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Against NL, No losing allowed

Posted by Tony Massarotti, Globe Staff June 18, 2009 10:38 AM

After tonight, the Marlins leave and the Braves come in. Then it’s on to Washington to face the wretched Nationals. Then they’re off to Atlanta to play the Braves again.

And then, the Red Sox finally can stop beating up on the little kids and return to the American League, even if it’s against the worst team in their own division, the Baltimore Orioles.

Interleague play is in full bloom in this 2009 season, and the results so far have been exactly as anticipated. The Red Sox are wiping the floor with the National League. Boston has outscored the Florida Marlins by a 14-3 count in this three-game set entering tonight’s series finale behind Jon Lester, he of the 2-0 record and 1.23 ERA in his last three starts. During that time, Lester has held opponents to an .099 batting average while piling up 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

With last night’s 6-1 win behind Brad Penny, the Sox are now 5-3 in interleague play this season, including a record of 4-1 in the last five games. Since the start of the 2003 campaign, Boston is 76-40 in regular-season games against the other league, tied with the Minnesota Twins for the best record in baseball. The Red Sox vs. the National League is baseball’s version of Godzilla meets Bambi, akin to watching a home winemaker stomp on a batch of grapes.

Here are five reasons the Red Sox rule baseball’s other world, starting with the most obvious.

5. The National League stinks.

Fine, so the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series last year. Big deal. Entering tonight, since the start of interleague play, the American League has a .521 winning percentage against the NL. Since the start of the 2003 season -- the year that coincides with the start of the Red Sox’ dominance -- the AL winning percentage is .542. And since the start of the 2006 campaign, the AL has a whopping .579 winning percentage, which translates into a 94-68 record over the course of a 162-game schedule.

Know what that means? It means that over the last three-plus seasons, if AL teams played exclusively NL teams, the AL teams would go an average of 94-68 while the NL teams would go an average of 68-94. Pennant races would be over by July 1. Send in the clowns.

Having already played the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies -- their only two scheduled interleague opponents currently possessing winning records -- the Red Sox look to have an easy schedule in the coming days, even without the use of a designated hitter in National League parks. And while the Mets did take two of three from the Sox at Fenway Park this year, there is evidence to suggest the series outcome was something of an aberration. One of New York’s two wins in that series came on a blown save by Jonathan Papelbon, accounting for the only loss this season in a game the Red Sox have led after six innings. In those situations, the Sox are 33-1.

4. Scouting.

As much as any team in baseball, the Red Sox are proficient at breaking down opponents and exploiting weakness. This was never more apparent than during the 2004 and 2007 World Series, both of which resulted in sweeps. (Yes, those are interleague games.) In those contests, the Red Sox went 8-0 while posting an aggregate 2.50 ERA against St. Louis Cardinals (2004) and Colorado Rockies (2007), who hit a combined .205 against Boston and were completely shut down.

It is one thing to identify an opponent’s deficiencies, another to exploit it. The latter speaks to execution, which is a reflection on the players and on their talents. Nonetheless, the Red Sox of today are as thorough as any team in baseball when it comes to melding philosophies of the old school and new school -- traditional scouting with sabermetrics -- and their advance scouts, in particular, know how to evaluate opponents.

The ultimate point here is that the Red Sox are prepared, from the front office to the man squatting behind the plate. They generally have all their bases covered, which is especially important when facing teams you see maybe once every few years.

3. Fenway Park

Sooner or later, doesn’t it always come back to the ballpark? During the Theo Epstein era -- that is, beginning with the 2003 season -- the Red Sox have the best home record in baseball (341-177) and have scored more runs at home (3,081 -- an average of 5.9 per game) than any team in the game. The Red Sox effectively have built their team to fit their ballpark, and the numbers prove it.

Against the National League, those numbers are even better. With last night’s win, the Red Sox are a major league-best 43-16 in interleague home games since the start of the 2003 season, a .729 winning percentage that translates into 118 wins over the course of a 162-game schedule. (Now that’s dominating.) During that span, the Sox have outscored opponents by a preposterous 133 runs, an average of roughly 2.3 per game.

But wait, there’s more. During those 59 games, the Red Sox have batted .312 as a team with a .388 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage. That’s an OPS of .900. In interleague games over the past six years, that is sort of like sending Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Howard to the plate -- for every at-bat.

