're 1 1/2 games back, on September 8th, opening a 3 game set against the team we're behind! The Sox will play hard for the next week and a half and try and build a division lead, and THEN let the chips fall where they may. But make no mistake, the division crown is important to them, not for the accompanying pennant, but because it means avoiding a well rested and aligned ANGELS rotation in the first round, instead meeting the cupcake of the AL Central and letting the Angels line up against Kazmir, Shields, and Garza.

Mazz, in addition to Steve44's good point, I will add that the biggest variable determined by where the Red Sox finish is the first round opponent in the playoffs. If the Sox win the division, they get a "double-bonus" of facing the White Sox with home field advantage. Whereas if the Red Sox take the wild card berth, they will face the Angels on the road ... a team that has owned the Sox this year and one that most baseball experts see as the most complete team in the AL.

The column assumes that the Sox could relax, rest their starters, and coast into a wild card slot. WRONG! The Sox will have to show up ready to play hard to play .500 over the remaining games with TB, TOR, and maybe even the NYY.

The Sox have made good judgements and been lucky (Bay, Kotsay's starts) so far. Let's keep at it a little while before starting to coast.

I don't know, Tony - I appreciate the "worshipping false gods" metaphor - I may have to steal that... but I think that home-field advantage at Fenway is real, and not something to be cast aside like a false idol.

It comes down to a matter of degree, as many things do: if the difference is a game or two that you must win, I say go for it, try to win the division even if it means pitching, say, Lester & Matzuzaka one more time each. That would be a reasonable risk to take. If it's going to require a 5 or 6-game win streak right at the end & the whole staff will be taxed, then let it go.

Thanks Masarotti. I was looking forward to a good series, but now that you put it the way you do, why bother even watching?

The Red Sox are 1-8 this year against the Angels, who happen to have the best record in the American League. If the Red Sox get the wild card, they have to beat a team they've beaten once all year in the first round. If they get the division title, they play Chicago or Minnesota in the first round, both of which they've handled. They have a much easier time of getting to the ALCS by going through the Central Division, and you can't win the World Series without winning the pennant. Sorry, Tony, I'll take the easier path.

Does anyone really care what you think?

Go back with your buddy tomase you deserve each other.

Tony, doesn't the 4-seed (wildcard) likely play the Angels in LA, while the 2-seed (likely the east winner) host the beat up White Sox or Twins? While I agree resting the starters is the priority, that seems like a big first round difference and might be worth the effort...

I agree with Mike and Wake. The division title is important so as to NOT have to face the Angles in the first round. An LA team that will have coasted since the All-Star break and will be rested and ready. Sure the Sox have beaten them in the playoffs like rented mules since the Donnie Moore game - but there are only so many times before the mule will start kicking back and you want to avoid that as long as possible.

Facing a White Sox squad that will be w/o Quinton and in a battle with the Twins until the end won't be as fresh (and neither would Minnesota for that matter should they take the division). With the NL team with the best record getting to determine which playoff series they want this year - in the AL the next best thing is getting yourself against the opponent that will give you the best chance of advancing. For the Red Sox that means winning the division and taking on the Central winner.

Great column. I have to agree with Mazz, although I don't want to. And with tonight's beginning of the series with the Rays, it's not a popular sentiment. But given our postseason mastery of the Angels (dating back to my early fandom, '86) I'm not afraid of'em despite their regular season dominance this year.
It's a tightrope trying to balance getting rested and ready with not losing momentum, but if they can manage it it'll give us our best chance of... REPEATING as World Champions. God that feels incredible to say.

The Red Sox are 1-8 this year against the Angels, who happen to have the best record in the American League. If the Red Sox get the wild card, they have to beat a team they've beaten once all year in the first round. If they get the division title, they play Chicago or Minnesota in the first round, both of which they've handled. They have a much easier time of getting to the ALCS by going through the Central Division, and you can't win the World Series without winning the pennant. Sorry, Tony, I'll take the easier path.

