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Red Sox
To their credit, Red Sox turn things around
Maybe I'm old, or soft, or a combination of the two. But today, I feel compelled to give the Red Sox some love.
That was a darned good win last night.
And if these guys keep it up, I may actually start to like to them again.
Whether you feel the same way is entirely up to you, but the Red Sox pulled themselves above .500 for the first time this season Tuesday night with a victory over the Detroit Tigers that was, in a word, resolute. Pitted against all-world righthander Justin Verlander in the wake of yet more bad news regarding one of their better players (Dustin Pedroia), the Red Sox claimed a 6-3 win with a cast of characters that included Daniel Nava, Scott Podsednik, Nick Punto, Rich Hill, Vicente Padilla, Andrew Miller, Scott Atchison and the entire island of misfit toys.
Then again, maybe that's what is making this team so likeable at the moment. No preponderance of overpaid, underachieving veterans. No attitude. No excuses. Just a bunch of no-name retreads who are clinging to their careers behind a manager who was out of the major leagues for 10 years, dead and buried before the Red Sox resuscitated him.
"We're looking at it like we've got good momentum,'' left fielder Nava told reporters after delivering the game's key blow, a two-out, three-run double against the otherworldly Verlander in baseball's version of Bambi meets Godzilla. "We've got things going in the right direction. If you see the scoreboard, in the AL East things are still pretty tight. There's a lot of season left."
Indeed there is.
And if the Red Sox keep this up, as we've said before, there is every chance they will be far better in the final two months than they have been in the first two.
For now, following a September, offseason and spring that made Fenway Park as appealing as a swamp, let's give the Red Sox credit for one thing: they're hanging in there. For that matter, they've already demonstrated more resiliency and fight this year than they did in the final months of last season. On Opening Day, lest we forget, the Sox rallied from a ninth-inning deficit against the same Detroit Tigers only to see their bullpen undermine their lineup's efforts. The entire season this far has since been a succession of uphill climbs, the Red Sox fighting their opponents, themselves, the media and their fan base in attempt to reclaim some level of respectability.
Just look at the last week or so. Entering Tuesday night, counting Opening Day, the Sox were 0-6 this season when playing to get above the .500 mark. On Friday night, after feeling as he were squeezed by the home plate umpire, Jon Lester allowed a grand slam to Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce. Then the Sox engaged in a war of words (and brushbacks) with a Tampa Bay Rays team that Sox manager Bobby Valentine has since described as "cocky." The Sox rallied for a last at-bat win on Saturday, blew a game on Sunday, then rebounded again on Memorial Day. Then they came out last night and defeated Verlander while Valentine held the heretofore disappointing Daniel Bard on a short leash.
The end result? The Sox of today are 25-24 in an American League that looks like a relative mass of mediocrity outside of the state of Texas, a commendable accomplishment given the distractions and issues that have surrounded them for the better part of, fittingly, the last nine months.
After all, the process of making this team endearing again has been a rather laborious process akin to giving birth.
So for a day, at least, let's be fair here. For all of the self-inflicted wounds the Sox have suffered over the last several months, they have endured their share of bad luck, too. Pedroia is only the latest example. Until Ryan Sweeney came off the disabled list, the Sox had both their starting and backup outfield units on the disabled list, from Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Kalish to Cody Ross, Sweeney, Darnell McDonald and Jason Repko. Kevin Youkilis missed time. Andrew Bailey hasn't pitched. Any team can only take so much, and one can only hope now that the Pedroia injury proves to be nothing overly serious.
Meanwhile, the handsomely-paid Red Sox starters continued to perform like a small-market bunch, putting undue pressure on the middle of the lineup.
Maybe there is a lesson in all of this, particularly following a 2011 season in which the Sox amassed talent more than they truly built a team. The critical performers on the club this year have ranged from Nava and Mike Aviles to Sweeney, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ross, no to mention a Frankenstein bullpen crew that looks as if it were assembled with various body parts. Know what all those guys have in common? Generally speaking, they're survivors or rookies, people jumping at the chance to play and compete. Add Felix Doubront to the mix and what you have is a group of players intent on proving themselves, something Red Sox players seemingly have not felt for a very long time.
To some degree, the veterans, too, are doing their part. Adrian Gonzalez has moved to right field with nary a whimper, playing right field with more than just respectability. (His baseball instincts are off the charts.) David Ortiz appears to have rededicated himself on many levels, producing both in the batter's box and the clubhouse, where he called the team meeting that seemingly awoke this club after Josh Beckett's cataclysmic meltdown on May 10.
Today, as a result, the Red Sox have a winning record for the first time this year, something for which they deserve some measure of credit. They are hardly out of the woods yet. But maybe, amid all the infighting and whining and snitch-searching, the Red Sox have taken the time to do some soul-searching en route to making the baseball season in Boston interesting again.
Remember what has brought you this point, boys.
Because talent was only a very small part of it.
Red Sox make progress, but pitching still must improve
If the Red Sox are feeling good about themselves in the wake of a stretch during which they have gone 10-3, that is certainly a good thing. If the Red Sox are more unified now than they were at the beginning of the season, that is a good thing, too. And if the Red Sox are using the media and criticism as a rallying cause, that is also excellent news.
But for a team that has not had a winning record at any point this season, the Red Sox on Wednesday seemed a touch beyond their skis.
"[If] we play like this the rest of the season," manager Bobby Valentine said following a 6-5 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, "we're going to win the championship."
At the risk of sounding like Jim Mora ... championship? Championship? Let's slow down here. The Red Sox still have issues. Even with their latest surge, the Sox still rank 13th overall in the American League in ERA. While their relievers have crept up to a far more decent ninth -- still below average -- the starters, too, rank 13th. And that all comes after a 2011 season in which the Sox finished a disappointing ninth in ERA.
The point? The pitching on this team, particularly in the starting rotation, remains inconsistent. And unless or until that changes over an extended period of time, the Red Sox are likely to continue along the pattern that has thus far produced stretches during which they have gone 4-10, 7-1, 1-8 and now 10-3.
Add it all up and what you get is 22-22 after 44 games, a perfectly mediocre record that puts them right there with the Chicago White Sox, smack dab in the middle of the 30 major league teams.
Think Robin Ventura is talking about a championship in Chicago?
* Adrian Gonzalez is a three-time Gold Glove Award winner who won the honor in the American League as recently as last season. He has some reason to gripe about being moved to the outfield, temporarily or not. Instead, Gonzalez has gone out and demonstrated tremendous instincts in right field, which is a testament to his natural baseball ability.
Not every player, no matter how accomplished, would so willingly do what Gonzalez is doing now. As much as many of us think of Derek Jeter, he was never going to give up shortstop for Alex Rodriguez or anyone else. Jeter is nonetheless regarded as one of the best team players in baseball, the kind of guy who always greets teammates at the top step of the dugout, the way David Ortiz does.
Interestingly, during the same period of time where Gonzalez has accepted a move to the outfield, Kelly Shoppach went into manager Bobby Valentine's office on Tuesday and complained about a shortage of playing time. Was he kidding with this? Someone needs to remind Shoppach that he was brought here to be a backup catcher for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who continues to make strides as a player. If Shoppach is unhappy with that, the Sox should release him and hand the job to Ryan Lavarnway.
End of story.
* Speaking of Ortiz, let's say this all again: given his performance and tenure, he was the right man to speak up and call a team meeting. Somebody in the Red Sox clubhouse should have done so a long time ago -- we're going back to last September now -- and maybe someone did. Ortiz has always been one of the most approachable and well-liked players by his teammates, but he has never run the clubhouse with an iron fist, the way some other players might have.
If he opted to do so now, amen.
That said, when Ortiz said he is not respected by the front office, he's got it backwards. If he were not David Ortiz, the Red Sox might very well have cut him loose after the 2010 season. Theo Epstein explained the decision to retain Ortiz at that time by saying Ortiz was very important to "ownership," which certainly suggests that baseball operations was prepared to cut him loose and move on.
Since that time, the Red Sox have committed $27 million (including this season) in guaranteed salary on Ortiz. Last fall, he could have declined arbitration and hit the open market, but he chose not to. Know why? Because nobody would have given him more guaranteed money than the Red Sox did by agreeing to arbitration and, eventually, a one-year, $14.5 million settlement.
Every player ages. Eventually, they almost all end up on a series of one-year contracts. Before Ortiz says that he has been disrespected, he should consider that men like Pedro Martinez, Trot Nixon, Derek Lowe, Johnny Damon and, most recently, Jonathan Papelbon have been cut loose by the Red Sox with no real attempt to retain them.
With Ortiz, that has not happened.
* Given the rash of injuries the Red Sox have suffered in the outfield, the Red Sox should continue to find ways to get Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks in the lineup at the same time. If that means putting someone other than Gonzalez in the outfield, so be it. That is especially true in left field at Fenway Park, where there has been a long history of substandard defensive play.
Manny Ramirez, Mike Greenwell and Jim Rice all played left field at Fenway on a full-time basis and none of them were especially good outfielders. Heck, even Wilfredo Cordero played left field. It's just not that tough.
On the road, the Sox will need to be more careful about picking their spots.
* As we all know, Daniel Bard has strikeout stuff. So can someone please explain why Bard has so completely gone away from it? If Bard were using two-seam fastballs (or sinkers) to augment his power arsenal, that would be one thing. If were showing some propensity for pitch efficiency, that would be another. But Bard hasn't been getting strikeouts or quick outs, which really has more to do with his approach than his stuff.
Unbelievable. Major league evaluators are obsessed with velocity and power. Bard has both, but he's not using them. That makes no sense.
* Alfredo Aceves is still far more suited to be a middle reliever or set-up man, but has made one heck of a comeback in the last month. Since allowing five runs in the Red Sox' cataclysmic 15-9 loss to the Yankees on April 21, Aceves has brought his ERA from 24.00 to 4.15. In his last 15 outings, he is 8 for 8 in save opportunities while posting a 0.96 ERA with 19 strikeouts and five walks in 18.2 innings.
Last September, Aceves showed us all that he has guts.
Now, he's showing us again.
The Texas Con Man, Part II
Poetic, isn't it? Maybe there is simply something in the Texas water that prevents people from admitting they just screwed it all up. Faced with a crisis on Thursday night that he completely brought upon himself, Beckett simply imploded in an 8-3 defeat that was hardly so close.
Against a Cleveland Indians lineup stacked with left-handed and switch-hitters, Beckett allowed seven hits, seven runs, four doubles, two walks, and two home runs. He left the field to a cascade of boos that he richly deserved, and he now looks -- somewhat incredibly -- even more like someone who just doesn't give a damn.
Near the end, Clemens got this way, too, remember. At this stage of his career, when he was in his early 30s, Clemens went 40-39 with a 3.77 ERA during a four-year span in which the Red Sox generally looked like they look now. Clemens was out of shape. He lost the fire who made him who he was. Clemens basically had three Cy Young Awards in the same pocket where Beckett now holds two World Series rings, and it certainly started to feel like the big guy was just cashing the checks and living off his reputation.
Which is when his reputation really went south.
And so last night, there was Beckett again, telling us all that the off-days belong to him, that players only get 18 off-days during the season, the same way Clemens reminded us that the Red Sox had to carry their own bags through the airport. Clearly, you can only hide a life of entitlement for so long. The nadir of Beckett's existence in Boston coincidentally comes during a week in which Josh Hamilton hit four home runs in a game and made history for the Texas Rangers, which is relevant for this reason: Hamilton was the only man picked ahead of Beckett in the 1999 amateur draft. Hamilton subsequently came thisclose to losing his career amid a rash of personal problems and substance abuse issues, all before he became one of the truly great and inspiring stories in all of baseball.
Josh Hamilton almost had the game taken away from him, and so he learned to appreciate it, respect it, love it. He learned to respect his talent and his teammates, and he got the same back from them. When the Rangers have celebrated postseason victories in recent years, they have done so with ginger ale in their clubhouse, all out of respect for Hamilton. And after Hamilton went 5-for-5 with four home runs and 18 total bases earlier this week, he told television reporters that hitting three home runs in a game was always something he wanted to do, that he had never hit three before, that he never imagined four.
Josh Hamilton looked and sounded like a kid playing stick ball in the neighborhood schoolyard.
