Can Sox be kings if they're without ace?
What the Red Sox need now in the American League Division Series is what they needed then: a split of the first two games in Anaheim. They then can return to Fenway Park and send Josh Beckett to the mound for Game 3, which is hardly a discouraging prospect.
That is, assuming Beckett can pitch at all.
Should Beckett be backed off again, as he was repeatedly with the tingling in his right hand last month, look at things this way: It probably won't matter much anyway. The Red Sox might be able to get through a round of the playoffs without Beckett. They might even be able to get through two. But the more time that passes with the Sox operating without arguably the best big-game pitcher in baseball today, the less likely it is that they will repeat as world champions for the first time since 1916.
Do not misunderstand; we are not forecasting doom here. Anything is possible. Maybe Tim Wakefield will assume Beckett's place and get on a roll more precipitous than his free-falling knuckleball. Maybe Paul Byrd will repeatedly demonstrate his wizardry. Maybe Daisuke Matsuzaka will actually pitch through the seventh inning, or even the eighth, and maybe the Sox will remind us that the depth of their starting rotation was the foundation on which this 2008 playoff team was built.
But it all starts with Beckett. It has been that way since Nov. 2005, when the Sox acquired Mike Lowell and Beckett from the Florida Marlins, extending the line of kings that has been the succession of Red Sox aces. From Roger Clemens to Pedro Martinez to Curt Schilling and now Beckett, the Sox have had a historic run of front-end starters. Among that group, with the possible exception of Schilling, no one has turned October into his personal showcase quite like the ace the Sox have now.
So the question must be asked: What will happen if he can't pitch?
"Things happen and you deal with them," Sox manager Terry Francona said last night when asked about Beckett's most recent setback, a strained oblique muscle suffered Friday that will push Beckett back to Game 3, at least. "If you deal with them well enough, you handle it. If you don't you go home."
One thing about Francona: It is at times like this when he is at his very best, the true leader of the uniformed Red Sox. He is not afraid to lose. Francona knows that baseball is often a game of attrition, that it tests your endurance, toughness, and depth. If you are brittle enough that one injury can derail your entire season, you probably didn't deserve to win anyway. Most always, the manager of these Red Sox seems capable of living with the outcome.
So, while the Red Sox and their followers might have felt a sharp blow to the midsection at the news of Beckett's latest problem, take solace in the fact that Francona, general manager Theo Epstein, and pitching coach John Farrell experienced that pain days ago. They have since moved on in hopes of finding a solution. Over the weekend, television cameras caught Francona in the dugout with his arm draped around young lefthander Jon Lester, and we can now only wonder about the nature of that conversation.
Here's the thing, kid: Beckett can't go Game 1, so I'm giving you the ball. And you know what? I'm OK with that. In fact, I'm more than OK with it. You've done this team and this organization proud with what you've accomplished this year and what you've already overcome in your life. I'd give the ball to you any day of the week, any time of the year. Your best is good enough for me.
Lester actually seemed to smile with a hint of embarrassment.
The Red Sox have survived this kind of thing before, most notably in Game 1 of the 2004 American League Championship Series, when Curt Schilling all but collapsed on his right ankle. Losses in Games 2 and 3 reaffirmed the notion that the Sox were cooked. What happened next was nothing short of a medical and hardball miracle -- any chance Dr. Bill Morgan can sew Beckett's oblique in place? -- and the Sox somehow rallied to win the next eight games and their first world title in 86 years.
It's worth noting that in Beckett's 27 starts this season, the Red Sox actually had a losing record (13-14). Behind Lester (22-11) and Matsuzaka (23-6), the Sox were a stunning 45-17. Teams like the Brewers would not be in the postseason today were it not for the contributions of their ace -- in Milwaukee's case, CC Sabathia -- but we probably cannot say the same for the Red Sox.
Yet last month, after Beckett was bombed by the Toronto Blue Jays and before the Sox admitted that the pitcher had nerve irritation in his elbow, the team unfailingly stood by its ace. Despite Beckett's difficulties during the regular season, despite his inability to reclaim the magic and momentum of 2007, the Sox continued to say that Beckett was their cornerstone, that they trusted him, that there was not anyone else they would prefer to send to the mound under the most difficult of circumstances.
"He's still our ace, no doubt about it," Farrell said in Baltimore last month. "He's still our No. 1 starting pitcher, and that's not to diminish what Daisuke and Jon Lester have done this year, but we still look at Josh as the leader of our pitching staff."
