Sox' five keys to beating the Angels
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- At this stage, just as there is no crying in baseball, there are no surprises, either. They Red Sox and Los Angeles each played 162 games this season. They faced one another nine times. In the past four postseasons, they have met twice.
"They know us real well and we know them real well," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said of the Angels as the teams prepared for tonight's Game 1 of the American League Division Series. "Whoever plays better will win - not going to be a whole lot of secrets."
On paper, Los Angeles should win this series. The Angels won more games this year, have home field advantage, are healthier and deeper. And yet, as always, the human element complicates matters. Over the last five or six seasons, as Cleveland manager Eric Wedge recently noted, the Red Sox have had an uncanny ability to raise their level of play when necessary, explaining why they have two world titles in the previous four seasons and five playoff appearances in the last six.
Can the Sox win this series?
Of course.
Here's how:
5. Maximize Josh Beckett.
If we are to believe what the Red Sox are telling us, Beckett will pitch Game 3 Sunday at Fenway Park. We all know his history in the playoffs. The real cost of moving Beckett back a few days is that Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch twice if the series goes five games, and Matsuzaka's second outing will come at Beckett's expense. Nobody in the world -- or at least North America -- would make that trade.
All of that puts an additional emphasis on the first two games of this series, to be played tonight and Friday; the Red Sox have to win at least one. The Sox have had great success overcoming playoff deficits in recent years -- in 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2007, they won a total of four series after trailing by at least two games -- but such a deficit this year could prove fatal against an LA team that doesn't have many holes.
If the Sox can split the first two games of this series, they have Beckett and Jon Lester lined up to pitch two of the final three games. That would have been the case even if Beckett pitched Game 1.
4. Don't believe the hype on K-Rod.
Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez set a major league record with 62 saves this year, but that can be deceiving. Largely, saves are a product of opportunity. The Angels played more one- or two-run games than anybody in baseball this year (89 total, in which they went 61-28), which is why Rodriguez's save total is so high. Beyond that, his numbers are very much in line with last season, when Manny Ramirez beat him with a stratospheric homer in Game 2 of the ALDS.
Yes, Ramirez is gone, but the point is this: Rodriguez is quite beatable. Rodriguez blew seven saves this year; only Seattle's J.J. Putz and Sox reliever Hideki Okajima had more. Rodriguez generally has pitched quite well against Boston in his career, but he can get himself into trouble with a violent delivery that sometimes leads to control problems.
Without question, Rodriguez had a special year.
But given that Jonathan Papelbon walked just eight batters this year -- Rodriguez walked 34 -- the Red Sox might actually have the better closer.
3. Proceed with caution through dangerous intersection.
As Angels manager Mike Scioscia pointed out yesterday, the difference between these Angels and those of past years is like "night and day." (Original, eh?) The addition of Mark Teixeira has benefited both Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero, thickening the Angels lineup considerably. Anderson has been batting second and Torii Hunter fifth (with Teixeira and Guerrero in between), and Sox pitchers may have to expend a great deal of energy during that part of the Angels lineup.
Here's the good news: With the exception of Teixiera, the meat of the Angels lineup is not particularly patient. If pitched to properly -- as the Sox have done in past postseasons with Anderson and Guerrero -- they can be neutralized. Where the Sox have to be careful is at the bottom of the lineup and with leadoff man Chone Figgins, the table-setters for the Angels' big four. If the Nos. 8, 9, and 1 hitters in the Los Angeles lineup get on base, the Sox may have no choice but to challenge everyone from Anderson to Hunter.
If that happens, fasten your seatbelts. There will be turbulence.
2. Beat the Angels at their own game.
For what the Sox lost in the Manny Ramirez deal, they gained in other areas. Jason Bay is a better all-around player than Ramirez who runs the bases well and aggressively while playing good defense. Jed Lowrie hasn't made an error yet at shortstop. With the exception of David Ortiz, the starters in the Boston lineup generally run the bases well and the Sox have more speed than they have possessed in a long time.
Jacoby Ellsbury could play a huge role in this series because of his ability to generate offense. As colleague Bob Ryan has pointed out, Ellsbury scores an unusually high percentage of the time he gets on. If Ellsbury can make himself a factor in this series -- and that could be a coin flip -- the Sox might be in a position to get meaningful at-bats from Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, who are their best run producers. That is an enormous key to their offense.