So here's the real question for Beckett today, amid all the obvious and well-deserved criticisms for how he has behaved and pitched of late: Do you even like what you do anymore, Josh? Do you? Or do you see your talent as some sort of needless burden? Five years ago, when Beckett was leading the Red Sox to their last world title, Red Sox officials spoke of Beckett having lofty goals, of him wanting to be a 300-game winner. Now they can't get him to keep his weight down during the season. They can't get him to stay off the golf course and do the prudent thing when he is scratched from a start with stiffness in his right lat muscle. The Red Sox just offer a series of meaningless, contradictory statement about Beckett's injury, or non-injury, or work ethic, all seemingly because an admission of guilt or wrongdoing would reveal some weakness.
Um, guys? You're 12-19. You're 19-39 since last September 1. You're beyond weak. You stink so badly right now that there is an entire legion of fans, from the entire six-state region you call yours, ready to quit for the summer. Further burying your anger and frustration isn't going to solve the problem. Ask the sports psychologists on your staff about that.
If you're not going to get mad now, when will you?
Last summer, before the debacle that was September and after becoming a husband and father, Beckett freely admitted that baseball was not the most important thing in his life anymore. He should have just told us baseball has no meaning to him whatsoever. Beckett is signed through 2014 for a guaranteed average of $17 million per season, all of which further detaches him from the realities of the real world. If you call in sick and then get busted on the golf course in the real world, somebody gets pissed off, Josh. You might even get fired. Clearly, none of those rules apply to you and you seem all too happy to remind everyone of it.
Years ago, when Clemens coasted through relative mediocrity, his time in Boston reached an inevitable conclusion. In the final months of the final year of his contract, Clemens picked up the pace with his eyes on free agency. He struck out 20 batters in a game for the second time in his career during a late-season run, tying Cy Young for No. 1 on the club's all-time list for victories. Then Clemens hit the market and recorded the highest average annual salary ever awarded a pitcher to that point in time, leaving the Red Sox in a bitter feud that sprung him (along with the alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs) into the next, glorious phase of his career.
Clemens won four more Cy Young Awards after he left Boston. He won two World Series with the New York Yankees. Clemens reputation since has never been the same in Boston -- or anywhere else, for that matter. And if the Red Sox have any lingering regret from that calamity, it is that they should have dumped Clemens when they had the chance.
With Beckett, the Red Sox had the chance last fall. They whiffed.
And so the protege continues to follow in the footsteps of his mentor, toward an inglorious end that now seems inevitable.
No need to couch these opinions
Sights, sounds and observations while couch-ridden:
On those nights the shots are falling, like Sunday, the Celtics look positively unbeatable. There is no one to stop them. From Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to even Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma, the Celtics have a collection of shooters like few other teams in the league. That is why LeBron James, in April, called them the best jump-shooting team in the league.
James's remarks, of course, came in the wake of the Celtics' 115-107 win at Miami last month that remains the most impressive win of this Celtics season. The Celtics shot 60.6 percent that day. They shot a preposterous 64.3 percent (9 of 14) from 3-point distance. They all but repeated the trick on Sunday against the Atlanta Hawks in an avalanche of jump shots and 3-pointers that produced a 101-79 victory and a 3-1 series lead in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Win or lose tonight in Game 5, the Celtics should rub out these Hawks in no more than six games. In the next round, the Celtics should rub out the Philadelphia 76ers or Chicago Bulls, too. All of that should set up a rematch with the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals, and this year's meetings with the Heat have proven that the Celtics indisputably have a chance.
A championship? That still seems unlikely. Even against Miami, the Heat (who will have home court) certainly will be favored. But short of unforseen injury, nothing should stop the Celtics from being in the NBA's final four.
For all of the credit being heaped upon Celtics vice president of basketball operations Danny Ainge this season, for all of the confidence Ainge allegedly showed in his team by failing to "blow it up," we all know better. We all know Ainge was willing to (and tried to) deal. Where Ainge really gets the credit now - and over these last five years - is for continuing to add shooters to a Celtics core of Garnett, Allen and Pierce, all of whom can consistently puncture opponents from the outside.
Generally speaking, think of the complementary players Ainge has brought to Boston in complementary roles over the last five years. James Posey. Eddie House. Sam Cassell. Rasheed Wallace. Pietrus. Bass. Even Keyon Dooling, Delonte West, Sasha Pavlovic and Von Wafer. All of them were at least respectable to above-average shooters at their respective positions, acquisitions designed to make the Celtrics tougher to defend in the half-court setting that invariably categorizes the postseason.
On Sunday, did you find yourself lamenting the Celtics' absence of a low-post offense, something that is almost never talked about anymore? What about their deficiencies in rebounding? The Celtics of today are, in many ways, no different than the Celtics of 2007-08, built on defense and jump shooting, save for the slashing of someone like Avery Bradley.
As Globe columnist Bob Ryan noted on Monday, Celtics coach Doc Rivers often has described the NBA as a "make-miss league."
When the Celtics make like they did Sunday, a trip to the Eastern Conference final seems like a can't-miss proposition.
* * *
Kevin Youkilis is doing all the right things, greeting Will Middlebrooks with smiles at the top step of the dugout, but we all know what is going on here. In four games, Middlebrooks is batting .381 with three home runs and nine RBIs, all as Youkilis and the Red Sox approach the end of a deal that has the Sox holding a $13 million option for next season.
Fact: if Middlebrooks keeps playing like this, Kevin Youkilis is not getting his job back. Not this year. Not as the Red Sox continue to plod along in what seems like the definition of a bridge year, a team without an identity and, it seems, much of a chance. If and when that changes, the Red Sox can adjust accordingly. But there is one (and only one reason) to play Youkilis over Middlebrooks if and when Youkilis is ready to return.
To trade him.
Of course, we are still in the early stages of the 2012 season, and so there is ample time to evaluate these Red Sox, decide what is best for the short term and the long. But in the next two months, the Red Sox will be playing for more than just a potential place among the contenders in the American League. They will be playing for the trading deadline, for the purpose of deciding who stays and who goes in what looks to be a transitional year.
If the Sox are not within reasonable striking distance of a playoff spot come July, Youkilis is trade bait, folks. Ditto for David Ortiz or Daisuke Matsuzaka or Cody Ross or Mike Aviles. For that matter, ditto for just about anyone who might leave the Sox this fall or next. (This means you, Jacoby Ellsbury.) In the wake of last year's September collapse, the Red Sox must take a hard look at anything and everything on the trade market, particularly with youngsters like Middlebrooks, Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnway and Jose Iglesias, among others, now on the cusp of the big leagues.
Middlebrooks is now only the obvious.
* * *
In some ways, Matt Light is that rarest of the rare, an NFL starter since essentially the day he set foot in an NFL traning camp. Light played 12 years and 155 games in the NFL, 153 of them starts. He started every game he played from early in his rookie year. Light protected the blind side of Drew Bledsoe (some) and Tom Brady (mostly) during five trips to the Super Bowl, six trips to the AFC championship and three Super Bowl titles, and he did so with relative consistency, professionalism, dignity.
Was Light ever the best left tackle in pro football, a Hall of Fame-type talent? No. But he was better than average, a very good player for a long time on what has been the most successfuil organization in football during his tenure, which is hardly a coincidence.
Light, in many ways, was the model Patriot during his career, a workmanlike and efficient player who did not self-promote despite a high-profile position.
With regard to the Patriots, the impact of Light's departure could be profound. Logan Mankins will be out for the start of the season. Now the Patriots will have a new left tackle (presumably Nate Solder) on the left side, too. All of that means that Brady's blind side will be guarded by an entirely new tandem, at least in the early part of the season, which may now be the biggest question for a team that has loaded up on offense and defense in free agency and the draft, in that order.
Like any player, Matt Light had good years and bad years during his time with the Patriots.
Maybe now, in his absence, we will come to understand just how good
Valentine needs to be allowed to manage
"I really don't know what Bobby is trying to do. That's not the way we go about our stuff around here."
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, speaking to reporters before Monday's game between the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park.
And so the Red Sox continue to float aimlessly along, with no apparent direction or leader. The second baseman reprimanded the manager, who tweaked the third baseman, who was asked if he is a snitch. The No. 2 starter is still looking for said mole. The general manager seemed to back his player and not the skipper, whom the GM never wanted and who was all but appointed by the owners, who seem more interested in soccer.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 4-6 entering Tuesday night's series opener against the two-time defending American League champion Texas Rangers, who currently have the best record in the American League.
The Bobby Valentine Era is off to a raging start, eh?
Time heals all wounds, or so we have been told, but here's the real problem with the 2012 Red Sox: whether it was Terry Francona last September or Valentine now, the manager doesn't have a leg to stand on. Players undercut him then and they're undercutting him now. (Shame on them for this.) The only people who wanted Valentine here at all are the people on the highest levels of the organization, who presumably brought Valentine here on a two-year contract to shake things up, only to see him castrated by his clubhouse the first time he spoke up.
News flash: Bobby V. talks too much. He cannot help himself. Anyone with half a clue knew this before Valentine ever set foot in Boston, and so no one should be surprised when Valentine is asked a question about Kevin Youkilis and then answers it.
So here's a question for you, folks: why, exactly, is Bobby Valentine here? Seriously. What was he brought in to do? If Red Sox ownership (John Henry and Tom Werner) or upper management (Larry Lucchino) wanted Valentine here to ruffle feathers and put the team on edge, then they need to come out soon and say so. At the moment, after all, Valentine doesn't seem to be getting support anywhere else. Bobby V. has been here all of 10 games and is being booed by the fans, dismissed by his players and lectured to by his GM, which is basically what was happening to Francona at the end of last season.
If the manager of the Red Sox doesn't have credibility or trust within the walls of his own organization, he's certainly not going to get any outside of Fenway Park, either.
For all of his faults -- and he has plenty -- Valentine is now starting to look like a relatively sympathetic figure, though he brings much of his issues on himself. Valentine will be 62 next month. He comes off as self-promoting and disingenuous. But Red Sox fans and players have not so much as given the man a chance, Valentine all but exiled beyond the city limits.
Earth to Red Sox players: Francona covered your backs for eight years and you got him fired last September. You have no right to complain about anything anymore. Had you conducted yourselves with a little more professionalism and been a whole lot more committed, you would likely still possess a secure environment. The moment that blew up, you left yourselves open to an array of possibilities, one of which was a manager who wasn't going to repeatedly tell you how great you are.
If someone like Pedroia has an issue with that, he really needs to take it up with the gluttonous teammates through whose greasy fingers last year's season slipped. We all like Pedroia. We all like what he stands for. But the players work for the manager, not the other way around.
As for Cherington, he was hardly in a position to say no when the Red Sox named him the successor to Theo Epstein. He has waited a long time for the job. But when the GM of the Red Sox says that he read Valentine's comments about Youkilis and came away with the same feeling the player did, well, it certainly feels as if he's leaving his manager on an island. If Cherington had his way, Dale Sveum would undoubtedly be the manager of the Red Sox. Instead, there is now the feeling that neither the players nor the GM want Bobby V. here at all, which leaves Valentine, we think, with only a few friends in very high places.
In the end, as is almost always the case, the line here leads back to Red Sox ownership, which needs to put its foot down some time very soon. Last season, when Red Sox players complained about the schedule, the answer of ownership was to give them all headphones and invite them on John Henry's yacht. So what are they all going to get now? The latest iPad? The players on this club need to be put in their place. They need to be taught the chain of command. They need to understand that they just work here and that Bobby Valentine is their manager, like it or not, or someone needs to be sent packing.
The way things feel right now, after all, there is simply no way this is going to work as is.
Here's an idea: Make Padilla the closer
In baseball, especially, you generally get what you pay for, which in the case of the Red Sox is a closer with a history of injury. Andrew Bailey is gone for months, not weeks, and even then there is no assurance that he will be able to stay on the field whenever he comes back.
In his absence, the Red Sox need to find a closer while keeping the rest of their bullpen generally intact, a task that might be easier than many would like to believe.
So here's a candidate for you:
Vicente Padilla.
Now 34, Padilla went 1-0 with one save and a 3.29 ERA in seven appearances covering 13.2 innings for the Red Sox this spring. He struck out 11 and walked one. Spring numbers mean relatively nothing, of course, and they are offered here solely as some indication that Padilla threw the ball well during camp. In a March 13 appearance against the Yankees in Tampa, Padilla struck out four and did not walk a batter in three hitless innings against the Yankees, at times looking downright dominant.
Give him the ball in the ninth, Bobby V. See how it goes. If Padilla blows a couple early, you can always switch to a more traditional plan. But trying Padilla in the closer's role makes sense on so many levels that it's worth a roll of the dice.By now, we all know that closers are frequently made, not born. Many of them are converted starters. Dennis Eckersley, John Wetteland, Joe Nathan, and John Smoltz are just a handful of names on the list of those who have made the transition near or after the age of 30. More than anything else, closing takes a combination of stuff and mindset, a pairing Padilla seems to possess based on how he threw the ball this spring.
