A slow burn to the Hot Stove
The World Series ended 35 days ago. November has vanished. And yet a potentially explosive baseball offseason has yet to truly begin, in Boston or anywhere else.
What gives?
Six days before the official start of the annual winter meetings in Las Vegas -- in this case, what happens in Vegas is announced to the world -- the 2008-09 offseason continues to move at a crawl. While the Red Sox have traded Coco Crisp and reached an agreement with Junichi Tazawa, major issues in and beyond Boston have yet to be resolved, leading to an array of explanations and theories.
In all probability, the stagnation in baseball is likely a combination of several factors, including:
1. The economy
Now that we are officially in a recession, the question is obvious: How does that affect baseball? The game has been booming in recent years, attendance records being set annually. Roughly a year ago at this time, Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 million per season) and Johan Santana ($22.9 million per) signed the biggest deals ever awarded a positional player and pitcher.Given the state of the economy, teams need to start planning now. Beyond ticket sales -- likely to decrease? -- teams must consider whether corporate deals (such as naming rights, a la Citi Field) will lose value (or worse) in coming years. That means teams might not have the same revenue streams in, say, 2011 as they do now, which means that a $15 million annual salary paid today could hurt a lot more in two or three years.
As such, teams are undoubtedly reluctant to enter into long contracts, especially given the disasters known as Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million) and Jason Schmidt (3 years, $47 million), among others. Last month, commissioner Bud Selig summoned former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker to address teams during the winter meetings. Presumably, Volcker did not instruct the clubs to recklessly throw around money like a bunch of drunken sailors.
2. CC Sabathia
During the season, at least one Red Sox official expressed concern about Sabathia's ability to hold up over the long term, but let's try to see how the rest of the baseball world sees him. Sabathia is 28 and listed at roughly 6 foot 7 and 275 pounds. Over the last two seasons, he is a combined 36-17 with a 2.95 ERA in 494 innings pitched. In 2007, he was the American League Cy Young Award winner.No matter how much baseball has changed over the years, pitching still wins. That means that Sabathia is affecting the market on all levels because is probably the No. 1 commodity. Already, the New York Yankees have made Sabathia a reported six-year, $140 million offer -- that's a whopping $23.3 million per season -- though the pitcher clearly has reservations about pitching for New York. (Otherwise, wouldn't he have accepted by now?)
Just because Sabathia is a pitcher, do not fall into the trap of thinking that he affects only other pitchers on the market. For example: The Los Angeles Angels, like the Yankees, are also suitors for Sabathia; like the Yankees, the Angels have interest in Mark Teixeira, too. Los Angeles probably doesn't have the money to sign both Sabathia and Teixeira, so Sabathia is holding up an array signings, from Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett to Teixeira and Pat Burrell.
3. Compensation
Big name free agents are one thing, but what about the lesser guys? A team like the Cleveland Indians isn't necessarily chasing the biggest fish, after all, so logic suggests that some lesser signings and maneuvers should have taken place. Yet, barring, say, Jeremy Affeldt, the market has been relatively slow there, too.Why? As much as people like to argue that players like Sabathia and Teixeira "set the market" for lesser players, that is only partly true. At this stage, most everyone knows a player's approximate value. With less expensive free agents, the greater issue becomes compensation in the form of draft picks, which most teams are reluctant to sacrifice.
In that regard, last night was a big step. By midnight, teams had to offer (or not) arbitration to their own free agents. (For example, the Red Sox had to decide whether to offer arbitration to, among others, Jason Varitek. They did so.) Once arbitration is offered, depending on the "rating" of the player, some players require forfeiture of a draft pick by any team that signs them.
In short, here's what that means: If you're a small- or middle-market team, you are not likely to sign a player before Dec. 1 because you don't want to give up a draft pick. So while the big-market clubs are waiting for the big players to sign, the small- and middle-market teams are waiting for compensation to be determined. Talk about a bottleneck.
4. Scott Boras
All agents would be wise to preach patience at this time of year, but the California-based Boras takes negotiations to a different level. Nobody can drag out discussions like the man who might as well be the Merchant of Venice Beach. Boras waits even when there is nothing to wait for, preying on the insecurities and anxieties of team officials. In that way, he is a master.The closer we get to spring training, the more desperate teams become.
