The free agent season now commences in earnest, so let the games begin. Last year, on the first day of bidding, the Red Sox presented Mark Teixeira with a six-year, $120-million offer. Several weeks later, Teixeira signed an eight-year, $180 million deal with the New York Yankees to conclude a shopping spree like no other in baseball history.

As much as the 2009 baseball season was settled on the field last summer, one could just as easily argue that the World Series was decided in November and December.

For the Red Sox, the work this offseason obviously begins with Jason Bay, whose free agent status leaves a sizable hole in the Boston lineup and outfield. For all of the attention placed on reports yesterday that Bay had rejected a four-year, $60 million contract from the team, representatives for the Sox and Bay long ago decided that the player was going to test the market. According to a reliable baseball source, the truth is that the Sox offered Bay a four-year contract as far back as the All-Star break, and there was simply no way that Bay was going to sign with the Sox before opening himself up to bids from other teams.

Given that fact, here are some things you should keep in mind over the next several weeks.

Believe half of what you read and less of what you hear. Yesterday’s report about Bay is a good example. The fact that he ``rejected’’ a four-year proposal worth something close to $60 million is no news at all. Not really. Immediately after the Red Sox season ended, both Bay and Sox general manager Theo Epstein have been stating with some certainty that Bay was going to file and take bids. That hasn’t changed.

Bay and the Red Sox have had some discussion in recent weeks, but no free agent was able to discuss financial terms or take with any new team until midnight last night/this morning. Free agency moves according to a schedule. Much of what is written and said in the media at this time of year is either a dramatization or inaccurate -- and we’re not excluding any outlets -- particularly in a media age where fewer and fewer are held accountable for what they say or write.

The point? Teams lie and manipulate. So do agents. The pressure to get the scoop leads to shoddy and sometimes reckless reporting. Last year, one Red Sox official privately admitted that the team felt no need to correct misinformation because the murkier the picture, the better for the organization. Next month’s winter meetings might as well have Pinocchio as a mascot.

Be patient. As much as we would all like to know who will be playing left field and shortstop, the process can be quite deliberate, especially when agent Scott Boras is involved. Last year, according to one Sox official, part of the reason the club opened with a six-year, $120 million offer for Teixeira is because the Sox know Boras all too well. Nobody can string out a negotiation like Boras, who represents outfielder Matt Holliday, among others.

By the end of the Teixeira talks, the Sox were at eight years and $170 million.

Regardless of whether Holliday is on the Red Sox’ radar -- and rest assured that he is -- there are so many moving parts during every postseason that it takes for them to fall into place. Don’t be surprised, for example, if Holliday signs after Bay, despite the fact that many deem Holliday the better all-around player. And don’t be surprised if the Red Sox are willing to give Holliday a longer contract than they are willing to give Bay, if it ever comes to that.

Remember: The Sox’ primary objective last winter, as with this one, was offense. They ended up signing mostly pitchers on incentive-laden contracts. Free agency can take teams in lots of different directions.

Suspect collusion. Along with death and taxes, here is another certainty of life: agents will always accuse owners of collusion. You can pretty much set your clock by it. Once the agents start grumbling at a certain decibel level, it usually means we’ve reached early- to mid-December, when another crop of players is about to flood the market and drive down the market.

Generally speaking, the high-profile players always will get their money. But in recent years, owners have backed off considerably once the elite players have signed. Every December, a new crop of "non-tender’’ free agents hits the market in December. Usually, these are players headed for arbitration -- like Colorado corner infielder Garrett Atkins, for example -- whose salaries might far outweigh their performance.

In the case of someone like Atkins, he made a shade more than $7 million last year and batted .226. Thanks to arbitration, he will still be due a raise. (Nice country, eh?) Because Atkins is due for free agency at the end of the 2010 season, the Rockies would love to trade him. Teams interested in Atkins -- the Red Sox? -- would rather wait for Atkins to hit the market as a non-tender free agent in December. Thus begins the game of chicken.

Trade for Atkins and pay a bigger salary along with sacrificing prospects? Or wait to see if the Rockies non-tender him, effectively giving him his release? And what if, in the end, Colorado just keeps Atkins?

Ultimately, here’s the point: if you’re someone like current free agent Adrian Beltre, you’re probably not going to get big money. Even wealthy teams like the Red Sox would rather wait for Atkins than pay for Beltre. By doing so, the price comes down for both. Most every team is now taking the same philosophy, be it by design or consequence. Regardless, agents are getting irked -- and maybe rightfully so. Teams are either colluding or using the market against the players.

Prepare for the unexpected. At the risk of triggering bad memories, let’s look at the case of Julio Lugo. During the winter of 2006-07, the Sox signed Lugo to a disastrous four-year, $36 million contract. Quite literally, the Sox are still paying for that one. But ask Sox officials if they feel signing Lugo was a mistake and they will shake their heads no.

Stubbornness, you say? Hardly. The real mistake, the Red Sox will tell you, is that the team put itself in a position organizationally where it had few other options. Because the Sox didn’t have a major league-ready shortstop in their system, they had to sign Lugo. That was part of the reason the Sox went out this year and spent $8.25 million on Cuban youngster Jose Iglesias, who could be with the big club in 2011.

So what will the Sox do in 2010? Good question. The presence of Iglesias gives them many options. The Sox could try to re-sign Alex Gonzalez on a one-year deal. They could get more aggressive and pursue Marco Scutaro. In a worst-case, the Sox could even move former college shortstop Dustin Pedroia to shortstop for a season -- don’t entirely rule this out -- and try to find an offensive-minded second baseman that would improve the depth of the lineup.

Don’t forget the international market, especially as it pertains to pitching. In 2006-07, while the San Francisco Giants were spending $126 million on Barry Zito, the Red Sox invested more than $103 million in Daisuke Matsuzaka. At that time, most American fans had no real idea of who Matsuzaka was. The Sox, especially, are quite covert with regard to international operations, and we should all remember that talented young lefthander Aroldis Chapman is still on the market after defecting from Cuba.

On the whole, the Red Sox’ pitching staff is in pretty good shape. Still, the Sox could use some depth in the rotation and in their minor-league system. Chapman is a great fit for them. Beyond that, the Sox will likely dabble in low-risk, high-reward starters -- don’t take the cheese on John Lackey -- and bullpen depth. That will be especially true if they fail to secure Bay or Holliday for the middle of their lineup.

Whom should the Sox pursue this offseason? Review the possibilities and vote.

Now begins the intriguing case of Jason Bay, a man whose contract negotiations with the Red Sox are, in some ways, unprecedented. Players have continued to come and go during the current Red Sox administration. Yet now the Sox are faced, perhaps for the first time, with a potential fight for a player they truly want to keep.

One day after the 2009 World Series concluded, baseball’s offseason officially began yesterday with the first day of the free agency filing process. Bay was one of the players who immediately declared his freedom. Most everyone agrees that Bay and outfielder Matt Holliday (who also filed) are the best positional players available on the market this offseason, and both are obvious fits for a Sox club that has both a gaping hole in left field to go along with a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup.

The questions today are the same questions that have existed throughout Bay’s tenure in Boston, during which Bay has led the Red Sox in home runs and RBI while finishing second in runs scored and OPS.

How much is he worth on the open market?

Will the Red Sox be willing to pay it given the manner in which they have approached free agency during the last seven years?

During the tenure of general manager Theo Epstein, three free-agent pursuits stand out above all others: J.D. Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Mark Teixeira. Beyond that trio, the Red Sox generally have not offered any player more than a four-year deal in the range of $40-$50 million. The Sox have shown a willingness to spend big only when their preferred factors were in complete alignment, and in those cases they were at least willing to blow most everyone out of the water.

In the case of Teixeira, the Sox obviously lost out to the New York Yankees, but that’s not the point. The club still offered him the biggest contract in club history. At the time, Teixeira was a 28-year-old, switch-hitting, two-time Gold Glove winner who could hit for average and power. In terms of long-term investments, he was about as safe it gets. No one should be surprised that this Red Sox administration was willing to go to unprecedented lengths (for them) to secure his talents.

Matsuzaka, meanwhile, came with greater risk given that he had never played in the major leagues, but the other factors were otherwise in alignment. He was 26 when the Red Sox invested $103 million in him over six years. Technically speaking, Matsuzaka is on the Red Sox payroll for an average of $8.67 million per year from 2007-2012, but the $51.11 million posting fee was absolutely part of the cost for him. The reality is that the Matsuzaka deal cost the Red Sox an average of $17.17 million per year.

All of this brings us to Drew, who is easily the most comparable case to Bay given that both are corner outfielders. Following the 2006 season, Drew was precisely the same age (31) that Bay is now. The Red Sox gave him a five-year, $70 million contract that opened eyes through the baseball world and that Epstein still is defending. In late September, Epstein invited discussion on Drew on 98.5 The Sports Hub, pointing out that Drew had "the second-highest OPS" among all American League outfielders, a particularly relevant characterization given who finished the year ranking first.

That would be Bay.

Here’s the other reason the Red Sox valued Drew: defense, an area in which Bay is, on the whole, mediocre, and also one on which the Sox are likely to place undue emphasis (some media types are already taking the bait on this) for the purposes of driving down the price. But then, negotiations are all about leverage. Drew’s ability to play right field at Fenway Park – one of the bigger areas in baseball – prompted Epstein to suggest last winter that Drew had greater value to the Sox than he did to other teams, and whether one agrees with the GM is irrelevant. The important thing to remember is that the Red Sox have certain philosophies and formulas that they believe in, and they have shown a willingness to pay for it when their criteria are met.

With regard to Bay, part of the problem is that the Sox don’t appear to have any better options to replace him, be it through trade or free agency. They don’t have a hitter like him ready in their minor league system. Holliday would cost at least as much or more, and his brief stint in the AL (let alone Boston) left a great deal to be desired. A trade would require further forfeiture of young talent from a Sox system that has hit somewhat of a developmental hole, particularly after a flurry of necessary, in-season trades this year.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox seem backed into a corner here.

While representatives for Bay and the Sox have remained remarkable tight-lipped during negotiations that began last spring, it’s hard to imagine Bay settling for anything less than what the Sox awarded Drew, be it in years (again, five) or dollars ($70 million, an average of $14 million per). The likelihood is that Bay will command closer to $16-$18 million per year given his elite status on the market, which could place his final cost somewhere in the range of $80-$90 million over five years. (In case you’re wondering, that is purely an opinion.)

For what it’s worth, during his major league career as a starter (2004-09), Bay ranks in the top 10 of all major league outfielders in OPS, a statistic on which the Sox have placed great emphasis and in which Bay and Drew have been a virtual dead heat over the last six years. Bay beats Drew handily in games played (892-749), home runs (181-120), runs scored (564-497) and RBI (596-425), though the latter is a statistic, according to Epstein’s same radio interview, that the Sox generally discount entirely. Whether that disclosure is 100 percent fact or merely served as initial posturing for the Bay negotiations remains to be seen, largely because Bay’s representative (Joe Urbon) is not likely to deem his player’s run production irrelevant.

During Bay’s career as a starter, only five outfielders in the game have knocked in more runs: Carlos Lee, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero and Adam Dunn, the last of whom is a defensive sinkhole and whose recent free-agent contract (two years, $20 million) badly skews the data. All of the others, in the primes of their careers, earned average annual salaries between $15 million and $20 million.

Regardless, there is more pressure on the Sox to keep in Bay in Boston than there ever has been on them ever before, with possible of exception of Jason Varitek, who filed for free agency for the first time following the 2004 season. Even then, most everyone in baseball knew Varitek’s priority was to remain with the Sox – to the point where he all but spurned other suitors. In the other major free agency filings during the administration of John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino and Epstein, the Sox either have happily let aging players depart (Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon and Derek Lowe, among others), traded them before the fact (Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez) or reluctantly re-signed them (Mike Lowell).

But Bay? The Red Sox want him and they need him.

We just don’t know if they’re going to pay him.

"In that game, he topped out at 86 mph. We had some pretty good hitters in our lineup and he took the bats out of our hands. After watching that, in that situation, there was no doubt in my mind that Pedro could pitch without the velocity."
-- Mike Hargrove, former manager of the Cleveland Indians, commenting earlier today on Pedro Martinez’s performance in Game 5 of the 1999 American League Division Series between the Red Sox and Indians.

Pedro Martinez was at the peak of his greatness then, his legend growing with every single pitch. Ten years have passed since a wounded Martinez came out of the bullpen that night at Jacobs Field and shut down the mighty Cleveland Indians. Five days later, as if to prove that the game was not a fluke, Martinez similarly mystified the eventual world champion New York Yankees, relying largely on guile.

And so, yet again, we all are reminded that the past is merely prologue.

Pedro goes to the mound for Game 6 of the World Series tonight at Yankee Stadium, and here is the absolute, indisputable truth as the baseball world focuses in on him yet again: He really hasn’t changed at all. For all of the recent talk that Pedro, now 38 years old, has reinvented himself, that he has morphed from the power pitcher of his prime to the craftsman of his age, he was always the most adaptable and versatile of tacticians. Martinez always had the mind of Maddux to go along with the arm of Marichal, a combination that ultimately made him the Koufax of his era.

"If you look at some of the games he pitched against us [in the late '90s], he went entire innings throwing nothing but changeups and breaking balls. It was almost like he was rubbing our face in it,’’ said Hargrove. "The great ones can do that.’’

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, who served as Hargrove's hitting coach on those Indians teams, explained to reporters yesterday how Pedro still gets it done. "First of all, he's got a tremendous feel to pitch. He knows how to pitch. He knows more about hitters than probably people give him credit for because he'll sit there and study the game, and he'll study the hitters and he'll sit there and talk to you sometimes. That's one thing I like about Pedro: he'll come over and talk to you, and he don't listen when you tell him how to pitch somebody, he'll tell you how he's going to pitch somebody.’’

And then Martinez executes the plan as if it were all so simple.

While acknowledging that there is simply no way to know how Martinez will perform tonight, the fact is that it does not really matter. Truth be told, Pedro probably should have been done already. Martinez was too small to hold up, as Tommy Lasorda warned years ago, and the Red Sox were convinced it was only a matter of time before his shoulder exploded. Between the warnings and the inevitability, Martinez built a Hall of Fame career and won three Cy Young awards. Now he is simply reaffirming the fact that he is one of the smartest pitchers of all-time in addition to being one of the most gifted.

Martinez was the losing pitcher in Game 2 of the World Series last week, but that was through no fault of his own. Even now, he can captivate a crowd like an aged McCartney can. Martinez threw 107 pitches in his Game 2 loss to loss New York, leaving the game with a 2-1 deficit in the seventh inning of an eventual 3-1 Yankees win. According to the game log on mlb.com, only four of Martinez’s pitches climbed as high as 90 mph. Pedro altered speeds -- he threw one curveball to Melky Cabrera that registered 67 mph -- and changed locations, making the Yankees often look as if they were trying to swat away bumble bees.

Said Hargrove, "He’s the kind of guy who, when he’s pitching against you, you just want to go out there with a bat and start beating on him. He can make you look that bad."

Said Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira to reporters yesterday, "You’re not going to out-think Pedro. He’s one of the smartest pitchers in baseball.’’

Ever.

All of this brings us back to October 1999, when Martinez all but told us then to prepare for what we are seeing now. His manager (Jimy Williams) and his pitching coach (Joe Kerrigan) outright predicted that Pedro would be able to pitch well beyond his prime. After Pedro's performance against the Indians in Game 5, his brother and teammate Ramon, a former flamethrower who had been forced to change his style after an injury, revealed a bit of advice he shared with his sibling: "I told him, 'You don't have your fastball so you have to use your head.' When you feel 100 percent you can go right through the hitters. When you're not 100 percent, you have to pitch, not just throw. Tonight, he pitched."

Did he ever. Combined, in Game 5 of the AL Division Series that year and Game 3 of the AL Championship Series, Martinez barely cracked 90 mph (if at all) thanks to a strained shoulder suffered in Game 1 of the ALDS. He worked mostly in the mid-to-high 80s. In those two games, against two of the most prolific lineups in baseball, Martinez pitched 13 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, striking out 20 and walking five. His matchup against the Yankees and Roger Clemens was a first-round knockout. His blanking of the Indians triggered the firing of Hargrove and the subsequent hiring of Manuel.

Don’t you see? Manuel, too, recognized this all a long, long time ago, when Martinez changed his stripes without skipping a beat in the midst of one of the great pitching seasons of all-time. That is undoubtedly why he remains so confident in his righthander now. Martinez’s arm is not what it once was, but his mind has not diminished at all.

"He's got a tremendous feel for the game, and he's still got talent when he executes his pitches as a pitcher should,’’ Manuel said yesterday. "He's definitely capable of throwing a very good ballgame, a real good ballgame. I'd look for him to definitely put us in a place where we can win the game."

But then, regardless of whether Martinez had a fastball, we all knew that a long time ago.

I am rooting for the Yankees. Under the circumstances, you should, too.

As the World Series begins tonight in New York, let us all acknowledge that the Red Sox have started to grow a little stale. Many of us have grown complacent, if not downright spoiled. The large majority of us now treat the postseason as a birthright more than a blessing, a once unthinkable development for a franchise that made four trips to the postseason from the start of the 1919 season through the end of the 1987 campaign.

Last year, during a season immediately following a world title, local television ratings for Red Sox broadcasts on NESN dropped nearly 20 percent. This year, they dropped an additional seven percent. The Sox are producing fewer golden eggs than they have at perhaps any other point during the era of John Henry’s ownership, which cannot help but make you wonder if the Sox need a crisis the way a depressed nation might need a war.

Be honest with yourselves, folks.

The fire is not burning quite as hot as it once did.

Enter the Yankees, who went out last offseason and did precisely what the Red Sox need to do now. They reloaded. New York brought in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett while outmaneuvering the Red Sox for Mark Teixeira, adding three players who shared more than just talent. Combined, the new Yankees had never really won anything before. Even Burnett, who was injured during the 2003 Florida Marlins’ run to the world title, recently admitted that he was nothing more than another bystander when Florida upset the Yankees that season.

Translation: The Yankees are hungry. If it wasn’t enough that the Yankees have gone eight full seasons without winning a world title -- in New York, those add up like dog years -- the Yankees brought in even more players in search of fulfillment. The combination of talent and desire produced 103 regular season victories, and it now leaves New York just four wins from a record 27th world championship.

For the Red Sox and their following, nothing strikes a nerve quite like another parade down the Canyon of Heroes. Nothing. The irony is that another such celebration could be the best thing to happen the Sox at this moment in team history, with the Sox in the midst of a stretch during which they have made six playoff appearances in seven years. Things in Boston have reached the point where we all but write in the Sox for 95 wins every year, a terribly presumptuous and downright arrogant gesture. The Red Sox, as much as any team in professional sports, should know better.

The truth, of course, is that it takes more than talent to win. It takes some luck and some hunger or greed, too. (Greed is good.) Part of the reason the Sox lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Championship Series last season was because the Rays were healthier. Part of the reason was because the Rays were hungrier. The disturbing reality for Bostonians this year is that the Red Sox really ended up no better than the Rays did -- neither team won a postseason game -- and that the only difference entering 2010 is that the Sox have more money to spend.

As for the relatively new "Moneyball" theory that postseason success is arbitrary, be careful what you wish for. For starters, the Yankees qualified for the postseason every year from 2001 to 2007, but failed to win a single World Series. Was it arbitrary then? Were the Red Sox’ world title years of 2004 and 2007 a statistical fluke? Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein himself called such thinking "a crutch" after the Los Angeles Angels wiped out the Sox in the American League Division Series earlier this month, and even that assessment was conservative. In a market like Boston or New York, at this point in time, justifying postseason failure by pinning it on a roulette wheel is an absolute cop-out, a symbol of the ultimate loser’s mentality.

Nobody ever said sports were entirely fair and nobody ever said winning was easy. But more often than not, in baseball especially, you get what you deserve.

In this World Series, in particular, the Yankees will encounter a fitting opponent. The Philadelphia Phillies are the reigning world champions. While the Phils have a suspect relief corps, they have (at least on paper) the hitters to match up with the Yankees and the left-handed starting pitching to take on the New York lineup. The Phillies are more than capable of winning this series, and logic suggests that many New Englanders will be rooting against New York out of pure instinct and emotion once the games begin.

Here’s a tip: use your head. We all could use a dose of reality and humility here. The Yankees are loaded, they aren’t going away anytime soon, and maybe it’s time we all remember what the Red Sox are against every year. A restoration of the Yankees’ rule may be as grotesque and incomprehensible to you as the existence of Col. Nathan R. Jessup, but do not underestimate the impact of another world title in New York on the passion and competitive fire in this region.

You want them on that wall. You need them on that wall.

It gives you something to fight for.

The most promising aspect, going forward, is that the Red Sox have money to spend again. And even if the Red Sox elect to spend it all this winter, the even better news is that they project to have just as much financial flexibility during the winter of 2010.

In the end, the bottom line is this:

Over the next two winters, while the heralded prospects in the lower levels of the Boston farm system presumably continue their development, the Red Sox should have the financial flexibility to reconstruct a big league team that has aged in some key areas, deteriorated in others.

And given the shortage of talent available on the free agent market this offseason, the process might take the full two years.

UNDERSTANDING PAYROLL

Accounting can translate into very fuzzy math, of course, so let’s start with this: in the world of professional sports, there basically two kinds of payroll. The first concerns the actual outflow of cash that takes place during any season; the second results from the formula used for salary caps and or luxury tax, the latter of which is known in baseball as the collective bargaining tax (CBT). No matter how you slice it, the Red Sox generally project to be in the range of $140-$150 million annually as it pertains to their major league roster -- and that is basically where the Sox ended up in 2009.

Here’s an example: Before this season, the Sox signed Jon Lester to a guaranteed five-year, $30-million contract that averages out to exactly $6 million per season. The deal included no signing bonus and called for a base salary of $1 million in 2009. In terms of actual cash outflow, the Sox only paid Lester $1 million this year. But with regard to the CBT, his salary stands at the average of $6 million per year through 2013, even when the Sox are paying Lester an actual base salary of $11.625 million in the final year of the contract.

What you save now, you pay later.

Here’s the flip side: When the Red Sox acquired Jason Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates last year, he was in the middle of a four-year, $18.25 million that averaged roughly $4.55 million per season. For purposes of the CBT, that is the number the Sox were charged for Bay this year. Yet, the Sox actually paid Bay a base salary of $7.5 million this year because Bay’s original deal with the Pirates was backloaded. (This explains why the Pirates traded him when they did.)

Here is an estimated comparison of the Sox’ commitments to their players in 2009 and 2010, separated by actual payroll and the formula used to calculate CBT payroll:

(Key: FA --free agent; ARB -- eligible for arbitration; 0-3 -- player has fewer than three years of major league service and is under team control but ineligible for arbitration, so salary has yet to be determined. Salary figures are in terms of millions.)

(Notes: With regard to the CBT, Matsuzaka’s average of $8.67 does not include the $51.11 million postion fee the Sox paid for his rights late in 2006; also, though it is not reflected in the CBT calculation here, each club is required to contribute roughly $10.2 million to play benefits. That figure increases the Sox’ 2009 CBT to roughly $158.6 million.)

THE SHORTER TERM

Though the Red Sox have no major free agents other than Jason Bay, their financial flexibility this offseason is similar to that of a year ago, when the Sox offered a whopping eight-year, $170 million contract to Mark Teixeira, who eventually signed with the New York Yankees. In lieu of acquiring Teixeira, the Sox effectively spent their money on John Smoltz ($6.9 million after bonuses), Takashi Saito ($6 million after bonuses) and Brad Penny ($5 million). Those three players alone cost the Sox a combined $17.9 million, not much less than the $21.25 million annual average the club offered to Teixeira.

The bad news? Smoltz was an enormous bust, Penny was a moderate bust, Saito was grossly overpaid. The good news? The Red Sox aren’t on the hook for any of them anymore, something of which Bay’s agent (Joe Urbon) is surely to remind the club if and when negotiations between the player and team reach a critical stage.

At the moment, after all, Bay seems the best fit and solution -- at least on the free agent market -- for a Sox team that has some offensive questions after a collective .224 team batting average over the last two postseasons. Aside from Bay, the only other relatively young elite run producer on the open market is Matt Holliday, whose brief history in the American League is suspect. The Sox always could opt for a shorter-term solution like Bobby Abreu, but Bay and Holliday seem to be the most obvious place where the Sox could utilize the estimated $40 million (annually) they have to spend this winter.

If neither of those players ends up in Boston, general manager Theo Epstein may have little choice but to focus on a stopgap measure like Abreu, though he will have other options, too. Thanks to their financial picture beyond 2010, the Sox may have great flexibility in a trade.

THE LONGER TERM

Following the 2010 season, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett all will be eligible for free agency, shedding another $35-$37.5 million from the Red Sox payroll, depending on the precise calculation. Jason Varitek ($3 million in 2010) could be gone. Tim Wakefield ($4 million, assuming the Sox exercise his 2010 option) could be gone. This could allow Epstein great flexibility to make a blockbuster trade in much the same way that interim Sox executives Bill Lajoie and Craig Shipley executed the deal for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in November 2005.

That year, in order to acquire Beckett, the Sox took on Lowell’s contract. The Sox subsequently re-signed both players, though Lowell would have been set free following the 2007 season had his career remained in a funk.

So, depending on what the Sox do this winter, Epstein could have an absurd amount of money to spend next year at this time, giving the Sox the chance to go on a spending spree like the one the Yankees ventured on last winter. At the moment, the Sox have an estimated $50-$65 million committed in player salary for the 2011 season. Even when adding the team contribution to player benefits, the commitment stands in the range of roughly $60-$75 million, roughly less half of the team’s projected number in the last few years.

And remember: Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew, among others, all are under team control through that year.

For all of the concern about the Red Sox’ offense going forward, the pitching staff is in excellent shape. That fact should allow Epstein to focus his efforts on offense this winter, particularly with prospects like pitcher Casey Kelly already making waves in the Boston system. The biggest question Epstein may be faced with this offseason will result if he fails to sign either Bay or Holliday, leaving the Sox with a fistful of money and no marquee free agents to spend it on.

When that happened last year, Epstein signed a handful of pitchers to one-year contracts and rolled the dice that the Sox could pitch their way to a world title. And though that plan ultimately fell a few steps short, the Sox essentially are right back where they started.

With a roll of cash in their pockets, faced with the decision of spending it now or spending even more later.

With regard to Jonathan Papelbon, the ultimate question is this: after three years of absolute dominance, was the 2009 season at all a warning of things to come?

"Absolutely not,’’ Red Sox pitching John Farrell said yesterday. "He set a standard for himself. There’s a guy about four hours south of us that he might be in the same area with."

Five days have passed since the closer's improbable implosion ended the Red Sox season last Sunday, but this is not about the final appearance of Papelbon’s 2009 campaign so much as it is the entire body of work. For the first time in Papelbon’s career, there existed cracks. In the much bigger picture, those imperfections were nothing more than hairlines on what his been an extraordinary major league career to date, and yet enough questions surfaced about Papelbon -- particularly amid the emergence of heir apparent Daniel Bard -- that one cannot help but wonder if the Red Sox have at least begun contemplating a changing of the guard.

In Sunday’s outing against the Angels, Papelbon threw 32 pitches, four of which came during the intentional walk to Torii Hunter that led to Vladimir Guerrero’s game-winning single. Of Papelbon’s remaining 28 offerings, according to the game log on mlb.com, all 28 were fastballs. Further examination revealed that Papelbon actually threw one off-speed pitch, a split-fingered offering that was called a ball on his first delivery to Bobby Abreu, but the general point was unchanged.

In 2009, at the most pivotal time of the year, the horse who has served as the Red Sox closer became a one-trick pony.

Farrell, for his part, focused on execution rather than selection, which is to say that he places the root of Papelbon’s difficulties Sunday on where the righthander threw his pitches instead of what he chose to throw. Regardless, during a season in which he paced himself after feeling worn down late last season, Papelbon did not consistently pitch with the same velocity, which seemed to result in a convergence of elements that ultimately made him more vulnerable.

On the one hand, to avoid the late-season fatigue, Papelbon was wise to back off. On the other, in the absence of a reliable second pitch, his fastball became more hittable on those days when Papelbon was not operating with peak precision.

In the bigger picture, it is interesting to note the difference in Papelbon’s performance from 2007 to 2008. During the 2007 season, operating with a delivery that gave him more power but less command, Papelbon pitched 58.1 innings. He struck out batters at the rate of 13.0 per nine innings but he also issued walks at the rate of 2.3 per nine. In 2008, operating with a delivery that allowed him better command of his fastball, his workload increased to 69.1 innings. Papelbon’s strikeouts (10.0 per nine) and walks (1.0) both went down, his ERA creeping up from 1.85 to 2.34.

The simplest explanation is that Papelbon sacrificed some velocity for command with the hope that he would be more durable. Along the way, he became slightly more hittable, too.

This year, upon reporting to spring training, Papelbon and the Red Sox examined the pluses and minuses of '07 and '08, coming to the following conclusion: he would go back to his '07 delivery. The result was a first half of the season during which Papelbon’s walk rate more than quadrupled (to 4.15 per nine) from his pinpoint 2008 campaign, which led to longer outings and more vulnerability. The Red Sox responded by doing the logical thing. They shifted back to the delivery Papelbon used last year, a change that produced dramatic results over the final six weeks of this season.

In his final 14 outings of the regular season covering 15 innings, Papelbon struck out 18 and did not walk a single batter. He allowed just nine hits, only two of which (both doubles) went for extra bases. His ERA was 1.20. Opponents batted .170 against with a microscopic .404 OPS. Papelbon threw nearly 70 percent of his pitches for strikes, an increase of roughly five percent compared with his performance before the All-Star break.

"His walk totals dropped and his overall command improved,’’ said Farrell. Added the pitching coach, "We were deeper into the season [then] and in a better place from a physical standpoint."

The Red Sox, it seemed, had the best of both worlds for their previously impenetrable closer, who was peaking at the right time.

So what happened Sunday? Be it the result of adrenaline or just dumb luck, Papelbon’s delivery got out of whack. The fastball command he demonstrated during the final six weeks deserted him, leaving an aggressive and talented Angels lineup with far too many opportunities. On an 0-2 count to Erick Aybar, Papelbon was supposed to come up and in; he missed belt high and away. On a 1-2 offering to Abreu, Papelbon again was supposed to come in; Abreu hit a fastball away off the left field wall for a double.

In that inning, Papelbon allowed nearly half as many hits (four) as he did during the final six weeks of the regular season (nine); walked two more batters (two) than he had since Aug. 24 (none); issued as many intentional walks as he had in the last three regular seasons (one); and gave up three more earned runs (three) than he had in his entire postseason career to that point (zero).

Maybe that is why Farrell is not worried about the bigger picture with his closer, who could nonetheless benefit from refining a second pitch to go along with a fastball upon which he has become far too reliant. After all, when he sensed that opponents were starting to solve his devastating, trademark cutter, even Mariano Rivera began refining a two-seam fastball that turned in the opposite direction, solely to keep hitters honest.

Following Sunday’s defeat, Papelbon said he would use his Game 3 outing as "motivation" for next season. Given the fact that Papelbon is two seasons from free agency and without a long-term deal -- and given, too, the presence of Bard -- logic suggests the Red Sox would be wise to explore all options involving Papelbon, including trade. The great likelihood is that Papelbon will be back with the Sox in 2010, when the Sox currently project to be even more reliant on their pitching staff.

And the hope, of course, is that he is able to glean something valuable from the entire 2009 campaign, no matter how improbable the events of Sunday, Oct. 11.

In the much bigger picture, maybe it is worth remembering that the Red Sox have a relatively good outlook. They just won 95 games. They have qualified for the postseason six times in the last seven years. They have a baseball operations staff that is committed to long-term sustainability more than short-term success, and they will take one step backward to ensure two steps forward.

At the moment, the problem is that the 2010 season looks like it will be a step back.

Here’s the big question: Is it likely that the Red Sox can win the 2010 World Series?

The obvious answer is no. Despite a deep pitching staff that should be very much intact -- let’s not forget that -- the Red Sox at the moment have an aging lineup that will steal from the poor and give to the rich, which creates a problem come October. Like the Bruins of the '80s and '90s, the Red Sox suddenly seem good enough to make the playoffs, flawed enough to ultimately fall short.

Here are five suggestions on how the Sox can cure their ills:

1. Re-sign Jason Bay or replace him with Matt Holliday. Obvious, right? The free agent market is thin, and the reality is that the Sox need more offense even if they keep Bay or replace him with Holliday. If they get neither, the likelihood is that the 2010 lineup will be even worse than 2009. The Sox may be forced to rely on stop-gap measures like Bobby Abreu, who will be a free agent again after a very productive year for the Los Angeles Angels.

Holliday (.394) and Bay (.384) had virtually identical on-base percentages in 2009, but they got there in very different ways. Holliday hit almost 50 points higher. The Red Sox of 2010 batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago. Unless the Sox are expecting opponents to repeatedly issue walks with the bases loaded, they need to re-sign Bay or replace him with someone who hits for a high average.

2. Beyond Bay or Holliday, add another big bat. We know what you’re thinking -- why not Bay and Holliday? The reason is that there really isn’t enough room for them in the outfield, though one of them certainly could serve as the designated hitter given the decline of David Ortiz. Still, the reality is that the Red Sox will have a hard enough time signing one of those guys, let alone both. There is also the matter of getting a little too righthanded in the lineup.

At the trading deadline this year, the Sox seriously explored the possibility of acquiring slugging Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, a career .281 hitter. A lefthanded batter, Gonzalez hits to all fields (with power) and would almost certainly gain a bump in batting average by playing at Fenway Park. If the Sox can pry Gonzalez away from San Diego by trading some pitching (Clay Buchholz) and some of their lower-level prospects, they should do it. That could give them a middle of the lineup that includes Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Gonzalez, Bay, J.D. Drew, and even Mike Lowell.

3. Upgrade at shortstop. As we've learned through the years, this is easier said than done. These days, finding a shortstop who can produce offensively is almost as hard as finding a catcher who can do the same. But given the nature of the Red Sox lineup now, the club really can no longer afford to carry a shortstop who provides them with below-average offense. The best way for them to thicken out their lineup is to find a shortstop who can get them in the top five in OPS at the position.

As terrific as Alex Gonzalez was for the Sox this year, he is almost exclusively a defensive player. While re-signing him is not entirely out of the realm of possibility, the Sox need to explore every possible avenue for a shortstop who can give them something offensively, even if they sacrifice some defense. Maybe that means bidding on a free agent like Toronto's Marco Scutaro. Maybe it means inquiring about Milwaukee's J.J. Hardy.

With regard to Hanley Ramirez, we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the chances of acquiring him are virtually non-existent. Still, there was some indication this year that the Marlins grew at least a little tired of Ramirez’s immature behavior, which means the topic (as always) is at least worth revisiting.

4. Explore the idea of trading Jonathan Papelbon. This has nothing to do with Game 3 of the AL Division Series. Papelbon is still one of the elite closers in the game and has played a huge role in the team’s success since becoming a closer. At the same time, assuming the Sox have little interest in re-signing Papelbon once he is a free agent following the 2011 season, he is, perhaps, one of their more valuable and expendable bargaining chips.

In 2009, the obvious strength of the Boston team was pitching, particularly in the bullpen. Daniel Bard looks like a closer in the making and Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, among others, are under team control. The Sox even hold an option on Takashi Saito for roughly $6 million, which the club almost certainly will decline -- unless there is a reason to keep him.

This year’s free agent class includes, among others, Octavio Dotel, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde, among others. All have at least some experience closing. If the Sox could sign another setup man/closer for relatively short dollars and get something of value for Papelbon -- even prospects that could replenish the Boston system or be flipped in a deal -- it might make sense for them to do so.

5. Sign another starting pitcher, assuming the price is right. At the moment, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield (option) are all under team control. The problem is that the Red Sox don’t have a lot of depth behind them with regard to 2010, at least based on what we saw this year. Michael Bowden can’t be counted on yet. Everyone else is at least a year away. The Sox need some starting pitching depth and this might be a good market to find it.

Remember: Unless the Red Sox re-sign him, Beckett will be a free agent following the 2010 campaign. Wakefield will be a year older. The pitching market of 2010 could be deep -- Brandon Webb, Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson and others, including Beckett, could be available -- and the Red Sox will have money to spend then. In the interim, the Sox might be able to strike gold with someone like Justin Duchscherer or Erik Bedard, depending on the value of the contract. Given some of the issues with those pitchers, the Sox might be able to lock one of them on a one-year deal.

If this sounds a lot like last year’s plan, it is. Certainly, the Sox would be wise to explore a deal for someone like Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, but their prospects would be put to better use for offense given the shortage of hitters in the Boston organization. A stopgap at the end of the rotation would serve the Sox well for 2010 and leave them with ample money to spend following next season, when the contracts of Beckett, Ortiz and Mike Lowell will all expire.

That winter, any remaining problems should be easier to fix.

In the Red Sox clubhouse, after the most devastating home loss since October 1978, there were questions. Questions for Jonathan Papelbon. Questions for Jason Bay. Questions for a Red Sox organization that now seems to be heading backward.

And so, in the aftermath of a 7-6 Sox defeat to the Los Angeles Angels that ended the 2009 baseball season in Boston, we wonder: are the Sox closer to being like their championship clubs of 2004 and 2007, or are they closer to being like the Oakland A’s of this early millennium - a team that seemingly could win in every month but October? Was this merely a momentary setback or a sign of a more long-lasting deterioration? And regardless of the answers to those questions, can the Sox quickly repair what ails them, particularly with regard to an offense that has been exposed in each of the last two autumns?

"I don’t think anything that happened in this series completely came out of the blue,’’ a candid Sox general manager Theo Epstein said after his team was unceremoniously swept out of the first round. Added the Sox GM, "We got outplayed in this series. They deserved it. They outplayed us fair and square and they deserve to move on.’’

Indeed they do. As for the Red Sox, the teams of the last two Octobers have differed greatly from those of 2003-2007, when the Sox won a pair of world titles. When it comes right down to it, the Sox simply do not tax opposing pitching staffs the way they used to, at least at that time of year when the competition intensifies and the games grow in magnitude.

From 2003 to 2007, when the Red Sox made four playoff appearances in five years, they batted a collective .279 in the postseason with a team OPS of .822 and averaged 5.7 runs per game. During that time, whether making one postseason appearance or five, no other team in baseball produced more runs per game or hit for a higher average. When it came time to face the Red Sox in the postseason, opponents were downright afraid of pitching to the Red Sox.

Over the last two seasons, that has changed entirely. In this series, especially, the Angels attacked most everyone in the Boston lineup. In 2008-09, the Red Sox have batted a woeful .224 with a .681 OPS and averaged 3.8 runs per contest. During that span, they have gone 6-8 and lost two of the three series in which they have played. The only series win during that stretch was last year’s American League Division Series against the Angels, a four-game set during which the scores entering the ninth inning were 2-1 (Sox), 5-5, 4-4 and 2-2.

Given all of those realities, the easy thing now is to attribute all of this to the departure of Manny Ramirez or the failure to sign Mark Teixeira – or both. The truth is far more complicated. Obviously, David Ortiz (1 for 12, no walks in this year’s ALDS) is not the same hitter anymore. Mike Lowell (2 for 10) will be 36 in February. And for as much as Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Jason Bay have given the Red Sox lineup in the last 15 months, the Red Sox are not nearly as deep or as thick as they used to be.

In the last two seasons, the Red Sox have finished a respective second (in 2008) and third (in 2009) in runs scored, yet been completely shut down in October. All of that suggests, at least offensively, that the Sox are paper tigers who pad their resumes by beating up on bad pitching and then get sand kicked in their face when the playoff start.

Admittedly, thanks to the run the Sox enjoyed from 2003-07, our expectations here are absurdly high. When the Sox had Ortiz and Ramirez in the middle of their lineup, even in a tainted era, their offense was built around a truly historic tandem. As such, maybe we have unreasonable standards. But when the Sox started playing musical chairs with their lineups late in the year – five players for four spots, including Jason Varitek at the time – it was probably an indication that they didn’t have enough cornerstone players anymore.

As a result, manager Terry Francona had perhaps his most trying year in Boston, left with the unenviable challenge of trying to satisfy an assortment of aging veterans who probably aren’t everyday players anymore. That can create an absurd amount of tension and stress. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were adding players to their bullpen and their lineup – all necessary moves, mind you – because the Sox came to the same midseason conclusion we all did: specifically, that they were not good enough.

So where do they go from here? Excellent question. At the moment, the 2010 season looks to be more like 2006 (when the Sox missed the playoffs) than 2007 (when they won their most recent world title). After all, the last time the Sox were swept from the postseason, they missed the playoffs the very next year. Even if Epstein is able to re-sign Bay – and that is a big if at the moment – the Sox appear to need another centerpiece bat, which could be tough to acquire given the shortage of talent available on the free agent market and absence of a stud bat in the Boston organization. (Where have you gone, Lars Anderson?)

"I’ve said all along that if something makes sense, I’d be stupid not to look at it,’’ Bay said yesterday when asked if the Sox had any chance of re-signing him before he officially files for free agency in November. "But since we got this far, it would have to pretty good [for him to sign] – put it that way.’’

Translation: Bay is headed to free agency because, at this point, he owes it to himself to take offers. And once that happens, all bets are off.

Said Bay, "I need to make something clear: everyone says it, but it’s not all about the money. It’s about the situation and about being comfortable. Obviously, at some point, it becomes about the money, but there are other factors.’’

For what it’s worth, Bay regards his experience in Boston as "a huge, huge positive,’’ but we all know that free agency is a tricky business. As quickly as Bay got comfortable here, he could get comfortable somewhere else. If and when that happens, the Red Sox will need to have a Plan B in place. The Sox generally have taken a conservative approach with regard to signing their free agents in recent years, but this one could come back to haunt them if a suitable replacement is not found.

All of this brings us back to the A’s of 2000 to 2006, who made the postseason five times and won one playoff series, prompting the increasingly popular belief that success in the postseason is, well, arbitrary. To his credit, Epstein yesterday cited that explanation as "a crutch,’’ which is the right answer for a big-market team like the Sox that can outspend most anyone else in the game. Like those A’s, who built their success around Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, the Sox have Josh Beckett and Jon Lester under contract through at least next season. But the lineup now looks rather ordinary – at least against good teams – which cannot help but make you wonder if the Red Sox are starting to turn into the Bruins of the 1980s.

Good enough to make the playoffs, flawed enough to fall short of a championship.

Again, it is important to remember here that we have all grown spoiled. This year, there were 22 major league teams who failed to make the playoffs; the Red Sox now have played in October during six of the last seven years. The downside of great success is that anything less seems like a disappointment, particularly when failure comes in the way it did for the Sox yesterday. When they blew leads of 5-2 (in the eighth) and 6-4 (in the ninth). Still, before anyone focuses too much on a previously impenetrable closer who was introduced to his mortality this year – is Jonathan Papelbon something else to worry about? – let’s remember that the Sox played three games in this series and lost them all.

Their problems, it seems, run far, far deeper than just yesterday’s top of the ninth.

As it turns out, the Red Sox need Josh Beckett to be their ace after all. And yet, four years into Beckett’s career with the Red Sox, he is as great an unknown as he has ever been.

So what are we going to get tonight, Sox fans? The Beckett of May, June and July, who went 11-2 with a 1.93 ERA over 16 starts, or the Beckett of late August and early September, who allowed a whopping 14 home runs in five starts? Will we get the Beckett of April, who had a 9.14 ERA in his final our outings of that month? Or will we get the Beckett or October, who, when healthy, has proven to be among the most dominating pitchers in the history of postseason play?

Please place your bets.

Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows.

"Well, there's no issues physically at all," Beckett said during his press conference yesterday at Anaheim Stadium before the Los Angeles Angels wiped out Jon Lester and the Red Sox, 5-0, in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. "Obviously, last year was a little bit different. So as far as physically coming in, it's a lot better. Last month, it's been better than it was two months ago, so I'm just looking forward to going out there and doing what I'm supposed to do."

The Red Sox now find themselves is a situation similar to that of the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday morning. The Cardinals fired the first of their two big guns, Chris Carpenter, and lost Wednesday. They were preparing to fire the second, Adam Wainwright. The challenge for the Sox now is to avoid ending up where the Cardinals are today, one game from elimination and with their season resting on the shoulders of their No. 3 starter.

In between stands Beckett, who has won more regular season games during his time in Boston (65) than any pitcher in baseball but Roy Halladay (69), CC Sabathia (67), and Justin Verlander (65). Along the way, he all but carried the Sox to a World Series title, too. Beckett’s performance in October 2007 was one of the great postseason pitching efforts of all-time -- he went a perfect 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in four starts -- and only added to the pitcher’s mystique.

To that point in his career, Beckett was 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in 10 postseason appearances. Of all major league pitchers with least 70 postseason innings, only Mariano Rivera (0.76) and Christy Mathewson (1.06) had a better ERA. Statistically speaking, Beckett was better than Curt Schilling or Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson or Whitey Ford. And along with the two career World Series rings to prove it, Beckett had Most Valuable Player Awards in the 2003 World Series and the 2007 AL Championship Series.

Until last year, any team with Beckett on its roster had never lost a postseason series.

"He works really hard every day of the week, so when his day comes, he can go out and be ready to rise to the occasion. He doesn't have to try to push a button. He's prepared for what he's supposed to do,’’ Sox manager Terry Francona said when asked of Beckett’s ability to succeed in big games. "Because of his talent, he put that together in a lot of big situations. He's come up big."

Last year? With regard to Beckett, most of us toss it out. Just before the end of the regular season, Beckett strained an oblique muscle that hindered him throughout the playoffs. He had trouble cracking 90 miles per hour and was a shell of himself. Beckett still ended up pitching the Red Sox to a win in Game 6 of the ALCS before Matt Garza and the Tampa Bay Rays shut down the Sox and Lester in Game 7, but were all left to wonder whether the Sox might have been able to repeat had they boasted a healthy Beckett in the most important games of the year.

This year? Lester and Beckett are both healthy, as far as we know.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox interestingly decided to alter things. Lester’s strong finish coupled with Beckett’s late-season struggles prompted club officials to give Lester the ball for Game 1, though the Sox have made it clear that there were other factors involved in moving one of the best big-game pitchers of all time to Game 2.

"This way Lester gets an extra day, Beckett gets an extra day -- not one guy on regular rest and one guy on eight," said Francona, speaking for a Sox organization that generally has made decisions for the greater good. "It has as much to do with possibly being able to bring Beckett back for Game 5, too. We might be able to use these guys for four games. So that's part of it also."

Tonight, with the Red Sox facing a 1-0 series deficit and the Boston offense having failed to advance a runner to third base last night, they turn to Beckett for Game 2. A Boston win tonight evens the series at 1 and helps ensure that Lester will get another start, in Game 4, albeit on three days' rest. Clearly, that is the way the Red Sox are leaning. The Sox have Clay Buchholz lined up for Game 3 and have not named a Game 4 starter, as strong a statement as any on how they feel about Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In recent years, the Sox have dismissed any notion of bringing back any starter on three days' rest.

Four years ago, when the Sox acquired Beckett and Mike Lowell from the Florida Marlins, the idea was to replace the deteriorating Curt Schilling as the ace atop the Boston staff. As it turned out, with regard to October, the Sox replaced one big-game pitcher with another.

With the emergence of Lester, Beckett is here to win the big games more than he is to do anything else, particularly at a time when the Red Sox risk losing control over a series.

Tonight, with the Red Sox suddenly needing him as much as ever, Beckett gets his chance.

The Tigers are out. The Twins are in. And now, finally, the American League playoffs are set to begin.

While Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels will go through final preparations today on the West Coast, the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2009 AL postseason tonight in New York. The Yankees seem the obvious favorite to go to the World Series. New York won 103 games during the regular season and went a preposterous 65-27 in its final 92 games, suggesting that the Yankees are absolutely, positively, indisputably the team to beat.

Or are they?

As was the case just before the start of the season, when we ranked the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays in four key areas, so it is now with the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Twins entering the playoffs. But in this case, unlike an AL East race that produced two playoffs team, only one club can advance to the World Series.

The breakdown:

OFFENSE
During the regular season, the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, and Twins finished -- in that order -- first, second, third, and fourth in the league in runs scored. Interesting, eh? And for as much concern as there was for the Red Sox offense in the middle of the season, the Sox actually ranked first in runs after Aug. 15.

Still, nobody should be under any illusion here. Top to bottom, the Yankees have the best lineup in the postseason. The Red Sox and Angels are quite comparable -- the Angels possessing a little more speed, the Red Sox possessing a little more power. The Twins have arguably the best hitter in the league in catcher Joe Mauer, but the absence of injured first baseman Justin Morneau leaves a sizable hole in the middle of the batting order.

Here’s another interesting tidbit: Though the Yankees are stacked with lefthanded hitters, the Red Sox actually were the highest-scoring team at home in the AL this year. New York ranked second. Still, the Yankees have home-field advantage throughout the postseason, meaning that postseason opponents would be well-served to throw left-handed pitching at the new Yankee Stadium. In Game 1, the Twins will throw young lefty Brian Duensing, who has not allowed a homer to a lefty this year, albeit in a mere 82 at-bats.

Rankings: Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Twins.

DEFENSE
Here’s one thing you can almost always take to the bank, with or without a salary cap, no matter what direction the game goes in: the Twins will be fundamentally sound. This season, Minnesota tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the fewest errors in the league. Of course, the Red Sox (third fewest), Angels (fourth) and Yankees (fifth), rounded out the top five.

For what it’s worth, the Angels, Yankees, and Red Sox all have apparent strengths and weaknesses. The Angels are strongest on the left side of the infield, weaker on the right, weak at the outfield corners; they are also far better with Jeff Mathis behind the plate. The Red Sox allowed more base stealers than any team in baseball, but ranked first in the majors in fielding percentage after Aug. 15. (Thank you, Alex Gonzalez.) The Yankees are also weak at the outfield corners and can be vulnerable with Jorge Posada behind the plate, but their defense on the right side of the infield had improved tremendously with Mark Teixeira at first base.

As for the Twins, the absence of Morneau hurts them some here, too, but they have good range and speed all around -- and Mauer is the most complete catcher in baseball.

Rankings: Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees.

STARTING PITCHING
Here are the regular season rankings: Angels (4.44 ERA, fourth), Yankees (4.48, fifth), Red Sox 4.63, eighth) and Twins (4.84, 12th). Now you can throw them out the window because they mean less than any other of the areas in which these clubs currently are being rated.

For example: Since Sept. 1, Angels starters have a 2.83 ERA that generally coincides with the resurgence of John Lackey and the addition of Scott Kazmir. In the first round, at least, the Yankees will be operating without Joba Chamberlain, who had a 7.80 ERA in his final 11 starts. Take away John Smoltz, Brady Penny and the early-season Daisuke Matsuzaka -- none of whom will be pitching in the playoffs -- and the ERA of Red Sox starters this season drops to 4.10.

Ultimately, only the Twins have real questions here because Minnesota does not have the front-end pitching to match up with any of the other three teams in the postseason. Against the Yankees lineup, in particular, the Twins will have their hands full in the first round.

Rankings: Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Twins.

RELIEF PITCHING
In the playoffs, especially, the bullpens make all the difference in the world. The more power arms the better. On paper, nobody seems to match up with the Red Sox in this area, but don’t take anything for granted. The margin may not be as great as many would like to believe.

During the regular season, the Red Sox, Twins, Yankees and Angels ranked a respective second, fourth, fifth and 11th in the league in relief ERA. New York relievers (and not those of the Red Sox) ranked first in strikeouts per nine innings. The Red Sox added Billy Wagner in the second half and look positively dominating on paper, but Wagner has a suspect postseason history and right-handed phenom Daniel Bard has allowed 13 runs (a 6.50 ERA), 12 walks and five home runs in 18 innings covering his last 22 outings.

At the very least, the Red Sox are better than the Angels, who have easily the worst closer (Brian Fuentes) in an elite postseason group that includes Mariano Rivera (Yankees), Joe Nathan (Twins) and Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox). The Twins have an unheralded set-up crew that includes lefthander Jose Mijares, and righthander Matt Guerrier. The emergence of Phil Hughes has given the Yankees and elite set-up man.

The bottom line? The Red Sox, Twins and Yankees can close out games, meaning that the team with the lead through six innings will have an advantage.

Rankings: Red Sox, Twins, Yankees, Angels (but the first three are close).

PREDICTION
The first-round pairings are obvious: Yankees vs. Twins, Red Sox vs. Angels. As inspiring a story as the Twins have been of late, they went 0-7 against New York this year and look badly overmatched. New York seemingly has too much power and balance for Minnesota, particularly in the first six innings of the game, when the Yankees should be able to do damage.

The Yankees should win that series in no more than four games. That will earn them the right to face … whom?

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the Red Sox’ playoff history against the Angels this decade. Last year, entering the ninth inning, the scores of the four games between the clubs were 2-1, 5-5, 4-4 and 2-2. The Red Sox won Games 1, 2 and 4 to advance. The Angels obviously play in an inferior division, but these are two very evenly-matched teams, save for the bullpens.

If the Red Sox forfeit that advantage through poor pitching from their relief corps, the Angels will win this series. Overall, the Red Sox are the slightly better club, which why we’re picking them in five games.

Should that script play out, we all know what that means: a Boston-New York matchup in the AL Championship Series for the third time in seven years, first since 2004.

And as for a prediction on that one, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

And so just a day or two after manager Terry Francona spoke of the Red Sox getting their "house in order," the fall cleanup officially begins. There will be guests coming in October. How long they stay depends entirely on the Red Sox, who will now spend the next five days tidying up.

Specifically as it pertains to their pitching.

Winners of the American League wild card berth by virtue of the Los Angeles Angels’ victory over the Texas Rangers last night in Anaheim, the Red Sox scattered last night following an 8-7 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Some players stayed and some players went. A few hours later, when the Angels had completed a 5-2 win over the Rangers, the Red Sox had qualified for their sixth playoff appearance in seven years, no small feat even for a team with a sizable payroll and a productive farm system.

Give the Red Sox their due. In baseball, especially, there is really no such thing as backing in. The Red Sox this year had to work for the right to play in October, something that should never, ever be considered a birthright.

Lest anyone think the next five games now have been rendered meaningless, think again. The Red Sox still have plenty of work to do this week. The fact that the Sox now have lost 7 of 9 is not nearly so alarming as the manner in which it has happened, which is to say that the Red Sox' starting rotation has not had a great week. Jon Lester was getting knocked around by the Yankees on Friday before he took a line drive off the right leg. Josh Beckett was scratched on Tuesday with back spasms. Then Clay Buchholz went out and surrendered five home runs last night, digging the Red Sox an early deficit for the second consecutive night.

"That’s a tough way to play when you’re down that much,’’ Francona said after the loss. "It’s happened a couple of nights in a row.’’

Fine, so Monday’s loss came behind Michael Bowden, who won’t be pitching in October. But Bowden was pitching only because Beckett was scratched. That happened only a few days after Lester hobbled off the mound at Yankee Stadium. Just like that, the Nos. 1, 2, and 3 starters in the Boston rotation have encountered some unexpected glitches on what amounts to the eve of the postseason.

With regard to Lester, he will take the mound tomorrow night lined up to pitch Game 1 next week. Beckett is slated to go Saturday and Buchholz is scheduled to go Sunday. The important thing now is for the Red Sox to get their pitchers back on the mound, beyond any physical issues or concerns, and feeling good about themselves. Poor outings over the balance of this week won’t do anything to help their cause. The Red Sox don’t need to win games between now and late Sunday so much as they need to pitch well, just to ensure that they are firing on all cylinders when take the field against the Angels next week.

Last night, for whatever reason, Buchholz looked nothing like the starter who went 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA over his previous six starts. Rather, he looked far more like the pitcher who allowed seven runs to the White Sox on Aug. 24. Francona and Buchholz both made reference to the Jays "sitting soft’’ during Buchholz’s outing last night, meaning that Buchholz either is getting quite predictable -- he loves that changeup -- or that he was poorly executing what is his best pitch.

Given that Buchholz’s changeup, especially, was consistently up in the strike zone, maybe it was a little of both.

"If you sit on it and you get it on the thigh, it’s a tough pitch to miss," Buchholz admitted. "I got to the kill counts and I didn’t throw the pitches where they needed to be.’’

As a whole, of course, the Red Sox have been in kill counts for more than a week. After sweeping the Orioles in Baltimore on Sept. 20, the Red Sox were 30 games over .500 and on the verge of closing out yet another postseason appearance. During the nine days since, they have won just twice and experienced some unforeseen instability -- even if only a little -- while seemingly going into cruise control. The games this week will have positively no bearing on the ones next week – again, it’s not about the results – but the Red Sox now have five days to do some fine-tuning before making a run at their third World Series title in the last six years.

Because of the front-end pitching on this team, we all know the Red Sox have as good an opportunity as anyone this October. Once the Rangers succumbed last night, Dustin Pedroia succinctly told reporters, "I like our chances.’’ All the Sox need to do is use the next five days to get their legs back under them, eliminate any residual doubt, polish off the edges.

Come next week, after all, there will be decidedly little margin for error.

In the perfect world, what we have this weekend is a foreshadowing. Five years have passed since the Red Sox and Yankees met in the historic 2004 American League Championship Series. Many of the names have since changed, but the story remains the same.

Boston meets New York.

May the best city win.

And so, after a season’s worth of games and maneuvers, the Red Sox and Yankees today are precisely where many expected them to be: atop the American League. Boston and New York will begin their final regular season series of the year tonight with the two best records in the AL, seemingly on a collision course for October. The Yankees already are in the playoffs. Certainly, the Red Sox will be soon. And if all goes according to script, the Red Sox and Yankees will resume acquaintances again in the middle of next month for the right to go to the World Series.

Of course, the Los Angeles Angels may have something to say about that. So may the Detroit Tigers or, perhaps, the Minnesota Twins. But after a season of extremes in which the Sox and Yankees have taken turns beating up on one another, Boston and New York look relatively even entering the only time of the baseball calendar year that truly matters in either city.

In retrospect, this year has broken down into three pieces:

PHASE I
(Opening Day through June 24)

Back then, the Red Sox looked like the obvious class of the American League, if not all of baseball. They had a season-high, five-game lead in the American League East. They were 44-27 -- New York was 39-32 -- with a deep pitching staff and productive offense. While the Red Sox and Yankees had scored a virtually identical number of runs -- New York 386, Boston 382 -- the Red Sox had a decisive edge in ERA, 4.12 to 4.62 while the remodeled Yankees struggled to find their stride.

The Sox were a perfect 8-0 against the Yankees to that point. Many of us openly wondered whether New York’s acquisitions of CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett would ultimately mean anything at all.

PHASE II
(June 25 through Aug. 23)

As if experiencing a breakthrough, the Yankees caught fire. While the Red Sox settled into a problem-plagued, 52-game stretch during which the Sox went a perfectly mediocre 26-26, the Yankees caught fire. New York went 39-14 over a 53-game span to make up a whopping 12.5 games in the standings and assume control of the division. They have not relinquished it since. During this span, New York outscored the Red Sox by 43 runs and the pitching completely flip-flopped -- New York posted a 4.02 ERA, Boston 4.51 -- while the Yankees went 6-1 in head-to-head meetings between the teams.

With his club losing ground at an astonishing rate, general manager Theo Epstein went about the business of fortifying his roster. While relying on internal pitching depth to augment the starting rotation, the Red Sox improved their lineup, defense and bullpen by acquiring, in order, Victor Martinez, Alex Gonzalez and Bill Wagner.

PHASE III
(Aug. 24 to present)

A funny thing has happened in the last month or so: the Yankees haven’t slipped so much as the Red Sox have caught up. During this span, the while scoring a virtually identical number of runs -- Red Sox 172, Yankees 171 -- the Red Sox have gone a major league-best 21-8 while New York has gone 19-10. The Boston pitching has stabilized. While the Yankees experienced some instability in their starting rotation, the emergence of Clay Buchholz fortified a Boston staff that has a 3.98 ERA in the last month. (The Yankees’ ERA is 4.23.)

As a result, there is the very real possibility this weekend that New York will clinch the AL East while the Red Sox similarly wrap up a playoff berth, a fitting bit of symmetry given the way this season has evolved.

Since the last time the Red Sox and Yankees have met in the postseason, a great deal has changed. Boston and New York have substantially modified their rosters, the likes of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Sabathia and Burnett being thrust into a rivalry that may be unparalleled in all of sports. The identities of both franchises have been altered -- on the field and off -- and new tension exists. Kevin Youkilis has Joba Chamberlain to despise. Joe Torre is gone. Johnny Damon wears pinstripes. Alex Rodriguez has handed off his role as the rivalry’s central to figure to Teixeira, the latest Yankees who might have been a Red Sox. Meanwhile, there are still enough holdovers from the old days -- Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek -- to remind us that New York and New England are forever connected by more than just Interstate 95.

This weekend, in the big picture, the games between the Red Sox and Yankees really won’t mean much.

But as the teams bid farewell to one another Sunday, we can all hope that they will soon meet again.

With 11 games to go, the magic number is six. Despite what has happened the last two nights in Kansas City, the Red Sox should soon secure another playoff berth, their sixth in seven seasons during the reign of Theo Epstein.

No matter what the Red Sox say publicly, rest assured that the wheels are in motion for Boston’s return to the postseason.

Tonight, remember, Josh Beckett will return to the mound for his team-leading 31st start of the season. Counting this outing, Beckett could have as few as two starts remaining in the regular season. At the moment, the more significant point is that Jon Lester absolutely, positively has just two starts remaining, which raises the first of today’s five questions as the Sox close in on a playoff spot:

1. Is Lester the favorite to start Game 1?

Match them up. In Lester’s last nine starts, entering Friday’s game against New York at Yankee Stadium, he is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. The Red Sox have won each of his last seven outings. For all of the talk about Beckett’s candidacy for the American League Cy Young Award earlier in the year, Lester now has emerged as Boston’s best candidate for the award, which will likely go to either Zack Greinke or Felix Hernandez.

Based on how the Sox have set up their pitching rotation, Lester would pitch Friday at New York and either next Wednesday or Thursday. (Expect the latter as the Sox are likely to back everyone up once they clinch.) The playoffs will open on either Wednesday, Oct. 7 or Thursday, Oct. 8, depending on which series setup the Yankees elect to play (more on that in a second). There is the very real possibility that the Sox already are lining up Lester for Game 1.

For what it’s worth, Lester in 2009 has not faced the Los Angeles Angels, who almost certainly will be the Sox’ first-round opponent. Beckett is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA against the Angels.

2. How many starters will the Red Sox need in the first round?

The likelihood is four, though that depends on which series the Yankees select. As was the case last year, the American League team with the best record -- in this case, New York -- will have the right to choose its schedule for the first round. If the Yankees choose Series A, that series would begin Wednesday, October 7, and there would be an additional day off between Games 1 and 2. Series B begins Thursday, October 8, with no day off between Game 1 and 2.

So what’s the difference? Because of the additional off-day in Series A, the participating teams would need only three starters. In Series B, four starters are necessary unless a team opts to pitch someone on short rest. Last year, the Angels had the right to choose the series schedule and opted for Series A. Whether the Yankees would do the same remains unclear, particularly because such a decision might allow a team like the Detroit Tigers to throw ace Justin Verlander twice in the first four games.

This season, Verlander is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA against New York. Allowing him to pitch two of the first four games of a series -- any series -- might be risky. As such, there is a chance the Sox would need only three starters in the first round, in which case Lester and Beckett would each get to pitch twice in a five-game series.

3. Assuming a matchup with the Angels, does Lester or Beckett have a decisive advantage over the other?

Overall, Beckett and Lester have had staticically similar years, though Lester’s ERA is now nearly a half-run lower. When both pitchers are at the top of their games, each can retire lefthanders and righthanders with relatively equal efficiency. Beckett has given up more home runs, especially of late, and Lester has a slightly higher walk rate.

One other thing to consider? This year, opposing basestealers have been successful in 14 of 16 with Beckett on the mound; they are 15 of 21 against Lester. As we all know, the Angels like to run. If the Red Sox continue to have difficulty scoring on the road -- this has been especially true in the second half -- controlling the opposing running game could be a critical factor in their ability to win. On paper, at least, Lester would seemingly give them a better chance to restrain an Angels team that is always aggressive on the bases.

4. How will the catching situation work in the playoffs?

Time will tell, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona typically has not strayed from the plan in the postseason. For example: When Tim Wakefield was in the Boston playoff rotation, Francona made a point of continuing to start Doug Mirabelli behind the plate. That suggests that Francona will continue to pair Jason Varitek with Beckett with Victor Martinez assigned to both Lester and Clay Buchholz. So far, Varitek has handled Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Regardless, even if Varitek does start, it became clear last postseason that the Red Sox will hit for him in the later innings when necessary, which could allow for a third catcher on the Boston roster. Even if the Sox do not carry a third catcher, the versatility of Martinez and Kevin Youkilis give Francona great flexibility to adjust his lineup, which could prove quite valuable during the inevitable shuffling that takes place during the playoffs.