Here's another thing a closer needs: control. Late in games, particularly, walks are a killer. For the most part, Padilla has had decent control during his career, at times throwing the ball with good precision.
Now the obvious question: why Padilla over Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves, the former of whom had 20 saves for the Houston Astros last season and the latter of whom has been borderline brilliant since the Red Sox acquired him? Because the Red Sox bullpen sets up better if Valentine can leave each in his current role. Melancon had a poor spring, which would be meaningless if it were not for the fact that many doubted his ability to close to begin with. (Some of us doubted whether Melancon was truly for cut for the eighth inning, believing he is better suited for the sixth or seventh.) And Aceves has such great versatility that he is invaluable anywhere from the sixth through the eighth, possessing the ability to pitch as many as all three on any given night.
By most accounts, Valentine could go with any combination of Melancon, Aceves and Padilla in the final three innings. On some level all three would make sense. No succession of those pitchers is necessarily wrong. But putting Melancon first and Padilla last allows Valentine to maximize the abilities of all three, assuming Padilla is up to the task.
Here's the one major concern with Padilla: left-handed batters. Historically during his career, Padilla has had trouble with lefties, largely because he is a fastball-breaking ball pitcher with nothing that runs toward the third base of home plate. Of course, the same could be said of Daniel Bard, whose development and implementation of his changeup may be the key to any success he has as a starter.
In short relief, Bard often got away with two pitches. Maybe Padilla can do the same, particularly given an intense disposition that borders of craziness -- Aceves is similar in some ways -- which could make him the perfect candidate for the job.
On a grander scale, let's understand how the Red Sox got themselves into this mess, something they have not really experienced since Papelbon took over for the deteriorating Keith Foulke in the earliest stages of the 2006 season. Papelbon finished that year on the disabled list, but it was the only time during his six full seasons in Boston that he went on the DL. (Bailey couldn't even get out of his first spring healthy.) Add Papelbon's departure onto a list of factors that included a self-imposed payroll restraint thanks to dead money -- thank you, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bobby Jenks and Theo Epstein -- and the Red Sox were put in the unenviable position of needing both innings (in their rotation) and a new closer.
So how did the Sox solve it? They took the most cost-efficient way out. They moved Bard into the rotation and acquired both Melancon and Bailey (combined salaries: about $4.5 million) by trade, all before shedding the contract of Marco Scutaro to make the numbers all work.
Now, the biggest acquisition of general manager Ben Cherington's inaugural offseason already has gone poof, thrusting the Sox into a relative fire drill before having played a single game.
Fine. Stuff happens. But if the Sox had just invested, say, in someone like Hiroki Kuroda on a one-year deal -- something the Sox have indicated they were always willing to do -- they could still have Bard (with Melancon, Aceves and others) in the bullpen and their rotation intact. Instead, the Sox are now so committed to Bard in a starter's role that they are intent on keeping him there (the right move -- at least for now), which leaves the bullpen in a rather unsettled state.
Again, it is important to remember what Cherington's approach was over the winter. Rather than signing one starter for $10 million or so, the Sox went out and secured, among others, Padilla, Aaron Cook and Carlos Silva on a bunch of low-risk contracts, hoping one of them would pan out if and when there is a need in the rotation. By all accounts, a rehabilitating Cook is not quite ready yet. Silva barely made it into spring before he broke down. Bailey now looks like yet another acquisition in a lot of damaged goods, all because the Red Sox opted to buy in bulk.
And we haven't even mentioned Chris Carpenter, the broken pitcher whom the Sox received as compensation for Epstein.
Just wondering: did the Sox invest in any, um, healthy pitchers?
OK, so that's a jab. But you get the idea. Suddenly, Padilla looks like one of the few healthy pitchers (for now) that Cherington picked up during the offseason, the only real man on the Opening Day roster for whom the Sox did not have a pre-assigned role. Bard, Felix Doubront, Melancon, and Aceves were all expected to fill specific roles, as was Bailey, who is now out of the mix until roughly the All-Star break.
Rather than shuffling bodies throughout their entire pitching staff then, the Sox should just place Padilla in the closer's role for now and see how it goes. If it fails, they will merely be back in the same situation they are now.
But if it works, they will have seamlessly replaced the injury-prone Andrew Bailey without tinkering with their entire staff or bullpen.
A little spring cleaning on the sports front
In the wake of their collapse, beating up on the New York Jets is the fashionable thing to do, just as it was to beat up on the 2011 Red Sox. The teams share some similarities, and they still share them entering their respective 2012 seasons.
Which is why neither should be dismissed.
Let's start with the Jets, who are now being mocked for being so downright stupid as to take on Tim Tebow, whom they acquired from the Denver Broncos for essentially a fourth-round pick. Why is this so dumb? The Jets have an inconsistent quarterback in what is now, more than ever, a quarterback league, and they failed in any pursuit of Peyton manning, however brief. So what were they supposed to do? Go into next season with the same situation at quarterback and offense that has proven insufficient for three years?
Here's what Tebow gives the Jets: options. New York isn't going to win a Super Bowl solely with its passing attack, and the Jets still may not win one now, either. But if the Jets are being truthful by saying about Drew Stanton is still their backup quarterback, then Tebow could provide them with an offensive wrinkle the way Kordell Stewart once did for the Steelers.
And there are these factors: Sanchez, who has been babied since he arrived in New York, needs competition, be it from Stanton or Tebow. And the Jets clearly need character in a locker room that badly lacked it, which something Tebow absolutely, positively possesses in bulk.
After all, look at the impact Tebow had on last year's Broncos, who quickly became believers once he began to play.
* Some of us still would have liked to see the Patriots invest in a true impact player on defense, but it's hard to argue too much with what the Patriots have done thus far in free agency. While retaining Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Dan Connolly and Wes Welker, among others, the Patriots now have added Brandon Lloyd, Daniel Fells, Robert Gallery, Jonathan Fanene, Trevor Scott, Will Allen, Donte Stallworth, Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Gregory and Spencer Larsen. Some of those players will prove to be nothing more than names in a pile of bodies, but the New England passing attack suddenly looks as prolific as ever.
At the moment, three questions remain -- two more significant than the other: the defense, the left side of the offensive line and, to a lesser extent, running back. (Fare thee well, Benjarvus Green-Ellis.) With Logan Mankins injured and Matt Light potentially calling it a career, Tom Brady's blindside is currently in question, with or without Gallery and Nate Solder. As for the defense, one can only hope the Patriots are planning to be aggressive in the draft, where they have two first-round selections and two second-round selections.
Could that be at least part of the reason the Patriots asked Brady to restructure his contract and free up even more salary cap space?
* We all have every right to criticize the Red Sox and question their character in the aftermath of last season, but let's not get silly. The Red Sox are not going to go 83-79. From May 13 through Aug. 31 of last season, the Red Sox went 66-32, a .673 winning percentage that translates into a 109-win pace over a 162-game schedule. There is plenty of talent to win. What this all comes down to is attitude and health, both of which are legitimately in question.
But talent? The Red Sox have plenty. In fact, they still have far more than most.
* Given Bobby Valentine's recent remarks about criticizing his players, can't help but wonder when Valentine said Yankees manager Joe Girardi wasn't very "courteous" in pulling the plug on Thursday night's tie game, was that a fact or an opinion?
* Maybe it has something to do with the preponderance of people in this business from the Newhouse School of Communications, but does anyone else find Syracuse alumni to be disproportionately annoying? We're not saying Syracuse folks have quite entered the arena of Boston College, Duke, and Notre Dame folks, but for a school and program that has been smeared by a succession of scandals of late, Syracuse alums ought to be more red faces and fewer of that unsightly orange clothing.
* The New Orleans Saints got what they deserved, plain and simple. Placing prices on the heads of opposing players is disgraceful to begin with, and lying to cover it up is just as bad.
But as long as Drew Brees stays in uniform, the Saints are going to be a huge factor in the NFC South, especially when New Orleans' out-of-conference schedule features the AFC West.
Of course, New Orleans also has to play the NFC East.
* Peyton Manning immediately makes the Denver Broncos the favorite in the pathetic AFC West, but Denver's schedule in 2012 in hardly a cupcake. Thanks to its first place finish, Denver will face New England and Houston this season. Additionally, the Broncos have both the NFC South and the AFC North on their schedule, which means meetings with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. New Orleans and Atlanta, among others.
* We all know that Jose Iglesias probably is not quite ready to hit consistently in the major leagues, but many of us believe the Sox should give Iglesias the nod to start the year with the big club. The Sox can carry one fewer pitcher in the early going, anyway, and the team would benefit a great deal from having a young potentially dynamic player on its roster -- even if Iglesias is only dynamic on defense -- to start the season.
Think about it: when was the last time the Red Sox had a rookie everyone could truly get excited about? Jacoby Ellsbury certainly comes to mind, but that was four years ago. When the Atlanta Braves were at the peak of their reign during the `90s, the Braves liked to integrate about two new starters every three years, turning over the stock and keeping the team infused.
Particularly in the wake of last year, the Red Sox could use the positive energy and bounce Iglesias would bring. The team has too many overpriced veterans to begin with. If Iglesias proves overmatched offensively, the Sox can subsequently send him down to the minors, still leaving open for the possibility of a return late in the season.
What would be wrong with that?
Red Sox are AL East's mystery team
Maybe Valentine is trying to send a message to his players. Maybe he is setting himself up to take credit for any success.
Regardless, slightly more than two weeks before the start of the 2012 season opener, the indisputable truth is that the Red Sox remain a relative mystery, particularly in a league that became far more competitive over the winter.
If this all somehow meshes, the Red Sox could be exceptional. If it does not, they could be dysfunctional. Ten years after Valentine managed a New York Mets team long defined by schizophrenia and unfulfilled potential, he now manages a Red Sox team that played last season as if bipolar.
When the Sox were good, after all, they were very, very good. But when they were bad, they were very, very bad.
Further complicating the issue for the Red Sox this year is the improved competition throughout the American League, in the division and out. The Toronto Blue Jays have become everyone's darlings to challenge the hierarchy in the division, and the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays both are now annual playoff contenders. Some wise guy out there is certain to pick the Red Sox fourth in their very own division, a contention that seems utterly outrageous until you actually stop and think about it.
If the Red Sox carry over some of the issues that destroyed them at the end of last season, they might not be one of the three best teams in their division, let alone league. And when the discussion expands to include the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, among others, the reality is that the Red Sox might end up in the middle of the pack of a league in which there is decidedly little margin for error.
Is that true for other clubs in the upper half of the league, be they the Rays, Jays or even Texas Rangers? Of course. The obvious difference is that the Red Sox are still toting that $180-$190 million payroll, which is an awful lot to pay for a team that might finish in the middle of the pack.
Think of the questions on this team at the moment: Shortstop. Right field. The bullpen. Every pitcher from Josh Beckett, Daniel Bard and Clay Buchholz to Andrew Bailey and Alfredo Aceves comes with some question of durability - and the potential for enormous upside. Add in a rookie general manager and the opinionated Bobby V., and there is the potential here for a reality show that should make team chairman Tom Werner giddy.
And yet, for all of the talk this spring about the issues that plagued the Red Sox last year and continue to hover them this spring, here is something we all should not overlook: there is indisputably the potential here for greatness. If things break right - if Beckett bounces back, if Valentine's ways are embraced, if Bailey flourishes - the Sox could win their division. Talent has never once been the issue on this team, and a year ago there were many proclaiming the Sox as absolute world-beaters coming out of camp.
And for a good chunk of time last summer, they were.
All of that said, here's a prediction: the Sox will play well during the early stages of this season because they have to. After last September, a slow start would increase the potential for disaster. Don't be surprised if the Sox come out and play April and May as they did in 2002 - the year immediately following their last cataclysmic finish - when they raced to a 40-17 start. Unfortunately, that club ultimately reverted to form and went 53-52 over its final 105 games, missing the playoffs by six games and becoming the poster boys for the Red Sox of the Tom Yawkey era.
That club, like this one, was loaded with big-name talent, from Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe (a 20-game winner in 2002) to Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. And yet, when the schedule intensified and the heat got turned up, the Sox were anything but a team, and anyone who remembers that season remembers that the Sox almost never came back from deficits and rarely fought for one another.
In the end, their numbers looked good and had a cluster of All-Stars.