Its not as either/or as Mazz tries to make it here. The benefits, particularly this year (see your own arguments about Rays v. Red Sox home/away splits), of winning the home field and not playing the Angels on the road are significant. But with three games left I doubt they will pitch Beckett and Lester to try to win and not have them lined up for the playoffs. That's about the only distinction. They may rest Pedroia some and hopefully Tek, but Youk, Drew, Lowell, Ortiz need to play to get back to peak. All have missed time with injury. Crisp is just now finding his stroke for the first time since he arrived in Boston... he needs to ride this out. Ellsbury needs to hit. Sitting guys and playing weak lineups has been the NORM the past few months. Playing with the top Nine for a while would be the best way to prepare for the playoffs AND win the division. Think about it: How many times have we seen this lineup:
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Youk
Bay
Drew
Lowell
Lowrie
Tek
Not ONCE I'm pretty sure, and yet it would seem to be our best lineup in the playoffs.

If the point is resting the players, that has already been happening. Only 3 players (Pedroia, Bay and Ellsbury) have played in >90% of the team's games and Youk is close to that number. For the pitchers, only Lester is projecting out to >200 IP. The pitchers are not at insane # of IP and the position players are not all playing 162 games. I agree with the posters above and respectfully disagree with Tony Mazz that home field advantage is more important for this team than the perceived R&R to set up the rotation and rest the position players.

Your article raises an interesting point, but it may be a bit premature, and the value of the division is worth more than just home field advantage. This isn't 1967, with Jim Lonborg pitching on the last day to win the pennant. It may be possible, at this point, to work toward a division championship AND position the team for the playoffs. Tampa Bay must perform the same balancing act. Now, if it comes down to that last game on September 28, that would be different.
I also agree with others that it's more than just home field advantage that's at stake. Winning the division would dramatically affect their playoff chances. In addition to the possibility of home field advantage in at least one series, facing Chicago in the first round would be preferable to facing the Angels in a 5 game series.

I love the short sighted arrogance of Red Sox fans and their commentators. The Jays are on a roll. If you concentrate on the six remaining games with the Rays and forget about the 7 remaining games with the Jays, it is likely to bite you in the posterior. As a Jays fan, I can tell you that they are currently playing better than either the Rays or the Sox. Ignore the Jays at your peril, as they can still catch the Red Sox.

mazz you miss the point. The sox have ALREADY rested their players..i.e lowell, youk, beckett, papi, drew and on and on...so they are primed for the stretch run. winning the division is important, and theo and crowd know this.

Hey Mazz,
I won't say I disagree with your column, but there is a difference between the division title and wild card: The Opponent. Wouldn't you much rather play the winner of the Central Division in the first round? I think I would. That alone is enough of a reason to go for the division title...but not if it means you can't lineup your pitching the last week of the season.

If the BoSox win the AL East, they will play the ChiSox in the opening round of the playoffs. The White Sox have just lost their MVP candidate (Carlos Quentin) and their over-acheiving 3rd baseman (Joe Crede) for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, as previous commenters have stated, the Angels are already in playoff prep mode. It makes sense that the Red Sox try for the AL East title, gain homefield advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs and face the beaten up White Sox. Laying up now to face an Angels team that is much better offensively than the two previous times we met in the post season does not put the Sox in he best position.

WC = 3 games in LA.

Sure the Sox have been better on the road lately, but I wouldnt sit back and feel comfortable about that situation.

3 games at home vs Chicago or Minnesota is much better.

you guys are crazy, the division title means nothing, absolutely nothing at all. Mazz is completely right

If the BoSox win the AL East, they will play the ChiSox in the opening round of the playoffs. The White Sox have just lost their MVP candidate (Carlos Quentin) and their over-acheiving 3rd baseman (Joe Crede) for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, as previous commenters have stated, the Angels are already in playoff prep mode. It makes sense that the Red Sox try for the AL East title, gain homefield advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs and face the beaten up White Sox. Laying up now to face an Angels team that is much better offensively than the two previous times we met in the post season does not put the Sox in he best position.

I just made the same argument to my buddy last night. The Division would be nice but getting the Sox house in order is more important. If Beckett, Dice-K and Lester are healthy and ready, I will take them over the top 3 of any team in the AL and come WS the AL has home field again anyway.

Exactly - Mike said it best.
Looking at past seasons is beneficial for perspective. But this season's numbers - eight straight losses and two consecutive sweeps - make clear that the Sox don't want to face the AL best Angels in a five-game series (on the road, no less). True, the Sox may have made some key additions (and dropped some overdue dead weight) but the Angels have, as Steve points out, been gearing for October for weeks now. Winning the division is a must if the Sox want to repeat.