If Ellsbury gets completely shut down, the series could be over.
And fast.
1. Lean on starting pitchers.
One of the oldest clichés in baseball is that the starting pitcher sets the tone, but never has this been more important for the Red Sox. During the regular season, at those times their lineup struggled and their bullpen faltered, the Red Sox usually could depend on Lester, Matsuzaka, Beckett and, for that matter, Tim Wakefield. The rotation was the strength of the club and finished with more victories (71) than any team but the Blue Jays (71) and ... the Angels (73).
While Sox starters actually pitched fewer innings this season than last, do not be fooled. In those games he absolutely, positively had to win this year, manager Terry Francona didn't seem to trust anyone in his bullpen other than Papelbon. Francona was more inclined to let his starters go an extra inning than he was to go to a sometimes shaky middle relief and set-up crew, and he may have to do the same now.
Last year, outside of Beckett, Sox starters generally were asked to go no more than five innings because of the strength of the bullpen. That can't happen this year. Sox starters need to at least six innings and, more preferably, seven, which will allow Francona to match up his relievers (other than Papelbon) in the late innings.
Even if Sox starters keep the team in the game for five innings -- this means you, Dice-K -- prematurely turning the game over to the bullpen could be fatal against this Angels lineup and relief corps.
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How did Hideki Okajima blow more than seven saves? Do you mean he gave up more than seven leads? I don't even think he had more than seven save opportunities.
Playoffs are all about heart, determination, guts and grit. Don't know another team in the playoffs that can match the Red Sox in that department...White Sox showed me a lot the last two days and I am picking them to upset the Rays.
Red Sox will beat the Angels...they ALWAYS beat the Angels.
Cubs will falter like they always do, Brewers will fade eventually.
It's Karma...Red Sox/Dodgers World Series, we get to boo the crap out of Manny when he returns to Fenway. The sportswriters will be in heaven with all the material they will get. Torre, Manny, Nomar and Lowe....even Julio Lugo will get an interview as to how it feels to be a castoff from both teams...goodness, it's a Hollywood script.
All true, but nothing more true than on paper, the Angels should win in a romp. This is the inverse of last year, the yang to '07's ying. We are as injured as the Angels were, they have their pitching lined up, while our ace is hurting, and Drew and Lowell, both critical in keeping offensive punch deep through the lineup, are nothing close to ready.
It should be a rout. It should be very much like watching those two frustrating series against the Rays, where both teams' pitchers kept it tied, turned the game over to the bullpens and the Sox lost late. The only way this changes is if the Sox experience and confidence rattles the Angles early. Game 1 has never been more important.
Thanks for some actual analysis, Tony, with hows & whys, and most importantly, things to look for and look forward to. Was getting sick of hearing the same lines about will Beckett be himself, oh no, they got Teixeira & we don't have Manny, etc.
There are no guarantees in October. I do think the Sox have a good shot, however. The key is getting a fast start, and that means tonight's game is the biggest of the series.
If Okajima comes into the game in the eighth inning with the Red Sox up by a run and gives up a run to tie the game, he gets a blown save even though there was no expectation that he would actually pitch the ninth to earn a save in the first place.
To the other poster.....Joe Torre was never part of the red sox as a player or coach.
It will be a good series, probably the best in the DS. If the Sox win, the Sox will have to be the clear favorite to win the AL and then the WS by all the Nah-sayers now.
Just because the Red Sox ALWAYS beat the Angels doesn't mean that will happen this year. Didn't the Yankees ALWAYS beat the Red Sox? How did that work out in 2004?
I'm not saying that the Red Sox will lose, but it wouldn't shock me at all if the Angels beat the Sox. I think the Angels will win in 5 games. I hope I'm wrong about that, but we'll see. The Red Sox starters will have to go long and their bullpen can't give leads and tie games away. Our offense will have to capitalize on its opportunities..
thanks for pointing the ridiculousness of the k-rod save total. is he good? yes. does 62 saves mean he's the best? hardly.
if papelbon had to appear in 70 games for the sox i would be afraid for our postseason chances. that's a lot of close games the angels played.
According to ESPN, Okajima does in fact have 8 BSVs. With that said, I couldn't be more underwhelmed by KRod- the save (like the interception in football) is a grossly overrated statistic. (Personally, I’d rather have Putz, Pap, Joe Nathan on the mound than KRod…)
Regardless, the series is definitely going 5 games.