But they didn't win a darned thing.
Bobby V said on a New York radio show that the Red Sox are a work in progress. Maybe Valentine has recognized the extent of the fractures that exist within the Boston organization. Maybe Valentine was positioning himself as the man to fix it. Or maybe Valentine simply feels as we almost all do, that the Red Sox have the talent to win and the selfish attitude to lose, and that the 2012 season could be a struggle between those forces.
This year, in this league, what the Red Sox ultimately will be, after all, is anybody's guess.
For Pedro Martinez, the Boston battery was always charged
During an illustrious career that spanned at least parts of 18 major league seasons, Pedro Martinez pitched in 487 games covering a whisker more than 2,827 innings. Nobody caught him more than Jason Varitek.
And generally speaking, Martinez preferred it that way.
"To be honest, half of my success in the big leagues is because of Jason Varitek," Martinez said by phone last night from Miami, where he has a home. "Whatever I say will fall short of how I feel about Jason and his career and how he goes about his business."
Martinez was a member of the Red Sox from 1998-2004, of course, and as we all learned during those years, he can be prone to overstatement from time to time. In this case, much of that comes out of respect. Varitek would be the first to say that Martinez was solely responsible for the success he had throughout a career that should land the pitcher in the Hall of Fame during the summer of 2015, regardless of who was behind the plate at any point in time.
But as Varitek moves one day closer to official retirement, an announcement scheduled for tomorrow at the Red Sox' spring training facility in Florida, one of the best ways to remember him is, perhaps, as Martinez' most trusted battery mate. In and of itself, that speaks volumes. Martinez could be among the most temperamental sorts to take the field during his major league career, the kind of talent and competitor who often demanded special treatment -- and sometimes warranted it.Here's what people don't remember: when Martinez came here in 1998, Scott Hatteberg was the starting catcher. During that season, Hatteberg caught 182 of Martinez' 233.2 innings. A year later, at the start of Martinez's historic 1999 campaign, Hatteberg started each of Martinez' first three outings before Varitek entered in the middle innings of a game against the Chicago White Sox.
From that point forward, Hatteberg caught just one more of Martinez' innings on the season, that coming in a meaningless season finale against Baltimore, when Martinez relieved his older brother, Ramon, in a postseason tune-up. With Varitek behind the plate that year, Martinez went 21-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 192.1 innings, a rate of 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
A battery was born.
"I asked for him in the bullpen [between] starts," Martinez remembered. "He had a big body -- he was a big target -- and he had good hands. I asked Joe [Kerrigan, then the pitching coach], 'Why don't you give me this guy?' and he said yes. The next time out, I threw a shutout."
Martinez's memory, like his pitches, proved accurate: in his first start with Varitek behind the plate in 1999, Martinez pitched 7.2 shutout innings against the Detroit Tigers in an eventual 1-0 win.
Excluding 2001, when both players were injured for a large chunk of the season, Martinez rarely took the mound with anyone else behind the plate. In 2000, the second of Martinez's two Cy Young Award-winning seasons, Varitek caught 203.1 of Martinez's 217 innings. In 2002 and 2003, no one other than Varitek caught a single pitch thrown by Pedro. And in 2004, Martinez last with the club, Varitek caught 210 of Martinez's 210 regular-season innings.
All in all, from April 1999 through 2004 -- again, excluding 2001 -- Varitek essentially caught 991.2 of Martinez's 1,013 innings when both players were available, a whopping 97.9 percent.
Where Varitek especially excelled, Martinez remembered, was in game preparation and "pitch sequencing," the former of which has been expressed by many who have worked with the catcher, the latter of which Martinez was a stickler for. For all of the physical gifts Martinez possessed on the mound, his mental gifts were routinely evident.
For example: on the night of Aug. 2, 2000, Martinez pitched a complete game in a 5-2 win over the Seattle Mariners. In that game, Alex Rodriguez went 0 for 4. Martinez began each of Rodriguez's first three at-bats with a called strike -- once on a fastball, once on a curveball, once on a changeup. By the time Rodriguez stepped up the fourth time, Martinez -- and Varitek -- were fairly certain that Rodriguez would be swinging at the first pitch this time, so the tandem opted for curveball that would break away from the batter.
Reaching for the ball after being caught out on his front foot, Rodriguez hit a harmless, high bouncer to the left side and was thrown out easily on the first pitch.
Based on the comments of other Sox pitchers this week, that kind of telepathy was something Varitek shared with many members of the Boston staff, including Curt Schilling, who was intent on calling his own games when he came to the Red Sox in 2004. Before long, Schilling, too, had ceded control to his catcher. That is only further illustration of the trust Varitek had from his pitchers, some of whom were among the best to ever take the mound.
"I think it was his determination to sacrifice himself for the good of us," Martinez continued, echoing a sentiment that that has been expressed by many in recent days. "He was determined to better for the team than he was for himself. A lot of people take for granted what he did for us.
"For me, if he hit .220, it was like .320. He was worth .100 points to me," Martinez said. "If I had a 2.00 ERA, it would have been 3.00 without Jason."
An exaggeration? No doubt.
But then, in many ways, Pedro Martinez always had some flair.
Is American League passing Red Sox by?
Prince Fielder has gone to Detroit while Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson have landed in Anaheim, all as the Red Sox have been hanging out at the local book swap. That is not meant to be a criticism of Boston's strategy this winter so much as it is a commentary on the new landscape of the American League.
It's a good thing baseball is adding another playoff team this year, folks, because the Red Sox might have missed the postseason again otherwise.
They still might.
Amid the Patriots' march to yet another Super Bowl, some time has passed since we talked baseball. And now, just a few short days after the Red Sox traded their starting shortstop to free up payroll, the Detroit Tigers have secured first baseman Prince Fielder to a whopping nine-year, $214 million dollar contract, giving Detroit - at least in the short term - perhaps the most formidable middle-of-the-order tandem in all of major league baseball.
Make no mistake: what the Tigers have now in Fielder and Miguel Cabrera is pretty darn near what the Red Sox had from 2003 to 2008, when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz anchored the Boston lineup. During those six seasons, the Red Sox went to four American League Championship Series and won two world titles. They were the best team in the game. Ramirez was traded in the middle of the 2008 season, and the Sox haven't won a playoff game in the three full years without him.
Two years ago, the Sox were selling us the idea of run prevention. Now they're trading away their starting shortstop a month before spring training, all so they can save a few million bucks that amount to, what, one or two percent of their payroll?
Yikes.
Meanwhile, the Angels (Pujols and Wilson), Tigers (Fielder), Texas Rangers (Yu Darvish, Joe Nathan) and even New York Yankees (Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda) have made more significant acquisitions than the Red Sox have. Even if you believe that the Red Sox are a better team than the dysfunctional club that went 7-20 en route to a 90-72 finish - and they are - you must admit that the field just got a whole lot tougher. The Red Sox are still a heavyweight - we think - but the 2012 American League now projects to be a Battle Royale like no other in recent memory.
And lest anyone forget, the Tampa Bay Rays, who beat out the Sox last fall for what was then the fourth and final playoff spot, have better pitching than you do.
Let's examine what has happened since the historic September collapse that had us all examining the clubhouse culture at Fenway Park. Josh Beckett has stayed. John Lackey has been lost for the season. Terry Francona has been fired and Jonathan Papelbon was allowed to depart via free agency. The Sox picked up Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey in a couple of low-cost trades, but the Sox have been chief among those telling us over the last several years that the performance of relievers is difficult to forecast.
Then came the departure of Scutaro, one of the few Sox players who actually played his tail off down the stretch, demonstrating the kind of grit that so few of his teammates did.
Of course, there is still time for the Sox to make changes and acquisitions, be they today or in July. But here's the problem: if the Sox are serious about staying at or near the luxury tax amount of $178 million, what difference does it make? In retrospect, the Sox went into last season with very little payroll flexibility. Now they're doing the same thing. They have had a collection of players who have shown an inability to stay healthy in recent years - Beckett and Kevin Youkilis chief among them - and they seemingly have no interest in further extending themselves financially to build better depth.
In retrospect, the Sox never had any intention of making any acquisition bigger than Bobby Valentine, upon whom there is now a great deal of pressure, particularly at the start of the season. They're locked into Beckett ($17 million per), Lackey ($16.5 million) and Carl Crawford ($20.3 million), the last of whom just had wrist surgery. And we haven't even mentioned Daisuke Matsuzaka ($8.7 million average).
As we all know, the Red Sox have too much talent to have gone 7-20 in September and missed the playoffs. Maybe, as a result, the Sox will play 2012 as if they have something to prove. And maybe Valentine, too, will have a profound impact. But in the wake of a disastrous finish during which the players shamed the uniform - let's not forget this - the Sox look like they've made nothing more than subtle tweaks while spinning their wheels, all as the other primary contenders in the American League have significantly stepped up their games.
In a vacuum, the Red Sox really may be no worse off than they were a year ago at this time, when many of us dubbed them world beaters.
But in the bigger picture, it sure feels like the rest of the league is passing them by.
While you were shopping ...
Catching up on the little things while pointing out that precisely one year remains on the Mayan calendar...
We have become indisputably spoiled here during the Golden Age of Boston sports, but let's give the Patriots credit for currently possessing the best record in the AFC. New England has deficiencies, to be sure, but the Patriots almost never lose a game they should win. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have dropped games to Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee and San Diego, none of which possesses a winning record.
But I still wouldn't want to play the Ravens in the playoffs.
-- Don't look now, but the Bruins have killed off 36 of their opponents' last 37 power plays and 44 of the last 46. The Bruins rank second in the league in goals per game while having allowed the fewest, and they rank third on the penalty kill, an improving 11th on the power play. About the only thing the Bruins have not done this season is score a shorthanded goal, leaving them as the only team in the NHL without such a tally.
So much for that Cup hangover, eh?
-- Celtics coach Doc Rivers recently acknowledged that the Celtics' window of opportunity is "closing," but let's not kid ourselves. The window is closed. The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat now rule the Eastern Conference -- not necessarily in that order -- and the only question now is how much worse things are going to get before they get better.
And for how long.
-- This is some very rough math, but when adding in the estimated salaries for their arbitration players, including David Ortiz, the Red Sox' currently have a luxury tax payroll in the areas of $175 million. The luxury tax is at $178 million. While that still leaves some room for the Sox to pick up some low-risk, high-reward pitching, a greater question remains.
Are the Sox going to have any flexibility to add during the season, specifically at the trading deadline?
Or are they destined for another list of midseason options that includes dollar-menu buys like Erik Bedard?
-- For those getting amped up about the Patriots' latest run of victories, just remember: in the two previous seasons in which Tom Brady has thrown 35 or more touchdown passes, the Patriots have not won the Super Bowl thanks largely to deficiencies on the other side of the ball.
Which is to say that the Patriots were not balanced enough then and they may not be balanced enough now.
-- Can someone please explain what the Montreal Canadiens saw in Tomas Kaberle?
And for the sake of the close-minded Canadians following, please put the explanation in French.
When the NBA owners locked out the players, did it occur to league owners that the league's collective bargaining agreement needed serious reform and not just a redistribution of revenues? So Chris Paul ended up with the Los Angeles Clippers instead of the Los Angeles Lakers. Fine. But what the NBA needs is a real, honest-to-goodness salary cap free of exceptions and loopholes.
Simply put, the star players in that league have way too much power.
In the NFL, on the other hand, the players don't have enough.
-- Of the pitchers that have come to the major leagues from Japan, how many have been legitimately worth the money? With that in mind, why would the Texas Rangers or Toronto Blue Jays (or anyone else) bid $50 million or more for the right to merely negotiate with Yu Darvish?
And if people suggest that those of us in Boston are tainted (or scarred) by the entire Daisuke Matsuzaka affair, they would be right.
We are.
-- The Baltimore Orioles' pursuit of Prince Fielder is interesting, if for no other reason than Fielder possesses the same "body type" as Mo Vaughn, whom Dan Duquette ushered from Boston 13 years ago. Under new general manager Duquette, the Orioles are in a far different position now than the Red Sox were under Duquette then, but Baltimore is going nowhere unless the Orioles significantly upgrade their pitching in the coming years.
In the interim, Fielder would certainly help ticket sales and boost television ratings. And for what it's worth, Duquette's last two major free agent signings with the Red Sox worked out quite well, bringing Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to Boston.
-- Hall of Fame ballot came in the mail last week. Could reveal which names were checked, but would then have to kill you.