5. How will the bullpen shake out?

Based on how Francona has done things in recent weeks, the plan seems clear in the event that things line up precisely how the Red Sox want them: Billy Wagner in the seventh, Daniel Bard in the eighth, Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. Francona obviously reserves the right to flip-flop Wagner and Bard depending on the composition of the opposing lineup, but the Red Sox have indisputable firepower at the end of the game.

On those occasions when Wagner is not available -- again, an additional off-day in the schedule might benefit the Sox here -- Hideki Okajima is likely to figure into the mix, despite his recent struggles. Of the remaining relievers, Ramon Ramirez is likely to get the nod over Manny Delcarmen in any middle-inning situation of consequence given how each has performed in recent weeks.

One final note: the Sox are likely to carry one starter in the bullpen as an "anchor man" in the event they get into a long, extra-inning game that exhausts the bullpen. If the Sox need four starters in the series, the identity of that starter could be in question depending on the health of Wakefield and the performance of Paul Byrd.

Six games up with 17 to play, the Red Sox once again seem destined for October. Under the circumstances, at the risk of jinxing them, maybe it is time to give the Red Sox their due.

Despite a 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels last night at Fenway Park, the Sox left Boston last night on the heels of a brilliant homestand that all but solidified their place in October. Over a span of eight games, the Sox went 7-1.

They outscored opponents 49-20, an average score of roughly 6-3. The Sox batted .311 while posting a 1.99 ERA, outhomering their opponents, 12-2. In the marathon that is the major league season, while the Texas Rangers were floundering against the Oakland A’s, this was how the wild card was won.

Still, make no mistake: The 2009 season has been an extraordinary test of talent, grit, leadership and perseverance.

Naturally, for the general manager, it always feels that way.

Asked by e-mail whether this season has been more of chore than any other during his seven-year tenure, Sox GM Theo Epstein yesterday countered with a rather succinct reply.

"It seems like it’s always a grind,’’ Epstein wrote.

And he’s right. In baseball, given the length of the season and inevitable challenges, nothing ever comes easily and nothing should ever, ever be taken for granted.

This year, especially, we all should have learned that. Let’s remember that the American League East this season was hyped as a three-horse race -- but with room for only two horses. The only guarantee was that at least one team among the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees would be squeezed out.

The surprising emergence of the Texas Rangers as a wild-card contender complicated things, particularly during that midseason stretch when the Red Sox appeared to be unraveling, and Boston’s problems were not imaginary. The Red Sox had holes on offense and defense, as well as in their pitching staff, and the Sox weren’t looking to patch holes so much as they were in need of a renovation.

Given where the Sox are now, this all reflects quite well on the organizational leadership, particularly Epstein, whose in-season acquisitions have paid off enormously. Victor Martinez has been an absolute godsend. Alex Gonzalez has stabilized the defense on the left side of the infield. And while Billy Wagner has been a luxury, Epstein’s decision to build pitching depth -- and hold onto it -- has proven critical given the issues with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield as well as the timely development of Clay Buchholz.

While Terry Francona’s eyebrows were falling out, the Sox similarly were stressed to the point where their collective mettle was tested. Along the way, from Epstein to Francona to the clubhouse, the question wasn’t whether the Sox had the character or the makeup so much as it concerned whether they had the necessary talent.

Said Epstein modestly when asked specifically of imports Martinez, Gonzalez and Wagner: "All three guys have fit in to the team concept and made us a better overall club."

And this year more than most, the Red Sox needed to get better in order to be where they are today. Matsuzaka and Wakefield were sidelined. Mike Lowell was coming off hip surgery. David Ortiz traveled to Hades and back -- twice -- while J.D. Drew vanished for a time. Jonathan Papelbon labored. Jason Bay slumped. Jed Lowrie couldn’t get on the field. Meanwhile, the Yankees took control of the division, effectively leaving the Red Sox with no cushion in their pursuit of the postseason.

This year, by mid-August, it was the wild card or bust. To their credit, the Red Sox are continuing to choose their words carefully, unlike, say, the look-at-me New York Jets. The players in Fenway's home clubhouse recognize that actions speak louder than words. Simply put, the Sox know they have not won anything yet.

At the moment, for those who believe in formalities, the key number for the Red Sox is 97, the number victories the Sox currently need to guarantee a playoff spot. Entering tonight, the Rangers and Los Angeles Angels have seven games remaining against one another, meaning the Sox are guaranteed a combined seven losses from those two teams. In the worst-case scenario for the Sox, the Rangers can still win 97 games and the Angels can win 96. If the Sox get to 97, there is absolutely, positively no way for them to miss the playoffs. By the end of the weekend, that number is likely to dwindle to 96 … or 95 … or 94, particularly as the Sox embark on a road trip against the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Yankees before returning to Fenway Park for the final week of the regular season.

By now, we all know and understand the Red Sox’ formula and idea for success under current ownership and management: shoot for 95 wins every season, make the playoffs eight out of every 10 years, take your chances in the postseason. The championships will come. That plan so far seems to be working to perfection. If and when the Sox lock up their latest playoff berth in the coming days, it will mark their sixth postseason appearance during the seven seasons of Epstein’s tenure. Already, they have won two World Series and been to four League Championship Series.

And while the ultimate success of this Sox season depends on the team’s ability to win a championship -- the standards have changed, after all -- we should soon be able to state that 2009 was not a failure.

This year, after all, the Red Sox got themselves here the old-fashioned way.

They earned it.

As surely as Daisuke Matsuzaka shaved off between 10 and 15 pounds, the Red Sox' pitching staff once again looks thick. As a result, your beloved baseball team is closer to the New York Yankees than the Texas Rangers this morning, offering probable cause that there will be fall baseball in New England this year.

In their grandest of grand plans, this is how Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and John Farrell drew it up last winter: the Red Sox would come at you in waves. Since dropping 3 of 4 to the Chicago White Sox in a disappointing stretch that ended with Josh Beckett’s loss to Mark Buehrle on Labor Day, the Red Sox have returned to their Camelot, posting a perfect 6-0 record at Fenway Park. With 19 games left in the regular season, their advantage in the wild card race is now a whopping six games. During that span, the Red Sox pitching staff -- starters and relievers -- is 6-0 with a 1.26 ERA. In 50 innings, the Sox have held opponents to a .204 average while failing to allow even a single home run, collecting 43 strikeouts against just 16 walks.

"Regardless of who it is [pitching] right now, it doesn’t matter,’’ Red Sox left field Jason Bay said following night’s 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels. "You show up at the ballpark and you feel like you have a legitimate chance to win.’’

Said Farrell: "We feel like every night we take the field the pitcher’s got a chance to keep the game in check and get to the final third of the game, and then turn it over to a group of guys [in the bullpen] that are throwing their tails off."

So Tim Wakefield is out. So tonight’s starter is Paul Byrd. So what? Minus those two men, assuming Matsuzaka remains healthy, the Red Sox pitching staff is currently comprised of what baseball people like to call "stuff guys." At the moment, the soft-tossing but savvy Byrd is the ultimate square peg. From Beckett and Jon Lester to Clay Buchholz and now a recharged Matsuzaka, the Red Sox have the kind of stuff in their rotation that can break bats and produce weak outs. Then, as Farrell noted, the Sox can entrust games to the stormtroopers in their bullpen, an increasingly rare group in which everyone suddenly seems to be throwing in the mid-90s or faster.

Given all that has happened with Matsuzaka this year, last night’s performance was downright eye-popping. Physically, Matsuzaka looked like the man who arrived in Boston in 2007. Tactically, he looked like someone we have never before seen. Matsuzaka attacked the strike zone with a fastball that exploded through the strike zone, making it even more effective than the 92-93 mph he routinely registered on the radar gun. If this is what Matsuzaka can be for the balance of this year -- and, admittedly, that is still a very big if -- the Red Sox just found a fourth starter to join their front three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz, which could prove invaluable in October.

"It’s not very common,’’ Farrell said when asked of the likelihood that Matsuzaka could make such a contribution after having his season effectively derailed. "We were talking the other night -- 'What’s the blueprint for getting a guy back like this?’ -- and I don’t know that there really is one.’’

Appropriate, don’t you think?

At this stage, Matsuzaka is truly a wild card.

In retrospect, maybe we all underestimated the significance of Matsuzaka’s absence this season. For all of the criticisms over the last years -- too many pitches, too much nibbling, not enough innings -- the Red Sox went 23-6 in his 29 outings last year. Because the Red Sox have so much pitching, Matsuzaka doesn’t need to be a horse. What he needs to do is give them a reasonable chance to win every five days, something the club desperately needed from the middle of July through the middle of August. Back then, the Red Sox were mired in what Farrell called "a little bit of flux."

But now? Suddenly the Sox pitching staff seems to be firing strikes like a finely tuned pitching machine: just reload, turn on the power, let it go. As if the addition of Billy Wagner hasn’t given the Sox additional dynamite in the late innings, Ramon Ramirez now seems to be reclaiming the form he demonstrated early in the season, when his first 22 appearances produced a 0.74 ERA and an opposing batting average of .139. Last night, after Matsuzaka walked Kendry Morales to start the seventh, Ramirez retired Juan Rivera, Erick Aybar and Gary Matthews, the last of whom struck out on a changeup that disappeared as if it were a hologram.

"He wants to be the guy and he wants to be thought of when matchups or game planning is taking place,’’ Farrell said of Ramirez. "He’s a fierce competitor.’’

Will all of this carry over to October, where the Red Sox currently seem headed for the sixth time in seven years? That is impossible to say. If the last two months have taught us anything, they have reminded us that no team is ever as bad as it looks during a losing streak, or as good as it looks during a winning streak. The real Red Sox are probably somewhere in between. But as we all know, the air becomes drier and the temperatures cool at this time of year, and almost always, the game goes back to the pitchers.

And at the moment, the Red Sox sure do seem to have a lot of 'em.

The ballpark is one thing. The competition is quite another. And at this stage, we can only wonder where the Red Sox would be without the generous assistance of the Baltimore Orioles.

Shut down by the mediocre Chicago White Sox over the weekend, the Red Sox returned to Fenway Park last night and took out their frustrations on the Uh-O's, pounding Baltimore by a 10-0 score in a game that wasn't nearly that close. The Sox hit five homers before making nine outs, improving to 12-2 against the Orioles this year. Nonetheless, the Sox saw their lead dwindle to two games in the American League wild card race thanks to the Texas Rangers' doubleheader sweep of the Cleveland Indians.

Incredible as it seems, we are now 24 games from the end of the regular season and we still don't know if this Red Sox team is truly capable of making a spirited run at another World Series championship.

Or maybe we do and we just don't want to admit it.

If last night's resounding victory surprised or inspired you, it shouldn't have. There is too much else to consider at this point. No team in baseball has more wins over one opponent this season than the Sox do over the Orioles. Last night's win made the Sox a sterling 12-2 against Baltimore this year, a record that includes an unforgettable 11-10 loss on June 30 in which the Sox somehow blew a 10-1 lead. This year, the Sox have not lost a game to the Orioles in which the Boston starter was anyone other than John Smoltz.

The Orioles have not been the Sox' only punching bag. The Sox are 11-4 against Toronto (another doormat) and went 11-7 against the inferior National League. That leaves the Sox at 46-45 against everyone else. All of this suggests the Sox are far closer to being a mediocre team than they are an elite one.

If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it's a duck.

In retrospect, the clearest line of delineation in this Red Sox season is June 11. That was the day the Sox defeated the Yankees to improve to 8-0 against New York this season. Since that time, the balance of power in the American League has completely flipped. The Red Sox have mauled teams with bad pitching and failed miserably against teams with above-average pitching, particularly as it pertains to starters.

Let's get to the math: At the moment, the Sox currently rank seventh in the league in ERA. Since June 11, against the six teams in front of them in ERA, the Sox are 12-21 while batting .243 and averaging 4.7 runs per game. Against the seven teams behind them, the Sox are 30-12 while batting .277 and averaging 5.6 runs per contest. The Sox take from the poor and give to the rich, which is the truest definition of mediocrity.

Should you believe that every team in baseball follows this pattern, think again. The New York Yankees currently rank sixth in the AL in pitching, though their ERA (4.31) is essentially identical to that of the Sox. Including the head-to-head meetings with the Red Sox, the Yankees are 24-9 against the top pitching teams in the league since June 11. In those games, they have batted .298 while averaging 6.1 runs per contest. The obvious point is that the Yankees have demonstrated an ability to beat everyone, which suggests a far more balanced and potent roster than the one currently occupying the home clubhouse at Fenway Park.

Of course, we all know that the playoffs are a different game. The Red Sox won't need as many starters as they do during the regular season, which will help conceal some of their weaknesses. Since the trading deadline, general manager Theo Epstein has improved the bullpen (Billy Wagner) and the lineup (Victor Martinez) as well as the defense (Alex Gonzalez). Still, the Sox went to Chicago over the weekend and were completely shut down by a White Sox team that had all but packed it in, which was reason to be discouraged.

If the Red Sox make it to the playoffs, assuming health, we all know they have the kind of character and pitching firepower to beat just about anyone. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester alone give them as formidable a 1-2 tandem as there is in the game. But we're now 138 games into the 162-game marathon, and we still have no evidence that the Sox of late 2009 can compete with the big boys.

After all, if the Sox do make it to October, they won't be facing the Baltimore Orioles.

Somewhere in his wildest of wild dreams, this is how the manager draws it up: Wagner in the seventh, Bard in the eighth, Papelbon in the ninth. Opponents beware. Contents are highly flammable.

And so what we have here, potentially, is precisely what the Sox envisioned two years ago when they acquired Eric Gagne in a midseason deal with the Texas Rangers. This time, it might actually work. Possessors of a 4-3 lead entering the bottom of the seventh inning last night at the dungeonesque Tropicana Field, the Red Sox closed out a 6-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays that gave them their first road series win at The Trop since 2007. In the final three innings, Sox manager Terry Francona used Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard, and Jonathan Papelbon for an inning each, giving the Sox greater closing power than either Secretariat or Seabiscuit.

Now that was impressive stuff. Unofficially, of the final 44 pitches thrown by Sox pitchers last night, 35 were fastballs that averaged a shade under 95 miles per hour. During the two victories in Tampa, Sox relievers recorded 10 of the final 18 outs by strikeout -- they went 5 of 9 in each game -- to bring a decisive and emphatic close to what might very well have been the end of the baseball season in Tampa Bay.

At this time of year, we all know that life in the major leagues quite literally becomes a day-to-day existence. Unless or until the Sox pull far enough ahead of the Texas Rangers (or anyone else) in the American League wild card race, every game is critical. We still do not know where the Red Sox are going yet, what is hindering Josh Beckett, or who will start Game 3 of the playoffs, though Clay Buchholz certainly is making his case.

In the interim, here is what we do know: Assuming health -- particularly as it pertains to Wagner -- the Red Sox might actually have more potential closers than they do viable starters. There is not a team in baseball who can match the Red Sox in terms of firepower in the final three innings of any game. Last night, beginning with Wagner’s strikeout of Carl Crawford to end the seventh inning, these were the velocities (in miles per hour) of the fastballs thrown by Wagner, Bard, and Papelbon, enforcers in that part of the game that might now be known as Gasoline Alley: 91, 93, 91, 93, 91, 92, 97, 96, 99, 98, 97, 98, 97, 97, 98, 96, 98, 97, 98, 92, 93, 93, 93, 93, 94, 93, 93, 95, 94, 93, 94, 93, 94, 94, 95.

Oh, and one other thing: If you think those 91s and 92s thrown by Wagner are akin to the 91s and 92s thrown by Daisuke Matsuzaka, think again. Even coming off of Tommy John surgery, Wagner’s ball has life. He has some deception in his delivery. Earlier this week, Wagner also suggested that the radar gun at the Trop was a little slow, which cannot help but make one wonder if his 91s and 92s are closer to Papelbon’s 94s than they are Matsuzaka’s 90s.

Regardless, the bottom line is that the new-and-improved Red Sox are effectively shortening games, and we have yet to even discuss Hideki Okajima, who has a career ERA of 2.63 and has averaged 8.38 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Particularly in the postseason, when the presence of travel days allows for managers to exhaust (and recharge) their bullpens with greater regularity, this will take a great burden off Red Sox starters like Buchholz, who needed go only six innings last night for his most important win in a big league uniform.

In relatively recent baseball history, we all have come to learn the potential impact of a dominating bullpen, particularly in the postseason. In 1990, behind the Nasty Boys trio of Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble, and Randy Myers, the Cincinnati Reds did not merely upset the Oakland A’s in the World Series; they swept them. The 1996 New York Yankees had only two dominating relievers instead of three -- Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland -- but Rivera’s ability to pitch multiple innings at that stage of his career allowed then-Yankees manager Joe Torre to turn the game over to his bullpen after the sixth inning. And in 2002, Angels manager Mike Scioscia was able to mask the deficiencies of a relatively thin starting rotation with a relief corps built around Troy Percival, Brendan Donnelly, and Francisco Rodriguez, the last of whom burst onto the scene as a 20-year-old, late-season call-up to serve as the ultimate secret weapon.

In 5 2/3 innings during his five regular season appearances that year, Rodriguez amassed a preposterous 13 strikeouts. In 18 2/3 additional postseason innings, he whiffed another 28. Rodriguez was aided by the fact that he was young and relatively unknown, factors that similarly could help the Sox down the stretch.

Think about it: If the Red Sox were to get to the World Series, how much experience will, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers have had facing Bard? Meanwhile, many American League hitters are now getting their first look at Wagner, who has heretofore spent his entire career in the National League. The Red Sox bullpen has power and it has newness, and it now has the ability to do precisely what it did in St. Petersburg, Fla. this week in the recently completed three-game series with the Rays.

It has the ability to extinguish opponents with pure, high-octane gas.

This is when the Red Sox would miss him, of course. This is when the absence of Jonathan Papelbon would haunt them the most. This is when Terry Francona trusts Papelbon as much as any manager trusts any pitcher in baseball, when the competition intensifies and the games take on additional meaning.

The Red Sox opened an important three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays with an 8-4 win in the juice box known as Tropicana Field last night, and the final score suggests a victory easier than it really was. The Sox held a 7-2 advantage when Francona summoned Hideki Okajima for the bottom of the eighth, when an apparent blowout victory started to get slippery. Okajima faced five batters, allowing four hits and a walk, and the next thing you knew it was a 7-4 game with the bases loaded and nobody out.

That is when Francona summoned Papelbon for the first two-inning save of the closer’s career, an event that served as a timely reminder of just who Papelbon is and what he means to the Red Sox.

"You get his best stuff in those situations," Francona later told reporters of his closer. "He’s able to still execute all of his pitches because he throws strikes. He’s really good, but you get the best of him in those situations."

The Red Sox seemingly have a lot of elements in their favor as they continue to angle towards October, so maybe it is time to remember perhaps the single best thing they have going for them: Their closer is virtually bulletproof in big games. Among major league pitchers in with at least 285 innings pitched -- Papelbon now has 287.2 -- Papelbon has the third-lowest ERA in history behind only Al Spalding and Ed Walsh, neither of whom pitched after 1917. As we all know, the baseballs used in games back them might as well have been beanbags.

And then there is this: Papelbon has never allowed a run in the playoffs. Among pitchers with at least 25 career postseason innings, Papelbon has both the lowest ERA in history, a number that just happens to match the grade point average of one John Blutarsky: Zero point zero zero. When the going gets tough . . . the tough get going.

Bluto comes with some flaws; everyone does. In the midst of the Billy Wagner flap, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein made the surprising, amusing and spot-on remark that Papelbon isn’t exactly "a Rhodes Scholar." With regard to closing, maybe that is an asset. During his brilliant career, Papelbon frequently has pitched as if entirely unaware that defeat was a possibility. He is nothing short of a baseball Green Beret, an entirely fearless and skilled combatant who embraces true confrontation. When people like Francona speak of players who like to "compete," they are talking about men like Papelbon.

Lest there be any doubt, Francona, too, is more competitive than many assume. The Red Sox entered last night’s game with a four-game lead over the Texas Rangers and five-game lead over the Rays in the American League wild card race, and yet the Sox treated the series with a certain urgency. Over the weekend, the Sox shuffled their pitching to get last night’s starter, Jon Lester, into the series. Even with Lester on the mound, Francona chose Victor Martinez as his starting catcher. Then he relied on Papelbon for six outs in a save situation, something that has not happened here since Papelbon became the closer at the start of the 2006 season.

The Red Sox took this game seriously. They sure did. And with one or two more wins over the next two nights, they could effectively crush Tampa Bay’s windpipe. In the process, they might even pick up a little more ground on the Texas Rangers.

For Papelbon, last night was important in so many ways. Roughly a week after he questioned whether Wagner could help at all, let the record show that Wagner pitched a scoreless, dominating seventh before Papelbon recorded the final six outs. Okajima may have struggled in between, but Wagner and Papelbon collectively faced nine batters and struck out five. They did not allow a baserunner. Together, they threw first-pitch strikes to seven batters on what effectively amounted to one trip through the Tampa lineup, and they threw 29 of 41 pitches for strikes.

In the words of Dick Vitale: Totally awesome, baby, with a capital A.

This year more than any other, Papelbon has shown his mortality. The walks and homers are up; his fastball hasn’t had quite the same explosiveness. The rapid ascension of Daniel Bard has perhaps given the Sox and their followers a glimpse at the future, and there has been some speculation throughout the game that Papelbon could be available by trade as early as the approaching offseason. The Red Sox still have Papelbon under their control through the 2011 campaign -- he is eligible only for arbitration until then -- and the general history of closers suggests that they are more like meteors than stationary stars, the kind of floating bodies around which teams cannot plot their direction.

And yet, last night, Jonathan Papelbon issued us all a reminder:

As you look up at that same sky, be careful what you wish for.

Were we talking about the Josh Beckett of June, there would be positively no cause for concern. But at the moment, at least, the Beckett of late August is something altogether different, and the Red Sox currently appear more vulnerable than they would like.

The circus was in town at Fenway Park last night, the Sox dropping a 9-5 decision to the Chicago White Sox in a game that felt far more like the 13-0 drubbing against Tampa Bay on April 30. Before last night, that was the last time a Boston positional player -- in that case, Jonathan Van Every -- had been forced to pitch. The Sox subsequently took the field the next day behind Justin Masterson, who gave up six runs in six innings of an eventual 6-2 loss that left the Sox at 14-9 for the season with a whopping 139 games to play.

But this?

This is late August. The games have a far different feel now and the playoff races are at a virtual boil. The Red Sox tonight will send Beckett to the mound against a Toronto Blue Jays outfit that that has been stripped down in recent weeks, and they will do so following a game in which manager Terry Francona opted for Nick Green as his reliever of choice in the eighth inning of what was a 9-2 game. Even after the Sox scored a pair of runs in the eighth to make it 9-4, Green took the mound for the ninth.

"That’s not an easy decision," Francona said of his choice to pitch Green in a game that was not appropriately lopsided. "If we went to [Jonathan Papelbon], he wouldn’t be available [tonight]. If we went to [Hideki Okajima], he wouldn’t be available [tonight]. [Takashi] Saito is not available. He slept on his neck wrong, so he’s out of the picture. [Billy] Wagner was unavailable.

"It was a rough night, right from the beginning," Francona said. "As bleak as the game was looking, it looked worse from where we were."

Translation: In the early innings of last night’s game, Francona and pitching coach John Farrell knew they were on a crash course for Green. Very few others did, which is why the move seemed so surprising.

All of this brings us back to Beckett, whose last two outings have produced an 0-1 record and 10.12 ERA. In 13 1/3 innings, he has allowed 18 hits, 15 runs, and 8 homers. Opponents have batted .316 against him with an .807 slugging percentage and a 1.129 OPS. All of that damage has come while Beckett has issued one walk, which is to say that there has been nothing fluky about this. He has been getting pounded.

Following his last start, an 8-4 defeat to the Yankees in which he allowed five home runs, Beckett seemed so annoyed that he strained to censor himself. And as we all know, this is a man who never stops short in criticizing himself when the situation calls for it.

More than anyone, Beckett knows this is a bad time of year for a slump, especially with the Red Sox having relatively little consistency in their starting rotation.

For all of the debate and discussion surrounding the Sox lately -- should Victor Martinez catch more? Is Junichi Tazawa being rushed? -- we almost all agree on one thing: Without Beckett in top form, the Sox will have no chance at winning another world title. None. Maybe the Sox would make the playoffs, maybe they would not. Regardless, they are not winning a championship without him in peak form. We learned that last October, when Beckett pitched with an oblique strain that stripped him of his explosive velocity. And we learned it in 2006, when Beckett slogged through his first year in the American League, issuing 74 walks and serving up precisely three dozen homers as if they were glazed donuts.

Since that time, Beckett has gone 46-22, a .676 winning percentage that ranks second among all qualifying pitchers to only Jon Lester (30-13, .698). He has more wins in the AL than any pitcher but Roy Halladay (49-25, .662). Given that Lester did not begin to fully blossom until May of last year, Beckett has been the block of granite on which the Red Sox pitching staff has been built. Lester has developed into a front-line pitcher under his wing. The bullpen routinely has been spared on those days Beckett has pitched. The Sox have won with consistency every time Beckett has taken the mound.

Now, following a night on which Green was far more effective than Tazawa, the Red Sox cannot afford another clunker from their ace. The last time Beckett allowed 15 earned runs in consecutive starts -- in his final two outings of April -- he responded by going 12-2 with a 2.17 ERA over the span of 18 starts. That run thrust him into the thick of AL Cy Young Award contention and helped carry the Red Sox into the middle of playoff contention. Now the Sox are playing the most important regular season games they have played in years -- from here on out every contest becomes more and more like a playoff game -- and this is that time for which they pay Beckett more than any other pitcher on the Boston staff.

Starting tonight, the Red Sox need their ace to get back where he belongs.

Out in front.

Billy Wagner is 38 years old and recovering from major elbow surgery, and tonight he will join a Red Sox team in the heart of an intense playoff race. The Red Sox believe Wagner can help them, a determination they were forced to make quickly and one requiring far more than a simple trip to New York.

In many ways, the scouting of Billy Wagner has been going on for years.

"Actually, I had my wife get an old report because I saw him in college," said Allard Baird, a special assistant to Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein who was among a group of club officials involved on the decision to acquire the veteran lefthander. "I saw him in the minor leagues and I saw him in the big leagues, too. I saw him last year before the injury.

"In this particular situation, you look for differences," Baird said. "That’s not being negative, but you go in looking for differences and hoping you see consistencies."

So this is how it worked on Wagner, from Baird to Epstein to Galen Carr, Ray Fagnant and Jamie Bane, all (and more) of whom were involved in an aggressive and risky roll of the dice to add a power lefty to the Boston bullpen. Carr and Fagnant were in New York when Wagner made his return to the majors last Thursday.

And in evaluating whether Wagner was worth a gamble requiring the Sox to part with $3.5 million for six weeks of service -- the players who will be dealt to New York are a far lesser and relatively inconsequential price -- the Sox relied on a scouting history that began roughly 15 years ago, when Wagner was firing bullets for Ferrum College.

For Baird, formerly the general manager of the Kansas City Royals, scouting Wagner was not merely as simple as looking at radar gun readings and assessing the sharpness of Wagner’s slider. He collected information on Wagner’s pregame routine and watched him stretch. He paid attention to Wagner’s warmup sessions, taking particular note of how long it took him to get loose, how he stretched, what pitches he focused on. He compared all of that information to his own personal reports and those compiled by Red Sox scouts over the years, all in an attempt to answer a few simple questions.

How close is Wagner to being the same man who has amassed 385 career saves? Are his fastball and slider still good enough to be effective at something less than 100 percent? How is Wagner’s psyche in the wake of elbow surgery, specifically as it pertains to his aggressiveness and intensity?

And ultimately: Can he help?

"You look at past video before he had the surgery, you look at past reports, you look at all those things before you even see the player perform," Baird said. "A lot of those things are subjective, but they can be useful. …Theo is an extremely detailed guy. We took the approach where we had people in the office looking at video, scouts in the field, everything.

"The thing is, he is coming back from rehab, but the arm strength is there and the aggressive with that arm strength is there. That’s a big factor, too. There’s no reluctance to be aggressive in the strike zone. The last outing [on Monday], you could tell watching him warm up that he was antsy to get in the game."

Whether all of this will pay dividends for the Red Sox is anybody’s guess, though it should be stressed that the cost here for the Sox seems relatively small. After all, it’s only money. The Red Sox have a deep bullpen. Their success or failure does not hinge on Wagner’s health nearly as much as it does on several other factors, from the depth of their starting rotation to the consistency of their lineup. For the Sox, Wagner is a luxury.

So why did the Sox make this move? Because even with 5 mph shaved from his fastball, Wagner still throws harder than the large majority of lefthanded relievers in the major leagues. Because he gives the Red Sox another potential weapon. Because the Red Sox are a big market team that can spend $3.5 million on a player for six weeks of service and be none the worse for wear, and because the Sox came away convinced that Wagner still has enough juice -- even after Tommy John surgery -- to be far more effective than most big league relievers.

Even so, rest assured that this was an unusual acquisition for any major league team, even one with a big payroll and more than its share of issues. As the Red Sox learned with John Smoltz, players rehabilitating from injury are a great risk, even if the potential reward is high. Wagner’s elbow could flare up at any time and the Red Sox could be out another $3.5 million. But as Billy Wagner joins the Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park, know that the Red Sox have been watching him a long time on the odd chance that he might someday be able to help them win a world title.

Now you know why your parents always urged you to do your homework.

With regard to Billy Wagner, there is really just one question: What’s the downside? The Red Sox are giving up two players to be named, neither of which is expected to a prospect of any consequence. They get a lefty reliever who can throw in the mid 90s, even after elbow surgery. And they have the space in their bullpen, despite the initial concerns of closer Jonathan Papelbon.

In the end, all this is going to cost the Red Sox is $3.5 million, a paltry sum for a team with an annual payroll in the range of $150 million.

Yes, Wagner comes with limitations. He cannot pitch on back-to-back days. He has a career postseason ERA of 8.71. Maybe he will be a bust. But the Red Sox gave up virtually nothing here for the chance to add, at worst, a situational lefty with strikeout power who could help them now and in the playoffs -- especially against a left-handed lineup like the one in New York -- while preserving their right to offer arbitration and regain talent through draft picks.

That latter point, in particular, should not go overlooked. Had he remained with the Mets this season, New York likely would have offered Wagner arbitration over the winter so that the Mets qualified for compensation. The Red Sox knew that, which is why they called Wagner’s bluff. When push came to shove, Wagner had to choose between pitching for the Mets in 2009 or pitching for the Red Sox, and the latter opportunity does not afford him solely the chance at a world title. It also affords him the opportunity to prove that he can still pitch when it matters, something New York could not give him.

So how will the Sox use Wagner? Instantly, he gives them a second lefty to go along with Hideki Okajima. He has closing experience. Sox manager Terry Francona can use Wagner for one out or for three, depending on the opposing lineup, depending on the workload on other Sox relievers. The Red Sox bullpen is deep enough that the Sox can carry someone like Wagner -- just as they are carrying Takasho Saito -- because the Sox long ago learned the golden rule of baseball.

You can never have too much pitching.

Barring a return trip in October, the New York Yankees will not return to Boston this year. And so as Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter led a roster of New Yorkers pulling roll-away bags through the cavernous concourses at Fenway Park late last night, there was no doubt where the Yankees were headed.

October.

As for the Red Sox, there is still a great deal of work to do following a three-game weekend series that played out like a "Seinfeld" episode. In the end, it was all a show about nothing. The Yankees extended their lead in the division to a whopping 7 1/2 games. Boston preserved a one-game lead over Texas in the wild card standings while whittling three more days off the schedule. And the Red Sox are no longer competing with the Yankees so much as they are with the rest of the American League.

Truth be told, the next four games against the Chicago White Sox are far more important to the Red Sox than the three games they just completed with New York.

"We’re okay. We don’t need to reassess our team or anything like that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said following an 8-4 defeat in which the Yankees teed off against Josh Beckett as if he were John Wasdin. "We know it’s a late night. The White Sox are already sitting there waiting but we’re okay. We just need to come out and play. Our guys do a good job of that."

Indeed they do. Right now, it’s the winning that’s giving them trouble, at least on a consistent basis.

With that in mind -- and with exactly 39 games remaining for each team -- here is an overview of the wild card race between the Red Sox, Rangers, and Rays entering what amounts to the fourth quarter of the Major League season:

RED SOX

Odds to win wild card: 2 to 1.

Record: 70-53.

Schedule: Moderate. Beginning with tonight’s series opener against the White Sox, the Red Sox will play 20 of their remaining games against teams with winning records (Chicago, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, New York) and 19 games against teams with losing records (Baltimore, Cleveland, Toronto, Kansas City). The six games against Tampa obviously will provide Texas an opportunity to gain on at least the Sox or Rays, provided that the Rangers win their games.

Greatest assets: Experience and front-end pitching. Despite Josh Beckett’s struggles in his last two starts, the Red Sox still have the best 1-2 punch in the American League, particularly in the postseason. In fact, as one Sox player noted before last night’s game with the Yankees, the Sox might be built more for the postseason than the regular season thanks to a deep bullpen as well as the presence of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester at the front end of the rotation. If the Sox get in -- and if they can set up their pitching -- would you really want to play them?

Biggest weaknesses: Rotation depth, lineup. Tim Wakefield is set to return to the rotation Wednesday, but what if he has problems? Then what? Clay Buchholz stands as an obvious key and the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka could prove huge, but there is still instability beyond Beckett and Lester. Meanwhile, there is pressure on manager Terry Francona to make the right lineup choices on a nightly basis. Once the Sox get beyond the No. 5 spot in the lineup, it’s a game of musical chairs.

TEXAS RANGERS

Odds to win wild card: 2 to 1.

Record: 69-54.

Schedule: Favorable. Generally speaking, the Rangers have a similar schedule to that of the Red Sox -- 19 games against teams with winning records (New York, Seattle, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay) and 20 games against teams with losing records (Minnesota, Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland). So why is this better news for Texas than for Boston? Because the Red Sox and Rays still have to play one another six times. For the Rangers, that’s six guaranteed losses combined for the clubs they are competing against. Big advantage there.

Greatest assets: Pitching, speed, defense. The Rangers may not have a candidate for the Cy Young Award, but they have depth through the rotation and bullpen, especially with the arrivals of Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz. The addition of rookie Elvis Andrus at shortstop has improved the infield defense and the Rangers have an ability to manufacture runs when they need to. Texas pitching has been one of the great surprises in baseball this year, but do not be deceived: There’s nothing fluky anymore. The Rangers rank ahead of both the Red Sox and Rays in team ERA.

Biggest weaknesses: Inexperience, offensive inconsistency. With regard to the Texas youth, it’s really not a question of whether the Rangers will succumb to pressure. Rather, the question is whether some of the club’s younger arms can withstand the grind of the longer season. Adrenaline alone might solve that. Offensively, the Rangers not a great team anymore and they rank near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. If the Rangers are pitched properly, particularly on the road, they often will get themselves out.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Odds to win wild card: 4 to 1.

Record: 67-56.

Schedule: Difficult. The Rays have just four series remaining against teams with losing records -- two against Toronto, two against Baltimore. Beyond that, the Rays have to play the balance of their games against the Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners and Angels. Excluding the Sox, against whom the Rays are 8-4, Tampa is just 21-28 this season against teams with winning records. The Rays have cleaned up on clubs like the Royals and Jays -- they’re 18-4 combined against those teams -- but have looked ordinary against anyone other than Boston.

Strengths: Speed, bullpen, character. At their best, the Rays can beat anyone. Tampa’s lineup has improved significantly this season -- the Rays essentially have scored as many runs as the Sox -- and the bullpen currently leads the AL in ERA. Over the last year or so, the Rays seem to have played their best at the most important times -- especially against the Red Sox -- and the team has good makeup and leadership. Last year, aside from being hungry, the Rays proved they are feisty and downright tough.

Biggest weakness: Rotation depth. Once you get past James Shields, Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann, the rotation is thin. David Price and Scott Kazmir certainly have the potential to be dominating, but the inconsistencies of each have held the Rays back. If Price and Kazmir can click over the last several weeks, the Rays could easily string together a long winning streak. But given the Rays’ schedule from here on out, one can’t help but wonder if Tampa already has blown its chance.

Nothing comes easily for them now, from the top of the rotation to the back of the bullpen, from the first out to the last. Even the wins are a struggle. The best things the Red Sox have going for them are resiliency and determination, attributes that have been hallmarks during this remarkable stage of their history.

Holding on for dear life against the Toronto Blue Jays while the Texas Rangers were losing to the Minnesota Twins, the Red Sox eked out a 10-9 decision last night at the Rogers Centre in a win requiring every last bit of their energy. The wildcard is a dead heat now. There are precisely 44 games to play. Unlike the nouveau riche Rangers, the Red Sox have a considerable wealth of experience and success to draw from at the moment, and they may very well need every last bit of it.

"One of those days, you just say, 'You know what, I don't have my best stuff, I don't have my best delivery, got to grind it out and do what I can to preserve the win,"' Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon told reporters after yet another white-knuckle finish. "Those situations, you take whatever you can get. Doesn't matter how you get the outs, doesn't matter what happens."

So long as the end result is a win.

Beggars can't be choosers, folks. Right now, the Sox are in no position to ask for style points. Four games into a six-game road trip through Texas and Toronto, the Sox are 2-2. They could easily be 0-4. On Friday night, the Sox needed a six-run ninth inning to escape with an 8-4 win.

Last night, despite staking their ace to several leads and handing over a three-run advantage to their once-impenetrable closer, the Sox turned blue from holding their breath. When Jays catcher Rod Barajas ended the game by fouling out to first baseman Kevin Youkilis with two men on in the ninth, all of New England was desperately waiting to exhale.

Entering last night, the Sox were 17-6 in Beckett's 23 starts this season. Since the start of the 2006 campaign, they were 195-40 in Papelbon's 235 career regular-season appearances. The combination of those factors should have made this game about the closest thing the Sox can get to a slam dunk, and yet the club had to fight, scratch, claw and grind its way to a win.

For all of those who believe there are simple answers to the Red Sox' issues at the moment, think again. Precisely one week after Mike Lowell came off the bench to hit two homers in a 7-5 win over the Detroit Tigers -- Lowell entered after Kevin Youkilis was ejected for charging the mound -- super Tuesday this time belonged to Sox designated hitter David Ortiz, who was not in manager Terry Francona's original lineup.

Ortiz was inserted only after catcher Jason Varitek was scratched with a neck/shoulder ailment that he has been fighting for much of the season, forcing Victor Martinez to become Beckett's batterymate and dropping Ortiz back into the Sox lineup.

As Beckett struggled -- coincidence or circumstance? -- Ortiz had a double, home run and three RBIs in his first two plate appearances. The Sox are now 16-2 this season when Ortiz hits a home run. Ten days after the Sox left New York having been swept by the Yankees, the team still seems to be conducting a fire drill and the lineup looks like a game of musical chairs. That is hardly anyone's fault. Yesterday, just as the Sox were preparing for the return of Youkilis from a five-game suspension, Dustin Pedroia flew back to Boston to be with his wife for the birth of their first child.

On the road to October life just keeps getting in the way for the 2009 Red Sox.

In many ways, more than anyone else, Ortiz stands alone as the poster boy for this current Sox edition. No one else on the team this season has experienced anything even remotely comparable to Ortiz' roller-coaster existence. He looked finished during the first two months. Then he got hot. Then he was identified as being on the government list of those connected to the 2003 survey testing for performance-enhancing substances. Then Ortiz went cold again, batting .156 over a span of 17 games through last week's home series against the Tigers.

Over the weekend, prior to the series opener with Texas, Ortiz vented about the way he has been treated by some members of the local and national media. Since that time, he has been nothing short of a one-man wrecking crew. In the last four games, Ortiz is 5 for 11 with three home runs, two doubles, six RBIs, seven runs scored and seven walks. The Red Sox have needed every bit of it to merely tread water and keep pace in a playoff race that seems destined to go down to the wire.

Of course, Ortiz was a member of the 2004 Sox team that came back against the Yankees and a member of the 2007 team that came back against the Cleveland Indians. He has been through more difficult times than this. For that matter, so have Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield. Many of the current Sox were members of the '07 club.

One of the best things the Sox had going for them then was what they have going for them now, an ability to plod along, to march on, to compete and to fight.

What we do not know is whether that will be enough.

Elvis Andrus steals second base vs. the Sox Saturday in Texas. (AP)

They can't stop the run and they just got passed. Now the Red Sox are in a dogfight with the Texas Rangers, of all teams, and history has taught us that simply squeaking into the playoffs probably won't be good enough.

Precisely 45 games now remain for the Red Sox in this regular season, but do not be deceived. The relevant number is actually slightly less. To some degree, the Red Sox lost control of their own fate by dropping 2 of 3 to the Rangers over the weekend, slipping a half-game behind (a full game in the loss column) in the American League wild card race with seven weeks to play.

But even if the Sox make the playoffs, there is now sufficient cause to worry about what kind of shape they will be in when they get there.

Remember 2005? That was the year the Sox were forced to play the final weekend against the New York Yankees while the rested Chicago White Sox patiently waited for a dance partner. The Red Sox were swept in the first round. Meanwhile, in the two most recent years that produced world titles -- 2004 and 2007 -- the Sox were willing to sacrifice a division title for the safety net known as the wild card, largely because it would allow them to get their team in order for the start of the postseason.

This year, with the division all but gone, the Sox seemingly have no choice but to fight to the finish -- and without a net. That could strip them of their ability to prepare for the playoffs, specifically as it pertains to their pitching.

Let's turn back the clock to 2007 for a moment.

"It means a lot, but it means nothing as far as winning a World Series," manager Terry Francona said that year while the Red Sox were seemingly losing grasp of the division title. "It means a lot for what you set out to accomplish, I think. I don't think there's any getting around that, and I don't think we want to. But when it's all said and done, it won't have any bearing on how far we get into the postseason."

Translation: The Red Sox were willing to sacrifice the division for the greater good, which was the world title. They saw far more benefit in entering the playoffs as a rested-and-ready wild card than as a tired-and-taxed division winner. Remember, they could have pushed for the division title in 2004 as well. They chose not to. They subsequently began the playoffs on the road against the Los Angeles Angels, whom they wiped out in three games.

Oh, and did we mention that those same Angels were forced to play for their postseason lives on the final weekend of the regular season in Oakland, against an A's team similarly scraping to get into the playoffs? As it turned out, that series meant nothing. One week later, both the Angels and A's were gone, partly because they were in no shape to compete against better, more prepared teams.

Jon Lester (AP)

For these Red Sox, lest anyone misunderstand, this is all about the pitching. With the weekend results in Texas, the Sox are now 32-15 in games started by the tandem of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, 34-36 in games started by anyone else.

We all understand the potential impact of Boston's top two starters in any short series. Combined, Beckett and Lester could start as many as three games in a five-game series or as many as four games in a seven-game series, assuming the Red Sox are properly positioned to make that happen. If that scenario were to unfold, nobody in his (or her) right mind would discount the Sox from any competition.

But what happens if Beckett or Lester -- or both -- have to pitch on the final weekend of the season to get the Sox into the playoffs? The Sox then might end up like their 2005 ancestors, who were forced to open the playoffs against the White Sox behind Matt Clement. Chicago won Game 1 by a preposterous 14-2 score and Boston never recovered.

At this point, a considerable 117 games into the schedule -- more than 72 percent of the season -- we know what the Red Sox are: an excellent team on the days Beckett or Lester pitches, a generally mediocre one on the days anyone else takes the mound. At the moment, the one potential exception in this argument is Tim Wakefield, behind whom the Sox are 13-4. The only questions are whether Wakefield will pitch again this year at all, and, if he does, how effectively he will pitch. That makes him as big a variable as any other.

At this stage, we know what the Sox are. If they don't maximize every chance with Beckett and Lester, they're cooked.

"We haven't played up to our capability, that's for sure," Mike Lowell told reporters following Sunday's loss. "If today was the last game of the season, I think we'd all be crying right now. But we still have a month and a half of baseball left and a chance to turn it around. I think we've got to look at it as that. But we can't keep playing the way we are. We have to improve in more than just one area.

"We're not going to trade nine guys. We have to do it with the guys we have. We're capable of it. We've just got to get more hits."

Whether the Sox can do that is difficult to say, particularly following a couple of recent moves that have changed the roster. Victor Martinez came and Justin Masterson went. Alex Gonzalez is now the shortstop. The Sox played much of the weekend with a makeshift group thanks to the suspension of Kevin Youkilis and a groin injury to J.D. Drew -- and it showed. While the Rangers ran wild against Brad Penny -- that's 27 of 29 in steal attempts against him this year -- the bottom third of the Boston lineup was a shallow as a kiddie pool.

Beginning tomorrow, the Sox will play a three-game series in Toronto. Then they will begin a 10-game homestand against the Yankees, White Sox, and Jays. After that, they have a seven-game road trip to Tampa and Chicago. The midseason creampuffs have been erased from the Boston schedule and now the Sox are doing the chasing, all at a time when the Rangers will be playing the bulk of their games against the A's and Mariners.

The point?

If the Red Sox don't get a lead -- and soon -- it may not matter in the long run. Because they will have no more games to play.

First, you need to understand who Josh Beckett is. He takes credit for nothing. He takes responsibility for everything. And he is not at all interested in pounding his chest so much as he interested in thumping the competition, mostly because he believes that self-promotion is for losers.

"I feel like I did my job," Beckett said following last night’s 8-2 win over the Detroit Tigers that left him with a 14-4 record and 3.10 ERA this season. "It’s not that I’m not happy with myself. I just don’t let myself look back and I don’t look forward. Looking at the results is something I’ve done in the past and it’s something I generally don’t let myself fall back into."

So he focuses on the here and now, on the only time that matters, on the moment.

Lose yourself.

Beckett made his 23d start for the Red Sox last night, which is noteworthy on a number of levels. With five more starts, he will trigger the $12 million option on his contract for next season, though the Red Sox were certain to exercise that anyway. And why not? Since May 1, a span covering 18 starts, Beckett’s 2.17 ERA is the best in the American League. During that stretch, he is 12-2 while holding opponents to a .208 average. He has done it all while averaging 14.9 pitches per inning, efficiency nearly unheard of for a man who averages better than eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Beckett has been so darned good that last night, he actually sounded happy with himself, which is to say that he was not dismissive or contemptuous when the conversation turned to him.

"He’s never complacent," pitching coach John Farrell said of his ace. "I think anything less than seven innings is not good enough for him. On a night like [last night], when he turns the game over to the bullpen and the game is in control -- not over, but in control -- I think he takes some satisfaction in that. But it would never affect the next four days and how he prepares for the next start."

Again using May 1 as a starting line, Beckett has averaged better than seven innings per start, never pitching fewer than six. He has three complete games and two shutouts. The Red Sox have outscored opponents 90-48, a ratio of roughly 2–to-1. Take away Beckett’s one bad outing during that stretch -- an 11-6 Sox loss at Philadelphia on June 14 -- and the Sox have taken apart opponents by the count of 84-37, an average score of roughly 5-2.

Following last night’s game, Sox manager Terry Francona would not go so far as to say that he can plan his bullpen around Beckett’s outings every five days, but he effectively admitted that, at this stage, Beckett could only be derailed by an unforeseen happening.

"We certainly know he’s coming and we have expectations when he’s pitching," Francona said. "But I don’t think we can ever [plan] that with anybody. All it takes is for someone to take a ball off the shin. If you’re not prepared for something fluky, you can get yourself in a bind."

At the moment, make no mistake: if Beckett were to get knocked around in his next start -- against Toronto on Tuesday -- it would qualify as fluky.

Last night, particularly without slugger Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers never really had a chance. Beckett retired the first 11 batters of the game before walking Clete Thomas with two outs in the fourth. He did not allow a hit until Carlos Guillen’s leadoff homer in the fifth. Detroit went just 3 for 23 against him and had only two at-bats with men on base, the first producing a strikeout by Marcus Thames, the second a double-play ground out by Magglio Ordonez. Of Beckett’s 97 pitches, 89 were from the windup. He threw a mere eight pitches from the stretch, seven of those came in the strikeout of Thames following the two-out walk to Thomas in the fourth.

With 49 games now remaining in this season, we all know where the Red Sox stand. Currently the possessors of a two-game lead in the wild card race, the Sox are 17-6 when Beckett pitches, 31-15 in games started by Beckett or Jon Lester. Behind anyone else, the Sox are 34-33. The inconsistency of the Boston rotation beyond the top two starters has made the outings of Beckett and Lester virtual must-win situations. Last week, though Beckett and Lester allowed two runs in 20 innings covering three starts combined, the Sox nonetheless lost six in a row to their two chief division rivals.

This week, of course, the opposite is happening. Because the Sox won behind both Brad Penny and Junichi Tazawa, they took the field last night behind their ace with a good chance at a three-game winning streak. If Clay Buchholz can somehow find a way to neutralize Justin Verlander this afternoon, the Sox will send Lester to the mound tomorrow night against the Rangers -- suddenly, that looks like a very big series -- with a reasonable chance to win five in a row.

"You come here everyday with the guys you have at the major league level, and you go out there and you except to win," said Sox outfielder Jason Bay. "And then there are those that Josh is pitching. You really feel like you have a chance, and sometimes it might only take one run. The way he’s been going, save maybe a couple starts early on, he’s been unbelievable. It’s a blast to play behind. It’s Cy Young stuff. Every team needs that guy, that stopper, that ace. Right now, he’s that and then some."

Nearly four years ago, when the Red Sox acquired Beckett in a landmark deal with the Florida Marlins, the young righthander was coming off a career-best 15-win season that seemed like a potential spring board for his career. Even though Beckett struggled in 2006, he still won 16 games. Today, beginning with that 15-win campaign in Florida, Beckett has more wins over the last five seasons (77) than any pitcher in the game but Johan Santana (79), though the two have the same winning percentage (.658). The Red Sox have yet another king in the royal line that has run from Roger Clemens to Pedro Martinez to Curt Schilling, and Beckett’s legacy in Boston is being etched right before our very eyes.

Every five days, it seems, the Red Sox can take a breath.

Right now, with regard to Beckett, even the man himself cannot find too much to complain about.

Mike Lowell watches one of his two home runs Tuesday night. (Jim Davis / Globe Staff)

At his worst, Mike Lowell is a dissatisfied, stubborn and proud man frustrated with his plight. At his best, he is a bona fide, qualified, and certified RBI man whose productivity speaks for itself.

Last night, he was a little of both.

"I’m grateful that I’m at least swinging a good bat," Lowell said last night following the Red Sox’ 7-5 win over the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. "I don’t know why you wouldn’t want a good bat in your lineup."

Lowell was not supposed to play in this game, of course. Once again, it was his turn to sit. Shortly after Lowell and his balky hip returned from the disabled list last month, the Red Sox executed a series of transactions as if they were trading shares on the floor of the stock exchange: prospects for Adam LaRoche, LaRoche for Casey Kotchman, prospects for Victor Martinez. When the closing bell sounded, the Red Sox were left with Martinez, Kotchman, Lowell, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis - "five or six position guys for four spots," as Lowell put it – in an attempt to bolster a Boston lineup that had been sagging.

Ten games later, Martinez and Youkilis are the only players among that group who have played every game. Martinez may not sit anytime soon. Youkilis will have no choice.

Which brings us back to Lowell.

In the aftermath of Youkilis’w ejection last night following his decision to charge the mound in bottom of the second inning -- a suspension is inevitable -- Lowell entered the game as a pinch runner. He ended up going 2 for 3 with a pair of homers, three RBI and three runs scored, prompting his manager to laud Lowell’s "professionalism." Like most everyone else in New England at this stage, Francona knows that Lowell is a full-time player who takes pride in being in the lineup everyday. He also knows that the Sox’ current surplus of bodies, coupled with Lowell’s recovery from hip surgery, has put some restrictions on his ability to serve as such.

At the moment, is there anything to be drawn from the fact that Lowell is batting .368 since the All-Star break, when the Red Sox decided to lessen his workload? Maybe yes, maybe no.

"I think that’s a good way to justify it because we have five or six position guys for four spots," countered Lowell. "I’ve always enjoyed being in a position where I can hit with guys on base because I’ve done it my whole career."

Said Francona, "I don’t think we need to take credit for him swinging the bat well. He’s been a good hitter for a lot of years."

You want to talk consistency? A year ago, with one game remaining before the All-Star break, Lowell was batting .301 with 13 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games. In 85 games this season, those happen to be almost his exact totals (.297, 13, 57). That would hardly be surprising were it not for the fact that Lowell had his hip injury in between, a problem that effectively sidelined him for the second half of last season and has significantly limited his mobility this season.

At the moment, we all know that consistent run production, particularly against good pitching, appears to be one of the Sox’ greatest flaws. This season, when Lowell knocks in at least one run, the Red Sox are 25-8. During his Sox career, the team is 137-57 when he has at least one RBI. Two years ago, before the hip injury, Lowell knocked in a career-best 120 runs, and he was well on his way to another good season when the hip problem derailed his season.

Since that time, the Red Sox have had to deal with the reality of a 35-year-old third baseman with a bad hip. They pursued Mark Teixeira. They traded for LaRoche and Martinez. Lowell was affected by those maneuvers more than perhaps any other Sox player, especially considering his performance when healthy. If his ego has been bruised along the way, it is certainly understandable. As any manager will tell you -- Francona especially -- you would much rather have a player who wants to be on the field more than one who would prefer to be on the field less.

Clearly, Lowell would like to play more. His bat is making a good argument for him. Francona has been loyal to all of his players over the years, but independent of Youkilis’s suspension, the manager might soon be faced with a particularly difficult decision.

The Sox value Varitek behind the plate. They seem to regard Kotchman largely as a reserve. If Martinez is at first and Youkilis is at third, that leaves two players for one spot -- Lowell and Ortiz -- and the productivity of the former currently outweighs the performance of the latter. If the Red Sox were to get to the playoffs, when the schedule is spotted with days off, one can only wonder if Francona would be forced choose between two players who have meant a great deal to his team in recent years.

Meanwhile, despite his displeasure, Lowell is coming off the bench to hit two home runs in a game, something no Sox player had done since Joe Foy in 1967.

"Yeah, how about that?" Francona said of Lowell’s performance. "I do think that shows a lot of professionalism. That’s not an easy thing to do."

Said a sarcastic Lowell, "Is that a sign that they can sit me more?"

On the contrary.

After all, at the moment, the best argument he is making is with his bat.

Dave Magadan spent the weekend, like you, witnessing the occurrences in New York. But as the losses mounted, there was at least one thing Magadan did not lose.

Unlike a hitter, who only has to be concerned with his own performance at the plate, hitting coach Dave Magadan has an entire lineup of players to worry about, including David Ortiz. (Bill Greene / Globe Staff Photo)

His sense of humor.

"Are you calling to talk about [President Obama's] health care plan?" the Red Sox hitting coach joked when reached by phone yesterday.

Today, the Red Sox are winners again, finally, following last night's 6-5 victory over the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. The Sox scored two runs in the first inning against Tigers starter Edwin Jackson, two more in the second, and one each in the fifth and seventh. Overall, the Red Sox had as many hits (12) as they did over a stretch of 28 innings against the Yankees, bringing at least a temporary reprieve from a six-game stretch against New York and Tampa Bay during which the Red Sox went 0-6 while batting .174 and scoring a mere 14 runs.

Magadan suffered last week, as any major league coach would have. He knows too much about hitting not to have. Magadan batted .288 during a major league career that covered parts of 16 seasons, finishing third in the National League batting race with a .328 average for the 1990 New York Mets. He does not need anyone to explain to him just how miserable last week was for the Red Sox because his body did that for him.

"Oh, gosh. Ask me how much sleep I've gotten," Magadan said. "It's tough. It's so much different than when you're a player. Any hitting coach will tell you that, as a player, you're just worried about yourself. As a hitting coach, I'm worried about everyone. That game in Baltimore when we scored 18 runs [on Aug. 2], everything was good, right? But David [Ortiz] went 0 for 5 and so I'm trying to help him."

Of course, as Bill Parcells taught us and no matter what anybody else suggests, it's all about the groceries. You simply cannot make an extravagant meal without the necessary ingredients. The Red Sox suddenly seem to have a number of players in their lineup who are aging or underperforming, and there is only so much any coach can do. That is probably truer in baseball than in any other of the four major team sports, largely because of the division of labor.

Joe Kerrigan? He had a reputation here as a good pitching coach. In 1997, under Kerrigan's watch and the year before Pedro Martinez joined the Boston staff, the Red Sox finished 12th among the 14 American League clubs in ERA. In Martinez's first two seasons, the Sox jumped to second, then first. The Sox made a similar offensive jump from 2000 to 2002 after making Manny Ramirez the centerpiece of their lineup. During that span, the Sox went from 12th in the league in runs scored to seventh, then second. In each of the three seasons after that, the Sox ranked first.

During that stretch, the Sox changed hitting coaches from Jim Rice (in 2000), to Rick Down (in 2001), to Dwight Evans (in 2002), to Ron Jackson (2003-2006). Magadan is now in his third season. Up until this year the production generally has remained steady, offering further evidence that the drop in production (the Sox rank fifth in the AL in runs scored) has far more to do with the ingredients -- after all, Ramirez is gone now -- than it does with the chef.

Magadan knows what his job is. He is part researcher, part psychologist, part tactician. No one doubts his knowledge or his work ethic, and Magadan has merely continued the methods he always has employed.

"I'd like to think so," he said. "You certainly try to do the things you've done all year. You prepare the guys and you educate them on who's pitching that night. You give them extra [batting practice] and you give them the positive reinforcement they need. ... I don't underestimate any part of my job because you never know when you say something and, a month later, a player might come back and say, 'Hey, that really hit home,' and I won't even remember saying it. I think we have an advance scouting department that's second to none and that makes my job easier."

And then, lest anyone forget, the pitchers have something to say about the outcome, too.

Last week, against the Rays and Yankees, the Red Sox faced a succession of power arms: Matt Garza and David Price in Tampa; Joba Chamberlain, A.J., Burnett and CC Sabathia in New York. Andy Pettitte, who shut them down on Sunday, has a 1.87 ERA in his last five starts. All of that seemed caused for alarm entering last night's game, though maybe we all missed the far more relevant point: Jackson entered the game with a 5.44 ERA in his career against Boston with an 0-4 record and 7.14 ERA at Fenway Park.

Before the end of the season, the obvious concern is that the Sox will see as many good pitchers as bad ones, particularly in the American League East. Justin Verlander of the Tigers awaits them on Thursday. The Sox still have six more games with the Yankees, six more with the Rays, nine more with the Toronto Blue Jays. That means as many as three more meetings with Roy Halladay. They could see Mark Buehrle later this month and Zack Greinke in September, and, thanks to last week, now have virtually no margin for error.

"We have expectations for our team that it really doesn't matter who's pitching," Magadan said when asked if opposing pitchers had a lot to do with the Sox' difficulties. "I don't want to have a team that's going to feast on a No. 5 starter. If we're going to go deep into the postseason, then there are pitchers our team needs to succeed against.''

After all, that was something the Sox learned last October.

NEW YORK -- Lest anyone forget, the Yankees finished six games behind the Red Sox last season. New York is now 6½ games in front. The pendulum has swung, or, as former Sox pitcher Dennis Eckersley once noted, the worm has turned.

Questions, questions, questions: Right now, the Red Sox have a million of `em. A week that began with concerns about the Boston rotation ended with questions about the Boston bullpen, not to mention a lineup that suddenly looks softer than a slice of New York-style cheesecake. From May 9 through Aug. 9, a span covering three months and precisely 80 games, the Red Sox rank eighth in the American League in runs scored behind, among others, the Oakland Athletics. The Sox haven’t consistently hit for a while now -- not really, anyway -- and the bullpen that was once the strength of the team is now faltering at critical times. Until that unforgettable June 30 meltdown at Baltimore, the Red Sox had lost just one game all season when leading after six innings. Beginning with that affair, they have now lost four more. In the recently completed six-game segment through Tampa Bay and New York, the Sox twice blew leads in the eighth.

"We have a long part of our season left," Red Sox catcher and captain Jason Varitek said following last night’s late-inning meltdown that produced a 5-2 loss to the Yankees. "We have too good of character on this team [to continue falling apart]."

No argument there.

The question is whether the Sox have enough talent.

Let’s be honest, folks. The Red Sox have a long way to go and they appear to be heading in the wrong direction at supersonic speed. From the end of last season until now, New York has blown right past them. For all of the talk about the depth of the Red Sox pitching entering this season -- and the Sox still have good depth long term -- the Yankees will return next year with a group built around CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and the ageless Mariano Rivera. Matched against a Boston lineup that suddenly seems to be aging at a tenfold rate, that looks like a mismatch. It was certainly a mismatch over the weekend, and it leaves Red Sox pitchers at an enormous disadvantage given a Yankees lineup that includes Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Robinson Cano, among others. Rodriguez has missed 30 games this season and, even in the wake of early-season hip surgery, still has as many home runs (21) as anyone on the Red Sox. For that matter, so does Johnny Damon.

And before anyone suggests that Damon has benefited solely from the laughable right field at Yankee Stadium, let’s remember that his game-tying home run last night was a laser that landed in the Yankees bullpen, just to the right of the 385-foot mark. Even fireballing young righthander Daniel Bard couldn’t get his fastball by Damon. Over the last three years of a contract during which Red Sox officials believed Damon would be grossly overpaid, Damon has more hits (424 to 311), runs scored (267 to 222), home runs (50 to 42) and RBIs (199 to 171) than J.D. Drew, who makes an average of $1 million more per season (edge Drew, $14 million to $13 million) and is signed for two more years. Damon, by the way, will be a free agent in the fall.

Oh, and did we mention that the Red Sox rank 13th among the 14 American League teams in on-base percentage from the leadoff spot since Damon departed? Damon might not be hitting leadoff for the Yankees anymore -- he bats second -- but he certainly could do it for the Red Sox.

Fine, so the Yankees bought a sizable chunk of their team. What else is new? No one in Boston was crying about that last year or in 2007, 2005, or 2004. This particular whine seems to come up only when the Sox lose. Going forward, the greatest concern about the competition between the Sox and Yankees is the matchup between Red Sox hitters and Yankees pitchers, largely because the Red Sox don’t seem to have a lot of options. The free-agent market is thin. The farm system is suspiciously devoid of impact hitters. The only way the Red Sox are going to get more bats is through trade, and that means giving up significant pitching talent at the majors or minors.

Think about it: Jason Bay is a free agent and Jason Varitek will be 38 next spring. Mike Lowell is 35 and still dealing with effects of hip surgery. The Sox have major problems at shortstop (good luck filling that one), and Drew and David Ortiz -- no spring chickens they -- are having disappointing years. Even with the addition of Victor Martinez, the Sox could have as many as five spots in the lineup in need of potential upgrading come November.

Now does everyone understand why the Sox should have thrown everything they had at Teixeira last winter?

Months ago, before this season even began, we all knew that offense could be a potential problem for this team. It’s one thing to score runs against the Baltimore Orioles of the world; it’s another thing entirely to score them against teams like Tampa Bay, New York or even Toronto. Including the Sox, all of those teams rank in the top eight in the AL in pitching. And though the Yankees rank precisely eighth, New York has a 3.78 ERA during the aforementioned three-month sample that began May 10. That number ranks first in the league during that span.

Admittedly, as both Varitek and Dustin Pedroia said last night, there is still a lot of baseball to be played this season. The Red Sox have 52 games remaining, which essentially qualifies as one-third of their season. The problem is that the Red Sox are going to see a lot more good pitching, beginning with Edwin Jackson tonight in the opener of a four-game series against the Detroit Tigers. On Thursday, the Sox will oppose Justin Verlander. Between now and the end of the season, the Sox also will have 21 more games against the Yankees (six), Jays (nine) and Rays (six), which means more of Sabathia and Burnett, Matt Garza, David Price, and Roy Halladay, not to mention Chamberlain, James Shields, and others.

And for what it’s worth, the challenge isn’t going to get any easier next year, either.

NEW YORK -- This is when the manager of the Red Sox truly earns his money, when Terry Francona typically is at his best. His team and its season are unraveling, and Francona has been around long enough to know that there is really only one thing he can do.

Wait.

