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The real series starts now

Posted by Tony Massarotti, Globe Staff October 3, 2008 10:51 AM

ANAHEIM, Calif. – For the Red Sox, in many ways, the playoffs begin tonight. Jon Lester was the most certain commodity entering these playoffs. Now the Sox venture into the great unknown.

What will they get from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett?

Lest there be any doubt, thanks to Lester’s brilliance in Game 1, the second game of this American League Division Series is a virtual must win for the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels were the best road team in baseball this year (50-31), but losing twice at home to open a five-game series is borderline suicidal. The good news for the Angels is that they will line up behind Ervin Santana, who has been to the Angels staff what Lester has been to the Red Sox:

Their best pitcher this season, even if he is technically regarded as their No. 2 starter.

As for the Sox, the focus now turns to Matsuzaka and Beckett, the latter of whom is of far greater consequence. If Beckett is entirely healthy, the Red Sox have the best postseason pitcher in all of baseball lined up for Game 3. If he is not, it will be of additional importance for Matsuzaka to perform well in this series, and there is simply no way of knowing what the Red Sox will get from a man who pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win as many as 18 games in a season.

The bad news? Matsuzaka goes first.

The good news? During what manager Terry Francona termed an "aggressive" side session Thursday, Beckett passed with flying colors. He threw 67 pitches, roughly half from the windup, half from the stretch. He threw fastballs, cutters, curves, and changeups. At no point did Beckett alter his delivery or seem limited by his oblique injury. At no point did he really rest, pause or give cause for wonder. (In case you’re wondering, I watched.)

"You're always checking on health and with Josh it's important, too," said Francona, who made the relatively unusual practice to sit in on the session himself. "He needs to know going into a start that he has what is available, what he needs to win, so [Thursday] was a very productive day. Nothing was cut short, [his] fastball had some finish to it, through all his pitches. Now, again, we'll monitor him as we go, but the medical people were out there and I think we were very pleased with the way things went."

Later, the manager even joked about his presence in the bullpen.

"I don’t know why I even went," he said. "We had half of Mass General out there."

On Sunday, in Game 3, half of Mass General still won’t be as important as a full Beckett.

All of this brings us to Matsuzaka, who is nothing short of a riddle despite an 18-3 record and a 2.90 ERA that made him one of the best net-gain pitchers in baseball this season. In Matsuzaka’s 29 starts, the Red Sox went 23-6. Matsuzaka finished tied for fifth in baseball in victories and ranked seventh in ERA, yet he finished 83d in innings, immediately behind the great Dana Eveland. There is simply no way to explain that other than to say that Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate that he has received excellent run support (fifth-best in baseball) and good support from the bullpen.

Even the Red Sox seem to acknowledge that.

(For more on Matsuzaka’s peculiar season, click here.)

"Thankfully, he is 18-3. At the same time, a lot of things had to fall his way," pitching coach John Farrell said recently. "[But] the one thing we'll always refrain from is: while we would like to see greater pitch efficiency, we can't take away or change a style he has had for his entire career for the sake of lower pitch counts. Who's to say he'll [still] have success?"

Translation: He is who he is.

Before this is all interpreted as Dice-bashing, let’s make something clear. By the simple nature of supply and demand, above-average pitching is expensive and Matsuzaka thus far has been worth every penny of the $103 million the Red Sox spent to get him. At the end of the day, over the last two seasons, Matsuzuka has given the Red Sox ample chances to win games while collecting 33 victories, more than any pitcher in baseball in that period, save for Brandon Webb (40), Roy Halladay (36), and CC Sabathia (36).

Just the same, if the Red Sox’ pitching staff is vulnerable this season, the weakness is in the middle. (This is true of most teams.) The most important development in Game 1 was Lester’s ability to take the mound for and complete the bottom of the seventh, giving Francona an array of options and combinations to get through the eighth. Justin Masterson ended up getting the ball, but Francona also had Hideki Okajima and, of course, Jonathan Papelbon if there had been such a need.