I think that this year having the division and best record is more important then normal, because the strongest teams, other then the Sox, are the Rays and the Angels. If the Sox win both, then they have home field through out. Additionally they would avoid the Angels until the second round by which time the Angles would be making their second and possibly third cross country trip. No matter how much you rest at the end of the season, and the angels will be resting as they have almost clinched, 3 times across the country is a grind.

Good logic, but if the Sox win the Wild Card they'll face the Angels in a 1st-round 5-game series, which the Angels would likely win. The Sox stand a much better chance of beating LA if they play them in a 7-game 2nd round series. Yes, they've been killed by LA in the regular season and then killed LA in the postseason lately, but this is not the same Angels team. They are stacked and ready to roll in the playoffs. The Sox will have to win the AL East, face Chicago or Minnesota in the 1st round, and face LA in a longer 2nd round series to have a good shot at making it to the World Series this year.

Hey Tony, Welcome to the Globe! I look forward to more of your mighty pen and squeaky voice in the coming months.

I do agree, resting your regulars and setting your rotation for October is important. However, this is something the manager can do in the final week of the season, not the whole month! Francona is quite good at picking the right spots to give his horses the rest they need as the season progresses. I don't think they have to go overboard in getting them more rest down the stretch.

I'm not ready to concede the division to the Deviled Eggs just yet. Home field advantage means a lot in the post-season, especially for a team that's struggled on the road all year. We'll see how things shake out, but I'd rather see Game 1 of each series at Friendly Fenway.

I've gotta agree with Mazz here--Steve, Mike, and Wake make good points about overall home field advantage and avoiding the Angels, but I think the Sox are going to go much farther in the playoffs if they get their team rested and ready once a spot is well within their grasp. Although there's a chance the Rays could knock L.A. off, does anyone really think the Sox won't have to go through the Angels at some point? Avoiding them in the first round only postpones the inevitable. And as big as the home/road splits have been this year, I just don't see that as a big difference in the playoffs. The playoff success of wild card teams, not to mention the 83-win 2006 Cardinals, suggests that home field advantage is a bit overrated once you've determined the cream of the crop.

As for CB's point ... comparing a division title to a World Series one? What? Sure, the '07 team celebrated the division more than the playoff spot, but that's because the division title was still in play when they clinched a playoff spot. And neither compared with the World Series celebration, as entertaining as Papelbon's original dance was. You don't get a ring for winning your division.

Mr. Massarotti,
Your point should, although obvious isn't completely, well taken. Maybe should have emphasized the uncertainty in the calculation of home field versus less tired. The Sox home field advantage is, during the regular seasons, the best in baseball. But it is only one game of a playoff series: 20% of the five game and 14% of the seven game series. The tired is oft offset by adrenaline. So what is the net?

I don't know, but I am very worried about Lester's innings, another Matsuzaka "wall," a Lowell or Youkilis or Varitek wilt. Further, I would rather face the Angels in a five game series than and seven game series. They may just be a better team than us right now, but we have a better ace -- who would be pitching the fifth game.

You hit the nail on the head Mazz. Pay no heed to these bloviating gasbags.

You're forgetting that the Angels are much better than in past years. We'd be better off playing the Central champ first and letting TB and LAA beat each other up.

We need to win the division.

You're forgetting that the Angels are much better than in past years. We'd be better off playing the Central champ first and letting TB and LAA beat each other up.

We need to win the division.

Nice points in the story; however forget the Twins, because the Red Hot Jays are 8 games back, and we still have seven games left to play with them. My focus is to still be at least 7 games ahead of them before the four game series starts this week, and at least 6 games up from them when the team goes to Toronto for three more games next week. The Sox have to push and play to win every game until they see how they stand after the next seven games. I'm not even thinking about the playoffs yet, and I certainly hope that Francona and the team are not either.

#5CB are you serious??? go take a handful of meds and take a nap

Tony pointed out the biggest hairbinger in his own article. The divsion may be "decided by the middle of next week". Go all out against the Rays, see where we stand and THEN determine how to set the rotation. It certainly makes sense to go for homefield. The Angels are much stronger than their teams of '04 & '07. In '04, the year the Red Sox won the wild card and traveled to Anaheim, the Angels went down to the wire with A's and couldn't setup their rotation, the Sox clinched the wild card and could. Last year Boston had homefield offsetting the Angels being able to setup. We want homefield.