“If I go and tell ‘em to hit -- I think they’re already trying to do that,’’ Francona said early last night following a 5-0 loss to the New York Yankees that pushed the Sox 5 1/2 games out of first place in the American League East. “The energy level is there. We’ve just been putting up zeroes for a lot of innings now. I think sometimes you balance that. If I thought the effort was terrible I’d say something, but I don’t think that’s the case.’’

Screaming fits? Broken chairs? Turned-over tables? That is not Francona’s style and it never will be. It is one of the primary reasons he has lasted this long in Boston at all. Until Francona came along, the Red Sox had gone roughly 60 years without a manager who survived at least five full seasons. Francona did that while winning two World Series and making four playoff appearances, the kind of run that has made him the most successful manager in Red Sox history.

Yesterday, in particular, the manager had quite a day. Francona’s afternoon began with him attending the midday press conference conducted by David Ortiz. (Francona stood just off to Ortiz’s right and was the only uniformed member of the organization in attendance.) He shook Ortiz’s hand when the player concluded his remarks. Once the game started, Francona rushed out to the field to protect Dustin Pedroia when the player argued about a disputed foul tip. Then Francona was back on the field again after Ramon Ramirez was ejected by home plate umpire Jim Joyce, who believed that Ramirez deliberately threw at Alex Rodriguez.

After all of that, Francona fielded questions following another frustrating defeat, people wanting to know everything from the Sox’ overall level of concern to whether Francona regretted putting Kevin Youkilis in left field.

“If there’s a criticism about Youkilis playing in left field, it certainly needs to be directed at me, not him,’’ Francona said following a day on which Youkilis was involved in a pair of misplays (though neither led to a run). “He’s doing something to try to help us win games.’’

So is the manager. He’s trying to prevent any level of panic. He’s trying to keep his players upbeat and focused. He’s trying to take as much pressure off them as possible. Anyone who believes it is a manager’s responsibility to undress his troops probably does not understand baseball very well and certainly does not understand Terry Jon Francona.

Of course, this is precisely how it is supposed to work. Up until the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, former Sox skippers were all but strewn about the Mass Pike like the carcasses of broken-down cars. From Darrell Johnson to Grady Little, the job and the pressure got to them all. Then came general manager Theo Epstein, who hired Francona in the fall of 2003. Six years later, Epstein still has hired just one manager during his career -- Francona’s predecessor, Little, was hired before Epstein became GM -- and the Red Sox have unprecedented stability in the manager’s office. In Boston, when he climbs the ramps at Fenway Park to visit the front office, the manager is no longer a dead man walking to his execution; rather, he is a fully invested partner about to sit in on a planning meeting.

The manager isn’t going anywhere, folks. This year, remember, Francona is in the first year of a three-year, $12 million contract extension that runs through 2011 and contains a pair of club options through 2013. Francona didn’t panic when the Red Sox fell behind the Yankees, 3-0, in the 2004 American League Championship Series, and he didn’t panic when the Sox fell behind the Cleveland Indians, 3-1, in the 2007 ALCS. While baseball fans and pundits clamored for the Sox to alter their pitching rotation and shake up their lineup, Francona generally held steady. Largely because Francona was fully willing to accept defeat, the Sox came back to win both times.

His general philosophy: If you have to start doing desperate things to in an attempt to affect the outcome, it usually means you’re not good enough.

Three years ago, during a 2006 season that marks the only year of Francona’s Red Sox career in which the team failed to make the playoffs, the skipper of the Red Sox did what might have been his best managing job. The Red Sox were in the midst of a long August series against the Yankees, just like this team, when the wheels started to fall off. Just prior to the Yankees series, reliever Mike Timlin, in an attempt to defend Red Sox pitchers, effectively criticized the Boston offense. During the Yankees series, pitcher David Wells threw his hands up in disgust when Keith Foulke blew a save. Manny Ramirez went into Operation Shutdown and the Sox went into a flat spin, their season consumed by injury, ineptitude and frustration en route to a third-place finish.

Immediately after the Yankees swept the Sox in a five-game series, the Sox traveled out west. Prior to the road trip opener, the manager called a team meeting. Francona told his players that it was perfectly acceptable to lose so long as they continued to give effort, but that it was entirely unacceptable for them to lose with no dignity. The Sox continued their downward trend and finished 86-76, but the shenanigans stopped.

Now, three years later, the Red Sox are losing again. Incredibly, despite the current feeling around this team, they are currently a playoff team. The manager of the Sox is as frustrated as anyone else, but Francona refuses to point fingers, blow his top, lose his dignity. There is, after all, still a great deal of baseball to played.

Between now and the end of the regular season, Francona intends to learn the same thing he set out to discover when the season began in April.

He just wants to see if the Red Sox are good enough.

NEW YORK -- There is a difference between what we know and what we can prove, and so it is now with David Americo Ortiz. The players union has established its reasonable doubt. Our national pastime has suffered irreparable damage. And those of us on the outside do not know who or what to believe or trust in a web-like entanglement of legalities and constitutional rights.

And so, as Ortiz sat alongside soon-to-be union chief Michael Weiner at Yankee Stadium today, here is the only conclusion that some of us could come to: We cannot pick and choose anymore. We cannot decide which players used steroids and which did not, independent of test results and government lists. We have no choice but to indict all major league players or to set them all free, much to the chagrin of those of us who believe that everything should be decided on a case-by-case basis.

"It's a fair question," Weiner said a short time ago when asked why the union previously had not been so forthright with regard to the particulars of survey testing conducted in 2003.

"We decided that the cumulative effect of these leaks, with this last one, required us to try to set the record straight about 2003 testing. Almost all of what I said today was available in letters that we sent to Congress and has otherwise been publicly available, but it didn't seem to affect the way the stories were being reported. And we thought it was incumbent upon us to protect all the players in the union, those who have previously been tarred with this and any other players who are allegedly on the list, to set the record straight. So it really was the cumulative effect of this latest story and these latest leaks."

And so what is the record, at least that one defined to be "straight" from the perspective of the union? That there were 96 players who turned up positive during the 2003 testing, but that the current infamous government "list" of players contains 104 names. That the union disputed 13 of the 96 positives, and that Major League Baseball did not quibble over those 13 because there was no need. Once MLB got the 83 positive tests needed to reach the 5 percent required to implement a testing program -- think of it as a pass-fail exam -- the game's officials really did not care whether they advanced with a D- or a B+. Baseball had its testing program and the union had its way to protect the players who turned up positive.

Oh, and did we mention that Weiner introduced the possibility of some players being named twice on the list of 83 for having failed multiple tests? With that variable in play, there could actually be 82 players who tested positive in 2003. Or maybe 81. Or maybe 45.

For Ortiz and for anyone else who has been sucked into the eye this steroid storm, all of this allows for plausible deniability. Ortiz is a particularly warm, engaging, and likeable man who always has seemed extremely credible to us. He said today, in no uncertain terms, that he has never bought or used steroids. He admitted that he was "careless" with regard to using "supplements and vitamins." He apologized to fans, teammates, and his manager, the last of whom stood nearby in a visible show of support. If you didn't understand why players like Terry Francona, you certainly should now.

Now the question that every honest fan should ask himself or herself: Do you believe Ortiz because you want to, or do you truly believe he is telling the truth? There is a very big difference. You cannot condemn Roger Clemens and liberate Ortiz, at least not solely based on emotion. You need more evidence than that. This story isn't about Ortiz and the Red Sox so much as it about baseball and a steroids scandal that got wildly out of control, regardless of whether the actual number of positive tests constituted 5 percent or 85 percent of baseball's "tarred" player pool.

"I'm not here to make any excuses or anything," Ortiz said. "I used a lot of supplements and vitamins. I even had companies sending me supplements and things back then, but I never buy steroids or used steroids."

If he is telling the truth, Ortiz has nothing to worry about and some of us owe him an enormous apology. If he is not, he had better hope that we do not come to learn that he tested positive for Winstrol or Stanozolol, or even the Primobolan that took down Alex Rodriguez. If that happens, any credibility Ortiz possesses will be destroyed beyond any recognition and he never will be believable again. (About anything.) Red Sox officials Larry Lucchino and Susan Goodenow were also among those present at the press conference, and the Sox issued a statement effectively supporting their player. The Sox deserve every bit of credit for that, and they retain the right to be just as miffed if it is learned that Ortiz was guilty of far more.

As for the union, let's make a few things clear: Unlike a list of predecessors that has included Marvin Miller, Gene Orza, and Don Fehr, Weiner projects as a more open, honest, decent and reasonable man. He has the interests of his constituency to protect, too. But roughly six months after leaving Rodriguez hanging out to dry, the union now is offering an argument that might have helped A-Rod's case, too. Weiner said that the union has offered assistance to every player affected by this never-ending scandal, but if you are Alex Rodriguez or Sammy Sosa or even Manny Ramirez today, no matter what you say publicly, you seemingly have some right to be very, very angry.

Meanwhile, with regard to those players who never succumbed to the temptation of performance-enhancing substances, the union sold them out a long time ago. In order to protect the guilty, the union damaged the reputations of the innocent. Like we said, we have no choice but to doubt them all at this stage, from A-Rod and Ramirez to Greg Maddux and Derek Jeter. Reasonable doubt swings both ways. In the court of public opinion, innocence does not have to be presumed.

Way back when, during the historic home run race involving Sosa and Mark McGwire and the BALCO scandal surrounded Barry Bonds, those of us with any appreciation for baseball history argued that the game had become a joke. Baseball had turned into professional wrestling. Ordinary players became megastars and megastars became superhuman, and the fact that many of us have grown irretrievably cynical is not our fault so much as it is theirs.

Today, David Ortiz often looked and sounded as if he were telling the truth. Even those of us who are cynics truly hope he was. But given how many players have already lied to us over such a long period of time -- and the indisputable extent to which baseball's problems existed -- our skepticism is no less egregious than his carelessness.

With all due respect to Ortiz and everyone else, the doubt doesn't get erased because someone said some things and answered some questions before some television cameras and notepads in an increasingly image-conscious world.

At this stage, after all, we know way too much.

NEW YORK -- Two months ago, had these same teams played a similar game, Jason Varitek never would have made the walk across the clubhouse, as he did this morning, virtually his entire body wrapped in ice. Varitek never would have risen from his seat, the clock on the clubhouse wall reading precisely 1:02 a.m., to console a young man who had just surrendered a game-winning home run in the 15th inning of a 2-0 loss.

Back then, after all, the Red Sox would have won this game because the New York Yankees simply did not have the bullpen to match up with Boston’s vaunted relief corps.

But the Yankees do now.

"I just don’t want him to hang his head,’’ Varitek said later of Junichi Tazawa, the 23-year-old who made his major league debut as the Red Sox’ sixth and final reliever in last night’s draining loss to the Yankees. "His stuff’s too good and he’s too good for that to happen."

So Varitek ambled over to a seemingly catatonic Tazawa, who sat in a chair before his locker in a spacious and largely vacant clubhouse at the new Yankee Stadium. The catcher crouched and looked Tazawa squarely in the eyes, the young man nodding as the 37-year-old captain of the Red Sox spoke. And with his left arm wrapped so thoroughly in ice and an ace bandage that he might as well have been wearing a catcher’s mitt, Varitek gave Tazawa a soft, reassuring tap on the head.

In the end, the Red Sox now trail the Yankees by 4½ games with 55 games remaining on the Boston schedule entering today -- the Yankees have 54 games left -- and any Boston advantage in this year’s matchup seems to have washed away. That 8-0 record suddenly does not seem to mean much anymore. Entering this season, the one most glaring advantage the Red Sox had over the Yankees was their pitching, specifically in the bullpen, where Boston seemed to have as many capable arms as New York had questions. Now here we are, more than four months later, and the Yankees have sufficiently caught up that they could match the Red Sox, pitch for pitch, through 14 innings of a game that stayed scoreless.

Last night, after seven scoreless innings from Josh Beckett and before the debut Tazawa, Red Sox relievers pitched six scoreless innings and allowed one hit -- an infield single by Alex Rodriguez against Daniel Bard in the bottom of the ninth. The Red Sox still lost. The biggest reason was that the once-suspect Yankees bullpen neutralized Red Sox relievers (and then some) by finishing the night with 7 1/3 scoreless innings, meaning that the Yankees bullpen even nosed out Beckett, the ace of the Boston staff.

For every pitched the Red Sox send to the mound now, the Yankees seem to have an answer.

"It was a tough night offensively," conceded Sox manager Terry Francona. "It was a tough night for them, too."

Today, as we take stock of the Red Sox and Yankees as they effectively enter the final third of the baseball season, there is an important observation to make: the Red Sox don’t have any real advantages anymore. Through June 11, when these teams played their last game before the start of this series, Red Sox relievers had a dominating 2.88 ERA that made them the most formidable group in baseball; the Yankees, by contrast, had a bullpen ERA of 4.69. Head-to-head, Boston relievers had outpitched their New York counterparts by almost two runs per game -- a 3-0 record and 3.04 ERA for the Sox, an 0-2 record and 5.10 ERA for the Yanks -- giving the Sox an enormous edge in any reasonably competitive game entering the final three innings.

But now, as we enter what amount to the final three innings of this season, the numbers tell a different story. Since June 11, Yankees relievers are 11-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 154 2/3 innings. Opponents are batting .212 against them. Meanwhile, Red Sox relievers are 8-7 with a 3.80 ERA while holding opponents to a batting average of .249 -- impressive statistics, to be sure, but ones that no longer provide the Sox the kind of edge they need to defeat a Yankees club capable of matching Boston in every other area, too.

Entering this season, of course, much was made of Boston’s pitching depth and of the Sox' productive player development system, particularly as it pertained to New York. As it turned out, things have broken far better for the Yankees than anyone ever could have imagined. While righthander Phil Hughes has taken to the Yankees bullpen the way that Jonathan Papelbon did for the Sox in 2005 -- Hughes has a 1.47 ERA as a reliever -- Alfredo Aceves has turned into New York’s version of Hideki Okajima. Aceves last night pitched three innings, more than any other reliever in this game, while strikeout out three and allowing just one hit. During that same length of time, from the 10th through the 12th, the Red Sox burned three relievers just to keep up.

Ultimately, that led to the major league debut of Tazawa, who might as well have spent last summer pitching in the Boston Park League. One minute Tazawa is pitching for a semipro outfit in Japan, the next he’s facing A-Rod with two outs and a man on first in the bottom of the 15th inning of a scoreless game. The last Red Sox pitcher to make that kind of meteoric ascension was probably Craig Hansen, who went from the 2005 draft to the big leagues in roughly two months. Incredibly, that Red Sox team might have been more desperate than this one.

Today, thanks to their second extra-long affair in four days, the Boston bullpen looks cooked again thanks to another exhaustive effort gone fruitless. The worst part is that the Sox may need their relievers more than the Yankees do. While Boston sends Clay Buchholz to the mound, New York answers with lefty CC Sabathia, the 6-foot-7 ox who has pitched more innings than any starter in baseball since the start of the 2007 season. In the wake of last night’s marathon, the Yankees can lean on Sabathia heavily today to protect a relief corps that could probably use a rest.

Still, ask yourself this:

Even if Sabathia leaves the game early, will the Red Sox have the advantage over these Yankees that Boston once did?

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Remember that these Red Sox were built on pitching, on a rotation so long it seemed to run up and down Interstate 95, on a bullpen so deep it rivaled the Quechee Gorge. The rotation is much shorter now, the bullpen more shallow. And as the playoff races begin to bubble, the Red Sox look disturbingly vulnerable.

Brad Penny struggled Wednesday night in Tampa. (Reuters)

Be afraid, Sox followers. Be very, very afraid. With last night’s 6-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, the Red Sox are 7-10 in their last 17 games. Not one of those victories has come against a team with a winning record. (Five against Baltimore, one against Oakland, one against Toronto.) The Sox don’t have the lineup they once did and they don’t have the necessary pitching to make up for that - at least 60 percent of the time - and there is now sufficient reason to worry.

How did this happen?

Where did all that pitching go?

"It’s a long year," said manager Terry Francona. "The way the success of your season can get interrupted is by not having enough pitching. People accused us - and I don’t know if accused is the right word - but they accused us of having too much pitching. I don’t think we ever felt that way."

If they did then, they certainly do not now. During the final innings of last night’s game, the Sox announced they had settled on a minor league deal with righthander Paul Byrd, who hasn’t pitched for anyone, anywhere, since October. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Red Sox clearly are desperate.

In many ways, last night’s loss was a worst-case scenario. Their bullpen depleted following Tuesday’s epic 13-inning loss, the Sox summoned Billy Traber from Triple A in the event they needed to take a bullet. They ended up being just competitive enough that Francona was inspired to use both Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima for a second straight night (albeit conservatively) despite some desire to stay away from them entirely, particularly with the reeling John Smoltz due to face the Yankees’ collection of lefthanded hitters tonight at the new driving range in the Bronx.

Barring a victory, the best case for the Sox would have been a 7-1 defeat in which Brad Penny gave the Sox six innings and Traber gave them two. Instead, the Sox stayed sufficiently close to merely compound their woes.

"That’s the concern we had going into tonight’s game - that we’d be close enough and that we’d be within striking distance [but still lose]," Francona said. "That’s tough [to manage]. It is difficult."

All of this takes us back to the trading deadline, when the Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez (2 for 4 with a double and homer last night) from the Cleveland Indians to boost a sagging offense. According to one baseball source, the Sox had serious discussions with the Indians for both Martinez and starter Cliff Lee, at least until Cleveland wisely broke the tandem apart and effectively sold them off as condos. The point is that the Red Sox wanted a hitter and a pitcher, or, more importantly, they felt they needed both. In the upper corners of Fenway Park, the inhabitants know this team has holes.

The good news? Tim Wakefield threw a side session yesterday and will take part in another tomorrow, with a simulated game scheduled Monday. If all goes well, he could be back in the Boston rotation by the end of next week. Daisuke Matsuzaka could be back to help in September. Martinez has added significant depth to a Boston lineup that entered last night ranked a mediocre seventh in the American League in runs since the middle of May.

Still, even with Martinez, the Red Sox do not have the kind of offense to beat good teams by scores like 7-6, particularly on the road, where they will continue to spend the majority of their time through Aug. 20. And that was true even before Jason Bay left last night’s game with continued tightness in his hamstring.

"He said he was fine to stay in the game, but if he said something, something is bothering him," said Francona. "He’s a tough kid."

As for the Sox as a whole, the question now is whether they can stay in the game entering (and exiting) New York. Suddenly, this is starting to feel a good deal like 2006. The Sox were 1 1/2 games out of first place that season entering a five-game series against the Yankees in mid-August; by the end of it, they were 6 1/2 back and in a precipitous fall. That was the last time the Sox missed the playoffs, the only time during Theo Epstein’s tenure as general manager that there was no real fall baseball in New England.

Obviously, there is still a good deal of baseball to be played. With 56 games remaining, the Sox still have slightly more than one-third of the season to go. But if the Sox do not start getting better performances soon from Penny, Smoltz, and Clay Buchholz, they may have little choice but to rely on youngsters such as Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa during the most grueling part of the schedule. The Sox will have exhausted all that depth, leaving them in a rather precarious position.

And they will be, indisputably, in the deep stuff where no one wants to be.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- And on and on it goes, the story nobody really wants to talk about and everyone wants to end. The Red Sox have just begun a pivotal stretch of games, the David Ortiz saga burdening them like a ball and chain, and everyone from Santo Domingo to St. Petersburg feels the same way.

Said manager Terry Francona when asked about Ortiz, "I think we’d all like to . . ."

"Move on?" it was asked.

"Well . . . yeah," the skipper said prior to last night’s game between the Sox and Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.

Wouldn’t we all.

Yet here we are, five days after it was reported that Ortiz was among the 104 players who tested positive for banned substances during baseball’s provisional survey in 2003, and we don’t know a blasted thing more. Ortiz has yet to offer his side of the story.

Prior to last night’s game, more than one Sox official indicated that Ortiz might be going through the legal process to obtain information about his own test results, something Francona alluded to in vague terms during his customary pregame briefing with reporters.

"This is not David right now [holding things up]," Francona said. "We’re waiting. We’re all on hold."

Here are the questions we all need to ask: Will anything short of a full admission from Ortiz be enough to satisfy those of us who generally are cursed with cynicism? Or is he simply doomed, regardless of what happened, because there are certain things we need to hear?

We all know the problem baseball has encountered in recent years. The game got so wildly out of control that everyone’s credibility was affected. That means everyone. Rightly or wrongly, the game’s biggest stars of the last 10-15 years will have their accomplishments called into question because MLB turned into WWE. Guilt became a presumption. That is not the fault of those of us on the outside. Players, owners, executives, and union officials did this to themselves.

Ortiz may not like that reality at the moment, particularly given his place in the game. For all of the players who have been sucked into the eye of the steroid storm, he is the first one universally liked by fans, teammates, opponents, and media. (And he still is.) That is the part of this story that makes it so difficult. Just because of his popularity, Ortiz cannot be treated any differently than Roger Clemens, who, to the best of anyone’s knowledge, has never failed a drug test.

And yet, because Red Sox fans have entirely different emotions about Clemens than they do about Ortiz, rational judgment goes out the window. Clemens is a scoundrel and Ortiz is an innocent victim. How can that be? How can one of Ortiz’s very best friends in the game, Torii Hunter, express disappointment and suggest that Ortiz’s accomplishments will be tainted, but Red Sox fans cannot?

For those of us on the outside, at what point does denial become an accepted line of defense?

Understandably, Ortiz seems like a very frustrated man right now. Over the last seven seasons, he has given a great deal to the Red Sox and the New England community. Prior to last night’s game, Ortiz tactfully waved off reporters and went about the business of preparing for the game. He is not the kind to kick and scream and point fingers.

The Red Sox need to put this issue behind them, as a team, and they certainly do not need to drag it into New York this week, though that seems inevitable.

As long as Ortiz is in a Boston uniform, it will not go away. The first time he steps to the plate tomorrow night in New York, he will get the kind of reception that Alex Rodriguez received in Boston this year.

All we can hope for, at this stage, is that Ortiz does not adopt Rodriguez’s approach when it came time to answer questions and fill in the blanks. We don’t need to know merely what Ortiz tested positive for and when he used it. We need to know what else he has taken, if anything, and we need to know why.

We have yet to hear a single player stand up and tell us the complete truth, that the game was out of control, that players felt the need to keep up, that things became twisted and out of control. That the line between right and wrong did not grow fuzzy - it disappeared entirely - and the game became one muddied mass.

That they were all wrong.

When Sports Illustrated first reported earlier this year that Rodriguez was on the list of 104, the magazine also reported that he tested positive for Primobolan and testosterone. The point is that whoever leaked Ortiz’s name may very well know the substance in question, too. Before he speaks, that is something Ortiz must consider. He must also consider the possibility that there is more evidence against him, somewhere, and that he can either control the release of that information or leave it up to fate.

Last week, when news of Ortiz’s failed test leaked, he said he was surprised. Within 48 hours, the Globe’s John Powers authored a story stating that all players who tested positive in 2003 were notified of that fact by the Major League Baseball Players Association. Many of us also believe that the union warned its members of upcoming drug tests, adding yet another level of deceit and making baseball’s steroids scandal look like a full-blown conspiracy.

Now, years after the damage was done, the game has taken significant steps to clean itself up.

Still, we’re waiting for someone to fully come clean.

Say goodbye to the Orioles, to the Royals, to the Nationals and to the A’s. The baseball season begins in earnest tonight in steamy St. Petersburg, Fla., where the Red Sox will open a two-game miniseries against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. After that, it’s on to the Bronx for four games against the first-place Yankees, out of the juicebox and into the sweatbox.

Time is dwindling.

Do you know where your Red Sox are?

A team in apparent disarray as recently as last week, the Red Sox are on a four-game winning streak as they enter the most critical week of their season. Though the Sox have slightly more than one-third of their season remaining, they will play the Rays (eight games) and the Yankees (10) a combined 18 times between now and Sept. 27. Of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay, at least one of those clubs will be absent from the postseason come October, and there is the ever-increasing possibility that two of those teams will be without a seat when the music stops.

Think of it: While the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will be beating up on one another, the overachieving Texas Rangers (3 games behind the Sox in the wild-card race) will be frolicking about in the far less demanding American League West. From here on out, the Red Sox need to win, and they need to win against good competition.

As for this week, in particular, Boston’s pitching lines up about as well as it could have. With Jon Lester scheduled to pitch the bookend affairs against the Rays (tonight) and Yankees (Sunday), the Sox will get three starts combined from Lester and Josh Beckett. (Four would have been impossible because the Sox never work their starters on short rest.) The remaining three will go to, in order, Brad Penny (tomorrow night), John Smoltz (Thursday), and Clay Buchholz (Saturday), and there is sufficient reason to worry about each based on the particular matchup.

Lest anyone forget, Penny was the starter in a 5-3 Tampa win May 3, when the Rays stole six bases against him, eight overall. Playing the role of Usain Bolt, Carl Crawford alone swiped a half-dozen. Base runners are a mind-bending 18 of 19 in steal attempts against Penny, a fact Tampa is almost certain to exploit. The Rays currently lead the major leagues (by far) with 143 steals, and they have stolen more bases against the Red Sox (22 in 25 attempts) than they have against anyone else.

And so, tomorrow, the team with the most stolen bases in baseball (the Rays) will face the team that has allowed the most steals (the Red Sox, 103) with a man on the mound (Penny) who will be all but waving a green flag.

Gentlemen, start your engines.

As for Smoltz and Buchholz, they will be paired against their own form of Kryptonite, specifically in the form of lefthanded power. For all the debate and discussion about what has ailed Smoltz, the numbers tell a gruesome story. Lefthanded batters are hitting an eye-popping .397 against him with a .654 slugging percentage and 1.094 OPS, which doesn’t inspire confidence heading into Thursday night. Given the way balls have been flying out of Yankee Stadium this season -- especially to right field -- one can only wonder if Smoltz is running into a buzzsaw.

Consider: Of all the teams in baseball this season, the Yankees have the highest slugging percentage against righthanded pitching (.463). The only team with more homers against righthanders than the Yankees (108) is the Rangers (113), and we all saw how the Rangers fared against Smoltz at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington July 20. The Rangers homered three times in a five-run sixth inning -- two came from lefthanded batters -- en route to a 6-3 win.

The good news, thankfully, is that Beckett will take the mound before Buchholz does, which should allow manager Terry Francona some much-needed rest for his bullpen. Though Buchholz has not allowed a home run to a lefthanded batter, lefties have hit .366 against him. New York is likely to run everyone from Hideki Matsui and Mark Teixeira to Melky Cabrera and Jorge Posada at the Red Sox, and we haven’t even gotten to Johnny Damon, who has a team-leading four homers against the Sox this season. (Teixeira has three and Robinson Cano has two.)

What this all means, in the end, is that unless the Sox win all three games started by Lester or Beckett, they will need to win at least one behind Penny, Smoltz, or Buchholz to go 3-3 on the final six games of a trip that began in Baltimore Friday. Sooner or later, particularly amid the continued absence of Tim Wakefield and, to a lesser extent, Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox will need someone to step up and take the pressure off their top two starters, especially at a time of year when the consequences become greater.

Truth be told, for the last seven weeks, the Red Sox have had one of the easiest schedules in baseball. During a 35-game stretch that began June 23, the Sox went 20-15 overall while playing 23 times against the Nationals, Orioles, A’s, and Royals. The Sox lost ground to both the Yankees (25-11) and the Rays (21-14). Now the teams are scheduled to go head to head in the wake of the trading deadline, which might as well serve as the starting line for the race taking place in the fiercest division in baseball.

Today, the Sox are essentially even with New York and six games ahead of Tampa.

From here on out, may the best team win.

Statistically speaking, based solely on run differential, the best three teams in baseball reside in the American League East. At least one of them will not make the playoffs. Today, the Red Sox took a major step in ensuring that they will not be the odd team out.

And so, on a deadline day in which the Sox swapped Adam LaRoche for Casey Kotchman while adding Victor Martinez for a package of three players (Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Bryan Price), the other good news was this: The Tampa Bay Rays did nothing and the New York Yankees added only a role player. The Red Sox addressed one of their greatest weaknesses, in the short term and the long, while their primary competitors made no significant upgrades in what is sure to be a heated competition during the final two months of the season.

Depending on the precise tweaks by Sox manager Terry Francona, the Red Sox now can put together lineups that look something like this:

VS. RIGHTHANDERS
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Victor Martinez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz/Mike Lowell, DH
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Jed Lowrie, SS

Bench: Lowell (R) or Ortiz (L), Rocco Baldelli (R), Nick Green (R), Casey Kotchman (L), George Kottaras (L).

VS. LEFTHANDERS
1. Ellsbury, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Martinez, 1B
4. Youkilis, 3B
5. Bay, LF
6. Lowell/Ortiz, DH
7. Baldelli, RF
8. Varitek, C
9. Lowrie, SS

Bench: Lowell (R) or Ortiz (L), Drew (L), Green (R), Kotchman (L), Kottaras (L).

(Note: Kottaras could end getting squeezed off the roster if and when the Sox add a 12th pitcher.)

Take a good look at those lineups, 1 through 9, including the bench. There is depth and there is versatility. Kotchman can come in as a defensive replacement on those occasions when Martinez plays first. If Martinez catches, Varitek comes out of the lineup, Youkilis moves to first and Lowell plays third. If Ortiz sits, Lowell or Martinez can DH. And if the Red Sox have any kind of injury, specifically to Lowell, their depth and versatility affords them the luxury of turning to a player with everyday experience while still preserving their bench.

And then there is this: Of the players currently on Boston's 25-man roster, Bay is the only potential free agent of major concern. The others are Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Baldelli, and Green. The Sox have control over every other player either in the form of a signed contract or a club option, meaning that general manager Theo Epstein will have relatively little to do with regard to the 2010 roster.

And so next year, too, Boston will look like a championship contender.

Adrian Gonzalez? Roy Halladay? With regard to the latter, the Red Sox were never really close. As for Gonzalez, while the payoff would have been greater, the cost would have been, too. Strictly from the Red Sox' perspective, one of the beauties of today's dealings is that Epstein acquired the No. 3 or No. 4 hitter the club needed without sacrificing Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Casey Kelly, Junichi Tazawa, Michael Bowden or Lars Anderson, among others, which means the Sox will have depth next season, too. At the outset, it certainly appears as if Theo got the best of both worlds while maintaining the financial flexibility to re-sign Bay.

Admittedly, there are never any guarantees. The Red Sox still have 10 games remaining with the Yankees this season and eight with the Rays in what will be a barn-burning divisional race. In the last week or so, they have added two hitters (Martinez, Kotchman) who can help them against righthanded pitching. They have improved their bench while taking very little away from their bullpen, and they preserved the depth of starting pitching that should serve them for years to come.

Meanwhile, New York did very little and Tampa did nothing.

Come late September and beyond, we may look back on July 31 and identify it as the day that the general manager of the Red Sox officially got his team back into the playoffs.

For more than five full seasons, even when things were at their worst, the Red Sox always had Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz to fall back on. Manny and Big Papi formed the nucleus around which the new-age Red Sox were built. And now, one year after Ramirez was unceremoniously dismissed, the legacy of Ortiz is being tarnished.

Today, amid all of this, Theo Epstein remains focused on the trading deadline, on the chance to rebuild the center of the Boston lineup and provide the Red Sox with a new core to a batting order in need of a transfusion.

"Trading Manny was not an easy thing to do, but we feel we had a thorough process and made the best possible deal at the time," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein wrote in a text message earlier this week. "We are very happy with how Jason Bay has played as a member of the Red Sox."

Today, deadline day, the original intention was to focus on the post-Ramirez Red Sox, on how things have changed in the last year, if they have changed at all. Last season, before the Red Sox dealt Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the three-team trade that brought Bay to Boston, the Red Sox scored 538 runs in 109 games, an average of 4.94 runs per contest that ranked seventh in baseball, fifth-best in the American League. Since that time, in 154 games, the Red Sox have scored 827 runs in 154 games, an average of 5.37 that leads the majors. Things indeed changed once Ramirez left. They got better.

Though there obviously were other variables during that time -- Ortiz did not play last June while Ramirez was here, Mike Lowell was injured after Bay arrived -- the greater issue should not be overlooked. Sooner or later, Ramirez and Ortiz were going to fade away, leaving the Red Sox with a rather large hole in the middle of the lineup. The question all along was how Epstein would manage to fill it, over the short term and the long.

So far?

"From a run production standpoint, I don’t think there’s been a change," a longtime major league evaluator said Wednesday morning when asked about the difference in the Boston lineup with and without Ramirez. "I think Jason Bay, from a run production standpoint, gives them everything Manny did. If you look at it strictly from a baseball point of view, then you’d have to say the deal has been very good. Is there more of a fear in the pitchers [with Ramirez]? Yeah, there probably is. But you still have to make pitches whether it’s Bay or Lowell or anyone else."

Now, amid the news that Ortiz and Ramirez both turned up positive in the 2003 survey testing for performance-enhancing drugs, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the twin powers of the 2003-2008 Red Sox were an exception in every sense of the word. We will never see anything like them again. Whatever moves Epstein does (or does not) make between now and 4 p.m., there can be no comparison to the inflated production that came from Ramirez and Ortiz. All that ever matters is where the Red Sox stand in comparison to everyone else at that precise moment in time, which brings us to today, deadline day, baseball's greatest in-season opportunity to alter the future.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: Long-term, the Red Sox are in desperate need of a lineup centerpiece and they know it. That’s why they presented the biggest contract in team history last winter to then-free agent Mark Teixeira. When the Sox lost that sweepstakes, they focused on the depth of their pitching staff and on winning a different, lower-scoring brand of baseball. And depending on what happens today, the Sox may need to implement that philosophy over the longer term, too.

Getting right to the point, looking at the bigger picture, the Red Sox offense is getting old. Lowell is 35 and dealing with ongoing hip issues. With or without performance-enhancing substances, Ortiz is not the same presence anymore. J.D. Drew is having his worst year with the Red Sox. Jason Varitek will be 38 in the spring. Shortstop remains a problem. Generally speaking, the only truly reliable offensive players in the Boston lineup are Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Bay, the last of whom is eligible for free agency in the fall. (Adam LaRoche will be a free agent, too.) Lest anyone think that Bay alone is a big piece, remember that he was under contract for this season when the Red Sox pursued Teixeira. In the end, the Sox need Bay and someone else.

Thus far, to anyone’s knowledge, the best hitters available on the trade market are San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and Cleveland catcher-first baseman-designated hitter Victor Martinez. For the Red Sox, for an assortment of reasons, Gonzalez is the far better fit. First, the 27-year-old Gonzalez is younger. (Martinez is 30.) Second, he is signed through 2011. (Martinez’s current contract has a club option through 2010.) Third, the lefthanded-hitting Gonzalez has more power, something the Sox have lacked from the left side since, well, the start of last season. (Martinez does get bonus points here for being a switch-hitter.)

As for the fact that Gonzalez is signed to an extremely team-friendly contract that will pay him an average of roughly $5 million over the next two seasons, that is a bonus. The Red Sox have money, though every extra penny certainly will help in re-signing Bay. On top of it all, Gonzalez is the reigning National League Gold Glove winner at first base, meaning the Sox stand to gain in a variety of ways if they can somehow convince the Padres to deal him.

If the Sox can get Gonzalez and re-sign Bay -- this is a critical piece, too -- the middle of the Boston lineup looks to be in a good shape for at least two years, potentially longer. Manager Terry Francona could go with a 3-4-5 of the right-handed-hitting Kevin Youkilis, the left-handed-hitting Gonzalez, and the right-handed-hitting Bay, giving him the kind of balance he so frequently speaks of. If the Sox can sign Gonzalez to any type of extension, that group would be in place even longer with Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia batting before them. Epstein then could focus on shortstop and catcher, positions far easier to fill because they generally lack offensive firepower anyway.

Obviously, everything comes at a price. Because the strength of the Red Sox farm system is in the pitching, the Red Sox now are faced with the reality of having to trade for hitter, be it now or over the winter. At this stage, we can all agree that hitting prospect Lars Anderson is at least a year away (and probably two) from being any kind of real presence (if he ever becomes one). Bay currently looks like the best option on the free agent market. The good news is that Epstein knew this day was coming and that he has enough pitching to buy some offense and keep the change.

Over the last year, from trading deadline to trading deadline, the Red Sox have undergone some massive alterations, some more dramatic, some more gradual. Minus the Ramirez and Ortiz of 2003-08, the brand of baseball here has changed. Maybe it has changed everywhere. The Sox of today pitch first and hit second, which is fine so long as the balance generally remains intact. Long-term, the worry is that the future of Red Sox pitching looks far more promising than the future of the Red Sox offense, particularly as current Sox players age and, in the case of Ortiz, diminish.

On the one-year anniversary of the Ortiz-Ramirez breakup, the Red Sox, it seems are still searching for a new offensive identity. Today, there is a chance to find one. And there is a chance to make it real.

"You've often heard me say that we're in the Golden Era of baseball. David Ortiz -- Big Papi -- symbolizes that Golden Era. He's been such a great player on a grand stage, but it's his personality along with his ability that has made him an important part of this sport. I have enormous respect for David Ortiz. He's conducted himself so beautifully off the field as well as on the field. I'm very proud of David Ortiz for a myriad of reasons. It's everything about him. When you say `David Ortiz,' the first thing I think is 'Big Papi,' and that's a great compliment to him. He stands as a great symbol of the success of this sport -- and a symbol for all the right reasons.''
-- A comment made by baseball commissioner Bud Selig during the winter of 2005-06 that appears in David Ortiz's autobiography

And so now we know, with 99.9 percent certainty, what we have long suspected and feared: Big Papi is a myth. The rags-to-riches story is truly a fairy tale. David Ortiz is a symbol of baseball now just as he was then, though this time he is playing the role of yet another damaged superstar who succumbed to the pressures during the most tainted era in baseball history.

So what are we supposed to think now, fellow Sox followers? According to a report today in the New York Times -- it ain't exactly The Star -- Ortiz and Manny Ramirez both were on the list of 104 players who failed tests for performance-enhancing drugs during the survey conducted in 2003. That was the year the Red Sox set a major league record for slugging percentage. That was the year Big Papi was born. That was the year Ortiz came to Boston after being released by the Minnesota Twins as a 27-year-old underachieving slugger with 58 career home runs in 455 career games.

Three years later, in 2006, Ortiz hit 54 home runs in 151 games to set a new Red Sox record. By then, he already had become the Most Valuable Player of the 2004 American League Championship Series and the recipient of a four-year, $52 million contract extension that runs through next season. When the free-agent market exploded the winter after Ortiz signed his deal, Red Sox owners felt so guilty about the contract that they presented Ortiz with a new pickup truck the following spring.

As it turns out, we now have nothing but questions. Maybe Ortiz should give the truck back. Maybe the Red Sox were right to sit him behind fellow user Jeremy Giambi after all. Maybe the Twins released him for very good reasons and maybe the 2004 World Series trophy is nothing but a hologram, generated by science and appealing to the eye but quite literally impossible to touch.

After the game, Ortiz issued a statement saying he was surprised to learn of the positive test and that he was going to find out what he tested positive for.

"I want to talk about this situation and I will as soon as I have more answers," Ortiz said in the statement. "In the meantime I want to let you know how I am approaching this situation. One, I have already contacted the Players Association to confirm if this report is true. I have just been told that the report is true. Based on the way I have lived my life, I am surprised to learn I tested positive. Two, I will find out what I tested positive for. And, three, based on whatever I learn, I will share this information with my club and the public. You know me - I will not hide and I will not make excuses."

Red Sox diehards are certain to know that Alex Rodriguez was identified as being on this same list during spring training. Within days, Rodriguez conducted his unforgettable press conference at the Yankees' spring training facility and Ortiz similarly held a press briefing in Fort Myers. Rodriguez claimed to be a foolish young man operating during "amateur hour." Ortiz suggested that any player who tested positive for steroids should be suspended for an entire year.

In retrospect, doth he protest too much?

Sooner or later, we all knew this was coming, if not Ortiz then with someone else. Earlier this year, when Ramirez served a 50-game suspension for violating baseball's current substance-abuse policy, the most loyal Red Sox followers dug in their heels. There was no evidence to suggest Ramirez used PEDs in while in Boston. In a promotional ad that routinely runs on WEEI-AM 850, Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said even Red Sox officials believed that Ramirez did not start using performance-enhancing substances until he got to Los Angeles and played the final two months of last season auditioning for a new contract.

But this? This leaves no doubt that the Red Sox had users during the most critical years of their recent history. After Ortiz became the MVP of the 2004 ALCS, Ramirez was named MVP of the World Series. From June 1, 2003 through July 31, 2008 -- the time Ortiz effectively became a starter to the time Ramirez was traded -- the Red Sox scored more runs (4,723) than any team in baseball but the New York Yankees (4,766). The Sox won more world titles (two) than any team in the game. The Red Sox had the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball, the Ruth and Gehrig of the modern era, a two-headed monster around which Bill Mueller became a batting champion and Johnny Damon became a cult figure.

Again, in retrospect, we now know that Ortiz and Ramirez seem have a great deal more in common with Big Mac and Slammin' Sammy than they do with the Bambino and the Iron Horse.

With regard to Ortiz, in particular, today's news is disappointing, damning, downright sad. More than Ramirez or Rodney Harrison -- local sports stars similarly tarnished by the use of performance-enhancing substances -- Ortiz was embraced by this region like few stars in New England sports history. He wasn't just a prolific slugger, he was a good guy, too. With regard to the latter, maybe he still is. But what Ortiz is, without question, is forever damaged by his own vulnerability and frailty, his inability to distinguish right from wrong, his careless decision-making, his suddenly empty rhetoric for harsher penalties against those using performance-enhancing substances.

Today, Ortiz is no better than Ramirez or Rodriguez or Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens or Rafael Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, or Jason Giambi.

With them, Big Papi stands as a symbol for everything that went so terribly wrong.

Editor's note: In the interest of full disclosure, Tony Massarotti collaborated with David Ortiz on a 2007 autobiography.

As it turns out, they have divas in Japan, too.

They have multimillion-dollar athletes who take all of the credit and none of the blame, and they have overpaid excuse-makers just as proficient at passing the buck. Apparently, at least in Daisuke Matsuzaka's house, they just don't have mirrors.

"I think we all share, in a word, that it's disappointing," Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell said a short time ago in the Boston clubhouse -- veins all but bulging from his neck -- in response to critical comments made by Daisuke Matsuzaka. Added Farrell when asked if he was frustrated, "The disappointment comes in airing his dirty laundry."

Disappointed? No, no, no. The Red Sox are not disappointed. They are downright angry. At instants during an impromptu gathering in the middle of the clubhouse prior to tonight's game with the Oakland Athletics, Farrell looked as if his head were about to explode. The truth is that the Red Sox were tired of Matsuzaka's high-maintenance act a long time ago, but they kept their mouths shut and put up with it because Matsuzaka won games.

Now that Matsuzaka is the possessor of a 1-5 record and 8.23 ERA, the gloves are coming off, though it should be stressed that Matsuzaka threw the first punch here. As the saying goes, you truly find out about a person's character during the bad times more than you do the good times. Matsuzaka returned from Florida on Friday to check in with Sox doctors and officials, a meeting after which Francona sat before assembled media and expressed optimism that the lines of communication were more open than ever with his struggling pitcher.

Within days, based on an interpretation that first appeared on WEEI.com, Matsuzaka told the Japanese media the following: "If I'm forced to continue to train in this environment, I may no longer be able to pitch like I did in Japan. The only reason why I managed to win games during the first and second years [in the United States] was because I used the savings of the shoulder I built up in Japan. Since I came to the Major Leagues, I couldn't train in my own way, so now I've lost all those savings."

Is he kidding with this? Really? Last season, while going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, Matsuzaka became the first major league starter in history to win 18 or more games with as few as 167-2/3 innings pitched. He ranked fifth in the majors in run support. Matsuzaka threw the shocking average of precisely 17.3 pitches per inning in 29 starts and, on average, pitched roughly 5 2/3 innings per outing, which means he got support from than just the Red Sox offense. He got support from the Boston bullpen, too.

But ask him and Matsuzaka will tell you the only reason why I managed to win games during the first and second years [in the United States] was because I used the savings of the shoulder I built up in Japan.

What Matsuzaka did not say, of course, was that he showed up in camp this year looking like the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man. (What's the Japanese word for doughboy, anyway?) Asked about Matsuzaka's strength when the pitcher returned from the World Baseball Classic, Farrell said at the time that Matsuzaka graded out well when the club tested the pitcher's shoulder. In retrospect, what Farrell did not say was that Matsuzaka looked like he spent the winter eating bon bons, which the Red Sox believe contributed to the pitcher's problems.

"It's not just the shoulder," Farrell said tonight when asked about the importance of proper conditioning. "When the overall body is not in the condition necessary to support that, there has to be some responsibility taken [on the part of the pitcher.]"

Like we said, Matsuzaka apparently doesn't have many mirrors in his home.

Obviously, there is a great deal to consider here. When the Red Sox first acquired Matsuzaka for a total investment of $103.11 million, they reminded us of the cultural and baseball issues that inevitably would take place. They have bent over backwards to accommodate their pitcher. In the middle of this crisis, it is important to remember that Matsuzaka has no real allies or outlet in the American media and that this story is likely to be one-sided. American reporters have nothing to lose by criticizing Matsuzaka and taking the side of the Red Sox, regardless of whether the Sox have handled things in proper fashion.

In this case, by all accounts, the Red Sox have done everything to make Matsuzaka's experience in Boston a good one. Obviously, it is in the club's interest to do so. In retrospect, we can now state with certainty that the Red Sox are now far more frustrated with Matsuzaka than they ever were with the WBC, and they clearly feel now as if they cannot trust a pitcher in whom they invested a historic amount of money.

Said Red Sox manager Terry Francona, "For $102 million, if he were to go out there and do it his own way with his own coaches, if Mr. [John] Henry came down and said 'What's going on with Daisuke?' and if we said, 'We're just letting him do it his way,' that wouldn't be a good answer."

Said Farrell, "We'd like to think we're doing our best to put him in the best situation, and yet this is where the two worlds -- the two baseball worlds collide."

So, is this blowup now over?

"There have been a lot of conversations, a lot of discussions," said Farrell, who said the Red Sox spoke directly with Matsuzaka yesterday but declined to offer the details. "Whether he believes it -- I think that comes out in his article."

So there you have it.

Matsuzaka doesn't believe in the Red Sox and the Red Sox don't seem to believe in him.

Maybe it's just Dice-K being Dice-K.

Just a few feet from where Clay Buchholz spoke, as the notebooks and cameras clustered near the starting pitcher's locker, Daniel Bard stood in relative serenity last night. The annual major league trading deadline is now just three days away, but rest assured that no one will get within an arm's length of the Red Sox' latest phenom.

And so on and on it goes at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox posted an 8-3 win over the Oakland A's last night as the hype over Bard continued to grow: another night, another appearance, another pair of strikeouts. That's 19 whiffs in 10 1/3 innings this month. Boston's blossoming setup man has struck out 19 of the last 35 batters he has faced -- that is a whopping 54.3 percent -- and the oooohs and aaaahs are now coming from executive offices throughout the game just as surely as they are coming from the capacity crowds at Fenway.

On the field and off, Bard is blowing everyone away.

One thing about the trading season: teams get so entrenched in the bargaining that reality gets distorted. It's like an arbitration hearing without the money. One side pumps up the commodity it is trying to sell, the other picks it apart in hopes of bringing down the price. If the players in question ever had the luxury of overhearing the conversations, they'd emerge with either an even more distorted sense of self-importance or an incurable inferiority complex.

Last week, two of the game's executives, despite being hundreds of miles away from one another, were downright stereophonic in their assessment of the Red Sox. The Sox are growing arrogant, they said. They overvalue their prospects. The success of young Boston players from Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon to Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury has created an unrealistic outlook in the Boston organization, not to mention an inflation of the Boston farm system perpetuated by the Sox' subwoofers in the media.

Yes, with regard to drafting and player development, the Red Sox have been good. But they have not been that good because there is a great deal of luck involved, too.

All of this brings us to Bard, who is becoming to baseball what Ernie Els is to golf: The Big Easy. Listed at 6 foot 4 and 200 pounds, Bard looks like he's playing catch with a 12-year-old when he delivers the ball to home plate. The radar gun nonetheless lights up like a Roman candle. Every time Bard enters a game, fans at Fenway begin sliding forward in their seats as if preparing for the grand finale at the Esplanade on the Fourth of July.

Of course, because Bard is here and succeeding in the major leagues now, eyes are popping just as surely as Jason Varitek's catcher's mitt. The numbers support the prognosis. That was hardly the case last year with Buchholz, whom one of the two executives recently labeled as, at best, a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a questionable frame. And it is not the case now with Lars Anderson, the 6-4, 215-pound potential slugger who is batting .260 with a .389 slugging percentage this year in Double-A. Anderson, said the same official, is not quite the hitter the Red Sox are making him out to be.

But Bard? There are no real arguments about Daniel Bard or, for that matter, budding prospect Casey Kelly. The difference is that Bard is now vaporizing hitters at the major league level. The one question about Bard, conceded one of the two executives, is that his "makeup'' remains a question, which is to say that no one really knows yet if he has the inner stuff of a big-time closer. There really is no way to know that until Bard has to take the mound again after a badly blown save. On the field and off, Bard could be as pressurized as Jonathan Papelbon or as downright cool as Mariano Rivera, but what matters, in the end, is what is inside. None of us watching from afar ever should confuse perception with reality, personality with character.

In the end, what the Red Sox have here is perhaps their most valuable commodity in the hours leading up to 4 p.m. on Friday, when the baseball season effectively starts anew. Maybe Daniel Bard will be the next Kyle Farnsworth; maybe he will be the next Papelbon. At the moment, he looks far more like the latter than the former, a shiny new toy working absolutely perfectly after just being pulled out of the box.

Last night, just as Buchholz was preparing to leave the clubhouse in anticipation of his first start this year at Fenway tonight, Buchholz said he was "pretty confident'' he would remain with the Sox through the trading deadline on Friday. The likelihood is that he will stay. Meanwhile, the man who could be Buchholz's closer someday is continuing his meteoric ascension to cult-figure status, that rare kind of talent that can electrify nearly 40,000 people in the span of maybe 15 pitches.

Daniel Bard is going places just as July 31 nears, it seems, but you can be fairly certain that Red Sox have no intention of letting him go anywhere.

"If you don’t get immediate results, you don’t go the other way. We believe in what we’re doing."

- Red Sox manager Terry Francona when asked about John Smoltz on Friday

During any time but the trading season, the concerns might not be so great now, regarding John Smoltz or anyone else. There would be more time, less urgency, more comprehensive debate about who the Red Sox are and, just as important, where they are headed.

Yet, in the short term as well as the long, the answer now is the same as it might have been then: Even as the July 31 trading deadline rapidly approaches, the Red Sox do not need a pitcher as much as they do a hitter.

Six starts into his career with the Red Sox, Smoltz is 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA following yesterday’s 6-2 Sox loss to the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are now 8-2 against the Orioles this season, both defeats in games started by Smoltz. Overall, the Sox are 1-5 in Smoltz’s starts this year and 2-6 in games started by Daisuke Matsuzaka, the man whom Smoltz replaced in the starting rotation last month. Combined, in prorated salaries and posting fees, the Red Sox are paying those two men just short of $22.7 million (that’s Johan Santana money) while going 3-11 in their 14 starts.

Combined, Smoltz and Matsuzaka have a 7.68 ERA.

Meanwhile, the trade winds now are in full force, famous names being blown around as if they were grains of sand on the Cape: Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez. Boston’s depth of prospects makes the Sox viable contenders for any of those players, each of whom could help the club at least this year and next. The question is what the Red Sox want to give up combined with how much money they are willing to spend, weighing both Boston’s title chances in 2009 and its long-term expectations of being a contender.

Smoltz? He really changes nothing because every team in baseball has at least one soft spot in the rotation. (Ask the Yankees where they would be were it not for Chien-Ming Wang.) The Red Sox still have Tim Wakefield on the disabled list, Clay Buchholz in their reserve tank, Justin Masterson in their bullpen. They have Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, and Casey Kelly in their future. Organizationally speaking, Boston’s pitching is deep, with Josh Beckett under control through next season and John Lester signed through 2013.

The offense is another story, particularly over the longer term. Mike Lowell is 35 and having hip problems again; the Red Sox now are telling us that they knew Lowell might not be 100 percent again until 2010. (Can they bank on that?) We should all be able to agree now that David Ortiz has slipped. Jason Varitek is 37 and Jason Bay is eligible for free agency. Newcomer Adam LaRoche will likely be here for nothing more than a few months, depending on how far the Sox go in September and, perhaps, October.

As for the short term, the Sox rank a mediocre seventh in the American League in runs scored since May 9. During that span, there are also five National League clubs who have outscored what was once the most prolific offense in baseball.

During his time as general manager, Theo Epstein has refrained from giving up anything of consequence for the classic midsummer rental -- at least since the disaster that was Jeff Suppan during the summer of 2003. Even the Eric Gagne deal has not proven as costly as it might have, despite the relative success of David Murphy. At the time of the deal, too, the Sox they believed they would get two compensatory draft picks when Gagne departed via free agency, though they ended up with only one when Gagne failed so thoroughly that he affected his status as a free agent (and, thus, the compensation tied to him).

By Friday, if Epstein makes a substantive deal at all, the likelihood is that he will do so for a player who can help the Red Sox now and in the future. He might even be able to spin LaRoche (if he eats the money) in a package, allowing a team like the Padres or Indians to replace Gonzalez or Martinez, effectively for free, over the final two months. Epstein also would have to give up an elite prospect or two, of course, whether it be Buchholz or Kelly or Lars Anderson. (Note: According to a baseball source, the Indians offered to deal Martinez for Buchholz straight up, but the Sox quickly declined.)

With regard to Boston’s offensive needs, they are now quite clear. The Red Sox’ run production has slipped over the last two months and it is trending in the wrong direction. With or without Bay, if the Red Sox want a hitter between now and Opening Day 2010, they will likely need to trade for it. Anderson, just 21 and batting .259 in Portland, isn’t ready to become a full-time player in 2010. The free-agent market looks thin. And if the Sox are going to trade for a hitter over the winter, wouldn’t it benefit them to do so now, so that they can take another run at a World Series championship?

Yes, Smoltz is failing. Yes, Matsuzaka has been a bust this year. But Epstein has been careful about sacrificing elite prospects in one deal, let alone two, which the Red Sox have important choices to make before 4 p.m. Friday.

As best we know, Jim Rice never took banned substances, never secretly used a syringe, and never relied on performance-enhancers. Yet, when the definitive account of the steroids era is written, there may be no one remembered as a greater beneficiary.

James Edward Rice is making his official journey into Cooperstown this weekend, immortalizing a career that took far too long validate. As it turned out, the voters are the ones who needed the help of steroids this time. Rice was the most dominating hitter in baseball during the majority of a career that lasted 2,089 games and covered at least parts of 16 seasons, and we didn’t understand how good he was, how truly worthy of enshrinement, until his numbers were crystallized by those greedy, self-promoting body builders who all but engineered their careers in a test tube.

Shame on them, of course. Shame on us, too. Thank heavens that we recognized the error of our ways before it was too late.

With regard to Hall of Fame enshrinement, we all know the rules. A player presents his case over the course of thousands of games, and then he retires. Five years later, he comes up for election. He remains eligible so long as he gets 5 percent of the vote, for a maximum of 15 years, no matter who else joins the discussion. If and when he is named on 75 percent of ballots cast in any one year, he takes his place in baseball’s pantheon and is effectively frozen in time.

Rice needed all 15 years, right down to the very last day,. In 2009, his 15th and final year of eligibility, Rice needed to appear on 405 of the 539 ballots cast to make it into the Hall of Fame. He ended up on 412. Even eight fewer votes would have left Rice with an approval rate of .7495 that would have robbed him of the game’s greatest individual honor. In Cooperstown, there is no rounding off and there is no such thing as a close second.

In retrospect, there can be no disputing the impact of steroids on Rice’s career, which ended in 1989, nine years before Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa engaged in what has since proven to be nothing more than a long-drive contest. It all seems so silly now, doesn’t it? McGwire and Sosa hit a combined 136 home runs in 1998, precisely 35.6 percent of the total Rice hit in his career, and we celebrated them as superheroes. As it turned out, McGwire and Sosa were nothing more than superhuman, like the juiced-up Ivan Drago in "Rocky IV".

Five years later, when baseball’s dirty little secret exploded into a full-blown epidemic, the superheroes didn’t look so super anymore and the lumberjacks started getting their due. Rocky Balboa chopped wood on an abandoned farm in a snow-covered Soviet Union; Rice swung his axe in what was then our steroid-free national pastime. Rice went to eight All-Star Games and finished in the top five of the American League MVP balloting on six occasions. In 1978, the year he won the MVP, Rice batted .315 with 46 home runs, 139 RBIs and 406 total bases.

As it turns out, those numbers mean even more now than they did then.

By 2004, when the game’s steroids scandal was starting to mushroom, Hall of Fame voters were starting to recognize what many New Englanders learned during the summer of 1978. Back then, Rice hit the ball as consistently far as Big Mac or Sammy, and he didn’t do it in baseball’s version of the WWE. During the five-year period from 2000-2004, Rice appeared on the following percentage of Hall of Fame Ballots, in order: 51.5, 57.9, 55.1, 52.2, and 54.5. Some of those numbers resulted from an influx of candidates that included people like Eddie Murray and Gary Carter, some of whom took away votes from people like Rice. Some were a simple indication that many voters regarded Rice as the classic borderline candidate, a literal 50-50 proposition.

Then, beginning in 2005, the numbers started to go up, and they started to go up dramatically: 59.5, 64.8, 63.5, 72.2, and finally 76.4. Rice’s career accomplishments did not change during that span. He already had spent 10 years on the ballot. And yet, it was if someone had shed an entirely new light on the career of a man whose presence in the batter’s box, especially, should have been indisputable in the first place.

Like any voters in any election, the qualifying members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (who cast the Hall of Fame ballots) can be inconsistent and open themselves up to scrutiny. All of them have a responsibility to explain their decisions. Over the years, one of the greatest criticisms of the BBWAA has been the change in voting results from players like Rich Gossage all the way down to Rice. How can a player go from getting 29.4 percent of the vote one year (as Rice did in 1999) to getting 76.4 percent of the vote precisely 10 years later? How can voters explain such a glaring inconsistency when Rice did not have a single plate appearance during that span?

The final answer, of course, is that voting bodies change, standards change and even the game changes, the last of those all but coming in the form of a genetic alteration.

During those years, Jim Rice changed too, from a lumberjack into a baseball superhero.

Kevin Youkilis's versatility helped the Red Sox acquire Adam LaRoche (Reuters)

Today, especially, give thanks for Kevin Youkilis. Regardless of what you think about the Adam LaRoche acquisition, the Red Sox now appear to be a better team on paper. The new (and improved?) Sox will take the field for the first time tomorrow night against the Baltimore Orioles in a much-needed return to Fenway Park.

Let’s be clear on this: The only reason the Sox were able to even make this move is because they have arguably the most versatile and valuable corner infielder in the game.

Roughly four hours before last night’s 3-1 loss to the Texas Rangers -- that’s five in a row, if you’re counting -- Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein conducted a conference call to address the deal that brought LaRoche to Boston for minor leaguers Argenis Diaz and Hunter Strickland. Epstein kept referring to the "reasonable acquisition cost" of a lefthanded-hitter with power, which was an extremely tactful way of saying that LaRoche was all but picked up for nothing from Pittsburgh, baseball’s answer to Building 19. (Good stuff cheap.) As owner John Henry noted on Twitter last night: "[The] trading deadline hasn’t passed but don’t expect blockbuster(s); [we] like this club; [we] love the prospects it might take to do a blockbuster."

Capisce? The Sox had no interest in giving up anyone of consequence and they still don’t. If you think there’s a bigger gift than this coming before July 31, we’d advise you to don your jammies, put out a plate of milk and cookies, then wait for Señor Claus.

All of this brings us back to Youkilis, who has been the Red Sox’ answer to most every problem over the last two seasons. Entering this season, the two most potent lefthanded bats in Boston belonged to designated hitter David Ortiz and right fielder J.D. Drew. Combined, while counting for $27 million against the Red Sox payroll, they are now batting .230 with 161 strikeouts in 169 games. Overall this season, the lefthanded bats in the Boston lineup (non-pitchers, including switch hitters) are batting .242, a number skewed by the presence of Jacoby Ellsbury, whose .287 average qualifies as the only number above .233 among everyday players in that group.

To wit: Minus Ellsbury, who is slugging .384, the Red Sox have a .226 average from a cast of lefthanded hitters that has included: Jonathan Van Every (4 for 11, .364, out for the year), Mark Kotsay (19 for 74, .257), Drew (.233), Ortiz (.228), Jason Varitek (.219 from the left side), George Kottaras (.213), Jed Lowrie (.095 from the left side) and Chris Carter (0 for 5, .000).

As a group, the Red Sox lefthanded hitters have been positively wretched this season, which is why the Sox were so focused almost exclusively on a lefthanded bat.

So, how does this relate to Youkilis? Given the issues on the left side of the infield, third base and shortstop were about the only two places the Sox could look for an upgrade. Finding a potent lefthanded hitter at either position is a virtual impossibility, particularly when factoring in the Red Sox’ desire to minimize the cost in terms of prospects. (Oh, but if only they had ponied up for Mark Teixeira last winter.) Adding in the dearth of overall power hitters at shortstop -- let alone lefthanded-hitting ones -- the Sox really were forced to seek an upgrade at one position, third base, where Mike Lowell’s ongoing health issues have created an opening.

Here’s the problem: There aren’t many lefthanded-hitting third basemen available. Since the start of last season, among players with at least 60 games at third base, only two (Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez) have a higher OPS than Youkilis (.922) at the position. Both are signed to long-term contracts that make them either unavailable or undesirable. (By the way, Ortiz is signed through next year for $13 million per and Drew is signed through 2011 at $14 million per, making each untradable given his current level of play.) The only third basemen on that list are people like Greg Dobbs (Philadelphia), Mark Teahen (Kansas City) and Carlos Guillen (Detroit).

So, if Youkilis couldn’t play third base as effectively as he does -- and seamlessly make the transition from one corner to the other -- the Red Sox might very well have been relegated to someone like Dobbs or Teahen, the latter of whom they expressed interest in. Youkilis saved their bacon by opening up an entirely new market of players that included lefthanded-hitting first basemen, which allowed them to acquire someone like LaRoche at that oh-so-important "reasonable acquisition cost."

For what it’s worth, other than Youkilis, there is not a man in baseball who has played 60 games at first base and 60 games at third base since the start of the 2008 season. Among third baseman, as mentioned, only Jones and Rodriguez have a higher OPS than Youkilis during that span. Among first basemen, Youkilis has the highest OPS in the American League (.986) and trails only the freakish Albert Pujols (1.113) in the majors.

Think about that for a minute. If the Sox put Youkilis at third, he’s one of the most productive players in baseball. If they put him at first, he’s one of the most productive players in baseball. And we haven’t even factored in Youkilis’s defensive skills or ability to move around the lineup, the latter of which proved similarly invaluable last season after the Sox cut bait with Manny Ramirez and asked Youkilis to be their cleanup hitter.

Oh, by the way, Epstein signed Youkilis to a four-year, $41.125 contract last offseason that translates into an average of basically $10.25 million per year. Compare that to the average annual salaries of people like Jones ($14 million through 2012), Rodriguez ($27.5 million through eternity) and Pujols ($16 million through 2011). Now that’s a "reasonable acquisition cost."

In the end, maybe you don’t like the LaRoche pickup. Maybe you wanted something more, which is particularly understandable given the Red Sox' long-term need for a power hitter from the left side because of the demise of Ortiz, the disappointment of Drew, and the delay of Lars Anderson. But when you consider the Red Sox’ approach of regarding their best prospects as the real world treats oil, the Red Sox weren’t going to give up much here. They still ended up getting an extremely serviceable player for an American League East race that suddenly looks as if it will be a fight to the finish.

For that, they have Kevin Youkilis to thank.

If you’re wondering what lefthanded first baseman Adam LaRoche will bring to the Red Sox, here’s an assessment from a respected, longtime major league evaluator:

"I like the move for the Red Sox. ... He’s real streaky [offensively] and an outstanding defender. ... Most of his bad at-bats come against lefthanded pitching ... He’s a rhythm hitter. If he’s a little off, he can look real ugly. If he’s right, he can get real hot. There’s no in-between with him. ... He plays the game with a very easy pace. Sometimes people criticize that because it can look lackadaisical. ... He’s not just a pull guy. He can go all over the field. There’s ability there. You can’t put up 25 [home runs] and 75 [RBI] every year and not have something.’’