So what happens tonight? That is anybody’s guess. Late in July, during his only appearance against the Angels this year, Matsuzaka pitched five shutout innings before getting tattooed in the sixth. The Angels scored six runs in that inning en route to a lopsided victory. If Beckett proves to be less than 100 percent and if Matsuzaka labors tonight, this series could change dramatically. Of course, that is also the nature of postseason play to begin with.

If, if, if.

In baseball, it’s the biggest word every October.

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43 comments so far...
  1. The typical thing will probably happen tonight. Matsuzaka will be cruising for an inning and a half to two innings. His slider will be sharp, his fastball will have good life and be well located, and he'll get swings and misses. Then some little thing like a slip on the mound or a comebacker that tags him on the shoe will knock him off his rhythm and he'll promptly walk the next 2 batters to load the bases. He'll struggle to get back into a groove and exit after 5+ innings with the game on the line and the Sox lineup struggling against Santana.

    Posted by Cinco_Ocho October 3, 08 11:29 AM
  1. For me personally, the perrformance by Lester was not a considered a "certainty" prior to the series. I don't know how anyone can have expected that type of performance given Lester's short regular season and postseason resume. Did I think he could do it? Yes. Did I deem it a "certain commodity"? Not quite.

    The fact is that Matsuzaka has pitched in more big / pressure games (obviously including Japan) than Lester. Let's not rewrite history and pretend Lester was already a certified, proven, playoff ace and Matsuzaka is an inexperienced pitcher who may wet his pants on the mound tonight..

    Posted by Ghost of Gord Edes' lipo tube October 3, 08 11:32 AM
  1. One thing is certain. We'll need better run production and hitting then we got in game one. That line up is a much better hitting line up then they gave in game one. The Sox need to hit like they do at home. Santana is going to be really hard to beat. I think Dice has what it takes to do it if he get the run support. The Angels are on the brink of losing it all.. If we have greater than a 2 point lead in at the end of 6, we'll sweep this series for sure. It will definiatly let the Sox know that they're in the heads of the Angels. It almost more mental than physical at this point. Go SOX!

    Posted by SFSOXFAN October 3, 08 12:12 PM
  1. The one good thing about his season full of short outings is that he should plenty left in the tank for the post-season. If the Sox win tonight, it's an almost certain sweep, which is amazing considering I and many others predicted the Angels in 4. That said, it most likely will require the bullpen winning the game tonight, which is iffy at best.

    Posted by Jason October 3, 08 12:35 PM
  1. IS MAZZ A RED SOX FAN?

    Posted by BOB PHINNEY October 3, 08 12:44 PM
  1. The sox actually put game 5 into the hands of Dice K, they wanna use Lester twice and assume one win from Dice K or Beckett. All of the 3 combined are allowed to lose twice, no matter the two loses fall on any one and any one twice.

    If they all lose once. That means Dice K has to pick up the last game at LA. The ultimate showdown looks quite unnecessary after Lester's win.

    So hype fear here is for Mazz's job, and sox will advance over angles' dead cold body for real.

    Posted by Liyu October 3, 08 12:45 PM
  1. The Angels aren't as dangerous as everyone is making them out to be. In order for a closer to win 60+ games he has to be on a team that has trouble putting other teams away .
    Dice K may have thrown fewer ininngs than most but he threw as many pitches during the season I bet.
    The Sox look good to me and I love our chances tonight.

    Posted by Bill G October 3, 08 01:20 PM
  1. nice pic mazz you look like a goon and your opinions stink

    Posted by nickynick October 3, 08 01:43 PM
  1. Let's not mince words. Angels must win game 2 or its over. Generally, the Red Sox are a sseasoned playoff team, the Angels are not. Specifically the key issue for the Angels is whether the offense packs more punch. Frankly the Sox should have scored more against Lachey. They hit him hard and let him off the hook by not being patient in the middle of the count.