With regard to someone like Lowe, Boras's job is easy. Once Sabathia signs, the teams who lose out on Sabathia immediately could become more aggressive suitors for someone like Lowe. In the case of someone like Varitek, for whom the market is decidedly less active -- true discussions with the Sox have yet to even begin -- Boras is waiting to see how the market develops (if at all) and how teams respond.
Earlier this week, an executive from one major league team said Boras likes to wait until the winter meetings to conduct much of his business because he can more effectively play one team off the other. Like it or not, Boras is a central figure every offseason because of his stable of talent, from Lowe and Rodriguez to J.D. Drew, Varitek, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Just as the road to any World Series almost always goes through New York or Boston, the road to any signing travels past the Merchant of Venice Beach.
5. Collusion?
Agents rarely make this claim on the record, of course, but they always wonder: Are the owners conspiring? In most cases, accusations of the like are nothing more than paranoia. But given the past behavior of major league owners and the measures to which some will go to manage costs, there is always the possibility that something sinister is taking place.Especially when the former chairman of the Fed speaks to them as a group.
For as much venom as is frequently directed at players for being selfish, egocentric and out of touch, the owners can be richer and more spoiled. ("Millionaires against billionaires," is how one agent puts it.) Owners are just as capable of greed and self-indulgence, though most of them don't lead nearly the public lives of their employees.
The ones that do -- like Mark Cuban, for instance -- draw our ire as easily as Manny Ramirez does.
The point? Let's not rule out the possibility that owners are being difficult and unreasonable, too. As always, it takes two to tango.
What do you think is the main reason for the sluggish start to the Hot Stove season? Let us know by voting in our survey or posting a note in the comments section.
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It's the Economy, Stupid
Oh sure, the owners are all calling each other and discussing free agents. Oiy.
E C O N O M Y with a very small side of Boras.
I learned nothing new from this article. Thanks for coming strong w/ the obvious.
JD ... easy killer. Save that kind of hate for the Yankees.
Has any team refused to deal with any player represented by Mr. Boras?
Glad it is not me doing the negotiations. I am old school. Do you want to play for me? If yes, what is going to take to get it done? If it is within offer counter offer do it and move on. But.... then what do I know??
I am a great beliver in the law of unintended consequences. The consequence of changing the way that clubs can deal with free agents now means that a crop of guys who are type As get handled entirely differently. Why sign a guy offered arbitration if you can sign one of the same use to you for the same money and not give up a draft pick.
We may wait until Christmas this year because of the late start and the Domino Effect that this year's crop of free agents represents.
It think perhaps it is a combination of things. A: Economy influencing owners to possibly collude to keep $'s down. (actually who can blame them?).
B: SCOTT BORAS: For the players he is great, for Baseball and fans, I think he is truly evil. IF EVER there was one man responsible for driving the costs of ticket sales up, and the insane amounts of money paid to Baseball players..(a game folks) it is BORAS!
C: GREED! yes Greed on the part of both players and owners.
Really however if you were in either the shoes of player or owner you would probably be exactly the same! As would I!.
Paying a small fortune for someone to hit a baseball (Texiera) is nuts!! Baseball needs to scale back soon, like maybe cut the ticket & concession prices!
it's gotta be the economy
It's the Stupid, Economy
He isn't stupid for stating that one of the factors in the free agent market is the economy.
eventually the baseball "Bubble" will burst also.
eventually the baseball "Bubble" will burst also.
Mazz hit the head on the nail on all fronts. Good article for those that don't follow the game and the inner workings. I just don't understand some people on here being so critical.
Mazz... you gotta bring more to the dance than this.
Am I the only one that thinks the picture of Mazz looks a lot like the charicter Benjamin Linus from LOST??? I think Mazz is lost on this one...
Some of you guys need to read up on Paul Begala and James Carville.
Agents, lawyers and owners are the main cause of game inflation. Hmmm......We fans can bring costs down when we strike against the owners and the players. That will be the only way, or a sluggish economy that will keep fans from going to games. One way or another, the owners and the players need to realize that there will come a point when we will not take their greedy crap anymore. Like right now!!!! Enough. You play a kids game and expect millions. Maybe us fans need to put all of them on an allowance like we do our kids. That goes for agents too!
If the Economy is so bad why are people being trampled in super LOW income areas by people looking to spend THEIR money at record paces...and Black Friday was more lucritive for business then it has been for a few years.