Mazz, I disagree for other reasons. The division is not the focus, but rather the inevitable outcome of playing good baseball, which is the focus. The Sox don't need to win the division because it's important to win the division. They need to win the division because it's important that they continue to play well and get wins.

CB you are an idiot

Much as I hate to say it, Mazz is right. Steve, you're a buffoon.
Priority #1 is getting to the playoffs. Priority #1a is getting there healthy. The Sox win the WS in 04 as a WC, the Rockies made it to the Series last year as a WC. The Angels won it a few years back asa WC. Division titles mean nothing, getting there and being healthy and rested are the most important things.

Tony:
I agree with your basic point that preparing for the post season is more important that extending for the division title. But there are still 20 games left to play. The best way to get Youkilis and Lowell back into the flow and prepare the pitching staff is to play well. Playing well could very well help them "leap frog" the Rays. If there were only 5 games left I would rather they prepare for the post season, division title be damned. But it's too early, just continue to play your best ball and see what come of it.

Great points Mazz...totally logical.....especially Dice - K...we all know he pitches better when he is well ( 6 days ) rested & lester has pitched his most innings this yr.....so if one can set aside the NY thing & keep the eye on the prize, its all about WS championships...not about how many division banners u have....everyones an xpert ...don't ya know

We need Beckett rested, he's going to have to play quarterback for the Pats. Get well soon Tom!

I'm not here to kiss anyone's behind, but Mazz is 100% right on - once you know you're going to be in the playoffs it behooves you to get there in the very best shape possible. If pitching is 75% of baseball - it's 80 - 90% of Playoff Baseball - get your house in order is priority 1. So Steve, get back down in your parents basement and continue listening to nitwit radio until further instructed.

Mazz,

Interesting food for thought. I think the Sox are going to keep doing what they have been doing up through next week's Rays series in Tampa. Hopefully by then we'll know if winning the A.L. East is feasible, and whether the best record in the A.L. is feasible.

By the end of next week, they can start shuffling pitchers as needed to line them up for the near-inevitable playoff run.

CB, are you out of your mind?! A division title more important than a WS title?!? Next you'll be telling us how important it is to spend "more days in first place...."
Your comparison of the playoff-spot and division-title celebrations is meaningless, since both were DWARFED by the World Series celebration.
At this level, the World Series is the ONLY thing that matters; anything less is wait-til-next-year....

Following Mike's point, you need to consider that the first round is a 5 game series. I think we stand a much better chance of beating the Angels in a 7 game series rather than a 5 game series. This would make facing Chicago in the first round very important.

Wow

These comments makee Mazz look like a genius. Read the comment by CB again. By this logic, The Patriots had a succesful season last year. Does anybody think this true ?. The day the Red Sox clinch the a playoff spot then they should rest their players. Remember the ultimate goal

The Sox DON'T have the wild card spot firmly in their grasp right now. Until they do, this discussion is moot. Letting up now is the worst thing the Sox could do.

The Red Sox have a 6.5 game WC lead, aside from the Angels division lead that is the largest lead in each of the div/WC races in baseball... To say that dont have it firmy in their grasp is crazy.

Tony, you're absolutely right and I'm sure the Sox management agrees. The first priority is winning the world series. Division title would be nice, home field is an advantage but neither will matter if the team is worn out.
Have you got to the point where you don't read the fan comments yet? I'm amazed at some of these idiots. You seem to have a few enemies out there who will criticize anything you write.
Keep up the good work.

Nobody here is thinking about the importance of home field advantage in a potential ALCS between the Rays and Red Sox??? Do you really want to play in St. Pete a Game 7???? Until the Red Sox prove they can win ONE game in Florida, they better go all out for the division title.

Tony, please read and heed what Ramsey76 (Ltr #44) just said. Division and AL regular season supremacy is paramount when determining which team has the best chance of making a run through the league championships. Clinching the division, and, if possible, the AL best regular season record, should be the happening that triggers a rest for the starters until the playoff game kickoffs. Oops, that's football talk, but then, hasn't the strategy worked for the Pats in this decade? And speaking of the Pats, lets pray that Matt has listened well to and watched carefully the Brady gang in it's onfield and lockeroom teachings over the past 4 years.
1960PatsFan

Since we have 3 pictures, Beckett, Dice K or Lester who could start the 1st series the Sox have until the final series with the Yankees to set up their pitching rotation. Let's wait until we have at least made the wildcard before thinking about letting up against anyone. However, a big advantage not playing the Angels 1st rund.