    The Angels should be concerned about their offense. They did not acquire Texiera and Hunter to be singles hitters to surround Vlad. If they don't up the extra base hits the series is over. I don't care what they did in the regular season, that means nothing. (See Cubs, Brewers) The bottom line is the Red Sox have better playoff starting pitching (provided Becket is ok) and a better closer (K-Rod broke the save record but he also led the league in blown). The only player on the Angels that is scary is Vlad and he can be neutralized.

    Posted by Tony October 3, 08 01:45 PM
  1. yeah I agree - Lester's performance the other night should not be underestimated. Lackey had the Sox number this year too. It's not like we need more drama for a 5 game series here. Matsuzaka's far from a sure thing I agree, his walks and wildness could definitely bite him with the Angels lineup. If he wins, it will be all but over. The pressure is clearly on the Angels even if they win tonight I think, it's still prove you can beat us as far as the Angels/Sox go.

    Posted by CT October 3, 08 01:47 PM
  1. The real series start now? Last time I checked Lester's win counted. He is pissing me off. He works for the Globe and he is talking trash.
    I just hope that the Red Sox win to shut his mouth.

    Posted by Christina October 3, 08 01:50 PM
  1. Dice K will cruise...Why is anyone doubting this? You don't win 18 games by accident and break into the top 5 in ERA, this is no coincidence.

    Dice K = Flat-Out Uber Ninja!!!!

    Hiyaaa!!!!!

    And yes I also was in the commercial for the VineYard!

    Posted by Ben Ichton October 3, 08 01:56 PM
  1. I'm predicting 0 runs through 4, 4 runs in the 5th, 1 more in the 6th and 8th off timlin and Okajeemer. Sox get one early and two late and fall 6-3. You can only implode in the middle innings so many times before it catches up with you.

    Posted by dan October 3, 08 02:04 PM
  1. I think Mazz is overplaying this just a tad. I mean think about it. We all knew that DiceK pitched a lot fewer innings in Japan with the shorter season there. The Sox are just protecting him, as they should, to get him through the longer season. And to have some gas left in the tank for October.

    Posted by JeffG October 3, 08 02:08 PM
  1. I read something in another article on another site that is important to note: the Sox Pen had yesterday off. Even if Dice-K pitches 5 or 6, the pen is fresh and will have travel time to recover afterwards.

    I have a good feeling about how they are going to do against Santana. This lineups shows up in big games. Last year people wrote them off against CC and Carmona and they TAGGED those guys. If they win tonight, it's probably going to be a sweep.

    Posted by Scott October 3, 08 02:10 PM
  1. Dice simply needs to trust his stuff. So many times he gets 2 outs and then gets ahead of hitter 1-2 but ends up walking him and then the next. All of a sudden its 18-22 pitches instead of 14-16. Trust your stuff and attack and this will be 2-0 Sox.

    Posted by Joe October 3, 08 02:21 PM
  1. Honestly, don't think Beckett is quite himself. Love to see the big game pitcher re-emerge, but I don't think that will happen just yet. Sox really need this one, don't kid yourself about already having the split in Anaheim. Hate to have to play game 5 in California....win tonight and Sox will be fine....all the way to the Series. Winner of this series will win AL.

    Posted by bill October 3, 08 02:28 PM
  1. When you have a 2.90 era (which, y'know, is tops among Sox starters) you're not just lucky to have run support and a bullpen. The Sox Pen was a mess for much of the season, yet Dice-K still managed only 2 losses (until his final tuneup start).
    When are folks going to finally get it in their heads that just because Dice-K is a little bit different from what we're used to doesn't mean he's not still Very, Very Good.
    That 2.90 era isn't the bullpen or the offense. That's Daisuke and we should be just as comfortable, if not more so, with Daisuke on the mound as we were with Lester.

    Posted by Brendan October 3, 08 02:33 PM
  1. Massaroti needs to go back to where he orginated from!

    Posted by dan October 3, 08 02:43 PM
  1. I think people are too hard on Dice-K. Most tv and radio experts say that Japan is like AAA(A), so we somewhat have a sophomore pitching. And while he mostly goes 6 innings and issues walks, he gives up very few hits and he has one of the highest missed swing rates in the league. I agree that he taxes the bullpen, but he is on a great team f that is his biggest problem--the other pitchers tend to go deep into games. And besides, in the playoffs you have many more days off, so his one problem is less of an issue at this time.

