Five keys to the ALCS
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- On the chance that you are still having difficulty taking the Tampa Bay Rays for real, here are some things to consider:
The Rays won more games than the Red Sox. They hit more home runs and stole more bases. The Rays' starters and relievers had ERAs better than those of their Sox counterparts and the teams played extremely similar schedules.
"Really good," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said yesterday when asked how he would describe a Tampa Bay team that edged Boston during the regular season series, 10-8. "We've played them, I think, 18 games. And we saw firsthand why they had so much success."
Can these Rays be beaten?
Of course.
But it won’t be easy.
Here are five keys for the Sox to succeed:
5. Find a hole.
From top to bottom, the Rays have shown they can pretty much do it all. Here’s as good an indication as any: Despite a young starting rotation and a young catcher -- is it redundant to call the Rays young? -- they allowed fewer steals than all but four teams in the AL. Many inexperienced pitchers and catchers have trouble holding runners and defending against run, but not the Rays.
Remember: The Red Sox lost four of six to Tampa in September and the Rays effectively played those games without Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford. All three are back in the Tampa lineup and provide the Rays with good depth through the middle of the order. Former No. 1 pick Upton homered three times in the ALDS after hitting just nine during the regular season, but his performance against the White Sox wasn’t a fluke. He hit 24 last year and has the talent to be a perennial 30-30 player.
The Rays are young, talented, hungry, and tough. We learned the latter when they stood up to the Sox early in the season, James Shields drilling Coco Crisp with a fastball that triggered a bench-clearing brawl.
The point: In winning 97 games in the regular season and wiping out the White Sox in four games in the ALDS, the Rays have rarely shown a flaw this season. It's imperative that the Red Sox discover one, and then exploit it.
4. Start strong.
Elementary, right? In much the same way that the Sox needed to rely on their starters in the Los Angeles series, the same holds true against Tampa Bay. If Boston has any advantage right now, it probably comes in the first five or six innings, when the starters are in the game. Tampa has the kind of bullpen the Red Sox had last year, which is to say that the Rays are extremely efficient when it comes to protecting leads after the sixth inning.
Of course, all of this presumes the health of Josh Beckett, whose performance in Game 3 of the ALDS was worrisome. Francona recently said Beckett was affected by "rustiness," but we cannot help but wonder if his oblique injury is more of a hindrance than the club is letting on. If Beckett hits his stride and Jon Lester continues to dominate, the momentum in this series could shift considerably.
Regarding the rotation, can everyone stop being so foolish? No matter how well Lester pitches in this series, the Red Sox still have to win two games started by someone else.
3. Don’t slip up.
For all of the talent they possess, the Rays have been nothing if not opportunistic. During the ALDS and the regular season, the Rays took advantage of every chance opponents gave them. They have the speed and power to exploit mistakes, which means teams need to pitch them carefully and avoid giving away outs. This is especially true given the efficiency with which the Rays prevented runs this year. Only the Toronto Blue Jays allowed fewer among AL teams.
During the ALDS, the Red Sox made one error -- shortstop Jed Lowrie’s muff in Game 1. After that, the Sox played flawless defense against the Angels. Meanwhile, Tampa was turning in an even better performance against Chicago, playing the four-game series without committing an error or, consequently, allowing an unearned run.
In many ways, the Rays are a baseball prototype. They have exceptional pitching and defense. They have power at the corners and speed up the middle. And they don’t make many mistakes.
2. Don’t cave in the middle.
Funny, isn’t it? Tampa has budding superstars in Upton and Longoria, among others, and yet the keys to this series may be middle relievers Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell, the latter of whom is lefthanded. During the regular season, Howell, Balfour, Dan Wheeler, and Troy Percival each held opponents to a batting average of .194 or lower, a big reason for the team’s overall success.
Once Percival was injured (again) late in the year -- he is not the ALCS roster -- Wheeler moved into the closer’s role and the Tampa bullpen shortened some. This left a small hole in the middle of the game -- the fifth or sixth innings -- depending on the performance of Rays starters and other relievers, like Edwin Jackson (a starter during the regular season) or phenom David Price.
What that means, in all probability, is that Howell and Balfour (not necessarily) will pitch the seventh and eighth most nights. All year, both have been virtually untouchable. Red Sox pitchers need to match Howell and Balfour, playing them to a draw when either is in the game. That would allow the Sox to match up rotations and closers, the latter of which would allow Francona to maximize Jonathan Papelbon, as he did in pivotal Game 2 of the ALDS.