It's time to let Matsuzaka go the 130, 140 pitches he's comfortable with, if necessary. And let him know that will be an option.
That's the ultimate showdown, d, I'd love to see it.
And yeah, King B, I believe that's how it happened with Okie Dokie. Blowing late inning leads that weren't meant to be save opportunities, like in the 7th or 8th. If memory serves, it was mostly inherited runners, so his stats aren't as screwed up as they should be.
I like Bay as a player, but come on. While Bay may not be quite the potential adventure in the field and can run the bases a little better than a disinterested Manny, don't try to tell me that he is a better player than Manny. He is a better team member right now for this Red Sox team because Manny was such a petulant little child. But, I'd sure prefer to have Manny being the player he could be as compared to Bay. Too bad Manny took that option off the table.
Great analysis, Tony. Thanks, for that.!
Consider that Crisp is a great hedge for a bad night/streak with Ells. These guys can be flipped in the order (i.e. 1->9; 9->1) faster than Obama changes his stance on economics and world events. A lot of times, this seems to get both players rolling. Let's hope...
Okajima had 9 save opportunities this year and blew 8 of them.
Hey guys, hey! I just wanted to say "Go Sox! All the way this year!!"
I just cut the tags off my new camoflage sox hat and my wife did the same with her cute pink 'B' hat and we will be having a dinner party tonight during the game. Please come early so you don't miss the 7:05 tip off. Does anyone know if Jerry Remy and Neil Diamond will be doing the game tonight and what channel is it on? WB38?
d
Perhaps Manny will come back to Fenway and hit the game, and series, winning homerun. Then what will all you bitter, obnxoious Red Sox fans do? I am not talking about all Red Sox fans as I am one myself. Just you hate mongers. You all really disgust me.
Papelbon didn't have many walks because he was to busy giving up hits
King B, dont post any more. That question demonstrates a complete lack of understanding for the game of baseball. GO SOX
I'd like to see some analysis of the number of innings pitched by Angels' starters. Is it my imagination or are they showing signs of being over-taxed and fading towards the end of the year, a 'la an old Billy Martin team.
Tony, regarding Okajima, please be advised that a blown hold is not the same as a blown save.
King B - Rules for save opportunities apply whether it's the 6th inning or the ninth inning. If you blow the lead, you blow a save opportunity - even the there's no way Okajima would be sticking around for the ninth to actually be credited with a save.
D - I'd be much happier to see the Dodgers swept with Manny going 0-12. That bum and that team doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs.
As far as Sox - Dice K scares me (the worst 18-3 pitcher in the history of baseball), so I hope Lester and Becket win all their starts. Also, I agree - Ellsbury is the key to the offense - Youk, Pedroia, wil get their hits but need someone else to come up big to score runs.
Great analysis, Tony. Agree that Ellsbury may be the key at the plate and on the basepaths, but I see Lester as more critical than Dice-K. Lester needs to be the same pitcher we saw this season. If he is and Dice-K runs through to form, I like our closer better than theirs, but we need a productive Ellsbury. Otherwise, you're right: it's a short visit.
can you please make these printable so we can read 'em on the can at work? thanks in advance. ;-)
Any time Okajima entered the game in the 7th, 8th, or 9th with a lead is considered a save situation.... he'd have to finish the game, but is a save situation none the less. So, if he gave up the lead it's considered a blown save regardless if the Sox took the lead again before the end of the game and Paplebon officially closed it out and got a save.
While it's not possible to have more than one "save" per game, it is possible to have multiple blown saves in the same game.
In the beginning paragraph, second sentence where it states "They red sox and los angeles each played 162 games...."
it should be "The" not "they".
Just thought I'd point that out.
The comment on the importance of Ellsbury to the offense and the team's success is undermined by the stats. According to Chuck Waseleski, Sox were 63 - 35 in games Coco Crisp started and 32 - 32 in games he did not start (these games were almost entirely games with Ellsbury in the lineup). So, while Ellsbury may score an unusually large percentage of the times he reaches base, he does not reach it that often. Nor, apparently, does he do it at times and in ways that help the club win. Perhaps the best chance the Sox have is if Drew's back starts barking and Coco and Ellsbury are both in the lineup. Especially if Ellsbury can get his OBP up over .400 for the post-season!!
