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For free-agent pitchers, it's buyer beware

Posted by Tony Massarotti, Globe Staff November 12, 2008 08:40 AM

Historically speaking, we needn't look far to recognize that pitching often can be as volatile as stocks. For every good long-term pitching deal that pans out, there are seemingly several that do not.

MAZZ'S HOT STOVE SERIES: Continuing today and ending on Nov. 13, the day before free agents can sign with any team, the Globe's Tony Massarotti will tackle an offseason topic of interest to Red Sox fans each day. Check out the schedule below.
  • Tuesday, Nov. 4:
    Shortstop in focus
  • Wednesday, Nov. 5:
    Yankees: Under construction
  • Thursday, Nov. 6:
    Handicapping the field of potential Manny suitors
  • Friday, Nov. 7:
    Top prize: Mark Teixeira
  • Tuesday, Nov. 11:
    Most likely Sox trade partners
  • Wednesday, Nov. 12:
    For free-agent pitching, it's buyer beware
  • Thursday, Nov. 13:
    Tony's best- and worst-case offseason scenarios for the Red Sox and Yankees
  • MORE FROM MAZZ:

  • Sox' 5 biggest offseason questions
  • Player-by-player Sox overview
  • Big names in play
  • Agent could Boras to death
  • Red Sox aren't afraid to be bold
  • Sox look soft in the middle
  • While this year's deep crop of free-agent starters includes A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, CC Sabathia, and Ben Sheets, among several others, all interested parties are encouraged to proceed with caution. History has shown that mediocre pitching (or worse) can carry a very steep price, and nothing can damage a team's payroll structure more than a pitching contract gone bad, depending on the size of the payroll.

    For example:

    • Though the pitching market was thin last offseason, the biggest award went to righthander Carlos Silva, who signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. The possessor of a 55-46 record to that point in his career, Silva promptly went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA last season -- in a pitcher's ballpark, no less -- and still has three years remaining on his deal. He is completely untradeable.
    • In 2006, multiyear deals were given to a cast of starters that included (in alphabetical order):

      Miguel Batista (three years, $25 million)
      Adam Eaton (three years, $24.5m)
      Orlando Hernandez (two years, $12m)
      Kei Igawa (five years, $20m)
      Ted Lilly (four years, $40m)
      Jason Marquis (three years, $21m)
      Daisuke Matsuzaka (six years, $52m)
      Gil Meche (five years, $55m)
      Mark Mulder (two years, $13m)
      Mike Mussina (two years, $23m)
      Vicente Padilla (three years, $33.75m)
      Jason Schmidt (three years, $47m)
      Jeff Suppan (four years, $42m)
      Woody Williams (two years, $12.5m)
      Barry Zito (seven years, $126m)

      Of the pitchers on that list, only Lilly (32-17 for the Cubs), Matsuzaka (33-15 for the Red Sox) and Meche (23-24 with a 3.82 ERA for the Royals) have pitched consistently well, while the remaining pitchers on the list have suffered from varying degrees of injury, inconsistency, ineffectiveness, and ineptitude.

    Looking back, Epstein and the Red Sox do not look so foolish for paying $51.11 million for the negotiating rights to Matsuzaka, who was the youngest notable free agent available on that year's market.

    For the Red Sox, in particular, big pitching contracts have been few and far between during Epstein's tenure. Even the signing of Matt Clement (three years, $25.5 million) was not nearly as debilitating as it could have been, particularly when compared with other pitching contracts signed following the 2004 season. That year, the best deal awarded any starting pitcher (from the team's standpoint) was the four-year, $36 million contract given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to Lowe, who averaged 34 starts and 213 innings while going 54-48 with a 3.59 ERA for a team that consistently had difficulty scoring runs.

    The other pitchers who signed that winter? Pedro Martinez (four years, $53m), Carl Pavano (four years, $40m) and Brad Radke (two years, $18m), all of whom now have careers in varying states of disrepair. (Radke has retired, Martinez may be on his way there, and Pavano made 26 starts over the life of his contract.)

    Get the picture?

    With regard to this year's market, in particular, a major league source has confirmed that the Sox have inquired with agent Scott Boras about Lowe, interest deemed sincere enough that Boras has equipped the Sox with one of his famed marketing portfolios, or "books," on the player's value.