-- First it was Penn State. Then it was Syracuse. Now it's Bill Conlin, the former sportswriter for the Philadelphia Daily News. Anyone else get the feeling that this is all merely the tip of the iceberg in an exploding national scandal?
-- Hey look! Chad Ochocinco caught a touchdown!
-- Since being pulled following the second period of the Bruins' eventual 5-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, Tim Thomas is 3-0 with a 1.33 goals against average and a .965 save percentage. Meanwhile, Tuukka Rask did not allow a goal in four periods.
Shouldn't Claude Julien get some of the credit for that?
-- At this time of year, it is always worth remembering that we live in the greatest sports town in America, that we are truly among the most privileged sports followers in the world, and that the bad times here are never as bad as the bad times in many other places.
Like Cleveland, for example.
Red Sox have done little to improve
What have the Red Sox done thus far to improve?
Of course, more than two months still remain before the start of spring training, so there is ample time for the new duo of Cherington and Valentine to begin putting their fingerprints on the 2012 Red Sox. Nonetheless, the truth is that the Red Sox of today have more questions than they ended the season with, a reality that should drain more confidence from an already hemorrhaging fan base.Now there is increasing talk of the Red Sox' unwillingness to go beyond the $178 million tax threshold, a restriction (if it is true) that seems to explain why the Red Sox have dragged their feet and rearranged the furniture through a laborious offseason.
Since all things start with payroll, we did the math. Adding in Ortiz and estimating salaries where necessary - Jacoby Ellsbury, for example, is eligible for arbitration - the Red Sox already have between $170-$175 million committed under the formula to calculate luxury tax payroll. (You'll have to take our word on this.) That leaves little or no room to address the team's primary area of need - read: pitching - without shuttling some payroll from the big league roster.
Know what that likely means? That the Red Sox aren't really in on someone like Mark Buehrle and they never were. (Let's hope we're proven wrong about this.) It also means that the weight of the Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford acquisitions are being felt now, particularly with regard to Gonzalez' impact on the payroll.
Last year, remember, Gonzalez was on the books for a paltry $5.5 million. The Red Sox announced his seven-year, $154 million contract extension after Opening Day so as manipulate the accounting ledger. The downside is that the bill is coming due now, with Gonzalez' luxury tax number increasing from $5.5 million to a whopping $22 million, a jump of precisely $16.5 million.
Meanwhile, the luxury tax number for Clay Buchholz will jump from roughly $550,000 to $7.5 million, an increase of approximately $7 million. Add it all up and it means the Red Sox essentially spent the money they saved from J.D. Drew ($14 million) and Papelbon ($12.5 million) before the offseason even began.
Ugh.
And now, with Ortiz seemingly destined to come back, the Sox essentially lose whatever payroll flexibility they had left, at least if you hold them to the alleged $178 million ceiling.
Call me crazy, but do the Sox need Ortiz more than they need reliable pitching? Didn't September tell us that the balance on this team has been badly disrupted?
Admittedly, this a transitional time for the organization. Theo Epstein is gone. Terry Francona is gone. Wakefield and Varitek have all but officially joined them, decisions that don't cause nearly the ripples now that they might have years ago. (In this way, Roger Clemens' departure in 1996 altered Red Sox history forever.) The end of the 2011 season left a bad taste in most everyone's mouth, and so the Sox can now cut some long ties without any real public relations fallout.
At the end, this team was too much about the individual and not enough about the collective. So they're purging.
But does subtraction alone make the Sox better? Or were there real on-field issues, too, that the Red Sox have thus far declined to address?
At season's end, Red Sox officials (specifically Epstein) noted that the Sox must look at the entire 2011 season in its aggregate, so let's do that now. The Sox won 90 games. Their starting pitchers and set-up man failed them badly in September. Part of the solution, it seems, is to move Daniel Bard from the bullpen to the starting rotation - the same may be true of Alfredo Aceves - leaving the Sox with a back end of the bullpen that currently features Bobby Jenks.
As such, maybe it's no wonder the Sox are exploring deals for people like Andrew Bailey by dangling Josh Reddick. If you're a Sox fan, given the messages currently seeping from Fenway Park, you probably should expect more moves of the like. A new crop of non-tender free agents will hit the market later this week, and it now seems certain that the Red Sox will opt to shore up their pitching staff by doing what the New York Yankees did last winter, buying people like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon off the discount rack rather than making another mistake like John Lackey.
Here's the problem: just because it worked for the Yankees last season (at least to a point) hardly means it will work now. The Red Sox tried this with Brad Penny and John Smoltz in 2009 and effectively threw $13.5 million out the window. Thanks to Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who combined for about $25 million of dead money against the luxury tax this season, one can only wonder if the Sox have grown a little gun shy of multiyear pitching contracts on the free agent market.
Of all the pitchers currently under the Red Sox control, Buchholz and Bard suddenly seem to be the most important. In fact, barring an unexpected and major pitching acquisition, the success of the 2012 Red Sox may well depend on them. At this stage, we know that Jon Lester is the only truly durable starter in the Boston rotation. We know that Josh Beckett, even if he is focused and fit, will likely fade in September. And we know that Lackey is out for the year and Matsuzaka out for at least half of it, the latter's contribution after a potential return likely limited to minimal.
We also know that Aceves has never pitched more than 114 innings and has had a history of injury. And we know Jenks was out of shape and worthless in 2011.
That leaves Buchholz and Bard, both of whom have considerable upside. But is Buchholz the Cy Young candidate of 2010 or the brittle breadstick of 2011? Can Bard hold up and be effective as a starter? There is every chance that each will pitch well in 2012, but what the Red Sox have in Buchholz and Bard is a pair of young righthanders with terrific stuff who can be among the better pitchers in the game.
At the moment, in fact, the Red Sox seem to be banking on that.
And so in the interim, in the wake of a September collapse from which pieces are still tumbling, we all wonder: What if Buchholz and Bard are not up to it?
Chopping the local sports scene into four quarters ...
Truth be told, the first three quarters told us nothing, too.
The Pats are 9-3 this morning and once again possessors of the top seed in the AFC, but they have very little to gain in the final weeks of the 2011 season. New England should encounter some resistance in the final four games of this season - at Washington, at Denver, both Miami and Buffalo at home - but there should be nothing to prevent the Patriots from going 13-3 and earning a first-round bye when all is said and done.
That said, two questions endure from yesterday's affair.
First, is it really necessary for the fans at Gillette Stadium to boo Adam Vinatieri? (Weak.)
Second, is it really necessary for Bill Belichick to have the Patriots throwing out of the no-huddle offense holding a 31-10 lead with under seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter?
In the latter instance, nothing Belichick can say justifies the decision. Belichick likes to answer every question about his strategic choices by saying that he is "just trying to win a game," but throwing out of the no-huddle with under seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter was downright stupid and indicated no such thing. At that stage of the game, the Patriots should have been trying to milk the clock. Instead, Brady took a needless hit on a third-and-13 play that led to a Patriots punt, after which the Colts scored.
With the score then 31-17, Brian Hoyer entered the game. Does that all make any sense? Up 31-10, Belichick subjected Brady to a needless hit. Up 31-17, he put Hoyer in. That certainly suggests that Belichick recognized the error of his ways, but he never should have had Brady throwing at that stage of the game in the first place.
Sometimes, the man's ego just gets in the way.
Let's hope the Bobby Valentine acquisition does not prove to be the Red Sox' biggest move of the offseason. With the manager now in place entering the winter meetings, the Red Sox have needs to address on their pitching staff, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Presumably, there will be a substantive acquisition in there somewhere.
Under the circumstances, with closers going at inflated prices, one can only wonder if the Sox might be far better served to put their money in a starter, specifically Mark Buehrle. If relievers like Heath Bell and Ryan Madson command three- and four-year deals, the Sox would seem far better off committing three years and even $45 million to someone like Buehrle, who has a picturesque delivery and a long history of health.
In any case, here's what you shouldn't want to see: trepidation. So the Sox have made some bad free agent signings. So what? Does that mean they're all bad? If the Red Sox can pull off a trade for a young, healthy pitcher, so be it. If not, they need durability on that staff, and Buehrle is about the closest thing to a sure bet on the market.
The Red Sox don't need to abstain from the free agent market, folks. They just need to make more prudent decisions.
I mean, in retrospect, was giving John Lackey five years just utter foolishness or what? The man had a history of elbow problems. And everyone knew it.
Let's all pump the brakes on the Bruins for a moment. As extraordinary as this 13-0-1 run has been, this is still just the regular season. Roughly a year ago at this time, the Bruins were struggling enough that Cam Neely came out and seemed to put Claude Julien's job on the line, at which point the Bruins awoke and began playing with greater urgency.
Of course, the Bruins won the Stanley Cup. And while that title has changed everything with regard to the perception of the team and organization, let's not put these bruins in the same discussion with the Bruins of the late '60s and early '70s just yet. Those Bruins were stacked with Hall-of-Fame-caliber talent, and we simply do not know whether this club has quite the same staying power.
That said, the Bruins certainly are positioned to have one of the great eras in their history, which is something we said a year ago. (You can look it up.) The signing of David Krejci further stabilizes a deep and talented roster that can skate, hit, score and play defense, meaning the Bruins can play any style of game, against basically any opponent, anywhere and anytime.
Still, tonight's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins bears close watching, for obvious reasons. These are two of the last three Stanley Cup champions and, currently, the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference. The injuries to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin last year meant the Pens were absent from Boston's path to the championship, and we still do not know if the Bruins can defeat the Penguins when it matters.
Of course, we also don't know if the Penguins can defeat these Bruins, who seem fortified and emboldened by their Stanley Cup championship.
With all due respect to the most loyal Celtics fans, the window closed in Game 7 against the Lakers in June 2010. Anyone who believes the Celtics can win the title this year by simply adding some small pieces around Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo is missing the point. The Celtics are getting older and slower while the Bulls and Heat are getting better and deeper, which is why Danny Ainge must act aggressively.
Nobody ever said Rondo was a bad player. The question isn't even whether he's a great player. The question is whether he's a franchise player, the kind an organization can build around the way the Celtics built around Garnett, the indisputable centerpiece of the Celtics' latest championship runs. And it is difficult to think of Rondo in those terms when he is a career .622 shooter at the free throw line coming off a season in which he shot .568.
As a result, Ainge owes it to himself -- and, more importantly, the Celtics -- to explore any and all deals for Rondo, who remains his best bargaining chip. If Ainge can get something closer to a franchise player back, even for the short term, he must consider it. The Al Jefferson-for-Kevin Garnett swap was built on a similar principle, and nobody has complained about the loss of Jefferson for quite some time now.
Granted, Garnett is still here, albeit in a reduced capacity.
But is there anyone who still wouldn't have made that trade?
Valentine, Red Sox have issues to address
In the end, it hardly matters whether Bobby Valentine was hired by Ben Cherington or Larry Lucchino, John Henry or Tom Werner. What matters is whether this can work.
So while the Red Sox seemed to spend as much time yesterday propping up Cherington as they did introducing the telegenic Bobby V, the major pieces are at least in place for the Red Sox to once again tend to their baseball team. The major questions now center on Cherington, Valentine, their philosophies and relationship, all of which will go a long way in determining the roster decisions the Red Sox now must make.
For example: Valentine yesterday sidestepped a question about Daniel Bard, whose role seems to be increasing in importance daily, particularly amid the news that free agent closer Heath Bell has agreed to a three-year contract (with a vesting option for a fourth season) with the Miami Marlins for an average of $9 million per season. If the Red Sox hold true to their opinions on relievers - namely, that performance is unpredictable - it is difficult to imagine them committing three years (with an option for a fourth) to anyone,which immediately introduces questions at the end of the game.
And if Bobby V thinks Bard should close, then isn't it reasonable to assume that is where Bard will end up?
Think about it: When the Red Sox convene at the winter meetings in Dallas next week, will you be more interested in hearing from Bobby V or from Cherington? Whose opinion will carry more weight? Eight years ago, the marriage of Theo Epstein and Terry Francona seemed far more like a partnership, if for no other reason than the fact that neither had the credentials he possesses now. Valentine, on the other hand, has been a manager for 2,189 games while Cherington has been a GM for zero, which certainly creates a far different dynamic.
From 2004 through 2011, for the most part, it often felt as if Epstein and Francona shared parallel, if not intertwined, growth lines. But Valentine and Cherington are starting from two very different places, and suddenly it feels as if Larry Lucchino, Bobby Valentine and the rest of the Red Sox organization are bringing along a young general manager more than it feels like Cherington is in charge.
