Must the Pats change their ways?
Fourteen games into the 2009 season, the voice of Bill Parcells still echoes throughout New England. And yet, as much as the Patriots are what they are, we still cannot help but wonder if they can be what they once were.
During the period defined by the union of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, success in New England has been calibrated in only one increment: Super Bowls. The Pats have been to four (2002, 2004, 2005, 2008) and won three ('02, '04, '05); on another occasion (2007), their season ended at Indianapolis in the AFC Championship. To this point, Belichick’s nine full seasons in New England have produced six trips to the playoffs and three seasons where the Pats fell short, the most recent example of the latter coming last year after Brady was felled by a knee injury.
Barring a collapse in the final two weeks of the season, these Pats once again will be headed to the playoffs, most likely as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. Under Belichick, no Pats club has reached the Super Bowl as anything other than a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, prompting assorted questions this week as the Pats prepare for the Jacksonville Jaguars at Foxborough.
1. What will it take for the Pats to win the Super Bowl this season?
Something close to a miracle.
At this stage, the issues are pretty well spelled out. The Pats are 7-0 at home, 1-0 at neutral sites and 1-5 on the road. They have defeated one team that currently possesses a winning record (Baltimore, 8-6). Of the Pats’ nine wins, seven have come against teams that rank in the bottom 12 of the league in passer rating, which is to say that those have below-average passing attacks.
In a nutshell: The Pats have beaten the bad teams and lost to the good ones. They have proven vulnerable against any team that can throw, especially on the road. They look like pretenders more than contenders.
Still, given the unpredictable nature of the NFL and the pedigree of the Belichick-Brady tandem – the Pats are 14-3 in the postseason with those two joined at the hip – we all know that (in theory) anything can happen.
But with this particular team at this particular point in time, that only leads to more questions.
2. Is their best chance to win by keeping the ball on the ground?
Given Brady’s history, this might sound like blasphemy. Still, in the last four games, Brady has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (four), and he has not played a single game with more TDs than picks. Much of that clearly has to do with the quarterback’s health. On Sunday against Buffalo, Brady threw fewer passes than he has in any complete game since the first week of the 2006 season.
In each of the last two weeks, albeit against Carolina and Buffalo, the Pats have run the ball more than they have thrown. If and when Fred Taylor returns to the lineup – think he’s eager to play against his former team this week? – the Pats will have greater talent and depth at running back than at any other offensive skill position. Given the weather and relative ineffectiveness of the passing game (especially on the road), maybe the Pats’ best plan for the postseason is to control the ball and keep their defense off the field.
At least until they get indoors.
Or maybe especially when they get indoors.
3. Can the defense really stop anybody when it matters?
Based on scoring, the Patriots are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for having allowed the third-fewest points in the league. Only the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens have allowed fewer. And yet, Belichick had such little confidence in his defense that he went for it on that infamous fourth-and-2 at Indianapolis, where the Pats all but handed the Colts the final touchdown of the game.
Do not be fooled by Sunday’s performance against the Bills, who have allowed as many sacks (44) as any team but the Green Bay Packers (49) and rank 28th in the NFL in scoring. Of the Pats’ 28 sacks this season – that number ties them for 19th in the league – a whopping 10 have come against the Bills.
Team sack leader Tully Banta-Cain has recorded five of his eight-and-a-half sacks against Buffalo.
The point? The Pats can’t get to the quarterback and don’t exactly have Darrelle Revis in their secondary. That’s a bad combination. Their only signature stop of the season came against Baltimore in Week 4, when Ravens receiver Mark Clayton dropped a pass inside the Patriots’ 10-yard line on fourth-and-4 with less than a minute to play. Take that for what it’s worth.
4. Is Stephen Gostkowski capable of being a bigger weapon?
Two weeks ago, in miserable weather against Carolina, Gostkowski made field goals made fourth-quarter kicks of 28 and 27 yards, the latter to give the Pats a 10-point lead with slightly less than four minutes to play. The performance went relatively overlooked by many given the never-ending Randy Moss saga and the array of Patriots issues, but Gostkowski was a huge weapon in the game.
When the Pats lost to Miami by a 22-21 score on Dec. 6, Gostkowski did not attempt a single field goal. In fact, with the Pats holding a 14-7 lead late in the second quarter, Belichick opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Miami 6-yard line when a field goal would have given the Pats a 10-point lead. The Dolphins subsequently stopped the Pats and drove for a field goal before the end of the half, turning a potential 17-7 game into a 14-10 affair.
Last season, Gostkowski was a first-team All-Pro selection and was voted to the Pro Bowl. He has the leg to make the longer kicks. It may be time for the Pats to make their kicker a bigger part of the offense.
5. Are the coaches willing to change?
Admittedly, it is difficult to completely change course this late in the year. The Patriots entered this season as a passing team built around Brady, but their offense has been surprisingly mediocre, especially on the road. Minus the blowouts win over Tennessee and Tampa Bay – one team that quit and another that should have – the Pats have averaged 22.6 points per game in their other 12 contests this season, a number that would put them on par with the Miami Dolphins.
That said, does it make any sense to get into shootouts?
For obvious reasons, this week’s game against Jacksonville is enormous. With a win, the Pats can secure the division title and put themselves in position to at least protect Brady in Week 17. A win also would allow Belichick to use the final regular season game (at Houston) as an opportunity to measure his defense against a playoff-caliber passing attack.
Of course, if the Pats get to Week 17 needing a victory to advance to the postseason, all bets are off.
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Featured comments
"Embarrassment of riches" is a bit of an overstatement, Mazz, and will be until we're actually outspending the Yankee$ on a regular basis.
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