    Meanwhile, Burnett has long been a favorite of owner John Henry, who owned the Marlins when the talented righthander pitched for the club, but his asking price will be so steep that at least one major league general manager believes the Red Sox will not invest the $16 million-$18 million annually that it could take to sign a pitcher who seems motivated only in seasons in which his contract is up. (Before this year, Burnett went 20-16 for the Jays, but pitched just over 300 innings combined in two seasons.)

    As for Sheets, he has a lengthy injury history. And despite Sabathia's reputation for being a horse, one big league coach last season expressed serious concerns regarding the big lefthander's knee and shoulder over the long term, fearing that the pitcher will break down sooner rather than later. All of that makes the 35-year-old Lowe among the most probable targets for the Red Sox -- the pitcher never has been shy about declaring his fondness for Boston and East Coast baseball -- largely because he is the safest and most reliable option, assuming the Sox can get him for what they would term "value." (Nonetheless, he won't come cheaply -- plan on at least $15 million a year.)

    In the interim, expect the Sox to go hard after young Japanese righthander Junichi Tazawa and continue giving opportunities to young pitchers like Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz, the last of whom's wretched 2008 campaign (2-9, 6.75 ERA) still makes him a far more cost-efficient option than someone like Silva. The failure rate of free-agent pitching is one of the biggest reasons Epstein has placed emphasis on the drafting and developing of pitchers, allowing the Sox to throw lavish contracts at people like Mark Teixeira and, to a lesser extent, J.D. Drew.

    As for the bullpen ...

    Many executives in recent years have identified the bullpen as their greatest challenge, largely because the performance of relievers can fluctuate dramatically on a year-to-year basis. Relievers generally pitch a fraction of the innings that starters do, meaning the sample size is much smaller. A hot streak subsequently can skew the performance, particularly in roles where intangibles (mental toughness, etc.) can play such large roles.

    Regardless, most every executive agrees that effective relievers must share one common trait: an ability to consistently throw strikes. Though there are no absolutes -- David Aardsma has trouble in this area, for instance -- but the Red Sox generally adhere to this belief, explaining the signings of, among others, Keith Foulke (2003), Hideki Okajima (2006), and Mike Timlin (2002).

    According to one Sox official, here are other elements the club looks for in its relievers:

    • A repertoire that includes two or more pitches deemed "average" or "above average" by a scout or evaluator. For example, Jonathan Papelbon throws an effective splitter to go along with his fastball. Over the years, Manny Delcarmen has developed an excellent changeup to go along with a power fastball (with which he sometimes lacks command) and an inconsistent curve. Hideki Okajima, when on top of his game, has an extremely effective split/changeup and can throw his curveball for strikes at will. (Okajima's fastball is average, but he generally locates it with precision.)
    • A strikeout rate that is average to above-average, or an uncanny ability to induce ground balls. While power is one thing -- who doesn't like strikeouts? -- ground balls are another. When Timlin first arrived in Boston, he could pound the strike zone while possessing strikeout ability and a power sinker. If and when Justin Masterson can more consistently throw strikes, he will have the same assets.

    Given the erratic nature of most relievers, the Sox are not likely to pursue many, particularly those who come with high price tags. While someone like lefthander Brian Fuentes would be a nice fit in the Boston bullpen -- Fuentes would give the Sox a power setup man alongside Papelbon and someone who could close in a pinch, all while allowing Masterson to start -- Fuentes will likely command big dollars and seek an opportunity to close. The Sox always have had an interest in veteran Doug Brocail, historically a good strike-thrower, though his performance slipped some last year at age 41. And if the Sox are looking for middle relief help, Epstein could bring back Brandon Lyon, an excellent strike-thrower who was miscast as a closer (for at least part of the time) in Arizona.

    As always, trades are a possibility, though the Sox generally are in decent shape in their bullpen, where the performance improved considerably last year after Masterson joined the group. Once that happened, manager Terry Francona had setup options (Masterson, Okajima) to go along with the luxury of two lefthanders (Okajima, Javier Lopez) and a young, powerful middle reliever (Delcarmen). The Red Sox also have more power arms on the way (Daniel Bard), suggesting that the club's overall interest in free-agent pitching this offseason will be minimal.

    Given the recent history on the free-agent market, after all, Epstein appears content to let other clubs make the mistakes.