Dont be fooled by the Media. Banks and the Auto Industry are in bad economic shape because of bad business and greedy CEO's looking to buy a 2nd Corporate Jet, so thats causes a dip in the Market.
The Baseball FA market has nothing to do with the "bad economy" which will turn right around once the Media has who they want in as president.
Once the market is set by the big payout from either CC or Texiera the ball will drop and the market will go crazy as always! This happens every year. They wait for a big contract so the rest can compare and compete against it. Boras is still trying to use last years Catcher FA market to get Tek a big contract, thats why he hasnt signed. and it goes for everyone else too.
How is this not obvious to everyone, Stupid.
What about draft picks? If a team signs CC or Teixera, they'll have to give up a few early round draft picks. Those drafts picks could be the next Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, or John Lester. Those players are stars and cheap. Teams are less inclined to throw money at free agents when they know they could get a younger, cheaper player who is as good in the draft.
Professional Baseball is "Near-Recession Proof" -- with attendance records being smashed and record sell-outs across the league.
Even with increased ticket-prices.
The HotStove is burning painfully slow because of two words: Scott Boras.
Notice all free agents unsigned with big names are his ??
End of discussion.
I guess we'll just have to wait to see how long it is before the government needs to provide a bailout plan for Major League Baseball!
How about the team that won the AL East and went to the WS on a $45 mil payroll? Other owners I'm sure took notice.
scott boras is pricing his big name free agents out of the market. Angels have already cut-off negotiations with Teixera because they know they're not going to offer him an 8-10 year deal. And any team that does is nuts! No player deserves more than a 5 year deal. Boras set V-tek's price at Posada's deal and look how well that turned out for the Yanks. An injured player who will most likely NOT be doing what they initially paid him to do, catch. Boras has set Manny's price at what A-Rod and Bonds signed their last deals for. Last time I checked, A-Rod was 6 years younger than Manny is right now when he signed his last extension, and Barry Bonds was on steroids. Not a chance Manny gets more than a 2 year deal.
I actually think the reason it's slow is because of Sabathia. Once he signs, things will open up. Though I think Scott Boras is smoking crack if he thinks Tek is going to get a big contract
I think that the success that teams have had recently with less expensive home grown players is causing some of the big market organizations to re-think how they spend theri money.
1. The Economy - Nope ... Baseball owners and of course the union have never been known to care about the fans or the economy so why start now. And, people are still buying tickets.
2. CC Sabathia - Nope... Although his final asking price and new team has a small influence, one player does not hold up the idots called ownership that decide on deals and new contracts.
3. Compensation - Maybe ... Perhaps of more influence than the rest of the options listed to teams in small market cities, without a legit salary cap, compensation considerations have never stopped the big market teams from spending wildly.
4. Scott Bora$$ - Nope ... you can't be serious. How many players does he represent?
5. Collusion - Nope ... If there was collusion, then there would be a legit salary cap and players would not be getting the ridiculous contracts they have been getting.
Everyone is just waiting to see who blinks first...
im sick of its the economy as an excuse!!! if you check all of the stats it is only really hurtin the upper classes!!!!
Once fans no longer attend games, games will be nothing more than close up after close up with canned crowd noises and inserted crowd shots from games gone by.
How can everyone say it's the economy when CC Sabathia already has an offer on the table that would be the second largest contract in MLB history if he signed it? There is a lot of posturing going on right now by all the big players... when the dust settles, the money will be big for most of the top tier free agents.
Baseball ( management AND players) runs the risk of alienating a lot of fans by engaging in an arms race for free agents by throwing around obscene sums of money. The economy is in shambles, and many folks will simply be turned off by players demanding multi-million multi-year contracts. 2009 will be a tough year economically for the NAtion and professional sports. Advertising will be way off in 2009. Ticket sales are going to be down in 2009. I think management gets it. I hope the players do too. Neither can afford to further alienate the fan base when so many are hurting now and will in 2009.
B, you are crazy. like looney bin crazy. we are all to blame. for making credit cards bills we can't pay, for taking out loans for meaningless things, for lenders ok'ing mortages to people that dont really qualify.
rpc, you need to get out more. Have you checked the unemployment and foreclosure statistics lately? Evidently not. Do you get all your information from talk radio? I don't know whether the economy has much to do with the choices baseball execs are making, but last I looked, an awful lot of low and middle income Americans were taking a walloping hit in this recession.