    Posted by mike October 3, 08 02:45 PM
  1. Dice K can be frustrating but I think it is acceptable to expect 6 innings tonight with 2 runs or less. Are bullpen is fully rested with a day off tomorrow so even if he goes five, we can use byrd, MDC, Oki, Masterson, Lopez, and Paps. Some combination of those guys should be able to hold the Angels.

    Yes, Santana had a good year. To my knowledge he doesn't have a long history of pitching big games. 13 of his 32 starts this year were against the lousy AL West.
    All pressure is on the Angels. Go Sox

    Posted by Scott from Presque Isle October 3, 08 02:45 PM
  1. I think people are too hard on Dice-K. Most tv and radio experts say that Japan is like AAA(A), so we somewhat have a sophomore pitching. And while he mostly goes 6 innings and issues walks, he gives up very few hits and he has one of the highest missed swing rates in the league. I agree that he taxes the bullpen, but he is on a great team f that is his biggest problem--the other pitchers tend to go deep into games. And besides, in the playoffs you have many more days off, so his one problem is less of an issue at this time.

    Posted by mike October 3, 08 02:46 PM
  1. The constant criticism of Daisuke is goofy.

    7th best ERA in the majors.

    Once again,

    7th best ERA in the majors.

    Wins aren't relevant. Too much has to deal with run-support. But ERA is the best criteria for evaluating pitchers. Unless you can tell me he pitched against consistently worse batting teams, then ERA is important. And you are already counting NL pitchers (which you shouldn't). So dock him some points for the poor innings. I'm happy to have the 10th best pitcher in the league AS OUR NUMBER 3 STARTER!

    Posted by Apple October 3, 08 02:53 PM
  1. The real series started on Wednesday, day one of the playoffs. You can't erase a game just because the Red Sox won.

    Posted by CentalCTSoxFan October 3, 08 03:06 PM
  1. i hope that the red sox end up with the most points tonight.

    Posted by benjikaye22 October 3, 08 03:12 PM
  1. But how will Palin do against Dice-K?

    Posted by Anonymous October 3, 08 03:22 PM
  1. BOSTON 10 - LA 0 - THAT IS THE LAST 10 GAMES IN THE POSTSEASON THAT THE SOX HAVE WON AGAINST THE ANGELS.
    DO WE EXPECT SOMETHING DIFFERENT TONIGHT??? L.A. IS LIKE A HARD COOKIE - THEY CRUMBLE.
    Jamies Score prediction for this evening. - Red Sox 7 - Angels 3 / I have been right with my game predictions this season 97.9% of the time. (all Red Sox Games regular and now post season) (wins and losses).
    Sox in 4
    Jamie

    Posted by Anonymous October 3, 08 03:24 PM
  1. MAZZ, the real series started Wednesday night and the SOX won. You only need 3 to win and we're 1/3 of the way there. We're the defending World Champs; not the Angels. They have to take it away from us, not vice-versa. They've never defeated us in the playoffs. The only skeptics should be Angels fans. The best records don't mean much in the playoffs (aka CUBS), as the AL East was a much stronger division than the AL West. The SOX are now heavy favorites to make it to the ALCS until the Angels prove otherwise. All we have to do is scores runs, because our starting pitching is better than their's. GO SOX!!!

    Posted by JJ October 3, 08 03:31 PM
  1. So, we're supposed to believe that the Sox are going to struggle against a pitcher they have a history of lighting up tonight?

    Dice gets the win tonight, and I expect a signature performance from him.

    ...also, why would anybody have picked the Angels to win this series...seriously? They can't hit mediocre pitching, let alone good pitching. Sox get the win tonight, sweep behind Nuke on Sunday.

    Posted by Soxfaninmaryland October 3, 08 03:32 PM
  1. Faaaaaart!