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    56 comments so far...
    1. I recently read that for today's market, starting pitchers command about $1million per win. Will Lowe reach that level if he signs with the Red Sox? And the rumors are that the NYYs will offer over $20 million per year for CC. Will he be worth that because he provides them with a dependable long term #1 starter?
      Finally, I also read that teams should start trying to develop the reliable 150 inning per year (pitching 2 -3 per week) relief pitcher. A pitcher like that would be almost as valuable as a near top of the rotation starting pitcher. Do you agree and can Masterson be the prototype for that pitcher?

      Posted by Bashtree November 12, 08 10:52 AM
    1. I think the Sox are all set at setup and closer. Papelbon is reliable, Okajima and Masterson can fill the gaps in the seventh and eigth with Masterson playing the Scot Shields role of one inning of great relief or two innings of heart attack relief. Delcarmen and Lopez give the Sox a lefty on lefty matchup pitcher and a strikeout inducing pitcher to bring in for situations in the 7th or 8th or to fill the gaps in a route in the 6th inning. What the Sox really need this offseason is a long reliever/mop up guy. If they bring up Hansack or Pauley to fill the role it can be done cheaply, if not, a guy like Lyon or even Chan Ho Park could be that long relief/mop up/spot starter that they are missing.

      Posted by Dan November 12, 08 11:28 AM
    1. I have no problem letting the Yankees sign pitchers to huge contracts and watching them fail.

      See Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa

      Posted by Mike November 12, 08 11:30 AM
    1. I've got a good feeling about combining Sheets with the Red Sox' commitment to keeping their pitcher's arms healthy and strong. If they are able to scoop him up for a relatively low price, I'd be very excited at the prospects of him having some of the best years of his career in Boston. I'm not going to hold my breath for this to happen, though.

      Posted by Andrew S. November 12, 08 11:40 AM
    1. How many times is it that traded pitchers come back to haunt you.The Sox are in fine shape with their circumstance.Even the field is good.But,they can improve.They have to think young and healthy.When you have an abundance of talent and a luxury of farm,you are healthy.Don't disturb it,it'll bless you.But,they still have an impending dilema here,I believe....AGE........now's the time,if possible to get rid of age and get some powerful,youthful speed.The thing is to make other buyers believe,because you are the Red Sox,the smartest organization in all baseball,that you have some great talent for sale.Then go get YOUTH..TIEXIERA !!!

      Posted by Jack ....Melbourne,Fla November 12, 08 11:54 AM
    1. If you are going to waste 150 innings on Masterson....make him a starter. He is younger than any of the free agents, his potential hasn't been reached, and he certainly has shown the mental make-up. I said this last year, I will say it again, I think Bucholz is a headcase. Once he threw that no-hitter against Baltimore, everyone around here thought he was the next Pedro. Trade him while his value is still good. If you want 150 innings from a reliever, use Wakefield. I would like to see Lowe signed. I like a rotation of:
      Beckett
      Lester
      Matsuzaka
      Lowe
      Masterson
      Then sign Lyon as a set up guy. If he stinks, by mid year give Bard the same shot this year that Masterson had last year. I just like Masterson's stuff and make-up way too much to waste him in the pen right now.

      Posted by steven November 12, 08 11:56 AM
    1. LOWE WOULD BE A GREAT RE-ADDITION TO THE STARTING ROTATION. I THING THAT JOHN HAS MADE GREAT STRIDES WITH OUR OUR BULLPEN. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BUILD FROM WITHIN. IT MAKES FOR A GREAT BUSINESS MODEL. I SAY THAT BECAUSE THE GAME THE BROOKLYN DODGERS PLAYED IN MY YOUTH WAS THE GAME.

      Posted by Al B. November 12, 08 11:58 AM
    1. I thought that John Henry was extremely incensed when Derek Lowe brought his girlfriend instead of his wife to the championship party. He won't soon forget that!

