Extra innings for Red Sox starting pitchers
This October, unlike last, five innings will be woefully insufficient. The blueprint is altogether different. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has far more depth in his starting rotation than he does in his relief corps, which last night consisted of one:
Jonathan Papelbon.
This is all presumptuous, of course, though in the wake of last night's 3-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park, the Red Sox are now within a half-game of first place in the American League East and lead the wild-card race by a full seven games. Boston's magic number is 13. The Sox are 23-10 since trading Excedrin-strength headache No. 24, and the Sox are now a mere two games behind the Los Angeles Angels for the best record in baseball.
Once again, the postseason beckons.
If and when the Red Sox get there, Francona will do so with a team markedly different from the one that swept the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series. While that Sox team relied heavily on the back of its bullpen, this one depends greatly on the front of its starting rotation. Never was that more evident than last night, when Francona opted to let starter Jon Lester pitch into the eighth inning despite having thrown 106 pitches through seven.
There was no bridge to Papelbon in this game.
The Red Sox didn't need one and clearly didn't want one.
"He looks like he's built to give a lot of innings," Francona said when asked of his decision to ride the 6-foot-2-inch, 24-year-old Lester. "He's a big strong kid and he looks like he's getting stronger. The ball's coming out of his hand the best it has all year."
Given that Lester's fastball touched 96 mph in the first inning of this game, who are we to argue?
It's time to stop calling Lester a kid. On the mound, he's a grown man now.
There was a time last season when the Red Sox needed no more than six innings from their starter because of the strength of their bullpen; by the postseason, the number actually had dropped closer to five. In the Sox' 10 postseason games last October not started by Josh Beckett, their starters worked just a combined 54 innings, an average of roughly 5 1/3 innings per start. In those 10 games, a Sox starter made it through the sixth inning only twice.
Both times, that man was Curt Schilling.
Somewhat incredibly, the Sox went 7-3 in those contests, defying one of the longstanding tenets of baseball: the starting pitcher sets the tone.
This year, things have been much different. Last night, in the seventh inning of a tightly contested affair with obvious playoff implications, Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson were throwing in the Red Sox bullpen. By the eighth, Okajima was alongside Papelbon. Lester took the mound for his final inning with dangerous lefthanded hitter Carlos Pena due to bat fourth, and it essentially was then that Francona decided he would bypass all other options and go directly to his closer.
Said Francona, "As long as [Lester] was still throwing the ball well, we really wanted him to get to Pena."
Pena ended up hitting a two-out, ground-rule double to put runners at second and third with two outs -- he had been 0 for 3 with a strikeout against Lester before that at-bat -- but that's missing the point, which is this: Francona stayed with Lester (.223 vs. lefties) over the fresher Okajima (.194 against lefties) to face Pena, who is hitting .196 against southpaws. The manager seemed to act as if he trusted no one in his bullpen other than Papelbon, which is understandable given some of the problems Sox relievers had earlier in the year.
Clearly, no matter how much the Sox bullpen has improved as the season has progressed, some of the scars have not fully healed. As is usually the case, those wounds get revealed when the team is under stress -- in this case a close, late-season game against a division leader.
Of course, there were other factors at play here -- aren't there always? -- not the least of which is that Daisuke Matsuzaka is due to pitch tonight. Of the 34 AL pitchers with 10 or more wins, Matsuzaka ranks 32d in innings per start. (Only Scott Kazmir and John Danks have averaged fewer, Danks by a whisker.) All of this makes Matsuzaka's record (16-2) even more extraordinary, suggesting the Sox bullpen has performed far better for him than anyone else. (Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka have received virtually identical run support, ranking a respective sixth, seventh, and eighth in the league among the 45 starters with at least 140 innings.)