I trace it back to three events (in chronological order):
1. McNamara's refusal to put Stapleton in as a defensive replacement. He wanted Buckner to be on the field when it was clinched.
2. A certain sportswriter with an idea to write a book about a mythical "Curse"
3. The decision to intoduce licensed pink Red Sox merchandise.
Yeah, all of the layoffs we read about are only the upper class folks losing their jobs. Good thing it hasn't hit the working class yet!
Lets pump the breaks there JD....you talk as if Theo and Co. have never had a productive offseason, as far as Mazz's article, its just insight and thoughts about the slow start to what should be and will become a very interesting offseason. You sound like Ozzie Guillen Jr over there...back your stuff up brotha
rpc, that's just a ridiculous comment. I personally know several middle class workers who have been laid off. Not to mention all the working class people who are losing or have lost their homes. Believe me, the upper class is going to be impacted by this recession far less than middle and lower classes.
I just don't get why we're not reading that the Sox are making a play for Jake Peavy. I know the Sox are not on his list of preffered teams but his agent seemed to leave the door open to him coming here. It seems that other teams have pulled out of the running and we have the assets to make a deal happen. It would be quite a coup and give them hands down the best starting staff in the majors.
Collusion? That's the least of the problems in the current economic climate. If the owners don't act prudently, they're insane...though come to think of it ,I'd kind of like to see them gang up on Boras and ignore the players he represents ( I said I'd like to see it, but doubt it would happen ). If Varitek refuses arbitation, I'd say "thanks for the memories " and get serious about a deal with Texas for one of their catchers...let's face it, Tek is the past, not the future.
John Post # 24:
I agree with most of what you said....but you can BANK ON IT -- Manny Ramirez gets more than a 2-year deal !!!!
He'll get 4-5, watch !!
John Post #24: Oh....and Mark Teixeira will get 6-8 from the Red Sox....so maybe I don't agree with you so much after all....
Its only the economy if it hadn't already been this bad last year (it was, we started this recession around this time last year), I think it is more likely the superstitious like agreement that someone has to take the first big step and while it was crazy, the Yankees did, it just didn't pan out because Sabatia did not take it (to save some face, the Yankees should think about pulling that offer as of December 5). If he had, though, it would see to me that Burnett is next and he is not that much of a gold mine that all teams would have sat back until arbitration was offered and rejected.
salary cap.
Lets play Hot Stove Baseball Already!!!!! I love watching the names fly across the transaction page!!!! I can't stand all the silence.....Shoot even the Evil Empire has nothing going on!!!!
And what stats are those, o mighty seer rpc? Foreclosure stats? Unemployment stats? Real wages stats? Or did you get your stats from Joe the Plumber?
Nice overview of current hot stove league, Mazz.
BORAS - Wrong again? If Boras waits too long in this market, the market may move against him. The worse the economy gets, the more teams will have to pull back. Whether or not the Yankees remain unaffected, if the rest of the league thinks they will feel it, competition for Boras' players goes down and so will the bidding. This could be a case where CC's first offer is his best. The longer that offer sits out there (for whatever reason), the longer until the rest of Boras' cards are played and the more likely the bad news in the economy seeps into the owners' heads. The Boras waiting game could be turned on its head if he is not carefule.
I heard the Dodgers may try to trade catcher Russell Martin and have shown
some interest in Mike Lowell. Get Texiera and try to work out a deal with the
Dodgers.
everybody is great lol
I feel like I'm watghing Seinfeld. The column and the comments are about nothing.
I would hate to think that if I were a professional athlete that I would give up as much money to an agent as they do. If I interview for a job, I get what I expect or I try somewhere else, but I don't give an agent 15% of my money to do the same.
I believe Shilling did as well as anyone and he negoiates for his own contract. If you are so stupid that you have to have someone speak for you you should not be allowed to play the game.
you hit the nail on the head Hoss.... all 3 times!
Great article: well-balanced, good insight.
One question: If LA is serious about CC, then why haven't they made him an offer? Or, why haven't other clubs made CC an offer (have they?)? Is it because the Yankees's offer is more than any other club has the resources to match? If so, and if CC and his agent are waiting for other offers, then it makes sense to me that this may be *the* main factor holding up the entire process (overdetermined, of course, by the other factors Mazz lists).
This looks like real-life Fantasy Baseball. I'd say owners are watching to see who lays out the big cash first to eliminate competition for the remaining big names.
