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A roster of issues
Lest there be any doubt, Theo Epstein is a shrewd man. He will not tip his hand. During the winter of 2008-09, the Red Sox "have the ability to be selective in free agency" or they "might do something big." They could go in any number of directions. Only Theo knows.
As for the 2008 season, the Red Sox left relatively little room for second-guessing. In the end, the Sox did not blow the American League Championship Series so much as they simply lost to a better team. The strength and depth of Boston's player development system now affords Epstein countless options entering the offseason, during which the obvious priority seems a proven presence in the middle of the lineup.
"The competition is as challenging as it's ever been, if not more so," Epstein said yesterday at Fenway Park, noting the youth and promise of the reigning American League champion Tampa Bay Rays, in particular. "We're not just going into this winter trying to address the 2009 team and that's it. I think the better way to look at it is that we're continuing to evolve as an organization."
So where do the Sox stand?
Using the 25-man roster as an outline, here's a player-by-player look:
PITCHERS
JOSH BECKETT
Contract status: Signed through 2009 ($10.5 million) with club option ($12 million) for 2010.
Prognosis: On Monday, Epstein assured that the only issue with Beckett during the postseason was an ailing oblique, which should heal with roughly six weeks of rest. Beckett is still just 28 and won't be 29 until May 15, so he has plenty left. Assuming health, the option for 2010 is a no-brainer. But at this time next year, we may be wondering about his long-term future in Boston.
PAUL BYRD
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: Acquired by the Sox in August, Byrd served them well. He'll be 38 in December and almost certainly will be elsewhere next season, assuming he decides to pitch at all. Byrd said he makes such decisions only after consulting with his family after every season, but don't expect him back in Boston. For the Sox, he was a classic rental.
MANNY DELCARMEN
Contract status: Under team control through 2012; possibly eligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: Once Justin Masterson joined the bullpen, Delcarmen's performance improved significantly. The Sox entered this season hoping Delcarmen would be their primary set-up man, but he fell back into more of a middle relief role. Given the stock of young arms in the organization, he could be a valuable bargaining chip. Of course, he also could be a valuable member of the bullpen.
JON LESTER
Contract status: Under team control through 2012; ineligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: All things considered, is there a more untouchable player on the Boston roster right now? He's young, durable, tough and talented. Lester, who turns 25 in January, is not eligible for arbitration until after next season, but don't be surprised if the Sox try to lock him up this winter to fix his salary for the next few years. But even without a long-term deal, he's going nowhere.
JAVIER LOPEZ
Contract status: Eligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: As recently as spring training, many of us wondered what the Sox saw in a lefty specialist who couldn't get lefties out. Now we know. Lopez's salary could double from the $840,000 he made this year, but even if he makes $2 million, his salary will place him below the major league average. No reason to do anything silly here. The Sox have deep pockets.
JUSTIN MASTERSON
Contract status: Under team control through 2014; ineligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: The real question concerns his long-term role: starter or reliever? Even the Sox seem unsure at the moment, which means that Masterson's versatility will be of great value to them over the winter. If they acquire a good reliever, he can start. If they acquire a good starter, he can relieve. Either way, the staff is better with him.
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA
Contract status: Signed through 2012 (average of $9 million per season remaining).
Prognosis: When you consider that the cost for pitching is now roughly $1 million per win, he has been worth every penny of the $103.1 million the Sox spent to get him. (Matsuzaka is on pace for 99 wins during the length of his contract.) Over the last two years, only Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, and CC Sabathia have won more games. He's a good middle-of-the-rotation guy.
HIDEKI OKAJIMA
Contract status: Signed through 2009 ($1.75 million.)
Prognosis: As Epstein noted late during the season, Okajima's performance last season probably led to unrealistic expectations in 2008. Is he a dominating set-up man? No. But at $1.75 million, Okajima is one of the better middle relievers and situational set-up men in the game. Like Delcarmen, his performance improved after Masterson took over the eighth inning.
JONATHAN PAPELBON
Contract status: Under team control through 2011; eligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: One of the more dominating closers in the game, Papelbon would love a long-term deal. The question is whether the Sox are comfortable about giving him one. Given the relatively short lifespan of most closers, don't be surprised if the Sox opt to go year-to-year with him in much the same way the Los Angeles Angels have with Francisco Rodriguez.
MIKE TIMLIN
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: Everyone expects Timlin to retire, and his exchanges with teammates and Sox personnel following Sunday's loss only reinforced that. At the end, he clearly wasn't the same pitcher he was when he arrived in Boston prior to the 2003 season. As it was, overall, he had six solid years here. Kudos to you if you ever thought he would be here that long.
TIM WAKEFIELD
Contract status: Sox hold club option for 2009 ($4 million).
Prognosis: Can everyone stop with the overreactions? So Wakefield had a bad outing in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. So what? At $4 million per, Wakefield is still one of the best bargains in baseball. If the Sox bring him back and he can't pitch – which is doubtful – they'll still pay him half of what they paid Curt Schilling this year.
OTHERS
Presumably Schilling will retire. The Sox obviously have some promising but unproven pitching depth to deal (or keep) in the form of Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Daniel Bard, among others. Overall, the pitching staff is in good shape because the Sox have built great depth, which allows Epstein to operate from a position of strength.
POSITIONAL PLAYERS
JASON BAY
Contract status: Signed through 2009 ($7.5 million)
Prognosis: All signs point to the Red Sox exploring a contract option with him during the offseason, though there is also the possibility of a trade here if the Sox opt to take a run at, say, Matt Holliday. At the moment, the preferred option to improve the offense is a free agent (Mark Teixeira), but the Sox need backup plans. In any case, Bay proved that he is a great asset here.
