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Reasons to doubt, reasons to believe

Posted by Tony Massarotti, Globe Staff  July 22, 2009 12:07 PM
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For the first time since June 7, first place now belongs to someone else. With last night’s loss to the Texas Rangers, the Red Sox now trail the New York Yankees by a game in the American League East. Since returning home for their final homestand of the first half, the Sox are 7-8.

A cause for concern? Or merely a bump in the road?

With both options in mind, we offer five reasons to panic . . . and five more to remain calm:

THE PESSIMIST’S TOP FIVE REASONS TO PANIC

1. The Red Sox can’t hit righthanded pitching.
Don’t believe it? In their last 21 games against righthanders, beginning with the loss to Washington's Jordan Zimmerman on June 25, the Red Sox are batting .221 with a .679 OPS. This only reaffirms the point that the Sox’ biggest need is a lefthanded hitter because a righthanded pitcher can neutralize Boston’s best hitters -- Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis. As for the lefties, David Ortiz isn’t what he used to be; J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury again look inconsistent. (Note: A short time after this entry was posted, the Red Sox acquired lefthanded-hitting first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of minor leaguers.)

2. The starting pitching isn’t as deep as the perception:
With Tim Wakefield now on the disabled list, ask yourself this: Whom do you trust beyond Josh Beckett and Jon Lester? Minus Beckett and Lester, Red Sox starters this season have a 6.12 ERA. When you get right down to it, does this team have pitching to deal for the help it clearly needs on offense?

3. The Sox can’t beat good teams. Maybe this is a matter of semantics, but for the moment, let’s define "good teams’’ as ones with a winning record. While the Sox are 32-24 against clubs over .500, they are 24-24 against winning clubs other than the Yankees. Meanwhile, against winning clubs other than the Red Sox, the Yankees have gone 28-17. The Yankees of today appear like a completely different club than the one the Sox faced earlier in the year.

4. The Red Sox don’t have a leadoff hitter. Entering tonight’s trip finale against the Rangers in Texas, the Red Sox rank 27th in baseball -- and last in the American League -- in OPS from the leadoff spot. The Sox also rank 27th overall and 13th in the AL in on-base percentage. Manager Terry Francona has used six players in the leadoff spot and no one has proven capable of doing the job consistently.

5. The Sox are destined to break down. If you’re not worried about the Red Sox’ health, maybe you should be. Can Mike Lowell hold up? What about Jed Lowrie? Mark Kotsay has battled nagging injuries all year. Rocco Baldelli can handle only a limited workload. Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka are on the disabled list, John Smoltz is recovering from shoulder surgery. Historically, September is Jason Varitek’s worst month. And what are the chances J.D. Drew stays healthy?

Now for the positives . . .

THE OPTIMIST’S TOP FIVE REASONS TO REMAIN CALM

1. Beckett and Lester are the best 1-2 punch in the American League. Though each member of the Red Sox’ two-headed monster has lost his first start of the second half, that isn’t likely to happen much -- if at all -- the balance of the way. During the first half, Beckett and Lester lost consecutive starts just once -- on April 12 and 13 against the Angels and A’s, respectively. Bteween that occurrence and this one, the Red Sox went 52-29.

2. The bullpen is healed. Based on what we’ve seen so far since the break, you can put away any concerns about the Red Sox bullpen. In four games since intermission, Sox relievers have pitched 9 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out 10. Opponents are a mere 3 for 32 against them -- a paltry .094 average -- and closer Jonathan Papelbon, in particular, might be throwing as well as he has all season.

3. Jason Bay is going to hit sooner or later. In his last 22 games, Bay is 11 for 75 (a .147 average) with one home run, three RBI and a whopping 31 strikeouts, a slump bordering on the Ortizian. Bay has not hit righthanders or lefthanders during that span, and he is far too good a hitter for that to continue. Over the course of his career, Bay generally has been as consistent a player in the second half as he has been in the first. That shouldn't change.

4. The Sox pummel lefthanded pitching. Aside from the fact that the team’s three best hitters are righthanded -- Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay -- the Sox also benefit greatly against lefties because Jason Varitek and Jed Lowrie are far more productive players from the right side of the plate. Against lefthanded pitching, from 1 through 9, the Red Sox can trot out one of the very best lineups in baseball, which will help neutralize divisional lefties like CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and David Price, among others.

5. The Red Sox aren’t pessimists. Freed from the burden of their past, the Sox aren’t negative thinkers anymore. Francona, in particular, performs at his best during times of crisis. Pedroia, Varitek, Ortiz, Beckett, Lester and Papelbon, among others, are all winning players and mentally tough competitors who will not come unglued during difficult times. Organizationally, from top to bottom, the Red Sox are downright unflappable, as they have proven in the postseason.

Are you worried, or remaining calm? Take our survey.

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Tony's Top 5

NFL story lines this season

5
Cam Newton In his first year as a starter, the No. 1 pick in the draft leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Entering Week 14, Newton had more rushing TDs than 26 of the 32 NFL teams.
4
The Harbaugh brothers OK, so it's a little corny. The Niners (and Jim) are obviously a better story than the Ravens (and John). But imagine if these teams meet in the Super Bowl? Good stuff.
3
The Jets Overall, they've been a disappointment. But under Rex Ryan, the Jets seem to creep back into the conversation every December and January. It's that time.
2
The Packers Since losing to the Patriots last December - a game Aaron Rodgers missed - they've won 18 straight. Remaining: Oakland, at KC, Chicago, Detroit. Then the playoffs.
1
Tim Tebow Maybe it's nothing more than a fad. But a quarterback who can't throw - and still wins? If you believed before this, may God bless you.
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Updated: Dec 7, 09:47 AM

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About Mazz

Tony Massarotti is a Globe sportswriter and has been writing about sports in Boston for the last 19 years. A lifelong Bostonian, Massarotti graduated from Waltham High School and Tufts University. He was voted the Massachusetts Sportswriter of the Year by his peers in 2000 and 2008 and has been a finalist for the award on several other occasions. This blog won a 2008 EPpy award for "Best Sports Blog".

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