The real series starts now

ANAHEIM, Calif. – For the Red Sox, in many ways, the playoffs begin tonight. Jon Lester was the most certain commodity entering these playoffs. Now the Sox venture into the great unknown.

What will they get from Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett?

Lest there be any doubt, thanks to Lester’s brilliance in Game 1, the second game of this American League Division Series is a virtual must win for the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels were the best road team in baseball this year (50-31), but losing twice at home to open a five-game series is borderline suicidal. The good news for the Angels is that they will line up behind Ervin Santana, who has been to the Angels staff what Lester has been to the Red Sox:

Their best pitcher this season, even if he is technically regarded as their No. 2 starter.

As for the Sox, the focus now turns to Matsuzaka and Beckett, the latter of whom is of far greater consequence. If Beckett is entirely healthy, the Red Sox have the best postseason pitcher in all of baseball lined up for Game 3. If he is not, it will be of additional importance for Matsuzaka to perform well in this series, and there is simply no way of knowing what the Red Sox will get from a man who pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win as many as 18 games in a season.

The bad news? Matsuzaka goes first.

The good news? During what manager Terry Francona termed an "aggressive" side session Thursday, Beckett passed with flying colors. He threw 67 pitches, roughly half from the windup, half from the stretch. He threw fastballs, cutters, curves, and changeups. At no point did Beckett alter his delivery or seem limited by his oblique injury. At no point did he really rest, pause or give cause for wonder. (In case you’re wondering, I watched.)

"You're always checking on health and with Josh it's important, too," said Francona, who made the relatively unusual practice to sit in on the session himself. "He needs to know going into a start that he has what is available, what he needs to win, so [Thursday] was a very productive day. Nothing was cut short, [his] fastball had some finish to it, through all his pitches. Now, again, we'll monitor him as we go, but the medical people were out there and I think we were very pleased with the way things went."

Later, the manager even joked about his presence in the bullpen.

"I don’t know why I even went," he said. "We had half of Mass General out there."

On Sunday, in Game 3, half of Mass General still won’t be as important as a full Beckett.

All of this brings us to Matsuzaka, who is nothing short of a riddle despite an 18-3 record and a 2.90 ERA that made him one of the best net-gain pitchers in baseball this season. In Matsuzaka’s 29 starts, the Red Sox went 23-6. Matsuzaka finished tied for fifth in baseball in victories and ranked seventh in ERA, yet he finished 83d in innings, immediately behind the great Dana Eveland. There is simply no way to explain that other than to say that Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate that he has received excellent run support (fifth-best in baseball) and good support from the bullpen.

Even the Red Sox seem to acknowledge that.

(For more on Matsuzaka’s peculiar season, click here.)

"Thankfully, he is 18-3. At the same time, a lot of things had to fall his way," pitching coach John Farrell said recently. "[But] the one thing we'll always refrain from is: while we would like to see greater pitch efficiency, we can't take away or change a style he has had for his entire career for the sake of lower pitch counts. Who's to say he'll [still] have success?"

Translation: He is who he is.

Before this is all interpreted as Dice-bashing, let’s make something clear. By the simple nature of supply and demand, above-average pitching is expensive and Matsuzaka thus far has been worth every penny of the $103 million the Red Sox spent to get him. At the end of the day, over the last two seasons, Matsuzuka has given the Red Sox ample chances to win games while collecting 33 victories, more than any pitcher in baseball in that period, save for Brandon Webb (40), Roy Halladay (36), and CC Sabathia (36).

Just the same, if the Red Sox’ pitching staff is vulnerable this season, the weakness is in the middle. (This is true of most teams.) The most important development in Game 1 was Lester’s ability to take the mound for and complete the bottom of the seventh, giving Francona an array of options and combinations to get through the eighth. Justin Masterson ended up getting the ball, but Francona also had Hideki Okajima and, of course, Jonathan Papelbon if there had been such a need.

So what happens tonight? That is anybody’s guess. Late in July, during his only appearance against the Angels this year, Matsuzaka pitched five shutout innings before getting tattooed in the sixth. The Angels scored six runs in that inning en route to a lopsided victory. If Beckett proves to be less than 100 percent and if Matsuzaka labors tonight, this series could change dramatically. Of course, that is also the nature of postseason play to begin with.

If, if, if.

In baseball, it’s the biggest word every October.