SEAN CASEY
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: A nice addition to the Sox clubhouse during the season, Casey saw Mark Kotsay pass him on the depth chart during the postseason. All indications are that Casey won't be back in 2009, which means the Sox need to find a backup corner infielder, particularly at first base. Of course, if they sign Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis can back up at first.
KEVIN CASH
Contract status: Under team control through 2011; eligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: Unfortunately for Cash, the situation with Jason Varitek has thrust him into a state of flux. If the Sox anticipate a reduced role for Varitek in 2009, Cash may not give them enough offense at the backup catcher position. If Varitek goes, the chances of Cash returning actually seem a little greater. Clearly he can handle Wakefield.
ALEX CORA
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: Cora has lost a step or two in the field, but he still catches everything he gets to and he can still throw. Depending on what happens at shortstop, there is still the possibility he could be back. But if Lowrie and Lugo are both with this team next spring, it seems hard to imagine that the Sox could carry Cora, too.
COCO CRISP
Contract status: Signed through 2009 ($5.75 million) with a club option ($8 million) for 2010.
Prognosis: A year ago at this time, Crisp seemed like a lock to be traded. Instead, he was the starting center fielder for the final games of the ALCS. If the Sox want to trade him now, Crisp's value seems much higher given his play over the final months. The Sox have been rewarded for their patience here. A definite bargaining chip.
J.D. DREW
Contract status: Signed through 2011 ($14 million per season).
Prognosis: We've said it before and we'll say it again: Drew is not a superstar, but when he's on the field, he is fundamentally sound. The Red Sox overpaid for him two years ago, but they have the financial flexibility to absorb the contract without much penalty. Not many other teams could afford Drew at $14 million per, but the Sox can.
JACOBY ELLSBURY
Contract status: Under team control through 2013; ineligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: Two steps forward, one step back. Ellsbury was slumping again when the Sox bumped him from the starting lineup during the postseason. Still, Ellsbury is a dynamic young player whose skills and salary make him affordable to most every club, including the Red Sox. We said this last year, but aren't the odds that he or Crisp will be traded?
MARK KOTSAY
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: Forget the batting average. Kotsay is a solid, sound professional who could help the Sox in number of areas, as he proved during the postseason. His play at first base will only improve his marketability. Kotsay wants to play everyday and the likelihood is that he will end up elsewhere, which means the Sox will have a hole on the bench. Think Trot Nixon can play first?
MIKE LOWELL
Contract status: Signed through 2010 ($12.5 million per season).
Prognosis: The Red Sox seem optimistic that Lowell will return to full health after hip surgery, but there is concern nonetheless. Lowell is a solid player and a true professional, but the Sox seemed reluctant to re-sign him last offseason. If the Sox can sign Teixeira, don't be surprised if they try to trade Lowell – though they may have to eat some money.
JED LOWRIE
Contract status: Under team control through 2014; ineligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: Defensively, we know he can play shortstop everyday. Offensively, we're not entirely sure yet. Lowrie looks like he would make a great utility player – the Sox have considered working him some at first base – but he obviously has far more value as an everyday shortstop. With Cora and Julio Lugo involved, there are lots of moving parts here.
JULIO LUGO
Contract status: Signed through 2010 ($9 million per season) with a vesting option for 2011.
Prognosis: In Boston, the shortstop position will heretofore be known as The Money Pit. Lowrie is a better shortstop and Lugo doesn't seem to have either the defensive skills or versatility to be a particularly good utility man. If the Sox want to trade him, logic suggests they will have to eat at least $10 million of the $18 million remaining on Lugo's contract. The Sox could be stuck here.
DAVID ORTIZ
Contract status: Signed through 2010 ($12.5 million per season) with a club option for 2011 ($12.5 million).
Prognosis: Ortiz obviously suffered through some injuries this year, but we now have to wonder whether he is the same offensive player anymore. Can he still help the Red Sox? Of course. Will he be here in 2009? Almost certainly. But if Ortiz is in fact on the decline, the Red Sox need more thunder in the middle of the lineup. Hence their interest in Teixeira.
DUSTIN PEDROIA
Contract status: Under team control through 2012; ineligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: Pound-for-pound, what we have here is one of the very best players in baseball. Pedroia has no contract leverage at the moment, but don't be surprised if the Sox try to lock him up by buying out his arbitration years. At the same time, don't be surprised if Pedroia takes the Kevin Youkilis route and turns them down unless he gets what he's worth. Which is a lot.
JASON VARITEK
Contract status: Free agent.
Prognosis: Here's a tip: Prepare now for the spin control as this could get nasty. The Sox want him back, but on their terms. Meanwhile, despite the slip in production and Varitek's age -- he'll be 37 in April -- agent Scott Boras is likely to enter negotiations with unrealistic demands. If the Red Sox turn him loose, they need to find a replacement. But where?
KEVIN YOUKILIS
Contract status: Under team control through 2010; eligible for arbitration.
Prognosis: A year ago, the Sox approached Youkilis about a long-term deal and he turned them down because both he and his agent (Joe Bick) felt the club's offer was unfairly low. Then he went out and had an MVP-caliber season. For all the money the Sox have thrown at players like Drew and Lugo, they haven't been quite as forthcoming with their own. Big game of chicken here.
OTHERS
In the last three seasons, the Sox' farm system has produced Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Lowrie, all good players, The only void has been a true power hitter, which the Sox believe they have in someone like first baseman Lars Anderson. This year, in a time split between Single A and Double A, Anderson batted .317 and slugged .517. But if the Sox sign Teixeira, is Anderson trade bait? Or is he a long-term replacement for Ortiz?
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