And they still do, whether Beckett can pitch Sunday or not. Anything less would be terribly disingenuous.
It's the leeway a pitcher of his postseason accomplishments has earned. We all know that it is different at this time of year, that certain players rise to the challenge while others shrivel up and wilt. Beckett is clearly one of the former. In Beckett's four postseason starts last season, the Red Sox went 4-0 and won by a combined score of 34-5. He has never been on a team that has lost a postseason series. Now Beckett is slated to go Game 3 instead of Game 1, which is not a disaster as much as it is an unfortunate wrinkle, especially against a team as healthy, deep, and hungry as the Angels.
The Red Sox were similarly disheveled in 2005, when meaningful games at the end of the regular season forced them to start Matt Clement in Game 1 of the playoffs against the White Sox. And while Clement got shelled in Game 1, the far more damning losses came in Games 2 and 3, when the Sox blew games they had chances to win.
As it was, Schilling never got to pitch in that series, which was symbolic if nothing else. Without their ace, the Red Sox were a completely different team. The belief now is that Beckett will pitch
Sunday rather than Wednesday, which places an obvious importance on one of the first two games. If the Red Sox can with either Game 1 or Game 2 behind Lester or Matsuzaka, they will take the field for Game 3 behind Beckett in a series tied at one game apiece.
As for gloomier scenarios, well, those are the ones nobody wants to think about.



The injuries are being overplayed here as well as this perceived large gap between the quality of the Angels and the Red Sox. The fact is, if the Sox cannot go to California and split with their two best starters from this season, then they are not legitimate contenders and Beckett's health and availability for any games after that is a moot point. We've heard about the tremendous depth, the improved defense, the "great-bunch-of-guys" clubhouse vibe, etc. Let's see it in action. I don't like the way the groundwork is being laid for a first round exit by the defending champs, just like I didn't like how it somehow became fine that the Sox lost the division.
"Mr. Dwyer",
Out of curiousity, do you direct demeaning, and sometimes scathing remarks on websites/blogs related to the team you follow? Do you offer "advice" to the reporters who follow your team? Or do you have so much hatred for the Red Sox and everything about them that you cannot see that the team you support (no doubt) has its own issues?
Sir, your act is getting very old.
If Becket pitches well in Game 3, the Sox are not in any particular disadvantage because he will be opposing the Angels #3 in a critical game regardless of the outcome of the prior two games. But if he cannot pitch at all or is done after this series, it is very very unlikely Sox can get to Series.
Don't minimize the fact that the Sox can get a lights out post season performance from Lester as well. He has a World Series victory (clinching game, to boot) under his belt, and his starts this year have me convinced this guy has the goods.
I'll take my chances with Lester.
Josh Beckett, this season, has not been Boston's ace. That has fallen upon the shoulders of Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. In the past, Beckett has been phenominal in the playoffs but that is the past. The game three starter is up for grabs between Tim Wakefield and Paul Byrd if Beckett is not able to go. But no matter how you arraign the rotation, Sox pitching is going to be tough on the Angels' hitters. Does anyone know the status of Colon?
The best pitcher in baseball, arguably ? Oh, my the stretches you sox fans have. What was his W-L this year, WHIP, ERA ? Please, lets talk American League East Ok shortie, just one team Blue Jays--Doc Halliday or the injured wonder AJ Burnett both are ARGUABLY better that the wonder boy with a f......n attitude. Give me a break, he's probably not even the best pitcher on your staff.
i think the red sox have a team that works hard and does their best. no matter what happens in the playoffs, we should support and applaud the way they played the game this year. i can't wait to root for my favorite team, yes i said team.
My fellow Bob is too typical of the Nation these days: spoiled!
5 out of 6 years with a playoff appearance will do that to us....
How dare we even consider that injuries make us vulnerable.
A first round exit to an excellent Angels team would be no disgrace. But hopefully our strong starting pitching will make the difference ...
Rob,
Colon is gone. He had a temper tantrum when told the Sox wanted to get him in shape for bullpen use in the playoffs. He quit, and went home to the Dominican rather than take advantage of the chance to play for a potential champsionship team that invested in his recovery all year. To think of a guy quitting at that stage is simply unfathomable, but yep, it happened.
Hard to believe the Sox came overcome the loss of Drew, Lowell and Bekett in this series. But stranger things have happened. That's why they play 'em right?