Mazz, I hope you write these things just to be controversial not because you are an idiot.

Following up on dorf's (#49) comments. Also by playing Chicago (or Minny) saves you from a little travel.

If the Angels are the deeper and more talented team as so many of you claim, then it would actually make sense to play them in the ALDS, rather than the ALCS. The longer the series is the less likely luck is to play a role. IF the Angels are the better team, then the Red Sox would have to be lucky to win. A seven game series provides more chances for the better team to prevail. At the end of the day, you have to put your own team in the best position to win, regardless of the opponent. If that means resting people, then so be it.

Great idea, lets stop all this winning, this good play, the momentum and just start resting for ther playoffs so we can all be good and rusty. Sounds like you have played on lots of teams....this is definately how they like to operate - when theYankess shut it down....how did that work out for them anyway?

It seems that nobody remembers. The American League has HOME FIELD because they won the All-star game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Since when did Mazz become Mike Felger?

Ummmmmmmmm Mr. Massarottit, what exactly were you smoking when you wrote this article anyways? Listen, i'll make this easy so even you can understand it ok...winning is everyhting, you NEVER every pick and choose. You play your best and play to WIn every game. Once you start getting all fuzzy (as your article hinged on) your done for. Your so full of all your "hypotheticle situations" that you forgot one important fact . Having the home field advantage in a playoo like this is HUGE..let me repeat Tommy Boy....HUUUUUUUUUge....

John (Santa Fe)

I love post 20.

In the same paragraph he accuses Red Sox fans of being short-sighted and arrogant, then backs it up by pointing out the the Jays are the hot team "right now".

The Blue Jays have won eight of their last 10. The Red Sox have won seven of their last ten. So over the past week and a half they've gained a game on the Red Sox.

If they keep gaining on the Sox at that rate they'll catch them by mid-November.

As for the "arrogant' business, the only way the Blue Jays can use their seven games left to make up any significant ground on the Red Sox is to win at least six of those contests. Assuming that is really arrogant.

I think the bigger issue here is, if the Sox 'secure' the Wild Card, they will surely meet the Angels in the first round. The Sox have not done so well against the Angels this year. So it is best to make another team (Rays ?) meet the Angels.

Here is the bottom line: if you asked Terry Francona, he would tell you that winning each game, day to day, is all that matters. If the Sox start changing things and resting people, not only do they compromise their chance for the division, but they lose an element of rhythm and consistency that has carried them since early August. You need to ask if the Red Sox have a far better chance of winning the world series if they win the division than if they lose it. If the answer is yes, and I believe it is, then the Sox are better served trying to win every game.

As I implied earlier, the arrogance and short sightedness of Red Sox fans is remarkable. The Jays are currently the hottest team in the AL. They are 8 games behind the Red Sox. The Red Sox have 7 games remaining against the Jays as well as the 6 games against the Rays. Forget about the Jays at your peril

I love post 20.

In the same paragraph he accuses Red Sox fans of being short-sighted and arrogant, then backs it up by pointing out the the Jays are the hot team "right now".

The Blue Jays have won eight of their last 10. The Red Sox have won seven of their last ten. So over the past week and a half they've gained a game on the Red Sox.

If they keep gaining on the Sox at that rate they'll catch them by mid-November.

As for the "arrogant' business, the only way the Blue Jays can use their seven games left to make up any significant ground on the Red Sox is to win at least six of those contests. Assuming that is really arrogant.

//Forget about the Jays at your peril//

if you believe the Red Sox are "forgetting" about ANY opponent, you're clueless.

Sox FANS are not the Red Sox.

Tony,

I think you left your brain back at the herald.

For those of you who keep harping on the Sox record against the Angels this year-

last year the Skanks swept the season series from the Indians.

what did that get them in the playoffs?