As most everyone knows at this point, the Red Sox needed a lefthanded bat that could provide them with some thump from the middle of the lineup, whether it be from the No. 5 or No. 6 spot. In their last 21 games against righthanded pitching, the Red Sox are batting .221 with a .679 OPS. David Ortiz's overall decline, coupled with J.D. Drew’s sudden and worrisome ineffectiveness -- he’s batting .236 now -- left the Red Sox especially vulnerable against righthanders.

With LaRoche -- who is hitting .247 with 12 homers and 40 RBIs -- in the mix, you should expect Mike Lowell to get some time off against righthanded pitching with Kevin Youkilis shifting to third base. With lefties on the mound, LaRoche will likely sit with Lowell playing third and Youkilis remaining at first. If Ortiz goes into any kind of funk, the Sox could also work Lowell into the mix at designated hitter against certain pitchers, only because the time away from the field would take additional strain off Lowell’s hip. Youkilis also could DH if the Sox choose; ultimately, depending on matchups, the bottom line is that the Sox now have four players for three spots.

A few other notes from the deal:

• Financially speaking, LaRoche will cost the Red Sox approximately $3 million for the remainder of the season. LaRoche is slightly more than halfway through a one-year, $7.05 million deal, and he is eligible for free agency at the end of this year. The likelihood at this stage is that LaRoche is nothing more than a rental, meaning the Sox will likely allow him to leave following the season, after which they will be awarded some form of compensation in the draft.
• If you expected the Sox to make a blockbuster acquisition before the July 31 trading deadline -- and if you still do -- don’t hold your breath. While there may be a chance for another, lesser deal -- a lefty reliever, maybe? -- the Red Sox have no major needs beyond a lefthanded bat. An elite hitter or pitcher would require the Sox to part with a top prospect -- someone like Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa or Casey Kelly, among others -- and the Sox have given no indication in recent years that they are interested in trading up to six years of service from a relative young, cheap player for one or two years of service an older and potentially overpaid one.
• LaRoche was quite outspoken when the Pirates traded Nate McLouth to the Braves earlier this season. That almost certainly had nothing to do with this deal, but it does indicate some passion from a player who has been criticized, as reported above for sometimes appearing "lackadaisical.’’ And we stress the word appearing.
• Of the two minor-league players the Sox gave up in the deal, shortstop Argenis Diaz has "a chance to be an everyday player,’’ according to the same evaluator from above. Diaz has a long way to go offensively but is seen as a gifted fielder who might give the Pirates some long-term insurance behind Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, both of whom are free agents after this season. The question is whether he can hit, which evokes comparisons to Engel Beltre, the infielder whom the Sox sent to Texas in the Eric Gagne deal in 2007. The other player sent to Pittsburgh is a Class-A pitcher by the name of Hunter Strickland, on whom the above evaluator had little knowledge.

For the first time since June 7, first place now belongs to someone else. With last night’s loss to the Texas Rangers, the Red Sox now trail the New York Yankees by a game in the American League East. Since returning home for their final homestand of the first half, the Sox are 7-8.

A cause for concern? Or merely a bump in the road?

With both options in mind, we offer five reasons to panic . . . and five more to remain calm:

THE PESSIMIST’S TOP FIVE REASONS TO PANIC

1. The Red Sox can’t hit righthanded pitching.Don’t believe it? In their last 21 games against righthanders, beginning with the loss to Washington's Jordan Zimmerman on June 25, the Red Sox are batting .221 with a .679 OPS. This only reaffirms the point that the Sox’ biggest need is a lefthanded hitter because a righthanded pitcher can neutralize Boston’s best hitters -- Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis. As for the lefties, David Ortiz isn’t what he used to be; J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury again look inconsistent. (Note: A short time after this entry was posted, the Red Sox acquired lefthanded-hitting first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of minor leaguers.)

2. The starting pitching isn’t as deep as the perception: With Tim Wakefield now on the disabled list, ask yourself this: Whom do you trust beyond Josh Beckett and Jon Lester? Minus Beckett and Lester, Red Sox starters this season have a 6.12 ERA. When you get right down to it, does this team have pitching to deal for the help it clearly needs on offense?

3. The Sox can’t beat good teams. Maybe this is a matter of semantics, but for the moment, let’s define "good teams’’ as ones with a winning record. While the Sox are 32-24 against clubs over .500, they are 24-24 against winning clubs other than the Yankees. Meanwhile, against winning clubs other than the Red Sox, the Yankees have gone 28-17. The Yankees of today appear like a completely different club than the one the Sox faced earlier in the year.

4. The Red Sox don’t have a leadoff hitter. Entering tonight’s trip finale against the Rangers in Texas, the Red Sox rank 27th in baseball -- and last in the American League -- in OPS from the leadoff spot. The Sox also rank 27th overall and 13th in the AL in on-base percentage. Manager Terry Francona has used six players in the leadoff spot and no one has proven capable of doing the job consistently.

5. The Sox are destined to break down. If you’re not worried about the Red Sox’ health, maybe you should be. Can Mike Lowell hold up? What about Jed Lowrie? Mark Kotsay has battled nagging injuries all year. Rocco Baldelli can handle only a limited workload. Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka are on the disabled list, John Smoltz is recovering from shoulder surgery. Historically, September is Jason Varitek’s worst month. And what are the chances J.D. Drew stays healthy?

Now for the positives . . .

THE OPTIMIST’S TOP FIVE REASONS TO REMAIN CALM

1. Beckett and Lester are the best 1-2 punch in the American League. Though each member of the Red Sox’ two-headed monster has lost his first start of the second half, that isn’t likely to happen much -- if at all -- the balance of the way. During the first half, Beckett and Lester lost consecutive starts just once -- on April 12 and 13 against the Angels and A’s, respectively. Bteween that occurrence and this one, the Red Sox went 52-29.

2. The bullpen is healed. Based on what we’ve seen so far since the break, you can put away any concerns about the Red Sox bullpen. In four games since intermission, Sox relievers have pitched 9 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out 10. Opponents are a mere 3 for 32 against them -- a paltry .094 average -- and closer Jonathan Papelbon, in particular, might be throwing as well as he has all season.

3. Jason Bay is going to hit sooner or later. In his last 22 games, Bay is 11 for 75 (a .147 average) with one home run, three RBI and a whopping 31 strikeouts, a slump bordering on the Ortizian. Bay has not hit righthanders or lefthanders during that span, and he is far too good a hitter for that to continue. Over the course of his career, Bay generally has been as consistent a player in the second half as he has been in the first. That shouldn't change.

4. The Sox pummel lefthanded pitching. Aside from the fact that the team’s three best hitters are righthanded -- Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay -- the Sox also benefit greatly against lefties because Jason Varitek and Jed Lowrie are far more productive players from the right side of the plate. Against lefthanded pitching, from 1 through 9, the Red Sox can trot out one of the very best lineups in baseball, which will help neutralize divisional lefties like CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and David Price, among others.

5. The Red Sox aren’t pessimists. Freed from the burden of their past, the Sox aren’t negative thinkers anymore. Francona, in particular, performs at his best during times of crisis. Pedroia, Varitek, Ortiz, Beckett, Lester and Papelbon, among others, are all winning players and mentally tough competitors who will not come unglued during difficult times. Organizationally, from top to bottom, the Red Sox are downright unflappable, as they have proven in the postseason.

Are you worried, or remaining calm? Take our survey.

Clay Buchholz in the majors? It might be a a knee-jerk reaction. (Yoon S. Byun / Globe Staff)

Editor's note: This blog entry was published earlier Tuesday, before the news that Clay Buchholz would be called up to the Red Sox to take the place of Tim Wakefield, who went on the disabled list.

Presumably, the same people clamoring for Clay Buchholz now are the same ones who were clamoring for John Smoltz then. The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. And in the world of major league baseball, the pitching is always better one stop before the major leagues.

Sole possessors of first place in the American League East less than a week ago, the Red Sox are now tied with the New York Yankees atop the division following last night’s 6-3 loss to the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox have begun the second half of this season just as they began the first, when they played .250 baseball (2-6) to start the year. Boston’s only win so far in the second half came behind Buchholz, who has one more career no-hitter than Smoltz to go along with 205 fewer victories and 154 fewer saves.

We know what you’re thinking: Why isn’t Buchholz here? On some levels, it is a legitimate question. On others, it is a knee-jerk reaction to what is, at the moment, nothing more than a slow start to the second half of a season that produced the best record in the AL through last weekend.

The AL East being what it is, the 2009 season had the makings of an especially long fight from the very beginning -- and an especially long fight it is shaping up to be. In some ways, the season has not really even begun yet. Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay looked to be the three best teams in the AL when this season began, and there has been little to dissuade us from that belief as we approach the 100-game mark.

If the season were to end today -- famous last words, we know -- the Red Sox would be division champions by virtue of their head-to-head record over New York; the Yankees would be wild card winners; the defending-AL champion Rays would be on the outside looking in.

So, is there really reason to be alarmed yet? The most worrisome development so far this half is that Red Sox have lost three of four this season to the Rangers, who are currently tied with the Rays, 4 1/2 games out in the race for the wild card. The Rangers suddenly do not appear as if they will be going away. Any win over Texas now could mean a great deal later, especially with unbalanced scheduling producing a bushel of intra-divisional games in the final two months of the season.

Nonetheless, before anyone gets too alarmed, rest assured that the Red Sox planned for this. Their entire strategy around the All-Star break was designed with the bigger picture in mind, which is to say that the Sox remained focused on August, September and, of course, October. The Red Sox don’t hope to make the playoffs any more so much as they expect to be there, and they have to plan for it. That means giving as much rest as possible to people like Brad Penny and Smoltz, each of whom took the mound in recent days on nine days of rest. Nine. If the Red Sox weren’t expecting a certain measure of rust and/or inefficiency as a result of that, they would have scheduled their pitchers for earlier turns.

Oh, and have we even mentioned that Boston’s two biggest winners from the first half -- Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield -- have yet to take the mound since the break?

For Buchholz, all of this has only resulted in another stint as Flavor of the Month, which is not meant as a criticism of his abilities or potential. By all accounts, the kid has a chance to be a very good pitcher in the major leagues. He is not necessarily one yet. Buchholz’s 2008 campaign was nothing short of a disaster, and the Red Sox understood better than anyone that Buchholz needed more time in the minors to develop his confidence and understanding of what it takes to be an effective major league pitcher.

Friday’s spot start was an acknowledgment that Buchholz could probably help them on some level now, so the club created a spot for him because it would simultaneously benefit everyone else -- in the long run.

After all, what's the rush? Why does Buchholz have to be here now? Smoltz was an investment designed to pay dividends late in the season, a stretch of time that has yet to commence; in his five starts with the club so far, the first and the last have been made on unusually long rest. From May 3 through the end of the first half, Penny posted a 3.79 ERA over the span of 13 starts. And there is not anybody in his (or her) right mind who would currently put Buchholz in the rotation over Beckett, Wakefield, or Jon Lester, the last of whom had the misfortune of squaring off with Roy Halladay on Sunday.

So, for the moment at least, the Red Sox are doing exactly what they should with Buchholz. They are waiting. Keeping Buchholz in the minors is not going to do him -- or them -- any harm. In fact, in the long run, it will only ensure that the Red Sox can keep Buchholz longer. As things stand, Buchholz is not eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season. (He had 154 days of major league service entering this season; a full year is roughly 180 days.) At this stage, if Buchholz spends roughly a month in the big leagues this year, he will instead be eligible for free agency following the 2014 campaign because he will have accrued enough service time to be eligible. By holding him a little longer now, the Red Sox could get another full year of service from him down the road, when they might not have a rotation, 1 through 5, as deep as any in the game.

If he plays now, they may pay later.

Sometimes those of us who are passionate about team sports or, more specifically, competition, focus on the individuals rather than the team. What difference does it make if Dustin Pedroia struggles in the leadoff spot so long as the Red Sox are winning? What difference does it make if Jacoby Ellsbury hits seventh and J.D. Drew first? What difference does it make if Penny and Smoltz start while Buchholz remains in the minors, an insurance policy for the short term and a cornerstone for the long?

The answer: None.

After all, it’s not about him as much as it’s about them.

Poking the air with his right index finger as if he were dotting a blackboard with a piece of chalk, Jason Varitek sat in front of his locker recently and marked the four corners of the major league strike zone. Within that same box routinely superimposed on television during most any game broadcast, Red Sox pitchers and their catcher attempt to execute their daily strategy.

Even in such a relatively small space, there are countless options.

"There are different ways you can go,’’ said Varitek, who will be behind the plate tonight when the Sox open the second half of the season at Toronto. "Take [Mike] Timlin: he could four-seam away, sink away, and cut away, so he’s created this.’’

Now, as if chopping the side of one hand with the other, Varitek formed an 'X’ to mark one corner of the plate.

"One [pitch] goes beneath the barrel [of the bat], one goes over the barrel and one goes across the barrel,’’ Varitek continued. "That’s basically three varieties of one pitch -- a fastball.’’

This is the game Varitek plays on a nightly basis, the variables being the opponent, his batterymate, and the effectiveness of any particular pitch at any given moment. There is almost always something to work with. Along with the man standing on the mound, Varitek’s job is to devise a strategy and execute it through information obtained from variety of sources -- scouts, coaches, pitchers, his own experiences -- a smaller-scale challenge akin to a football coach devising a weekly game plan.

Through the All-Star break this year, for those who believe in such things, Varitek has a catcher’s ERA of 3.80 -- the ERA of Red Sox pitchers when he is behind the plate -- a number that is the best in the American League among though who have caught at least 50 games. (By contrast, the catcher’s ERA of George Kottaras is more than a full run higher, 4.89, though he works almost exclusively with Tim Wakefield.) That number is not a commentary on Varitek so much as it a reflection of the harmony that generally exists between Red Sox pitchers and their starting catcher, a man widely regarded throughout baseball as one of the best in the game when it comes to handling a pitching staff.

It’s one thing to have the necessary artillery to get hitters out. It’s another to use it properly.

Varitek shook his head when asked if he had a general philosophy on pitching: "There’s no one way to get people out because every [pitcher] is good at something.’’

Or, more precisely, something different.

How Lester got his groove back
Let’s start with Jon Lester, who, beginning on April 29 of last season, has blossomed into one of the truly elite power lefthanders in the game. During that span, Lester is 23-10 with a 3.23 ERA, which ranks behind only CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Cliff Lee among qualifying lefties in the major leagues. Other than Lester, only Lee (22-12) has spent all of that time in the American League, where the presence of the designated hitter makes the challenge of pitching more difficult.

For the most part, Lester operates with five pitches -- a changeup, curveball, and fastball, the latter of which can come in the form of a two-seamer, four-seamer, or cutter, all of which move differently. In Lester’s case, because he is lefthanded, the two-seamer breaks in on a lefthanded batter, the cutter breaks in on a righthanded batter, and the four-seamer crosses the plate in what is closest to a straight line (but with the greatest velocity).

Generally speaking, Lester’s bread-and-butter pitch is the cutter, a pitch he can throw in the low 90s and with sharp, aggressive movement in on righthanded batters. With that pitch alone, he can make righties extremely defensive. (For hitters, hard inside pitches are often the most uncomfortable.) Lester's problems earlier this season came when he was unable to control the inside of the plate against lefties, which is to say he had trouble throwing, with velocity and movement, to the first base side (or, in his case, arm side) of the plate.

"A lot of pitchers get comfortable on one side of the plate,’’ said Red Sox manager Terry Francona, who might also have used Timlin as an example. "Maybe a righty can throw arm side to a lefthanded hitter because [the plate] is open. Maybe a righty can’t throw inside to a righty because he’s afraid he might hit him or leave it out over the middle of the plate.

"Lester’s the one who, when he’s commanding both sides -- a hitter can’t just section off one part of the plate. It’s hard for them to know what’s coming.’’

In Lester’s first 10 starts this year, while the pitcher was going 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA, Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell "basically’’ attributed the pitcher’s problems to command of the two-seam fastball on the arm side of the plate (in this case, again, down and in to lefties). To that point in the season, lefthanded batters were hitting .300 against Lester with a whopping .614 slugging percentage, .965 OPS, and six home runs. In 2008, he allowed just three home runs to lefthanded batters all year.

Since that time, in eight games, lefties have hit .234 against Lester with a .255 slugging percentage, .530 OPS and zero homers. During that span, he is 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA, the only loss being a 2-1, rain-shortened five-inning affair against the Florida Marlins.

The day Lester reclaimed the arm side of the plate was the day his season changed.

'X' marks the spot
For any pitcher, the ultimate goal is to attack both sides of the plate from different points of entry -- inside out, outside in -- a skill that produces the same 'X’ that Varitek made with his hands. When Pedro Martinez was in his prime with the Red Sox, armed with an array of crisp pitches that could move in all directions, he could carve up home plate, against righties and lefties, as if he were serving pumpkin pie.

Hitters couldn’t focus on the outer half of the plate because Martinez would beat them in. And they couldn’t focus on the inner half of the plate because Martinez could pierce them away.

Of course, with regard to operating with sheer precision and movement on both sides of the plate, one name among recent pitchers stands out above all others.

"Maddux,’’ said Francona, referring to future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, the four-time Cy Young Award winner who could manipulate the ball as if guiding it with a joystick. "He could throw that one right there [two-seamer inside] and he could live away. When we came [to Atlanta] with Philadelphia, we would marvel at the way they would set their defense. They’d play the off-field outfielder almost on the line.’’

And so, as Maddux wore out the outside corner, opponents hit one weak opposite-field fly after the next.

Of course, Maddux, who won 355 games in his 23-year career, is an exception. For most pitchers, commanding both sides of the plate is far more difficult -- and it can take years (or infinity) to master. Remember the comeback two-seamer that Derek Lowe utilized to strike out Terrence Long for the final out in Game 5 of the 2003 AL Division Series between the Red Sox and Oakland A’s? A year earlier, while suffering through a miserable year as the Boston closer, Lowe could not make that pitch consistently. The result was a tumultuous season that eventually led to Lowe’s resurrection as a starter -- and one that made him a far better pitcher, too.

By the time the Oakland series ended, Lowe had used the pitch against a succession of Oakland lefthanded batters, striking out both Long and the lefthanded-hitting Adam Melhuse on called third strikes with the game, series, and season on the line.

"That was as clutch as you can possibly be,’’ Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said of Lowe at the time. "I don't know how many pitchers in the game have the guts to make those pitches.’’

Said Varitek, "That strike three pitch was the best pitch he's ever made.’’

To Melhuse or to Long?

"Both of them,’’ Varitek said.

This brings us to righthander Justin Masterson, the talented young pitcher who, stylistically, is the best comparison to Lowe among those currently on the Boston roster. Like Lowe, Masterson is a sinkerballer who relies largely on the movement of his two-seamer (or sinker) to produce groundouts. Like Lowe early in his career, he has trouble on the inner half of the plate against lefties (in this case, Masterson’s glove side). Sometimes, Masterson’s two-seamer tails back over the plate, where it gets pounded. Sometimes, it doesn’t tail enough and misses the plate. Masterson is thus left to combat lefties with a slider that darts down and in, albeit at a lesser velocity, but his overall inability to deal with lefties is an ongoing issue.

So far this year, lefties are batting .317 with an .864 OPS against Masterson, helping to explain why he has seemingly taken a step back in his development. He is still learning. He is still just 24 years old. Current Red Sox officials, in particular, have demonstrated great patience with their young pitchers, from Lester to Masterson and beyond, largely because the strike zone, as small as it seems, takes years to master.

After all, most pitchers struggle early in their careers. Even Maddux, who was 8-18 with an ERA over 5.00 in his first two big league seasons.

Strategy plus execution will equal success for Buchholz tonight
Tonight, when the Sox open the season half in Toronto, they will do so behind wonderboy Clay Buchholz, a unique talent by all accounts. Though last year’s rookie season produced an unsightly 2-9 record and 6.75 ERA, many agree that the 24-year-old Buchholz has the potential of a front-end major league starter. This year, at Triple A Pawtucket, the righthanded Buchholz is 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA. Lefthanded batters have hit .241 against him, righthanders a miniscule .142 with 54 strikeouts, just 9 walks and 27 hits.

Though Buchholz had difficulty with hitters of all kinds last season, lefties gave him particular trouble, which of course is not unusual for a righthanded pitcher. Because Buchholz’s repertoire of pitches includes a changeup that moves down and away from lefties -- this is a pitch he has great confidence in -- his success tonight may well reside on his "glove’’ side -- the inner part of the plate against lefties. Buchholz throws a curveball and slider to augment his changeup, along with a two-seam fastball (largely to the arm side) and a four-seam fastball (largely to the glove side). Once the game starts, it will be Varitek’s job to determine the youngster’s best plan of attack based on which pitches are working and which ones are not, Buchholz’s job to execute the pitches and engage in any give-and-take.

Together, armed with countless options, the pitcher and catcher of the Red Sox must negotiate their way through the imaginary box hovering over home plate.

Call me crazy, but on some level, I think the Red Sox actually miss Javier Lopez in their bullpen.

The Red Sox, who own the best record in the American League, will open the second half of the season tomorrow night in Toronto. Clay Buchholz will get the start. Behind him, manager Terry Francona will begin the most critical games of the year with a relief corps that recently has shown some signs of cracking, particularly in blowing leads of 10-1 (to the Baltimore Orioles on June 30) and 4-0 (to the Kansas City Royals) during the final two weeks of the first half.

Statistical aberration? Or a worrisome sign of things to come?

Now, nobody is saying that the Red Sox bullpen is a problem. The question is whether the Red Sox can do anything to improve a group that was darned near perfect as recently as two weeks ago. In 2007, as the Red Sox methodically marched toward another world title, Francona noted the considerable value, for any team, of winning the games "you're supposed to win.'' Francona was not speaking about beating inferior opponents so much as he was speaking of protecting late-inning leads -- particularly those of multiple runs -- something the Sox did with great efficiency during the first half of that season thanks largely to the unexpected emergence of Hideki Okajima.

So far this year, the Sox are a sterling 43-2 when leading after six innings, though that record does not include last week's meltdown against the Royals, when the Sox bullpen failed to hold a 5-3 lead in the sixth inning. The two losses include a 3-2 loss to the New York Mets on May 23 -- Jonathan Papelbon's first of two blown saves on the season -- and the infamous debacle at Baltimore, which ultimately produced Papelbon's second blown save of the first half.

Papelbon is not the concern here, even if he has seemed more mortal this season than during his first three years as the Sox closer. From 2006-08, Papelbon blew an average of 4.5 saves per season -- about two per half. In 2007, he blew three all year. Since the start of the 2006 season, his save percentage ranks fourth-best in baseball behind only Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez, a group widely regarded as the best closers in baseball.

So long as the Red Sox are giving Papelbon save opportunities, they'll happily take their chances. He's right there with the best.

This year more than any other in recent memory, the Red Sox have uncommon bullpen depth, making them almost as dominating in the middle innings as they have been late in games. Against both Baltimore and Kansas City, the most significant damage was done against Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen, both of whom are effectively middle relievers. To this point, Delcarmen's inability to pitch late in games has relegated him to duty mostly in the sixth or seventh innings; in Masterson's case, his inability to handle lefthanded batters means that Francona must pick his spots with him.

As much of an oddity as the Baltimore game may have been, let's look at the specifics: against Masterson and Delcarmen, lefthanded batters in that game went 4 for 9, a .444 average. Roughly 10 days later, against the same pair of relievers in the KC meltdown, lefties went 3 for 4, bringing the total to 7 for 13 (a .538 average) with four extra-base hits (three doubles, one homer). Though Delcarmen's failures were unusual -- thanks to an effective changeup, he actually has been better against lefties than righties during his career -- Masterson's difficulties have been an ongoing issue since he first reached the major leagues. This season, lefthanded batters are hitting .317 with an .864 OPS against him.

So why was he in the games at all? Because the Red Sox had sizable leads at the time, and because a young pitcher like Masterson needs to face lefties at some point if the Red Sox want him to improve. Beyond that, utilizing someone like Okajima against lefties in the middle innings would strip Francona of one of his more effective set-up men in the seventh or eighth, potentially making Boston even more vulnerable.

This brings us back to Lopez, who enjoyed a fine season as the Red Sox lefthanded specialist in 2008. Last year, Lopez limited lefties to a .182 average in 70 appearances, posting a 2.43 ERA in the process. The early-season plan this year was to have Lopez in the very same role, at least until lefties belted him at a .429 clip (with a 1.110 OPS) and ushered him back to the minor leagues, where he has since posted a 4.20 ERA in 16 games. Triple A lefties are hitting .296 against him.

With Lopez out, the Sox subsequently turned to lefty Hunter Jones and, later, righthander Daniel Bard, the latter of whom is seemingly being groomed to be Papelbon's successor some day. That has made Okajima the sole lefty in the Boston bullpen, leaving Francona without a matchup specialist for the sixth and seventh innings. Last season, of the 218 plate appearances against Lopez, 130 of them came in the sixth or seventh innings.

With roughly two weeks now remaining before the annual July 31 trading deadline, the Red Sox appear to have a need for another lefty in their bullpen, something at least one Sox official privately has acknowledged. The problem is that two lefties are a luxury that many teams covet and few possess, particularly in a world where any lefthanded pitching already is at a premium. And so, the Sox are likely to go with only one lefty (Okajima) until at least Sept. 1, when roster expansion will allow them to summon at least one specialist from a group that includes Lopez.

Then, depending on what the Sox get from the spot, an already good Boston bullpen could get even better.

Editor's note: Check out the interactive version of Mazz's midseason report card, which allows you to grade each player and see the aggregate reader grades as well as Mazz's.

Midway through this season, the Red Sox are exactly who we thought they would be: playoff contenders with a remarkably deep pitching staff and an effective offense, factors that have made them as viable a championship threat as anyone in baseball.

Are the Sox perfect? Heck no. Depending on what happens with Mike Lowell, the Sox may need help on the left side of the infield. Regardless, they could probably use a lefthanded hitter. The No. 3 spot in the rotation remains a black hole and the bullpen, in a best-case, scenario, could probably use a lefthanded specialist.

Still, all things considered, the Red Sox concluded a solid first half with Josh Beckett's shutout of the Kansas City Royals and are on pace for 99 victories. With that in mind, here are this year's midterm grades (in alphabetical order):

POSITIONAL PLAYERS

Jeff Bailey (C) -- The classic platoon candidate, he is 10 for 25 (a .400 average) with a 1.220 OPS against lefthanded pitching, just 6 for 52 (a measly .115 average) with a .515 OPS against righthanded pitching. The Red Sox knew all of this coming into the season, though Bailey probably has played a little more against righties than they might have liked. Regardless, he has given them everything he should have -- nothing more, nothing less.

Rocco Baldelli (B) -- Signed to back up J.D. Drew and spot start against lefthanded pitching, Baldelli has celebrated his return to New England by batting .328 with a .900 OPS against southpaws. Availability really hasn't been too much of an issue, but only because the Red Sox have managed his workload quite carefully. Among players who essentially spent the entire first half with the team, no one has fewer at-bats against righthanders (27).

Jason Bay (A-) -- The last couple of weeks have been tough -- a .153 average and 25 strikeouts in 17 games -- but prior to that, he established himself as a candidate for the American League Most Valuable Player Award. During the break, the Red Sox are expected to talk with his agent about a contract for 2010 and beyond. At the moment, while earning $7.5 million, he is eligible for free agency and could be in line for something in the range of $15 million annually.

J.D. Drew (B) -- As improbable as it seems, the Red Sox rank third among all AL teams in OPS from the right field position, behind only the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. (Stuff like that makes you wonder if Theo Epstein knew what he was doing when he gave Drew $14 million a year.) On the whole, Drew has been healthy and involved, now assuming the role of leadoff hitter. Has he been All-Star-caliber? No. But all the way around, pretty solid -- as usual.

Jacoby Ellsbury (A-) -- Don't look now, but the dynamic young center fielder is now growing consistent. Ellsbury hit .287 in April, .308 in May, and .313 in June. Since the start of last season, nobody in the game has stolen more bases. For now, the Red Sox are quite content to have him providing offense from the bottom third of the lineup. Long-term, he needs to find his way back to the top of the order, or, perhaps, even the middle.

Nick Green (B+) -- Are you kidding? Given the injury to Jed Lowrie and the continuing defensive issues with Julio Lugo, shortstop could have been a train wreck. Green hasn't been great, but on the whole he's been very good. And since May 18, among all major league shortstops with at least 30 games at the position, no one has made fewer errors. Seems as if the Wes Welker look-alike has more than Welker's face; he has his hands, too.

Mark Kotsay (B) -- Kotsay missed much of the first half recovering from injury, but where would they be without him now? With Mike Lowell out, Terry Francona has the option to play Kotsay at first and Kevin Youkilis at third, especially against righthanded pitching. Against righties, Kotsay is .281, albeit with relatively little power, and the defense has been good, as usual. Again, the dropoff could have been huge here. What a luxury to have on the bench.

George Kottaras (C+) -- Admittedly, there hasn't been a heck of a lot of offense, but again, that's not the point. Thanks to the Josh Bard experiment in 2006, we saw what could happen when Tim Wakefield gets paired with a new catcher. Kottaras has seven passed balls and opponents have stolen successfully on 22 of 26 attempts against him -- but those numbers are a product of the knuckler. In the end, Wakefield has 11 wins. The catcher gets some credit there.

Mike Lowell (B) -- Make no mistake: The first two weeks after the break will be critical because the Red Sox need him healthy and productive. Among all AL teams, only the New York Yankees (Alex Rodriguez) and Tampa Bay Rays (Evan Longoria) have had a better OPS from their third basemen than the Red Sox. Lowell has lost half a step in the field, but his hands remain among the best in baseball. The long-term question for the Red Sox is obvious: Can he hold up?

Julio Lugo (D-) -- With or without the game-winning hit in Baltimore, his offense has been decent. The problem, obviously, is that the defense has been a disaster. Among all big league shortstops with at least 200 innings at the position, Lugo has the lowest fielding percentage in baseball. (Read that again.) The Sox finally may be forced to make a decision on him in the coming days, and we all know it's time. One thing: It's not always his fault.

David Ortiz (C-) -- Strange season, eh? At his lowest point, on June 2, Ortiz was batting .186 with one home run and 18 RBIs and a .566 OPS in 47 games. Since that time, in 34 games, he leads the Red Sox in home runs (11), RBIs (29), and OPS (1.011) while looking very much like the Big Papi of old. One good month does not undo two positively terrible ones, but Ortiz certainly is getting there. Looks like this could be a respectable year after all.

Dustin Pedroia (A-) -- The reigning American League MVP hasn't hit for quite the same power he did a year ago, though some of that has to do with the way teams are pitching him. Especially at Fenway Park, few dare to venture to the inner half of the plate against him. Still, Pedroia has been a catalyst for these Sox and ranks among the league leaders in runs, doubles, and hits. As usual, the defense has been rock solid. The love affair continues.

Jason Varitek (B+) -- Know where the Red Sox ranked last season among the 30 big league clubs in OPS from their catchers? That would be 26th (and 13th in the AL). Know where they rank this year? Fifth (and third). Varitek isn't quite the All-Star catcher who backstopped this team at the height of his career, but he's had a nice first half while giving the Red Sox more from the position than just about any team in baseball. Nice comeback. Nice story.

Kevin Youkilis (A-) -- Factoring in his stint on the disabled list, here's what his numbers project to over 162 games: 35 home runs, 116 RBIs and 123 runs scored -- and those come despite a recent stretch during which he batted .194 over the span of 28 games. Now Youkilis looks like he's getting hot again -- all while shuttling between first base and third base effortlessly. With a good second half, he will be in the thick of the MVP voting again.

INCOMPLETE -- Aaron Bates, Dusty Brown, Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every, Jed Lowrie, Gil Velzaquez.


PITCHERS

Daniel Bard (B+) -- Can't you just see the confidence growing? After getting knocked around by the Phillies on June 14, Bard has 12 strikeouts and three walks while allowing just six hits (all singles) in his last eight appearances covering 10 innings. There has been some indication recently that Terry Francona may start using him in more important situations, which speaks volumes. If this kid gets it rolling, a very good bullpen will get even better.

Josh Beckett (A) -- After a shaky month to start the year -- Beckett had a 7.22 ERA at the end of April -- the last 13 starts have been sterling. During that time, Beckett is 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA while limiting opponents to a .204 batting average. He has been everything an ace is supposed to be -- and he has been healthy, which can only make you wonder what might have been in October 2008. With any luck, of course, the Sox will get to find out this year.

Manny Delcarmen (A-) -- Since the start of last season, there are just 17 relievers in baseball who have pitched at least 100 innings and maintained an ERA of 3.00 or better -- and the Red Sox have four of them. Along with Jonathan Papelbon (of course), Hideki Okajima, and Ramon Ramirez, Delcarmen is in that group. Maybe he's more of a middle man than a true setup guy, but the results generally have been good. And like the others, he has proven durable, too.

Jon Lester (B+) -- His struggles lasted about two weeks longer than Beckett's -- Lester had a 6.51 ERA on May 15 -- but what has happened since has been nearly Pedro-esque. In his last 10 outings, Lester is 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 67 innings, the latter of which translates into 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Don't look now, but the Red Sox may have themselves the best lefthander in baseball.

Javier Lopez (F) -- OK, after a solid 2008, the early part of 2009 was a disaster and earned him a demotion. Lopez got used in some situations out of desperation -- he really isn't suited to face righthanded batters -- but he also allowed lefties to bat .429 against him with a 1.110 OPS. Still, in case anyone hasn't noticed, much of the damage against the Sox bullpen of late has been done by lefthanded batters. This team really could use a lefthanded specialist.

Justin Masterson (C-) -- What we have here, for lack of a better word, is a bit of a regression. Masterson was one of the keys to the bullpen last season, but recently he has looked like the most vulnerable reliever on the team. His problems against lefties are growing -- a .314 average, .370 OBP and .832 OPS -- and he's been a big part of recent bullpen meltdowns against Baltimore and Kansas City. These are probably just growing pains, but watch closely.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (F) -- However you want to slice it, Matsuzaka's 2009 season has been nothing short of a train wreck. In his eight starts, Matsuzaka went 1-5 and the Red Sox went 2-6. (Overall, the No. 3 spot in the rotation has produced a 6-12 record; the Sox are otherwise 47-22.) In 35 innings, he allowed an astonishing 78 baserunners. Let's hope this is all the result of a fatigued shoulder -- and not the sign of dwindling effectiveness.

Hideki Okajima (A-) -- Take away one wretched outing in the 11-10 implosion at Baltimore on June 30, and Okajima has a 2.17 ERA over the balance of the first half. Since the start of 2007 season, Okajima ranks in top 10 of all major league relievers in ERA (minimum of 150 innings). The point? Don't take this guy for granted. He's durable, reliable, and effective against both lefthanders and righthanders. Any team would love to have him.

Jonathan Papelbon (A-) -- OK, fine, so the performances have not been quite as pleasing to the eye as those in years past. We all have seen some slippage here. That said, Papelbon looked as sharp as he has all year during Friday night's 1-0 win over the Royals and he remains one of the truly dominating closers in baseball. As worrisome as some of his outings have been this year, ask yourself this: What would the Red Sox do if he were lost for any period of time?

Brad Penny (B) -- Expectations make all the difference here, but after a horrid April (8.66 ERA), Penny has settled into that No. 5 role quite nicely, posting a 3.79 ERA. Sure, the Red Sox would love to see him go a little deeper into games, but at the back end of the rotation, his primary responsibility is to give them a chance to win. He's done that. As Josh Beckett said, when you get right down to it, how many teams have five starters better than this guy?

Ramon Ramirez (A-) -- Ramirez has hit a wall lately -- he has a 5.02 ERA in his last 16 games -- but don't kid yourself. He's been one of the best setup men in baseball. Since the start of last season, in fact, only five relievers in the game (minimum of 100 innings) have an ERA lower than Ramirez' 2.53 -- and one of them is Jonathan Papelbon. In the Boston bullpen, nobody needs the All-Star break more -- and nobody is more deserving of time off.

Takashi Saito (B-) -- There was lots of hype when the Red Sox picked him up to be their third-day closer, but let's be honest. This hasn't turned out quite as the Sox hoped. In part because the Sox bullpen has been healthy Saito hasn't really been employed in any situations of consequence. The Sox are just 14-17 when he pitches, which tells you that Terry Francona is more comfortable using him when the team is behind. Overall, he's been fine. But he's expendable.

Tim Wakefield (A-) -- Went back and looked at the game logs, and he had two real clunkers: at the Angels on May 13 and at Toronto on May 29. Excluding those, Wakefield went 11-1 with a 3.53 ERA. Not bad for a 42-year-old guy, eh? Of course, all of the starts count and we cannot pick and choose, but the bottom line is that Wakefield already has won more games than he did during all of 2008. As Terry Francona says, he always seems to give the Sox a chance.

John Smoltz (C+) -- A bad one, a good one, a bad one, a good one. Sounds a little like the Curt Schilling of 2007, no? Remember, Smoltz is here for late August, September, and October, and the Red Sox are building him up with that in mind. There are going to be some inconsistencies along the way, but the club can afford that given the depth of its staff and rotation. Starting after the break, we should look for slow, steady improvement. The goal is to peak late.

INCOMPLETE - Michael Bowden, Hunter Jones.

MANAGER

Terry Francona (A) -- Well, here we are again, and the Red Sox are atop the division, looking like the class of the American League. There have been no flare-ups to speak of. The pitching staff has been handled well. Francona is in the first year of a three-year contract extension -- and he's the first manager in Boston to begin a sixth season in roughly 60 years. Some of us never thought this was possible, but have we reached the point where the manager has New England's complete confidence?

GENERAL MANAGER

Theo Epstein (A) -- His biggest test has yet to come -- that would be the trading deadline -- but let's examine his offseason moves: Smoltz, Penny, Ramirez, Green, Baldelli, Kotsay; meanwhile, Junichi Tazawa is tearing it up in the minors. The Mark Teixeira failure could have long-term implications -- was that his fault or ownership's? -- but Theo has scored big on the lesser investments. Now all he has to do is sign Jason Bay. After all, what are the alternatives?

With regard to Roy Halladay, to paraphrase former Sox general manager Lou Gorman, the question is obvious:

Where in the name of Willie McGee would they put him?

Four games from the All-Star break and 22 days from the July 31 trading deadline, the Red Sox are now 51-33 in the wake of last night’s 5-4 win over the Oakland A’s at Fenway Park. With a victory over the Kansas City Royals tonight, the Sox could climb to a season-high 19 games over .500. The Red Sox may have the deepest pitching staff in team history, last night’s win giving No. 4 starter Tim Wakefield more victories than any other pitcher in the American League.

By now, you know that Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi indicated earlier this week that he would entertain trade discussions on ace Roy Halladay, who has more wins than any pitcher in baseball since the start of the 2002 season to go also with the best winning percentage (.707). Since the start of the 2006 campaign, Halladay has more complete games (23) than any pitcher in baseball and has thrown more innings (807 1/3) than anyone but CC Sabathia (808 1/3). Halladay has one career Cy Young Award (2003) and has finished in the top five of the voting on four occasions.

His appeal is obvious, and if the Red Sox wanted to make a deal for Halladay today, they could.

But they won’t.

Let’s start this discussion with an obvious truth: Because of the depth of their farm system, their financial resources, and their status as the most successful team in baseball this millennium, the Red Sox can trade for just about any player they want. It is a question of how much they want to give up. No team in baseball currently can match the Red Sox’ combination of financial wealth and minor-league talent, which is a credit to the team’s baseball operation. Any time a marquee player becomes available, the Red Sox are part of the discussion.

Even when, as now, they have far greater needs (read: a hitter) than pitching.

As of late yesterday, the Sox had yet to inquire with the Jays about the price for Halladay. Two days ago, a baseball source indicated that Toronto officials would be shocked if the Sox met their demands for the player. Everyone in the game knows that the Sox love their prospects and their farm system, and they also know that the Sox are built for the long haul as a result of it.

Really, haven’t we been here before? Nearly two years ago, after the Sox won the 2007 World Series, Halladay was available, too, in a sense. The only difference was that his name was actually Johan Santana. The Sox engaged in discussions with the Minnesota Twins -- just enough, but not too much -- to jack the price for Santana’s suitors. In the process, the Sox were either going to keep Santana from going to the Yankees entirely or ensure that New York sacrificed its primary pitching prospects in order to get him.

In the end, Santana went to the Mets. By late October of last year, neither New York team had qualified for the postseason while the Red Sox came within one win of a third World Series appearance in five years.

In the short term, there is no question that Halladay could dramatically impact the balance of power in any playoff race. He is that good. According to one modern media item out of St. Louis today -- OK, it was a tweet from longtime baseball reporter Joe Strauss -- one Cards official suggested the team would be willing to let the Jays pick any five players from their minor league system for Halladay. While that may be construed as nothing more than hyperbole, consider that aces like Bartolo Colon (from Cleveland to Montreal in 2002 for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips) and Santana have commanded as many as three or four top-level prospects. Using that as an outline, the cost for the Red Sox would be a package that might include a combination of at least three players from the group of Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, and Lars Anderson, among others.

Some of us (guesses anyone?) would be more than willing to make a trade like that. To this point in his career, Epstein has all but formally identified those folks as fools.

If, indeed, the past is prelude, ask yourself this: What top-level prospect has Epstein ever traded? Freddy Sanchez was a Dan Duquette draft pick who went in the Jeff Suppan deal in 2003 -- and Epstein still regrets that one. David Murphy? The Red Sox saw him as an extra outfielder stacked behind, among others, Jacoby Ellsbury. Hanley Ramirez might still with the club if Epstein had not resigned following the 2005 season. Craig Hansen had long since become a bust when he went in the Jason Bay deal.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have drafted and developed Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, and Justin Masterson, to name a few. For all of the talk in recent years about how the Patriots have rarely been hurt by a player they elected to cut free, the same effectively could be said for the Red Sox with regard to their young players.

In the case of Halladay, in particular, there is a great deal to consider. At the moment, he is signed only for this year ($14.25 million salary) and next year ($15.75). With free agency looming, any kind of extension for him would fall in the territory of Sabathia and Santana, each of whom is making in the vicinity of $23 million a year. Then there is the matter of his age. Halladay will turn 33 at the start of next season, and the Sox typically have avoided making any type of major investment in pitchers in their 30s.

Again, let’s look at the past. When the Red Sox signed Lester, Beckett, and Daisuke Matzuaka to long-term deals, all of those players were in their mid-20s. As part of the trade negotiations, Curt Schilling got a two-year extension. Ever since signing Matt Clement to a three-year, $25.5 million deal that proved to be a flop -- even that might not be regarded as a major investment -- Epstein has spent more time investing in one- or two-year projects like John Smoltz, David Wells, Brad Penny, and Wade Miller (remember him?) than in anyone who would command a great percentage of the payroll.

The bottom line is that a guy like Halladay represents everything Epstein would run from because he would require both the forfeiture of significant talent and a colossal financial investment. That’s a lot of risk.

During their time as the operators of the Red Sox, Epstein and his staff have had their share of luck, too. They tried to give away Manny Ramirez and failed. Then they nearly acquired Alex Rodriguez. They had David Ortiz behind Jeremy Giambi, for goodness sake, and pursued, among others, Carl Pavano and Jose Contreras. Again, Epstein probably wouldn’t have made the Beckett deal, though he did sign him to a new contract.

If any or all those things break differently, we might look at the Red Sox far more differently today.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox are where they are today because of good talent and shrewd management, not necessarily in that order. No one player is valued too greatly. A productive farm system is clearly the best way to make consistent runs at championships. Augmented with free agency and trade acquisitions -- and not the other way around -- the Red Sox should be title contenders for years to come.

Halladay? Many of us would love to see him in a Boston uniform, a feeling that will morph to frustration if Halladay ends up with the Yankees. Epstein knows this as well as anyone. He also knows that the Red Sox have far more to consider than just the 2009 season.

Which is why you should be shocked if he ever made this trade.

A year ago at this time, Jacoby Ellsbury had long since begun his descent. Today, the man with the jets appears to have found his cruising altitude.

And so what the Red Sox have, in a manner of speaking, is baseball’s answer to The Concorde.

"I couldn’t be happier with him," Red Sox batting coach Dave Magadan said last night of Ellsbury, who went 2 for 3 with a double, stolen base, and run scored in the Sox’ 5-2 win over the Oakland Athletics. "Over the last five weeks especially, I think he really feels like he’s a dangerous hitter. It’s in there. He’s got it in him."

Now, on a nightly basis, it is starting to come out.

The Red Sox have landed on their feet again, folks. Last winter, Coco Crisp went to Kansas City for the rubber-armed Ramon Ramirez, thrusting Ellsbury into center field on a full-time basis. Now Crisp is out with a season-ending shoulder injury and Ellsbury is morphing into a consistent (key word there) everyday player, while Ramirez has become a key component in what looks to be the best and deepest bullpen in the major leagues.

The kicker? Crisp is being paid $5.75 million this season and batted just .228 (with a .714 OPS) before the injury. The Royals now hold an $8.8 million option on a player with a considerable rehabilitation in front of him, suggesting that Crisp might very well be a free agent come November and that the Royals gave up Ramirez for someone who wore the Kansas City uniform for a mere 49 games.

By contrast, the future looks brighter than ever for Ellsbury, who has been the most consistent Red Sox performer this year. Since going 5 for 10 over a span of two games from April 20-22, Ellsbury’s average has not dipped below .270. Since May 5, he has remained between .291 and .303, the latter of which is his team-leading average today. Ellsbury has run down balls in the outfield and created havoc on the bases, and he has the kind of impact on the Boston lineup that most everyone knew he could have.

Try this on for size: Last night, when Ellsbury stepped on home plate with the Red Sox’ fifth and final run in the bottom of the sixth inning, it marked the 100th game in which he has scored since the start of last season. The Red Sox are 76-24 in those contests, including 25-7 this year. (In those games, Ellsbury has batted .401 with 142 runs while going 64 of 68 in steal attempts.) Of the last 12 games in which Ellsbury has scored at least once, including last night, the Sox are 11-1, the loss coming in last week’s aberrational 11-10 loss at Baltimore that featured a historic bullpen meltdown.

Forget the leadoff spot. If Ellsbury can do this kind of consistent damage from the bottom third of the lineup, it gives the Red Sox a dimension that they did not previously possess. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the most underrated quality in baseball is the ability to contribute consistently on a day-to-day basis without suffering so badly in any one area that you become a liability.

"He’s not just a good young player. He’s a good player,’’ said Sox manager Terry Francona, speaking to Ellsbury’s maturity as a hitter. "He’s played a lot. He’s out there everyday and understanding his responsibility. He’s done a good job."

Last year? Not so much. After the whirlwind conclusion to 2007, Ellsbury got off to a terrific start in 2008. On May 23, in 45 games, Ellsbury was batting .297 with 37 runs scored, an .826 OPS and 19 steals. After that, he batted .242 with a mere 13 walks in his next 76 games. Ellsbury went from a budding Johnny Damon to a bumbling Johnny from Burger King. Like most things involving him, it all happened fast.

Late last year and early this one, Magadan worked with Ellsbury on his most obvious problem: getting to the fastball consistently. Because Ellsbury hit with a high leg kick, he frequently was late getting the ball, mostly because he was late in getting his foot planted and being in what Magadan likes to call -- fittingly, in this case -- the "launch position.’’

Late last season, the coach and player all but eliminated Ellsbury’s leg kick, leading to a season-ending 24-game stretch during which Ellsbury batted .369. He subsequently went a disappointing 6 for 32 in the postseason and 0 for 14 in the American League Championship Series. This year, with a full offseason and spring training behind him, Ellsbury has settled on a relatively small kick that has satisfied both him and Magadan -- this is what players mean when they speak of making "adjustments’’ -- leading to the kind of results that have made Ellsbury a menace to other clubs.

The power? The Red Sox believe that will come -- Ellsbury is slugging .410 this year. Were one to add Ellsbury’s steals (36) to his total bases (130) -- aren’t those really one and the same? -- his slugging percentage would jump to .524, the kind of number that, coupled with his defensive skills and current average, would make him one of the elite players in baseball.

"He’s got talent and he works hard," Francona said. "You don’t see too many players, regardless of their age, hit .280 or .300 the whole year. There are a lot of ups and downs through the course of the year."

Nonetheless, more than halfway through the 2009 season, Ellsbury seems to have found a comfortable, consistent level.

In retrospect, maybe this homestand isn’t going to be such a cakewalk after all. With six games to go until the All-Star break, the Red Sox suddenly seem to be holding on for dear life.

"We’ve not gotten a ton of offense [lately],’’ Red Sox manager Terry Francona said following his club’s 6-0 loss to the Oakland A’s last night at Fenway Park. "You don’t see too many teams win 125-130 games. We’ve just got to fight through it. We just haven’t gotten on track swinging the bat real well.’’

True enough.

Meanwhile, the American League playoff races are starting to get interesting again.

True confession: When the Red Sox left Baltimore last week following Wednesday’s dramatic come-from-behind victory, some of us -- foolishly, in hindsight -- thought the final homestand before the All-Star break would be tantamount to senior week. The Sox could show up drunk on Sunday and still graduate. All that stood between the Sox and, say, a 55-33 record at intermission was a 7-3 stroll through the mudroom that contained the Mariners, A’s, and Royals.

Of course, that was before the Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Seattle -- Boston’s first series loss since June 5-7 against Texas -- and lost last night’s series opener to Koufaxian lefthander Brett Anderson. Minus Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, and even Jeff Bailey -- who ever thought we’d be saying that -- the Sox managed just two hits and struck out nine times with a lineup that featured Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Rocco Baldelli, and Aaron Bates.

Not exactly the names Theo Epstein had on his menu last winter, eh?

Entering tonight’s affair behind ace Josh Beckett, the Sox are a completely illogical 6-13 against the AL West this season, going winless in six series pending the outcome of the current three-game set against the A’s. (They are 15-4-2 in series against everyone else.) Peerless gunslingers against most everyone in baseball, the Sox turn into the gang that couldn’t shoot straight when venturing into the new West.

So what is it? Are the Sox simply banged up? Are they looking ahead to a well-deserved vacation? Are they bored?

All of the above?

"I don’t see that happening here,’’ Francona said when asked if the Sox might have been taking anything for granted of late. "I think guys get excited having a few days off, but I don’t see that as a problem.’’

Nor should he. Nothing in recent history suggests that the Red Sox are the type of team to suffer worrisome lapses. Generally speaking, the Sox show up for work every day and take care of business against both the good teams and bad ones. Before last night’s game, despite an obvious need for a righthanded hitter -- this was true even before Bates checked in -- the Sox had an 18-10 record against lefthanded starters, the best record in the American League.

Nonetheless, with regard to the games against the AL West, offense has been the single greatest issue. In the 19 games against AL West clubs this year, the Sox have batted a woeful .225 and managed just 4.1 runs per game; the rest of the time, they’ve hit .280 and put up an average of 5.5 runs per contest. Were every AL club like the Seattle Mariners, who entered last night leading the league in pitching, such a discrepancy would be entirely understandable. But of the A’s, Rangers, and Angels, not a single one of them ranks in the top half of the league in pitching.

For those of us watching from the outside, at a time like this, nothing could be more maddening.

Whether there will be any long-term ramifications from all of this is unlikely, but in the interim, know this: a Red Sox division lead that sat at a spongy 5 games two weeks ago has been whittled to 1. Meanwhile, Boston’s lead over the AL wild-card leader has shrunk from 6 games to 3 1/2. As things stand, the Angels, Rangers, or Mariners could end up in the thick of wild-card contention, and the Sox are 5-10 against those clubs this season with six games remaining against the Rangers (all in Texas) and only three more against the Angels (in Boston).

Obviously, there is still a great deal of baseball to be played this season, and we have learned in recent years (and in other sports) that the toughest part of any season can be that time surrounding the All-Star break and the trading deadline, when routines and rosters are inevitably disrupted. It happened to the Bruins this year. It happened to the Red Sox last year. It can happen to most any team that has something to play for every night, particularly clubs with leads in the standings and that may be devoid of any urgency.

In the end, is there anything wrong with the Red Sox at the moment, beyond a couple of injuries?

Probably not.

But what could have and should have been an easy week-and-a-half has become a surprising grind, and the Red Sox need to remind themselves that there are still six games to go.

And so, just as Nomar Garciaparra makes his return, Rasheed Wallace is preparing for his arrival. The story lines intersect. Boston’s past and present are traveling along their respective courses offering nothing more than a brief wave, like ships passing in the night.

Welcome back to Boston, Nomah. We hope you still recognize the place. The Red Sox are now two-time World Series champions and Logan Airport is a final destination more than an initial port of departure. Wallace is only the latest example. From Corey Dillon to Randy Moss to Kevin Garnett and John Smoltz, the greatest athletes in America now come here for redemption, for one final chance to win, for the right to climb aboard the duck boats and negotiate their way through the nooks and crannies of Sportstown, USA.

Imagine that.

"Once [Wallace] had a chance to reflect on everything, and realizing what his objectives are, he just decided this was the best fit for him, all the way around," agent Bill Strickland, who represents Wallace, told reporters yesterday about his client’s decision to join the Celtics. "He has always wanted to be on a team that plays with a team effort, and Boston won the championship with a team like that. Boston has three potential Hall of Famers -- Rasheed has played with a lot of talent, but not with a concentration of talent like this."

And then there was this: "The group that came in -- Danny [Ainge] and everyone -- was quite thorough in bringing to his attention some things he already understood. He gained a greater appreciation for the fans in Boston and it will be an interesting change, to have them cheering for him instead of booing. …He was more concerned with the team, but the organization showed a lot of class. They came in and made him feel comfortable."

Of course, that is how it now works here, a place of which outsiders once steered clear while sensing the trepidation and uneasiness. You can’t win in Boston. It’s just too darned hard. Men like Joey Galloway and Sam Cassell and Mark Kotsay now serve as reminders of how enjoyable it can be to play here … just as Garciaparra was (is?) a reminder of Boston’s suffocating, frustrating past.

Really, is there a player in all of sports who more crisply illustrates the change in Red Sox culture than the man who was to be their next Ted Williams? Garciaparra played 7 1/2 seasons here, and he played the majority of them brilliantly. He won a Rookie of the Year Award and two batting titles. He finished second in the 1998 American League Most Valuable Player Award balloting. And yet Garciaparra’s career in Boston will be remembered as much for the failed contract negotiations and his apparent dissatisfaction with the organization and media, obstacles he was never quite able to overcome for whatever reasons.

The fans? Garciaparra generally embraced them, and they returned the favor. They are likely to embrace him tonight when he returns to Fenway for the first time as a member of the opposing team. But by coincidence or circumstance, the Red Sox changed forever the day they traded Garciaparra to the Chicago Cubs, an event that that has proven even more cataclysmic over time.

"I wanted us to discuss the issue that we all seemed to be avoiding," Sox president Larry Lucchino said in Dan Shaughnessy’s "Reversing the Curse" of a meeting with Garciaparra and agent Arn Tellem that took place just days before the Sox elected to trade the face of their franchise.

"We needed to talk about how unhappy Nomar was. Why was he still so [ticked]? Was there anything that could be done to change his mental state of mind, his approach to the organization, the city, and the game? We were contemplating the possibility of trading him, and we wanted to see if there was any way to take steps within our organization to make life better. Try to bring him back into the fold. The meeting lasted just about 45 minutes, and at the end of it, we basically concluded there was no way we were going to have a happy Nomar Garciaparra for the last couple of months of the season. There was no way to improve the situation. It wasn’t a constructive session. What he told us was that the media was bothering him. He said we didn’t appreciate it how difficult it was to play here. He told us, 'I play three games every night. There’s the media before the game, then there’s the game, which is fun, then there’s the media after the game.’ He told us that the reason teams in Boston fade is because of the stress and strain brought on by the media. I tried to bring the conversation back to Nomar’s contract or trade rumors, but he was more focused on the symptomatic problems of playing in Boston. He didn’t want to talk about himself and his own situation."

Roughly a week later, the Red Sox traded Garciaparra to the Chicago Cubs in the four-team deal that brought Orlando Cabrera (from Montreal) and Doug Mientkiewicz (from Minnesota) to Boston. Three months later, the Sox were World Series champions for the first time in 86 years. Garciaparra ultimately re-signed with the Cubs on a one-year deal and earned roughly $35 million in salary from 2005-08. He could have had a four-year, $60 million contract had he chosen to remain with the Red Sox.

During that same period of time, Garciaparra had 16 postseason at-bats, all with the Dodgers. He has never played in the World Series. He has never really been the same player since he left Boston and the Red Sox have never really been the same organization, though the Boston baseball franchise clearly has changed for the better.

Amid all of this, the volatile Wallace has revealed his desire to come to Boston, an ironic development if ever there was one. Like Moss or Dillon, Wallace comes to Boston with certain questions about his emotional maturity. He also comes with positively no questions about his ability. On the floor, Wallace is the perfect fit for these Celtics, a talented big man who can take much of the burden off Garnett (don’t forget about those knees) and play at both ends of the floor. Roughly two years after Ainge convinced Garnett to come to Boston, Wallace now falls in line behind Cassell, P.J. Brown, and Stephon Marbury as de facto Garnett disciples. Not so long ago, the thought of any of those players coming to Boston would have been nothing more than a fantasy.

As for Garciaparra, he is now a part-time player for an A’s team going nowhere, and there is no way of knowing whether he will be in the starting lineup tonight. In a perfect world, he would bat in the top of the very first inning. Garciaparra would stride from the on-deck circle toward the plate as his name is announced to the Fenway Park crowd, and he would receive a thunderous, appreciative ovation from yet another sellout. And then, having briefly engaged his past, Garciaparra would step into the batter’s box to re-enter the present.

And then, fittingly, he would face John Smoltz.

From here to the All-Star break, there are 10 games to play for the Red Sox. All of them will take place at Fenway Park. The opponents have been outscored by a combined 110 runs this season, while going a whopping 21 games under .500.

Clearly, now is not the time for Boston to let up.

Possessors of the best record in the American League and a 20-8 record beginning May 31, the Red Sox will return home tomorrow for the opener of a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners. After that, Nomar Garciaparra and the Oakland A’s will come to town for three games. After that, it’s the Kansas City Royals for four, a series in which the Sox already may have caught a break because they are scheduled to miss Zack Greinke.

Repeat: The Royals will be here for four days and the only KC starter whom the Sox are in line to bypass is the man in line to start the All-Star Game. Greinke is due to start Friday (vs. the White Sox) and Wednesday (at Detroit). This comes after a stretch earlier this season during which the Sox twice side-stepped Toronto’s Roy Halladay while somehow avoiding Detroit’s Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, among others.

The moral of the story? It’s better to be lucky than good, but it’s best to be both.

Here is a preview of the homestand, broken down by opponent:

SEATTLE MARINERS (July 3-5)

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Sox in Seattle in mid-May, a series that began with Jon Lester’s one-inning meltdown and ended with a memorable throwing error by shortstop Nick Green. The Red Sox are pitching much better now than they were then and, as we all know, they are a completely different team at Fenway Park, where they thus far have posted the best record in the league.

While the Sox will send Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and Jon Lester to the mound in this series, the Mariners will counter with Hernandez, Garret Olson, and Brandon Morrow. Hernandez (8-3, 2.54) has never allowed a run in two career starts at Fenway (2-0, 0.00), and he is one of the truly gifted young pitchers in the game. Thanks largely to Hernandez and a bullpen that ranks second to the Red Sox (3.18) in the majors with a 3.29 ERA, the Mariners have hovered near .500 despite scoring the fewest runs in the American League and ranking 29th in the majors in runs scored.

As a result, all signs this weekend point to low-scoring, relatively close games -- the scores in May were 4-5, 5-3, 2-3 -- especially with Mike Lowell absent from the Boston lineup and Jason Bay struggling. Given the strength of the respective bullpens, the team scoring first will likely possess a big advantage. On Saturday and Sunday, especially, the Red Sox would be well-served to score against the Seattle starters and take control of the games early.

OAKLAND A’S (July 6-8)

In a series that will mark Nomar Garciaparra’s first trip to Boston since the landmark 2004 trade that shipped him to the Chicago Cubs, the Red Sox look to have a big advantage. At the moment, the A’s have the second-worst record in the league and, like the Mariners, a dreadful offense. In the Mariners, A’s and Royals, in fact, the mighty Sox pitching staff will face the three worst offenses in the American League.

Entering this season, many believed the potential success of the A’s hinged on the performance of their young pitching staff, which actually has been quite decent. Gio Gonzalez (0-2, 7.27 ERA), Dallas Braden 6-7, 3.13), and Trevor Cahill (5-6, 4.23) are scheduled to face John Smoltz, Josh Beckett, and Wakefield in a series that again should be controlled by the pitchers.

For the A’s, offense has been a major problem. Despite picking up Jason Giambi, Garciaparra, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Holliday, Oakland ranks in the bottom three of the league in runs (12th), home runs (14th) and OPS (14th). That is likely to continue against a Red Sox pitching staff that is the deepest in baseball.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (July 9-12)

Along with an anemic offense, here is something else the Royals share with the Mariners and A’s: a wretched defense. Entering the final days of the first half, the Mariners have committed 59 errors, most in the league. The Royals (57) and A’s (54) are right on their heels, all three teams ranking among the bottom four in the AL in defense.

Should the Red Sox indeed miss Greinke, this four-game set could be a nothing more than a block party. Though the Royals rank ninth in the American League with a 4.30 team ERA, that figure balloons to 4.78 minus Greinke –- and that number would place the Royals among the bottom three teams in the league.

Get the picture? Take away Greinke and the Royals can’t pitch, hit, or field. In fact, when Greinke does not get a decision, the Royals are 23-41.

As any of the Red Sox would be eager to tell you, any type of lapse on their part would negate the many advantages they seem to possess entering the final homestand of the first half. Tuesday’s late-inning collapse in Baltimore is proof. But if the Sox can stay focused over these final 10 days, they could go into the All-Star break more than 20 games over .500 and with a firm grasp on a potential playoff spot, affording them invaluable margin for error approaching both the trading deadline and stretch runs.

As most everyone knows, the major league baseball season is like a golf tournament: you can’t win it on the first two days; you can only lose it. That said, as the Red Sox approach the cut with the weekend in mind, there are a few more birdies out there for them on the way back to the clubhouse.

Games like last night's are obvious flukes, baseball’s way of reminding us all that there are simply no guarantees. You have can have a nine-run lead. You can have the best bullpen in baseball. You can be entering the bottom of the seventh against the worst team in your division.

And you still could lose.

And so, if you’re Theo Epstein today in the wake of last night’s stunning 11-10 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, here is the message you take from the shocking result: hold onto your pitching. For the Orioles, last night’s outcome was akin to the winning lottery, albeit without the long-term implications. The Orioles are going nowhere this year. The Red Sox, on the other hand, currently look like the class of the American League -- if not all of baseball -- and most everyone else still wants what they have.

"We went through a period where I think we gave up 13 hits in two innings,’’ a disbelieving Terry Francona told reporters after last night’s game. "We just had no answer. We went through just about everybody. There were balls everywhere. ... When you give up 13 hits -- that was as bad as we’ve seen.’’

And, in all likelihood, it is far worse than anything else we will see again in this 2009 season.

This afternoon, the Red Sox will ask Josh Beckett to be their elixir in the wake of last night’s debacle, but that is not the only reason this game will be noteworthy. Today is July 1. The annual trading deadline is now precisely 30 days away. Baseball’s pretenders and contenders will veer away from one another in the coming weeks, and we all know the direction in which the Red Sox will be traveling. Once again, Boston will be among those at the very front of the pack aimed at October, eyeing a sixth trip to the postseason in the last seven years and, perhaps, a third World Series title since the start of 2004.

This club has many of the same concerns it did when it broke camp three months ago. David Ortiz has had two bad months and one good one. Shortstop remains a concern. Mike Lowell’s health is now up in the air. The Red Sox could probably use another hitter, with or without Lowell’s potential return, and their pitching staff remains the true strength of the team, top to bottom, from Beckett all the way through closer Jonathan Papelbon.

For this club, from the very beginning, the consistency and health of the positional players was a primary concern. How long could Lowell hold up? How consistent could Ortiz be? Were it not for the generally positive developments concerning Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek, and Nick Green, the Sox might be far closer to the middle of the pack than the front, a team regarded as having the kind of offensive flaws that could prove fatal.

But the pitching? Deep. Talented. Downright awesome, particularly in the bullpen. Last night does not change that. The only issues the Red Sox have had this season have come in that spot of the starting rotation -- let’s call it the No. 3 starter -- that might have belonged to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Between them, Matsuzaka, Justin Masterson, and John Smoltz have made 16 starts in that space, the Sox compiling a 5-11 record. The rest of the time, be it behind Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, or Brad Penny, the Sox are a sterling 42-19, a pace that would produce 112 victories over the course of a 162-game schedule.