      Posted by Ken G November 12, 08 12:06 PM
    1. Priority 1. sign Texeira and move Youk to his natural position 3B
      2. Make a trade for one of the Rangers young catchers
      3. Trade Lowell for midrelief
      4. Sign defensive utility man to replace Cora
      Keep CoCo as the 4th outfielder

      1.Ellsbury/Crisp
      2.Pedroia
      3.Oritz
      4.Teixeira
      5.Youkilis
      6.Bay
      7.Drew
      8.Lowrie
      9.Tek/Other

      Posted by rice key November 12, 08 12:06 PM
    1. Priority 1. sign Texeira and move Youk to his natural position 3B
      2. Make a trade for one of the Rangers young catchers
      3. Trade Lowell for midrelief
      4. Sign defensive utility man to replace Cora
      Keep CoCo as the 4th outfielder

      1.Ellsbury/Crisp
      2.Pedroia
      3.Oritz
      4.Teixeira
      5.Youkilis
      6.Bay
      7.Drew
      8.Lowrie
      9.Tek/Other

      Posted by rice key November 12, 08 12:07 PM
    1. I would like to see Derek Lowe back in Boston!!

      Posted by JohnnyB November 12, 08 12:12 PM
    1. Pavano and Clement remain the quintessential AL East cautionary tales. And then there's Barry Zito out in San Fran... Look for very little activity from Theo here. Lowe or Byrd maybe, if the price is right. Someone better to replace Timlin. That's about it.

      Posted by Brian W. November 12, 08 12:17 PM
    1. Off subject but this looks like the only Sox article today...

      Has anyone offered up any reason as to why Luis Alicea was let go? I thought it might be to put Alex Cora over there. Anybody got anything better?

      Posted by Possum Pete November 12, 08 12:19 PM
    1. In reagrds to comment number two...Don't keep thinking that they want to keep Masterson as a set-up man. He was being trained to be a long-term starter and thats what the sox are going to keep doing unless they are desperate again. He is not a fixer piece for the bull-pen.

      Posted by Matt November 12, 08 12:42 PM
    1. I want the Sox to make a deal to obtain JJ Hardy. End of story.

      Posted by Will November 12, 08 12:42 PM
    1. I don't think the Sox will sign any of the big ticket Pitchers,and if they do get in the fray it'll only be to drivprice up to make sure no matter who the Yankees want they'll have to pay through the nose!!! I do believe the Sox will sign one of the Japanese Pitchers availible.I also think that Teixeira will either be a Red Sox player or at least one of the richest players in the game and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets a bigger deal than Manny.

      Posted by Sportsbozo1 November 12, 08 01:05 PM
    1. What, has Derek Lowe run out of cheap women on the West Coast to have affairs with? Or has he gotten himself thrown out of every bar and nightclub from Pasadena to San Diego? I guess he figures that the bars in Boston miss him.

      Posted by Pete G. a.k.a. "Sofachi" November 12, 08 01:09 PM
    1. If the Red Sox can let thier pitchers pitch more than 6 innings constently ,,the bullpen may not have many issues. They have to get away with that "pitch count". Good pitchers should be able to hack it for more than 6 inning(DICEK) so the bullpen wont get overworked.

      I see them going after Lowe..only.

      Posted by John November 12, 08 01:09 PM
    1. I agree that this management team will not be players for the top starting pitching talent. History tells us its too risky. The sox will lean more towards a rehab project (see: Brad Penny ; Freddy Garcia) who has upside. They will do the same with relievers as well. They have historically passed on higher priced FA's that they like, such as Linebrink, fearing the volitility of the position. So I suspect they will be in on Brocail, Lyon, Cruz , Affelt, etc as opposed to a big name reliever. That being said, if the rotation and bullpen will not be significantly upgraded, then you have to figure the offense will have to be addressed. Correct?

      Posted by Fisk 27 November 12, 08 01:17 PM
    1. Would not pay 15 million a year for Lowe.

      Posted by Matt Jersey City NJ November 12, 08 02:08 PM
    1. If we can get someone decent for DECLEARTHEM I would take it, Manny being Manny is not a dependable relief man. But bring back Lowe

      Posted by GORDON November 12, 08 02:21 PM
    1. ya don't hold your breath bud he wont come cheap and I think it's too much of a Pavano situation. Remember how damn close we were to "bringing him home"? I think buyer beware on him even though he is a sexy name. I think we should go after Lowe or just bring up the farm for the 4 or 5.

      Posted by Ryan November 12, 08 02:41 PM
    1. It's a good thing to have pitchers who throw strikes, but not when many of those strikes disappear over the fences. That seems to have been a problem this past season.