1. No napping from 2 to 4.
Let’s be honest: If the Red Sox are going to win this series, they need more out of Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, and, to a lesser extent, Kevin Youkilis. In Youkilis’s case, his totals in the ALDS (a .222 average, one RBI) were somewhat misleading as he had consistently good at-bats and played terrific defense at both corners. Still, he is the cleanup man and he has to drive in runs when he gets the chance.
All of that brings us to Pedroia (1 for 17) and Ortiz (4 for 17), who went a combined 5 for 34 (a .147 average) with two RBIs (one each) and one run scored (Ortiz) during the ALDS. That simply cannot happen against Tampa. Of the two, Pedroia had the better at-bats against the Angels, particularly at the end of the series; Ortiz lacked discipline and seemed terribly impatient while being fed a steady diet of breaking balls.
Before someone points out that the Sox won the Angels series without contributions from Pedroia, Ortiz and Youkilis -- again, the latter is statistically deceiving -- remember that the Angels handed over the series as much as the Red Sox took it. At this stage of the playoffs, you can’t expect opponents to give you games.
Rather, you have to take hold of them yourselves.



# 6 - Score more runs than the opposition
The [Devil] Rays may be young, and it's true that there's talent there ... maybe even hunger for a WS win, but tough? Not sure a bunch of low-lifes piling onto a guy can be considered tough, in fact, just the opposite. Even as a Red Sox fan, one could respect Crawford, but no longer. And Gomes? Nothing more than a skunk ...
There is actually only one ket to winning against the Rays......score more runs that they do in every single game!
Sorry Mazz, I don't agree with your statement that the Angels handed the ALDS to the Sox. Other than the ball dropping between Hunter and Kendrick, they made no other glaring mistakes. PErhaps their leaving runners on base and missed chances on offense were due to Boston's pitching and defense - both of which were superior in the series. Why make apoligies for winning that series 3-1????
Francona again proved he is the best manager in baseball......He will find a way to win.
"The Rays won more games than the Red Sox."
As a certain NY football team decisively proved last year -
It's not How Many games you win, it's Which games you win.
Jason bay's 3 run and 2 run homers were not earned? The Angels gave them those runs? It is getting really sickening listening to the media - even the Boston media - act like the Sox were given that series. You give up dingers to big bats YOU LOSE. The Angels were beaten twice at home, Bay was the hero of the series (and Lester of course), so you media guys can stop dissing his efforts and acting like the Sox did nothing but sit back and watch the Angels fold.
Precisely, Tony -- the Red Sox were handed that series by the Angels. ... Just two quality starts from the Sox (both by Lester) in the 4 games, miniscule production from the middle of the Boston order, failure after failure by Angels hitters with runners on, defensive lapses by LA, and two enormous rally-busting plays in Vlad's first-to-third blunder and the blown squeeze. ... TB won't play the way LA did, and if the Sox play as they did in the ALDS, then it's gonna be rude-awakening time for Red Sox Nation in this series, especially for the casual fans out there who think the Sox are unstoppable. ... They ain't.
Balfour is closing.
ortiz going 4 for 17 is close to .400...is that really a problem?
This is one of the most generic "keys to victory" I've ever seen. Start strong, don't slip up, don't cave in the middle, no napping 2-4 - lame synopsis, thanks Tony Mazz. I'm glad you're such a baseball expert, because I definitely couldn't have learned that from walking by a little league game and hearing a volunteer shout those same things. This is baseball, all of those are obvious for any game, whether you're playing the top of the AL East or the bottom.
Yeah, Yeah, the Rays are good, Blah...Blah...
But come on, enough already! The Rays are beatable..their starting pitching is beatable, the lineup is no where near the Yankees or the Cardinals, hey I would take last years Rockies Lineup over this Rays team! Infact, after Upton,Crawford, and Longoria who do they have? A couple guys we didnt want...Floyd, Pena, and Hinske? These guys would be on our bench...lets not forget this is the Tampa Bay!
Hey kokomjolk -- How poorly did you do in math class? 4 for 17 is .235 dummy. 4 for 11 is almost .400 -- 4 for 17 is not close to 400 at all.