Really, can we all stop trying to kid ourselves about that? The Red Sox spent an inordinate amount of time yesterday emphasizing that Valentine was Cherington's "recommendation" and that Cherington "spearheaded" the process, undoubtedly coaching Cherington to ensure that the general manager said "I" and not "we." (Doesn't that fly in the face of a "collaborative" effort?) Thanks largely to their downright laborious managerial search, the Red Sox undercut the credibility of their own general manager, and they know it. So now they're trying to rebuild it.
If Cherington is as smart and level-headed as we think he is, he will brush all this off and securely assert himself as he has always done. Anyone who knows Cherington knows he has never been an "I" guy so much as he has been a "we" guy, and that should be celebrated as a strength. If this new administration is going to succeed, after all, the Red Sox need more people with Cherington's attitude and fewer who concern themselves with appearance, image or power.
When you win, guys, we celebrate you as a team. It's only when you lose that we start asking who's in charge.
In that way, perhaps, Cherington could be a good fit for Bobby V, the managerial equivalent to a bonus baby. Bobby V. was a childhood star who won everything from pancake-eating contests and ballroom dancing competitions to the school science fair, and he hardly shies away from the spotlight. Bobby V clearly likes talking about himself. Bobby V is accustomed to the attention. Bobby V will be front and center on most days, and that will be a perfectly acceptable happening so long as Cherington does not want to be out there instead.
Based on what we think we know about him, Cherington doesn't. If he does, then he will end up like former New York Mets general manager Steve Phillips, squared off against Valentine the way Epstein once squared off against Lucchino.
And with no championship to show for it.
The difference in this case, of course, is that Valentine is hardly here for the long haul. Quite the contrary. Valentine will be 62 in the spring and he is here on a two-year contract, which sends a very clear message. Valentine might have a year to find his way, assess his roster, make judgments. But if the Red Sox are not in the thick of championship contention by the middle of 2013 at the very latest, Valentine will spend even less time here than Grady Little did, and he may end up doing more harm than good.
You have the team here, Bobby. You have the payroll. If you can't make more noise with this club than you did with the Texas Rangers or the Mets, it's on you.
That said, pitching is now the obvious emphasis for the Red Sox, who have needs in both the starting rotation and bullpen. Durability at the front end is a huge question for this team. Assuming the Sox elect to bring back Josh Beckett -- the Valentine-Beckett dynamic would be interesting, to say the least -- Jon Lester is still the only starter in the Boston rotation that seems built to last. John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka are already injured. Clay Buchholz did not pitch after June 16. Beckett has a history of nagging ailments and problems, the latter of which now includes his attitude.
Alfredo Aceves? It's a nice idea, but his 114 innings last year were a career high. And taking either Bard or Aceves from the bullpen would leave sizable holes in a relief corps that already has lost Papelbon, introducing risk into two areas instead of one. Bobby Jenks? Good luck.
Clearly, there is a lot to consider.
The best news from all of this, of course, is that change alone will benefit the Red Sox on some level. At the end, under Francona, players clearly grew a little too comfortable. They were protected, catered to, enabled. Beckett's insistence on Jason Varitek alone proved that, especially after Francona spent part of last spring indicating that the Red Sox would not have personal catchers. The players got their way far too frequently, it turned out, and a new manager (as well as a new general manager) means they should be on their toes more.
For precisely how long remains to be seen.
Because unlike Terry Francona eight years ago, Bobby Valentine brings with him an entirely new set of issues.
Checking in on Bruins, Patriots, and Sox
Hitting on the big three of the Patriots, Red Sox and Bruins while giving thanks that we live in the greatest sports town in America ...
So is this what the remainder of the regular season is going to be like for the Patriots? By virtue of last night's laughable 34-3 win over the hapless Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots now own the top seed in the AFC. Though the Patriots were handled with relative ease by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh's two losses to the Baltimore Ravens means the Steelers currently qualify for the playoffs only as a wildcard team.
How 'bout them apples? At the moment, from 1 through 6, the current seeds in the AFC are: New England, Houston, Baltimore, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. For the Patriots, this is true despite a defense that still ranks 32d in the league in yards allowed. And prior to last night's layup against the sloppy, out-over-his-skis Tyler Palko and the Chiefs, the Patriots ranked 20th among the 32 NFL in average points allowed per game.
Admittedly, this week's upcoming game against the Philadelphia Eagles and, perhaps, Michael Vick (broken ribs), bears some watching. But beyond that and the novelty of seeing the Pats play against the overhyped Tim Tebow, the remainder of the regular season is a collection of should-win games against a run of quarterbacks that includes Curtis Painter, Rex Grossman or John Beck, and Matt Moore. If the Patriots finish the season at something other than 12-4, it will qualify as a borderline catastrophe.
Fact: The only things we stand to learn about the Patriots over the balance of the season are all bad. If they play well, it will be because they should. In the big picture, relative to 2009 and 2010, we still don't know if the Patriots can truly win when it counts, the recent home playoff losses to Baltimore and the New York Jets still serving as the backdrop to this season.
The only way the Patriots can change that is by winning in January. As we learned last year, home field guarantees them nothing. And that might be especially true this year, in AFC where the difference between the first seed and the last is marginal.
* * *
Jacoby Ellsbury had a marvelous season, but any suggestion that he deserved the American League Most Valuable Player Award is inconsistent. Twelve years ago, Boston was in an uproar when then Sox ace Pedro Martinez finished second to Texas Rangers catcher Ivan Rodriguez in the balloting, two of the 28 voters leaving Martinez off their ballots entirely. Martinez deserved the MVP then just as Verlander deserved it now, and to think otherwise would be to commit the sin that so many voters have committed.
In 1999, George King, the Yankees beat writer for the New York Post, had an alleged bias against pitchers, though he had Yankees lefthander David Wells on his ballot only a year earlier. (He was doubly guilty.) This year, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News gave his first-place vote to Rangers infielder and designated hitter Michael Young, who might not have been the MVP of his own team. Meanwhile, in Cleveland, Jim Ingraham of the News-Herald left Verlander off his ballot entirely while Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon-Journal placed Verlander eighth.
In the case of Ingraham, he explained his decision by saying he does not believe pitchers should be eligible for the Most Valuable Player Award, defying the voting rules that specifically state pitchers are to be considered.
The inconsistency isn't with the result of this election, folks. It's with the voters who arbitrarily make up their own rules.
* * *
As for the Red Sox' never-ending managerial search, the return of Gene Lamont is, in a word, curious. Those who know Lamont know him as a knowledgeable, longtime baseball man, but he hardly seems a fit with the ownership and upper management team of John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino. Lamont looks far more like the choice of Ben Cherington, which cannot help but make one wonder if the Red Sox are not trying to make it appear as if Cherington still has a say in the process following the rejection of Dale Sveum.
Now, if Lamont actually ends up with the job, we will all have to admit that we clearly misread recent developments. But if the Red Sox had designs of bringing Lamont back for a second interview, they could have done it a long time ago, before Valentine arrived in Boston yesterday for his "formal" interview and exchange with the Boston media.
In the end, all that matters is that the Red Sox end up with a capable manager, but here's the truth: the Sox have been all over the map on this thing. Sveum got a pair opf interviews, but was rejected by ownership. Lamont did not get a second interview until after the Valentine news leaked. Along the way, the Sox have made their new, young and responsible general manager look entirely powerless, as if Cherington has changed titles, but not jobs.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have suffered only losses to their roster - namely Jonathan Papelbon - though that is likely to change now that the free agency compensation rules have been clarified and that tomorrow night's deadline to offer arbitration (David Ortiz) is upon us.
* * *
A winning streak is a winning streak is a winning streak, but let's be honest: entering this week, the Bruins generally have been beating up on the weak sisters of the NHL of late. During their eight-game stretch of wins entering last night, the Bruins have defeated teams like the Islanders, Senators, Devils, Blue Jackets and Oilers -- none of whom were in the playoffs last year.
Which is why last night's game against the Montreal Canadiens meant something.
Indeed, the Canadiens are on the outside looking in at the Eastern Conference playoff teams at the moment, but we all know how they play the Bruins: tough. The Bruins entered this week with games at Montreal, at Buffalo and at home against Detroit, the last of which will be a nationally-televised affair in the traditional Black Friday tilt at the TD Garden.
That said, after a dreadfully slow start, the Bruins have been clicking on all cylinders, winning both high-scoring games and, now, low-scoring ones. All of that cannot help but make one wonder whether last spring's journey was the beginning of the next great era in Bruins history, and not just the end of a historic drought.
For Patriots, soft schedule leads to hard questions
In the AFC this season, the competition is truly American. Virtually everyone has a chance. Almost no one is discounted. And so the landscape changes on a week-to-week basis.
That considered, it's time for the Patriots to truly identify themselves. And to ask whether their creampuff schedule helps them or hurts them.
Fresh off a Sunday night thrashing of the suddenly reeling New York Jets, the Patriots return to the field tonight against the Kansas City Chiefs, their proteges to the west. All signs point to a victory. The Chiefs are without Matt Cassel and the Patriots are at home, and there has been decidedly little discussion or hype about this game for a one very simple reason.
The Patriots are favored to win.
By a lot.
Which is what concerns those of us who always need something to fret about.
Take a good look at the AFC standings this morning, people. Save for four teams -- the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins -- everyone else is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The entire conference feels like one enormous mass of relative mediocrity, a fact that brings with it both positives and negatives. In the AFC this year, most everyone has a shot, which means just about anyone can be beaten.
Precisely where the Patriots stand on that spectrum is certainly debatable, and we are all inclined to believe that New England is closer to the top of the conference than the middle. But how do we really know? In the last month, the Patriots have lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants, defeated the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets. The Pats have oscillated from disappointing losers (at Pittsburgh) to unexpected victors (at the Jets), devoid of that quality that has defined them during the large majority of the Bill Belichick era.
Consistency.
Beginning tonight, the Patriots have another opportunity to prove their worth, at least as much as any team can do so given the schedule the Patriots now possess. With a 6-3 record heading into the final seven weeks of the season, the Patriots have games remaining against Kansas City (4-5), Philadelphia (4-6), Indianapolis (0-10), Washington (3-7), Denver (5-5), Miami (3-7) and Buffalo (5-5). Combined those teams are 24-45. Not a single one of them possesses a winning record.
And yet, as much as we all know the Patriots should win all (or at least most) of those games, there is still great uncertainty given the schizophrenic nature of this club's behavior.
But really. After home victories against the Jets and Cowboys during which the Patriots defense appeared to show some signs of progress, New England looked relatively inept against the Steelers and Giants. Then New England came off and defeated the Jets with a defense that included Jeff Tarpinian and Sterling Moore, the latest in a series of no-name passengers on the carousel that is Belichick's defense.
Meanwhile, the offense hasn't been all that steady, either. The Cowboys, Steelers and Giants all smacked the Patriots around, the New England offense at that time looking as predictable and vulnerable as it did in 2009.
All of that brings us to the remaining Patriots schedule, a procession filled at the moment with backup quarterbacks and faceless counterparts. You say Sterling Moore, they say Tyler Palko. You say Tarpinian, they say Matt Moore. Painter, Tebow and Grossman (or Beck) might sound look a good collection of accountants, but as far as NFL quarterbacks go, it compares far more accurately with Millen, Wilson and Hodson.
What does this mean for the Patriots? In all likelihood, bad quarterbacking, which will be a good thing for the Patriots' ultimate placement in the AFC hierarchy. New England still might actually be able to secure a first-round bye. The question is whether that will merely set the Patriots up for another one-and-done performance in the playoffs, something rapidly becoming the latest New England and New Year tradition.
Seriously. Given the developments on the New England defense this season, the Patriots' only chance to get out of the AFC is for their current defense to improve dramatically. Ty Law is not walking through that door. Maybe Andre Carter will continue playing like Andre Tippett, but the Pats' best chance is otherwise to get unexpected and continued improvement from the group of defensive backs and linebackers they possess.
Given that reality, a game against a good quarterback might help. Heck, Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer would qualify as a major upgrade at this point. Instead, the Patriots will generally get a succession of nothings and nobodies, which will hardly prepare them for another meeting with Ben Roethlisberger.
But then, short of Big Ben, the Patriots aren't likely to see a truly above-average quarterback until the divisional round at the earliest, unless you count Andy Dalton. Or Carson Palmer. Or Matt Hasselbeck.
And we don't. (Philip Rivers is a maybe.)