In the coming weeks, Epstein obviously will have some decisions to make, many of them concerning the Boston offense. The only real concern is what Epstein is willing to pay. Epstein generally has guarded his prized prospects in recent years, something that is becoming increasingly difficult to criticize him for. Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Craig Hansen? Other teams have acquired them all. In the interim, Ellsbury, Lester, and Clay Buchholz, among others, remained under lock and key in Epstein’s safest place.

Somehow, thanks to the world titles and the productivity of the Boston farm system, Epstein has completely flipped the manner in which midseason trades are conducted. The Red Sox don’t need the veteran players so much as other teams might need Boston’s prospects. Certainly, other clubs need the Red Sox’ pitching. Where the trading deadline was once a time when contenders like the Red Sox might add players for a run at the world title, now it is a time for the Sox to see what they can get for their elite young players, particularly the pitchers.

So what should Epstein do now? He should wait. The only teams that might want pitchers from Boston’s big league staff are contenders, teams (like the Texas Rangers) that might want to fortify their bullpens for the stretch run. All in all, they have relatively little to offer. At this moment, why should the Red Sox improve someone else’s bullpen while worsening their own, particularly following a game like last night’s, a reminder of just how fortunate the Red Sox have been to have all of their relievers firing on all cylinders all year long.

So the Red Sox had an ugly loss last night. Big deal. The Sox still have more pitching than two average big league clubs combined. If one of them wants to pay out the nose for a Michael Bowden or even a Buchholz, Epstein should listen. If no one does, Epstein should keep what he has, despite last night, and keep taking his chances.

With pitching, after all, you can never have too much.

Editor's note: This was published a few hours before Mike Lowell was placed on the 15-day disabled list by the Red Sox.

On Sunday night, while the rest of the Red Sox were traveling from Atlanta to Baltimore, Mike Lowell began the trip back to Boston. Lowell journeyed with director of baseball operations Brian O'Halloran from Turner Field to Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, where the flights to Logan Airport were almost universally delayed.

Today, maybe it is only fitting that the Red Sox are currently in a holding pattern with regard to their dignified third baseman.

While the Red Sox were preparing for last night's series opener with the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards -- a game the Sox later won, 4-0 -- Lowell yesterday had a procedure that the Red Sox are hoping will be a cure-all for Lowell's ongoing hip issues. Manager Terry Francona revealed late yesterday that Lowell had fluid drained from his hip in addition to getting an injection of Synvisc, a gelatinous lubricant that has become to human joints what WD-40 is to the squeaky wheel.

"Worst-case scenario, he goes on the DL -- just to buy us a couple weeks where he can kind of get a second wind for the second part of the season," Francona informed reporters yesterday afternoon. "We can also wait a few days and then just let him play. That's OK, too. We're just kind of in a waiting mode. We'll see. I think we have the ability to wait a couple days."

As such, inquiring minds want to know:

Will a trip to the disabled list solve most of Lowell's problems? Are there bigger concerns here? And if Lowell reaches a point, like last season, where his hip significantly affects his productivity, what would the Red Sox do?

A look at possible solutions and outcomes, beginning with:

• Lowell himself. For a man initially regarded as a sidecar in the Josh Beckett deal, Lowell has proven quite productive during his time in Boston. During Lowell's first three years here, the Red Sox ranked seventh in baseball in OPS from their third basemen. The teams ahead of them included the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, and Braves, which translates into a list of players that includes Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Chipper Jones.

  Of that group, only Rodriguez plays in the American League.

  What this means, in short, is that the Red Sox have an advantage over virtually every team in the league at third base. That remained true through the first half of last year, when Lowell batted .301 with 57 RBIs in his first 78 games. Then came the hip issues that ultimately helped trigger the arrival of Mark Kotsay, the pursuit of Mark Teixeira, and the necessity to utilize Kevin Youkilis more frequently at third base.

  Thus far, the Red Sox have given every indication that Lowell's current hip issues can be managed, that he has no additional structural issues that would prevent him from being a productive player. And yet, since the start of June, Lowell is batting .206 with a mere three extra-base hits and a .595 OPS in his last 19 games, the kind of dropoff that cannot help but evoke comparisons to the second half of last year.

  Of course, every player has slumps during a season. As Francona said, the only way to determine the severity of this issue is to wait, particularly with a man who turned 35 in February.

• Kotsay and Youkilis. At the moment, the easy fix for the Red Sox is to do precisely what they did last night, when Youkilis started at third base and Kotsay started at first. This is the real benefit of having a player like Kotsay, a steady, sound and proven everyday player before arriving in Boston last year. Youkilis likes to play third base, anyway, and while Kotsay does not possess Lowell's power or run-producing capability, he has every bit of the grinder's mentality and work ethic.

  The Sox could do a heck of a lot worse.

  With regard to Kotsay, the biggest question concerns the impact on the Boston lineup, particularly against lefthanded pitching. Though Kotsay's career numbers against righties and lefties are reasonably balanced for a lefthanded hitter, there was a pronounced shift last season, when he had a .777 OPS against righthanders, a .629 OPS against lefties. So far this year, he has had just eight plate appearances against lefthanded pitching, suggesting that Francona is far more comfortable employing him against righties.

  Obviously, there are far more righthanded pitchers than lefthanded ones. But if Lowell is lost for any significant length of time, the Red Sox simultaneously become more vulnerable against lefthanded pitching while losing the benefit of a deep bench. Situationally, against righties or lefties, that could hurt them in the late innings of games, which brings us to ...

• Nick Green and Jed Lowrie. Given the performance of the former, the Red Sox may have very palatable options when the latter comes off the disabled list. So far this season, among the 14 American League shortstops with at least 150 plate appearances, Green ranks fifth in OPS behind only Jason Bartlett, Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro, and Brendan Harris. (Interestingly, all but Harris are in the AL East.) As for his defense, which was erratic early in the season, Green has made just one error since May 23 while posting the seventh-best fielding percentage in baseball among shortstops to have started at least 20 games during that span.

  If Green can maintain a reasonably similar pace offensively and defensively, Lowrie could provide the Sox with another key option at third base, particularly against lefthanded pitching. In his (very) brief major league career, the switch-hitting Lowrie has a .914 OPS against lefthanded pitching, making him a very nice complement to Kotsay. (He has been a much better hitter from the right side, with more power, during his minor-league career as well.) He is also a sure-handed fielder.

  Though the Red Sox obviously would prefer to have a set lineup including Lowell every day, Green's impressive play and Lowrie's history against lefthanded pitching could allow Francona to employ a rotation of Kotsay, Green, and Lowrie for two positions -- Youkilis remains in the lineup regardless of whether he is at first or third -- while maximizing the strengths of each player. But if there is a breakdown in that system, the Red Sox could be forced to explore other options, including potentially risky ones like a ...

• Big trade. With regard to this sort of thing, Sox general manager Theo Epstein generally has been cautious, at least with regard to the players he has acquired. In 2004, of course, he dealt away Nomar Garciaparra. Last year, a deal that simultaneously brought Jason Bay to Boston, he cast off Manny Ramirez. A deal like the latter would qualify as a big move now, though the Sox would be trading away prospects rather than a centerpiece of their lineup.

  So, who are the kinds of players Epstein could look into? Colorado Rockies third baseman Garret Atkins, 29, has been rumored to be available for some time, and he recently has started to hit (17 for 41 in his last 14 games, albeit without much power) in what otherwise has been a dreadful season. Washington Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson is available, and the fact that he hits lefthanded might be appealing given the early-season struggles of David Ortiz. (This would make Youkilis a full-time third baseman.)

  If the Sox want to make a major deal, they might not have the luxury of being too picky about whether to pursue a lefthanded hitter or righthanded hitter. (Ideally, it would be best to replace Lowell with another righty.) The problem is that virtually every relatively major trade comes with increased risk, be it in the form of an underachieving player (like Atkins) or a potential free agent (like Johnson). The other alternative is take on a player with a sizable contract, something the Red Sox generally have avoided at all costs (Todd Helton, Michael Young, etc.).

  Of course, between now and July 31, the trade market could change significantly. Because the Rockies currently are in contention in the socialistic National League, a player like Atkins currently might be less available than he was, say, a month ago. The good news is that the Red Sox have the best record in the American League and ample resources, which will allow Epstein the luxury of waiting -- there's that word again -- until the final days of July. By then, the Red Sox should have a much better read on their needs, be it at third base or anywhere else. And by then, too, the trade market could include people like Adrian Beltre or Joe Crede, though it is debatable whether either would tickle the Red Sox' fancy.

  In the end, big trades always are harder to make. That means the Sox may have to explore a ...

• Lesser deal. Ultimately, the magnitude of a trade is subjective. Who qualifies as a major acquisition? Who qualifies as a minor one? The advantage of being the Red Sox in this day and age is the Sox can make most any deal they want because they have the money to take on contracts and the prospects to acquire elite talent. Internally, the only real issue at the moment is that the Sox don't necessarily have a big-time hitter ready to make the jump to the major leagues, which is why someone like Lars Anderson really isn't an option to replace Lowell at this point.

  As a result, Epstein ultimately may settle on making an acquisition similar to the one that delivered Kotsay last season. A perfect fit for the club might have been Mark DeRosa, recently traded from the Indians to the Cardinals. According to a baseball source with direct knowledge of the Indians' discussions concerning DeRosa, the Sox were never really a suitor for the player, surprising given DeRosa's ability to hit lefthanded pitching (a 1.020 OPS this season) as well as his ability to play multiple positions, including third base.

  Again, the market could change between now and July 31, and Epstein's patience has been one of his greatest assets. If Toronto fades, Marco Scutaro or Scott Rolen could become available. Maybe someone like Geoff Blum could help fill the Boston bench. And while many of those options may not particularly appeal to fans who want a bigger, more well-known solution, they could help the Red Sox address the potential loss of a third baseman who has been a consistent contributor when healthy.

  But then, that is why a healthy Lowell remains their best alternative.

An observation from Boston's 4-1 win over the Braves last night, improving the Sox to 17-6 in their last 23 games:

Braves starter Jair Jurrjens entered the game with a reputation of being tough on right-handed hitters, then manhandled the righties in the Sox' lineup through the first seven innings. During that span, righties went 1 for 13, the only hit being Dustin Pedroia’s high chopper that somehow turned into a double. By contrast, lefties went 4 for 11 with a walk against Jurrjens, totals that included David Ortiz’ ice-breaking homer in the fifth.

For the year, lefties now are batting .323 against Jurrjens while righties are batting .190.

For what it’s worth, Josh Beckett followed a similar pattern against the Braves. During Beckett’s seven-inning stint, lefties went 5 for 12 and reached once via a hit batsman, while righties went 1 for 14. Combined, in the first seven innings of the game, right-handed batters were 2 for 27 (again, Pedroia’s hit was one of the two) while lefties were 9 for 23 while reaching base in 11 of 25 plate appearances (an on-base percentage of .440).

What all of this underscores, obviously, is the need for left-handed bats in a game where the majority of pitchers are right-handed. While Beckett’s season splits are far more balanced (.217 vs. RHB; .253 vs. LHB) than those of Jurrjens, it is important to remember that Beckett is a frontline pitcher, the kind of talent that few teams possess. The point is that most righties have at least some difficulty with lefties, which is why a lefty who can also hit left-handed pitching has so much value.

This year, in the American League, the highest batting average of any matchup is with a right-handed batter facing a left-handed pitcher -- a .269 average with a .778 OPS in 16,406 plate appearances. Still, against right-handed pitchers, left-handed batters have a virtually identical .265 average and .773 OPS in 29,946 plate appearances, meaning the output is essentially the same in a matchup that takes place almost twice as frequently.

Let’s put that out there in more readable form:

Righty hitters vs. lefty pitchers this year: .269 average, .778 OPS, 16,406 PA.
Lefty hitters vs. righty pitchers this year: .265 average, .773 OPS, 29,946 PA.

Bottom line: To be good, right-handed pitchers need to get left-handed batters out. At the same time, teams would be wise to have as many productive left-handed batters in their lineup as possible without completely sacrificing their offense against left-handed pitching. For a club like the Red Sox, this further illustrates the importance of David Ortiz, whose impact on the Red Sox lineup can be especially important given that Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis are otherwise the most productive hitters in Boston’s lineup.

Of course, Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay are all right-handed, helping to explain why the Red Sox’ record of 18-8 against left-handed starters is tied for the best in baseball.

When you get right down to it, the only question that matters is this: What do the Red Sox do with Daisuke Matsuzaka? How do they solve the problem caused exclusively by a man in whom they have invested more than $100 million?

John Smoltz, Brad Penny, six-man rotations … it is all a smokescreen, really. At the end of the day, this is all about Matsuzaka. He's not hurt. He won't go to the minors. The Red Sox won't put him in the bullpen. And so tonight, again, the Red Sox send Matsuzaka out to start another game, this one against the Atlanta Braves, while crossing their fingers and holding their breath.

"My first thought was that if we tell him that we're putting him in long relief, that's probably not going to build his confidence a whole lot," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said during his weekly interview on WEEI. "You know, there's a lot of things to think about. When you put a guy in the bullpen, who comes out of the bullpen? When you send a guy to the bullpen, how does he react to the bullpen?

"Also, Daisuke is typically our guy who takes the longest to warm up. …He goes out there a good 45-50 minutes before the game and throws a lot, so is that going to work? If you put a guy in the bullpen and he hasn't pitched a lot in three weeks, and you need a starter, is he capable of throwing a lot of pitches? I think there's a lot of things to look at. We can't just get caught up in what the fans and [media] are caught up in because we'll make some poor decisions."

Ain't that the truth.

At the moment, Matsuzaka is the anti-ace. So far this season, the Red Sox are 2-5 when Matsuzaka pitches, 38-21 when he does not. When Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez were in their prime years as Red Sox pitchers, much was made of the fact that the Sox were a playoff-caliber team on the day they sent their ace to the mound -- the 1999 Sox were 26-5 when Martinez pitched, 68-63 when he did not -- and an astonishingly mediocre one on the remaining four. If the Sox could send Matsuzaka to Toronto right now, he might completely neutralize Roy Halladay and drag the Blue Jays out of contention.

Even more amazing is this: Among all American League pitchers with at least 30 innings, Matsuzaka ranks 13th in average run support. On the Boston staff, only nine-game-winner Tim Wakefield has benefited from a higher number. Matsuzaka has been losing despite the fact that the Red Sox have been scoring runs for him, which speaks to just how poor his performance has been.

In many ways, Francona is right about the bullpen. If the Red Sox were to send Matsuzaka there now -- or when Smoltz returns to active status next week -- they might be burying him for the balance of 2009. While some of us are willing to take that chance, the Red Sox know they may need Matsuzaka later in the season, be it the result of an injury to another one of their starters or the need to trade someone in order to address a deficiency.

So it seems the Sox are prepared to ride this out with Matsuzaka, on whom they have spent $103.11 million in a posting fee ($51.11 million) and six-year contract ($52 million). Matsuzaka's annual average salary of $8.67 million makes him quite affordable given his age and upside. At the same time, if the Red Sox dealt him now, he will have cost them the equivalent of $29.9 million a year for fewer than three years of service.

Has he been worth it? Yes and no. On the one hand, Matsuzaka won more games in 2007-2008 than any major league pitcher but Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Brandon Webb. On the other, of the 12 major league pitchers to win at least 30 games during those seasons, Matsuzaka ranks last in innings pitched. Last year, in what must be viewed as a statistical aberration, Matsuzaka pitched the fewest innings in history of any starter to win at least 18 games. (No small feat there.)

As always, the truth rests somewhere in between. Matsuzaka isn't as good as he pitched last season and he's not as bad as he is pitching now.

"I mean, we're talking about a pitcher who over the last two years has won, what, 33 regular-season games, three postseason games," Francona said. "That's 36 games. I don't care how you do it, that's a lot of games. We can't just put guys on a shelf when they run through tough times. I think a better way to go is to help fix 'em. We've got this guy signed for a long time. We want him to help us win games."

Of course, that is what everybody wants. Matsuzaka wants to pitch well, the Red Sox want him to pitch well. Fans want him to pitch well. The problem to this point is that Matsuzaka has pitched poorly -- far more poorly than anyone else on the staff -- and that the Red Sox have a starter ready to join the rotation next Thursday (on Matsuzaka's regularly scheduled day) in Smoltz. Clay Buchholz is waiting anxiously in the minors. The Sox currently have the highly unusual problem of having more capable pitchers than job openings -- don't you dare suggest they have "too much pitching" -- and Matsuzaka is not keeping up with the Joneses.

Last night, Sox pitching John Farrell told the Globe's Amalie Benjamin that the Red Sox were focused only on Matsuzaka's outing tonight. Farrell said nothing of next week, which certainly raises the question as to whether Matsuzaka is pitching for his place in the rotation. Regardless, the Red Sox need to see more from their $103.11 million man.

And they need to see it soon.

After tonight, the Marlins leave and the Braves come in. Then it’s on to Washington to face the wretched Nationals. Then they’re off to Atlanta to play the Braves again.

And then, the Red Sox finally can stop beating up on the little kids and return to the American League, even if it’s against the worst team in their own division, the Baltimore Orioles.

Interleague play is in full bloom in this 2009 season, and the results so far have been exactly as anticipated. The Red Sox are wiping the floor with the National League. Boston has outscored the Florida Marlins by a 14-3 count in this three-game set entering tonight’s series finale behind Jon Lester, he of the 2-0 record and 1.23 ERA in his last three starts. During that time, Lester has held opponents to an .099 batting average while piling up 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

With last night’s 6-1 win behind Brad Penny, the Sox are now 5-3 in interleague play this season, including a record of 4-1 in the last five games. Since the start of the 2003 campaign, Boston is 76-40 in regular-season games against the other league, tied with the Minnesota Twins for the best record in baseball. The Red Sox vs. the National League is baseball’s version of Godzilla meets Bambi, akin to watching a home winemaker stomp on a batch of grapes.

Here are five reasons the Red Sox rule baseball’s other world, starting with the most obvious.

5. The National League stinks.

Fine, so the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series last year. Big deal. Entering tonight, since the start of interleague play, the American League has a .521 winning percentage against the NL. Since the start of the 2003 season -- the year that coincides with the start of the Red Sox’ dominance -- the AL winning percentage is .542. And since the start of the 2006 campaign, the AL has a whopping .579 winning percentage, which translates into a 94-68 record over the course of a 162-game schedule.

Know what that means? It means that over the last three-plus seasons, if AL teams played exclusively NL teams, the AL teams would go an average of 94-68 while the NL teams would go an average of 68-94. Pennant races would be over by July 1. Send in the clowns.

Having already played the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies -- their only two scheduled interleague opponents currently possessing winning records -- the Red Sox look to have an easy schedule in the coming days, even without the use of a designated hitter in National League parks. And while the Mets did take two of three from the Sox at Fenway Park this year, there is evidence to suggest the series outcome was something of an aberration. One of New York’s two wins in that series came on a blown save by Jonathan Papelbon, accounting for the only loss this season in a game the Red Sox have led after six innings. In those situations, the Sox are 33-1.

4. Scouting.

As much as any team in baseball, the Red Sox are proficient at breaking down opponents and exploiting weakness. This was never more apparent than during the 2004 and 2007 World Series, both of which resulted in sweeps. (Yes, those are interleague games.) In those contests, the Red Sox went 8-0 while posting an aggregate 2.50 ERA against St. Louis Cardinals (2004) and Colorado Rockies (2007), who hit a combined .205 against Boston and were completely shut down.

It is one thing to identify an opponent’s deficiencies, another to exploit it. The latter speaks to execution, which is a reflection on the players and on their talents. Nonetheless, the Red Sox of today are as thorough as any team in baseball when it comes to melding philosophies of the old school and new school -- traditional scouting with sabermetrics -- and their advance scouts, in particular, know how to evaluate opponents.

The ultimate point here is that the Red Sox are prepared, from the front office to the man squatting behind the plate. They generally have all their bases covered, which is especially important when facing teams you see maybe once every few years.

3. Fenway Park

Sooner or later, doesn’t it always come back to the ballpark? During the Theo Epstein era -- that is, beginning with the 2003 season -- the Red Sox have the best home record in baseball (341-177) and have scored more runs at home (3,081 -- an average of 5.9 per game) than any team in the game. The Red Sox effectively have built their team to fit their ballpark, and the numbers prove it.

Against the National League, those numbers are even better. With last night’s win, the Red Sox are a major league-best 43-16 in interleague home games since the start of the 2003 season, a .729 winning percentage that translates into 118 wins over the course of a 162-game schedule. (Now that’s dominating.) During that span, the Sox have outscored opponents by a preposterous 133 runs, an average of roughly 2.3 per game.

But wait, there’s more. During those 59 games, the Red Sox have batted .312 as a team with a .388 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage. That’s an OPS of .900. In interleague games over the past six years, that is sort of like sending Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Howard to the plate -- for every at-bat.

2. Depth and versatility

When you look back, the funny thing is that the Red Sox were once atrocious in interleague play. From 1997-2002, a period that essentially encompassed the entire Red Sox managerial career of Jimy Williams, the Sox went 45-58 in interleague games, a .437 winning percentage that was seventh-worst in baseball and third-worst among AL clubs. When the National League teams showed up, the Red Sox got exposed.

While some of that difference had to do with the fact that the NL was a better league then -- even if only slightly better -- the greater problems concerned the one-dimensional nature of the Red Sox. Back then, the Sox were not the deep offensive club they are now. Losing the designated hitter hurt them badly. The Sox similarly lacked speed, making scoring even more difficult.

Indeed, from 1997-2002, the Sox went 25-28 in interleague home games, but a brutal 20-30 on the road. They scored fewer runs (201, an average of 4.0 per game) on the road in NL parks than all but six clubs. When the Red Sox travel to the NL now, they have a deeper lineup -- with or without David Ortiz -- more speed and generally play better defense. Since the start of the 2003 season, their interleague road record of 33-24 is third-best in baseball.

1. The lineup

The Red Sox simply are not easy to pitch to. This year’s lineup doesn’t have the same kind of punch that previous Sox clubs have had, but, by comparison, they still dwarf most anything in the National League. The Red Sox currently rank fourth in the American League in runs scored, but they have outscored the Phillies, who lead the NL.

When pitchers like Andrew Miller (last night) and Chris Volstad take the mound against the Red Sox, they are seeing lineups they are not accustomed to seeing. Since the start of the 2003 season, National League teams have a 5.89 ERA against the Red Sox. Toss in the two World Series blowouts and the number actually climbs a little to 5.95. Even the best teams in the NL have not been able to negotiate their way through the Boston batting order. Just ask those 2004 Cardinals and 2007 Rockies.

Tonight, for what it’s worth, the Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the mound against Lester. The possessor of a 15-8 record and 3.52 ERA last season, Nolasco has pitched better in his last two starts (a 2.77 ERA) but has a 7.62 ERA for the year. Now he has the challenge of facing Lester and the Red Sox in what could be a true indication of whether his rediscovered his groove.

Based on recent history, the odds are clearly stacked against him.

So tonight, it occurred to me: Kevin Youkilis made his major league debut more than five years ago, and he has never played a major league home game before anything but a sellout.

"I’ve never known a difference," Youkilis said a short time ago as the Sox prepared to play the Florida Marlins in what will be the 500th consecutive sellout at Fenway Park. "Hopefully, I’ll never have to play a home game that’s not sold out. Everywhere we go, even on the road, we have a lot of fans. You never even realize how some guys play in front of no fans.’’

Indeed, the Boston clubhouse is filled with players who know what it’s like to play in empty stadiums. Jason Bay came from Pittsburgh. Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett came from Florida. Ramon Ramirez came from Kansas City. In Youkilis’s case, he has played 307 regular season home games in his career, all sellouts, the longest such streak in baseball.

Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Daisuke Matsuzaka, George Kottaras, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and Hideki Okajima also have played exclusively to home sellouts during their careers, but none of them has been in the majors longer than Youkilis, who debuted on May 15, 2004.

That year also marked manager Terry Francona’s first season in Boston, meaning Francona has never managed before anything but a sellout at Fenway.

"I do probably take it for granted," Francona admitted. "I probably shouldn’t because it’s pretty special.’’

This afternoon, on the day following his 380th career start as a member of the Red Sox, Tim Wakefield will report for work feeling relatively spry, presumably, and extraordinarily blessed, almost certainly. Wakefield is 42 years old, a father of two small children. Before long, he will have started more games for the Red Sox than any pitcher in team history.

That bears repeating.

Sometime in the next few weeks, Wakefield will have started more games for the Red Sox than any pitcher in team history.

"That’s pretty cool," Wakefield said last night following a six-inning stint that led to his ninth win and an 8-2 Red Sox victory over the Florida Marlins. "I think it says that maybe I’ve been able to endure some adversity through my career here, going from starting to closing and things like that. I say this all the time, but I feel lucky wearing a Red Sox uniform for my 15th season. That’s special to be able to be able to say that."

Here’s what else it says: He has taken the ball, unfailingly, which is no small feat in any age because it speaks of durability, consistency, and reliability. First, you have to stay healthy enough to pitch. Second, you have to be good enough to stay in the rotation. At the moment, the Red Sox’ current all-time leader in games started is Roger Clemens, who made 382 starts for the Sox from 1984-96. Depending on what the Red Sox do what their rotation when John Smoltz comes off the disabled list next week, Wakefield will either tie or overtake Clemens by the All-Star break.

At that moment, Wakefield will have thrown the first pitch of a Red Sox game more times than anyone who ever has worn the Boston uniform. More times than Clemens, Cy Young, Luis Tiant, or Pedro Martinez. More times than Lefty Grove, Mel Parnell, or Bruce Hurst. Wakefield has won his share (173) and lost his share (148), but he has always been there.

Indeed, when Woody Allen suggested that 90 percent of life is just showing up, he must have had baseball in mind. Consistency is the most underrated aspect of the game. For a manager like Terry Francona, being able to write Jason Bay's name on his lineup card every day provides an enormous amount of comfort and stability, independent of whether Bay’s production makes him an All-Star or a relatively mediocre performer. For the skipper, a guy like Bay is one less thing to think about. Since Derek Jeter came into the major leagues in 1996, he has played more games than anybody in baseball, providing the Yankees with both an identity and concrete footing.

In Wakefield’s case, he has faced 11,475 batters and thrown 41,906 pitches while wearing the Boston uniform. During that same period of time (from 1995-present) in the majors, only Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Mike Mussina, and Randy Johnson have exceeded Wakefield in both categories. None of those men has spent that time with one club. (John Smoltz also has exceeded Wakefield in both, but his career in Atlanta began earlier.) For all of the changes that have taken place in Boston, from the front office to the last locker in the clubhouse, Wakefield has continued to take the ball.

"He’s so consistent with a pitch that’s not consistent," Francona said last night. "You look up in the sixth or seventh inning and he’s got a chance to win."

In the early stages of Wakefield’s career in Boston, he was particularly vulnerable to streaks. He started his Red Sox career by going 14-1 with a 1.65 ERA in his first 17 starts, then went 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA in his next 10 outings. Subsequent seasons were equally unpredictable at times, Wakefield oscillating between long streaks of brilliance and borderline ineptitude, leading to the popular belief that Wakefield is "streaky."

The truth? Wakefield stopped being streaky a long time ago. His skids now are usually limited to two or three starts, making him no different than any other pitcher in baseball. Josh Beckett has thrown in the mid-90s for the better part of his career and he has those lapses, too. The 42-year-old Wakefield is different from the 32-year-old Wakefield in that he now knows how to grind his way through five or six innings on nights when his trademark knuckleball suffers from its schizophrenic tendencies, a sign of his growth and maturity as a pitcher.

Last night, Wakefield said he feels "unbelievable" physically compared to other years at this time. Given the injuries that have limited him at the end of the last two seasons, there is legitimate question as to whether he can hold up in late August, September and October. (The Red Sox plan for this out of necessity.) This year, in an attempt to combat the effects of age, Wakefield has altered his maintenance and conditioning program with the hopes of lasting longer. Following each start, he stretches more than he ever has before icing his arm. He is doing less work with weights, particularly on those days when he is scheduled to throw between starts, and more cardiovascular work. So far the results have been positive for both the player and team, Wakefield leading the club in victories (nine) while throwing essentially as many innings (82) as Beckett (82 1/3) or Jen Lester (81 1/3) in the same number of starts (13).

Somewhere along the line, someone developed the theory that the knuckleball puts less strain on a pitcher's arm than the conventional repertoire. That is a fallacy. For Wakefield, throwing his fastball at 74 mph takes every bit the toll on him that Beckett’s 95-mph fastball puts on Beckett’s arm, particularly at this stage of Wakefield’s major league existence. It is why the Red Sox no longer pitch him on short rest or between starts. The extended life of a knuckleballer’s career has more to do with the pitch’s movement than it does with the velocity, which is why men like Phil Niekro and Charlie Hough could continue to pitch well into their 40s.

So long as they stayed healthy, of course.

"He’s pitched a lot of innings in his career," Francona said of Wakefield. "And we want him to continue to do that."

A whopping 380 starts into his Red Sox career, Wakefield is chugging right along, thank you very much.

And on Sunday, for the 381st time in Wakefield’s Red Sox career, his manager will happily hand him the ball again.

What we have here, for lack of a better description, is baseball’s answer to the four-corner offense. The Red Sox are spreading things out and taking their time, using every second to their advantage.

So for the next nine days, at least, the Red Sox will remain in a five-man rotation. After that, with John Smoltz now due to start on June 25 against the Washington Nationals, a six-man rotation seems like a probability. If and when the Red Sox go to that scenario, the one thing we know for certain is that it will be a temporary solution pending a more permanent decision involving another member of their staff, probably Daisuke Matsuzaka or Brad Penny.

Meanwhile, the clock continues to tick.

"It might be for a time or two through. It could happen," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said today when asked about the prospect of a six-man rotation upon Smoltz’s return. "I don’t know that we need to make our rotation out a week ahead of time, but [a six-man rotation] wouldn’t be the worst thing for a short period of time."

And so, in the interim, we join the Red Sox in waiting.

For now, there is no doubt that Daisuke Matsuzaka is a lucky man. Nobody currently in the Boston rotation has been as ineffective as Dice-K, but his contract and major league rules will allow him at least one more start, on Friday, against the Atlanta Braves. After that, Matsuzaka’s next turn would have fallen on June 25, which just happens to be the date that Smoltz takes the mound.

What that means, in short, is that Matsuzaka might very well be pitching for his place in the rotation on Friday, though the Red Sox have not said that. Matsuzaka’s contract prevents him from being demoted to the minors without his approval. Meanwhile, the Red Sox do not need to activate Smoltz until he pitches next week -- only his rehabilitation stint ends this week -- so the Sox are stretching the limits to account for their surplus of starting pitchers.

Let’s make something clear here: the Red Sox know what they’re doing. Postponing Smoltz’s return another week allows them to keep more pitchers for a longer period of time. The Red Sox clearly feel that demoting Matsuzaka to the bullpen could alienate him -- they may need him, too, at some point -- and they obviously have not found a suitable deal for Penny yet. The question that now remains is whether the club’s reluctance to move Matsuzaka to another role (or place) hurts Penny’s trade value.

At the moment, there is certainly no need for the Red Sox to make a rush to judgment. But at some point soon, unless the decision is made for them in the way of an injury, one must wonder when a six-man rotation begins to hurt the Red Sox more than it helps.

Nearly four years later, if you had it to do over again, would you?

I would.

"I knew the guy could fly and that he could hit," Dan Duquette said of Hanley Ramirez, the Florida Marlins phenom signed by the Red Sox in 2000 (during Duquette's reign as general manager) and later traded to the Marlins in a deal that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston. "I didn't know he would play shortstop."

At the time of the trade in November 2005, the Red Sox really did not know it, either, particularly amid the organizational turmoil brought about by the dispute between Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino. Maybe Ramirez was a shortstop. Maybe he was a center fielder. But wherever Ramirez landed on the diamond, there was little doubt that he possessed unique talents, a combination of abilities that today make him perhaps the most dynamic all-around offensive player in baseball.

Since the start of the 2006 campaign that marked his award-winning rookie season, Ramirez -- who visits Fenway Park this week for the second time in his career (the first came with the Red Sox for one at-bat in 2005) -- is the only player in baseball to rank in the top 10 in the major leagues in aggregate runs (first), hits (fifth), extra-base hits (fifth), and steals (sixth). He also has made a whopping 77 errors, more than any player (at any position) in the game. Hanley is right up there with Albert, Ichiro, and Mariano as the game's most identifiable stars known almost exclusively on a first-name basis. And he is just 25 (albeit in Dominican years) while having just begun a six-year, $70 million contract that pays him an average salary ($11.7 million) only slightly more than what the Red Sox are paying Julio Lugo ($9 million).

All things considered, Ramirez may be the single most valuable commodity in the game, a young and supremely gifted player who is extremely affordable even in a time of economic crisis, particularly in the first three years of his contract ($23.5 million).

In retrospect, in the fall of 2005, that is what the Red Sox had to give up to get Beckett and Lowell, the latter of whom initially was forced upon the Sox but who has since turned out to be among the most productive third basemen in the game. And though the Red Sox sent three additional minor leaguers to Florida in the deal -- including righthander Anibal Sanchez -- the trade essentially has amounted to Ramirez for Beckett and Lowell, a positively sterling example of the play-now-and-pay-later philosophy that drives so many of the deals in sports today.

The Red Sox got exactly what they wanted from this deal. The Marlins did, too. Two years from now, if Beckett and Lowell are elsewhere -- both are under team control through only 2010 while Ramirez is signed through 2014 -- there may be cause to reevaluate the deal. But by then, too, the Marlins may have traded away Ramirez, perhaps back to Boston, unloading the $46.5 million he is due in the final three years of his deal.

After all, Theo never wanted to trade Ramirez in the first place (trust me on this one), but he already had resigned from the Red Sox when the team pulled off the deal under the watch of Lucchino, baseball lifer Bill Lajoie, and current Red Sox director of international scouting Craig Shipley.

Ramirez himself believes he would still be the with the Red Sox had Epstein not taken his hiatus.

[Epstein] didn't want to trade me," Ramirez told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel for today's edition. "I got traded when he kind of quit. I would have been in Boston. It happens."

The Sox have made inquiries with the Marlins about the prospect of reacquiring Ramirez in recent years. The deal easily can be argued from both sides -- that's what made the trade so compelling in the first place -- and Epstein always has operated with the bigger picture in mind, making it clear he would waste no time trading one title for multiple championships down the line.

On this one, everyone can be right and everyone can be wrong.

"We gave up some things, but I think the Red Sox have benefited greatly from Beckett and Mike Lowell," Lajoie said in May 2007, before the Sox went on to win the World Series for the second time in four seasons. "The thought was right. It just happened a year later than sooner [that Beckett and Lowell fully blossomed in Boston]. … It was myself and Craig Shipley who were the proponents of that trade, who wanted to go for it. There were some last-second attempts to stop the trade, but we decided to go through with it."

Lajoie never specified who was behind those "last-second attempts to stop the trade," but the Red Sox obviously were fractured at the time, divided into schools of old and new. Epstein, despite his sabbatical, was speaking with some officials regularly to offer his thoughts on the proposed deal, and owner John Henry was among those who stated publicly that his preference was to sign A.J. Burnett rather than to trade for Beckett, a scenario that would have allowed the Sox to retain Ramirez. Had that happened, there is no telling where Beckett might have ended up -- what if he eventually had surfaced with the Yankees? -- and how he and Lowell might have affected pennant races in 2006 and beyond.

In recent Red Sox history, there has been no single decision to serve as an organizational crossroads quite like the Ramirez deal. It is the ultimate "What if?" scenario.

There is no doubt that the deal has worked out quite well for the Red Sox. Since the start of the 2006 season, only the Angels and Yankees (316 wins each) have won more games than the Red Sox (315). Lowell has knocked in more runs than any major league third baseman but Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Aramis Ramirez, and that is despite the fact the second half of his 2008 season was effectively wiped out. Beckett has won more games (55) than any major league pitcher but Roy Halladay (62), Johan Santana (58), or Brandon Webb (56), and he all but single-handedly carried the Sox to the 2007 world title.

And though Epstein might have been against acquiring Beckett and Lowell in the first place, let the record show that he has since signed both players to new contracts ensuring that each would remain under club control through 2010.

As for Ramirez, even Duquette admits that there was no way to project what he would become when the Sox signed him nine years ago on the advice of scout Elvio Jimenez. At the time, the Sox had partnered with the Hiroshima Carp to run an academy in the Dominican Republic, and Jimenez thought Duquette should take a look at a young shortstop whom Jimenez had likened to Jose Offerman. (Yikes.) Duquette made the trip and immediately decided that Ramirez had "more power than Offerman," similarly recognizing that Ramirez (again, like Offerman) may not have possessed the hands to play shortstop in the major leagues.

Years later, Duquette now compares Ramirez's skills at the time to other prominent major leaguers like Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield, who were signed or drafted by the Montreal Expos and Milwaukee Brewers, respectively, when Duquette worked for those organizations.

"He did show that he had a live bat like Vladimir Guerrero. He was tall like that, but a little better athlete than Guerrero," Duquette recalled. "Every time he swung he squared up the ball on his bat, but I didn't know he would have this kind of power. ... Sheffield played shortstop in high school but he had a little thicker body than this kid and Sheffield had a little more power."

Today, Guerrero and Sheffield are potential Hall of Famers in the final years of their major league careers.

In Ramirez's case, he is really just beginning.

Too much pitching? No, no, no. You can never have too much. You can have an abundance, perhaps. Maybe even a stockpile. But you can never, ever have too much.

Possessors of the best record in the American League, the Red Sox will encounter a most unusual problem this week when John Smoltz comes off the disabled list. The Sox will have 13 capable pitchers for 12 spots on the staff, a seemingly unthinkable problem in this age of expansion. And that excludes Clay Buchholz, who has a 1.74 ERA at Pawtucket and expressed his frustration with his situation to NECN's Mike Giardi over the weekend. While the rest of the baseball world doesn’t have two nickels to rub together, the Red Sox are showing up at flea market with a fistful of dollars.

So what are they supposed to do, give it away?

With Smoltz’s return on the horizon, here are five scenarios to solve the overstock problem, in order of preference:

Plan A: Reassign Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Bullpen, minor leagues or disabled list -- take your pick. Any way you slice it, Matsuzaka does not deserve to be in the starting rotation at the moment. All things considered, he does not deserve to be on the staff, either, but removing him from the active roster isn’t as simple as a demotion or a trip to the DL.

In both instances, the Red Sox would need Matsuzaka to sign off on the move because of specifics detailed in his contract or the bargaining agreement, something that does not seem likely to happen at this stage.

At the moment, Matsuzaka’s 7.55 ERA is fourth-highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings. Only Adam Eaton, Scott Kazmir, and Ricky Nolasco have been worse. If Matsuzaka is not willing to go to the minors or the DL to fix his problems -- opponents are batting .372 against him, righthanded batters an absurd .419 -- the best course of action for the Sox is to take their most ineffective starter, place him in the bullpen, and make him their mop-up man.

Should the Sox choose this route, they can create the roster spot by simply optioning Daniel Bard to Triple A. Despite his performance on Friday night, Bard generally was being used in a conservative role, anyway. Matsuzaka won’t like this, but the move allows the Sox to keep all of the pitchers in their roster while forcing Matsuzaka to work his way back to respectability. The bottom line here is that the other starters have been better than him.

Plan B: Make a trade, preferably involving Brad Penny.

Since May 1, Penny is 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA, not bad for a No. 5 starter. Last week, in throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees, he was as aggressive as he has been all year. Up until today, major league rules prohibited the Sox from trading Penny, a free agent who signed with the club over the winter.

Penny’s name obviously has been floated about in a number of trade scenarios in the last several weeks. The obvious question concerns the Red Sox’ needs, which still seem unclear. Until the Sox make a final determination on David Ortiz or Jed Lowrie -- assuming the Sox have not already -- they may need a designated hitter or a shortstop (or both). That could impact what they seek for Penny, be it in a straight 1-for-1 swap or a package deal.

At this stage, does it really make sense to trade Penny and keep Matsuzaka, at least based on effectiveness? Probably not. Again, the Sox could find an alternative route here and trade someone from their bullpen (Manny Delcarmen? Justin Masterson?) but that still would necessitate bumping Matsuzaka into a relief role. If the Sox are going to do that, they would be better off waiting and temporarily sending Bard to Triple A, allowing the trade market to further develop and thereby introducing competitive bidding as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.

Plan C: Move Tim Wakefield to the bullpen.

Years ago, wasn’t this always the solution for everything? Wakefield could start and he could relieve, and he could even do both at the same time. In Wakefield’s early years with the club, he could start on Monday and Saturday, and pitch out of the bullpen in between, making him one of the most versatile and valuable pitchers in baseball.

Here’s the problem: Wakefield is 42 now and he doesn’t bounce back the way he used to. The past two years, he has broken down late in the season. Jerking him around would be both disrespectful and imprudent, especially when the eight-game winner has pitched better than the majority of starters in the Boston rotation this season.

At the end of the day, if the Red Sox are going to send a starter to the bullpen, it needs to be their worst starter. That’s Matsuzaka. Replacing Wakefield with Smoltz makes no sense whatsoever, unless the Red Sox somehow think Wakefield could be a more effective reliever than Matsuzaka could be. That seems illogical given the depth of the bullpen and the likelihood that Matsuzaka or Wakefield would be relegated to mop-up status.

Plan D: Go to a six-man rotation.

For whatever reason, many fans and followers love this idea, but there are lots of things to consider. For beginners, the routines of every starter would be thrown off kilter. Factoring in off days, there would be situations when the entire rotation could be operating on six days of rest, which seems a little excessive, even for a team that goes to great lengths to protect its pitchers.

Here is another thing to consider: The Red Sox have 99 games left. Using a five-man rotation, that basically amounts to 20 starts per man. Using a six-man rotation, that number shrinks to 16 or 17 starts. Over the course of the next four months, a six-man rotation means that the Red Sox could be taking away as many as eight combined outings for Josh Beckett and Jon Lester by giving them to someone like Matsuzaka. If the Sox were to do that and miss the playoffs, by two or three games, there would be ample reason to question judgment.

Admittedly, there are occasions where a six-man rotation would make some sense. One would be on a staff with no clear separation between the best starter and the worst. Another would be in a stance where, say, a team had a big lead in the standings late in the year and wanted to soften the workload on their pitchers in anticipation of the playoffs. The Red Sox may very well find themselves in the latter scenario at some point -- but they’re not there yet.

Plan E: Put Smoltz in the bullpen (i.e., none of the above).

During his illustrious career, Smoltz has made 466 career starts and 244 career relief appearances, compiling 210 victories and 154 saves. Along with Dennis Eckersley, he is one of the truly unique pitchers in baseball history, a man who might be able to help every team in baseball in more than one role.

The problem? Like Wakefield, Smoltz is now 42. Compounding that issue is the fact that he is coming off surgery, which makes his health a greater concern. Even if the Red Sox were to employ Smoltz as a reliever, the best-case scenario might be one in which the Sox use him like they do Takashi Saito, refraining from appearances on back-to-back days and carefully picking their spots.

Even then, it is far easier for teams to manage the routine of a starter than a reliever, particularly with pitchers who have had arm surgery of any kind. Back in the late 1990s, for instance, the Red Sox were able to get something out of people like Bret Saberhagen and Pete Schourek because they could more effectively manager their routines as starters. The same is now true of Smoltz.

Over the weekend, Smoltz told the Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he offered to go to the bullpen but the club dismissed the possibility. Remember: One of the primary reasons the Sox signed Smoltz was to have him available to start games in September and, more specifically October, when they could fully benefit from Smoltz’s abilities and reputation as a big-game pitcher. How does a bullpen stint now accomplish that?

The New York Yankees need a setup man, something never more evident than during last night’s 4-3 loss to the Red Sox. Everyone knows that CC Sabathia is a bull, the kind of man virtually immune to pitch counts. But had anyone remotely comparable to the Joba Chamberlain of 2007 been in the New York bullpen last night, he -- and not Sabathia -- would have been on the mound to start the eighth inning at Fenway Park.

Still, New York’s starters haven’t exactly been getting it done against the Red Sox this year, either.

For all of the talk about the problems in the New York bullpen this season -- and there are many -- New York’s starters are 0-6 with a 7.04 ERA against Boston this year. That is true despite Sabathia’s strong outing last night. New York relievers let down Sabathia and the rest of the Yankees by failing to preserve the pitcher’s victory in the finale of yet another Red Sox sweep, but starters A.J. Burnett and Chien-Ming Wang did more damage to the Yankees in this series than any Yankees relievers did.

Taking the eight games as an aggregated, here is how the Yankees' starters and relievers have performed in the season series:

STARTERS
              W-L    ERA    IP    H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR   Avg
Red Sox       5-0   3.80  47.1   54  20   20   17   44    6  .283
Yankees       0-6   7.04  38.1   53  35   30   27   35    7  .333

RELIEVERS

              W-L    ERA    IP    H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR   Avg

Red Sox       3-0   3.04  26.2   23  11    9   16   23    4  .237

Yankees       0-2   5.10  30.0   26  20   17   21   30    6  .230

This brings us back to Burnett, in whom the Yankees have more than $80 million invested over the next five years. In two starts against the Red Sox this year, Burnett has allowed 13 hits, 13 runs, eight walks, and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. He has just four strikeouts. The Sox are batting .382 against him. Burnett had a 6-0 lead against the Sox in April and could not protect it.

Last night, the bullpen failed the Yankees. But overall, New York’s starters have been completely outpitched. The Red Sox have outscored New York by a 36-20 margin in the first six innings this year, by a 19-11 margin thereafter. There is a lot of blame to share ...

... and the manager does not get off the hook, either. Joe Girardi has the utmost faith in Sabathia, for good reason, but the lefty’s pitch count escalated rapidly in the eighth. On a wet mound, no less, Sabathia left up a changeup to Nick Green, then missed badly (albeit on the 10th pitch of the at-bat) to Dustin Pedroia in issuing a walk. That probably should have been it for him. Girardi opted to squeeze out one more batter and have Sabathia face J.D. Drew, who poked a single to center in what may have been the biggest at-bat of the game.

"I thought he still had good stuff,’’ Girardi said of Sabathia.

While that may have been true, it is often interesting to note the things managers do not do in a series, too. For example: Justin Masterson did not see the mound in the three games against New York. Daniel Bard pitched only in Tuesday’s blowout. Masterson and Bard are the only two Boston relievers who have consistent difficulty with lefthanded hitters, many of whom dot the Yankees lineup.

On Wednesday, counting switch-hitters, the Yankees had seven lefthanded batters in the lineup with only Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez batting exclusively from the right side. This year, lefties have batted .313 against Masterson and .333 against Bard, so Francona generally stayed away from those pitchers in any situations of consequence.

Masterson, in particular, was relegated to anchor man status, meaning that Francona held him out as an insurance policy in the event the Red Sox got into an extra-inning game. In that scenario, Masterson would have been the final option because he is capable of throwing more innings than any other reliever in the Boston bullpen. That said ...

Takashi Saito was the key to last night’s game. When Saito entered in the seventh inning, the Yankees had a man on second in the midst of a three-run rally that had given them a 3-1 edge. Saito retired Robinson Cano on a flyout before pitching a scoreless eighth. With Manny Delcarmen out of the game, with Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez unavailable, with Masterson’s and Bard’s difficulties against lefthanders, Francona didn’t have anywhere else to turn.

"He gave us a chance,’’ Francona said of Saito. "I felt like we got backed into a little bit of a corner.’’

Saito now has a string of nine consecutive scoreless outings (covering 9 1/3 innings) during which he has 10 strikeouts. With Jonathan Papelbon having pitched the last two days, Saito’s appearance in the game raises an interesting question about who would close tonight if the Red Sox get into a save situation against the Philadelphia Phillies. Saito has pitched on consecutive days just once all year (April 18-19) while Papelbon has not yet pitched on three consecutive days.

Interestingly, last night’s game marked just the second time all year that Saito and Papelbon have appeared in the same game, the other coming in an extra-inning affair against the Yankees on April 24. This, too, is a reflection of Francona’s ability to handle his pitching staff.

Finally, let’s get back to Drew for a minute. Drew got on base seven times in the series (four hits, three walks) and now has a .526 on-base percentage in eight games as the No. 2 hitter, where he has had a profound impact on the Red Sox offense. One of the biggest at-bats of the series came on Tuesday night, when Burnett had Drew 0-2 with two outs in what was, at the time, a 2-0 game. Burnett should have been out of the inning by then, but an Alex Rodriguez error had extended the Boston inning. Instead of picking up his teammate, Burnett allowed a two-run double that made the score 4-0, a virtually insurmountable deficit with Josh Beckett on the mound.

Burnett was every bit as guilty as Brad Penny was last weekend against Texas, when Julio Lugo failed to at least knock down a ball that might have produced an inning-ending out. Penny had a chance to minimize the damage and cover Lugo’s mistake, but instead allowed a three-run homer to Ian Kinsler.

Lugo got all the blame on that one, but ask yourself this:

Would someone like Curt Schilling have allowed that to happen?

Last month, on the night before Kevin Youkilis returned from the disabled list, the Red Sox played a game against the Toronto Blue Jays that lasted a mere 2 hours 13 minutes. Apprised of that fact upon returning to the Boston clubhouse, Youkilis had a simple explanation.

"That's because I wasn't here," Youkilis cracked to one member of the Boston organization.

You know, he may be right.

Now that the man with the longest at-bats in the American League (4.48 pitches per plate appearance) has returned to the lineup, there is no remaining doubt: Time does not stop when Youkilis enters the batter's box, but it certainly slows down quite a bit. Youkilis has had 10 plate appearances in the first two games of the current three-game series with the New York Yankees, reaching base five times with two singles, two walks, and a home run. The homer was an impressive, opposite-field clout that ultimately provided the difference in last night's 6-5 win that placed the Sox solely atop the American League East.

But it is only a part of the story.

In his 10 plate appearances against the Yankees in this series, Youkilis has seen 52 pitches -- yes, 52 -- including 29 on Tuesday and 23 more last night. In five games against New York this year, he has walked six times (three intentional), including at least once in each game. Youkilis's on-base percentage against the Yankees this year is an insane .600, and the Yankees, like most everyone else at this point, simply have no idea how to get him out.

Hmmm.

"He's turned into such a good hitter," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said of Youkilis when asked about Youkilis's opposite-field homer that landed on the center field side of the Red Sox bullpen, no small feat for a righthanded hitter. "We've seen him in spring training since a long time ago. He's turned into one of the best hitters in the league. The real interesting thing is that he's learned how to hit for power without selling out to hit for power."

As usual, the manager is right. Take a look at Youkilis's slugging percentage beginning with the 2006 season, when he first became a full-time player. During that span, it has gone from .429 to .453 to .569 to his current .619. Meanwhile, his batting average has climbed from .279 to .288 to .312 to .350 while his on-base percentage has gone from .381 to .390 to .390 to .472. If the stock market could travel along a similar path of growth, American business would be booming again in no time.

In this particular series, we have had a perfect storm similar to the demonstration put forth by Bobby Abreu during a five-game series at Fenway Park almost immediately after Abreu joined the Yankees in 2006. During New York's infamous five-game sweep, Abreu went 10 for 20 with seven walks and a .630 on-base percentage; he saw 119 pitches in the series, an average of 23.8 per game and 4.41 per plate appearance. In that way, the Yankees of 2009 might consider themselves fortunate. After all, this week's meeting with the Sox is only a three-game set and ends tonight, meaning they will be done with Youkilis, at least for a time.

Can you imagine how long these games would be if Chien-Ming Wang had to face someone like Youkilis in every plate appearance? We're talking "Roots." Ken Burns couldn't create an epic that long.

Since he became a major league regular, Youkilis has an overall on-base percentage of .395. Against the Yankees, during that same time, his OBP is .449. Youkilis has seen a whopping 1,104 pitches over that span, more than any player on either team, meaning he has done as much to lengthen Red Sox-Yankees games as any extended commercial breaks on national networks.

Last night, when Youkilis came to bat in the fourth inning of what was then a 4-2 game, J.D. Drew was on third with one out. Wang already had departed, replaced by young righthander Phil Hughes. On a 2-0 pitch, Hughes threw a fastball that Youkilis belted into the bullpen, a most blatant demonstration of Youkilis's metamorphosis as a hitter. Three years ago, Youkilis might have turned that pitch into a sacrifice fly. Last night, he did what a locked-in Manny Ramirez might have done with it by belting it out of the deepest part of the ballpark.

After the game, in assessing the breadth of Youkilis's abilities as a hitter, Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan compared Youkilis to -- get this -- Edgar Martinez, the former Seattle Mariners designated hitter regarded as one of the best hitters of his era. Martinez was a career .312 hitter with a .418 on-base percentage and could drive the ball to all parts of the ballpark. Like Youkilis, Martinez also ran up pitch counts like a college student runs up credit card charges.

"He arrived in the big leagues as a guy who had a real good idea of the strike zone and hit a little gap to gap,'' Magadan said of Youkilis. "Now, when you take his ability to hit for power and add it to all those other things . . .''

Time all but stops.

And so long as your loyalties reside with the Red Sox, Kevin Youkilis is worth every second of the wait.

Another night, another game, another flirtation with a no-hitter. That’s three in the last week or so. In the interest of scheduling, you should know that Jon Lester is due to pitch Friday with Josh Beckett slated to go Sunday.

Now this is clearly what the Red Sox had in mind when they left Fort Myers this spring, armed with a deep pitching staff and a pair of potential aces who could grab games by the throat. The Sox just needed a little time to get here. With last night’s 7-0 victory over the New York Yankees, the Red Sox improved to a perfect 5-0 in their last five games behind Beckett and Lester, who have looked a little like Drysdale and Koufax lately. Few hits. Fewer runs. More strikes than the Major League Baseball Players Association.

At the moment, in what has become an annual and methodical march through the regular season, the Red Sox are now falling into line behind their two best starters.

All together now: Right, left, right.

"I thought he was terrific," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said of Beckett’s latest outing.

Now adding Lester into the mix, what we may have here is a two-headed monster like we have seen at few other points in Red Sox history, most recently in 2002, when Pedro Martinez (20-4) and Derek Lowe (21-8) each won 20 games en route to respective second- and third-place finishes in the American League Cy Young Award balloting. (Those Sox somehow missed the playoffs, though they did not have the dominating bullpen this team does.) In their last five games, Beckett and Lester are a combined 5-0 with a 0.76 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. Over the weekend Daisuke Matsuzaka allowed twice as many hits (10) in 5.2 innings as Beckett and Lester have allowed in their last three starts combined (five). Here's a look at their numbers over that span:

                           IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO HR  Result
(B) May 28 @ Minnesota    7.0   3   1    1    4    8  1  W, 3-1
(L) May 31 @ Toronto      6.0   3   1    1    3   12  0  W, 8-2
(B) June 3 @ Detroit      7.2   2   3    0    2    9  0  W, 10-5
(L) June 6 vs. Texas      9.0   2   1    1    2   11  0  W, 8-1
(B) June 9 vs. NY         6.0   1   0    0    2    8  0  W, 7-0

Totals (5-0, 0.76)       35.2  11   6    3   13   48  1  5-0 (36-9)

Last night, as was the case last week in Detroit, Beckett had no-hit stuff. The only hit he allowed was an infield single to Robinson Cano in the fourth inning. Three nights after Lester struck out 10 of the first 18 batters he faced in six perfect innings, Beckett walked off the Fenway Park mound at the end of the sixth inning last night having whiffed eight of the final 16 batters he faced while allowing just three balls out of the infield.

In many ways, with regard to Beckett and Lester as a tandem, we are only beginning to witness their potential power. In 2007, when Beckett was at the top of his game, Lester was still a promising prospect who was attempting to come back from cancer. Last year, as Lester blossomed, Beckett was slowed by a succession of nagging injuries. There was a brief time in September where Beckett seemed healthy and their arms were aligned, but Beckett subsequently suffered an oblique injury that ultimately thwarted the Red Sox’ run at another world title.

Now, both appear to be firing on all cylinders and vaporizing opponents, averaging a whopping 12.11 strikeouts per nine innings over their last five starts combined.

The Yankees, in particular, understand the potential impact of a synchronized Beckett and Lester, and not solely because Beckett took them apart last night. In some ways, New York’s entire offseason spending spree was necessary to help neutralize Boston’s two best starters. Before signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees didn’t really have one starter to match up with Boston, let alone two. And as we all know, that will be especially true in the postseason -- for any team -- because rotations shorten by 20 percent or more.

In this case, the obvious difference is that Lester and Beckett are effectively products of the Red Sox farm system -- Beckett (and Mike Lowell) came in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, among others -- while the Yankees rebuilt the front end of their rotation exclusively on the free agent market. That should serve as an additional reminder that the Red Sox have acted in recent years while the Yankees have reacted, further explaining how the teams have completely changed roles in this millennium.

Regardless, the clubs are tied for first place in the American League East. And given the relative mediocrity that now seems to have infected the balance of the AL, it is quite likely that we are currently watching the two best teams in the league this year.

For the Red Sox, over the balance of 2009, the value of a proficient Beckett-Lester tandem is obvious. If the Sox can win with regularity when those two starters go to the mound, they need only go 1-2 through the remainder of their rotation to play .600 baseball. And now that Francona has spacers between his righthanded ace and his lefthanded one, the manager can more aggressively use his deeply stacked bullpen on the other three days, be it for Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny or John Smoltz.

For a manager, that can make handling a pitching staff a relative walk in the park.

You just put one ace in front of the other.

Even now, as Mark Teixeira continues to pound away at opposing pitchers at a frantic rate, the impact of his arrival in the American League East has yet to be felt. For the Red Sox, after all, Teixeira was not as much about the present as he was about the future.

And so, amid the never-ending saga of David Ortiz, it's important to keep in mind that Teixeira never would have replaced Ortiz, anyway. Teixeira would have been at first base and Kevin Youkilis at third, leaving Mike Lowell on the outside of a Red Sox lineup that currently ranks seventh in the American League in runs scored. But come the end of this season, particularly if the Red Sox fail to retain Jason Bay, the Yankees' signing of Teixeira at the Red Sox' expense could loom as a pivotal turning point in baseball’s fiercest division.

At the moment, as the Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to begin a three-game series at Fenway Park tonight, Teixeira is at the top of his game. In his last 32 games, he is batting .349 with 15 home runs, 41 RBIs, 28 runs scored, and a 1.204 OPS. He and fellow bonus baby CC Sabathia have hit stride to lead the Yankees into first place in the AL East, producing the results the Bombers expected when shelling out a potential of roughly $350 million to those two players in long-term contracts.

"I knew Sabathia and Teixeira’s history as slow starters,’’ Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said over the weekend. "Those guys usually take a while to get going, and then you have to add in [the effect of] the transition to New York. Off the top of my head, the only player I can think of who didn’t have a transition was Johnny Damon. He performed from Day 1 pretty much, but he came from a high-octane situation in Boston.’’

Indeed, from Jose Contreras and Curt Schilling to Alex Rodriguez and Damon, the history of the Red Sox and Yankees has been intertwined in recent years. When the Yankees signed Damon, for instance, the Red Sox wagered that Coco Crisp would be more productive by 2009 than Damon would be, particularly when Damon’s cost ballooned to $13 million per season. As it has turned out, Crisp is now in Kansas City (traded for the valuable Ramon Ramirez) while, since the start of 2007, Damon has performed as well as (or better than?) J.D. Drew, whose $14 million annual average salary is the highest on the Boston roster.

Since the start of 2007, Damon is batting .289 with a .365 on-base percentage, .449 slugging percentage and .814 OPS to go along with 41 home runs, 168 RBIs and 234 runs scored in 337 games. Drew has batted .272 with a .388 on-base percentage, .468 slugging percentage and .876 OPS to go along with 38 home runs, 155 RBIs and 195 runs scored in 299 games. While Damon becomes a free agent this fall, Drew will remain under contract through 2011.

This brings us back to Teixeira, who might have been the centerpiece of the Boston lineup for years to come. Given the struggles of Ortiz, the Sox’ failure to sign Teixeira now leaves them with something of a long-term predicament offensively. While top prospect Lars Anderson has picked things up recently at Double A Portland -- he is batting .389 with five doubles and a home run in his last nine games -- there is still no telling when or if Anderson will be a productive major leaguer. Even then, Anderson will need help beyond Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, which seemingly gives Jason Bay even greater leverage with the Sox as he approaches free agency as the best positional player on the free agent market.

Given the resources with which the Red Sox operate, we all know that they forever will have options, and Theo Epstein rarely fails to have an alternative plan for virtually every scenario. So long as the Sox have a big payroll and a productive farm system – kudos to the baseball operations department for this – they will have wherewithal to enhance the big-league roster with signings and trades. Still, given the amount of dead money the Sox now have on the roster -- Ortiz, Lugo and Drew will earn a combined average of $36 million per season, this year and next -- it now seems downright silly that the Sox may have lost out on Teixeira for as little as $2 million a year, especially when Teixeira would not have required a forfeiture of talent like that they sacrificed in, say, the Josh Beckett deal (Hanley Ramirez).

Many of us don’t regret the Beckett move and never will. But the point is that the Red Sox might have had Teixeira for nothing more than money, which now seems like an even better deal at a time when the Sox have some wasted money on their payroll.

At the moment, the Sox are doing fine without Teixeira, thanks largely to Mike Lowell’s return from hip surgery. (Where would the 2009 Sox be without him?) In 2009, at least, Ortiz was going to be here one way or the other. But as the Red Sox move forward, closer to the end of Bay’s contract with the team, those negotiations are going to take on considerable importance for a club that must either pay him or sacrifice the talent to replace him.

Should it come to that, you’d be wise to look much deeper than what happened with Jason Bay. You’d be wise to look further, perhaps all the way back to Mark Teixeira.

Since you last saw them, the New York Yankees essentially have outplayed the Red Sox in every area: pitching, hitting, defense. Now the Yankees have to prove they can do it when the Red Sox share the field with them.

Snapshot: Sox and Yankees since they last met: Games 30 30 Record 20-10 16-14 ERA 4.00 3.96 Runs 172 146 Runs per game 5.7 4.9 Batting average .279 .266 On-base pct. .356 .342 Slugging .495 .440 Errors 11 18

"Off the top of my head, we had a chance to win all of those games," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said over the weekend when asked about his club’s 0-5 record against the Sox this year. "I can’t remember [the specifics] of all five, but I remember that in most of them we had our chances. I didn’t feel like we got blown out. Things could have gone either way, but Boston found a way when we didn’t. Hopefully we can change that."

You want the particulars? Since the Red Sox left the new Yankee Stadium following a 7-3 win on May 5 -- it was a 4-3 game heading into the eighth -- each club has played 30 games. The Yankees are 20-10 with a 4.00 ERA and the Red Sox are 16-14, 3.96. The Yankees have scored 172 runs, the Red Sox 146. The Yankees have made 11 errors, the Red Sox 18.

In the standings, a Yankees team that was once 4.5 games out of first place and 3.5 games behind the Sox has since moved into first place by a half-game entering tonight's finale of a four-game series with Tampa Bay.

After tonight, the Yankees come to Boston, where they have not won a meaningful game since July 26 of last year. (New York took 2 of 3 on the final weekend of the 2008 regular season, but the games were worthless.) The Yankees continue to face the question the Red Sox faced for decades -- can they defeat their chief division rivals? -- and the pressure appears to be entirely on New York as the Yankees plan to arrive for a three-game series that begins at Fenway Park tomorrow night.

These are not the same Yankees you saw in late April and early May, though the New York bullpen remains a major concern. (More on that in a moment.) Behind the slow-starting Mark Teixeira (more on him tomorrow), the Yankees have been hitting most everything in sight, particularly in their ostentatious new home, which seems to have been modeled after a certain field in Williamsport, Pa. Like Teixeira, luxury-tax purchase CC Sabathia has found his stride in the last four or five weeks and the Yankees recently set a major league record for consecutive games without an error (18).

For all the things New York has improved upon in recent weeks, the defense stands out. In the five games against the Red Sox this year, the Yankees made seven errors -- including at least one in all five games -- and looked like a bad lounge act. Lately, the Yankees have been catching virtually everything within distance, a transformation that also relates directly to the moves they made during the offseason.

While Teixeira was expected to be an enormous upgrade over Jason Giambi at first base, the biggest changes have come in center and right fields. Cashman went out of his way to laud the defensive play of center fielder Melky Cabrera and right fielder Nick Swisher, the latter of whom was acquired in an offseason trade with the Chicago White Sox. And then, of course, there was the return of third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who missed the first two Red Sox series in the wake of a steroids conviction and suddenly fashionable hip surgery.