      Posted by pennstatedad November 12, 08 03:07 PM
    1. I agree they should pursue Sheets over Lowe. Assuming of course both can be had for relatively the same price. Big if?? No question Sheets has had injuries, but he is younger and has a higher upside than Lowe. Much like Beckett, if Sheets is healthy he can dominate. Lowe on the other hand has been very consistent and durable. Problem is, he does not dominate a game with great frequency and at 36 he has probably seen his best days pass by or will before his next contract is up. The Sox have a quality starting rotation as it stands and in my mind to upgrade they need to do it with players that exceed average. Lowe is two ticks above average on the regular, Sheets when healthy, is two ticks below great. There is a big difference.

      Posted by LB34 November 12, 08 03:14 PM
    1. As a fan, I love the way that they have handled their pitchers. Dice-K has won games. That's all we can ask of him. He has his down moments, but he has proven to be solid. I for one love the idea of Derek Lowe coming back. Why? He eats innings. He has rarely been injured. When he is on, he is great. Boston's defense will help him win games.

      Unlike Sheets or Sabathia, we know that Lowe will come through in the post-season.

      Posted by Harv November 12, 08 03:20 PM
    1. I was always fond of Derek Lowe - I love double plays. I may be remembering wrong, but wasn't there something off the field that contributed to their decision not to resign him in '04? Not to go into specifics cos I don't know if it was true, but the Sox have always been consistent in such things throughout the years. If talks now have progressed to this point, I'm assuming it's all in the past?

      Posted by DuhChief November 12, 08 03:40 PM
    1. do not want any part of derek lowe and 15 mil annually.. i think masterson or bucholz fill the 4\5 spot in rotation wakefield in spot start and long relief........... LET THE KIDS PITCH!!!!!

      Posted by ohno57 November 12, 08 03:41 PM
    1. Who's won more playoff games?
      Lowe
      Sabathia
      Or
      Sheets

      Answer:(Lowe)

      Posted by Hoosickkid November 12, 08 04:23 PM
    1. "Who's won more playoff games?
      Lowe
      Sabathia
      Or
      Sheets

      Answer:(Lowe)"

      Who's pitched in more playoff games??
      Answer? Lowe
      This rationale is completely useless.....thats like asking who has won more playoff games, Pedro Martinez or Jon Lester? We all know Pedro has, but would you rather have Pedro than Lester right now? I wouldn't.
      To the person who said they want Bulcholz or Masterson.....that still leaves one spot in the rotation open, unless you want Wakefield in there....and I will pass on that. Look:
      Beckett
      Lester
      Matsuzaka
      Bucholz
      Masterson
      I am sorry, but I think only one of the last two should be in the rotation during the season, and I say trade Bucholz while he still has value....the kid doesnt have the mental capacity for the game.....whoopie...he threw a no hitter....how has he done since then? Take Bucholz out of that rotation and add Lowe, I think you have the best rotation in the AL.

      Posted by steven November 12, 08 04:52 PM
    1. JJ Hardy would look great at SS for the SOX! Brewers looking for young pitchers - would Theo trade one of the young arms for a 26 year old stud SS?

      Posted by RedSoxFaninPhilly November 12, 08 05:04 PM
    1. I can't believe you get paid for this. What an insult to lump C.C. Sabathia in with two of the most brittle pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. Sabathia has been a HORSE, and DOMINANT.

      As far as your list of pitchers who may not have lived up to his contract. Only one of those pitchrs won 20 games during their contract,....ONLY ONE. Mike Mussina. Over the last 3 years Josh Beckett is 48-28 and Mussina is 48-26.

      Posted by LouieTheLip November 12, 08 05:39 PM
    1. SIGN LOWE

      Posted by LGRS November 12, 08 05:53 PM
    1. Lowe is a big game pitcher. I will not soon forget his performance in Oakland in Gane 7, ALDS 2003. That was fantastic, probably the best relief pitching I've ever seen. I can still see that tailing fastball catching just enough of the plate for strike three. He came up really big in 2004 too. Age might be a factor, but his extramarital stuff is his problem not ours. I say we give him a try, maybe he's grown up a little.