4 for 17 is a problem.... .235 average from the 3rd spot in the lineup.
I think the mistake Mazz is alluding to would be one, the potential Double Play ball bobbled, that would have had Lackey out of the inning in the last game, instead a run scored after. But a DP was not a given with Ellsbury running. Also, Matthews gave us a run in game 1 by misplaying a fly ball. they were 2 big runs in tight games. ...4/17 is .230 something, not quite .400....Mazz is bound to give you generic analysis, like the goofs on the big show. Merloni, Eck, even Buck Martinez give great analysis. THey played. Not that that's a prerequisite, but helps. Mazz, McAdams & co, uber-geeks that are gloriifieldd fans. Gammons too.
If Jacoby Ellsbury starts every game in center-field or right and the Red Sox pitching has no injuries we haven't been told about then the Red Sox will win in five - or maybe six. IT HAS BEEN WRIT.
.236 really isn't close to .400 in my book or that great of a bating average.
unless your math has something to do with why the economy is tanking
4 for 17 close to .400???.... GW may be looking for someone like you to help with the financial crisis. Just play the games - Go Sox!
kokomjolk - time to brush up on your math, buddy. 4 for 17 is a .235 average. And those 4 hits weren't exactly bullets, most of them little bleeders through the infield. Ortiz has definitely got to produce more for the Sox to win.
ortiz going 4 for 17 is .235. nice try koko.
4 for 17 is a .400 average?? That's fuzzy math. This series will be all about the Sox starting pitching - Dice K and Beckett. If they post quality starts and Dice doesn't walk the world, the Sox should win.
What's ur next article? 5 ways to prevent sunburn: 1. wear sunscreen. 2. limit time in the sun. 3. Wear a hat. 4. Wear clothing that covers the skin. 5. Stay out of sunlight. Is Massarotti Italian for Master of the obvious?
4 for 17 is 400? Is that the new math. It is actually .235 which is nowhere near 400.
The Sox earned the victory over the Angels, some clutch hits, great defense and they took advantage when the Angels made a mistake. That has been the recipe for success in playoff baseball since 1903. We will need for Ortiz, Pedroia and Youk to play up to their capabilities if we are going to beat Tampa but I think they will get it done. Pedroia swung the bat OK against the Angels, he hit about 5 bullets that were caught, Ortiz will deliver...count on it. By the way, koko...4-17 is .235...not very close to ,400.
Captain Obvious aka Tony mazzarotten strikes again.
I get so sick of hearing these time worn platitutdes rewritten every year. Can no writer come up with anything original?
Jeez how many times have you heard the following...
1. If (insert pitcher here) can keep the ball down, attack the inside of the plate, tthrow strikes and not get behind in the count, he will do well. ( uh duh!)
2. (insert team) have to play their game, and not let ( insert opponent) get them flustered and/or take them out of their game.
3. (insert batter) has to be selective with his swings, and wait for his pitch. OR
(insert batter) has to remain disciplined, and not swing at stuff out of the strike zone.
4. (insert team or batter) has to make (insert pitcher) work, if they can get quality at bats, they can get to the bullpen early.
5. ( not quite all batters but close) has to use all fields, if they pitch him away he has to go with it.
and my favorite, which is seemingly always lobbed at teams like the angels..
6. They have to come up with the big hit/big play when its needed. ( as opposed to what? after the game?)
other notables include phrases like,
play up to thier capablities, dont give up a lot of early runs, and the all time greatest! Not leave men on base!
Now you too can use these to become a sports writer. why be original when you can be classic!
I totally agree w/ all of the 5 points, but none more than #1. Without Pedroia & Papi hitting, we're screwed. If they don't both hit at least .300 it's over. Thank God for Ellsbury and Drew. and at this point whatever V-Tek can do to contribute at the plate is just gravy. I would like to see more from Kotsay too. He seemed to come to the plate w/ runners on a lot in the ALDS.
Hits with RISP is key and our problem is that we have a history of leaving 8-10 batters on base in a game. We get hits at the right moments, we play w/out any errors and Beckett pitches like the Beckett of the '07 p-offs and we win this things in 6.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. How many times have we heard that in the past.
It only takes one run to win a ballgame. Good pitching beats good hitting everytime.
Did anyone watch the 2 playoff games Lester started against the Angels?
Did anyone watch last nights Phillies/Dodger game?