And you know what I keep thinking? If, for whatever reason, Angel runners do get on base and also when Dice K is pitching just because of the walk potential, even though his offensive numbers are iffy, I think Kevin Cash should be doing the catching just because what he lacks in leadership or whatever Tek brings (which he can probably do fine from the dugout and the signs he sends Cash), but Cash seems to throw out more base stealers.
well, if you want to talk 'Karma', then don't be too surprised if it's an all-Chicago series...
;^)
well, hopefully the sox just stick together and don't make stupid plays. alot of times the sox have lost games when both them and they're dedicated fans know they could have one. The resoning is this : making dumb plays like not reaching out enough to catch a ball, not thinking fast enough as to whitch base to get out first & if i see someone other than lugo try to steal a base when there is no chance they'll succedd i'll be very upset. Dont get me wrong i am i hard core red sox fan but they need to stick together and just play smart ball !
Oh Sox fans you use to be so humble, but I guess I can't blame you for being confident when you base today's games on what you did it the past( 04 & 07). The Angels are a different team this year and have so many players that can step it up this year. The list is pretty long. We had Tex, Vlad, Torri, Anderson, & as for the pitching Lackey,Saunders, Santana, & even though K-Rod is overrated he gets the job done. My X factors are Jerred Weaver & Howie Kendrick. Weaver will give the Angels a big boost from the bullpen when called upon & Howie Kendrick is healty enough to will finally show the world why he was so highly rated in the minors. Bottom line the Angels are REALLY GOOD, its the East Coast Bias that is killing them. They are just like USC football, its not USC fault they play in the crapy PAC 10, but when that BSC game comes up they romp who ever they play. Its like wakeing up a Monster and just like SC its not the Angels fault they are in the AL West. So when its time to play the games that count the Angels will be that Monster. They are hungry, they play hard, & finally have power. Sorry Sox fans, look at it this way you will always have 04 & 07.
Playoffs are made for upsets, anything can happen. Take Colorado as an example. Last year they stormed their way into the postseason and swept every team that stood in their way of the National League title. Don't be surprised if the Angels end up winning the series, and definetly dont be shocked if you see Boston win it again. They're both great ball clubs, both with different lineups and pitching than last year. The Angels have the advantage, but let's watch Boston beat them again.
By the way, Okajima did blow more than 7 games this year, and he had nine save oppurtunities. Look it up!
Tony is correct.......Okajima blew 8 saves this season (1 Save with 9 Save Opportunities)
You might not be far of D. I hope your right but, I have to admit Im not looking forward to hearing Manny this, Manny that, all postseason. Its a damn shame that he's even in consideration for NL MVP the way he acted the beginning of the year in Boston. What kind of message does that send to players and fans? Ill admit he's probably the best right-handed hitter in my lifetime and I even own a Manny jersey, but I cant stand seeing his name all over Boston newspapers like he was still here. Even worse can you imagine the Dogers win. The Globe will NEVER stop writing about Manny. .
Go look up the definition of "save" in the baseball dictionary King B, this is an absolutely true statistic.
This article here examplifies Manny Ramirez's frustration with Sports Journalists in & around the New England area. Arrogant statements made about Mr. Ramirez's ability are shocking & outrageous! He is a good character guy & extrordinary passion playing the game. Boston Sports Journalist want all Boston Athletes to be subservient to their narrow/elitest minded perspectives! Manny; Spoke clearly yesterday - He loves the Boston Fans but despises Boston Sport Journalist!
Although Papelbon has walked far fewer batters than Rodriguez, Papelbon blew some pretty big games because his pitches caught too much of the plate. Just because Rodriguez walked more batters isn't such a bad thing. Sometimes a pitcher pitches around a stronger hitter to face a weaker batter to induce the groundball double play or to get the strikeout. I think the biggest point you made was all the 1 and 2 run games the Angels have played in and won. Most playoff games come down to 1 or 2 runs. So I give the Angels the advantage in closing games out. I like your enthusiasm but I'm holding my breath.
Okajima's 1st 2 blown saves of the year came against the ANGELS - April 22 & 24...
Although the Sox did come back and win one of those games...
Giving up a lead is considered a blown save. If Okajima gave up a lead in the 8th, its considered a blown save even though he wasn't going to finish the game.
Am I the only one who likes the way the pitching has lined up? Lester has been our number one guy all year and even though Daisuke can be wild, he still has a much lower ERA than Beckett and gives up less homeruns. He's also been dominant on the road going 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA. If Beckett pitched game one, then Daisuke would've pitched game three at Fenway. Beckett is also lined up against Saunders who is currently the Angels hottest starter and has had the most success against Boston.