    Posted by Asdrubal Cabrera October 3, 08 03:36 PM
  1. It's curious, but my reading of the Globe commentators' opinions of Dice K would lead me to believe that he is unreliable and lucky whereas Beckett and Lester are dependable.

    The figures indicate that he is one of the best pitchers in the Majors. The Angels must have less doubts about him tonight than do his supporters. But, I suppose that when you are blessed with three pitchers as good as the Red Sox possess, you must always find one that is inadequate.

    From my distant point of view, we have a great chance of winning in four if not three BECAUSE of Dice K. When will he receive the vote of confidence from the Boston press he deserves? Or is it always half time at Gillette Stadium?

    Posted by dmcarver October 3, 08 04:08 PM
  1. I have a good feeling about tonight's game. I think we will swing the bat well and score 6 or 7 runs and Dice K will be as sharp as he needs to be (maybe even make it through 6 innings!) Look for Pedroia to have a great game, 4/5 and going deep, and Ellsbury to continue to get on base and make things happen.

    Posted by Wakefield Sox Fan October 3, 08 04:12 PM
  1. but how will Palin do against Dice-K?

    Posted by drew October 3, 08 04:14 PM
  1. Let's all hope the Angels are out for revenge tonight and maddened by their press because then Dice-K will be like magic because they will be swinging freely at him and suddenly it will be the seventh inning and so as not to push luck, Delcarmen does the seventh, Okajima the eighth and Paps the ninth.

    Posted by Kate October 3, 08 04:19 PM
  1. UM Cinco Ocho typical? when did daisuke do that this year?
    Daisuke has loaded the bases a lot, and yet has not allowed 1 run in those situations. Poeple complain he isnt working enough innings, but if you look back youll find that the sox were so far ahead after 6 that francona pulled him and used the time to work his relievers. The guy is 18 and 3 for crying out loud. I dont know where you get that he will leave with the game "on the line".
    It amazes me to see fans who ignore the numbers, and the reality to impose thier own world on things, just because they dont like someone.
    ANd santana isnt all that, he had the same amount of wins as lester, but never pitched against the sox. he pitched primarily in the second weakest division in all of baseball. is it any wonder that angels always fall, these teams have so little competition. its easier for them to get wins. and yet santana couldnt even match daisukes win total.

    Posted by steveh October 3, 08 04:29 PM
  1. Just to add to the comment by SFSoxfan, "if we have greater than a two point lead at the end of six , we'll sweep"...but only if the Angels don't kick a game-tying field goal and then win in OT.

    Posted by Ropah October 3, 08 04:37 PM
  1. Just to add to the comment by SFSoxfan, "if we have greater than a two point lead at the end of six , we'll sweep"...but only if the Angels don't kick a game-tying field goal and then win in OT.

    Posted by Ropah October 3, 08 04:38 PM
  1. The emergence of Lester has profoundly changed the makeup of the Sox in a short series. Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett are the strongest front 3 the Sox have ever taken into the post season. (Despite Lowe's clutch performance in the 04 post season were we really confident with an injured Schilling, a Pedro in steep decline, and a hit and miss Lowe?) The Sox need a strong 5+ from Dice K tonight. Given the series schedule it's not unreasonable to get 10 or 11 outs from a combination of Masterson, Okajima and Papelbon. If needed, you could probably call on Papelbon for half of them. Bottom line, if you can handle the pain of watching Matsuzaka pitch (it should be about 1:00 AM by the 5th inning), it will be worth it. The Angels always tihten up in the post season and this year is no exception. Sox sweep.

    Posted by stan "big" papi October 3, 08 04:40 PM
  1. Well, let's see, aren't Lester, Dice K, and Beckett the best 1, 2, 3 punch on any one team in baseball? If they are on, I think we are headed for another run to the WS. Of course if they falter and we have to rely on a 4, or 5 in teh rotation, you better hope that Dr. Gil can do a nifty surgical trick on Schilling and send him out with a blood on his shoulder and elbow. Of course ther eis always Wake's knuckler theat the whole league has finally figured out. Hmmm, shouldbe interesting and exciting at the same time. Go Sox!