Enough said !
4 for 17 is about .230.
post #10: 4 for 17 is .235.
our school systems are frightening.
Kokomojolk - Nice math how about closer to 200 or 235 to be percise.
kokomjolk,
4 for 17 is not close to .400....close to .250 maybe
yikes the US really is falling behind in math
"kokomjolk"
Actually, 4 for 17 computes to a .235 average, NOT even close to .400
umh......4 for 17 is more like .235.....just saying....
koko..."4 for 17 is close to .400"? really. it's .235...we need papi to deliver
The Key Words for Winning in the Dictionary:
1- HUMBLENESS
Not proud or arrogant; modest: to be humble although successful yet not having a feeling of insignificance, inferiority or subservience.
2- STUBBORN
Fixed or set in purpose or opinion; resolute, having staying or lasting qualities, resoluteness, and perseverance yet not being unreasonably obstinate; obstinately unmoving.
3- FOCUSED
Close or narrow attention; concentration, clustered or gathered together closely.
GO RED SOX!!!
4-for-17 is .235, which I suppose is closer to .400 than it is to .000, but... without meaning to bash Papi, whose 2004 postseason earned him an inexhaustible reservoir of mulligans, and I bet he'd make an awesome friend, too - yeah, it's a problem
Type your comment here...I think the KEY to beating the rays is to bench Capt CHOKE, Varitek kills rallys he can"t hit so why does he switch hit, conecntrate on one side before you try both sides. The best thing for THE NATION is keep Varitek on the bench.
4 for 17 is not close to .400, it's more like .235
kokomjolk hope you are better in swedish than math 4 of 17 is less than .250 and that will not cut it for a ALCS victory
# 10, 4 for 17 is close to .400? I guess the 20 bucks I have in my wallet is also close to 1 million....why am I woried?
Yes, Papi has to start hitting. And he will...
Sox in 5. Tampa Bay is....Tampa Bay.
Go SOX!!
kokomjolk, you might want to brush up on your math skills
Imagine how much crap the Boston media would be giving the team if the Sox actually lost to the Angels. Sox in 6.
On item #10: 'ortiz going 4 for 17 is close to .400'
Koko, time for some remedial math.
4 for 17 is batting .235... not close to .400 at all...
"Other than the ball dropping between Hunter and Kendrick, they made no other glaring mistakes." David S. Moore
Did you even watch the series?
"ortiz going 4 for 17 is close to .400...is that really a problem?" kokomjolk
Come on people, really? Read what you write before you embarass yourselves.
To kokomjolk....ortiz going 4 for 17 is NOT even close .400 or .300....try .235!!!
Hey kokomjolk where did you learn your math????4 for 17 is .235.
4 for 17 is .235 not even close to .400. Umm that is a problem.
Hey paulie: Nobody hands anybody anything....you take advantage of mistakes...thats what makes u a better team....the Rays are a good team....no doubt it...top to bottom they are good.So in an instance such as this its the intangibles...ask the Angels thats what they lost....the inability to do a simple baseball play....a play thats taught in little league....nobody believes the Rays are gonna roll over and play dead for the mighty Red Sox...not even close....but they better play close to perfect...because one thing the Sox do have and thats experience......Losing and WINNING.......
Hey, could someone tell me what 4 for 17 is?
Rename this to the "Kokomjolk Blog". His/Her comment got more feedback than Mazz's cliched retread of every g-damn postseason series preview from the last 15 years
Aww, give Koko a break, gang.
As for Maz, although the column does state the obvious, that doesn't make it wrong. Just not insightful. But give him a break, too - you try writing 2-3 pieces a day that are creative, original and imaginative.
Yes, the Angels failed to hit in the clutch, but might that have something to do with the Sox pitching and defense? And perhaps their base-path gaffes (Vlad getting nailed by Youk at 3rd, failed squeeze bunt, etc) were forced by the feeling that they had to press to get runs?
Give the Sox some credit - they did what they had to do to win the series. Every team left in the playoffs now has one loss. Should be fun from here on out.
I realize there is a great mystery in baseball that might never be answered solved and it all depends on one's disposition. Here it is:
The difference between "good pitching" vs. "bad hitting" OR "bad pitching" vs. "good hitting" depends only on the team you're rooting for.
Massarotti thinks that the Red Sox got lucky because the Angels were "bad hitting", but he won't see it as "good Red Sox pitching."