My colon is working just fine, I did a cleanse over the weekend.
Colon is all done. He went back to the Dominican Republic when the season ended.
I'm fine with Lester and Daisuke going in GM1 & 2. They were better this year anyway. I am concerned with Wake or Byrd for GM3. The Angels hitters can take those two apart. I don't want to see them at all this series. However, I think Beckett will get pushed back. Oblique's are a crap shoot, but they almost always take a long time to heal.
I thought this was fairly obvious, but apparently it is not. This is Tony Massarotti's blog and comments should be made to him. It is not my blog.
Also, anything other than glowing praise of wildcard jubilation and requests for more dixie cups of kool-aid to sip out of, should not be posted here for fear of upsetting the "real" Red Sox fans. I had thought the Patriots bandwagoneers had this market cornered, but now the new generation of Sox fans wants nothing other than "The Sawx are wicked awesome!" posts rather than honest discussion of strengths and weaknesses.
Agree with the previous post. Beckett has been "ace" in name only. He showed up to Spring Training out of shape (remember the picture on BDD showing his flab?), immediately hurt his back, and has been working through a variety of injuries and ineffectiveness since them. Even in his most recent starts, he's been throwing 92-23, not 95-96. If he can go in Game 3 we'll be fine. If he can't, there's still a chance.
Colon's on the restricted list... so unavailable.
Geez, Dwyer--that's some deep stuff! Maybe you could do a little volunteer work with a Congressional sub-commitee and put those bulging brains of yours to work on bailing out Wall Street.
I thought this was fairly obvious, but apparently it is not. This is Tony Massarotti's blog and comments should be made to him. It is not my blog.
Also, anything other than glowing praise of wildcard jubilation and requests for more dixie cups of kool-aid to sip out of, should not be posted here for fear of upsetting the "real" Red Sox fans. I had thought the Patriots bandwagoneers had this market cornered, but now the new generation of Sox fans wants nothing other than "The Sawx are wicked awesome!" posts rather than honest discussion of strengths and weaknesses.
Are you guys all kidding? Beckett hasn't been an ace all year, why have the expectations changed?
I think the Red Sox are outsmarting all of you. Lester and Dice K have been better than Beckett all year long..... this "injury" pushback was just a smart way to break it to the fans without Beckett losing face and being exposed as the #3 starter.
please..no wakefield!!
Not having Beckett would be a little bit of a hit to the Red Sox but did everyone already forget how well Paul Byrd played in the post season against the Red Sox?? I personally would have no problem running Lester, Matsuzaka, and Byrd. If Wakefeild can figure out how to get his pitch back he could also win some big games. I’m more worried about the middle of the rotation then the starting rotation.
No, Beckett hasn't been the Sox best pitcher this season, but, like Schilling, is known to step up in the playoffs and is probably one of the most dominating post-season pitchers in history. The Sox have some other good starters, but their chances are definitely diminished without Beckett. Hopefully, he'll be good to go in Game 3.
The Red Sox are in real trouble. Our lineup is largely injured and without, nobody has mentioned, Manny Ramirez. It in no way scares the opposition - no disrespect intended to those who have stepped up nicely this year. The Sox do not have offensive fire power to overcome a shaky bullpen and questionable rotation.
Question: What would have happened if Red Sox had beaten Tampa Bay in that Sept. game that Papelbon blew a 9th inning lead as far as who would have won the AL East? If they had, both teams would have finished 96-66 & 9-9 vs. each other. Is there another tie-breaker? Or would they have had a 1-game playoff?
What would be the problem with having Wakefield pitch in this series? As a longtime fan, Wakefield has been indispensible. From the last pitch of 2003, to his 2004 WS game 1 outing, he has been nothing but reliable. When he pitches the soxs know they have to drive in at least 5 runs to win, but wake will keep the other team in check- not dominate- but in check. Lester, Dice-K, Wake or Byrd, we will play with who we have available and find a way to win.
I love the guy, but picturing Wake pitching to Vlad in Fenway will make the entire crowd want to duck for cover.
I'll duck for cover, and I'll be watching on TV!
yankees4ever "arguably the best big-game pitcher in baseball today"...not "arguably the best pitcher in baseball today" are not the same thing, he is arguably the best big-game pitcher because of his postseason stats. Don't get all worked up on a misquote that you made.
How has Wake done against the Angels this year?