Once Rodriguez came back, it seemed, the defense improved and the lineup got infinitely deeper. Save for the bullpen, even the pitching seemed to get straightened out.

"We’ve gotten healthier," Cashman said when asked about the biggest change in New York since early May. "Teixeira’s gotten on track and A-Rod has come back. We’ve played great defense. It’s been a bunch of different things. The addition of Teixeira and Swisher has significantly improved out defense on the right side of the field."

This brings us back to the bullpen, an ongoing problem that the Yankees have masked for the better part of the last month. Over the last two weeks, in particular, New York starters have averaged roughly 6 1/3 innings per start. Sabathia alone has averaged nearly eight innings per outing since the Red Sox last left New York. Yankees manager Joe Girardi has had the luxury of being far more selective with his bullpen, something that did not happen when the Red Sox teed off against Yankees relievers early in the year.

In this series, the performance of the Yankees starters will be critical. Girardi still has few reliable options in his bullpen, but he’ll be able to play matchups in the seventh while relying heavily on Mariano Rivera and Alfredo Aceves (4-1, 2.37 ERA since the last Sox series) in the last two innings to close out wins if the Yankees can get good performances from their starting pitchers.

If not? Batten down the hatches. Overall, the Red Sox rank first in the American League in bullpen ERA while the Yankees still rank 13th.

"I can’t tell you our bullpen’s fixed," Cashman admitted. "We’ve been winning and on this run because our starting pitching, defense and offense. I don’t know if [the bullpen] is sorted out. Early in the year, our starters were going five innings. Now they’re going seven or eight innings. Our bullpen was tired and beaten up."

Now, as luck would have it, the Red Sox are the ones looking a little battered. J.D. Drew missed the final two games of the weekend after getting a cortisone injection in his left shoulder. Yesterday, Jacoby Ellsbury jammed his right shoulder and had to leave the game. The Sox have had defensive issues at shortstop all year and, suddenly, have batted just .194 over their past five games.

Now, once again, the Yankees are coming into town.

For New York, this is the time to prove something.

Two weeks ago, as the Toronto Blue Jays took batting practice before a game at Fenway Park, a longtime American League evaluator took stock. The Blue Jays had some talent, he said. But what they lacked was the competitiveness, drive, and self-assurance that the Red Sox have worked so hard to establish.

Then the Jays went out and got swept.

And so, as the Red Sox return home tonight following a 6-4 road trip that ended with a wipeout of the Detroit Tigers, let the most recent events serve as a reminder: For all of the talent the Red Sox have featured in recent years, they have demonstrated a commendable resiliency, too. The Red Sox are on pace for 96 victories this season, but the truth is that they have not yet come close to playing their best baseball. Overall, while the early stages of this Sox season have resulted in as many questions as answers, the Sox have continued to plod along, aimed at October, typically unwilling to make excuses or alibis.

"We haven't been playing very well on the road,'’ Tim Wakefield told reporters following yesterday’s 6-3 win. "To come away 6-4 on this road trip -- it's been a long one. To win three against the first-place team in the Central is huge."

Especially when there is that sense that things might be starting to come apart a little.

We all know how this works. In many ways, football, basketball, and hockey are physically more demanding sports than baseball, but none of them can break you down mentally quite like baseball can. Try doing the same thing for 20 days in a row and see how you feel. Then take a day off and go for another 14 days. Then take another day off and go for another 10. Along the way, when things don’t go right, we’re willing to bet you’ll be slamming doors and kicking over trash cans for the simple fact that you need a break.

The Red Sox? Somehow, some way, they find ways to keep winning games. David Ortiz is so mixed up that he can’t see straight -- he is now planning to get his eyes checked -- and the starting rotation was a mess for the first six weeks of the season. Every ground ball hit to shortstop has been like a ride at Disney. Kevin Youkilis went on the disabled list. Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t looked remotely like himself. The Red Sox have averaged nearly two more runs per game at home (6.30, first in the majors) than on the road (4.61, 13th).

Do not underestimate the importance of the series sweep at Detroit. As Red Sox manager Terry Francona indicated when the Sox left Toronto last weekend, the numbers are all starting to mean something now. The Tigers are a first-place team -- regardless of their division -- and they ranked among the top of the AL in pitching since the year began. The Sox subsequently stole the series opener before riding Josh Beckett to a victory in Game 2, then let the Tigers (specifically Dontrelle Willis) spit up on themselves in yesterday’s finale.

Of course, that kind of formula is entirely consistent with how the Sox have done things over the last several years. In 2007, when the Sox systematically marched through the regular season behind a dominating bullpen, Francona made an observation that went something like this: If you win the games you should and a few of the ones you shouldn’t, you should be OK. By that, Francona did not mean that the Red Sox should beat up on weak teams so much as they should close out games in which they have late leads, something at which the club has become extremely proficient.

For example: With yesterday’s win, the Sox are now 25-1 when leading after six innings. Their only loss came on May 23, when New York Mets catcher Omir Santos all but closed his eyes and homered off Papelbon in the top of the ninth. The Sox’ only other memorable slip-up came in Seattle earlier last month, when Nick Green’s throwing error contributed mightily to a Red Sox loss.

Games like that are acceptable so long as they remain aberrational. Once they become a pattern -- and, thus, the sign of a bigger problem -- it’s time to worry.

On the flip side, the Sox stole a few games early in the year, too. During one stretch, while their starting pitchers were playing pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, the Sox overcame deficits of 7-0 (against the Orioles), 6-0 (against the Yankees), and 5-0 (against the Indians) to prevail. In retrospect, those games were not nearly the fluke that the Sox’ late-inning failures were, if only for the fact that the Red Sox generally have a better lineup than their opposition to go along with a better bullpen.

You see? They win the games they should -- and a few of the ones they shouldn’t.

There has been luck involved, too. The Sox have played the Jays in two series this year and missed Roy Halladay both times. With the Detroit Tigers, they somehow managed to dodge reigning AL Pitcher of the Month Justin Verlander and the budding Edwin Jackson. At the same time, as usual, the Sox exploited every advantage they got.

Entering tonight’s game at Fenway, the Sox have played fewer home games than any team in the American League. They possess the best home winning percentage in the AL. Boston will play 12 of its next 15 games in the angular confines of Fenway Park, where they have posted the best home record (334-175, a .656 winning percentage) in baseball during the Theo Epstein era. The starting pitching seems to have come together. A new batting order seems to be working. The Sox were 2-4 on their recent road trip before grinding their way to a 6-4 mark, only fortifying a reputation that has been built over the last several years.

If you want to win in Boston, you have to beat the Red Sox.

After all, regardless of how well or poorly they are playing, the Red Sox are not simply going to give it to you.

About two or three times a year, you still feel as if you’re getting called into the principal’s office. In these instances, Terry Francona usually sits behind his desk and tactfully tells you how clueless you are for something you’ve said, written, or done.

And then it’s over, never to be mentioned again.

Now entering the 53d game of the sixth year of the Terry Francona Era, the Red Sox possess a 30-22 record today. More than at any other time in modern Red Sox history, the skipper’s job is safe. Francona has just begun a three-year, $12 million contract extension that runs through 2011 with club options for 2012 and 2013, and last night he became just the third manager in Red Sox history to record 500 wins with the team.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona reached 500 wins with the club Tuesday night. (AP Photo)

By the end of this season, assuming things go the way the Red Sox hope and expect, Francona will overtake Mike Higgins (560) and trail only Joe Cronin (1,071) for career wins by a Red Sox manager. The long line of Red Sox skippers again will be recalibrated, and Francona will take his place alongside the immortal Cronin.

Think about that for a moment. The Red Sox have existed for more than a century. And by the end of this season, it is likely that only one manager will have won more games than the man currently occupying the clubhouse office at Fenway Park.

More than the followers of any team in sports, Red Sox fans should know better than to take this kind of stability for granted. Until Francona completed his fifth campaign in Boston last year, no Red Sox manager since Cronin (1935-47) had lasted as many as five consecutive seasons. During the 60-year gap between those two men, despite the protestations of the many who argued that the Red Sox were constantly undermining themselves, Red Sox ownership and management effectively ran one of the more historic franchises in sports as if it were a banana republic.

From Dick Williams to Darrell Johnson to John McNamara to Jimy Williams, the solution was always the same: out with the old and in with the new. Managers came and managers went. The Sox often had internal issues that went down to the bone, and yet they continued to treat them with band-aids and antiseptic ointment. Why deal with the real problems when you can just fire the skippah?

In this way, the current Sox ownership (headed by John Henry) and management (led by Larry Lucchino and Theo Epstein) deserve credit for treating Francona the way that Sox managers should have been treated long ago. Once the Sox got through the Grady Little years -- in retrospect, what was he but a transitional figure? -- the Sox have stood by their manager. In 2006, when the Sox disintegrated in the final weeks, nobody really blamed the manager. And after the World Series win in 2007, the Sox finally elevated their managerial position to elite status by giving the Red Sox manager the kind of cachet and contract extension that this town and this team should long ago have possessed.

After all, these aren’t the Colorado Rockies we’re talking about here. Or the San Diego Padres. Or the Texas Rangers. During all those years, between Cronin and Francona, the Red Sox did as much harm to themselves as any opponent did.

With regard to Francona, in particular, we all had out doubts about him when the Red Sox hired him in November 2003. Given the manner in which his many predecessors were handled, it was impossible to believe that he was The One. Francona’s only previous managerial experience was with a wretched Philadelphia Phillies outfit that made him virtually impossible to evaluate, and the immediate aftermath of Little’s exiling had brought all of New England to new depths of hopelessness.

Nearly six years later, Francona has won more games than any big league manager but Joe Torre (507). In postseason play, Francona is 4-0 against Tony LaRussa, and 9-1 against Mike Scioscia, two of the more highly regarded managers in baseball. (He is 4-3 against Torre.) The Red Sox have won two world titles and been to the postseason four times in five years during Francona’s tenure. Overall, they are 28-14 in postseason play.

Along the way, lest there be any suggestion that this was all a pleasure cruise, the Red Sox clubhouse has been relatively devoid of managerial scandal and controversy. Players have not backbitten Francona like they did Kevin Kennedy or Williams. Management has not privately questioned him the way they did Little. Francona generally has preserved all relationships by keeping open lines of communication, a testament to how much he values relationships of all kinds.

His players like him. So do his coaches. The same generally is true of his bosses and the media, which suggests that Francona has an ability to communicate effectively with all walks of life, regardless of whether he is expressing his approval or displeasure.

Does this make Francona perfect? Hell no. He would be the first to tell you that. Francona is so cognizant of the impact his actions can have on others -- this is especially true of any manager -- that he can internalize things too much. That can be unhealthy. Depending on his level of stress, he sometimes can be a stickler for trivial details -- the precise wording of questions, for example -- even when he knows and understand the general intent or point. He and his bosses can sometimes get on each other’s nerves -- this is quite normal, of course -- and he doesn’t particularly like criticism.

At the end of the day, all of that only makes him human.

In Boston, as we all know, the skipper of the Red Sox is under constant scrutiny. Starting with your father, there are far more people who think they can manage the Sox than there are those who truly have the slightest clue. Many of them call talk shows or send Francona nasty e-mails. On the bad days, Francona curses out those folks. On the good days, he accepts them as part of the landscape in a market where the Red Sox uniform stirs up passions like no other, helping to explain why the job he holds historically has been characterized by instability and volatility.

Tonight, Francona goes for Red Sox career win No. 501.

Generally speaking, he has led a relatively placid and productive Red Sox existence.

In Boston, after all, you simply cannot last this long -- and win this many games -- without doing something right.

In a manner of speaking, the Red Sox today rest at the first intermission. Two months down, four months to go. And while the Red Sox will not play their 54th game until Thursday -- which will put them precisely one-third of the way through their schedule -- the team has reached the first critical checkpoint of the 2009 season.

After all, as Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane reminded us in "Moneyball," the first two months of the season are for evaluation; the next two months are for modification; the last two months are for spirited competition.

For what it is worth at this stage, the Red Sox currently would qualify for the postseason as the American League wild card team despite an array of issues, ranging from the surprising inconsistency of the starting rotation to the demise of David Ortiz. Overall, things could be better ... but they also could be worse. Here is a look at the Sox' performance to date and potential needs approaching the annual July 31 trading deadline.

STARTING PITCHING

Analysis: Candidly speaking, the first six weeks were an enormous disappointment. With or without Daisuke Matsuzaka, Sox starters were one of the worst groups in the American League. Much of that was due to the simultaneous ineffectiveness of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the vaunted 1-2 of the Boston rotation against whom most everyone was to have difficulty matching up. Still, in the last two weeks, the performance has improved considerably with Sox starters posting a 3.57 ERA in their last 15 games. Beckett seems to have hit his stride, and Lester was dominant Sunday.

How the Red Sox can improve: With John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings -- coupled with the overall improvement -- the Red Sox are not likely to make any additions here from outside the organization. The Sox felt that they could address any pitching needs this year from within the organization and that still seems the most prudent course of action, especially considering some of their other issues.

Sure, Jake Peavy is out there and the Sox have prospects to deal. But in theory, at least, they don't really need Peavy as much as they need some other things. In fact, the Sox may be in a position where they must seriously entertain trading Brad Penny (ineligible to be dealt until June 15 without his permission) because he may not fit into either their rotation or bullpen. Michael Bowden and Buchholz also could be candidates for trade, though Buchholz only would be offered if the Sox could land a big-time hitter in return.

Your turn:

BULLPEN

Analysis: Do the Red Sox want to risk tinkering with this? Through May, based on ERA, Boston does not merely have the top-ranked bullpen in the American League; the Red Sox have the top-ranked AL bullpen by nearly a full run per game. At the moment, the Chicago White Sox (3.79 ERA) rank second to the Red Sox (2.96). In fact, in all of baseball, the New York Mets (2.95) are the only other team with a relief ERA under 3.00.

How the Red Sox can improve: If we wanted to get picky here, we might suggest that the Sox could be in the market for a true lefthanded specialist, though Ramon Ramirez (.122 average), Hideki Okajima (.135), Takashi Saito (.176) and Jonathan Papelbon (.186) have been so good against lefties that it doesn't really matter. Furthermore, Javier Lopez is at Pawtucket and so, too, is Hunter Jones, the latter of whom limited lefties to a .188 average (3 for 16).

Now, with Justin Masterson back in a relief role and Daniel Bard developing, the Sox seem to have depth from which to deal, specifically in the form of Delcarmen or, perhaps, Masterson. At the same time, most every team in baseball will have difficulty matching up with the Sox after the fifth inning as the Boston staff is currently constituted, which is a huge advantage for manager Terry Francona.

Your turn:

OFFENSE

Analysis: Even before the Red Sox entered this season, they anticipated some problems offensively. What they did not expect was for Ortiz to dip so dramatically, to the point where we must now wonder whether he can effectively serve as an everyday player. Suffering a drop in production is one thing, but Ortiz (.185, one home run) has fallen through the floor and left such a sizable hole that there is now water leaking into the basement.

How the Red Sox can improve: From Matt Holliday and Adrian Gonzalez to Victor Martinez and Mark DeRosa, the Sox will have options here. It really is up to them to determine how much they want to sacrifice in the way of young talent. The pronounced disparity between home and road production is worrisome, particularly one when considers that Ortiz is hitting .161 away from Fenway Park. That suggests DH is the best place to make an impact, and the absolute best-case scenario would involve the Sox acquiring a younger and/or offensive-minded catcher (Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia) who could help them address needs in the both the short term (offensively) and the long (behind the plate).

Thus far, the Red Sox have had below average production from three spots on the diamond based on OPS: designated hitter, shortstop, and center field. Given Jacoby Ellsbury's youth and game-changing speed, the first two seem like areas of priority. Addressing either would require the club to eat quite a bit in salary because both Ortiz ($13 million this year and next) and Julio Lugo ($9 million this year and next) are signed through 2010, but the Sox have shown a willingness to do that in the past (Edgar Renteria). Some of what the Sox choose here may well depend on how the rest of their roster comes together.

Your turn:

BENCH

Analysis: In an ideal world, assuming health, this is the bench the Red Sox would have opened the season with: Rocco Baldelli, Jed Lowrie, Mark Kotsay, and George Kottaras. Whether we actually see that group is open to debate. Thus far, all but Kottaras have spent time on the disabled list, and the absences of Lowrie and Kotsay have made the issues at shortstop and designated hitter more pronounced.

No one is suggesting that Kotsay can replace Ortiz. Still, with a healthy Kotsay (career .751 OPS), the Sox could at least erase the automatic out that Ortiz has become. Kotsay's offensive and defensive abilities could allow Kevin Youkilis to spend some time at third and Mike Lowell some time at DH, the latter of which might help Lowell later in the year. Baldelli has an .877 OPS against lefthanded pitching so far this year and could further add to the mix, giving Francona as many as five players (if you still count Ortiz) for three spots.

How the Red Sox can improve: Acquiring someone like the versatile DeRosa (career .855 OPS against lefties) is quite appealing, largely because he would cost less in the way of talent, is eligible for free agency at the end of the year and would give the Sox that most desirable of all assets: flexibility, flexibility, flexibility. Further, DeRosa would help safeguard against injury to Baldelli, whose health will always be something of a concern.

In recent years, for all that Theo Epstein has done to improve the Sox at various trading deadlines, some of his best decisions have been lesser maneuvers that have improved the bench and overall depth. Dave Roberts, Bobby Kielty and Kotsay were all acquisitions of the like. As much as fans might like a big move, Epstein might be more inclined to keep all of his best prospects, especially if the pitching does the expected and carries the team.

Your turn:

DEFENSE

Analysis: The obvious priority is shortstop, which brings us to Lowrie. Regardless of whether you are talking about zone rating, fielding percentage, range factor, plus-minus or error totals, the Red Sox defense at shortstop thus far has been horrendous. If the Sox believe that Lowrie can play in the final two months, he should be able to help them immeasurably by merely taking the field. What he gives them offensively should be regarded as a bonus.

Overall, the defense on this club has been a disappointment, though shortstop has been a big reason. Still, with Lowell having lost something in the wake of hip surgery, the left side of the infield has been a problem. And while Jason Bay is worlds better than Manny Ramirez in left field, he is, on the whole, a relatively average defensive player. As much as we all love Bay -- and he has been sensational in Boston -- Ramirez's ineptitude has made him look a little better than he actually is.

How the Red Sox can improve: If Lowrie hits a stumbling in his recovery, the Sox should be able to pick up a defensive-minded shortstop even after July 31, depending on who is available. Someone like Omar Vizquel might be on the market depending on whether the Texas Rangers are in contention late in the year, or Epstein could always opt for someone like he did in 2004 (Orlando Cabrera in a more sizable move) or 2007 (Royce Clayton in a lesser one).

Your turn:

Defensive trend to watch: The Sox must improve at slowing the opposing running game. To date, Sox catchers have thrown out just 7 of 66 base stealers and the Sox have allowed a major league leading 59 steals. Sox pitchers have caught almost as many base stealers (six) as the catchers have, five of those coming on pickoffs by Lester.

As most anyone in baseball will tell you, stolen bases are not solely a reflection on the catcher. Rather, they are a reflection on the battery, particularly as it pertains to a pitcher's ability to hold runners. Take away Lester and Masterson, and opponents are a whopping 46 of 50 in steal attempts against the rest of the Boston staff. That is, in a word, abysmal.

In Kenmore or in Canada, the answer remains the same. Jason Varitek has no interest in discussing his offensive resurgence.

"I just want to focus on playing,’’ the Red Sox catcher conveyed last night by text message shortly after the Red Sox arrived in Toronto.

Can you blame him?

Slightly less than two months into the 2009 season, Varitek this morning has 10 home runs, more than any catcher in major league baseball. Even Twins catcher Joe Mauer has just seven homers in games he has started behind the plate. (Mauer has 11 overall.) The Red Sox are getting above-average production from their catcher again, if not from their designated hitter, fortifying the argument that baseball frequently gives back what it takes away.

Now consider this: Of the 24 American League playoff teams in the last six seasons, 18 have finished in the top half of the league in OPS from the catching position. Last year, while the Red Sox slipped to 13th in the AL in that category, the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, and Tampa Bay Rays all finished in the top five, magnifying the importance of getting something from what is generally regarded as a defensive position in a league where offense often has reigned.

For Varitek and the Red Sox, the most important question is obvious: Can this continue? A year ago at this time, Varitek had only just begun a precipitous 61-game nosedive during which he batted a positively abysmal .158 while amassing more than twice as many strikeouts (63) as hits (31). The slump might have been slightly more palatable had Varitek hit more than two home runs, precisely the same number he collected in yesterday’s 3-1 Red Sox win over the Twins at the Metrodome.

With yesterday’s eruption, Varitek has hit six home runs in the latter half of this month. He has a pair of two-homer games, one in which he homered twice from the right side (May 20 vs. Toronto), the other in which he homered twice from the left (yesterday). Nobody is suggesting that Varitek will continue the pace that currently has him on track to belt 34 home runs, but that is not the point. The greater issue is that the 37-year-old is not an automatic out at the moment, something that has been invaluable to the club given the demise of David Ortiz.

We are all quite aware of what Varitek has endured over the past year. Last summer, his career and marriage seemed to simultaneously disintegrate. The parallel paths of Varitek’s decline finally converged late during the winter, when Varitek was negotiating with the Red Sox while going through mediation in the midst of his divorce proceedings. He emerged from it all with a one-year, $5 million contract containing a dual option for next season that could bring the value of the deal to a minimum of $8 million, a maximum of $10 million.

Since that point, he has acted and played like a man with a clear mind.

This spring, in fact, one Sox official marveled at Varitek’s "outlook," which is to say the club was impressed by the workmanlike manner in which Varitek approached camp. There was no grousing about the fact that manager Terry Francona pinch hit for him during the last postseason. There was no grumbling about being mistreated in contract talks. There was no whining about the possibility of a decreased role as the Red Sox seek to make the transition to their next generation of catcher, all of which was talked about in the midst of discussions between Varitek and the Red Sox over the winter.

Varitek knows the score here. He has never been one to shirk responsibility. He knows that credibility must be won on a daily basis, and he has never once given the Red Sox something less than his best effort while between the lines on any field.

But then, that is why he is their captain.

As everyone knows, there is still a great deal of baseball to be played this season. Varitek currently is on pace to play 118 regular season games, the fewest of his Red Sox career as a starter (except in seasons during which he suffered a significant injury). One of the Red Sox’ goals this season was to make Varitek more efficient by cutting back his playing time so he could be more productive in September. Varitek has a .229 career average in September, his lowest of any month.

Whether Varitek’s resurgence follows the current path certainly is open to question, but we all know what the captain of the Red Sox has accomplished here. Amid questions about whether he should consider batting righthanded full-time, Varitek instead took on the challenge of reinventing himself entirely from the left side of the plate. Two months into the season, with results to show for it, maybe the catcher of the Red Sox has done a great deal more than to reinvent himself at the plate.

Maybe, too, has revived his own career.

Fortunately for the Boston Red Sox, during the seeming demise of David Americo Ortiz, the career of Jason Raymond Bay has gone into full bloom. Like Ortiz, Bay came to Boston from the relative obscurity of a smaller market. Like Ortiz, he has turned Fenway Park into his very own Broadway stage.

Free-agent-to-be Jason Bay is making himself a lot of money with his performance this season. (AP Photo)

Right before our eyes, Bay is turning into a superstar.

"I think I'm doing the same things that I was doing before, but obviously it's a different market, different circumstances, a different situation," Bay said last week while sitting in the Red Sox dugout. "Like I said last year, you're always going to have questions about somebody's ability to play in a big market, play in the playoffs, whatever. You can debate it until you're blue in the face, but until you do it, it doesn't matter."

So here we are, 94 games into his relatively brief Red Sox career, and Bay seems to have seamlessly fallen into Boston's line of kings in left field. From Williams to Yastrzemski to Rice to Ramirez, the Red Sox this season are celebrating 70 years of continued productivity from their left fielders. Remember, in between Rice and Ramirez, the Red Sox got some good years from Mike Greenwell, and Troy O'Leary was at least a capable placeholder.

Now comes Bay, a man whom manager Terry Francona has described as "conscientious" and who has plugged holes like the little Dutch boy. He has displaced Ramirez in the outfield; he hits in the clutch like the Ortiz of old. Bay is giving to Boston and Boston is giving to him, and all that giving has turned a relatively unheralded member of the Pittsburgh Pirates into one of the most celebrated talents in baseball.

In Pittsburgh, a supporting man like Nate McLouth can only go so far. In Boston, Bay stars.

"You have to be careful not to slander or disparage where I came from because I have nothing bad to say," Bay said of Pittsburgh, echoing remarks he made upon being traded to Boston last summer in the final act of the Ramirez drama. "But as of last year, Pittsburgh wasn't winning."

The Pirates aren't winning now, either. And barring a dramatic change from the elements that have produced an astonishing 16 straight losing seasons, the Pirates aren't going to win anytime soon, either.

Entering tonight's game between the Red Sox and Minnesota Twins at the evaporating Metrodome, Bay is the only man on the Boston roster to have played in all 45 games this season. He has reached base via hit or walk in 40 of them. Bay has the best at-bat-to-RBI ratio in the entire major leagues (3.38) and he has more RBIs (47) than games played or hits (46). (He had two more RBIs in yesterday's 6-5 win.) The man has been nothing short of a run-producing machine, also going a perfect 5 for 5 on steal opportunities to make him a stunning 51 of 55 in steals since the start of the 2005 season.

Bay even has shown an improved ability to drive the ball to the opposite field, something Francona acknowledged following a victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park last week.

At the moment, the only thing Bay lacks is a contract beyond this season, something he and the Red Sox explored only briefly during spring training. If Bay's market was difficult to define at that time, as Sox general manager Theo Epstein indicated, it could be a good deal more difficult to define come the end of the season. While the Red Sox were able to sign Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jon Lester to long-term deals over the winter, the Sox privately indicated that they would wait for free agent hitters to sign before making a play on Bay. When Bobby Abreu (one year, $5 million with the Los Angeles Angels), Pat Burrell (two years, $16 million with Tampa Bay) and Adam Dunn (two years, $20 million) subsequently agreed to terms, the market was far more favorable to the Red Sox than it was to the player.

So, naturally, Bay did the wise thing. He chose to wait. He has since pounded most everything in sight at a rate that could make him the most desirable free agent on the market after this year.

While the precise terms of any Sox offer to Bay are unknown -- both sides are being especially mum on the topic, suggesting neither wants to damage the relationship -- it is not unreasonable to think the club offered the player a two- or three-year deal worth roughly $10 million a season. (This is a guess.) If and when the time comes, the Red Sox may have a hard time denying Bay the $14 million per-season average they paid J.D. Drew -- this is one of the more damning aspects of the Drew deal -- though that deal was signed in a much different economic climate.

Whatever the particulars, this much is clear: Bay can play in a big market and he can produce with the big boys. Since joining the Sox last summer, Bay has knocked in more runs (84) than Drew has in any one season of his Red Sox career (it's not even close -- Drew had 64 RBIs in 2007 and 2008) and he has scored nearly as many runs (75) as Drew did in his best Red Sox season (84 in 2007). While Drew was 30 at the time he signed with the Sox, Bay will be 31 before this season ends.

Get the picture?

Last summer, in the wake of the Ramirez affair, Bay came to Boston towing a Samsonite full of questions. Over the last several months, as he unpacked and settled, he has pretty much answered them all. Bay batted .341 with a 1.105 OPS in the postseason and has batted everywhere from third to sixth in Francona's lineup. He has proven to be the kind of offensive force that can help drive the Red Sox offense.

All the way around, the relationship has been beneficial. What has been good for the Red Sox has been good for Jason Bay.

Come the fall, shouldn't that be enough to inspire them all to continue on?

Roughly one quarter of the way through this 2009 season, the Red Sox are on pace for 99 victories. The Sox have won all of the games they should have and some of the ones they shouldn’t, which is precisely the formula they used in 2007.

That year, thanks to a bullpen that was the strength of the team, the Red Sox essentially led wire-to-wire en route to their second world title in four seasons. So far, this team is on a similar path. With last night’s 5-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park, the Red Sox improved to 25-16 overall and a perfect 19-0 when leading after six innings, the latter of which is an obvious reflection on their ability to protect leads.

Toss in comebacks like the ones the Sox had against the Orioles and Yankees earlier this season, and what you have is a simple formula that looks like a hardball version of paint-by-numbers.

Which brings us to…

16-4 The Red Sox’ record at home, where they continue to steamroll opponents during the Theo Epstein Era. This year, the Sox are taking their home field advantage to a new level. Since the season-opening series against Tampa Bay, the Red Sox are 15-2 at home. In those games, they are batting .318 with 118 runs (an average of 6.9 per contest) and a .951 OPS. That’s almost like sending Hanley Ramirez (.970 OPS) to the plate for every at-bat.

3 Occasions, at a minimum, in which the Red Sox demonstrated baserunning acumen in the series against the Jays. Last night, Jacoby Ellsbury advanced to third on a grounder to the left side and Dustin Pedroia made a terrific slide into second base on a double. On Tuesday, for all that was made of Mike Lowell’s decision to break for third base, J.D. Drew’s ability to read Lowell’s actions were just as important. Drew got to third on the play and then scored the second run on a sacrifice fly in what was an eventual 2-1 victory. The following day, Drew said he saw Lowell taking a big lead and anticipated the break, miraculous given Lowell’s lead-footed nature. Another runner might have been caught by surprise and failed to advance. And rightfully so.

12 Double plays Lowell has grounded into this season, tops in the majors. Lowell is on pace to hit into 47 double plays, obliterating the major league record of 36 set by Jim Rice in 1984.

302 Runs batted in by Lowell during his Red Sox career, more than any other Sox player but David Ortiz (361) during that span. That is true despite the fact that Lowell was a shell of himself during the second half of last season. Lowell’s career average with the Sox is .296 (2006 to present). Prior to coming to Boston, in 2005, he batted .236.

3 Pitches seen by David Ortiz during his first two at-bats last night, during which Ortiz went 0 for 2 with a pair of groundouts. During his third at-bat, Ortiz got to the fifth pitch of the at-bat before ripping a curveball to right field for a single, a sign that is he is now, perhaps, staying back on breaking pitches. In his final at-bat, Ortiz lined out to second baseman/short fielder Aaron Hill on a fastball down and in, another good sign. For much of this season, Ortiz has been unable to hit the inside fastball and looked off-balance on off-speed pitches.

14 Pitches seen by Kevin Youkilis in his first two plate appearances last night, supporting the contention of one Blue Jays evaluator that Youkilis has the best at-bats in the American League. Earlier this week, when informed that the Sox played a 2-hour, 13-minute game behind Tim Wakefield on the night before Youkilis returned from the disabled list, Youkilis had another explanation. ``That’s because I wasn’t here,’’ he cracked.

44 Runs batted in by Jason Bay, who is demonstrating an improved ability to drive the ball to the opposite field despite obvious strength when pulling the ball. During his time in Boston, Bay has impressed Sox officials and teammates alike with his work ethic and professionalism, regardless of the situation. Earlier this year, when the Sox were getting blown out late in Anaheim, Bay backed up a play at third base and showed no signs of letting up. ``We noticed that,’’ captain Jason Varitek said of other Sox players.

1 Errors made by the Sox during the series with the Jays, a good sign, particularly at shortstop. Though the range on the left side of the infield remains a concern given past injuries to Lowell and Julio Lugo, the latter looks to be moving better than he did as recently as 10 days ago. Lowell, meanwhile, looks to be getting down the line much better than earlier in the season, when the effects of offseason hip surgery were quite evident.

180-34 Since Sept. 1, 2005, when Jonathan Papelbon ascended to set-up man status, the Red Sox’ record in Papelbon’s 214 career regular season appearances, a winning percentage of .841. Papelbon last night converted his 11th save in 11 opportunities this year, improving the Red Sox’ record to 16-2 in his 18 outings. Since becoming the Sox closer in 2006, Papelbon has converted 89.9 percent of all save opportunities, third among all closers in baseball (minimum 100 saves) behind only Mariano Rivera and Francisco Rodriguez.

Look at it this way: During the 1971-72 seasons, Carl Yastrzemski went without a homer for nearly twice as many games as David Ortiz just did.

"I know what Ortiz is going through" Yastrzemski said today by phone, one day after Ortiz ended his homerless drought at 38 games. "I went almost a year without hitting a home run."

And he lived to tell about it.

For the record, Yastrzemski’s streak lasted precisely 71 games, from September 1971 to July 1972, a period during which he played with a wrist injury. Yastrzemski was 32 at the time. He finished the '72 season with 12 home runs, the second-lowest total he posted during the first 20 years of his career.

If you’re looking for Yaz to give Ortiz advice on how top reclaim his power, here’s a tip: don’t. Generally speaking, players only give their opinions on other players when asked directly. If you’ve ever played golf with someone who starts analyzing your swing in the middle of a round, you probably know why.

Nonetheless, Yastrzemski acknowledged that, as a power hitter, he had to make adjustments as he got older. Beginning at roughly age 33 -- the same age Ortiz is now -- Yastrzemski said he had to modify his swing so that he consistently got "on top" of the baseball, which is to say he went from a slight uppercut to a flatter, more level swing. The idea was to make good contact more consistently because he simply did not have the swing mechanics to make consistently good contact on off-speed pitches.

"I could always hit the fastball, but I had to adjust to the breaking ball," Yastrzemski said. "I was very conscious, after I turned 33 or so, to get on top of the ball. Mentally, I had to completely push hitting homers out of my mind and focus on the line drive. When I was younger, I was more of a free swinger."

Though Yastrzemski never approached the levels of his prime years -- he hit 147 homers in four seasons from 1967-70 -- he was nonetheless productive in his later years. After the drought, he hit 162 home runs over his next 8 1/2 seasons.

For the Red Sox, with regard to replacing the offense they once received from David Ortiz, there are options. But as the Red Sox creep toward the middle stages of this 2009 season, one can only wonder just how appetizing their choices will be.

"I don’t think David’s career is over," third baseman Mike Lowell said last night following a 2-1 Red Sox win over the Toronto Blue Jays in which Ortiz went 0 for 3 with a walk and two more strikeouts. "I think he’s going to bounce back."

Fair enough. But what if he doesn’t?

The Red Sox are publicly saying all the right things, but do not be fooled. They are examining their options. Despite Ortiz’s struggles, the Sox enter tonight’s game against the Blue Jays on pace to win 96 games. They have the third-best record in the American League. The absence of Kevin Youkilis has made Ortiz’s failures all the more glaring, yet the Red Sox still have had one of the best offenses in the game, particularly at Fenway Park.

And yet, assuming the Sox' starting pitching pans out and their issues at shortstop stabilize -- and those are big ifs at the moment -- the club could be faced with no more pressing need than to replace the man who was an indispensable component of their teams from 2003-07.

As things stand, as a slumping designated hitter who accounts for $13 million of the payroll both this year and next, Ortiz is untradeable. Beyond that, he is a 10-5 man who has the power to veto any deal. Unless things change dramatically, that leaves the Red Sox with the option of either sitting Ortiz on the bench or placing him on the disabled list, the latter of which might require some creative bookkeeping but is not out of the question.

Should it come to replacing him, the question is this: How will they do so?

Even before this season began, Red Sox officials knew that the need to trade for a hitter might become a necessity. The only question was where they would have a hole. The best thing to happen to them has been the play of Mike Lowell, who is on pace for 116 RBIs. Had Lowell been struggling, too, the issues facing this club would be much more daunting.

For all of the names being speculated about at this stage of the game -- from Victor Martinez to Magglio Ordonez to Matt Holliday -- the Red Sox still aren’t sure of their precise needs yet. And they may not know that until they get a firsthand look at Mark Kotsay, whose return from back surgery was derailed by a leg injury but who may now be approaching a return to the playing field.

So why is Kotsay a factor? Barring a dramatic turnaround in Ortiz’s performance, the Red Sox are not likely to find a 30-homer, 100-RBI man on the trade market, at least at a price they are willing to pay. Over the winter, Cleveland Indians general manager Mark Shapiro was asking for a steep price for Kelly Shoppach; he will do that and then some for Martinez, a switch-hitter essentially under contract through next season (the Indians hold a club option for 2010) who can catch and bat in the middle of the lineup. Ordonez has been struggling (.256, two home runs). Holliday has yet to hit stride in the American League and is eligible for free agency at the end of the year, making him a potentially risky rental at a relatively high cost.

If and when Kotsay returns to make a contribution, the Red Sox could have choices at their disposal. While Kotsay has never been a power hitter, the Red Sox have been getting virtually nothing from Ortiz in that area, anyway. What Kotsay could give the Sox is a disciplined hitter who can "keep the line moving," as manager Terry Francona likes to say, and that could go a long way toward deepening a Boston lineup already relying on Lowell, Jason Bay, and Youkilis to knock in a majority of the runs.

Should Kotsay prove reasonably productive, general manager Theo Epstein’s job could get a lot easier. Because of Kotsay’s ability to play first base, Francona could use Youkilis at third (as he would have if the Sox landed Mark Teixeira) and employ Lowell as his designated hitter. Epstein then could turn his attention toward someone like Cleveland's Mark DeRosa, who is batting .317 with a .959 OPS against righthanded pitching this season and who can play multiple positions. That kind of move would be affordable while giving the Sox great flexibility, something any manager would embrace.

Beyond that, the Red Sox could rekindle discussions with the Texas Rangers for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a 24-year-old switch-hitter with just 610 career major league at-bats. Saltalamacchia would give the Sox the option of using him at first base, DH or catcher, the latter of which remains a long-term concern. The Red Sox could give Saltalamacchia the at-bats needed now (for him and them) while simultaneously grooming a potential replacement for Jason Varitek, all while keeping the door open on George Kottaras, too.

Of course, for all of this to happen, the Sox face potential sacrifices, the most obvious of which is the talent of a young pitcher like Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden. Depending on whom Boston’s target is, the price for the Sox could be high. That is especially true now that the New York Mets also are looking for a first baseman in the wake of an injury to Carlos Delgado. Once there is a second team involved, there are the makings for a bidding war.

So, which route would Epstein choose? That is difficult to say, especially given that the Sox are just one-fourth of the way through their schedule. Epstein never has been one to make rash decisions, and it is unlikely that he will overreact now as Ortiz continues to spin himself into the ground. What is clear is that the Red Sox don’t necessarily need to make a big trade to improve their offense -- at least not yet -- and that the Sox would be wise to explore internal options (beginning with Kotsay) before they do anything else.

In the interim, they will watch and wait, specifically to see if Ortiz starts to hit.

And then there were … four?

"We’re playing well. We’re cautiously optimistic," said J.P. Ricciardi, general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays team that arrives at Fenway Park tonight for the opener of a three-game series. "We’re still pitching well, like we have the last three years, but we’re pitching well with younger kids that people don’t know and we didn’t know. And I’ll be honest: We still don’t know."

The Jays are 27-14 and own the best record in the American League at what amounts to the quarter-mile post in the run for the roses in the 2009 season. Toronto is excelling in every area -- pitching, offense, defense -- leading to an obvious question:

With all of the attention on the Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, is it possible that the American League East houses a fourth championship hopeful, one that has blossomed in the absence of expectation?

"That’s fine. I don’t know if it can help, but for us, we don’t need someone not thinking well of us," said Ricciardi. "At the end of the day, we have to play and we understand that.’’

With that in mind, here is how the Jays stack up in an AL East that was thought to be a three-horse race:

STARTING PITCHING

Jays 19-10, 4.00 (third)
Rays 17-16, 5.18 (eighth)
Yankees 12-11, 5.25 (ninth)
Red Sox 15-12, 5.76 (13th)

As blessed as the Jays are to have Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.78), the three starters scheduled against the Sox -- Brian Tallet, Brett Cecil and Robert Ray -- are a combined 5-2 with a 3.72 ERA so far. The rotation was expected to be one of Toronto’s weaknesses given the departure of A.J. Burnett along with injuries to both Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. But the Jays have been able to fill in behind Halladay with a cast of young and talented pitchers.

Will they hold up? That is hard to say. But Ricciardi believes the Jays have the organizational depth to make choices -- sound familiar? -- and the Jays might already have activated Jesse Litsch and Ricky Romero from the disabled list were it not for the fact that the Toronto staff has been pitching well without them.

"I’m not going to disrupt the team if guys continue to pitch well," said Ricciardi. "At the same time, it’s only May. ...It’s just hard right now because no one has failed. Until we have some failure, we’re going to stay where we are."

Though the Sox will not face Halladay in this series, do not underestimate the potential impact of a true ace, in this case one who happens to be the best pitcher in the division. In 1999, for instance, the Red Sox went 26-5 in Pedro Martinez’s 31 appearances (including two in relief) and just 68-61 the rest of the time. The Sox won 94 games and reached the American League Championship Series before losing to the Yankees.

RELIEF PITCHING

Red Sox 7-4, 3.02 ERA (second)
Jays 8-4, 3.55 (fourth)
Rays 3-4, 4.04 (seventh)
Yankees 9-6, 5.46 (12th)

As dominating as Red Sox relievers have been for the large chunk of the season, the Jays have been nearly as good -- and that's despite the difficulties of closer B.J. Ryan (9.45 ERA), who just came off the disabled list. Filling in for Ryan, lefthander Scott Downs (22 strikeouts, two walks) has been a perfect 5 for 5 in save opportunities and righthander Jason Frasor (4-0, 0.64 ERA) has been manager Cito Gaston’s answer to Ramon Ramirez.

Here, too, Ricciardi is optimistic that the Jays can continue excelling if for no other reason than the team has depth. Ricciardi believes that Casey Janssen is close to returning from the disabled list as a starter or reliever, though the latter would be more ideal for the overall productivity of the staff. Regardless, Toronto may have enough internal options that the Jays should be proficient in the late innings of games.

"We’ve got some flexibility," Ricciardi said. "We’ve got some questions to answer, but we’ve got ways to mix and match."

OFFENSE

Jays 234 runs (first)
Rays 221 runs (second)
Red Sox 208 runs (fourth)
Yankees 205 runs (fifth)

Before John Gibbons was fired as the manager last season, the Jays were one of the worst offensive clubs in baseball. Since that time, Toronto has been one of the best. This year, the Jays have scored more runs than any team in the American League -- granted the Jays also have played more games -- but Toronto (51 home runs, third) is hitting for much more power and batting a sterling .305 (second) with runners in scoring position.

As much as Toronto has struggled offensively in recent years, one of the team’s biggest problems has been health. So far this season, the Jays have been getting tremendous production from designated hitter Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill, the latter of whom posted some totals in 2007 (17 home runs, 78 RBI) that were comparable to those of Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia in 2008 (17 home runs, 83 RBI).

This season, Hill already has 11 homers. He and Lind have combined for 69 RBI, more than any two players on the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay have remained in the lineup.

"He’s a good player,’’ Ricciardi said of Hill, who missed much of last season with post-concussion syndrome. "It’s just nice to have him in lineup.’’

With everyone else in the lineup, too, Toronto has built a group, 1 through 9, that may nearly as deep as anything the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays can submit on a daily basis.

DEFENSE

Jays .987 (second)
Yankees .986 (fifth)
Rays .984 (seventh)
Red Sox .981 (12th)

We all know how the Red Sox feel about fielding percentage as a measure of defense, but no matter how you slice it, Boston’s defense has been a disappointment this year, at least at shortstop. Meanwhile, the Jays have been making all the plays, committing fewer errors (14) than any other AL East team but the Yankees (20). The Jays are especially strong at the corners and in center field, where third baseman Rolen, first baseman Overbay and center fielder Wells are especially valued.

All of this brings Ricciardi back to the starting rotation, which is where he admits that the Jays face their biggest questions. This week, at Fenway, Cecil and Ray each will make his fourth career start in the major leagues. Entering the year, at least on paper, Toronto didn’t come close to matching up with the vaunted rotations of the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees, but the Jays’ early-season excellence in this area has brought to light the team’s other strengths, from the bullpen and lineup to the defense.

In that way, will this week be a good test for them?

"I don’t think we’re going to let three games decide how we do," said Ricciardi, whose team thus far has played just three games against the division’s Big Three, losing two of three to New York. "We’ve played the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays so much our guys are used to going into Fenway Park, Yankees Stadium and Tampa."

But are they used to going in as front-runners?

In what would be the ultimate act of selfishness, maybe Manny Ramirez took some of the shine with him. Maybe he scuffed up those World Series trophies. Maybe he tarnished what is the Golden Age of Red Sox baseball by being, for a lack of a better word, dirty.

And so now, Ramirez having apologized to Los Angeles Dodgers ownership and with an apology to teammates perhaps forthcoming, we cannot help but wonder: When do we get ours? Exposed by Major League Baseball last week for violating terms of the game’s substance abuse policy, Ramirez is in the midst of a 50-game suspension after testing positive for human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), a female fertility drug frequently used by steroid users to restore testosterone levels. The easy thing to believe now is that Ramirez slipped up this one time, that he is an aging man inspired by greed to secure one more perverse contract.

It would be easy to say this: Thank goodness this didn’t happen here.

But it almost certainly did.

As such, we have no choice now but to spend at least a moment, however brief, to wonder what this all means with regard to recent Red Sox history. Ramirez was the Most Valuable Player of the 2004 World Series and a driving force behind the Red Sox’ title in 2007, when he batted .400 with four homers, 14 RBI and 14 walks in the first two rounds. Overall, during his career in Boston, Ramirez batted .321 with 11 home runs, 29 runs scored, 38 RBI and 31 walks in 43 postseason games, a period during which the Red Sox won eight playoff series and two championships.

During those years, we all said it so many times that we now would be foolish to forget our words: Manny drove the bus, Manny was the key.

Human nature being what it is, we cannot simply erase the past. What’s done is done and what is in the books is the books. Officially speaking, UMass never has made a Final Four appearance thanks to the transgressions of Marcus Camby, but try telling that to those of us who remember the Minutemen playing in the 1996 national semifinals. Ditto for the Sox in 2004 and 2007, no matter what Ramirez did, especially when steroid use was just as likely to have existed on the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals or 2007 Colorado Rockies.

Still, in Boston, there is a tendency and willingness to look away when something like this happens, if only because it’s easier to move on than to sort it all out. Trying to recreate past is a pointless exercise. Yet the fact remains that Boston has been sucked into this performance-enhancing drugs mess on more than one occasion -- from Mo Vaughn to Rodney Harrison to now Ramirez -- and yet we have spent relatively little time wondering about the ramifications of it all in our cozy little cocoon.

Vaughn was named in the Mitchell Report for his association with former New York Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski, a known steroids peddler. Harrison was suspended just before the start of the 2007 season for use of human growth hormone, and many local fans defended Harrison’s actions more than the player himself did. In Harrison’s case, for whatever reason, the sin was deemed less egregious because it took place in a musclebound world where fuel injection is part of the standard package.

Now comes Ramirez, who had more to do with the Red Sox’ success during his nearly eight seasons here than anyone else. Ramirez was here longer than Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz. He was a better performer than Jason Varitek or Tim Wakefield. He was, quite literally, the centerpiece around which the explosive Boston offense was built, a major reason why the Sox scored more runs from 2001-2008 than any team in baseball but the New York Yankees.

During each of the two years prior to Ramirez’s arrival in Boston, the Red Sox did not finish among the top half of the 14 American League teams in runs scored.

Now that Ramirez is playing elsewhere -- or, rather, sitting -- some of us are all too willing to celebrate the fact that the Red Sox traded him just in the nick of time, something that again misses the point. Ramirez is the same man in Los Angeles that he was in Boston. He is just wearing a different uniform. He is living proof that fans and spectators cheer for laundry above all else, and he is just as likely (more so?) to have masked steroid use in Boston as he did in Los Angeles.

The only difference is that he didn’t get caught here.

And because he won, examining whether the Red Sox cheated their way to a world title is far too messy a task.

The question, really, concerns how far the Red Sox are willing to go. How long are they willing to put Julio Lugo at shortstop? How long are they willing to try? How long before they give the keys to Nick Green or Jed Lowrie or someone else entirely?

"We’re trying to balance winning and getting Julio some athleticism back,’’ Red Sox manager Terry Francona said yesterday in the wake of a 14-5 Sox loss to the kryptonite Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. "It’s there. He knows it and we know it. … We weren’t going to play him [today] already. As far as the instant results, I don’t know if we thought that would happen. We’re walking a little bit of a line. We understand that. We’re doing the best we can.’’

In the interim, games are being played. And roughly one-fifth of the way through this 2009 season, the Red Sox are precisely where we left them at the end of 2008:

Unsure of themselves at the shortstop position.

In the middle stands Lugo, now in the third year of a four-year, $36 million contract. The money matters. During an ugly fifth inning yesterday in which the Sox allowed a decisive six runs in what was theretofore a 2-1 game -- the Rays led -- Lugo consistently looked one step behind. In the player’s defense, his only truly egregious blunder came with one out and a man on first base, when a Dioner Navarro bouncer slipped under a ranging Lugo’s glove to put men at first and second.

What should have been a double play was, instead, a single. And instead of having nobody on with two outs, the Rays had the beginnings of what was a six-run rally.

In the moments thereafter, Lugo was booed by a Fenway Park following clearly aware that the Sox now have lost more games this season with Lugo as the starter (five) than they have with Nick Green (four). With regard to wins, Green (16) is winning by a landslide (Lugo has one). The Red Sox are choosing their words carefully with regard to Lugo’s play afield, but most anyone would be hard pressed to suggest that the Sox are a better team with Lugo on the diamond.

Lugo is hitting .357 at the moment and had his first homer of the season yesterday, but if it is possible, his defense appears to have gotten worse.

"A lot of balls off the bat I thought were outs,’’ starter Jon Lester said diplomatically of the Rays’ maddening fifth, when Tampa seemed to repeatedly thread the needle between shortstop and third base. "It just seems like our guys are playing one step the wrong way. I’m not saying that guys are out of position, but that’s just the way it’s going for me right now.’’

Good for Lester for maintaining his professionalism and biting his tongue. Now here’s what he wanted to say:

If Lugo gets to that first ball and turns a double play, we might have won this game and I’d feel a heck of a lot better about myself right now.

Whether or not you were among those booing Lugo yesterday, it’s time to make some admissions to yourself. Lugo is an easy target, though the contract is not his fault. (Was he supposed to say no when the Sox offered him $9 million a season?) During his first two years in Boston, Lugo batted .249 with an OPS of .661. Before he was injured last season, his defense was atrocious. Now Lugo is coming off knee surgery that may have stripped him of perhaps his only remaining assets -- speed and mobility -- and you cannot help but wonder if he will have anything left at all to offer the Red Sox if and when Jed Lowrie returns from the disabled list.

After all, for all of the public criticisms that Lugo has absorbed during his time in Boston, the Red Sox always believed that Lugo’s error total was deceiving because he got to more balls than the average shortstop. At the moment, however, Lugo isn’t getting to those same balls and the Sox are suffering for it.

For what it’s worth, Green hasn’t exactly been Ozzie Smith at shortstop this season, either, contributing six errors to a team total of seven from the shortstop position, tied for most in the majors. Just the same, most of Green’s errors have come on throws and he has been moving reasonably well in the field. The combination of Green’s offense and defense has been an asset to the club, particularly when one considers that he entered the spring third (at least) on the depth chart at the position.

As Francona said, Lugo wasn’t scheduled to play today, anyway, something the manager clearly wanted to disclose lest anyone thing today’s decision was a temporary benching. It is probably just as well. Quite simply, the Red Sox are a better team with Green on the field than they are with Lugo, just as they were last season when Lowrie (zero errors in 49 games at shortstop) took over after Lugo suffered a season-ending leg injury.

Between now and the time Lowrie returns -- if he returns -- both we and the Red Sox will have had sufficient time to evaluate their $36 million investment at shortstop. Lugo has plenty of time to change our minds. Until then, the Red Sox will continue to play games and position themselves for a potential postseason berth, hoping that Lugo does not hurt them more than he helps.

Hand in hand, the Red Sox and their shortstop will walk the line together.

Manny Ramirez owes us all an explanation, and he owes us a heck of a lot more than a note effectively signed by Juan Epstein's mother. Right or wrong, like it or not, Major League Baseball is in the age where everyone is guilty until proven innocent.

So after all of that, after blackmailing his way out of Boston last summer and holding up the Los Angeles Dodgers for a $25 million salary this year, Manny Ramirez has to take what amounts to a 30 percent pay cut. How 'bout them apples? Suspended by Major League Baseball this morning for violating the terms of baseball’s drug policy, Ramirez has been dealt a 50-game suspension that will require him to forfeit roughly $7.7 million in salary. The only remaining question is whether Ramirez also will sacrifice any of his legacy, joining Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and others on the list of America’s most tainted superstars.

Clearly, there are lots of questions to be answered here, beginning with the specific substance Ramirez took (a source told the Globe it was human chorionic gonadotropin, a women's fertility drug that can be used by steroid users to restart their body's testosterone production after a steroid cycle), the doctor who allegedly prescribed it for him, and the alleged "personal health issue’’ Ramirez cited in his public statement. Maybe Ramirez is telling us the truth, but those of us in Boston know far too much now to simply take Manny at his word. Roughly nine months ago, Ramirez couldn’t remember which knee was bothering him when Red Sox officials ordered him an MRI, for goodness sake. When the heat is on, Manny frequently can’t remember which way is up.

Are we now expected to believe that neither he nor his doctor is smart enough to know which drugs are on MLB’s list of banned substances?

"Recently I saw a physician for a personal health issue. He gave me a medication, not a steroid, which he thought was OK to give me,’’ Ramirez said in a statement. "Unfortunately, the medication was banned under our drug policy. Under the policy that mistake is now my responsibility. I have been advised not to say anything more for now. I do want to say one other thing; I've taken and passed about 15 drug tests over the past five seasons.’’

I have been advised not to say anything more for now … except for the fact that I’ve passed prior drug tests.

In Boston, from 2001-08, we all saw enough of Ramirez’s gifts to believe that he was in the 99th percentile, a supremely talented and gifted man who didn’t need help in the batter’s box. We also know that the steroid era has destroyed any and all preconceptions we might possess of suspected users. Somewhat sadly, the burden of proof is now solely on the player, and the simple truth is that the numbers over the last two years are not doing Ramirez any favors.

Entering the 2007 season, Ramirez was a .314 career hitter with a .600 career slugging percentage. In 2007, he batted .296 and slugged a mere .493. Those numbers continued along the same path of decline through much of last season; at the time the Red Sox sent him to the Dodgers, Ramirez was batting .299 with a slugging percentage of .529.

What has happened since, of course, has been a resurgence of Ruthian proportion. In one-third of a season with the Dodgers, Ramirez slugged .743 and hit nearly as many home runs (17) as he did in his last four months with the Red Sox (20). His slugging percentage since joining the Dodgers today stands at a robust .710, precisely .202 greater than the .508 he posted for the Red Sox from Opening Day 2007 up to last year’s trading deadline.

Along the way, Manny just happened to be playing for a new contract.

Is it so outrageous to think he simply cycled up when he most needed it?

Now Ramirez is banned from baseball for the next 50 games, a particularly amusing development given the damage he might do to his team. The Dodgers currently possess the best record in baseball. Ramirez is more important than any hitter in their lineup. Ramirez’s statement effectively proclaimed his innocence as it pertained to the knowing, deliberate and malicious use of performance-enhancers, and yet the same statement was sufficiently vague to only fuel the questions about Ramirez and the role of performance enhancers on his career, in the short term or the long.

Did Ramirez use?

That is hard to know for sure, and it might always be.

But as we all know, a truly innocent man has nothing to be ashamed of and less to hide, be it in a note from the doctor or Epstein’s mother.

The Red Sox visit the new Yankee Stadium for the first time tonight. (Rich Pilling / Getty Images Photo)

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Just like that, the Red Sox go from the dungeon-like, drab home of the Tampa Bay Rays to the luxurious new penthouse of the New York Yankees, from young legs and speedball to old money and powerball. The objective remains the same, but the game has completely changed.

"I hear it’s like a resort,’’ Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia said of the new Yankee Stadium, where the Sox will make their inaugural visit tonight after losing three of four to the Rays over the weekend at the juicebox hangar known as Tropicana Field. Added Pedroia, noting that the Sox’ next destination reportedly comes with perks that include a media-free players lounge the size of Central Park, "I can hide from you guys.’’

For a time, perhaps. But there is no simply ducking out in the American League East this year.

And there are no vacations, either.

After futilely chasing Carl Crawford and the rest of the Rays for the last four days -- Tampa stole 12 bases in the series, including eight in yesterday’s 5-3 Sox loss -- the Red Sox now get to play softball with the Yanks, who thus far are averaging exactly six runs per game in their new digs. The Yankees have averaged roughly two homers a game and slugged .489 as a team, suggesting the Red Sox will -- in the span of roughly 24 hours -- go from engaging the young, sprightly Rays in a track meet to challenging the older, beefier Yankees in what might amount to beer league softball.

At the moment, the Red Sox are choosing their words carefully about the new ballpark, though they are clearly eager to see the driving range that has been built in the Bronx. Asked about the new Yankee Stadium before yesterday’s game with the Rays, Sox manager Terry Francona said he preferred to see the ballpark before making a judgment. Privately, one voice in the organization said there are already whispers that right center field in New York is a mere 330 feet from home plate, suggesting either an architectural blunder (unlikely) or a gimmick as contrived as, say, burying a David Ortiz T-shirt in the concrete foundation to invoke the curse of Big Papi. (Given the ongoing struggles and frustrations of the 21st Century Bambino, now would be as good a time as any to rile up the spirits.)

Whatever the case, this much is certain: The Red Sox are likely to play a different brand of baseball in New York than they just completed over the weekend, where the Red Sox dropped to 5-8 on the road (as opposed to 10-2 at home). In their 13 games away from Fenway Park, the Red Sox are batting .252 (as opposed to .305 at home) and slugging a mere .385 (as opposed to .540). As small as the samples are, the range of the Red Sox’ skills are being tested in peculiar fashion on the last two legs of this three-city trip that already has us invoking the first rule of property ownership.

Location, location, location.

In recent years, during the Red Sox’ most successful seasons, one of their underrated strengths has been the ability to adapt. As dominating as the Sox generally have been at home during the Theo Epstein Era, they also have held the ability to win in a variety of fashions. In 2004, in particular, the Sox of late August, September, and October could win with pitching, power, speed, and defense, which made them virtually unbeatable down the stretch. That is why, over their final 60 regular season and postseason games, the Sox went an absurd 45-15, winning one stretch of games by revealing scores of 5-4, 11-5, 4-1, 5-3, 5-1, 6-1, 10-7, 12-7, 4-3 and 2-0. Whatever style of game opponents elected to play, the Sox politely nodded, then beat them at it.

As the saying goes, sometimes you have to do what is necessary.

With this team, at this stage, we need to see more before truly understanding the Red Sox’ limits, which makes this two-game layover in New York all the more interesting, particularly after the Rays' Carl Crawford repeatedly circled the track as if he were Mine That Bird. At the moment, the Sox don’t appear any more capable of stopping the enemy running game than the Detroit Lions, and the Yankees themselves went a perfect 4 for 4 in steal attempts during their three-game visit to Boston at the end of last month. Meanwhile, the Sox have appeared fully capable of exchanging haymakers with everyone from Manny Ramirez to Manny Pacquiao, though their power could be tested fully this week in the not-so-lyric little bandbox with newly discounted seats. (Now yours for just $1,250 a game!)

Today and tomorrow -- as was the case over the weekend -- the truth is that the home team has far more to prove than the visitors do, if only for events that have thus far taken place. Tampa Bay was 8-14 at the start of the series with the Sox, and a one-sided Boston outcome could have dealt the Rays a harmful blow. In New York’s case, the Yankees were swept in a three-game series at Fenway Park from April 24-26, and New York exposed a marshmallow bullpen in the process. The Yankees simply appeared incapable of matching up in the later innings, which led to losses of 5-4, 16-11 and 4-1.

In the brief time since, the Yankees obviously have not been able to do too much to change their team.

But tonight and tomorrow night, maybe they can do what the Tampa Bay Rays did yesterday and change the game.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Joe Maddon is the reigning American League Manager of the Year, a man whose unconventional methods were celebrated during the Tampa Bay Rays’ rags-to-riches season of 2008. But as the page now turns in the American League East, one still cannot help but wonder if the law of averages is catching up to him.

The Red Sox defeated Maddon and the Rays by a 10-6 score at Tropicana Field last night, a game largely decided by the ineptitude of Tampa Bay starter Jeff Niemann, who effectively spotted the Sox leads of 2-0 and 6-1. And yet the Red Sox held just a 6-5 lead with two outs in the top of the sixth inning, when Maddon made the kind of managerial decision that simultaneously leaves conventional, logical thinkers scratching their heads and the affable manager of the Rays open to legitimate second-guessing.

Last year, many of those moves worked for Maddon.

This year? Only heaven knows, which can only make you wonder if the Rays and Yankees both will have trouble matching the Red Sox in the dugout when over the long haul.

In this case, with one out and the bases loaded, Maddon had righthander Grant Balfour on the mound with Kevin Youkilis due up. The manager went to his bullpen and summoned lefthander Brian Shouse to face cleanup man Kevin Youkilis, which might make some sense if Shouse had a history of effectiveness against righthanded batters. He doesn’t. A 40-year-old journeyman specialist now with his sixth major league team, Shouse has held lefthanded batters to a .210 average over his career, but righthanders have batted .312 (with an .858 OPS) against him. He is, in some ways, the modern day Tony Fossas. And yet, Maddon brought in Shouse to face arguably the best hitter in the American League with a divisional game at stake, the kind of move that has worked for Maddon in the past but that absolutely should not.

This time, it didn’t.

The result? A two-run double down the left field line that gave the Red Sox an 8-5 lead and propelled them to a 10-6 win that at least temporarily stopped the bleeding in this series and destroyed any momentum the Rays appeared to be building.

A refreshingly secure man who has no difficulty discussing his methods, Maddon said after last night’s game that he opted for Shouse over Balfour (a fastball pitcher who works up in the strike zone) because he believed Shouse was his better chance at keeping the ball on the ground and inducing an inning-ending double play. Unfortunately, Shouse was also his best chance at a game-altering blow by Youkilis, who finished third in last year’s Most Valuable Player Award balloting. The move only became more peculiar when Maddon brought righthander Joe Nelson into the game two innings later, suggesting that Shouse’s presence in the game was not the result of Maddon having too many overworked relievers in his bullpen.

In some ways, unorthodox decisions like that make Maddon as charming as former Sox manager Joe Morgan, who once sent the lefthanded-hitting Phil Plantier up to pinch-hit against lefthanded pitcher Jeff Johnson in the sixth inning of a game at Yankee Stadium in 1991. Plantier promptly belted a three-run homer into the upper deck in right field, a move that remains etched in Morgan folklore.

This time, unfortunately for Maddon, the move didn’t work. It backfired beyond belief. The greater question now is whether Maddon’s methods will hurt the Rays over the long term, particularly when he appears to have the talent to compete (and then some) for a World Series championship. Looking back, the 1991 Red Sox were a limited club -- and on the decline, as it turned out -- that may have needed its manager to roll the dice, an argument that similarly could be made for the 2008 Rays.

But is that still true of Tampa Bay in 2009?

By putting Shouse in to face Youkilis, wasn’t Maddon putting his pitcher in a position to fail rather than succeed?

Juxtaposed with the methods and philosophies of Sox manager Terry Francona, Maddon’s methods today look all the more curious. Quite simply, under the same circumstances, Francona never, ever, ever would have made the same move that Maddon made last night. For the Red Sox, the most comparable scenario would have involved Francona summoning, say, Javier Lopez to face Evan Longoria with one out and the bases loaded in a one-run game, the kind of decision that is just asking for trouble. And if Francona did make such a move, it almost certainly would have been because he had no one else available in the bullpen.

Nearly six years ago, when the Red Sox fired Grady Little and began the search for his replacement, they interviewed four candidates. One was obviously Francona. Maddon was one of the remaining three. The Red Sox settled on Francona because they believed his playing career would lend him greater credibility with Boston players, fans, and media, something that has proven especially true in the Boston clubhouse. For any criticisms that Francona might have absorbed over the years -- and those come as a package deal with the chair in the manager’s office at Fenway Park -- Francona has maintained order in the clubhouse, become a skilled handler of pitchers and overseen the best offense in baseball over a six-year span. In the last instance, he generally has done so by staying out of the way and letting his players decide the outcome.

Last night, Joe Maddon got in the way.

And it may have cost his team a game.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- April has turned to May, and David Ortiz’s batting average remains a soft .220. Maybe it’s time to ask the questions everyone is thinking.

What if this isn’t just a slump?

What if it’s something far more, well, permanent?