      Posted by Johnny Beisbol November 12, 08 05:55 PM
    1. Lowe will take 15 per for four to sign. That 's something you do when you are weak at starter. While you can always use more pitching, we need other things more. You can't bank on JD for more than half the season(always the rap) and Lowell Ortiz Youk and Bay just isn't as much as you need out of the heart to prevail against the best of the rest. We need someone added who has few hitting weaknesses. We also need to sort out catcher and short. So, I would not welcome any big bucks for any of the pitchers on the market. I'd spend elsewhere, eating contract money where necessary to make the right trades...( I also think it's way too early to give up on Buchholz)

      Posted by justabad November 12, 08 06:38 PM
    1. i can't see Henry wanting Lowe back.

      Posted by Tom November 12, 08 06:49 PM
    1. I have to say this about DLowe: He was always the first Red Sox to go out and chat with the fans, before the game. I've attended may away games, and always saw him extending himself to the Nation. (So, he is sincere when he claims that he loves Boston.) Of course, he's a fine pitcher.

      However, the Sox needs are bat and bullpen, bullpen, and bullpen. They won't be able to utilise many of the young arms in a starter's role (i.e. tryout) without a bullpen that can limit the damage and/or hold down the fort, simply put. The Sox need at least two premium bullpen arms.


      Posted by DjM November 12, 08 07:42 PM
    1. Sure am glad that Theo runs this team! I thjink he sticks with the kids and keeps the payroll down this year, after all they did not raise ticket prices.

      Posted by Steve November 12, 08 09:26 PM
    1. There is no game 7 in ALDS! I think that there rotation is fine. They don't need Texira call up Lars Anderson! But the middle relief needs to get alot better. I think they should trade Lowell for J.C Romero from the Phillies sign Lyon and we are good. here is the rotation of next season.
      1. Beckett
      2. Matzuaka3. Lester 4. Wakfield 5. Bucholz

      Posted by Redsox man November 12, 08 09:29 PM
    1. What is the big deal about Lowe??? The guy is a head case, hence the need for a daily visit to a sports psychologist. Does ANYONE remember his problems he had here before and during '04??? He got that nice, big contract with the Dodgers because of his performance in the '04 playoffs. Remember, he was delegated to the 'pen because he couldn't keep his sinker down. I'll take anyone besides Lowe, but we don't need another starter!

      Posted by Tim from West Brookfield November 12, 08 09:29 PM
    1. there wasnt a game 7 against Oak

      Lowe's cool, I always liked him, but if they didnt want him at 31 for 9m a year, does this makes sense? I wonder

      how much his numbers would suffer, remember he's pitched in a large park against AAA lineups from that division for the last 4 years, is he another Clemens? better at 36 than he was at 30 or 31??
      just ask

      Posted by sergio November 12, 08 09:45 PM
    1. Masterson appears to have the head to go along with the arm to pitch successfully in the hotbed of Beantowne Baseball. I'm not so sure the same can be said about Bucholz. For some players, the wiring just isn't what works well in this environment. Before this becomes too apparent, I say trade him for value. He's a Texan, isn't he? How about sending him back to the Lone Star State in return for Salty?

      Posted by teachdad46 November 12, 08 09:56 PM
    1. The current team with few changes can make it to the playoffs again. Doing that is not my major concern. I stil believe they would have made it to the World Series if injuries had not handicapped them (Lowell, Beckett, Ortiz primarily). So, the way I see it, the Sox need players who can be standouts during pressure playoffs, not just a few average players here or there to get them there. That's why I say they need Teixeira in the middle of the lineup, an overpowering starting pitcher (not sure who, maybe that Japanese pitcher, Sheets, or a young home-grown guy starting like Masterson, Bucholtz, Bard, etc...) The only other real needs I see are a young catcher to groom while Tek finsihes his career and a vet clutch power hitter off the bench.

      Posted by Rich November 12, 08 10:42 PM
    1. Mazz:

      Do you think it wise for the Sox to invest $15mil./season to sign Derek Lowe? If Lowe is worth that, what are Josh Beckert and John Lester worth? The Sox would be crazy to pay so much for a 35 year old, mediocre pitcher. If the Sox are going to spend that kind of money, I'd rather see them pass on Lowe...and go $20-22mil. per season on Texiera, or roll dice on younger pitchers, such as AJ Burnett and/or Ben Sheets.