Paul is accurately correct with his insight. If the Sox don't focus to win every game, the Jays could be 2-4 games back before you know it with a three game series play in Toronto looming. The key is to at least make the playoffs, and the only team that has a legitmate chance to upend us are the Blue Jays. I told my brother last night that if we were to lose 2 or 3 of these games against the Rays early this week, I would still be happy as long as the White Sox win their series with the Jays; however, if the Jays were to win the series, we could be faced with a 4 game series with a 5-6 game lead and against a very hot and focused team. In other words, the Bosox have an awful lot of work left to do before we start securing a playoff spot. These next 7 games will be intense games that need to be won.

Dear Mr. Paul Martin,

Your arrogance and short-sightedness is baffling.

As I stated earlier, the Jays would realistically have to win at least 6 of their games against the Red Sox to have any chance of making up an eight game deficit.

No team has ever come back from an 8 game hole this late in the season.

But you assume it will happen, that's arrogant.

And you do so because of an eight game period, that's short-sighted.

And you ignore what the Red Sox have do over the same period. That's arrogant over the short term.

You ignore the fact that the Red Sox will play 14 of their remaining 20 games at home, where they are a .716 team.

You also ignore the fact that the Red Sox have been the best team in baseball since August 1st. And did that without significant contributions from Josh Beckett, or Mike Lowell. Both players who have since returned.

Here's the simple truth. If the Red Sox go 10-10 the rest of the way, the Blue Jays would have to go 18-2 just to tie them.

It's not arrogant to assume that a team in the Red Sox situation would play .500 ball the rest of the season.

But it is extremely arrogant to expect any team to play .900 ball.

It's not arrogant to count the Blue Jays out of the race.

It's realistic.

Haven't messrs Beckett, Lowell,Yook and Drew ( Lugo -Casey too if that matters) just had an august vacation that would make mannys aug days off look like comp time.

Sox need to ride hot aces Beckett Lester and Dicek INTO PLAYOFFS) with home field advantage . It seems to matter to hear Sweet Caroline in the eighth inning.

A little long-winded, but I think you made your point. Don't secure a division title or a best W-L in the AL at the expense of having your team ready for the playoffs. In this case, what makes doing that (resting your starters) easier is that right now the Sox not only have a good bench, but have been winning with the bench as starters when the likes of Youk, Lowell, Drew, Ortiz, Lugo, Beckett, and others have missed games. In fact, maintaining the momentum of the past 5 weeks or so, since Manny left, might be easier if Francona keeps substituting freely.

Haven't messrs Beckett, Lowell,Yook and Drew ( Lugo -Casey too if that matters) just had an august vacation that would make mannys aug days off look like comp time.

Sox need to ride hot aces Beckett Lester and Dicek INTO PLAYOFFS) with home field advantage . It seems to matter to hear Sweet Caroline in the eighth inning.

Mazz, you are a loser now working for a loser newspaper

Wait, the Herald is a better paper? Nice post Ernie...CLOWN OF THE DAY

CB (#5), you are a buffoon.

That's really all I have to say.

So Mazz....when are you going back to the Boston Herald?

A thought from LA LA land. The Angels may have the division won but I know so many of us Halo fans fear the Red Sox. I don't care if Manny is playing down the 5 freeway, any lineup that includes an Ortiz, Pedroia, Youklis and a healthy Josh Beckett will be hard to beat! That said, to win the American League pennant you must beat the best. We'll see you 'Sox fans in October.

I suppose resting key players is not exactly throwing a game, but I believe the integrity of the sport requires making every effort to win every game. I also believe the home field advantage is important to the Sox even though they have been better on the road of late. It is a fine line between giving players a needed rest and letting them get stale. Let's take it a game at a time and try to win very day.

As an adult I understand the concept put forth in the article by Mazz, but what does it teach a twelve year old about competition, trying your best to be the best. Only going half speed is Ok if you want to finish in second place.