Ortiz went 0 for 4 with another strikeout last night in the Red Sox’ 6-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, giving him precisely 23 strikeouts in 23 games this year. He has zero home runs and is slugging .319. The man who almost single-handedly lifted the Red Sox to the 2004 World Series championship now looks hollow at the plate, and Ortiz himself now seems consumed by more doubt than at any other point during his Red Sox career.

Following last night’s game, while Julio Lugo politely urged reporters to "leave [Ortiz] alone," Ortiz quietly gathered his belongings and sauntered out the clubhouse door, his weight familiarly shifting from side to side as if he were quite literally marching to the beat of his own drummer. Nonetheless, his stride does not seem so rhythmic anymore. Ortiz hasn’t been able to catch up to a fastball so far this season and everybody knows it, though manager Terry Francona seems intent on letting Ortiz remain in the No. 3 spot in his batting order.

"I guess I’d always consider doing what’s in our team’s best interest,’’ Francona said when asked if he considered it a viable option to move Ortiz down in the lineup. "I think it does more harm than good. We’ve had pretty much a set lineup [in recent years]. Three days ago, when we were winning 11 out of 12, nobody was asking that. I don’t know that it’s the best thing to do.’’

Meanwhile, Ortiz continues to flail away and look off balance, the victim of opposing pitchers who are mercilessly exploiting his problems. Prior to last night’s game, Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan told the Globe’s Amalie Benjamin what has been apparent for weeks, namely that Ortiz is "cheating’’ to get to fastballs by starting his swing earlier. One of the resulting effects is that Ortiz has been on his front foot on off-speed pitches, leading to an array of ugly swings and weak outs that have defined his first month of 2009.

So why does a hitter cheat? Because he is not confident in his ability to catch up to the fastball. If the first rule of hitting is to trust yourself, Ortiz has been failing at the most fundamental concept of life in the batter’s box. If you cannot hit a fastball in the major leagues, you cannot hit anything because you are vulnerable to anything and everything in any pitcher’s arsenal.

Ortiz knows this, regardless of whether he wants to admit it publicly. Late during the 2005 season, with Ortiz on the way to a second-place finish in the American League Most Valuable Player Award balloting, he delivered clutch hits on a regular basis during the final weeks of the season. Following one such blast -- a game-tying home run against Detroit Tigers reliever Fernando Rodney at Comerica Park in August -- Ortiz admitted that he always thinks fastball first, off-speed second. He believed fully in his ability to adjust to whatever was thrown his way.

Now? Entering last night, the Red Sox ranked 12th among the 14 American League teams in OPS from their No. 3 hitters, 12th in OPS from the designated hitters. They are the only team in the AL without a homer from their DH. Ortiz has just nine walks in the team’s first 23 games, a pace that would produce 63 walks over a 162-game schedule. From 2005-07, Ortiz’s 332 walks led all players in the major leagues and his 44 intentional walks were third-most in the league.

Of the Sox’ 10 intentional walks this year, Ortiz has zero.

From Francona’s standpoint, the options at this stage are limited. Ortiz has been such a huge part of what the Red Sox have built over the last several years that the manager cannot easily sit him; during Francona’s time in Boston, one of the manager’s greatest assets has been the loyalty, commitment and respect afforded all players, but especially the veteran ones. So long as the Red Sox continue to score runs on a reasonably productive basis, Francona and the club can absorb Ortiz’s difficulties. Keeping him in the lineup will preserve the trust and culture the Red Sox have built in the clubhouse while becoming the most successful baseball franchise of this millennium.

Long-term? That’s another matter. Ortiz effectively will earn salaries of $13 million this year and next as part of a four-year, $52 million contract that initially looked like such a baseball Brinks Job that guilty club owners gave Ortiz a pickup truck during spring training of 2007. Two years later, we can only wonder if Sox officials have one of those lead-bottomed contracts they so strongly detest. Aside from Ortiz’s status as a 10-5 man, his salary and productivity are not in alignment at the moment -- particularly in this economy -- which makes him impossible to trade.

Naturally, baseball can be a peculiar game. Slightly more than three years ago, during the spring of 2006, the Red Sox were so worried about then-newcomer Mike Lowell during spring training that they signed Hee Seop Choi during camp. Two seasons later, Lowell had knocked in 120 runs and been named MVP of the World Series, leading to the three-year, $37.5 million contract that runs through next season.

Still, in Ortiz’s case, the signs are more worrisome than many might care to acknowledge. Prior to injuring his wrist at the end of May last season, Ortiz was batting .252 and slugging .486. The latter number was a whopping .209 below the .695 Ortiz slugged in the second half of the 2007 season. The obvious point is that there have long been signs here for anyone who cared to notice, though the Red Sox would gladly take the Ortiz of last season now given the results of the first 23 games in 2009.

"He's taking it hard. Like I said, when you're a star and you know you can hit, things don't happen the way you want you're going to get mad and you're supposed to get mad because you're supposed to do all those things,’’ Lugo said of Ortiz. "I don't expect him to be happy. If he was happy, I'd be the first one who'd want to whip his [posterior].

"David's the heart of the team. I mean, without him, it's going to be hard for us to keep going. I don't have any doubt in my mind or anybody's mind that he's going to come through. He's going through a hard time right now, but you know what, he hasn't forgotten how to hit. He hasn't forgotten how to play baseball. He's right there. One click. He's missing his pitches right now. Just a little adjustment, he's going to be OK.’’

He’s probably right.

Isn’t he?

ST. PETERSBURG -- One month is in the books. And statistically speaking, the Red Sox have both one of the best records in the game and one of the worst starting rotations.

In baseball, this qualifies as an oxymoron.

Still the possessors of the best record in the American League, the Red Sox and starter Josh Beckett were completely annihilated by Matt Garza and the Tampa Bay Rays last night by a 13-0 score in a game that was not nearly so close. The Sox were outhit, 18-1. They managed just three base runners and sent only 29 men to the plate. In order to spare the elixir that has been his bullpen, manager Terry Francona went to all-purpose tool Jonathan Van Every to record the final two outs of the game.

More than anything, this game especially was a reflection on the ineptitude of a Red Sox starting rotation that has been a colossal disappointment thus far. As a group, Sox starters now have a 5.52 ERA that ranks 12th in the league ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians, who are a combined 17-30. Only the starters of the Oakland A’s have allowed a higher on-base percentage than those of the Sox. Minus Tim Wakefield, Red Sox starters have a gruesome 6.65 ERA that defies logic.

Good thing the Sox have a deep bullpen, eh?

"I know back in the day, they used to have nine [pitchers on an average staff],’’ said Francona, whose 12-man staff consists of seven relief pitchers and five starters. "I wouldn’t want to do it. I look up and see seven [relievers] in the bullpen and wish we had more."

And he said that before asking Van Every to take the mound while moving Javy Lopez into right field in the bottom of the eighth inning.

As worrisome as Beckett’s performance continues to be, the problem currently goes much deeper. In 12 combined starts this year, Boston's top three starters Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are 3-5 with a 6.92 ERA while allowing 86 hits and 31 walks in 65 innings. Toss in a couple of hit batters and the vaunted big three of the Boston rotation have allowed a colossal 129 base runners, an average of basically two per inning. The relievers are pitching too much because the starters aren’t pitching enough, a long-term recipe for disaster for any major league team.

So this was one game. Fine. But suddenly there is an inordinate amount of pressure on Wakefield and Justin Masterson (tonight’s starter) because Beckett, Lester and Brad Penny simply have not been getting it done, particularly at a time when the Red Sox may not be afforded much rest.

Last week, beginning with the New York Yankees’ arrival at Fenway Park on Friday, the Sox began a stretch during which they will play 17 games in 17 days. Following the last of those contests -- a Sunday night home game against these same Rays -- the Sox are afforded one travel day to journey to the West Coast, where they will play six more games in succession. By the time May 18 rolls around, the Red Sox will have played 23 games in 24 days.

The point? If Red Sox starters don’t start pulling their weight soon, the bullpen could be gassed. Already, Red Sox relievers have thrown the third-most innings in the league behind, among others, a Baltimore team that has one of the worst starting rotations in the game. Francona said before last night’s game that he is not overly concerned about the workload on individual relievers because the depth of the Boston relief corps has afforded him the opportunity to distribute the burden. A short time later, against his wishes, he had Van Every on the mound.

"First of all, I don’t like doing it,’’ Francona said. "We had checked with [Van Every] earlier. I’m not going to let a pitcher get hurt. Javy had thrown three days in a row."

More than any reliever in the Boston bullpen, Lopez this morning has reason to be frustrated. A left-handed specialist by trade -- that is why the Red Sox have him -- Lopez has been relegated to emergency duty too often this season already. Partly as a result, he has a 9.39 ERA. Granted, Lopez has struggled against left-handed batters this season, too -- they are batting a robust .438 against him -- but the fact of the matter remains that he has faced more right-handed batters (24) than left-handed ones (21). That is not a reflection on Francona so much as it is on a Boston rotation that has relied far too much on its bullpen thus far.

Though the Sox are a 14-8 team, at the moment the performance of their rotation suggests something much closer to mediocrity -- or worse. Already this season, thanks to the brilliance of the bullpen and the encouraging explosiveness of the Boston offense, the Sox have overcome deficits of 5-0 (against the Cleveland Indians), 6-0 (against the New York Yankees) and 7-0 (against Baltimore). Those games are virtual steals. Had those three opponents proved remotely capable of protecting a lead, the Sox today would be 11-11 instead of 14-8 and we might all feel a little differently about the way things have been going.

In April, as it was, the Red Sox did a marvelous job of climbing out of holes.

But in May, they would still be best served if their starters resisted digging them.

TAMPA, Fla. -- A great deal of baseball is to be played, but if the reigning American League champions are not careful, they could bury themselves.

And so as the Red Sox arrive at Tropicana Field tonight for the opener of a weekend series against the Tampa Bay Rays, make no mistake. This series means a great deal more to the Rays than it does to the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is 8-14 overall -- just 6-13 since leaving Boston after opening the season by taking two of three from the Sox -- and the Rays have dropped six series in a row since departing Fenway Park in early April.

"We're not really pleased with what's going on, there's no question about that," manager Joe Maddon told reporters following Wednesday’s loss to the Minnesota Twins. "We should have been able to win more than one series to this point. But it's early. It truly is early and I'm very optimistic that we can turn this around. I have a lot of faith in our guys, it's just not working right now."

The numbers support Maddon's comments. Here's a breakdown of some key stats for the Rays so far:

5.08 Earned-run average of the Tampa Bay starters, ninth-best in the American League and a significant drop from last season, when the Rays rotation had a 3.95 ERA that ranked second-best in the league. (Only the Los Angeles Angels were better.) Minus ace James Shields, the rest of the Tampa rotation has a 5.55 ERA. Matt Garza (4.97), Andy Sonnanstine (7.78), and Jeff Niemann (4.43) will precede Shields in this series.

5.20 Earned-run average of the Red Sox starters, 10th best in the league and one spot behind Tampa. As impressive as the Sox’ record is been thus far, the starting rotation has been a disappointment. Despite that, the Sox have nearly the opposite record (14-7) of the Rays.

11 Earned runs allowed by Garza in his last 11 1/3 innings, a span covering two starts. But against the Red Sox, Garza is 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last five outings covering the regular season and postseason. Tampa Bay has won all five contests.

60 Walks issued by Tampa pitchers, the highest total in baseball and a rate of roughly 4.3 walks per nine innings pitched. That is a significant increase over last season, when the Rays averaged just 2.8 walks per nine innings and were one of the best pitching teams in the league.

93 Walks drawn by the Red Sox this season, fourth-most in the American League and a big reason the Sox have an American League-leading .373 on-base percentage. Factoring in the wildness of the Tampa Bay pitchers and the discipline of the Red Sox lineup, this does not bode especially well for a Rays staff that is having difficulty throwing strikes.

3.92 Earned-run average of the Tampa Bay relief corps, a number that currently ranks sixth in the American League. For all of the questions about the Tampa bullpen entering this season, Rays relievers have been far more reliable than the starters. Still, Tampa possesses the only bullpen in the American League that has yet to be credited with a win, though that is as much a reflection on the disappointing Tampa Bay offense as anything else.

2.375 Strikeout-to-hit ratio of Tampa Bay outfielder B.J. Upton, who has been a colossal disappointment early in the season. After a monstrous postseason a year ago, Upton began this season on the disabled list and has looked like a shell of himself since being activated. In 64 plate appearances over 14 games, Upton has two extra-base hits, no homers and one RBI.

28 League-leading bases stolen, in 32 attempts, by the Rays so far this season. Though Tampa ranks just 10th in the league in runs scored, the Rays have been running -- and running successfully -- when given the chance. Expect them to pressure Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny throughout the series. Beckett has been having trouble working from the stretch and knuckleballer Wakefield always has been susceptible to the running game.

10½ In games, margin by which the Rays will trail Boston this season on the odd chance they are swept in the four-game series this weekend. That scenario, while unlikely, would leave the Rays with an unsightly 8-18 record in what looks to be the toughest division in baseball, about as daunting a scenario as they could have encountered in the early season.

In the big picture and the small, the New York Yankees clearly have some catching up to do. For as little as we can draw from one weekend in April, the Red Sox were better at the beginning, better in the middle, better at the end of this series.

Boston and New York parted ways last night following the Sox' 4-1 victory over the Yankees to complete a three-game series sweep at Fenway Park, and the contrasts were striking as Derek Jeter led a cast of exiting New Yorkers toting roll-away luggage through the caverns of America's oldest ballpark. On a night when the Yankees sent 36-year-old Andy Pettitte to the mound in hopes of avoiding a sweep, the Red Sox got eight innings from 24-year-old Justin Masterson, 25-year-old Hunter Jones, and 22-year-old Michael Bowden. Uncle Andy just couldn't keep up with the kids. During the weekend, the Yankees frequently looked old and inept, particularly when it came time to match up depth-wise with the Red Sox' vaunted pitching staff.

As it turns out, maybe we all made a poor assessment of their pitching depth entering this season. Maybe, instead of having 12 quality pitchers, they have 14, or 16 . . .

"Or 18 or 20?" manager Terry Francona asked rhetorically following the team's 10th consecutive win and a perfect 9-0 homestand. "On nights like tonight, I think I'll get on the bus [to fly to Cleveland] and I'll call [Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson] and [director of player development] Mike Hazen. It's kind of like an organizational win. I think there were probably a lot of guys watching the game who were as excited as we were."

As for the rest of who watched what amounted to 12 hours of baseball over three very long days, we are well aware that the game is a never-ending test. We can nonetheless draw some conclusions from the season's first head-to-head meetings between clubs with combined payrolls approaching $350 million. The Yankees need bullpen help, plain and simple, or they will finish third in the ironclad American League East. With Brian Bruney on the disabled list and Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation, New York couldn't match up with Jones and Bowden, let alone Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The best solution for New York would require Chien-Ming Wang's resurrection and the emergence of Phil Hughes, which might allow manager Joe Girardi to put Chamberlain back where he belongs, in the bullpen.

This brings us back to Boston and New York and the philosophies that have shaped both organizations, the identities that define these cities. In the long run, the Red Sox still could use someone like Mark Teixeira, but the Sox currently are operating with no major areas of weakness. General manager Theo Epstein has built the kind of self-sustaining machine he dreamed of, particularly with regard to the pitching, and Boston's depth in that area makes the Red Sox a potential trade partner with every other team in baseball. That will give the Sox the flexibility of addressing any holes.

The Yankees? Repairs might not be so easy. Trading away whatever young talent the Yankees possess seemingly would exacerbate the long-term problem, that being New York's shortage of help coming from the farm system. In his current role, even Chamberlain is starting to look rather ordinary. Faced with almost exactly the same choice three years ago at roughly this time, the Red Sox opted to keep Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen rather than employ him as a starter. They chose perhaps two or three dominating innings a week over maybe seven decent ones, a decision that has paid enormous dividends.

And if the Yankees opted for the other route because they have a greater need in the starting rotation, that speaks to Boston's greater efficiency in drafting players as well as developing them.

With regard to position players, too, the difference between Boston and New York is becoming striking. Over the weekend, while Brett Gardner was going 1 for 9 with two strikeouts and a run scored, Jacoby Ellsbury went 5 for 13 with five runs scored, a home run, and four steals, including one of home last night. Ellsbury still needs to prove that he can be consistent, but it is worth noting that he is actually a month younger than Gardner..

"We don't even squeeze very often, let alone that," Sox manager Terry Francona said when asked about Ellsbury's dynamic steal of home. "It certainly ignited the ballpark."

Even then, for all of the attention surrounding Ellsbury's trapeze act, his steal might not have been the most revealing play of the night. That might have come earlier, when Jason Bay stole second against Pettitte, renowned for being tough to run against. The steal was Bay's second of the season and made him an astonishing 48 of 52 since the start of the 2005 season, a success rate of 92.3 percent. What that speaks to, more than anything else, was Bay's "conscientious" nature -- that's Francona's word -- and the Red Sox' ability to scout, detect, and exploit. Bay was rather circumspect about what he detected in Pettitte's pickoff move, mechanics or tendencies, but the point is that he knows something.

"Some guys are fast enough to get into trouble. I'm not," Bay said. "I pick and choose my spots very carefully, like when I get a leg kick or a breaking ball count."

Does all of this mean that the Yankees absolutely, positively cannot and will not defeat the Red Sox this season? Of course not. There is a lot of baseball to be played. But at the moment, given injuries and other issues, the Red Sox are clearly the superior team with a deeper bullpen and headier players, and one of big reasons for that is some shrewd decision-making, on the field and off.

But then, as we all know, baseball very much can be a mental game.

From the very beginning, the question was whether we would see the Josh Beckett of 2007, who won 20 games, or the Josh Beckett of 2008, who was hindered by injury. We never really considered whether we might see the Beckett of 2006.

And yet, a mere four starts into the 2009 campaign, that is precisely where Beckett stands today as the possessor of a 2-1 record and 6.00 ERA in the wake of yesterday’s 16-11 Sox victory over the New York Yankees in what might as well have been Arena League baseball at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are now 3-1 in Beckett’s four starts and could easily be 4-0, but this is hardly the kind of beginning anyone envisioned for the Red Sox’ demanding ace.

Especially Beckett.

"I can’t pinpoint any one thing and say, 'This is why it was [poor],' " Beckett said while standing in front of his locker, speaking to yesterday’s outing in particular. "It wasn’t good. The only good thing that happened is that we scored runs and we won the game."

This was one game, naturally, but we all know how baseball works. Beckett entered yesterday’s affair with a 2-1 record and 3.79 ERA, though his previous two outings had been, in a word, mediocre. Toss in yesterday’s clunker and Beckett now has a 7.94 ERA over his last three starts, a period during which he has allowed 15 earned runs, 24 hits, 10 walks and 34 baserunners in just 17 innings.

So, what exactly is going on here? That is hard to say. Beginning with manager Terry Francona, the Red Sox believed the Beckett of yesterday was "too strong" in the wake of a seven-day layoff following his disputable five-game suspension, but that is only a small part of the story. Beckett is having some difficulty from the stretch position (a .349 average against him with men on base), and some against lefthanded batters (hitting .303 against him), and additional variables yesterday turned what should have been a marquee pitchers’ duel into some kind of silly carnival game.

For starters, the strike zone was small. On top of that, the ball was carrying well. Add in Beckett’s inability to command his fastball and you, too, could have stepped right up and won a prize.

Consider this: Yesterday, until the first pitch of the fourth inning (to Derek Jeter) and Beckett’s 75th offering of the game, Beckett did not get a swing and miss on a fastball. To that point, he had produced just three swings and misses overall, one on a changeup (to Hideki Matsui), two on curveballs (to Nick Swisher and Angel Berroa). At one point, in the third inning, Beckett threw eight straight curveballs to Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, and Jorge Posada, an unusual occurrence for a man who could power the Merrimack Valley with his fastball.

The bottom line is that Beckett lost confidence in his fastball yesterday because he simply could not harness it, so he adjusted and tried to pitch backwards for as long as he could. Francona ended up getting five innings out of Beckett and even tried for a sixth, acknowledging that Friday night’s epic left him with no choice but to be "a little greedy" in hopes of preserving his bullpen.

Of course, as we all saw last October, Beckett can only last for so long without his fastball, especially against a good lineup with a small strike zone on a day when the ballpark was playing even smaller.

"He just kept trying to battle his way through it,’’ catcher Jason Varitek admitted of Beckett’s attempt to negotiate his way through the Yankees lineup. "I tip my hat to Josh for doing that."

As for Beckett’s other problems, they are a bit more worrisome, if only for the fact that they suggest a pattern. While righthanded batters are hitting just .207 against Beckett this season with no extra-base hits and a paltry .510 OPS, lefties have an .851 OPS against him. Meanwhile, the numbers against Beckett with men on base are staggering -- a 1.047 OPS to go along with .349 average -- and we all know that aces are supposed to get tougher when the situation calls for it.

With the bases empty this season -- those occasions when Beckett is pitching from the windup -- opponents are batting .212 with a .492 OPS and more strikeouts (17) than hits (11).

Admitted pitching coach John Farrell when asked about Beckett’s difficulties with men on, which translates into the pitcher’s difficulties from the stretch position, "There’s a little bit of tendency to use the slide step so much [and control the opposing running game] that we haven’t seen consistency in his release point."

For Beckett, the good news is that the season is less than a month old and that his routine will return to normal this week, when he gets back on his five-day program. That puts Beckett in line to pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday in St. Petersburg, where the Red Sox will open a four-game series. After that, Beckett will get another chance at the Yankees. In New York, on what will be the finale of a nine-game road trip that begins in Cleveland tomorrow.

But then, after yesterday, who could blame the Sox ace if he wants to get away for a while?

The moments that once belonged to David Ortiz now take place in spite of him, as sure a sign as any that the Red Sox have again changed. The Red Sox of today are built around Kevin Youkilis, who seemingly has taken it upon himself now to replace Manny Ramirez and Ortiz both.

The Greek God of Walks is so much more than that these days, going 2 for 4 with walkoff home run last night in the Red Sox’ inspiring and improbable 5-4 extra-inning victory over the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Like a pent-up Milan Lucic, Youkilis continues to hit most everything in his path. The first baseman of the Red Sox has a .433 average and silly 1.317 OPS, and it may be time to take Youkilis out of the Parthenon and put him in his own corner.

He just may be the best hitter in the American League.

"I don’t think he gets enough credit and I don’t think it bothers him,’’ Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay said of his teammate. "But what he’s doing right now is above and beyond. I don’t think he’s going to have that [relative] obscurity that much longer."

Bay admits that he did not know much about Youkilis before the trade that sent Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer, a move that simultaneously brought Bay to Boston and closed the book on one era in Red Sox history while seemingly opening another. Just like that, though we hardly knew it at the time, a Louisville Slugger was passed as if it were a baton. Ortiz lamented Ramirez's departure last summer and continued to vent this spring, though a funny thing has since taken place.

Youkilis has turned into Ramirez and Ortiz has morphed into ... who? Sam Horn? Calvin Pickering? Since Aug. 1 of last season, the line of delineation pre- and post-Manny, Youkilis is batting .350 with a 1.116 OPS and 58 RBIs in 61 regular season games. Ortiz is batting .250 with an OPS of .820. Add in the postseason and Youkilis is batting .339 with 65 RBIs in 72 games while Ortiz is batting .241, which makes at least one thing absolutely indisputable.

As much as Ortiz might think he misses Manny, he couldn’t have had better protection over the last nine months if he had hired the Secret Service.

Youkilis, for one, clearly was tweaked by Ortiz's desire for another hitter in the Boston lineup, something he thinly veiled during spring training. Asked about concerns over the Boston lineup during the World Baseball Classic, Youkilis said that he liked "our team" and "every hitter in our lineup," stressing that "there’s only one guy on the team who feels we need more." Baseball being the lesson in humility that it is, Youkilis has since looked like a Triple Crown candidate while Ortiz has struggled to hit .215, the latter of which seems like an excessive way to prove a point.

After all, could Ortiz possibly have imagined that the Red Sox might be a hitter short because of, well, him?

Last night, in the first season meeting between the Red Sox and Yankees, Ortiz certainly had his chances. He finished 1 for 6 with four strikeouts and left three men on base. Leading off in the ninth inning against Mariano Rivera, Ortiz struck out before Youkilis's single (a sharp liner to center) and Bay’s dramatic game-tying homer with two outs in the ninth. Two innings later, in the decisive 11th, Ortiz again led off with a strikeout before Youkilis pounded his game-winner over the left field wall against Yankees lefthander Damaso Marte.

In that way, maybe it was only fitting that Youkilis was the only man to be directly in the middle of the Red Sox’ game-tying and winning rallies, if only for the fact that he has been at the center of Boston’s offense for the better part of the last 18 months. Beginning with a sterling performance in the 2007 postseason, Youkilis is batting .328 with 150 RBIs in his last 175 games. Manager Terry Francona has moved Youkilis around the batting order and across the diamond, and Youkilis has continued hit at a pace to keep him in the same statistical class as, say, Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Cabrera.

Youkilis has been hitting whoever, whatever, and wherever he wants, and one must strain to remember him having a poor at-bat.

"He does a lot of the things that a lot of the good hitters do,’’ observed Bay. "Especially right now, when he gets the pitch he wants to hit, he’s hitting it. He’s not missing it or fouling it off. My impression of him when I got here, because he was the Greek God of Walks and all that, was that he would take pitches just for the sake of taking them. That couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t know if it was different before that or not.’’

Over the last two seasons, especially, Youkilis has indeed become a little more aggressive at the plate, though that could be as much a product of where he is batting in the bottom lineup as it is a testament to his maturity as a hitter. Youkilis's walk total went from 91 to 77 to 62 from 2006-2008, but his on-base percentage has increased. The simple explanation is that Youkilis’s batting average has gone up, which is to say that his bat has become as great a weapon as his keen eye.

Last night, even Yankees ace Joba Chamberlain approached Youkilis with trepidation, a compliment of the highest order given the seeming recklessness with which Chamberlain has approached Youkilis in the past. Chamberlain faced Youkilis on three occasions last night and walked him twice, the second intentionally after falling behind in the count, 3-1. Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland had preceded that at-bat by visiting Chamberlain on the mound, presumably to discuss the possibility of walking Youkilis intentionally with two outs and runners at second and third.

Though Chamberlain talked a good game with his pitching coach -- thanks to the wonder of high-definition television, Chamberlain appeared to mouth an expletive when the option of walking Youkilis came up -- Chamberlain handled the at-bat with care. He threw Youkilis offspeed pitches (primarily sliders) that were down and away before conceding the at-bat, then got J.D. Drew to end the inning on a flyout to left field.

Translation: No mas.

For Youkilis, the intentional walk was his third of the season, more than anyone in the game but Pujols, Ramirez, and Toronto first baseman Lyle Overbay (?). For the Sox as a team, the intentional walk was their seventh. Eight innings later, after Youkilis blasted a Marte pitch toward Kenmore Square, one can only wonder if the Yankees will approach Youkilis with even grater caution today and tomorrow.

Could it be that he is now the Greek God of Intentional Walks?

Editor's note: Click here for an interactive version of this story.

The Yankees are coming, the Yankees are coming, the Yankees are coming. And just as Boston will get its first look at New York this season, so too will New York get its first look at Boston.

By now, we all know the baseball season has a certain pace. The first two months are for evaluation. The next two months are for addressing weaknesses. The last two months are for separating contenders and pretenders. The 2009 Red Sox and Yankees both figure to be there in the home stretch, though the truth is that we know relatively little about them at this stage of the year.

How do these teams compare? Entering Friday night’s opener of a three-game series, the Red Sox and Yankees have identical records (9-6) and have scored an identical number of runs (84). The Red Sox have allowed just 63 runs to New York’s 97, fueling the notion that Boston has one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, top to bottom.

Focusing primarily on this weekend’s series, here is how the Red Sox and Yankees match up so far:

Table-setters (top two hitters in lineup)
The Red Sox have Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, the Yankees have Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. While the Red Sox have the edge defensively, the offense so far looks pretty even. Jeter has been hitting for power early on (he has four homers already after hitting 11 all of last season) and Damon is in a contract year, and reports of the demise of each have been greatly exaggerated. For the Red Sox, the real key is Ellsbury, whose play has improved of late but who can also be plagued by inconsistency. For both teams, as usual, keeping the Nos. 1 and 2 hitters off base this weekend will be important for both pitching staffs. Edge: Even.

Heart of the order (Nos. 3-6 in lineup)
For the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez and Xavier Nady are out with injuries. On Wednesday, the Nos. 3-6 hitters consisted of Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and Nick Swisher, the last two of whom are off to terrific starts. Only Teixeira (.222) has been a disappointment thus far. Though Nady could be lost for an extended period with an elbow injury, the Yankees' lineup will get better when Rodriguez returns. Swisher looks like a terrific pickup so far, particularly with Nady ailing. Hideki Matsui began the season as the cleanup hitter but struggled.

For the Red Sox, the best news of late is that David Ortiz has shown signs of life. Beyond him, Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew, and Jason Bay are all off to good starts, giving the Red Sox the kind of depth through the middle of the lineup that they had hoped for. Youkilis, in particular, has been arguably the best hitter in baseball over the first part of the season and has a .347 career average against the current Yankees staff. The first pitcher to face him in this series will be Joba Chamberlain. Do stay tuned. Edge: Red Sox.

Bottom of the order (Nos. 7-9 in lineup)
The Yankees should have depth here, but the absence of Rodriguez leaves minor league veteran Cody Ransom in the No. 9 hole. Melky Cabrera had a big day with two home runs Wednesday, but Brett Gardner has been ineffective so far and Matsui is just starting to show life. For the Red Sox, Mike Lowell has 16 RBIs in the team's 15 games, Jason Varitek (.872 OPS) has had productive at-bats, and shortstop fill-in Nick Green has given the club unexpected thump in the No. 9 hole. Green may or may not continue that, but so far he's been terrific. Edge: Red Sox.

Weekend rotations
For the three games, the Yankees will send Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte to the mound against, in order, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Justin Masterson. To ensure those pairings, the Yankees are skipping over the beleaguered Chien-Ming Wang, who has allowed 23 earned runs in six innings. Based on early-season results, all three contests look like very even matchups that could produce tight games. The marquee pairing is Saturday's potential duel between Beckett (2-1, 3.79) and Burnett (2-0, 3.20) in a nationally televised game. Regardless, there is the potential here for three tight games. Edge: Even.

Balance of rotations
Already, the Red Sox' depth is showing. Given CC Sabathia's relatively poor start (1-1, 4.81 ERA), Tim Wakefield is currently the best starter who will not appear in the series. Also, two of Brad Penny's three starts have been decent. While Sabathia almost certainly will get better, the Yankees have major concerns about Wang, who thus far has been getting pounded like a piñata. Wang is an important part of New York's rotation depth because he is a two-time 19-game winner who had a 54-20 career record entering this season. If he doesn't get better soon, the Yankees' lack of depth could get exposed. Edge: Red Sox

Bullpens
Through Wednesday, among American League teams, only the Seattle Mariners have posted a better relief ERA than the Red Sox, whose bullpen has been everything we expected it to be. The Red Sox can relentlessly fire quality pitchers at the opposition, which should bode well (in theory) in close games against good teams. For the Yankees, Brian Bruney thus far has been a nice complement to the otherworldly Mariano Rivera, but the Yankees still have lots of questions here. New York's lefties have been especially ineffective so far and middle relief is potentially soft. Edge: Red Sox.

Benches
With Rocco Baldelli out, the Red Sox will operate with a weekend group of George Kottaras, Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter, and Gil Velazquez. Depending on whom the Yankees elect to start in center field, manager Joe Girardi will counter with a group of Jose Molina, Ramiro Pena, and either Cabrera or Gardner. Wang's difficulties have inspired the Yankees to carry 13 pitchers on their roster, which means Girardi has only three bench players at any given time. Neither the Sox nor the Yankees are expected to pinch hit much, but the extra player gives the Red Sox more depth. Edge: Red Sox.

Managers
Amazing how things change, eh? Not too long ago, when Joe Torre managed the Yankees and Grady Little oversaw the Red Sox, New York had the clear edge. Now, the opposite is true. While Terry Francona has emerged as one of the very best managers in baseball, the Yankees have major questions about their skipper. Girardi could end up as the American League Manager of the Year this season ... or he could be the first skipper in baseball to be fired. So far, things generally have gone well for the Yankees, which is a good sign for the manager. But anytime the Red Sox and Yankees meet, the less accomplished manager is likely to be scrutinized. Edge: Red Sox.

Weekend prediction
In the end, no matter what happens this weekend, remember this: The Red Sox and Yankees will be feeling each other out for the next several weeks. Every year brings changes because even familiar players are a year older or more experienced; others are coming off injuries. Last year means nothing at the moment. By August, these games will mean nothing, too. But at the moment, the Red Sox appear to have the deeper lineup and the deeper pitching staff, and they will be playing at home. This weekend may tell us more about New York than it does about Boston, largely because the Yankees made more changes. Expect the Red Sox to win at least two of the three games.

One of the beauties of baseball is that the game does not discriminate. Beating the stuffing out of a club like the Baltimore Orioles means every bit as much as a win over the Tampa Bay Rays, or New York Yankees, or Los Angeles Angels.

At least during the regular season.

Owners of a 3-6 record and seemingly inept offense just four days ago, the Red Sox completed a weekend block party with a 12-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles today at Fenway Park. For the four games -- which included Baltimore starter Koji Uehara’s nifty performance on Sunday -- the Sox batted .328 and slugged an absurd .547. They scored more runs against the uh-O’s (30) than they did against everyone else during the first eight games of the season (29).

Good thing, too. If the Sox couldn’t hammer this pitching staff, we’d have some serious worrying to do.

"That’s why you don’t panic the first two weeks of the season," Sox manager Terry Francona said when asked specifically about the performance of Nos. 1 and 2 hitters, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, who went a combined 7 for 12 with six runs scored today. "You look up, at one point Jacoby’s hitting .275, then Pedey the same thing. We say it every year but it happens. Everything gets blown out of proportion and you just try to play good baseball because, at some point in the season when you start logging enough at-bats and innings, you get into the grind. And if you’re good, it shows.’’

And if you’re bad, it shows even more.

Case in point: the Orioles, who were 6-3 when they arrived at Fenway and subsequently pitched as if playing pin-the-tail-on-donkey. Minus Uehara’s game on Sunday, Baltimore pitchers walked 17 batters in 24 innings, an average of 6.4 walks per nine. Kevin Youkilis alone reached base 10 times in the series and walked three times in the finale, when the Orioles clearly decided they would not provide him a platform for Triple Crown candidacy.

Capisce? The Orioles pitching is not bad. It is positively wretched. Baltimore’s ace -- and we use that term very loosely -- is Jeremy Guthrie, who might have difficulty beating out Brad Penny for the fifth spot in the Boston rotation. As a result, Baltimore’s best chance at a victory may have come Friday night, when the Orioles staked him to a 7-0 lead in the second inning.

As it turned out, Guthrie and the Orioles blew the kind of lead that it is virtually impossible for any major league team to blow.

Along the way -- especially today -- the Orioles showed that they cannot play defense very well, either, which is a combustible formula for a team with a bad pitching staff.

"You’ve got to have all three elements to give yourself a chance to win. You’ve got to pitch well, you’ve got to play good defense, you’ve got to have timely hitting,’’ said Orioles manager Dave Trembley. "Some of the balls today found some holes. Some others were a little unfortunate. I think it’s just part of the game and you go from there, but we’re all very much aware of the importance of the fundamentals.’’

Executing them, however, is another matter entirely. (At times like this, Trembley may want to remember the legendary words of former Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach John McKay. Asked about his team’s execution following an unsightly loss, McKay replied: "I’m in favor of it.’’)

For the Red Sox, there is good news on several fronts from all of this, not the least of which is a restoration of the club’s offensive swagger. Entering the eighth inning of Tim Wakefield’s masterpiece at Oakland last week -- and that game is looking bigger by the moment -- the Sox were batting a mere .234 on the season with 32 runs scored in their first 81 innings. Since that time, the Sox have batted .338 with 36 runs in 34 innings, the last 32 of which came against the Orioles.

Further, the Sox still have 14 games left with Baltimore this season, including 11 in what amounts to the latter half of the schedule. Assuming the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees beat up on one another as much as we all expect this season, victories over clubs like Baltimore will be of particular importance. The fact that the Sox took all four games of the series certainly bodes well for their ability to beat up on the Orioles when they need to. Giving away games to teams like Baltimore could prove costly in the end, particularly when one considers where the Orioles rate in the much bigger picture.

Baltimore, after all, may not be merely the worst team in the American League East this season. The O’s might be the worst team in the entire American League.

Unfortunately for them, others -- like the Sox -- will find great satisfaction in kicking them when they’re down.

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Before anyone suggests that the worst is over, remember that momentum begins and ends in the very same place.

"It goes about as far as your starting pitcher [in the next game],’’ Red Sox manager Terry Francona said today following an 8-2 win over the Oakland A’s that felt like a liberating experience. "I do know I’d rather get on the plane winning rather than losing, but I think you turn the page. I think you have to.’’

As a result, only one question matters:

What happens next?

Roughly 12 hours after Daisuke Matsuzaka melted down on the Oakland Coliseum mound Tuesday night, the Red Sox showed up for work today in a virtual state of disarray. Matsuzaka promptly went on the disabled list. The Red Sox bullpen was spent. Minor league callup Hunter Jones had begun what became a 12-hour journey to nowhere, making consecutive transcontinental journeys to and from the West Coast as if he were the hardball answer to Charles Lindbergh.

Then Tim Wakefield went out and turned the clock back to 1995 -- taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and pitching a complete-game four-hitter -- after which he and his teammates similarly journeyed back to the future known as Eastern Daylight Time.

Players being players, they believe in momentum. They believe in confidence and the power of positive thinking, and they believe that chemistry helps them win games. They believe that the slightest bit of good fortune can get them on a roll, just as Kevin Millar eternally preserved for us on video during batting practice before Game 4 of the 2004 American League Championship Series.

Does that mean Brad Penny will pitch the Sox to a resounding victory over the Baltimore Orioles when the Sox return to Fenway Park on Friday night? No. But the Red Sox feel a lot better about themselves now than if Wakefield had dealt them the other extreme.

"I do believe that, yes, and I believe that games can have a lasting effect over the short term even if not over the long term,’’ said veteran third baseman Mike Lowell. "If Wake threw four innings and we had to use our bullpen for another five innings, there could be a hangover effect. I don’t think we can overvalue how important his start was for us.’’

True enough.

In the interim, the Red Sox are still 3-6 and have lost all three of their series to start the season, one each to the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and A’s. David Ortiz has more strikeouts (eight) than total bases (seven), and Jon Lester has pitched far more like Ramiro Mendoza (21 baserunners in 10 innings) than Sandy Koufax. Already, the Sox are three deep on the depth chart at shortstop.

A baseball lifer who has been a player, coach, and manager, Francona understands the bigger picture as well as anyone. Of course, that is a key reason he became a successful manager at all. As much as players and spectators like to believe the games are all connected, men like Francona see them as entirely separate entities. The Sox could have scored 18 runs today, but that won’t mean a darned thing if Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie does to them what Wakefield just did to the A’s.

That is why, when the Sox faced playoff deficits in their world championship years of 2004 and 2007, Francona did not juggle his rotation or try to squeeze blood from a stone. He just filled out his lineup card and let the team play. If the Red Sox ended up losing as a result, Francona was willing to accept the reality that the other team was simply the better one.

This year, quite definitively, we can state that the Red Sox have not been as good as their competition. One flashback performance by a 42-year-old knuckleballer does not change that. Until the eighth inning today, the Sox had scored a mere 29 runs in their first 81 innings, an average of just 2.8 per nine. For the moment, today’s six-run, game-breaking outburst in the eighth inning is the aberration rather than the rule, just like the final innings in unforgettable Game 5 of last year’s American League Championship Series.

In baseball, more than any other sport, the true measure of success comes in consistency. Any player can have a good week, month, or even year. The same is true of almost any team. The most accomplished individual and groups succeed over and over again, which is why someone like Greg Maddux is going to the Hall of Fame. It is also why this era in Red Sox history stands out from any other, the Sox having won two world titles and played in four AL Championship Series while making five trips to the postseason over the last six years.

This year? Because every year is a new year, there is still a lot about this team we do not know yet. We don’t know about Ortiz and we don’t know about Lowell, and we don’t know about Penny or Takashi Saito or John Smoltz. As much as players and teams would like their past achievements to afford them greater latitude, the harsh reality is that the game stops for no one.

At the moment, what we do know is that the 2009 Red Sox had their first meaningful victory in the wake of Tuesday’s potentially damaging loss.

We just don’t know how many others they will have yet, or they can even win two games in a row.

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Red Sox have made no formal announcements yet, but Justin Masterson looks like the probable choice to replace Daisuke Matsuzaka in the starting rotation next week. Unfortunately, because of the Josh Beckett suspension, the Red Sox now have other things to consider as well.

According to a spokesperson for Major League Baseball this afternoon, Beckett’s appeal hearing with MLB disciplinary dean Bob Watson has yet to be scheduled, meaning the Red Sox still are not sure if or when they will lose their ace for one start. (Bet on when.) For now, the only certainty is that Matsuzaka has been placed on the disabled list.

If and when Beckett sits out, the Sox will need to make another move. That would make Hunter Jones’s stint with the Red Sox quite temporary. Given that the Sox have off days this Thursday and next Thursday (April 23), don’t be surprised if they push for a quick resolution on Beckett so that they can more effectively manage his suspension. Postponing the suspension could ultimately put the Boston staff under even more duress, so the Sox might be better served to deal with the matter sooner rather than later.

Because the Sox cannot replace Beckett on the roster, the team would likely summon a replacement (other than Jones, who is a reliever) from the minors. That replacement would almost certainly return to the minors after the game, presumably for another reliever. That reliever (Daniel Bard?) would then assume Masterson’s place in the bullpen.

That is probably part of the reason Jones -- and not Bard -- is here now. Got all that?

As for Masterson’s ascension to the rotation, Francona’s intentions became clear during Tuesday’s game, when he allowed Masterson to throw 60 pitches over four innings. In blowouts, Francona typically likes to spread out the workload so that no single reliever is overworked. In this case, he clearly anticipated Masterson entering the rotation next week for Matsuzaka, whose next turn would have come up on Patriots Day.

Now, Masterson will likely get the ball.

"The idea was to get him to a point where we would at least have a decision to make," Francona said about Masterson's extended appearance.

As for Clay Buchholz, he tweaked a hamstring after pitching for Pawtucket on Sunday. Even had Buchholz been fully healthy, the Sox might not have recalled him.

If and when the Sox bring Buchholz back to the majors, the best-case scenario would have him coming up for a prolonged stint during which he would be able to pitch without the pressure of a potential demotion. Given Buchholz’s struggles last year, his development at the major league level could be at a critical stage.

Of course, this is baseball.

Which means everything is subject to change.

(Editor's note: Since the initial posting of this column, Daisuke Matsuzaka has been placed on the disabled list.)

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The golden rule of baseball is that you can never have enough pitching. The 2009 Red Sox have needed all of eight games to be reminded of that yet again.

Slightly more than a week after opening the season with what looked like the deepest pitching staff in baseball, the Sox were brought to their knees last night (make that early this morning) in a 6-5, 12-inning road loss to the Oakland A's. On a night when Daisuke Matsuzaka lasted one inning before reluctantly departing from the game -- more on this shortly -- Sox manager Terry Francona had to sap his bullpen for 10 2/3 innings as his team tumbled to a 2-6 start.

So what happens now? Excellent question. With Tim Wakefield due to start today's series finale, the Sox are scrambling for pitchers. Matsuzaka could be headed for the disabled list. The bullpen is close to cooked. The Sox now have to play a day game after an absurdly long night game, and the idea of bringing another pitcher to the West Coast seems foolish given the approximately 3,000-mile return flight to Boston awaiting the Sox after the game.

The good news? The Sox have a scheduled day off on Thursday. Nonetheless, Francona today could be faced with the prospect of either, 1) leaving Wakefield on the mound longer than he wants to; 2) employing other members of his starting rotation as relievers; or, in a worst case scenario, 3) using positional players to safeguard against injury on his pitching staff.

Not exactly gifts of gold, frankincense and myrrh.

"We've talked some already and we'll probably talk again," Francona said after the game when asked if he had touched base with general manager Theo Epstein about the state of his pitching staff. "It's not the easiest thing in the world [to fly a pitcher across the country]."

This brings us back to Matsuzaka, the two-time Most Valuable Player of the World Baseball Classic with whom the Sox clearly are not seeing eye-to-eye. According to Francona, Matsuzaka had some soreness following his season-opening start against Tampa Bay last week at Fenway Park. According to Matsuzaka, nothing "in particular" is ailing him. Whatever the cause, Matsuzaka's first two starts of the season have produced a 12.79 ERA, a pair of Red Sox defeats, and a whopping 14 1/3 innings of work for the bullpen, which has led the Red Sox to an easy and obvious conclusion.

The WBC did this to him.

And, by association, to them.

Like most clubs, the Sox detest the WBC because of the potential risk that comes with it. In posting fees and contractual commitments, they have a shade more than $103 million invested in Matsuzaka. The Sox were annoyed by Matsuzaka's workload in the WBC and have since chosen their words carefully, presumably to avoid criticizing Major League Baseball (and, by extension, unofficial WBC architect Bud Selig) as well as Japanese baseball officials, to whom the WBC clearly means so much.

Yet, just eight games into the season, the fact remains that Matsuzaka now has what the Sox described as arm "fatigue" during last night's game. Quite simply, the Sox believe that Matsuzaka did too much too soon, and they are probably right. Even if they are not, convincing them of otherwise will be darned near impossible given the meticulous nature with which the Sox have handled their pitchers in recent years.

"All the things we worried about," Francona said after rattling off a list of concerns the Sox had about Matsuzaka's participation in the event. "Then he threw his bullpen [over the weekend in Anaheim] and we assumed he was fine."

Francona volunteered to absorb his share of the heat for that -- "I'm going to have to take some blame," he said nobly -- but the problems here seem to run much, much deeper than any discussion the Sox had with Matsuzaka following last week's game against Tampa. Clearly, the team and pitcher have not been on the same page with regard to the pitcher's spring workload and his role in the WBC, and Matsuzaka seems to be getting tired of the suggestion that the event is detrimental to his longer-term availability to the club.

Last month, after Matsuzaka made his only Sox start of spring training, pitcher John Farrell acknowledged that Matsuzaka was stronger this year based on their objective spring tests. Nonetheless, Farrell, like Francona, seemed to have concerns about the effect of WBC wear and tear. A short time later, Matsuzaka all but contradicted his pitching coach's assessment, saying he preferred to take the opposite approach, believing the WBC would make him stronger.

Last night, Matsuzaka indicated he was prepared to remain in the game when the Sox pulled him after an ugly first inning during which Matsuzaka threw 43 pitches (a mere 22 strikes) while allowing five hits, five runs, and two walks. After the game, Farrell summoned translator Masa Hoshino for a conversation with Matsuzaka in the clubhouse. A short time after that, Matsuzaka declined to answer questions about his desire to remain in the game.

"It's not something I really want to discuss at the moment," he said through Hoshino.

As for Francona's assertion that Matsuzaka is ailing physically, at least in some capacity?

"I haven't had the chance to speak with the manager," Matsuzaka said. "But for me, personally, I think I'm fine."

At the moment, the same cannot be said for the Sox, who now have some unexpected juggling to do. If Matsuzaka ends up the disabled list -- bets, anyone? -- the most logical candidate to replace him may be Justin Masterson, who pitched four sensational innings in relief (six strikeouts) last night. That would create a bullpen spot for a current minor leaguer (Daniel Bard?), though it would also strip the Sox of perhaps their most versatile reliever.

Whatever the case, the Red Sox don't have too much time to decide.

Today, after all, first pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. Pacific time.

OAKLAND, Calif. -- And so now that Josh Beckett has a six-game suspension, we cannot help but wonder: Why does baseball have umpires anymore? Why bother with them at all? Why not police the game from New York, from a room with glass walls, aided by QuesTec and instant replay and the innate ability to distinguish right from wrong?

In case you missed it, Beckett was issued a six-game suspension this afternoon by Major League Baseball disciplinary dean Bob Watson in the wake of Sunday’s first-inning incident between the Sox and Los Angeles Angels. With one out and Chone Figgins on second base, Beckett came to the set and checked the runner. As his head was turned from the plate, Bobby Abreu asked for time. Beckett started his delivery and finally turned to the plate, and by the time he looked toward home, umpire Joe West was waving his arms wildly.

Beckett delivered the ball anyway, firing a fastball that whistled past Abreu’s head and caused both dugouts to empty.

Twice.

In the wake of all that, here is what home plate umpire, crew chief and 32-year umpiring veteran West did to the ace of the Red Sox: nothing. West heard the shouts between Beckett and Abreu, saw Angels reliever Justin Speier act like Tanyon Sturtze overdosed on testosterone. West didn’t seem to lose control of the game so much as Angels manager Mike Scioscia seemed to lose control of his team. While the Angels kicked and screamed like crazy men, Sox manager Terry Francona calmly urged his players to stay back, remain under control, keep their sanity.

In the end, four uniformed members of the Angels were ejected, from Scioscia to hitting coach Mickey Hatcher to Speier and Angels outfielder Torii Hunter. Beckett got to stay. So did Abreu. The Angels went on to a 5-4 victory in nine intensely contested innings of an April series that felt more like a meeting in October.

Today, two days after the fact, Watson decided that Beckett deserved a six-game suspension, ensuring he will miss one start, which doesn’t seem to make any sense at all given West’s public testimony on Sunday afternoon.

"Did he throw it up and in? Yeah,’’ West told a pool reporter. "Do we believe he threw it at Abreu? No. Would we have warned him had both benches not emptied? Probably not, but because both benches emptied, we did issue a warning.’’

And it was over.

Or so we all thought.

In the interest of fairness, let’s look at this from the Angels’ side for a moment. Like most every ace power pitcher from Bob Gibson to Pedro Martinez, Beckett stands on the mound like he owns it. His swagger is part of his act. Beckett throws hard and he throws inside. Over the course of his career, he has hit one batter roughly every four starts.

But a headhunter? No, no, no. A thousand times no. To opponents, especially, Beckett comes off as brash and cocky, reckless and nasty. It is one more reason to like him if he is on your side. On Sunday, the Angels seemed to act toward Beckett the way the New York Yankees once responded to Martinez, and you cannot help but wonder how much of a stink the Angels made with the league office on Monday.

"We were pretty shocked,’’ Beckett, who immediately appealed the decision, told reporters prior to tonight’s game between the Sox and Oakland A’s at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "I think the appeal kind of speaks for everything that we feel.’’

In sports now, here is the problem: the human element seems to count for less and less. Armed with the necessary formulas and software, it seems just about anyone can build a team. All you have to do is plug in the numbers and wait for the printout. If the performance on the field fails to correspond, it is the result of either a statistical deviation or a defective microprocessor.

Now, has it really reached the point where umpires have no purpose whatsoever? Balls and strikes are reviewed with digital technology. Home runs are checked with instant replay. And now human disputes are dissected from thousands of miles away, after the fact, contradicting the opinions of those with the responsibility of keeping order, of officials WHO WERE THERE.

Next month, the Red Sox go back to Angel Stadium in Anaheim.

Not so long ago, if the umpires didn’t take care of such things, the players would have done it themselves.

OAKLAND, Calif. -- There really is just one question: When? When is it officially time to start wondering? When does this become something more than just an ill-timed anomaly? When does a slump become a baseline performance?

Two more days? Two weeks? Two months?

The Red Sox lost another game last night, this one an 8-2 decision to the Oakland A's in the opener of a three-game series at the Oakland Coliseum. In the bigger picture, there is still nothing to worry about. In the shorter term, from Mike Lowell to David Ortiz to Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox have done little thus far to answer so many of the questions they took into the 2009 season.

Given their collection of talent and recent history, the Red Sox deserve the benefit of the doubt. We know they can play better than this. They know it, too. There is a high probability that we all forget this as soon as the Sox start stringing together quality at-bats and victories, which they are capable of doing at any moment. Had this season-opening streak taken place in June rather than April, we would chalk it up to nothing more than a meaningless midseason slide.

"I think it's more of a keep-the-line-moving mentality, and we've got to get to that point," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "We'll just keep battling, keep fighting."

In the interim, here is the disappointing picture from the first week, painted by the numbers:

6 Since Opening Day, innings in which Red Sox pitchers have taken the mound with a lead, including one last night, after Kevin Youkilis opened the second with a homer. Sox starter Jon Lester promptly gave up five runs in the bottom half, during which he allowed a homer, double, and three singles while also hitting a batter.

"I'm sure you guys are getting tired of me saying this," said Lester, who has allowed 18 hits, 11 runs and three homers in 11 innings this season, "but I don't think I'm pitching as bad as the linescore says."

.197 Excluding Kevin Youkilis (14 for 27, .519), the Red Sox' team batting average through the first seven games. Nos. 3, 5, and 7 hitters David Ortiz (5 for 24), J.D. Drew (3 for 20) and Mike Lowell (4 for 26) are a combined 12 for 70, a .171 average.

"We're good," Ortiz said after the game when asked if Sox hitters were in a collective slump. "We're going to be fine."

4 Double plays hit into by Lowell during the first seven games, one for every hit. Truth be told, Lowell probably would have five GIDPs were Oakland infielder Bobby Crosby a more skilled second baseman. A shortstop by trade, Crosby was a little slow on a turn in the seventh inning, allowing Jason Bay to bear down on him sufficiently so that Lowell could beat the throw to first by a split second.

.180 The Red Sox' team batting average so far this season with runners in scoring position, 9 for 50. Excluding Youkilis (2 for 4) and Jason Bay (3 for 7), the Sox are 4 for 39 in such situations, a .103 average. At the moment, among American League teams, only the Seattle Mariners have fewer at-bats than the Sox with runners in scoring position.

.211 The Red Sox' batting average this season against righthanded pitching, an especially poor reflection on the lefthanded hitters in the Boston lineup. Combined, Ellsbury (3 for 18, .167), Drew (2 for 15, .133), Ortiz (2 for 13, .154), Jason Varitek (3 for 14, .214) and Jed Lowrie (1 for 15, .067) are 11 for 75 with 17 strikeouts, a .147 average. Varitek (no strikeouts) has swung the bat better than his average suggests, but the others have not.

6.13 Minus Josh Beckett, the Red Sox' team ERA entering tonight's outing by Daisuke Matsuzaka, who threw 101 pitches in 5 1/3 innings against Tampa Bay last week in his first outing of the year. Undoubtedly anticipating that he would need his bullpen tonight, Francona employed Javier Lopez and Takashi Saito -- who threw 33 pitches -- last night behind Lester, giving Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson, and Jonathan Papelbon the night off.

1 Errors committed by the Sox in their first seven games, the lone miscue coming in the second game of the season. On that play, first baseman Youkilis made a diving stab to his right and tried to throw out Tampa Bay's Akinori Iwamura at second base, but the ball hit Iwamura and deflected into the outfield. The run ended up being earned, anyway. The Sox have not allowed an unearned run this year.

3 Games by which the Sox are below .500, their biggest drop below sea level since they were 1-4 at the start of the 2000 campaign. The Sox have not been four games under .500 since the end of the 1997 season, when they finished 78-84. The Sox followed that campaign by trading for Pedro Martinez, whose arrival altered Red Sox history.

2:43 In hours and minutes, time of last night's game. Already this season, the Sox have played four games in under three hours, leaving their average time of game at slightly more than 2 hours 59 minutes.

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- First it was a home series against the reigning American League champions. Then it was a road series against a club that won 100 regular-season games last year.

One week into the 2009 baseball season, doesn't it seem as if the games have been unusually intense?

"I think they have," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said following a 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday at Angel Stadium. "We've played two really good teams."

So now it's on to Oakland.

And, perhaps, to some answers.

Roughly six months after losing in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, we find the Red Sox exactly where we left them. Dating back to last October, the Sox have played their last 17 games against the Tampa Bay Rays and Angels. Over the winter, the Sox made no major changes to their everyday lineup. The competition with the Rays and Angels is as tight now as it was last fall, the Week 1 outcomes looking like the set scores (in progress or otherwise) from the final weekend at Wimbledon: 5-3, 2-7, 3-4, 3-6, 5-4, 4-5.

You want to talk parallels? Last October, in 11 games against the Rays and Angels, the Sox went 6-5 while batting .240 and averaging 4.2 runs per game. This spring, in six games against the same teams, the Sox went 2-4 and batted .240 while averaging 3.7 runs per contest. That leaves Boston's overall record at 8-9 against two of the best teams in the league, which is pretty much what you'd expect when elite teams play each other.

"You're going to have to face them at some point. Why not start out with 'em?" Kevin Youkilis said when asked if it felt as if the Sox have hit the ground sprinting. "It's so early in the season. We're six games in. We haven't even played a week of baseball yet. We're not playing the best baseball we can play, but it's early. We're a team, once we get rolling and score runs, we'll do some damage."

Which brings us to the coming week.

Be it the result of injury, age, or inconsistency, we all know the questions that face the Red Sox this season. David Ortiz is 4 for 20. Youkilis has as many hits (12) as Jacoby Ellsbury (5 for 24), Mike Lowell (4 for 23), J.D. Drew (2 for 16), and Jed Lowrie (1 for 18) combined. Daisuke Matsuzaka's inability to get through the sixth inning on Thursday left Francona somewhat shorthanded in his bullpen on Friday.

But in retrospect, given the quality of the competition, it's difficult -- if not impossible -- to make any definitive judgments on what the Red Sox can or cannot do, whom they can or cannot beat.

Starting tonight, the Sox will play their next seven contests against the Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles, clubs that went a combined 36 games under .500 last season. In theory, both the A's and Orioles are inferior opponents. Oakland has improved its offense with the addition of Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Holliday, but the Oakland pitching staff is young and inexperienced.

As for the Orioles, their pitching staff again projects to be one of the worst in the league. The series against Baltimore will be played at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox have posted the best home record in baseball since Theo Epstein became general manager during the 2002-03 offseason. Logic suggests the Sox will start scoring runs now that they have escaped Rays and Angels staffs that will likely be ranked among the best in the league at the end of the year.

If the Sox don't hit this week, then we'll have much greater cause for concern.

As we all have learned in recent years -- thanks in part to "Moneyball" -- successful baseball teams in this day and age are built with the long haul in mind. Over 162 games, clubs the Red Sox are likely to break even against the good teams and annihilate the bad ones. A's general manager Billy Beane has himself called the postseason a crap shoot. The idea is to amass enough talent to produce wins over a large sample, refraining from making the "snapshot evaluations" that Epstein effectively resists.

Last week, against the Rays and Angels, the Red Sox had a reasonable chance to win most every game. The depth of their pitching staff should give them that opportunity on a regular basis. During the regular season, at least, the Sox' success this season is likely to be decided by how their offense performs against some of the average to below-average pitching staffs in the league.

The Sox no longer have the offense juggernaut they boasted from 2003-2008. But starting soon, perhaps tonight, the Red Sox should start to hit.

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- On an eventful day featuring Brad Penny’s first pitch and Howie Kendrick’s last at-bat, Jason Bay’s juggling skills and Jonathan Papelbon’s tightrope act, Ramon Ramirez all but vanished. He entered quickly and left quietly, reveling in the relatively modest and anonymous life of a middle man.

"We always joke that all he wants to do is work out, eat when it’s time to eat, and then throw the [heck] out of the baseball,’’ Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis said of Ramirez following the Red Sox’ pulsating 5-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels today at Angel Stadium. "He’ll probably be here for a long time if he keeps throwing the ball well, just because of his attitude and the way he goes about his business.’’

On the mound and off.

For the moment, the Red Sox are interested in results far more than anything else. Five games in, the 2009 season already is starting to feel like a grind. The Red Sox now have bookended victories of 5-3 and 5-4 to go around losses of 7-2, 4-3 and 6-3, producing an average of fewer than four runs per game and putting additional pressure on a pitching staff expected to carry more of the burden than in years past.

The good news? The man who would be Coco Crisp is off to a fabulous start, pitching 1 2/3 scoreless innings today to provide the invaluable bridge between Penny and Papelbon. In Game 5 of the regular season, you simply cannot say enough about what Ramirez did for the Red Sox. With Justin Masterson unavailable and with the Red Sox potentially facing a bitter 1-4 start, manager Terry Francona summoned Ramirez for the start of the seventh inning after the Red Sox had taken a 4-3 lead. It marked the first time in three appearances this year that Francona allowed Ramirez to pitch with what the manager likes to call "responsibility.’’

The Red Sox bullpen appears to be a deep and talented lot this season, but at this stage, we all know how Francona generally handles his relief corps. There are pitchers to whom he will entrust a lead, others to whom he will not. Righthanded or lefthanded, you have to earn the right to pitch with the game on the line. Ramirez now has made three official appearances since the offseason trade that brought him from Kansas City for Crisp, and the results speak for themselves.

So far, opponents are 1 for 13 against him with three strikeouts and no walks. Already, with each passing day, Ramirez’s stock appears to be rising.

"Tremendous,’’ Francona said quite succinctly when asked to assess Ramirez's performance in the win over the Angels.

Entering this spring, the Red Sox had high hopes for Ramirez, despite some indication that he came with certain limitations. Last season, Ramirez held righthanded batters to a microscopic .153 average, but lefthanders hit an even .300 against him. The Red Sox saw those numbers as somewhat misleading, largely because they felt Ramirez had the necessary ammunition (specifically, a killer changeup) to consistently deal with lefties.

Fittingly, Ramirez’s changeup is subtle, at least in comparison to his fastball, which hovers near 91-92 miles per hour. Though Ramirez’s change seems to hit the plate at a robust 87-88 mph -- a relatively minimal contrast to his fastball -- hitters are consistently confounded by it, in part because he sells it with fastball arm action, in part because it has late movement and depth.

Whatever the explanation, the pitch works. And Francona, as much as catcher Jason Varitek or Ramirez himself, is developing great confidence in it.

As proof, Francona today allowed Ramirez to face the lefthanded-hitting Bobby Abreu with one out and the bases empty in the eighth despite the fact that lefthander Hideki Okajima was up and ready in the bullpen. The manager was rewarded with a 3-4-1 groundout that required the effort of three players -- Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Ramirez -- to record what Francona believed was one of the biggest outs of the game.

Ranging to his right, a diving Youkilis knocked the ball down. A heady Pedroia then picked it up and whipped it to Ramirez, who did exactly what he was supposed to do and resisted giving up on the play.

Abreu was out by a fraction of a step.

"If anybody’s one step late, they’ve got a guy on and here we go,’’ Francona said.

Added the manager of his decision to stick with Ramirez against Abreu, "He was throwing the ball very well. The only time I ever think it’s an advantage with Bobby [to bring in a lefty] is if it’s a lefty he hasn’t seen before. I think I know that just from having [managed] him [in Philadelphia]. I just thought that Ramon was throwing well and we knew were going to go with [Papelbon] anyway, so rather than burn two pitchers [including Okajima] we’d just burn one.’’

Consequently, with two now out, Francona summoned closer Papelbon, who retired Vladimir Guerrero on two pitches to conclude the eighth before a ninth inning that was nothing short of, well, hellacious. Papelbon threw 37 pitches in the final frame, walking two in an inning for the first time since the end of the 2007 season. (He walked just seven batters all of last year.) Nonetheless, the Red Sox escaped with a one-run victory that earned the closer his second save and Penny his first career American League win.

By then, Ramirez was gone from a game in which he played a critical role. Shortly thereafter, he similarly slipped out a back door of the clubhouse unnoticed, executing an appropriate escape for someone who pitches in the middle of the game.

"He’s a real quiet kid and he likes to compete,’’ Francona said of Ramirez, 27. "He likes to pitch every day -- and he’s not going to pitch every day -- but I think you’re seen what he can do for us the last few days. He can pitch.’’

And, apparently, he can pitch with responsibility.

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- There was never any question about the Red Sox and their ability to hit. What there was, quite simply, was a question about their ability to hit good pitching.

And there still is.

Shackled by the Tampa Bay Rays in their season-opening three-game series at Fenway Park, the Red Sox opened their 2009 road schedule last night with a 6-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. So far this season, the Sox have scored a mere 13 runs in four games while batting a collective .235 with an OPS of .694. In the last three games, all losses, the Sox have batted .220 and scored eight runs.

Cause for concern or early-season aberration?

"This is four games. This is 1/40th of the schedule,’’ said first baseman Kevin Youkilis. "We’re going to have a [rough] spell. We’re not worried about it. I know a lot of people [in New England] might be worried about it, but we’re not worried. We’re going to hit.’’

Easy for him to say.

He’s batting .625.