      Posted by TexasPat November 12, 08 11:48 PM
    1. even though i love him, i say no to lowe. first off hes old. people say he pitched well in LA, which he did but you have to look at his division hes in. not even close to the AL East. the hitters in our division i think would be all over his sinker. and i dont know why people are just throwing wake out of the rotation. hes a great number 5 starter. i do say trade one of the young pitchers to get a catcher from texas. we do need to get younger there. as of right now i dont see anyone taking lowell yes he was the world series mvp but hes old, his contract is huge and he gets injured. i dont see theo making any big movies this offseason. im sorry to say, but who knows thats why im not the GM!

      Posted by Jeff November 13, 08 12:21 AM
    1. "Sabathia has been a HORSE, and DOMINANT. "
      What do you mean when he went 1-3 with a 9+ era in his four playoff starts?

      Posted by Mike from the North End November 13, 08 02:14 AM
    1. Derek Lowe at 15 million...the Red Sox would be nuts....no f**** way...

      Posted by Harris November 13, 08 06:14 AM
    1. Shortstop and catcher.these are the areas the sox must urgently fill.resign teck and get Salty out of Texas.Furcal signed as FA or a deal to get Hardy.Teck can mentor Salty and finish his career in Boston and then stay in the organization with a future that could some day have him managing the team.Make all out push to get Tex in FA market. Trade Lowell to Philly if Tex is signed.

      Posted by caper55 November 13, 08 08:14 AM
    1. 1. Sign Texeira - this is the top priority for the Sox.
      2. Trade Lowell and return Youk to third base.
      3. Keep Coco Crisp! I'm not at all convinced that Ellsbury is ready for full-time duty. Coco is a better defender and I don't see much difference in talent at the plate. Jacoby has wheels, though.
      4. I love Derek Lowe, but...too old and too expensive. But...maybe, because he does make the rotation stronger.
      5. Reduce Varitek's workload tp 80-90 games. I think he is worn out. Sign a catcher from Texas.

      Posted by Anonymous November 13, 08 09:03 AM
    1. The wild card in this is Michael Bowden. How fast can he come up and contribute, that's the question. He's got great stuff and if he's ready to come up and make a difference after a short stint in AAA last year, I could see that playing a part. Give him a couple months in Pawtucket this spring and get by with Wake in the rotation then see about bringing him up if you don't want to spend the $15 mil a year on Lowe.

      Posted by Jeff November 13, 08 10:51 AM
    1. This may sound silly to almost most of you, but I like the idea of starting both Masterson and Paplebon. Trade Buchholz and Bowden or Lowell for a reliable closer assuming that you could get one. Then you have the best starting 5 in the majors. the heck with D Lowe, he gets hit hard in Fenway once his sinker doesn't sink.

      Lester
      Papplebon
      Becket
      Masterson
      Dice K

      This could possible be the best 5 starting pitchers ever in the history of Baseball. If, somehow, the Sox can get Texiera, there won't be much of a need for a closer.

      Just an idea.

      Posted by Ballyale November 13, 08 11:43 AM
    1. Bringing Lowe back is fine...but on the Red Sox he'd be the 4th/5th starter, and for $15 mil that's way too steep for an old NL pitcher, altho his ERA is still low. Talking him up to drive up the price for other teams is smart tho. I like the Buckholz for Salti trade idea but otherwise bring Buckholz back. He works out his issues and gets back to form that's a lot cheaper than any of those overrated FA jokers. Sign the Japanese kid, bring up Bard or put Masterson back in the rotation if need be. Four much better alternatives.

      Posted by Danalogue November 13, 08 12:17 PM
    1. Kick the tires on Ben Sheets. If he'll take 3yrs/$36mm, then sign him and go hard after Teixeira. Sign Juan Cruz as a power arm for the bullpen. Sign a Mark Loretta, Ramon Vasquez, or Felipe Lopez type as utility infielder. Sign Rocco Baldelli as the 4th outfielder/platoon partner for Drew and Ellsbury. Trade Crisp for a prospect or more bullpen help. Eat half of Lugo's salary and trade him for a prospect or bench depth. Trade for a young catcher. Either Teagarden or Salty. If the price is Buchholz, maybe they have to do it. We will still have Bowden and Masterson around as young starters if we need them. Re-sign Varitek for 2yrs/$12-15mm. This sounds like a lot to do, but once you secure your top priorities of Teixeira and Sheets, everything else has a way of falling into place.