Bob Dwyer got one thing right. This perceived LAA talent gap over the Sox is totally overblown. Lester/Daisuke are at least equal to any 1-2 combo LAA can muster. With a healthy Beckett, ...
The lineup isn't 100% and that is a problem for the Sox.
Beck is toast- his conditioning has been suspect since he came to spring training way out of shape. Les and Dice can pitch well but we don't have the bats due to injury.
I think watching Lester pitch probably through the eighth inning and I am guessing they won't even need Papelbon in game 2 (because it isn't anywhere near a save) will finally put Beckett into that scary playoff pitcher. Then a closer game in game 2 where undoubtedly our bullpen is tapped more (but hopefully just Masterson, Delcarmen, Okajima, Papelbon) will get Beckett rev'ed up. And the whole team will know that they aren't pitching game 1 with their ace so they are more on their toes from the get go. I actually think I am more confident now than I have been.
Yeah, please...... No Wakefield.... Had solid '03 but besides that a complete disaster in the playoffs...
It doesn't matter if Becket pitches or not. The Angels owned the Sox in the regular season and they will clean them out quickly in the playoffs.
Yankees4ever,
I guess reading comprehension wasn't taught at your school. (You did attend once in a while, didn't you?)
The columnist wrote, "arguably the best big-game pitcher in baseball today". First of all, arguably implies it's not a no-brainer. More importantly, you (purposely?) omitted the words "big-game" and "today".. Beckett's numbers show his big-game performance is unsurpassed.
Is his "Big Game" performance better than Doc H or AJB? - we don't know. They haven't had any of those starts with the Blue Jays. Come to think of it, we don't even know if Beckett is better in big-game situations than Joba - unless you count the flea bag game in Cleveland last year - and maybe won't know about any Yanks "big game" potential for a while now.
Aint it sweet?
The Original Nation
What about Masterson to start game 3 ?If Beckett can't go I'd rather see him than Byrd or WAKE.
Good move by Tito to put Beckett in the 3rd spot....it is certainly consistent with his recent and ....relevant....performance ...this is not last year ...and "last year" in no way translates to what they should do with the starting rotation in the Div series this year. Josh has not been close to what he was a year ago. Spot Josh 3rd in the rotation and trust what Dice-K and Lester have delivered in 2008.
When will the Globe stop referring to Beckett as the Sox's ace? Based on this season he is their third best starter.
Lester is the Ace of the staff, not Beckett. Dice K is a good No. 2.
If Beckett can pitch the 3rd game fine. The ourcome may not be critical since Lester can pitch the 4th game. etc.
I actually thought Dwyer made some thoughtful comments. I didn't see them as scathing at all. You can be a fan and be critical or even not be a fan and post. What's the big deal?
im not as worried about beckett as much as are relievers. Paps is struggling he can't get anything but the fastball over and who is going to pitch in middle relief. i like masterson and don't think the pressure will be to much for him, but delcarmen, timlin, oki, are all question marks to me. i don't feel confident with any of them and that just puts even more pressure on paps. if the angels get a lead or keep it close in late innings they clearly have the advantage. lester is an ace in the making and is a true big game pitcher, vteck won't let him get outa line, dice-k is a seasoned vet. and will try and take the role of ace if beckett can't come back. i love wakefield but he either gets destroyed or pitches great i would like to go with byrd who has a lot of motivation because he is getting old and hasn't won a ring. that means lester and dice-k come back on short rest, which is common in post season situations. also i am worried about lowell a true clutch hitter and great defensive 3rd basemen but we got a solid 1 through 9 and i think jacoby and lowrie with be rejuvenated with post season play
Interesting observation on the part of King B... Although VERY GOOD at times this past season, Josh Beckett simply has not demonstrated the consistent level of excellence in terms of both pitch location and velocity. Has anyone noticed that over the course of this year, opposing teams have put up numerous "crooked numbers" in single innings? These "mini melt-downs" occurred in excess of what transpired in the '07 season. If one evaluates 2007 as the year Josh should have won the Cy Young Award and compares it to 2008, the inevitable conclusion is that Josh Beckett did not have an "Ace" year.
Beckett, as Tony pointed out, has earned his designation as an ace based on his playoff resume. That can not be argued. I would like him in Game 1, but Lester and Matsuzaka are still a very dangerous 1, 2 for the angels. If the Red Sox split out here I still like our chances
I think Josh Beckett will do fine in game 3 of the play offs and we will go all the way, Josh Beckett is the ace and I have faith in him to pitch in game 3. Josh Beckett is an awesome pitcher.