Ray from NY

I do not claim to know the inner working of the Redsox brass and what they think but I do not buy into this kind of thinking and do not believe they do either. The Yankees won all of their World Series by winning the division. Yes the Sox won in 2004 by getting in on the wild card but they had to do it on a miracle. Could it have been easier if they had home field advantage? I do not know that either but when we get to the point where we just accept getting in then I think you lose a competitive edge. This is shameful to sugest that the Sox should let the Rays win the division as long as our pitching rotation is set up. Remember the pride everyone had last year when the Sox did win the division. I went to see the Sox last September in Tampa when the division was still in doubt and when the game was over as we were filing out they had the Yankee game on a big screen on the way out and about 500 Sox fans stopped to see the outcome. Oddly enough the Yankees blew a lead and lost the game and the place went wild. Everbody was screaming and cheering. It was great. We knew the Sox were going to the playoffs but we wanted that division title and rightly so. Mr Massarotti I think you need to rethink your position because I suggest you can win your division and also be successful in post season.

Mazz,
You start out correctly noting this is "fuzzy" math, but then you set up a fairly stark contrast between a "title" and a "championship." As a number of posters have noted (with more clarity, logic and precision then you offer), the question is really, what's the best strategy to win the championship? You need to balance a number of factors, as others have, and (if you are the FO and manager) make the decisions about whom to play, whom to rest, and whom to bring up based on the changing scenarios. I agree with many others that the biggest factor is the opposition, and that having to face the Angels in the first round in Anaheim (er, Greater Los Angeles) would be much, much more difficult than facing them in the second round at home. The historical comparisons don’t hold up—they’re too different. One very big difference: speed, and I ain’t talking on the base paths. The new ban and testing of amphetamines has clearly taken a toll on players on the road, as many predicted it would. Of course, because of this, if it starts to look iffy that the Sox can take the division with the best record, then certainly it makes sense to rest some guys. And make sure they have plenty of Jolt.

Ray,

No offense, this isn't about teaching children. The Boston Red Sox are a business and the objective of the business is to make money. In this case, to make the most money is to win the World Series. If that means resting players, so be it.

Leave the teaching of children to um...I don't know...uuuummmm...how about the PARENTS???

I hate it when we look at history that covers 4-5 years. Yes, they swept the Angels twice back in 2004 & 2007! The Angels are not the same team, and I would think there is an advantage to having home field to start the series against them, so the division title is important. To echo someone else, it would also be easier not traveling across the country too. Thirdly, maybe the Angels get knocked out by the Rays and we don't even have to face them.
I don't see why they can't get both, catch the Rays, play good ball over the next 10 days and then sit the regs over the last week.

Anyone wondering how important home field is to the Red Sox might want to take a look at how we have done in the playoffs since 2004 when we've had it.

Short answer: we've won every playoff series in which we had it.

Saying that winning the division is important in and of itself is wrong. But it is hugely relevant to our chances of accomplishing the ultimate goal: winning it all again.

Having said all that, I find the timing of this article really odd. Of course we're going all out until everything is settled or until the last weekend of the season.

I just have a tough time believing that the players and fans would rather rest their way into LA, rather than jump at the opportunity to win the East and make the WS run go through Fenway. Winning the division is a must.

Tony,you must just be looking for comtroversy,cause anyone knows we want it all.Besides,let the Rays have The Angels.We want home field all the way.I'm sure the Sox players feel that way.....rest can hurt and cause all kinds of concern.........the biggest problems have been addressed,getting rid of problems........when an well oiled engine is purring,leave it alone

You're right Tony. The most important goal for Francona should be to set the rotation up so that Beckett pitches in game one. The Sox had home field advantage last year against the Indians and lost it after losing game two. The difference in the series was that Beckett started two games. If he didn't pitch game one, he may not have gotten another chance. The other starters give us a good chance of winning every game, but Beckett is the key.

Francona apparently was given different instructions for this Tampa series. He was playing for keeps tonight.

it comes down to one thing. would i feel more comfortable playing the angels away in the first round...or the white sox at home? while we have a vastly different roster from the one taking merciless beatings in june and july from anaheim, i'd still rather play a team at home that we've recently demoralized both at fenway and on the road. ozzie guillen has done everything but ask pedroia out on a date...
i've had enough of this "tampa bay is for real" bull*(&#" I'm ready to put them where they belong. Next to Toronto in the loss column.

Its tough enough to go back2back much less to have to do it with more of your games on the road! I say play hard but smart over the next 3 weeks and hope for the best!

You all talk as if the Red Sox can't catch the Angels for the best overall record. The Sox are a mere 2 games out of that race too, and if, as most of you say, the Angels start resting everyone and getting ready for post season then there isn't any reason to think the Sox won't end up with the best record and home field throughout.