I'll disagree - mildly - with the statement that Ortiz "doesn't run the bases well".
As it's typically applied, maybe. Obviously, he's slow. But both he and the gimpy vet Mike Lowell are smart, alert base runners. If you don't pay attention to Papi, he'll take the extra base. Rarely do you see him get caught in a baserunning blunder. The man knows his limitations (and watching him slide can be terrifying), but he also knows defenders don't always take him seriously.
And he was SAFE when he tried to steal 2nd against the Yankees in the '04 ALCS. SAFE.
I agree with your 5 points
if our rotation gives us great innings I hope the BP will hold it up
Ellsbury needs to be on those bases to focus attention off the batter
...... as for the comment about booing Nomar
? Really grow up, I love Nomar always have an always will. Yeah the end was not great, but you cannot hold the crap people were saying about him to a complete justification.
And I would love to beat Torre
Lackey gave up 10 runs his last start (in Anaheim to the Rangers). The Red Sox have always hit him pretty well. I agree Ellsbury is the offensive key. I say he has a big game today and Lester takes game one.
Tony's take is fairly right on....
I don't believe Tito to have much faith in anyone in the pen, except Papelbon. Even then, Paps has not been lights out as in the pat.. he has relied much more heavily on his fastball (once threw 19 in a row in a BS) as he has not been able to locate or have any confidence in his once devastating splitter. The key to him finishing any opportunities successfully is mixing in the split effectively. I do believe Masterson will be given a shot in certain situations. The starters will most certainly be given a much longer leash.
Ellsbury is indeed key as he changes the whole dynamic. I fear the production out of the bottom of our order, especially our captain, who has looked as lost as ever nearly all year. He is a necessary out in our lineup, however (don't be surprised for PH Kotsay and Casey late for him though, one reason Tito brought 3 catchers to LA). As always, it will be the 2-out situational hitting that will be key for the Sox to stay in this with the aforementioned PHs...
Bottom line, if Lester is on his game and can go deep, we should be able to take game 1.
Sox in 4...
Game 1: Lester was AL pitcher of the month in September, Lackey had an 8.14 ERA in September... who do you like?
Game 2: Dice-K on the road this year is 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA. I can't get images of Ervin Santana being a headcase, unable to win on the road the last two years, out of my head. I can see him crumbling under the postseason pressure even though he's at home.
Game 3: Up 2-0, I can see the Sox giving Beckett a few extra days to heal up and throwing Byrd or Wakefield out there. Given their desperation and behind Joe Saunders, the Angels win this game.
Game 4: See Game 1, then add Lackey's career 6.34 ERA in Fenway (we'll ignore that near no-hitter this year :-)) and Lester's 11-1 record at home this year with a 2.49 ERA.
Then, just in case, we'd have Beckett ready to slam the door shut on a Game 5.
That's how I see it.
Big Papy is the key for Boston offense not Ellsbury, i can't believe people make comments like this.
B Flood - You're damn right he was safe when he tried to steal 2nd in 04. The memory of that blown call still makes me cringe.
alveseric87, I am quite aware that Joe Torre was never involved with the Red Sox in any capacity other than as an opposing player, coach or manager..
The "Joe Torre returning to Fenway Park as part of the Dodgers" story is what I was referring to.
Jeez, you gotta spell it out for some people!!!
Any fan around in 2004, when the Yanks had a 3-0 games lead over the Sox, and then the Sox went on to win the next 8 games straight to win the pennant and World Series, should remember the Sox can do it. They did it when most fans thought they were done. I believe! The Red Sox can win because they are the veteran and tested team...like Papi said: the Red Sox are dangerous in the playoffs. Pitching, hitting, defense, and character count in a short series. Red Sox in 5.
halos sweep - all the signs point that way. Sox are hurt, missing their x factor (who homered against the cubs tonight), and limping into playoffs after coming up short against Rays in two playoff-like series. Halos are hungry, angry and healthy. Lethal combination.
#50 all the nice words, hurt, x-factor, limping....
i see you read all the great analysis by those oh so smart sports journalists...
forget those sings, its baseball and playoff, nothing can be predicted.
haha, guess now you would rather say "halos will be swept"
as stated in #49, you gotta believe...
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