Any chance the Red Sox kept this injury under raps until the Angels selected the 3-starter schedule for round 1? Seems they would have wanted the 4-man schedule if they knew Beckett might be injured. By the way - where is Bartolo Colon?
Wow a sox fan that is humble I am honored to have seen this post dwyer.
Go Sox - Let's enjoy today and bask in the glow of not only the Yankees missing the playoffs, but also the Mets folding for the second season in a row on the last day of the season. After savoring that for a day, then we can look forward to a winning the Angels series.
Let's also hope that the "real" Manny shows up against the Cubs and strikes out every time up. Or, if he hits the ball that he jogs to 1st. He is a disgraceful human being!!!
don't panic,this was done for a reason,this sets up dice-k for games 2 and 5 away where he pitches much better...beckett will be stronger after a little rest
Does anyone think that Manny will get very nervous and stop hitting knowing that the Red Sox and their cameraphone-toting pursuers are just across town? And as far as Beckett goes, Theo pulled the rabbit out when he got Byrd...a few double pumps, and the Halos are duped. My prediction: Byrd will be an asset as this series unfolds, then moreso in the LCS.
People are speaking like they have some inside information and that they really know what's going on inside the Red Sox organization. This notion that the Red Sox have some ulterior motive with Beckett is the most absurd one I've heard yet. Regardless of whether you're in the camp that believes that they need Beckett to carry them through the playoffs, or the other end of the continuum that believes a true champion can win regardless, you are setting yourself up to have egg on your face. Of course, these type of blowhards usually don't admit it when they're wrong afterwards anyway. Trust in the Red Sox to do as much as they can.
Maz -
Don't you think you're laying it on a little thick, placing Beckett first in a line of kings on the strength of one great season/post season in a Sox uniform? We all have a soft spot for the young gun, to be sure, since he beat the Yanks in '03 - but to be a true ace you need consistency, year after year. Beckett still hasn't shown that.
I'm excited to see Lester in Game 1, though - he was a warhorse this year, throwing harder than any season before. Not as pumped about Dice in Game 2, but as you say we only need a split, and the guy was 18-3 with a sub-3 ERA in the American League - pretty awesome season. Then we hope Beckett can go in Game 3 - it's a big drop-off to Byrd and Wake as everyone else has said.
I'd also say, after watching him in September, I'll be more inclined to agree with your characterization of Beckett's greatness if he turns in another couple of dominant wins in the postseason - but if he's out for this series, and can't do much in the playoffs, I feel like '08 was a lost opportunity for the guy.
Beckett is a gamer, that means, when game 3 comes, oblique willing, you will see the real Beckett. 95-97 with great command. Remember how terrible Shill was in Game 1 of the 04 ALCS, with a bad ankle? When we needed him the most, and the season on the line, he went out and pitched like Shill to win game 6, with 1 ankle. Beckett has earned similar postseason praise like Shilling. Like Shill, he is also a gamer. Expect to see Josh in game 3 ready to dominate. The Angels are going to be tough, but I can bet you they and their fans aren't too thrilled about playing us.
Chad-give Wake a shot. He has proven he can pitch in the big game. As long as I don't see Byrd, I'm happy. Everyone hear seems to forget the regardless of year stats, injury's and setbacks, things drastically change for a player in the playoffs.
Folks who paid attention to Beckett's starts the last 2 months of the season should have noticed that his run support was a mere fraction of what it was in '07. Yet, aside from the terrible start against the 'Jays (injury related), he pitched well down the stretch. Too many folks in Red Sox nation have short memories.
I love the Lester, Dice, Josh combo. exactly how it should be played. face it, we're the underdogs and a split in LA would be great. the pitching will be there, but will the bats? will i make it past 11 o'clock on a school night no less... irish coffees can't start until game time if i'm going to make it.
Angel fans are not worried about the Sox. The Angels are healty this year compared to last year. Vlad finally has some protection in Mark Tex & Tori Hunter & our three man rotation (Lackey, Saunders, & Santana) are as good if not better than any team out there. So I hope your bandwagon fans come to Anaheim for the first two games so we can run you out of there & then take it from you at Fenway. It would be best if you had an early round exit this year so you can catch your Abercrombie & Fitch sale and get those wicked awsome cargo shorts that I swear are sold at Fenway.
Spoken like a true Lakers fan. Sounds like you're dealing with it....
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