And he thinks that the Red Sox were given gifts because the Angels had "bad pitching" yet he won't see it as good Red Sox hitting.
It all depends on your disposition. Mazz has an easier time seeing that the Red Sox got lucky rather than seeing that they might be playing some of their best ball of the season.
It's quality, not quantity. (see the Cardinals in '06. They got pretty 'lucky' didn't they Mazz...)
I guess he's friends with John Lackey.
Yes...the Sox need to score more and, against the Rays, they had better score early. That said, the only way that the Sox can beat the Rays is if Josh Beckert returns to his usual postseason form.
First coorection of KOKO at 1:14 and you guys cannot find anthing else to talk about at 3:21?
I agrre with several here that Mazz is just spitting out the same stuff we all know wins ballgames. I wonder how many here have ever played in a playoof game in any sport? I have and it's nerve racking and it's when real athletes stand up. It alos helps if you have done it before, how many on the Ryas have?
"Read what you write before you embarass yourselves."
True. Otherwise you might do something dopey. Like misspell "embarrass".
anyone catch that math error? ;)
More than half of the comments are correcting someone's math. Welcome to the Department of Redundancy Department.
kokomjolk says that ortiz went 4 for 17, which he claimed is "almost .400." Actually, it's .235, and that's a problem. check your math, man.
Hey pete rampino. You want to bench Teck?... He is a HUGE reason the Sox pitching is as good as it is. Offensively he has had his worse season but I still would not bench him. He is captain for a reason. It is no fluke that he has cought 4 no-hitters. And he has had some good at bats in the ALDS. And one of the biggest hits of the series in game 5 that has been overlooked. Ask any pitcher on the sox if they should bench Teck and what do you think they would say?
Koko may be an idiot who can't do simple math, but I think Coco will be important in this series. He will be needed defensively in the Trop on that horrible carpet. I think he will be the Sox' X-Factor.
give the guy a break he divided wrong, big deal. see 17 divided by 4 =4.25 which i assume he though was how you figure out a batting avg. Just because he may not know how to figure a batting avg. doesnt mean he cant be a fan.
Bythe way who the heck cares how many men Daisuke walks? do you all forget he has the lowest against batting avg with men on base in the league. Or thathe hasnt allowed a baes loaded run in the entire regular season. This is how he works, and he went 18 and 3 i mean cmon. sheesh. bythe way he won game 2 well okay he didnt but he shouldve until the bullpen blew his lead. And why are we briging wakefield in to pitch? he has been TERRIBLEagainst tamps this year, he gives up way too many homeruns. i emans come on. at least byrd keeps it in the park. And thank you for activating timlin, we need someone to relive wakefield that is his age can give up as many homeruns with ease. anyone wanna bet onthe odds for game 4? sigh.
Truth of the matter is the Angels were an over confident team. It started with Scioscia (which I was surprised at). He made reference, in the local newspapers out here about how he had a much better team than last years team. How they won 100 games, and that they matched-up better to the RS than any other year. I also think the players were letting the regular season record between both teams get to there heads.
Someone forgot to tell them the A.L. west is not the A.L. east. Texas, Oakland and Seattle. Need I say more.
Mazz is great but he,like all the other media, are in LOVE with Tampa. Seriously, can anyone think of ANY negative comments about the rays outside of the Sox have more experience. Apparently this is the best team ever and has no weakness, all their hitters are good, all their pitchers are good, they run blah blah blah. REALLY? They have NO weaknesses?
On the other hand ALL the talk about the Sox is about their weaknesses: injuries, poor middle relief, they are lucky to have beaten the Angels, etc
It's NUTS! Playoff baseball has proven time and time again to be vastly different than regular season. we'll see what happens
The thing that really worries me is wakefield and Dice-K pitching back to back in games #4 and #5, because there is a good chance one or both won't pitch over five innings. If this happens it will really put a big strain on our bullpen for these two games. Luckily we'll have an off day bfore games 6 and 7 to line our bullpen back up for the final push......GO SOX!!!!!
Here's what I think is the key to winning tonight's game. Let's take it one game at a time. Dice K needs to throw first pitch strikes and pitch off his fastball. If he can do this we win, his off speed stuff is nasty and he has more of it than Cotter has pills!
And as Tito always says keep the line moving!
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