      Posted by Frank November 13, 08 01:24 PM
    1. Yes Mike C.C. Sabathia the2007 Cy Young winner, and a 2008 Cy Young candidate has been DOMINANT. There has been MVP talk about Sabathia over the last few seasons and he has carried 2 different teams to the playoffs the last 2 years. He spent 7 1/2 years in the AL and left with a 3.7 era.

      Yes Mike he has been a HORSE averaging 220 innings over the last 4 years. Anybody who watches baseball and not just Red Sox games understands that C.C. Sabathia is a throw back. Did you not see what he did down the stretch for his team this year. Nothing short of remarkable.

      The playoff woes are a small sample and have a lot more to do with circumstance.

      Posted by LouieTheLip November 13, 08 03:57 PM
    1. Sabathia is a great regular season pitcher... He can help a team get to the playoffs... He might suck in the playoffs, but at least he can help get you there.

      Posted by CC's brother November 13, 08 09:43 PM
    1. Am I the only one who thinks we need serious upgrades at SS and C - get rid of Lugo, bring back Orlando Cabrerra and trade for Kelly Shoppach.

      Takes away the need to sign big buck Tixeria and maintains an amazing line up.

      Posted by Redsox Dubai November 14, 08 01:44 AM
    1. No way on Lowe for 60 mil with historic blister problems. This is a smoke screen from the Lowe camp not the Redsox camp. In the AL East he is a 11-11 pitcher with a era of over 5 a game. Buyer beware of inflated numbers pitching against week NL lineups and not facing a DH. At a minimum a major National league pitcher should get 3 strikeouts per game against the other pitcher. If you want to give someone 15x4=60 million, give it to Ben Sheets. A healthy Sheets has way more upside. I say buy Sheets as an insurance policy against and injured Beckett. Then if anyone goes down, masterson, buckholz, bowden, or Hansack can step in for a spot start and the season is not lost. It all comes down to who would be a better #4 man in a AL East rotation and that is clearly Sheets. Lowe is average #4 and Sheets is well above average for a #4 in the AL.

      Posted by Sean Galgay November 18, 08 03:59 PM
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    Tony Massarotti

    is taking a few days off to celebrate the arrival of summer.

    0 Comments »
    Updated: Jun 20, 10:42 AM

    About Mazz

    Tony Massarotti is a Globe sportswriter and has been writing about sports in Boston for the last 19 years. A lifelong Bostonian, Massarotti graduated from Waltham High School and Tufts University. He was voted the Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by his peers in 2000 and 2008 and has been a finalist for the award on several other occasions. He'll be using this forum to provide information, insight, and analysis on the Boston sports scene.

    Tony's Top 5

    Things to eat during the summer

    5
    Ice cream. Obvious, right? But we’re not talking about Haagen-Dazs. Go to a local stand and forgo the chain stores.
    4
    Spaghetti al limone. Do a Google search for the simple recipe and use linguine. Fast. Refreshing. Different.
    3
    Corn on the cob. Brush it with a little olive oil or butter and lightly salt. Then grill it. Trust me on this one.
    2
    Clams. Bellies or strips, steamed or fried. We prefer the steamahs, but go to your local shack and choose.
    1
    Lobster. If have a gas grill, buy the lobster pot attachment. Melt your own butter. Add some lemon. Nothing better.
    0 Comments »
    Updated: Jun 20, 11:10 AM

    Featured Comments

    No rush to anoint Rondo
    Actually Tony is on-target here! Rondo has a great up-side, but there are still parts of the game where he is AWOL. He is extremely unique with his ball-handling skills and his rebounding is also a strength. The D is also eye-opening most of the time. He is a very confident athlete, hopefully not overconfident. The C's have never had a player quite like him! However, if he thinks he's indispensible, he better think again. This team has to win now while keeping an eye on the future!

    CelticFanSinceRussell

    In Boston, Bay stars
    A four year $60 million dollar contract with a team option of a 5th year is not unreasonable to offer. The Yankees are in need of a left fielder after this season so it's imperative they get him signed because the rate will go up regardless at the end of the season because Steinbrenner will throw stupid money Bay's way even if it's just to drive the cost up for the Sox. Bay has earned it and proven he can play in a big market as well as the post season.

    Mhaze

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