    Posted by MrBehave October 3, 08 04:41 PM
  1. Dice-K is a pitcher who does not like to give in to a batter. The man has unhittable stuff. If allowed to pitch into the seventh he might throw 135 pitches and have the bases loaded three times. However he relishes the challenge on not letting a base runner score (look at his performance when men are on base--it is superb).
    If management would allow him to throw 135 pitches, which he is capable of doing without any adverse effects, Beckett could close out the series in Fenway. Enough said!!!

    Posted by Everett Tracey October 3, 08 04:46 PM
  1. I think what we should expect is that Matsuzaka will give up a hit, a bunch of walks, and maybe a run, and exit early. Then we get to the bullpen, which is in good shape. Part of the reason that Dice-K has been so successful is that the rest of the Sox starters pitch long enough (win or lose) that he can rely on the bullpen being fresh when he's out of pitches. That seems to apply today, so I think the mostly likely outcome is another hard-to-watch Sox win.

    Posted by Daniel Barkalow October 3, 08 05:02 PM
  1. Everyone criticizing DICE-K are either IDIOTS or Jealous of him. He gets Run support. but is ERA is 2.90 3 best for an AL Starter. Believe me if he had pitched in NL his ERA would be 2 or less than 2 and probably 25 wins...
    DICE-K is the BEST REDSOX pitcher this year.

    Posted by Ramprasad October 3, 08 05:24 PM
  1. I think Mazz is fine I have no idea what its like in Boston in general ( im in Ireland ) but if your a red sox fan thats what you are and sure its fine to talk about their short-comings trouble is all you seem to want is bad news pushed aside
    Win or lose im a fan and i know everyone on field tonite will give 100%
    And to the person who said Timlin will blow it!!! is he even in the 25 !!!

    keep up good work Mazz

    Posted by Dave in Derry Ireland October 3, 08 05:39 PM
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Tony Massarotti

is taking a few days off to celebrate the arrival of summer.

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Updated: Jun 20, 10:42 AM

About Mazz

Tony Massarotti is a Globe sportswriter and has been writing about sports in Boston for the last 19 years. A lifelong Bostonian, Massarotti graduated from Waltham High School and Tufts University. He was voted the Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by his peers in 2000 and 2008 and has been a finalist for the award on several other occasions. He'll be using this forum to provide information, insight, and analysis on the Boston sports scene.

Tony's Top 5

Things to eat during the summer

5
Ice cream. Obvious, right? But we’re not talking about Haagen-Dazs. Go to a local stand and forgo the chain stores.
4
Spaghetti al limone. Do a Google search for the simple recipe and use linguine. Fast. Refreshing. Different.
3
Corn on the cob. Brush it with a little olive oil or butter and lightly salt. Then grill it. Trust me on this one.
2
Clams. Bellies or strips, steamed or fried. We prefer the steamahs, but go to your local shack and choose.
1
Lobster. If have a gas grill, buy the lobster pot attachment. Melt your own butter. Add some lemon. Nothing better.
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Updated: Jun 20, 11:10 AM

Featured Comments

No rush to anoint Rondo
Actually Tony is on-target here! Rondo has a great up-side, but there are still parts of the game where he is AWOL. He is extremely unique with his ball-handling skills and his rebounding is also a strength. The D is also eye-opening most of the time. He is a very confident athlete, hopefully not overconfident. The C's have never had a player quite like him! However, if he thinks he's indispensible, he better think again. This team has to win now while keeping an eye on the future!

CelticFanSinceRussell

In Boston, Bay stars
A four year $60 million dollar contract with a team option of a 5th year is not unreasonable to offer. The Yankees are in need of a left fielder after this season so it's imperative they get him signed because the rate will go up regardless at the end of the season because Steinbrenner will throw stupid money Bay's way even if it's just to drive the cost up for the Sox. Bay has earned it and proven he can play in a big market as well as the post season.

Mhaze

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