In the end, here's the point: how much do the Pats really have to gain in their final seven weeks? Philadelphia is a potentially intriguing matchup in Week 12 if for no other reason than the Eagles have talent, though Michael Vick missed last night's game against the Giants with broken ribs. Even if Vick plays, he is back to being a wildcard at best, which brings us back to the original issues.
Beginning tonight, the Patriots are likely to win a lot of games down the stretch of this NFL season.
But how much are we going to learn about them?
And more importantly, how much better will they really get?
Bobby Valentine could be the short-term solution for Red Sox
Has this all been a sham?
Or are the Red Sox such slaves to the process that every decision is akin to giving birth?
We've said this before and we'll say it again: Managerial searches are not about finding the best candidate so much as they are about finding the right candidate. Terry Francona himself was proof. Nobody ever said that Dale Sveum was going to be the next Jim Leyland, so any suggestion that the Red Sox have lost out to Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs here is a load of hooey. That is hardly the point. The question is whether the Red Sox' bureaucratic methods help them or hurt them, whether the general manager is an errand boy or a decision maker.
With the Red Sox, especially, titles clearly mean nothing. Epstein learned that during his first three years on the job. That is why he temporarily resigned and fought for power during the fall and winter of 2005, the last occasion the Red Sox went through as unsettling a time (at least from the outside) as this one.
And so, if Larry Lucchino is truly the man who runs the Red Sox, as principal owner John Henry has publicly stated, that is certainly fine. Lucchino is beyond capable. But let's stop with the charade and stop putting any stock into what Ben Cherington says or does.
As for the megalomaniacal and polarizing Bobby V., he is as capable of managing the Red Sox as anyone else, if not more so. Just don't expect an eight-year run like the one the Sox just shared with Francona. Valentine will be 62 in the spring, but he has the energy and vibe of someone about 10 years younger. Valentine is (or was) an excellent game manager and skilled psychological manipulator, which is to say that he knows how to push buttons, play politics and self promote.
The Red Sox can win with him, to be sure, and another World Series championship would obviously make his hiring worthwhile.
But he would likely last two or three years here, absolute tops.
On many levels, given those realities, Valentine would be a good fit here. The Red Sox do not lack for talent. They are not rebuilding like the Cubs. The next manager of the Red Sox will be expected to contend for a championship right out of the gate, and any failure to do so will prompt immediate and significant criticism. The Sox have shortcomings, to be sure, but they remain a big-market team with big resources and enough talent to beat just about anyone, anytime, anywhere.
Whether Valentine alone could tap into a roster that went 7-20 would remain to be seen, but the hiring of such a high-profile manager seems to suggest that the Red Sox would not make significant changes to their roster. Someone like Josh Beckett would be more likely to stay with the hiring of Valentine than the hiring of Sveum, if for no other reason than the fact that Valentine would be here to push buttons and maximize talent.
Bobby V. wouldn't be here to bring along Josh Reddick. He would be here to win.
Now the question that warrants asking, despite the belief from Valentine's most ardent supporters that he is a brilliant manager, one of the best in the world: why hasn't he won anything? In 15 years as a skipper with the Texas Rangers and New York Mets, Valentine has never won so much as a single division title. He has won three playoff series, two coming in 2000, when he took the Mets to the World Series. In the two years after that season, the Mets went 157-166, Valentine's personality becoming such an irritant that he and then-general manager Steve Phillips fought for power while the Mets clubhouse disintegrated.
Fine. In professional sports, managers and coaches are hired to be fired, and every relationship runs its course. Epstein and Francona worked brilliantly side by side for eight years, and things got ugly at the end here, too.
Does that make Valentine any more or less of a gamble than, say, Sveum or Sandy Alomar? No. Of course not. But it doesn't make him any less of one, either. Valentine has something neither of those men possesses - a disproportionately sizable ego - which would certainly make for an interesting dynamic within the walls at Fenway Park. Lucchino is no shrinking violet. At some point, probably sooner than later, the two would almost certainly butt heads.
After all, why do you think Billy Beane ultimately turned down the job when the Red Sox tried to hire him in 2002? And before you suggest that Beane wanted to remain close to his daughter and family, remember that the Red Sox were willing to let him spend a significant amount of time working out of an office on the West Coast.
Meanwhile, in the middle of all this rests Cherington, the new general manager of the club, at least in title. Unlike Epstein, who was 28 when he was named GM, Cherington is 37. He does not need his hand held. In the wake of seemingly pointless managerial interviews, one can only wonder where Cherington truly rests with regard to Valentine, who seems to be the choice of ownership. And if Cherington does not want Bobby V. as his skipper, then what kind of foundation does that create for the relationship allegedly at the center of the Red Sox baseball operation?
Remember: when he departed, Epstein told us that he and Francona bonded during the interviewing process.
With regard to Bobby V. and Cherington, one can only wonder whether the process is instead serving as a wedge.
For Red Sox, dugout search goes well beyond the manager
But remember: teams like the Red Sox, Cubs and Cardinals are not solely looking for managers.
In many cases, they are looking for coaches, too.
If you are surprised that the soon-to-be 65-year-old Lamont has appeared on the list of interviewees for the Red Sox' managerial vacancy, do not be. In baseball, anything is possible. There is also every chance (or an even greater one) that the Red Sox want Lamont to serve as bench coach for a younger, more inexperienced manager -- Dale Sveum, perhaps -- and that general manager Ben Cherington is assembling the staff that will oversee the Red Sox' roster in 2012 and, perhaps, beyond.In Boston, after all, we have seen this sort of thing before. Following the 1996 season, for instance, the Red Sox interviewed Grady Little for their managerial opening only to hire him as bench coach for Jimy Williams. And given the recent maneuverings involving Mike Maddux, who is due to interview for the Cubs' managerial opening today, one can only wonder whether the Red Sox had designs of luring Maddux in as their pitching coach, a far more convincing explanation beyond "family" for Maddux' withdrawal from consideration.
With all due respect to Maddux, the distance between the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Boston has nothing to do with anything. If the Red Sox were the only team ready to give him a manager's job, he'd hardly turn it down over an additional 1,500 miles in a continuously shrinking universe. What Maddux knows, perhaps, is that the Cubs intend to give him either their manager's job or no worse a position than the Red Sox do, and he isn't about to go from Texas to Boston for a lateral move.
Especially when it was reported last week that Sveum already is a leading candidate for the Boston job, an unsurprising development given Sveum's previous connection to the Red Sox (as a coach for the deposed Terry Francona) and his indisputable baseball acumen.
During Sveum's stint here as a third base coach, players privately raved about his knowledge. They respected him immensely. And they respected him not because he was nice to them or easy on them or allowed them latitude, but because he possessed real, tactical insight to which they could relate. They knew that he knew what he was talking about, which means they believed in him.
What someone like Sveum does not have is in-game managing experience, which is precisely why he needs someone like Lamont, a baseball lifer who has been in professional baseball for nearly 50 years. During his time in the game, Lamont has served as a coach, player and manager, and he has advised skippers ranging from Williams to Jim Leyland. When Williams and Dan Duquette were engaged in something of a power struggle during Williams' managerial tenure -- Duquette's reluctance to pay Little led to Little's departure for Cleveland -- former Sox executive Lee Thomas bridged the gap by suggesting Lamont as a bench coach, a move that stabilized the Boston staff.
Maybe the Red Sox today want Lamont as their manager, but it seems unlikely. Closer inspection of the Red Sox' model suggests the Sox are trying to assemble a staff that can cover all bases, the way they did when they flanked Theo Epstein with Bill Lajoie, among others, in the fall of 2002. Try thinking of Sveum and Lamont as a baseball version of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, a tandem of energy and experience that gives the Red Sox comprehensive coverage in the clubhouse and dugout.
Does that mean Sveum is a lock for the job? No. But it does give us some insight of what Cherington may be trying to build. Maybe Cherington wants Lovullo as his manager, or even Alomar. As in free agency, there are lots of moving pieces. But the greater likelihood is that Cherington went into the entire process with a plan, with names on his list for manager, bench coach, pitching coach and other positions, looking at the entire assembly of manager and coaches as a group.
Whether or not he is the manager, after all, someone like Lovullo would be important because he managed in the Red Sox minor league system and might have some relationships with younger Boston players. Someone like Alomar could help bridge any cultural gap that might exist in any clubhouse between American and Hispanic players. For Cherington, the idea is to close any holes that might exist in his clubhouse and dugout structure, and we all know that the 2011 Red Sox had plenty of those.
Where this all ends up remains difficult to say, but after the last 10-20 years of Red Sox history, this much is clear: the Red Sox don’t need the best manager on the market so much as they need the right manager for their existing operation. Once you get past the big names in any managerial search -- Leyland, Tony La Russa and their respective peers -- handicapping the field is difficult for those of us on the outside. Is any of us really equipped to know whether Maddux would make a better manager in Boston than Sveum? Hell no. What we look for then is the logic behind the decision, the philosophy, because every organization and every general manager must have a vision of what he is trying to accomplish.
In the end, barring the unexpected emergence of a big-name candidate -- given the Red Sox hiring history under this administration, that seems unlikely -- what the Red Sox are trying to do here is just as important as with whom. In fact, in the wake of the chicken-fried finish to September, the identity of the pitching coach might be every bit as important as that of the manager. Cherington is not empowering one man here so much as he is building the nucleus of the dugout and clubhouse operation, and there are lots of elements to cover beyond pitching changes and the hit-and-run.
In the fall of 2003, after all, few in Boston were inspired when the Red Sox hired Terry Francona as their manager.
But as it turned out, even if the Red Sox didn't hire the biggest name on the market at the time, they found the best fit.
And they surrounded him with an effective support structure.
A second chance for the Duke
In the end, in the eyes of many, Dan Duquette came to symbolize most everything that was wrong with the old-guard Red Sox, from the perceived arrogance to the detachment to the spectacular failure. What we know now is that Duquette and Theo Epstein were not as far apart as many would like to believe, at least when it comes to matters of baseball.
Nine years later, Duquette is all but officially back, the announcement that he will be the next general manager of the Baltimore Orioles to come as soon as tomorrow. Duquette needs the Orioles as much (or more) as the Orioles need Duquette, both parties in need of rehabilitating their credibility and image in the wake of what has been a forgettable decade. And so maybe this is a match made for redemption, a team and its chief baseball executive both believing they have been given another chance.
Where Duquette most notably failed in Boston was in the area of public and media relations, blunders even he would acknowledge. He effectively did so, in fact, during the fall of 2007, shortly after the Red Sox won their second world title in four years under the watch of John Henry, Larry Lucchino, Tom Werner and, of course, Epstein.
"I'm confident I made mistakes with the Red Sox,” Duquette said at the time. “I made a personal inventory of what those mistakes were and how I could have made different choices. But you know, if you look at my body of work [in Boston], there were a couple of things we did. We turned them into playoff contenders and we rebuilt the farm system, and we made the Red Sox a more diverse international brand. Are there things I would have done differently? Sure. There's a bunch of 'em. But that's water under the bridge at this point."
Water under the bridge, it seems, for even the Orioles, who are clearly desperate for a general manager and have perhaps the worst organizational reputation in all of baseball. Toronto Blue Jays executive Tony Lacava was offered the job as Baltimore GM and turned the O's down, which should tell you plenty. The Baltimore franchise of today is generally seen as a dysfunctional collection of bureaucratic buffoons, an image owner Peter Angelos has carefully carved for his franchise through continued meddling and ineptitude.Duquette knows this, one must assume, but he’s hardly in a position to care. In the last nine years, he has all but vanished from the baseball landscape. Duquette’s image took such a beating in the wake of Red Sox failures from 2000 to 2002 that no one in baseball would go near him, which is both unfair and unfortunate. Anyone with half a brain could have told you that Duquette did a far better job in Boston than anyone has given him credit for, at least if you examine the facts.
When Duquette took over the Red Sox in late January 1994, the team was coming off two consecutive losing seasons and headed for a strike-shortened third. (The 1994 team was all but completely built when he assumed control.) The 1992-94 seasons remain the darkest and most backward time in modern Red Sox history, the Red Sox posting a .472 winning percentage that ranked 21st among what was then a 28-team structure.
The Red Sox weren’t just bad, folks. They were a mess.