And no matter what, Scott Boras is going to make a ton of money again (except on Varitek). I'm sure I'd get a hernia lifting his wallet.
collusion has been whispered for last couple of years...and with the economy being what it is, that becomes a smoke screen for the owners. The Red Sox with JD Drew brought the ire of many gms, the mets with the trade and sign of Santana, and this years off by Yanks for CC, brought out the brewers GM saying that yanks are ridiculous for offering 40 million over their "undisclosed" offer to CC. His comments implies of collusion of keeping costs down, and not a free market place.....once again the sox, yanks, and mets get the ire of all of baseball....(unless u throw in a stupid contract or two from McCourt in LA, who has red sox envy)...
celtfan: this should be enough (hopefully): Buchholz and Bowden are the centerpieces with a few other prospects (Not Lars Anderson, he will be good and the Padres already have a first baseman. Don't ask me to plan the deal, though. I am not Theo Epstein.
Rotation: Beckett, Peavy, Lester, Dice-K, Wake (with Masterson and Tazawa in the future) four potential 20 game winners. That would be a great thing if they got Peavy.
Uh Tony, whether or not Sabathia doesn't want to pitch in NY, period, or would just prefer to pitch in his home state of California is hard to say. Regardless, why would he jump at the Yankee's first offer at this early date, when it's possible if he gets another competitive offer, he could go back to the Yankees to see if they would go higher, and there have already have been published reports that they would. What agent in their right mind would tell a player to jump at a club's initial proposal? Thus, your reasoning that because C.C. hasn't yet taken up NY's first offer is proof he doesn't want to go there, is shallow thinking and pretzel logic.
I think it is a result of high asking prices and reluctance to light the fire. Right now the asking prices are way too high and nobody really wants to meet it. Also nobody wants to risk overpaying for an FA this early in the offseason. Besides no big FA's usually sign before the winter meetings.
Great article Mazz. After the Sox sign Tex all will be sorted out in short order.
Tony,
If the Red Sox sign Texiera they lose a #1 draft pick - would they then let Varitek sign elsewhere so that they get back the draft pick they lost so they would end up draft neutral?
Now that they have Tazawa and Ramirez - could they afford to trade Masterson for Saltamacchia? They would still have Bowden and Buchholz.
I can't believe I just wasted this much time reading all 55 posts
Your ability to consistenly write substance-less pieces is remarkable. There is no useful information in here at all. Somebody get Gordon Edes back, pronto.
another tony maccaroni article..and another ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ..session!!!!!!!!!!.........BRING BACK GORDON EDES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We are officially in a recession, folks are losing jobs and retirement cash, yet nothing stops athletes from demanding more & more. The owners want to profit, so the ticket prices, etc, can only go up as well! At some point, common sense will prevail and fans have to rebel.
you people have nothing better to do than critique this guy. go write your own damn articles if you can do better.
Peavy is injured, if everyone can't see that they're blind! Plus look at his home/away splits from last year, 1.75 (home), 4.28 (away). His home numbers are in a pitchers' park, now picture him having to face the AL , never mind the AL East. If he goes to the AL next year, his ERA won't be below 4.00. And the sox just signed the only player worth a contract guaranteed more than 5 years, Dustin Pedroia. A 25yr old infielder who is a better leader and hitter than the overpriced Texeira. No way the sox sign texeira for 6-8 years, he's soon to be 29 and the sox already have too many corner infielders and potential DHs. Look at the logistics, when you can extend Youk for less, plus need to pay Papelbon and Lester in the near future, anchors of your pitching staff and future success.
I think everyone here is taking this slow start way to hard! There's nothing much to explain it, it's just a slow start! It's happend before, it'll happen again!
Also, STOP YELLING AT MAZZ. HE'S FINE, LEAVE HIM ALONE!!! IF YOU THINK YOU'RE SO GREAT, MAKE YOUR OWN ARTICAL!!!
It must be really tough to have to write about NOTHING every day. I wish that something would start happening. At least the Sox are not losing ground to anyone yet.
If the Red Sox were looking for a bottom-of-the-rotation guy without losing draft picks, maybe they should look at Braden Looper, who was not offered arbitration by the Cardinals. There's plenty of talent out there for the Red Sox to grab to fill out their 25 man roster, maybe not breaking the bank is the way to go.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
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