The point? Part of the beauty of having Lester precede Matsuzaka in the rotation is that Francona can rest his bullpen for the inevitable support required behind Dice-K. That is not likely to change in October -- and again, it can't -- because the Red Sox don't have the kind of bullpen depth that allowed them to be successful last postseason. The greatest sacrifice Francona might have made last night was using Papelbon on a second consecutive day and allowing him to go more than one inning, which at least raises the question about the closer's availability tonight. (Papelbon has pitched on three consecutive days on a pair of occasions this season, but it's hard to imagine Francona allowing him to go more than one inning tonight.)
For all of the second-guessing and criticism that comes with occupying the perpetually hot seat in the home manager's office at Fenway Park, know this about Francona and pitching coach John Farrell: they are extremely organized and prepared. Francona entered last night's game knowing which matchups he wanted, particularly in the sixth and seventh innings, where the Sox have been most vulnerable this season. Entering tonight, the Sox have outscored their opponents by a noteworthy percentage in all but two innings this year: the sixth and the seventh. (In those innings, opponents have essentially played the Sox even.) As general manager Theo Epstein long ago pointed out, those are frequently the innings when leads change and games are decided because modern pitching staffs are most vulnerable in the middle.
In the case of the 2008 Red Sox, who have clearly distinguished themselves as a very good team and a championship contender, that is especially true. A year ago, Francona might have been content to pull his starter after six innings of a meaningful game because he had great bullpen depth. Certainly, with his starter having exceeded 100 pitches, he would have asked no more than seven. Yet there was Jon Lester last night, coming out for the eighth in an age when the average big league pitcher is fortunate to pitch five innings per start. And there was Papelbon, recording four outs in an age when closers usually are limited to one inning of work.
Kind of tells you something, doesn't it?
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imagine, a writer that still writes (opposed to going on ESPN game shows all the time). Mazz, another great contribution after a big night at the Fens.
With the wild card sewed up, you can't help but look ahead to October. Francona showed how he will play it, and you are right, starters will be key, lots of strategy, aggressiveness and rallies with guys grinding one through nine.
With all the moves and newcomers lately I thought the Sox would have a tough time on thier hands come setting a playoff rotation. But once again, it seems they already have it figured out, by telling Bownden and Bucholz to shut it down. Lugo won't be back for the playoffs either. The only drama will be Aardsma or Timlin as the 25th guy (my bet is they give the final swan song to Timlin... he plays good fork on the bullpen fence).
Check it out, hard to believe but the 25-man roster is set:
Starting ten: Drew, RF, Pedroia, 2b, Ortiz, DH, Youk, 1b, Bay, Lf, Lowell, 3b, Lowrie ss, Tek, C, Crisp/Ellsbury CF.
Bench: Casey, Kotsay, Cora and Cash (sounds like a law firm).
Starters: Beckett, Lester, Dice K, Byrd (I know... but I'm guessing Wakefield's flexibility will be of greater use as a long man, or one hit knuckler in the pen... this is the toughest choice Theo and Tito will have to make).
Bullpen: Paps, Delcarmen, Masterson, Oki, Wakefield, Lopez and Timlin.
Pretty set after all the juggling. Have we ever seen a playoff contender that never once used its best starting nine during the year? This will be the first from the way it looks.
Great analysis Tony. Glad to see that on this site.
You've missed the point, Tony. The front office has again failed to "Fix the Bullpen", but this time it could be exposed as there are large questions regarding how the starters will fare in the playoff spotlight. Beckett is not the same as he was last year and I won't rest easy with Lester, Matsuzaka, and Byrd backing him up in the rotation. They are not proven big game pitchers. They just aren't. How can you possibly bridge to Papelbon with the duct tape they have in place now? Do they hope Okajima and either Masterson or Delcarmen can come through consistently?
nice job MAZZ!!!
Tony, great story. But....
I'm looking for one important fact. How many innings does Lester on his arm this year?
I am beginning to get a little worried about possible long term damage to his arm.
Franconona saying "He looks like he's built to give a lot of innings" is close to being irresponsible.
Sounds a lot like what Dusty Baker used to say regarding Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Remember those guys.
Yikes.