Over the next eight seasons, from 1995 through 2002, the Red Sox posted a .544 winning percentage that was fifth-best in the game. They went to the playoffs three times. During that period of time, Duquette drafted or acquired Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, David Eckstein, Shea Hillenbrand, and Johnny Damon. Manny Ramirez, whom Duquette signed during the winter of 2000-01, remains the greatest free acquisition in Red Sox history. Additionally, prospects in the Boston system at the time of Duquette’s departure comprised the majority of compensation in deals for Cliff Floyd, Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (the last two of whom came together in a the deal that sent Hanley Ramirez and pitcher Anibal Sanchez, another Duquette product, to the Florida Marlins).
When Duquette was fired, the Red Sox had gone from three straight losing seasons to a 93-win team. To their credit, Henry, Werner, Lucchino and Epstein built on that, bringing the Red Sox to the heights they achieved in 2004 and 2007. In the aftermath, all of the credit went to the new regime and virtually none to the old, largely because Duquette alienated the Red Sox fan base and media corps with a bunker mentality that made Bill Belichick look like Ronald Reagan.
Don’t misunderstand. Current Sox owners and administrators, including Epstein, have generally done a very good job with the franchise. But the perception that the Duquette years were a black hole is terribly biased. So Duquette didn’t win a championship. So what? (He has plenty of company there.) He also had roughly half the payroll of the existing Sox operation, which made it a little more difficult to build a rotation behind Martinez.
Maybe Duquette wasn’t the best general manager in the game or even in Red Sox history. But he wasn’t the worst, either, and his subsequent absence from the game had far more to do with the fact that he can be an introvert more than it did with professional ineptitude.
Shame on us. Shame on all of baseball. We put more stock in the wrapping paper than what was in the box. If Duquette had a personable assistant GM like say, JP Ricciardi, many of his problems might have been avoided. Instead, the resentment built, and the Duquette era was remembered and chronicled as a colossal failure when it was not.
In Baltimore, Duquette now will have the chance to rebuild his career with a franchise that has been among the worst in baseball over the last 14 years. Since the start of the 1998 season, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have a worse winning percentage than the Orioles. (It is worth noting that the Royals’ GM, Dayton Moore, was once regarded as one of baseball’s up-and-comers and was nearly hired by the Red Sox in the fall of 2005. He withdrew his name from consideration in Boston.) Baltimore is in such bad shape that executives turn down the Orioles, not the other way around.
Duquette, of course, was hardly in a position to say no.
During his time in Boston, Duquette emphasized many of the same things Epstein did, albeit in far less polished language. He spoke of rebuilding the Red Sox through the draft and player development. He talked of expanding the team’s interests in international free agency. Duquette even used sabermetric analysis, something not nearly as accepted then as it is now, though there certainly is a distinction to be drawn between the respected Bill James and Mike Gimbel, the latter an eccentric statistician whose public unveiling by Gordon Edes, then of the Globe, led to the notion that the Red Sox were consulting a crackpot.
As Epstein, Billy Beane and most any other modern baseball man would tell you, Duquette had the right idea with Gimbel. He just had the wrong guy.
That said, there remains one obvious difference between the Duquette and Epstein eras, at least as it pertains to baseball. Under Duquette, the Red Sox traded away many of their prospects for proven major leaguers. Under Epstein, the Sox better developed and cultivated them. The latter is something Duquette now must do a far better job of with the Orioles, once a fertile factory of young baseball talent and now a wasteland.
Baltimore, in some ways, is now what Boston was 17 years ago.
"The most important part of the philosophy was to expand our scouting network on an international basis and bring diversity to the ballclub,” Duquette said upon taking over the Red Sox in 1994. “We got involved in the Dominican, in Venezuela, in Japan and in Korea. We put our emphasis on signing and developing young pitchers, even though we knew we would probably have to trade those players before they were ready because of the interest of our fans base and the need to field a competitive team year in and year out."
In Baltimore, the objectives, for the moment, are simpler. The Orioles are a laughingstock. They are easily the weakest sisters of the challenging AL East. They have been beaten, rejected and all but spit on in recent years.
Dan Duquette can certainly relate to that.
Assessing the Red Sox roster, needs
From Larry Lucchino to Ben Cherington, the Red Sox already are offering us a glimpse into their plan. They need to reassess how they attack free agency, Lucchino said. They need more signings like Alfredo Aceves, said Cherington. And all of it suggests the Red Sox will not be in the market for a blockbuster free agent this winter.
Which is good.
Because they don’t need to be.
Talent was never the issue with the 2011 Red Sox, whose historic collapse in September had far more to do with commitment, heart and focus. Starting pitching was obviously a factor, too. Between now and spring training, it is incumbent upon Cherington to oversee the roster changes that will mean far more than the identity of a new manager, unless the Sox stun us all and hire a high-profile manager.
Do not misunderstand. A managerial change will likely help this team because it will put everyone on their toes again, at least to some degree. But the Red Sox also have roster issues worth greater consideration.
INFIELD
By picking up the option on shortstop Marco Scutaro ($6 million), the Red Sox effectively locked up their entire infield. Barring trade, Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis all will return in 2012, though the retention of Scutaro does raise some longer-term questions.
This is a big year for shortstop Jose Iglesias, who batted .235 with a .554 OPS in 101 games at Triple-A Pawtucket this year. Remember that the Sox signed Iglesias in 2009, just weeks before they nailed down Scutaro. Part of the reason the Sox gave Scutaro a two-year deal with an option for a third year was because they thought Iglesias might be ready by now. Had the Sox declined that $6 million option, Scutaro still could have returned for $3.5 million, a pay decrease built into the contract because he would have returned as a utility man.
If Iglesias continues to struggle offensively in 2012, the Red Sox could be faced with a long-term dilemma at the position. The 2012 free agent market looks thin at shortstop, meaning a trade (Hanley Ramirez, anyone?) might be the only solution.
Beyond shortstop, Kevin Youkilis gives Cherington some flexibility this offseason because of his versatility. So let’s speculate for a moment. Because Youkilis (33 in March) has missed 128 games over the last three years, might it not make some sense to employ him as the designated hitter and backup corner infielder? This would require cutting ties with David Ortiz and pursuing someone like, say, Aramis Ramirez, who is a Type B free agent and would not require the forfeiture of a draft pick.
As Globe reporter Peter Abraham has pointed out, the Sox have third base prospect Will Middlebrooks climbing the ladder in their system, which could also make Youkilis a trade candidate at some point. Still, Middlebrooks played only 16 games at Triple A this year (batting .161) and could use more time. A stopgap signing at third could make all the sense in the world depending on the length of the contract, and it might also help address the left-right imbalance that exists in the Boston lineup.
OUTFIELD
What we know for sure is that J.D. Drew is out, leaving an obvious hole in right filled most likely to be filled by Ryan Kalish. Thus far, Cherington has said only that Kalish is in the right field mix along with, among others, Josh Reddick, who also bats lefthanded. Whoever emerges from those two, the outfield composition is the same given the return of Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury: all three players hit lefthanded.
As such, the Red Sox are in the market for a righthanded-hitting outfielder -- other than Darnell McDonald – and preferably one who can handle right field at Fenway Park (while spotting in center during an emergency).
If Carlos Beltran is indeed among the Sox’ targets, as has been reported, he makes sense for a number of reasons. Though he will be 35 in April, Beltran is a former center fielder and three-time Gold Glove Award-winner who can handle the outfield. Though a switch hitter, his career numbers are slightly better from the right side. And while he is a Type-A free agent, he would not require compensation because, per his current contract, his existing team (the Giants) cannot offer him arbitration to qualify for compensation.
The problem? Though injury-prone, Beltran might not be ready to label himself as a part-time player just yet. In full-time duty last season with the Giants and New York Mets – he played 142 games - Beltran batted .300 with a .910 OPS.
In terms of offense, the right-anded-hitting Cody Ross (a career .912 OPS against lefties) would be a good fit, though there would be obvious defensive questions about his ability to handle right field at Fenway. The combination of offensive and defensive needs at the position makes it tricky to address, which is why the Red Sox will have relatively few good options here unless they make a change in left or center, which seems unlikely.
That said, the Sox would be prudent to explore Jacoby Ellsbury’s value on the trade market, if for no other reason than the fact that Ellsbury’s value is stratospherically high at the moment. Ellsbury is eligible for free agency at the end of the 2013 season and seems likely to depart given the history of agent Scott Boras, so it might be worth moving him now if the Sox can get something significant (read: an ace) back.
If not, Ellsbury obviously stays. As a big market team, the Sox have the luxury of playing for a championship every year. That alone means they can afford to let Ellsbury leave for nothing more than draft pick compensation in two years. But they at least owe it to themselves to sniff around, especially if they cannot get quality starting pitching through other means.
CATCHER AND DESIGNATED HITTER
Jarrod Saltalamacchia wilted down the stretch – he batted .182 in his final 35 games – but some of that is to be expected from a 26-year-old catcher essentially playing his first full season. Even then Saltalamacchia was still one of the most productive catchers in the American League. The starting job looks like it’s his, which means the questions at these positions (including DH) really come down to two people.
Jason Varitek and David Ortiz.
With Varitek, the Red Sox have some questions they need to answer. Do they really want him there as a binky for Josh Beckett anymore? Is he obstructing the development of Ryan Lavarnway? If the answers are what we think they are, it might be time to cut ties with Varitek and stash a different veteran backup at Triple A. Tough call there. But keeping Varitek and Beckett on the same roster doesn’t seem conducive anymore to team objectives.
As for Ortiz, he, too, may be affected by Lavarnway, who hit .294 with a .980 OPS against lefties in his limited time in the big leagues. Depending on what the Sox choose at other positions, they could carry Lavarnway as a catcher and DH against lefthanded pitching. Ortiz was a major force in the lineup this year and cutting ties with him might require the addition of another lefthanded bat – is that the way to get someone like Beltran full-time status? – but the Red Sox basically face same the issue with Ortiz as they do with Varitek.
Is it time to cut ties with the old era and fully delve into the new? After all, would players like Ortiz and Varitek hinder the freedoms a new manager might otherwise feel?
STARTING PITCHING
At the moment, the only starters the Red Sox can count on for the start of the season are Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Everyone else is dealing with either injuries or age. Beckett’s shenanigans at the end of the season has introduced the possibility of trading him, but the Sox can only do so if they can get pitching back in the same trade or any other.
Even then, if Beckett stays, the Red Sox need innings. And given the history of Beckett and Buchholz – they both look like 175-inning pitchers in a best-case scenario – the Red Sox may need to add two or three starters, even if they are serious about moving Daniel Bard into the rotation.
Again, let’s focus on Type-B free agents or non-compensation players. Barring trade, the Red Sox are likely to be in on people like Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez and Aaron Harang by assembling a collection of arms that are either low-risk (and high reward) or have a proven track record of durability. (This is the only reason to pursue Vazquez, who has a wretched history in the American League and has suggested he may retire.) Barring a trade, the Red Sox aren’t likely to be in the market for a big-name starter, particularly in the wake of the Lackey debacle.
Beckett really is the key guy here. Even if he has his head screwed on, he has pitched more than 175 innings in consecutive seasons only once in his career. Beckett will be 32 next spring and still has trade value, even if the Sox have to eat a portion of the annual $17 million salary he possesses through 2014.
Again, the Sox can only trade Beckett if they know they’re getting starting pitching back in some way, shape or form. But it’s something they might have to consider.
BULLPEN
Of all the tasks facing Cherington, this may be the biggest. As much as people have gushed about the tandem of Bard and Jonathan Papelbon at the end of games over the last three years, there is the possibility that neither will be in the bullpen in 2012. Bard could be in the starting rotation. Papelbon is a free agent.
Just the same, rarely have the two fired on all cylinders at the same time. Papelbon had a very good year this season, but Bard crumbled down the stretch. In 2010, the opposite was basically true. The Sox obviously have someone like Alfredo Aceves to help the cause, though they may also consider him a candidate for the starting rotation.
On the free agent market, there is no deeper collection than in the bullpen, specifically at closer. It may be the one area in which the Sox pursue Type-A (or compensation players), if only because the departure of Papelbon will net the Sox compensation in return. One note: the Sox typically like relievers who can retire both left- and right-handed batters, eschewing some of the specialists that might command relatively high salaries while handling reduced roles. The Sox have rarely spent anything on a lefty specialist, for example, and they aren’t likely to start now.
Nonetheless, the list of free agent relievers includes Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Michael Wuertz and others who have closing experience. (Don’t forget that Bobby Jenks is still under contract.) The list is so long that Cherington should be able to build an entirely new bullpen from scratch, which is a good thing.
After all, he just may have to.
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"Embarrassment of riches" is a bit of an overstatement, Mazz, and will be until we're actually outspending the Yankee$ on a regular basis.
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