2. Depth and versatility

When you look back, the funny thing is that the Red Sox were once atrocious in interleague play. From 1997-2002, a period that essentially encompassed the entire Red Sox managerial career of Jimy Williams, the Sox went 45-58 in interleague games, a .437 winning percentage that was seventh-worst in baseball and third-worst among AL clubs. When the National League teams showed up, the Red Sox got exposed.

While some of that difference had to do with the fact that the NL was a better league then -- even if only slightly better -- the greater problems concerned the one-dimensional nature of the Red Sox. Back then, the Sox were not the deep offensive club they are now. Losing the designated hitter hurt them badly. The Sox similarly lacked speed, making scoring even more difficult.

Indeed, from 1997-2002, the Sox went 25-28 in interleague home games, but a brutal 20-30 on the road. They scored fewer runs (201, an average of 4.0 per game) on the road in NL parks than all but six clubs. When the Red Sox travel to the NL now, they have a deeper lineup -- with or without David Ortiz -- more speed and generally play better defense. Since the start of the 2003 season, their interleague road record of 33-24 is third-best in baseball.

1. The lineup

The Red Sox simply are not easy to pitch to. This year’s lineup doesn’t have the same kind of punch that previous Sox clubs have had, but, by comparison, they still dwarf most anything in the National League. The Red Sox currently rank fourth in the American League in runs scored, but they have outscored the Phillies, who lead the NL.

When pitchers like Andrew Miller (last night) and Chris Volstad take the mound against the Red Sox, they are seeing lineups they are not accustomed to seeing. Since the start of the 2003 season, National League teams have a 5.89 ERA against the Red Sox. Toss in the two World Series blowouts and the number actually climbs a little to 5.95. Even the best teams in the NL have not been able to negotiate their way through the Boston batting order. Just ask those 2004 Cardinals and 2007 Rockies.

Tonight, for what it’s worth, the Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the mound against Lester. The possessor of a 15-8 record and 3.52 ERA last season, Nolasco has pitched better in his last two starts (a 2.77 ERA) but has a 7.62 ERA for the year. Now he has the challenge of facing Lester and the Red Sox in what could be a true indication of whether his rediscovered his groove.

Based on recent history, the odds are clearly stacked against him.

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Tony Massarotti

wonders if Billy Wagner and his agent actually communicate.

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Updated: Oct 14, 05:01 PM

About Mazz

Tony Massarotti is a Globe sportswriter and has been writing about sports in Boston for the last 19 years. A lifelong Bostonian, Massarotti graduated from Waltham High School and Tufts University. He was voted the Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by his peers in 2000 and 2008 and has been a finalist for the award on several other occasions. This blog won a 2008 EPpy award for "Best Sports Blog".

Tony's Top 5

NFL power rankings

5
Broncos. OK, we’re convinced. Kyle Orton is now 26-12 in his career as a starter. Josh McDaniels looks like a real coach. And the defense is much improved.
4
Saints. Went into Philly and beat the Eagles, went into New York and beat the Jets. Better defense than we thought. Right?
3
Vikings. If you’re a Vikes fan, Brett Favre should scare you come playoff time. But in the regular season? So far, so good.
2
Colts. Don’t look now, but only three teams in the NFL have allowed fewer points than Indy. And have we mentioned the quarterback?
1
Giants. They can run, pass and play defense. And did we mention they’re well-coached? Who needs Plaxico?
0 Comments »
Updated: Oct 14, 05:02 PM

Featured Comments

Sox pitching depth hits bottom
The real reason for concern is that key pieces of the 04 and 07 winning teams are old and rusty. Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek. Is there a baseball "Cash for Clunkers" program? Trade them in for new models.

Bob

'Big Papi' revealed as a myth
Wow....no sugar coating here, huh Tony? It is bitterly disappointing to confirm what I think most honest Red Sox fans must have at least suspected. Does it change anything? Not really. Again no honest Red Sox fan really believed none of the Home Town players were involved with this, did they? Baseball could have ended this whole story years ago by just making "The List" public. Instead, it will continue to trickle out over the next 10 years and we'll never get past this.

Steve from Plattsburgh, NY

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