Mazz has been providing a superior read for many, many years in the Herald prior to coming over to the globe. His Sunday "Covering the Bases" column has been the very best Red Sox read during this entire golden era ('03 to present - correlating with the sellout streak precisely).
His insights and in depth analysis are outstanding, whether or not you agree precisely with his positions. A good discussion essentially always follows his work as he hits upon topics that are both timely and truly important to the ballclub.
Readers of the Globe will come to find his work invaluable, and to have him now during this "stretch run" is akin to us readers picking up a Kotsay or Byrd before the deadline. Except his stuff is more Sabathia-like than Byrd-like when compared to his journalistic peers.
I hope the Globe allocates space to him each Sunday to continue "Covering all the Bases". Keep up the good work, Tony. We'll be here to read every word.
Hey Bob,
Exactly who has "proven big game pitchers"? Does anyone other than the Sox have one? Buerhle? Nah. Lackey? Maybe. The Sox staff is just as good as anyone else's probably better. And everyone has issues in the bullpen...
The more I see of him the more I think this is the Hideki Okajima we thought we were getting when we included him in the Dice K. deal. I think he may have fooled some hitters last year. But, he's really not that good unfortunately.
As for Dice K. I'm sure there are those "FAN's" (yar, that's u Japan!), who just look at his record and are saying, "See how Great he is!". I say, for that kind of dough I expected more!
btw; Bay is good but he is no Manny. On the other hand, Yuke and Pedy are making up for it big time!
Go Sox.
Gee, that's an interesting bit on Tito's running Lester, before DK in the rotation. Thanks, for that!
Great job Mazz. Tremendous analysis.
I, too, am a little concerned about Jon Lester wearing down a bit as the month of September moves along. Lester has been so consistent this season, and I know I speak for so many fans when I say I am truly inspired by his strength and determination. Yes, our bullpen is not as reliable as our '07 gang, but I personally would like to see Masterson get some more time on the mound. He seems to keep his cool under pressure, and I prefer him over MDC any day of the week. I still have high hopes for Manny D., but I am always a nervous wreck when he comes on to pitch! Great read, Mr. Mazz, by the way. Your insight is refreshing! Let's go get those Rays again tonight! GO SOX!
See, this is where I get a little confused when all I hear about is how Red Sox fans are smart fans that know what they are talking about. Look at Okajima's numbers, both monthly and in aggregate. I think it's a lot to ask a soft throwing reliever to repeat those numbers from last year, and while he isn't as good as last year, I think he's far from as bad as you are making him out to be. And really, how many relievers in baseball are "as good" as he was last year? Good luck finding one.
And yes, of course those Japanese fans don't know squat. I'd take him over Zito and Zambrano, just to name a couple of high priced guys off the top of my head...so your complaint and ignorant assumption are unoriginal and not wholly backed by much information. Why would you even expect Bay to be Manny?
Lester got a nice rest around the All Star break which is clearly helping to keep him strong. I would like to see both him and Dice K. get some extra days between starts down the stretch. Perhaps the "Rotund One" can help us out down the stretch with some spot starts.
to the skeptics - Sorry, but Lester became a big-time pitcher in the WS last year, and Dice-K overcame his demons from the ALCS and pitched pretty servicably, too. Byrd beat the Yanks and the Sox in the playoffs. Beckett is the standard against which others are measured.
Sounds like a rotation to me.
Full disclosure - I am not a pink-hat booster. I've been watching long enough to have a real opinion.
I'd definitely not want to face that rotation in the playoffs. My only problem with the bullpen is Mike Timlin, its good to be nostalgic and remember all he's done, but he's lost it. Just pray he doesn't face Giambi in the playoffs. As for Lester, I'd give him some rest down the stretch to be safe. But comparing him to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior has got to be one of the most ridiculous things I've heard, his delivery is simple, fluid, and doesn't put that much stress on the arm.
Don't look now but here come the Blue Jays, I'm sorry to say the Sox had their chance and couldn't get it done.
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