As for the Red Sox collectively, they are hitting ... not so much. As was the case last October, in particular, the lineup already is beginning to look suspiciously thin, even as the Sox get productive at-bats from their catcher. J.D. Drew is 1 for 11. Jed Lowrie is 1 for 15 with seven strikeouts. David Ortiz is batting .167 with zero extra-base hits. At this stage of the season, one productive game can erase those numbers and replace them with far more encouraging ones, but this is not solely about the results.

With a few exceptions, the Red Sox have looked defensive at the plate. Ortiz in particular still looks like he is cheating to catch up to the fastball, which is why opponents are continuing neutralize him with off-speed pitches that leave him off-balance and disarmed.

In the Red Sox’ defense, they have had three consecutive well-pitched games against them – or at least two-and-a-half. Beginning with the latter stages of Tampa lefty Scott Kazmir’s outing against them on Wednesday, the Sox have encountered starters who have been able to spot their fastball and throw off-speed pitches even when behind in the count. Nobody was a better example than last night’s Angels starter, righthander Jered Weaver, who repeatedly hit the corners with his fastball and then mystified the Sox with his changeup.

Weaver’s changeup was particularly effective against righthanded batters, an approach that is somewhat unconventional. (Most righthanders who throw a changeup use it largely to fade the ball away from lefthanded batters.) Sox left fielder Jason Bay admitted he was somewhat caught off guard by Weaver’s approach, though Bay had faced Weaver in just one previous career plate appearance, that coming in the extra innings of Game 3 of last year’s American League Division Series.

"It was more fastball-slider,’’ Bay, a righthanded batter, said when asked what he expected to see from Weaver. "That [changeup] seemed to be the pitch that was working for him.’’

Said Sox manager Terry Francona, addressing the last three games overall, "Weaver pitched well [last night]. He threw all of his pitches in a lot of fastball counts ... That’s what I’ve seen in [the last] three games -- pitchers are throwing off-speed pitches in fastball counts and we’re still swinging at fastballs.’’

That last statement should not be interpreted as criticism of the Red Sox’ offensive approach. Rather, it is an indication that the Red Sox have run into some good pitchers operating with good command, especially for this early in the season. Kazmir and teammate Matt Garza similarly mixed things up against the Sox, going six and seven innings, respectively. In the last three games, the opposing starter has traveled deeper into the game than the Red Sox starter -- this is called getting outpitched -- which is to be expected when Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka throw a combined 194 pitches to basically get through 10 innings.

This brings us back to the Red Sox lineup and the question of whether it provides the same kind of challenge for opposing pitchers. Last postseason, against these same Tampa and Los Angeles staffs, the Sox batted .240 and scored 46 runs in 11 games. Compare that with, say, the 2007 postseason, when the Sox hit .318 in the AL Championship Series and scored 51 runs (in seven games), or the 2007 ALDS, when the Sox hit .269 (with a .369 on-base percentage and .864 OPS) while scoring 19 runs in three games.

Where once opposing pitchers delicately tried to maneuver through the Boston lineup as if it were a minefield, they are now striding far more confidently.

Even during the regular season, if anyone cared to notice, the Red Sox lineup showed some vulnerability. Though the Sox scored a whopping 170 runs in going 18-9 during August immediately after they traded You Know Who, 56 of those runs came in six games against Texas and Baltimore, the two worst pitching staffs in the league. When the schedule got a little tougher in September, the Sox’ output dropped by more than a full run per game. Then came October.

Again, in retrospect, we recognized all of this way back then. So did the Red Sox. That is a big reason general manager Theo Epstein was willing to throw $170 million at Mark Teixeira for the purposes of fortifying the middle of the Boston lineup. It is also why Plan B centered on building the deepest pitching staff in baseball in front of an excellent defense, which made perfect sense. If the Red Sox weren’t going to score as much, they needed to give up less, which is like weather-stripping your home because of escalating oil prices.

It’s a way to get a little more out of what you already have.

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- Even in the early stages of this 2009 season, there is no rest for the weary. Having opened the season against a Tampa Bay team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, the Red Sox will now face the Los Angeles Angels, their Division Series opponent last fall. It's as if the Sox are retracing their steps backward into October 2008.

And so, in that sense, the journey now begins in earnest.

Understandably, the Angels have far greater concerns at the moment, less than 48 hours removed from the accident that took the life of promising 22-year-old pitcher Nick Adenhart. Even in the major leagues, life has a knack for getting in the way like that. Adenhart’s tragic death will continue to be a primary topic right up to the first pitch of this weekend’s three-game set, during which we all will be reminded that life invariably goes on without us, that the machine always keeps running. No matter who is pitching, catching, hitting, fielding, managing, coaching, watching, writing, or reading.

"It’s a tragedy that won’t be forgotten,’’ Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters yesterday after it was learned that Adenhart was the victim of a hit-and-run accident involving an alleged drunk driver. "We’ll deal with this the best we can and help his family get through this.’’

The baseball? There is really no telling what we are going to get this weekend, particularly from the Angels, who are, at the moment, significantly altered from the team that faced the Red Sox in the ALDS last October. Slugger Mark Teixeira is gone. Starters John Lackey and Ervin Santana are on the disabled list. Bobby Abreu has displaced Garret Anderson in left field and Brian Fuentes has assumed Francisco Rodriguez’s role as closer. That was all true before the Adenhart accident, meaning the Angels were in a somewhat transitional state to begin with.

Still, there is a chance that getting back on the field following last night’s respectful postponement will help the Angels more than it will hurt. For all of the talk about distractions in sports, the playing field is frequently the one place athletes can find solitude. Reality only resumes the moment they step back over the foul lines, something we all learned from Archie (Moonlight) Graham.

In recent years, more than any other team outside of the American League East, the Angels have become a rival to the Red Sox, having faced them in three Division Series matchups over the last five years. The Red Sox have won all three series, winning 9 of 10 games overall. In total runs, the Sox hold an absurd 62-29 edge. The Angels simply have had no answer for the Sox in games with the greatest consequences, contests that have been as much a competition in philosophy as execution.

Entering this season, however, the Red Sox and Angels look more alike than perhaps ever before. Last October, though the Sox won the ALDS in four games, the margin in total runs favored Boston by a far more reasonable 18-13 margin. The final two contests, both played at Fenway Park, were one-run affairs. Though there are still notable differences between the clubs, the Red Sox and Angels are built more on pitching, speed, and defense than they are on power, suggesting this weekend’s games could be decided in the late innings against what look to be a pair of deep bullpens.

On paper, the Red Sox and Angels had strikingly similar season-opening series, the Angels dropping 2 of 3 at home to the Oakland A’s while the Sox lost 2 of 3 at home to the Rays. Boston scored 10 runs in the three games while the Angels scored 11. Both Scioscia and Red Sox manager Terry Francona will pitch, in order, their Nos. 4, 5, and 1 starters over the weekend, though it should be stressed again that the Angels are operating with Lackey and Santana, projected as their top two pitchers entering the season, on the disabled list.

As for what happens in the long term, the Red Sox and Angels will approach things, appropriately, from entirely different directions. In the AL West, the Angels play in what may be the least-competitive division in baseball. In the AL East, the Red Sox reside in the most competitive. If the Angels somehow fail to qualify for the playoffs, it will likely be the result of injury or ineptitude. If the Red Sox fail, it may be through no fault of their own, but because there were one or two excellent teams that were better than them.

Starting tonight, we will begin to get some assessment of how the Sox and Angels match up with one another. As recent history has taught us, they will need no introductions should they meet again in October.

The tendency now is to look for indicators, potential signs of trouble or hints of positive long-term developments. But before we read too much into anything in these newborn stages of the 2009 baseball season, the simple truth is that we will need more time to make any assessment at all of the Red Sox.

In the interim, the Sox have a game scheduled against the Tampa Bay Rays today at Fenway Park, where the teams will decide the winner of this season-opening three-game series. Red Sox righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka will oppose Rays righthander Matt Garza, who completely stifled the Sox in Game 7 of last year's American League Championship Series. To lose 2 of 3 at home would be a disappointing way to start for the Sox, who have the best home record in baseball since the start of the 2003 season that marked the dawn of the Theo Epstein Era.

And so, as the Sox take the field this afternoon before embarking on a six-game West Coast trip to Anaheim (the Angels) and Oakland (the A's), we begin by wondering ...

• Will this be the same team at Fenway that we have come to expect? From 2003-2008, the Red Sox went 317-169 at Fenway, a winning percentage of .652 that translates into an annual home record of 53-28. During that span, the Red Sox have averaged 5.9 runs per game at home. This Sox club seems to be built more on its pitching and defense than an awe-inspiring lineup, which can't help but make one wonder about the effect on the Sox' home-road performance.

  Given some of the injuries and issues the Red Sox encountered at some key offensive positions last year, recent track record obviously means more than the events of, say, 2003 and 2004. Nonetheless, consider this: From 2003-08, David Ortiz was a .322 hitter who slugged .613 at Fenway Park, a .272 hitter with a .583 slugging percentage on the road. Last year, the numbers were far more pronounced. Ortiz batted .295 with a .570 OPS at Fenway, .236 with a .449 OPS on the road, though he went 3 for 20 at home during the postseason.

  Admittedly, Ortiz is an extreme case and it is worth noting, too, that Red Sox pitchers actually performed better at home than they did on the road, which seems to fly in the face of the logic that Fenway always benefits the hitter. What it does suggest, however, is that pitching with a lead is far easier than any other alternative, only fortifying the notion that the team to score first in baseball usually wins.

  So far, in the Sox' first two games of the season, the team to score first has won both games. This seems to accentuate the need for the Sox to get off to fast starts given a lineup that may not possess the same firepower of years past. Which brings us to ...

• Jacoby Ellsbury and his 1-for-9 performance in the first two games. Nobody is suggesting this is cause for alarm. Ellsbury swung the bat much batter last night than he did on Opening Day, though his only hit thus far is an infield bouncer he beat out. On Monday, he didn't get the ball out of the infield.

  During his weekly radio appearance on WEEI on Wednesday, Sox manager Terry Francona made a passing reference to Ellsbury's need "to learn the strike zone," something that doesn't mean Ellsbury merely has to walk more. It also means Ellsbury has to learn to swing at good strikes rather than bad ones. Ellsbury's best chance to get on base consistently is to hit the ball to the opposite field, which is his strength. That is why pitchers frequently try to pound him inside.

  Until or unless Ellsbury can handle the inside pitch -- by putting it play or by letting it go by -- we are likely to see some inconsistency from the only man on the Red Sox who has game-changing speed. But then, that is why ...

• ... consistent players like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis mean so much to a lineup. For that matter, we might want to add in Jason Bay, too. In the first two games, those three hitters are 9 for 22, a .409 average, with five runs scored and four RBIs. The other six spots are a combined 8 for 44, an average of .182. The latter is somewhat deceiving because Jason Varitek is just 1 for 8 despite a succession of good at-bats over the first two games, but Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay are the three offensive players who entered the season without questions built around inconsistency or injury.

  Along with Ellsbury and Ortiz, shortstop Jed Lowrie has looked a little off at the plate in the first two games. Lowrie is just 1 for 7 with four strikeouts, and he whiffed in a key at-bat with the bases loaded in the seventh inning last night. Just prior to the at-bat, Tampa manager Joe Maddon brought in righthander Grant Balfour to replace the lefthanded J.P. Howell, forcing Lowrie to bat left instead of right. He is a better hitter with more power from the right side.

  Despite Maddon's maneuver, Francona let Lowrie bat instead of, say, employing Chris Carter or J.D. Drew as a pinch hitter. The reason?

  "Lowrie's been probably our best hitter [during the spring]," Francona said, shaking his head.

  "Not in the second game of the season," he added.

• Lest there be any doubt, this is completely consistent with Francona's approach during his five-plus seasons in Boston. Last year, the Red Sox had fewer at-bats from their pinch hitters than any team in the American League. Francona generally believes in building a baseline and trusting his regulars, something that frequently pays off later in the year. If, by then, there is reason to hit, Francona is more likely to do so, as he did for Varitek during the playoffs.

For the last several years, offense generally has ruled in Boston. The Red Sox sought to make opposing pitchers work. They talked about keeping the line moving. They strove to apply constant pressure until the opposition cracked.

Now, in 2009, it seems as if the pitching staff has inherited that philosophy.

Against the Red Sox this year, every at-bat will be sacred.

"I think that everybody we put on the mound has a chance to make the [hitter] very uncomfortable," Josh Beckett said Tuesday following the Sox' 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Opening Day at Fenway Park. "I've been on staffs before that were similar -- maybe not top to bottom the way our bullpen is stacked -- but I think maybe early in my career we were uncomfortable [to face] because we were just a bunch of hard-throwing guys who didn't know where [the ball] was going."

And now? The Red Sox aren't so wild, though they finished fifth in the majors in hit batsmen a year ago, which speaks to their insistence on controlling the inner half of home plate. That comes with the territory. What they are now is an assembly line of pitchers, one as effective as the next, who pass off the ball as if it were a baton in a world-class relay race.

Keep the line moving.

Really, where are opponents going to get a break here? As poorly as Hideki Okajima pitched in the eighth inning -- one walk, one hit batsman, two runs in three batters faced -- Tampa still went 3 for 29 in the game, a .103 average. The Rays finished with an on-base percentage of .228. Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek had 15 putouts -- 14 on strikeouts, one on a foul pop -- which was three more than the rest of the Red Sox fielders combined (12).

Whether days like this prove to be the standard is impossible to predict, but this much we know: the Red Sox won't be giving away many runs this year. Their pitching is too deep and their defense is too good. That could be particularly true in April, the coldest month of the regular season, when pitchers typically dominate and scoring is usually down.

On second thought, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea to open here, in Boston, during the cold, wet days of spring.

As much as Beckett dominated this game -- and he did -- Sox manager Terry Francona had his pitching lined up precisely as most expected him to. In the sixth, when Beckett got into trouble, righthanded specialist Ramon Ramirez and lefthanded specialist Javier Lopez were warming for a potential key at-bat. In the seventh, Okajima got up. Justin Masterson might have started the eighth under certain circumstances, but the Rays had lefthanded batters Akinori Iwamura and Carl Crawford scheduled to bat second and third in the inning, so Francona went with the lefty.

Despite Okajima's difficulties -- he struck out Crawford on his final pitch -- Francona had all the matchups he wanted. (Note to those wondering why Francona has J.D. Drew batting fifth: The lefty-lefty-lefty combination at the top of the Tampa lineup allowed Francona to keep Okajima in the game when he otherwise might not have. Drew's lefthanded bat allows the Sox to avoid a potential righty-righty-righty stretch in the lineup.)

"They had righty, lefty, lefty," Francona said of his decision to let Okajima start the eighth. "Oki, when he's OK, he can get both."

And when the Rays reached the righthanded-hitting Evan Longoria, Francona summoned righthander Masterson, who powered his way out of the inning. Masterson then handed the ball off to closer Jonathan Papelbon, who blew away the Rays in a 1-2-3 ninth that featured two more strikeouts.

And when the dust settled, Francona still had bullets in the form of Manny Delcarmen and Takashi Saito, the only two Boston relievers who did not warm up.

Entering this season, we all knew the Red Sox had a deep pitching staff. What we didn't know for sure is how Francona intended to employ his bullpen, something we will only learn over time. As the season progresses, there are likely to be few (if any) occasions when all seven Boston relievers are firing on all cylinders, when the starters are all going six innings. But the beauty of this Boston staff is that Francona will not need all of his starters or all of his relievers at any given time because he might always have the option of letting two men sit.

"It was a good day," said the Red Sox manager. "We'll come right back tomorrow and see if we can [win] another one."

Their chances seem good.

Against the Red Sox this year, there will be no easy at-bats.

Josh Beckett's spring has been conducted in uncharacteristic silence, the kind of calm we are not accustomed to observing. From Roger Clemens to Pedro Martinez to Curt Schilling, there always has been a stir surrounding the ace of the Boston Red Sox. With Beckett, excepting the buzz of game day, there is none.

And so, as Beckett takes the mound this afternoon on Opening Day, he will be kicking off a season in which his Red Sox legacy may be at stake.

Renowned as a consummate big-game pitcher, fierce competitor, and dedicated worker, Beckett begins this 2009 season with a record of 48-28 during his time in Boston, sporting precisely the same record as CC Sabathia over the last three years. In the entire major leagues, only Brandon Webb (52 wins), Roy Halladay (52), and Johan Santana (50) have more victories during that span. Beckett has two World Series championships under his belt -- more than all of those other pitchers combined -- and yet there is some question as to how he will be remembered in Boston, even though his 2007 postseason will go down as one of the greatest October performances in baseball history.

During his three years in Boston, Beckett has had one below average season (2006), one sensational one (2007), and one that ultimately proved mediocre (2008), be it the result of injury or anything else. No one should ever regret the trade that brought Beckett and Mike Lowell here for the supremely gifted Hanley Ramirez. But Beckett's contract could expire at the end of this season, the Red Sox holding a $12 million option for 2010.

Presumably, Beckett will back next year, especially when considering that his 2010 salary will be roughly half of what the Yankees will pay Sabathia ($23 million). But whether it is over the next year or two, what Beckett accomplishes (or does not) may determine how he is remembered here and, perhaps, everywhere else.

"I'm enthusiastic about it," Beckett said last week of the 2009 campaign following his final start of the spring. "I've just got to go out there and have the results that lead to success."

Beckett is a bottom-line guy. There's no nonsense. He believes in winning first, everything else second. If he wins 6-5, Beckett will tell you his offense bailed him out. If he wins 1-0, he'll tell you that is what he is paid to do.

Once the postgame press conference ends, Beckett will all but vanish for four days, resurfacing only for that day on which he is asked to take the ball and his team's fortunes into his hands.

Clemens was a giant personality here. So was Martinez. Likewise for Schilling. All three of those men talked a good game. By contrast, Beckett frequently comes off as standoffish, disinterested, even rude. Talking just really isn't his thing. On the days Beckett pitches, he is uncommonly self-critical, and that is all a very measured attempt on his part to keep himself in check, to remain part of the team. He believes in the group and he accepts his responsibility to lead, and he has never once passed off that burden.

Even last year, when he probably should not have been on the mound for the postseason, Beckett took the ball because he felt he owed it to the team to at least try. That is the one thing all recent Sox aces have shared, from Clemens to Martinez to Schilling. And when the results weren't there -- even after the Sox were eliminated from the playoffs -- Beckett declined to discuss injuries we all knew were affecting him because he believed it would come off as excuse-making.

Even then, here's an interesting fact that was overlooked: Beckett wasn't charged with a loss in a playoff game. In his Red Sox postseason career, he is a perfect 5-0. Beckett will be the first to tell you that he is paid to win games -- and not to avoid losing them -- but the reality is that he pitched just well enough to give the Red Sox a chance, his three postseason starts producing losses of 5-4 and 9-8 to go along with a 4-2 victory, the last coming in a Game 6 ALCS performance that might as well have been accomplished with a top hat and wand.

This spring, when asked how injuries affected him last fall, Beckett would say only that he didn't have the same "explosiveness," the first time since last October that he even acknowledged he was operating without a full arsenal.

For now, comparing Beckett to Clemens, Martinez, or Schilling is a difficult exercise, if only for the fact that Beckett is still so young. He will turn 29 on May 15. And yet, at this stage of their careers, Clemens and Martinez were each en route to a third Cy Young Award while having compiled in excess of 100 career wins, leaving Beckett with the upper hand only on late-bloomer Schilling. Beckett's body of work is far from complete, obviously, though he is well behind the curve of two relative contemporaries who are among the premier pitchers in baseball history.

Today, weather again permitting, Beckett will begin his fourth season in Boston off of what was a strong, productive spring. He made every turn. He did not have even a slight setback. He starts the regular season with something to prove and with much of his career still in front of him, and he possesses all of the necessary elements to take his place among the greats.

As Beckett said himself, now he needs the results.

We’ve compared their lineups and rotations, bullpens and defense. But as the Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees begin competing for what will be the most hotly contested division in baseball, maybe we have overlooked a variable that could prove decisive: The managers.

Having led the Red Sox to four playoff appearances and two world titles during his time in Boston, Terry Francona will begin his sixth season when the Sox and Rays open the 2009 campaign here this week. Across the diamond from him will be Tampa skipper Joe Maddon, the reigning American League Manager of the Year. Boston and Tampa appear to be well managed as the season begins, which leads us to Joe Girardi, the wild-card manager of the New York Yankees.

Depending on what happens this summer, Girardi could be a leading candidate for AL Manager of the Year … or he could be the first manager fired. There is simply no way to know which way things will break. The Rays and Red Sox seem to have stability in the clubhouse corner office, while the Yankees have what may be the single greatest variable in the division.

"Obviously, you still have to have some personnel. It’s about wins and losses," Sox left fielder Jason Bay said today at Fenway Park when asked a general question about whether a manager can impact the outcome on the field. "But somebody has to bring that together."

In Boston, that’s Francona. In Tampa, that’s Maddon.

In New York, that is a great unknown.

We all know what Francona has meant to the Red Sox. For all of the second-guessing that comes with the title or Red Sox manager -- win or lose -- Francona has had a phenomenal run. During Francona’s five-year tenure, the Red Sox have won more games (regular season and postseason) than any other team in baseball. The clubhouse generally has remained free of chaos. The Sox have won and conducted their business in a professional manner, and Francona rarely (if ever) has gotten in the way of his talent.

When Francona was hired more than five years ago, he was one of four candidates interviewed to succeed the deposed Grady Little. Along with Glenn Hoffman and DeMarlo Hale, Maddon was one of the other three. Sox officials liked Maddon and regarded him as a progressive thinker, but they ultimately chose Francona because, in part, he had a big league pedigree that would carry more weight in a veteran clubhouse.

Two years later the Rays hired Maddon, whose club defeated the Sox in seven games in last year’s ALCS. Part free spirit and part intellectual, Maddon rides his bike to the ballpark and backpacked around Europe during his honeymoon following last fall’s loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. He is more like former Sox skipper Joe Morgan than former Yanks manager Joe Torre, unafraid to play hunches or choose the unconventional route that could blow up in his face.

During last year's ALCS, Maddon drew great criticism for pushing back ace James Shields from Game 5 to Game 6, something most everyone quickly forgot when starters Scott Kazmir (Game 5) and Shields posted a combined 2.31 ERA before Matt Garza pitched a brilliant Game 7.

"Different styles, obviously," said Tim Bogar, the new Sox first base coach who worked on Maddon’s staff last year. "Joe’s a very forward type of thinker, very open to suggestions. That’s his forte, I’d say. Terry is more of a very traditional baseball guy, very intelligent, sees the game well."

Which is better? That is nearly impossible to say. At the end of the day, each man is right for his team. With a bankrolled Red Sox team behind him in a baseball-crazy market, Francona frequently encounters problems that Maddon never has to deal with. What Maddon gains in that area he may lose on the field, where the Rays have a payroll that is roughly one-third of Boston’s and closer to one-fifth of New York’s.

This brings us back to Girardi, Torre’s successor in New York and a man who suddenly has a great deal to answer for. After missing the playoffs last season for the first time since the historic work stoppage that erased the 1994 postseason, the Yankees spent a truckload of money over the winter. They are moving into a new stadium. They are expected to win this year, despite the season-opening injury to Alex Rodriguez, and there are major questions about Girardi’s ability to lead a club with such great expectations.

Slightly more than two years ago, despite being named National League Manager of the Year with the Florida Marlins, Girardi was fired after a rather public spat with owner Jeffrey Loria. Last year, his first with New York, could hardly be categorized as smooth. Now the Yankees are entering a season after improving their pitching, offense, and defense, leaving them with one enormous question as the games begin for real.

In the now ironclad American League East, how does their manager rate?

By many accounts, the three best teams in baseball this season all may reside in the American League East. The Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees may be so evenly matched that a mere two or three games could separate them in the end. At least one of those teams will fail to qualify for the postseason, the baseball equivalent of, say, an NFL club going 11-5 and missing the playoffs.

Here in Boston, the start of every baseball season is regarded as a virtual rite of passage. There is simply no better place to write about, talk about and debate sports. And if that means invoking the wrath of the natives every now and then, well, so be it.

Here in this mailbag, we take the bad with the good. The following comments were posted in response to this AL East breakdown story (in which I predicted the Rays to win the East and the Sox to get the wild card), along with some responses of my own.

Neil: Scary thing is, you said the Rays were healthy last year when in fact they were very hampered by injuries. Scott Kazmir (their presumptive ace heading into the season) and Troy Percival (closer) each missed significant time. Plus, offensively their four best players (Crawford, Longoria, Pena, and Upton) averaged just 128 games played between the four of them and Upton even when he played battled a shoulder injury. The Rays are being sold way short. Yes, I know you say they can win the division this year but they have the potential to be a 100+ win team. Find me another team in baseball with a mix of youth, talent, and balance like the Rays? You can't. This team could be scary good.

Mazz: Neil, I agree. When I said that the Rays were healthy, I guess I was referring primarily to their starting rotation. Last season, Shields, Garza, Kazmir, Jackson and Sonnanstine made 153 starts combined. That is similar to the 2004 Red Sox, who won the World Series in part because their pitchers remained tremendously healthy. Admittedly, Kazmir has had some injury history, but he made 27 starts last season despite missing the entire month of April. Once he came back, the Rays essentially didn’t miss a turn all year.

Will that happen again? Probably not? But overall, Tampa’s starters are younger than those in Boston or New York -- and we haven’t even mentioned David Price yet.

Ldog: Luckily, Tony Mazz is a moron. The Yankees have better starting pitching? That's a joke right? That's the Sox STRENGTH. The Rays will sophomore slump, but still take the wildcard. Sox win 98 games and win the division, Yankees are odd team out.

Mazz: Ldog, I tried to stress that I thought all three staffs were superb and that the margin between them was slight. (In ranking the teams, I tried to avoid picking ties, which would have been the easy way out.) I would agree that the Red Sox are deepest and the Rays are youngest, which makes both of those clubs more likely to endure injury. But if the Yankees starting five remains healthy -- and again, that’s a big if -- Joba Chamberlain looks like one heck of a No. 5 starter.

Fitz: Interesting prediction, written by a complete moron. I "predict" that you will be covering high school girls softball by the end of the season...

Mazz: Been there, done that. I suppose there is the very real possibility I could be back there again. Why do people here get so angry when someone picks the Red Sox to be a playoff team?

Jo: Mazz, you're an idiot. The Yankees have the worst pitching staff of all three teams. Sabathia stinks in the postseason, Burnett is injury prone, Wang is still a question mark, and Pettitte is old. Also, the Rays haven't added enough to their lineup to put them ahead of Boston and New York.

Mazz: Jo, you might be right about the Yankees being the "worst" of the three teams in the AL, but by what margin? Again, these three clubs all look pretty even. Any one is capable of winning 100 games if things go right. If we wanted to be equally as critical of the Sox, couldn’t we say that Wakefield is old, Beckett is injury prone and Matsuzaka kills bullpens? By the way, Brad Penny’s ERA in the American League is 5.08.

Pete: Mazz is a complete moron. The Globe really needs to fire him. I mean his opinions are ridiculous. How does he put the Yankees offense third and the Rays first, then just the opposite with pitching? He clearly doesn't watch the same MLB the rest of us see. What a joke. Go back to the Herald please.

Mazz: Pete, thanks for the note. My personal belief is that younger players generally get better while older ones do not. It seems to me that Tampa still has major room for growth offensively. Meanwhile, despite a payroll in the range of $200 million, the Yankees have one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball. As for the Red Sox, the last two times they played a full season without Manny Ramirez, they finished in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.

Slow Puffs: Well, I enjoy Mazz's thoughts here. I don't enjoy the disrespectful name-calling. I think the East is going to be tight and the key will be whoever is the healthiest.

Mazz: Slow Puffs, thanks for the note. I agree that the AL East is going to be very tight. I suppose I could taken the easy out and picked a three-way tie, in all categories, but what good would that have done? In three of the four areas we tried to rate, the Sox, Rays and Yanks are extremely close. The one exception is defense, where I feel the Yankees are easily the worst of the three -- but only because Boston and Tampa Bay look like exceptional defensive clubs.

Gimli: Pictorially, your prediction doesn't pan out. The Sox have 2 first place votes and 2 second place votes. Tampa has 1 first place and 2 second place votes. How does that imply Tampa is a better team. Sorry Tony.

Mazz: Pictures can complicate the words sometimes, and it never occurred to me that people would look at this as a mathematical formula or like the MVP balloting -- 10 points for a first place vote, 9 for second, 8 for third, etc. This was not intended to be a computer program. The idea was to assess the teams in three different areas to provide some analysis of their strengths and weaknesses. But given the amount of complaints/comments we received about this particular aspect, I should have been clearer about that. Apologies for the confusion.

Anonymous: What??? MAZZ WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?? The Red Sox when low risk high reward?? Try High Risk High Reward. You could tell Mazz just wanted to write those words "low risk high rewards."

Mazz: With all due respect, I’m not sure I understand this comment. Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Mark Kotsay and Takashi Saito all were signed to one-year contracts. The three pitchers all had some injury history last year. If none of these players pan out, the Red Sox will have money to spend again in the offseason and will not hinder themselves at all in the long term.

By contrast, the Yankees spent nearly $500 million in long-term deals on A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. If any one of those players goes belly-up, New York will be hamstrung for years. To me, that constitutes high risk.

Brian: "While the Red Sox lineup essentially remains unchanged..."Well, except for losing a future HOFer in LF....oh, and they're no longer platooning in CF...oh, and the catcher position will be more of a revolving door...oh, and the SS situation still isn't resolved...other than all THAT, it's essentially unchanged.

Mazz: Brian, thanks for the note. I was implying that the starting lineup to begin this year essentially will be the same lineup -- personnel-wise -- that finished 2008, excluding injuries. The primary offensive personnel on this club hasn’t changed much. For that matter, the primary pitching personnel hasn’t changed much either. The only major changes were at No. 5 starter and, perhaps, in the bullpen. And I’m not sure those changes qualify as major.

T.Pitt: Interesting projections. As a virtually lifelong resident of the south, what is it in the New England (Red Sox fans') water that makes the persons writing into you the users of such boorish language and seeming inability to accept or use nuance when "discussing" an area obviously of much importance to them? I was a university and semi-pro player, but I'd never call someone a moron or idiot for projecting a sports result with which I did not happen to agree.

Mazz: T.Pitt, thanks for offering the rational perspective. Nonetheless, as I’ve said before, passion comes with the territory here. I wouldn’t want to work anywhere else, particularly when covering baseball. (OK, maybe New York.)

Greg: Mazz -- you write for the Globe in BOSTON. Stop being so literal with this stuff. You're not some investigative journalist or some war correspondent...You write for Red Sox fans, we have a great team, we're all out here rooting for the them, AND YOU PICK THE RAYS????? C'mon, man! John Henry is trying to sell tickets, bro! Just pick the Red Sox!!! The season hasn't even started and you're picking the Rays? …Just tell us the Red Sox are gonna win. That's what we want to hear. Why not? You write for the Red Sox.

Mazz: Greg, with all due respect, my job isn’t to tell you what you want to hear. My job is to tell you what I believe. If we all told one another solely what we wanted to hear, all creativity and independent thought would be squelched. We’d all be cookie-cutter robots. Was it really such a bad thing to suggest that the Red Sox will be in the playoffs again, but as the wild card?

Brian: "One of the key reasons the Red Sox and Yankees have dominated offensively over the last several years is the production they have received from, respectively, Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada." What?!?! This makes no sense. The Yanks and Sox have dominated offensively because they have had great hitters! Ortiz, Ramirez, Youk, Pedroia, ARod, Jeter, Abreu, Giambi were all great players. Posada is good, and Tek was solid, but those were hardly the reasons they dominated offensively.

Mazz: Brian, I did some research on this over the winter. Of the last 24 AL teams to make the playoffs, 18 had an OPS from the catcher position that ranked in the top half of the league. The 2008 Red Sox were one of the exceptions. In this league, having a productive offensive catcher does wonders for extending the lineup -- whether it’s Joe Mauer or Mike Napoli or Dioner Navarro or A.J. Pierzynski.

As for the Yankees, if Posada cannot catch 100 or so games, the Yankees will be relegated to employing him at DH, which means Jose Molina will have to catch. Their lineup will take a major hit. Is it really a coincidence that the New York offense struggled some last year for the first time in years after Posada went down?

Kevin: Wow, this is a little generous to the home town team. I know that you are ultimately writing for a base, but not taking into consideration the fact that the Yankees had by far the most extensive injuries of any team last year and combining their major additions, I find it difficult to believe that they would finish in the same position as last year. The Yanks have added another top tier bat and two top level arms to a team that was missing quite a bit of talent due to injury last year, it is insane to argue they remain unimproved.

Mazz: Kevin, no one said the Yankees were unimproved. I just worry about the age and health of Posada and Johnny Damon, not to mention the early-season injury to Alex Rodriguez, who may not be 100 percent all year. Believe me, we all understand the potential of the Yankees here. Teixeira will do wonders for their infield defense. If things go right, they could certainly win 100 games.

Jbzrck: Hey Mazz, How did Toronto work out for you last year??

Mazz: It was only a matter of time before someone brought this up. Not well, sir, not well.

John Pratt: Did any of you losers even read this article? Mazz's main contention is that the Red Sox (Lowell, Ortiz and to a lesser degree Beckett) and Yankees (Joba, Burnett, A-Rod) have serious questions regarding health while the younger, more athletic Rays have virtually no such concerns. That's the biggest reason he picked them to win the division.

Mazz: John, thanks for the note. Given the nature of the majority of responses, it seems that you’ve done a better job of explaining this than I did. But generally speaking, you’ve hit the nail on the head. What we have here is three very good teams all capable of winning the division. As such, I was left with the challenge of handicapping their chances to stay healthy. I picked the youngest team.

Radatz: I didn't know peyote grew in Boston, but Mazz leads me to believe otherwise. Let's face it: The AL East race will be essentially over with by the Fourth of July with the wild card probably coming from another division. There are just too many weaknesses on the infirmed Sox roster to win a postseason spot.

Mazz: Radatz, not sure I agree with this. In finishing third last season, the Yankees still had more wins than the second-place club from either the AL Central or AL West. Is there really a second-place team in the AL Central or AL West that can beat out TWO teams from the group of Boston, New York and Tampa? I seriously doubt it. If there were a way to pick the Sox, Rays and Yanks all to make the playoffs, I would have. But that would have required extreme editorial license.

As foolish as I may appear to be sometimes, even I wouldn’t do that.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees. Come the end of September, at least one of these teams will not belong.

Tony Massarotti ranks the Big Three AL East teams in four major categories, and makes a prediction on how they'll finish: Mazz's ranking 1st 2d 3d Hitting Defense Starting pitching Bullpen How they'll finish

And so as spring training draws to a close, let there be no doubt: the American League East is the best division in baseball. Boston, Tampa Bay, and New York won a combined 281 games last season, easily outdistancing the top three teams in any other division. The third-place Yankees won enough games to finish first in two other divisions -- the National League West and the AL Central -- and yet New York missed the playoffs for the first time since the infamous work stoppage that wiped out the conclusion of the 1994 season.

Over the winter, the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees all made changes and upgrades -- all via different means. Thwarted in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, the Red Sox went low-risk, high-reward. The Rays dabbled a little in the trade market, a little in free agency. The Yankees tossed around hundreds of millions of dollars as if they were the federal government.

Where will these teams end up in 2009? Time will tell. In the interim, here's a brief breakdown of all three clubs in the four fundamental areas of the game -- followed by a prediction.

HITTING
Last season, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays finished a respective second, seventh and ninth in the league in runs scored. While the Red Sox lineup essentially remains unchanged, Tampa has upgraded its two weakest areas -- right field (Matt Joyce) and designated hitter (Pat Burrell) -- while the Yankees signed Teixeira to a whopping eight-year, $180 million contract.

For all of the changes that took place in the American League last year, here was one of the most dramatic: the Red Sox and Yankees appeared to lose whatever offensive advantage they once had at catcher. One of the key reasons the Red Sox and Yankees have dominated offensively over the last several years is the production they have received from, respectively, Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada. Those players are now huge question marks entering 2009, and the truth is that Tampa has the best offensive catcher (Dioner Navarro) of the three teams.

The Rays are young. Red Sox and Yankees are both aging some, and the Red Sox have recent injury history at third base (Mike Lowell), right field (J.D. Drew) and designated hitter (David Ortiz). For a team with a payroll in the range of $200 million, the Yankees have a disturbingly weak offensive outfield and, lest we forget, an injured Alex Rodriguez. There are far more questions in Boston and New York than there are in Tampa, where the Rays may just be starting to blossom.

Offensive ranking: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees.

DEFENSE
Maybe it is merely a coincidence, but now that we are in the age of drug testing, defensive is becoming an emphasis again. One of the reasons the Red Sox were willing to offer Teixeira the biggest contract in club history was because of his defensive skill. As two-way players go, Teixeira is one of the more complete performers in the game.

Last season, defense in the AL East generally was exceptional. In order, based on fewest errors, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays finished first, second, third and fourth in the league. Sox officials, among others, will tell you that errors are an inaccurate way to measure defensive efficiency, but the point is that none of those clubs made a lot of mistakes.

As much as Theo Epstein has received credit for building offensive powerhouses during his tenure as Sox GM, his last three teams have finished in the top three in the league in defense. Depending on what happens at shortstop, that isn't likely to change in 2009. Tampa similarly has an average or above average defender at most every position on the diamond -- second base (Akinori Iwamura) and right field (Gabe Gross/Joyce) may be the exceptions -- but the Rays may have better range at the other positions than any team in baseball.

The Yankees? In their case, the numbers are a little deceiving. New York will have the speedy Brett Gardner in center to open the year, but the defense on the left side of the field -- shortstop (Derek Jeter), third base (Rodriguez) and left field (Johnny Damon) is now suspect. Range has given way to age. Again, New York has questions.

Defensive ranking: Red Sox, Rays, Yankees.

STARTING PITCHING
We'll never truly know what difference a healthy Josh Beckett might have made last season, but we can be certain of this: If Beckett repeats his numbers from last season (12-10, 4.03 ERA), the Red Sox could get run over. The rotations of the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees are positively stacked from top to bottom, and health may very well determine which team gets the most out of its starters.

In all of baseball, assuming health, the only team that might be able to match rotations with the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees this season is the Los Angeles Angels, who could have a group of John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Joe Saunders, and Jered Waever. (At the moment, though, the Angels are quite banged up.) Beyond that, the best rotations in baseball all are in the AL East, which should make for some riveting head-to-head competition.

For the Rays, the obvious variable here is David Price, the phenom who will begin the season at Triple-A but could eventually join a rotation that includes James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine. The Red Sox have added Brad Penny behind the foursome of Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox have depth behind those five, too, with John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Michael Bowden all available to make potential contributions.

Of the near half-billion dollars the Yankees spent on their roster over the winter, about $243 million was invested in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the new Nos. 1 and 2 starters. Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte return for the Nos. 3 and 4 spots and Joba Chamberlain is currently No. 5. If the Yankees stay healthy -- and, admittedly, that's a big if -- their rotation looks absolutely awesome.

Starting rotation ranking: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays (but it's close).

RELIEF PITCHING
Last year, based on both ERA and winning percentage, the Red Sox bullpen ranked behind both the Rays and Yankees. Of course, it improved tremendously once Justin Masterson joined the group, which makes the early-season numbers much less relevant.

Can you name the Yankees' set-up crew? Just because you aren't impressed by the likes of Brian Bruney (a 1.83 ERA last year) or Jose Veras (3.59), do not underestimate them. Also, keep an eye on 25-year-old lefthander Phil Coke, who had a strong spring (1.32 ERA) after posting a 0.61 ERA in 12 appearances last year. And please don't put much stock into the argument that Mariano Rivera is aging. Last season, at age 38, he had 77 strikeouts and six walks.

In Tampa, the big question concerns setup men J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour, who were positively brilliant last season. Can they do it again? For all of the talk about the closing situation, the Rays have a skilled manager (Joe Maddon) who can choose between Troy Percival, Jason Isringhausen (who will begin the season on the DL with an elbow injury) and even Dan Wheeler. Where Joe Girardi is a major variable with the Yankees -- why aren't more people talking about this? -- Maddon makes the Tampa bullpen better.

As for the Red Sox, Theo Epstein has added Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito to a group that pitched well in the final two months last year. Daniel Bard is on the way. Again, assuming health, the Red Sox have a lot of firepower and a lot of options, and they have a manager and pitching coach who know how to get the most out of their arms.

Bullpen ranking: Red Sox, Rays, Yankees (with the disclaimer that New York is better than people think).

PREDICTION
With the possible exception of football, injuries play no bigger role in any sport as they do in baseball. The Red Sox entered last season as defending World Series champions and looked fully capable of repeating; by midseason, Beckett, Lowell, and Ortiz were all damaged to some degree. As for the Yankees, as mediocre as they seemed at times, they still won 89 games despite losing, among others, Posada and Wang.

The Rays? They generally stayed healthy, which may have been nothing more than good fortune. Of course, younger players generally have a better chance of making it through a 162-game schedule. Tampa's biggest challenge this year may be dealing with expectation, something the Rays generally did not have to confront in 2008.

At the end of the day, Tampa appears to have the youngest, healthiest team. The Red Sox appear to have the deepest. The Yankees need a lot of things to go right to keep their best team on the field, though New York obviously has the financial resources to plug just about any hole that might spring up during a pennant race.

How they'll finish: Rays (division winner), Red Sox (wild card), Yankees.

TAMPA, Fla. -- In between the beginning and the end, the question seems obvious: Exactly how do the Red Sox intend to work things in the middle?

Opening Day 2009 is now less than a week away, and Red Sox manager Terry Francona continues to say the same thing: He is not quite sure how his bullpen will shake out. On paper, at least, Francona has a deep starting rotation behind No. 1 starter Josh Beckett and an assembly line of relievers stationed before closer Jonathan Papelbon. Francona isn’t saying who will pitch the eighth inning or even the seventh, and it is likely that the manager is merely playing it coy until he is prepared to announce his intentions.

In the interim, Francona clearly has choices.

Lots of 'em.

Yet, based on a combination of abilities, experience and track record, the Red Sox bullpen seems to fall into three groups, excluding Papelbon, whose role as closer is all but etched in granite. For simplicity’s sake, let’s call these Groups A, B, and C; the higher the letter, the later he is likely to appear in the game.

GROUP A: Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima
In a perfect world, there is no debate here: Saito gets the eighth. The obvious issue concerns the 39-year-old's health in the wake of a forearm/elbow problem that required him to rehabilitate the injury during the offseason. Were it not for that fact, Saito could be closing for most teams in the majors -- his career numbers are remarkably similar to Papelbon's. But for the Red Sox, he could be the primary setup man and serve as closer on those days when Papelbon needs a rest. At this stage of Saito’s career, it is the ideal role for him.

So far this spring, Saito has not pitched in back-to-back games. The surprising thing is that the Red Sox may adhere to this practice during the regular season. Asked about the need to handle Saito delicately, one Sox official said recently: "If we [misuse him], that’s our fault.’’

Given Masterson’s youth and durability -- he can pitch multiple innings and on back-to-back days -- the Red Sox have tremendous flexibility here. Masterson really is the key. The Sox can give Saito the eighth inning on one day, then entrust Masterson and/or Okajima on the next. The bottom line is that Francona has three high-level relievers for the seventh and eighth innings, a number that actually could grow depending on how deep the starter goes.

Last season, beginning on Aug. 1, Masterson had a 1.93 ERA and Okajima held batters to a .155 average. Saito has a career ERA of 1.95.

"We look like we’ll really be able to shorten the game if our bullpen’s healthy all year,’’ third baseman Mike Lowell said following Monday’s game in Kissimmee against the Atlanta Braves. "That’s a big plus for us.’’

Especially when you consider that the Sox still have three other relievers.

GROUP B: Manny Delcarmen
For now, Delcarmen stands alone in this group, stuck in the purgatory between middle relief and set-up. Nonetheless, that has proven to be a comfortable place for him. The closer Delcarmen is to the middle of the game, the better he pitches, which is why the ascension of Masterson late last season had such a profound effect on the bullpen as a whole.

Last year, again beginning on Aug. 1, Delcarmen posted a 1.84 ERA and held opponents to a .158 average with 29 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. During that span, he most frequently pitched in the sixth or seventh innings. Delcarmen can be effective against both lefthanded and righthanded batters, though he sometimes has command issues (12 walks in his final 29 1/3 innings last year) that make it harder for him to pitch at the end of the game.

In the ideal bullpen, Delcarmen would pitch in the middle of the game. On this team, that’s where Francona will likely use him.

GROUP C: Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez
For the moment, at least, these are Francona’s "matchup’’ guys -- Lopez against lefthanded hitters, Ramirez against righties. Depending on the performance of the starter or the situation, Francona could use them at virtually anytime, though most likely before the eighth. Last year, Francona brought in Lopez as early as the third inning, something you are even more likely to see this year given the apparent depth of the bullpen.

Last year, against lefties, Lopez recorded 26 strikeouts in 131 plate appearances against him, meaning he recorded a strikeout roughly 19.8 percent of the time. For comparison’s sake, Josh Beckett recorded a strikeout in 23.7 percent of all plate appearances against him (left or right).

As for Ramirez, the Red Sox believe he can be effective against lefthanded hitters, who batted .300 against him last season. Until that happens, don’t be surprised if Francona picks his spots. Last season, Ramirez held righthanded batters to an absurd .153 average while recording 38 strikeouts in 156 plate appearances, a strikeout rate of 24.4 percent.

On the whole, this bullpen has tremendous strikeout potential from top to bottom. Using last season as a guide -- and looking at Lopez and Ramirez solely in left-right matchups -- the seven projected Opening Day relievers recorded 362 strikeouts in 1,438 plate appearances against them. That number that translates into a strikeout 25.2 percent of the time, meaning Sox relievers recorded roughly a strikeout per inning as a staff.

Based on that, it is no wonder that people like Lowell are so excited about the Boston bullpen.

Clay Buchholz has made it almost all the way back, and so the best thing for him now is to stop. Take pause. There is simply no point in destroying what it has taken an entire winter to rebuild.

Continuing his resurgent spring yesterday with a six-inning stint against the Cincinnati Reds in Sarasota, Buchholz allowed three hits and just one unearned run in the Sox’ 2-1 victory. In five starts this Grapefruit League season, Buchholz is now 2-0 with a 0.46 ERA. The Red Sox do not need a fifth starter until April 12 of the regular season, and Buchholz should be the man if the Sox were to base their decision solely on merit.

But they won't. And they shouldn't.

Disappointed? Don’t be. The Red Sox are doing the right thing here. The whirlwind career of Clay Buchholz began with a late-season stop at Dunkin’ Donuts in 2007 that produced a 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA and the thrill of a no-hitter, but he was collecting cans in the parking lot less than a year later. Buchholz’s career so far has been a series of meteoric climbs and precipitous falls, and what the Red Sox need to do now is to put the kid on level ground, get him to set his feet, and continue in the right direction on the long journey toward a productive career.

At the big-league level right now, Buchholz has a lot more to lose by failing than he does to gain by succeeding, which is why the Sox shouldn’t even consider him an option for the majors until his confidence is unbreakable.

Do you really think he’s there yet?

Do you?

Last year, his official rookie campaign, Buchholz was nothing short of a train wreck. In 76 innings covering 16 appearances and 15 starts, Buchholz went a dreadful 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA, allowing an unthinkable 136 baserunners. Optimists might have chalked Buchholz’s difficulties up to nothing more than the usual growing pains of a young pitcher, but the problems went far deeper than that.

How bad was it? Buchholz’s ineptitude was historic. Since the start of the 1939 season, only one first- or second-year pitcher in history (Lee Guetterman, 1986) pitched as many innings as Buchholz and posted a higher ERA (7.34). Joining Guetterman and Buchholz in the no-so-fab-five are such luminaries as Troy Herriage, Steve Baker and Dan Perkins, now among baseball’s all-time quicker-picker-uppers.

Like paper towels, big league teams bought 'em, used 'em, and threw 'em away.

Here, in Boston, many missed the point. For all of the comparisons that might have been made between Buchholz's struggles and those early-career problems of Tom Glavine and, say, Greg Maddux, neither was quite that bad during his rookie or second season. Glavine went 7-17 with a 4.56 ERA in 1988, the first season in which he threw at least as many innings as Buchholz did in 2008. As for Maddux, he went 6-14 with a 5.61 ERA a year earlier; the 1987 season was his rookie campaign with the Chicago Cubs.

Interestingly, his 2008 season was very similar to the first year of another former Braves ace who debuted more than two decades ago -- one who happens to be Buchholz's teammate now. In 1988, John Smoltz went 2-7 with a 5.48 ERA for the lowly Braves, allowing a gruesome 10 home runs in 64 innings. His WHIP that season (1.67) was slightly lower than Buchholz's last year (1.76), but he struck out far fewer batters (37, while Buchholz whiffed 72 hitters in '08, an encouraging sign.) While the circumstances weren't entirely similar -- Smoltz was just 21 and had no previous big-league experience in '88 -- it is worth noting that Buchholz has a 20-year-veteran teammate who went through similar growing pains in his professional youth.

For now, Buchholz finds himself in that expansive gap somewhere between Guetterman and Glavine, perhaps the busiest intersection of all career crossroads. Even the Red Sox really don’t know which way the kid is going to go. The Sox believe Buchholz can be a successful big league starter capable of more extraordinary things, but they also know he could be the next Kevin Morton. In the baseball world, there are blind optimists and hopeless pessimists, and the good news in Boston is that the Red Sox are run by grounded realists who understand the need to avoid both extremes.

At this stage, after all, we have a pretty good grasp on how the Red Sox view Buchholz. By all indications, they have not been willing to part with him for Texas catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Yet they happily would have sacrificed him in the fantasy of reacquiring Hanley Ramirez. He's too promising to give away for another unproven prospect, yet too brittle to rely upon at the moment.

Last August, just days before he was demoted to Triple-A Pawtucket following a beating at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles, Buchholz turned 24 years old. Even after rejoining Double-A Portland (where he pitched in early 2007) for the final weeks of the season, Buchholz arrived at spring training this year with more career innings in the big leagues (98 2/3) than he has at Triple A (82 1/3). The wise thing would be to let Buchholz go back to the minors, where the reconstruction can continue, where the Red Sox can ensure that he has every chance of becoming what they believe he can be.

If Buchholz fails badly at Triple A, after all, he probably never was what the Sox thought he could be.

But if they bring up him now and he fails in Boston, they might very well destroy any chance at all.

Politically, socially, and culturally, Curt Schilling liked to test the limits. He frequently teetered on the edge, sometimes falling over it. Maybe it is only fitting that he similarly rests on the cusp of Hall of Fame enshrinement.

The truth?

This decision is simply not as easy as many New Englanders would like to believe.

An artist known for painting the outside corner and once accused of coloring a bloody sock, Schilling yesterday officially announced his retirement from baseball. With that news came the end of an era. Schilling spent five years with the Red Sox -- though he only pitched four -- and he sacrificed the final years of his career to pitch with a battened-down tendon in his right ankle.

For that, especially, New Englanders should be forever grateful to him. Schilling came to Boston to win a World Series and he ended up winning two. With a contractual clause that earned him an additional $15 million for winning a championship here, he put his money where his mouth was, a particularly notable accomplishment for someone with his, er, need to be heard.

But the Hall? With all due respect to New England baseball fans who profess to be among the most knowledgeable in the game, Schilling is not a slam dunk. Yesterday, based on internet reader feedback and the Schilling campaign/infomercial on WEEI, many would regard Schilling as a lock-stock-and-barrel(-chested) Hall of Famer. On the whole, these voices represented people forever indebted to Schilling for ending a near-century of futility or those for whom Schilling now works. You’d have a better chance of hearing Terry Francona question Schilling’s Hall of Fame credentials than you would some of the voices on Boston’s sports radio station.

No one is saying that Schilling does not belong in Cooperstown. We’re just saying that we can’t be too sure yet. Schilling had a very good career augmented by a brilliant postseason résumé, but there are still major holes that need to be examined.

• For all of the talk about how baseball won’t produce many 300-game winners anymore, Schilling pitched during an era that will produce several. Excluding the now-tainted Roger Clemens, the accomplished Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Randy Johnson all have eclipsed (or will soon eclipse) 300 wins. Between them, Maddux (four), Glavine (two), and Johnson (five) won 11 Cy Young Awards. Toss in Clemens and the number is 18.

  As good as Schilling was during blocks of his career, he never won a Cy Young Award. (Pedro Martinez, who has a career win total similar to that of Schilling, won three.) This fortifies the argument that Schilling was never a truly dominant performer of his era, which is one of the more important criteria for induction.

• On the high side, Schilling is comparable to future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who has just one career Cy Young Award and a sensational postseason history to go along with roughly the same number of career wins (210) as Schilling (216). Of course, Smoltz also had three truly dominating seasons as a closer, during which he compiled 144 saves against just three wins, meaning his win total might have been a good deal higher.

  The low side? Try Andy Pettitte, who has an almost identical number of career wins (215) and as many top-5 finishes in the Cy Young balloting (four). Pettitte also excelled in a large, high-pressure market while compiling 18 career postseason victories, many of them in virtual must-win situations. No New Englander in his right mind would consider Pettitte a Hall of Famer so much as they would consider him one of the better pitchers of his era.

• Before his 30th birthday, Schilling went just 52-52, meaning that his early years largely will be to blame if he fails to reach Cooperstown. Even Schilling has admitted that he was immature as a youngster and did not start to understand his potential until Clemens scared him straight. The final 12 years of Schilling’s career produced 164 wins -- this includes 2008, when Schilling did not pitch and was paid $8 million -- but there were still seven pitchers in the game who had more in that span, including: Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, Martinez, Mike Mussina, Pettitte, and Jamie Moyer.

  Schilling announces retirement with "zero regrets." (AP)

  Of those seven, the first four are Hall of Famers and the last three probably are not. Schilling likely falls somewhere in between the two groups -- between Martinez and Pettitte -- making him a truly borderline case and a most difficult candidate to assess.
• Postseason accomplishments are memorable, but they constitute a relatively small portion of a player’s career on the whole. In Schilling’s case, 19 of his 588 career appearances came in the postseason, a number that translates into roughly 3 percent. What reasonable voter would weigh 3 percent more than 97 percent when assessing any dilemma?

  Like Schilling, retired pitchers Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven, Dave Stewart, and Luis Tiant all were regarded as good big-game pitchers. None of them are in the Hall of Fame. One could just as easily make the argument that Schilling falls into this group as seamlessly as any he does in any discussion involving Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, or Martinez.

• New Englanders are unarguably parochial, passionate and loyal to their teams, which makes this such a fascinating place to write about, talk about, and dissect sports. Unfortunately, emotion also clouds judgment. Baseball lovers in this six-state region forever will be grateful for what Schilling gave the Red Sox, but he doesn’t get bonus points because he played in front of us.

  At the end of the day, when it comes to making the drive to Cooperstown, we have to treat him just as we would anyone else we’d consider sending down the Pike.

In 4 2/3 innings, he threw 98 pitches. Looks like Daisuke Matsuzaka is in midseason form, eh?

And so the World Baseball Classic is officially over now, at least in Boston, where the Red Sox have fulfilled their obligation to the rest of the world. (Think globally, act locally.) Japan will face Korea tonight in the championship game at Dodger Stadium, where Matsuzaka will be watching from the dugout after pitching Japan to a 9-4 win over the United States in the semifinals last night.

Now the real question:

How much is this going to hurt the Red Sox in September and, perhaps, October?

"It’s just the way it is," Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters in Belichickian fashion this morning when asked about Matsuzaka’s workload during the WBC. "You hope during the season you don’t pay the price for that."

Let’s be honest here, fellow Americans: The WBC isn’t about us and it never was. From the beginning, Bud Selig’s dream was to take baseball internationally, to become the Abner Doubleday of the Netherlands, South Africa, and Italy. No one disputes the notion that the players seem to be approaching these games with considerable passion, but the large majority of us tonight will know far more about fictional rebel Jack Bauer than we will about Korea pitcher Jung Bong.

As far as the Red Sox are concerned, the WBC was beyond a nuisance. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis got nicked up, as Francona might say, and Matsuzaka threw 16 more pitches last night than he did in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series last October. The Red Sox clearly aren’t too thrilled about all of this, particularly given the fact that they committed an average of roughly $17 million a year to get Matsuzaka in the first place.

"We have a couple of different ideas for him when he gets back, and then we’ll kind of go from there," Francona said. "He didn’t have a regular schedule. He has kind of a weekly schedule. It’s not the way we would escalate it on a normal progression. As soon as he gets back, we’ll sit with him and try to figure out the best way to determine how to go."

Overreacting, you say? Maybe yes, maybe no. Matsuzaka now has been with the Sox for two full seasons and won 33 games, suggesting his big league career is off to a glorious start. At the same time, Matsuzaka last year pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win at least 18 games, and he faded badly as a rookie during the second half of a 2007 campaign in which he appeared to be running on fumes in September and October.

Know what that means? It means Matsuzaka has a brief history of burning out early in his big league career. Last year, Matsuzaka was on the disabled list for much of June. Since Sept. 1, 2007, Matsuzaka has averaged fewer than six innings per start, a startlingly low number for someone who has been among the major league leaders in victories over the last two years.

And now his 2009 campaign has started about a month early, only heightening concerns about him entering the season.

With regard to this Red Sox team, we all know how important the pitching is. We also know that the Red Sox already have more than their share of health-related questions. (We are not including Pedroia and Youkilis.) As deep and talented as the Boston pitching staff appears to be -- at least on paper -- innings in the starting rotation are still a worry. Josh Beckett is coming of a season filled with nagging ailments. Tim Wakefield is 42. Brad Penny had shoulder weakness before throwing even a game and John Smoltz isn’t expected to pitch a big league game for at least another two months. If the Sox rely as much on Jon Lester this year as they did last, it will be an indication that they have encountered more problems along the way.

All of this brings us back to Matsuzaka, whose workload was a concern even before the WBC, if only for the fact that the Red Sox need to get more from him, not less. Matsuzaka is just 28. Of the 88 major league pitchers to qualify for the ERA title last season, Matsuzaka ranked 83d in innings, ahead of only Jason Marquis, Brandon Backe, Manny Parra, Ian Snell and John Lackey, the last of whom averaged nearly seven innings a start compared to Matsuzaka’s 5 2/3.

Now, with more than a week remaining in March, Matsuzaka is already tossing 98 pitches in 4 2/3 innings of tournament play.

If that doesn’t make you a little nervous, it should.

Don’t be surprised by the fact that the Red Sox have cut catcher Josh Bard. In many ways, George Kottaras, who has the backup catcher's role to lose according to general manager Theo Epstein, makes more sense for the Red Sox for an assortment of reasons.

For starters, Kottaras is cheaper. Beyond that, as a lefthanded hitter with some power, he is a much better offensive complement to Jason Varitek behind the plate.

In case you missed it, the Red Sox announced this morning that they have released Bard, who was due a non-guaranteed salary of $1.7 million this season. By releasing Bard now, the Red Sox give Bard the chance of catching on with another team and are obligated to pay just one-sixth of his salary, a number that translates into about $283,000. Had the Sox waited until tomorrow to release Bard, his guaranteed salary would have increased to one-fifth of $1.7 million, about $340,000.

Bard's salary of $1.7 million only would have become fully guaranteed if he were on the Opening Day roster.

All of this bodes quite well for Kottaras, who hit .243 with 22 home runs, a .348 on-base percentage and .802 OPS at Triple A Pawtucket last year. Kottaras's productivity from the left side fits well in tandem with Varitek, who struggled badly from the left side last season.

Bard batted just .230 from the left side last year with an OPS of .598, the latter of which was worse than even Varitek's number of .616.

In retrospect, the Sox may have signed Bard over the winter as insurance had they been unable to re-sign Varitek. Bard certainly had a chance at the backup job entering camp, but Sox officials privately were talking up Kottaras early on and, on Friday, Kottaras earned the start behind the plate in knuckleballer Tim Wakefield's outing against the Yankees.

Kottaras is out of options and would have had to clear waivers to be demoted this year, something the Red Sox clearly did not want to risk given his offensive potential.

Injuries, injuries, injuries. They’ve been piling up around here like recycled newspapers. From Dustin Pedroia’s abdominal strain to Julio Lugo’s knee to Glen Davis’s ankle to Tony Allen’s thumb, Boston's athletes have a list of ailments that looks like Evil Knievel’s medical history.

Let’s review the anatomical diagram, from head to toe, beginning with . . .

• Scalabrine’s head and neck, heretofore known as Scal-e-osis, not to be confused with scoliosis, a curvature of the spine. Injured in a 114-76 win at Denver on Feb. 23, Scalabrine has not played since and is not expected back until April. Diagnosis can be difficult because, quite frankly, Scalabrine was a little loopy to begin with.
• John Smoltz’s shoulder. A member of the Atlanta Braves for two decades, the classy righthander is trying to come back from shoulder surgery. He is out until late May or early June, largely as a precautionary measure so that he can be ready to pitch at the end of the year. In a best-case scenario of Smoltz shoulder, all symptoms generally are expected to subside by late summer, leading to a healthy autumn (assuming the Red Sox get there).
• Brad Penny’s shoulder, otherwise known as Acute A-Penny-itis, which can result (but not always) from a general muscle weakness relating to insufficient conditioning. Penny seems a good bet to open the season on the disabled list given that he has yet to pitch in a spring game. Somewhere, Larry Bowa is snickering.
• David Ortiz’s shoulder, wrist and mind, a combination of physical and psychological concerns that fall under the classification of general David-ia. Hampered by a torn tendon sheath in his wrist last season, Ortiz also developed a sore shoulder early this spring from, of all things, throwing. Yet, in the absence of Manny Ramirez, the greater concern is his mental health, particularly as he pined for lineup help during his inaugural spring training address. He is nonetheless expected to be ready for the season.
• Stephane Yelle’s undisclosed ailment, otherwise known as the Yelle Fever, somewhat similar to the Hellenic Flu in that the cause or severity of the injury is unknown. Yelle has seven goals, 11 assists and a plus-9 rating this season for the Bruins. He has been out since March 4.

Laurence Maroney’s body. Though Maroney was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury last season, a succession of ailments throughout his career leaves his entire body in doubt. This condition, known as Walking Maron-ia, results in an extreme shortage of confidence on the part of personnel directors and/or coaches. Hence, Fred Taylor is now a Patriot. Long-term prognosis: unclear.

• Dustin Pedroia’s abdomen. The starting second baseman for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, Pedroia unexpectedly rejoined the Red Sox over the weekend with a slight abdominal strain categorized as a minor ventral problem or MVP. (Ventral: "near, or on the belly.’’) Often confused with an oblique strain that sideline athletes for weeks, the MVP shouldn’t keep Pedroia out for more than a few days. You can exhale now.
• Tony Allen’s thumb. Otherwise known as Green thumb, the problem generally consists of ligament damage requiring surgery. In Allen’s case, his availability for the postseason is in question, leading to varying degrees of concern about his potential loss. Despite popular belief, Green thumb cannot be blamed for erratic jump-shooting tendencies beyond, say, 12 feet.
• Mike Lowell’s hip. After undergoing surgery last fall to repair a torn labrum, Lowell has returned to the field recently, though he still seems to moving somewhat gingerly. Given the central location of the hip, the player has been diagnosed with Inflammation of the Lowell connector, which frequently can result in stagnancy or "traffic’’ through the middle of the body. Long-term prognosis: Unknown.



• J.D. Drew’s back, a potentially chronic condition that can leave doctors and team officials mystified. Sometimes referred to as J.D.D. given Drew’s dorsal issues, the problem can crop up an anytime -- and usually does. Problems can persist for hours or months depending on the severity of the issue and time of season.
• Mark Kotsay’s back, a problem, in this case, expected to keep Kotsay off the active roster until approximately May 1. An issue that can arise without any warning and require an abrupt change in plan -- hence the popular term Skid Marks Disease -- Kotsay’s ailment inspired the Red Sox to sign Brad Wilkerson, who is expected to open the season as Kotsay’s replacement on the 25-man roster.
• Julio Lugo’s knee, believed to be a tear of the cartilage or "meniscus,’’ is generally as a relatively minor ailment that should sideline the player for roughly a month. Though Lugo could be out until the middle or end of April pending the results of an arthroscopic procedure tomorrow, Red Sox officials seemed relieved that there was no ligament -- or, in this case, Lugo-ment -- damage.
• Tom Brady’s knee. In this region, no other injury has received coverage so intense, and for good reason. Brady tore both the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and medial collateral ligament (MCL) in last year’s season opener, though all indications are that he will be ready for 2009. The good news? He has a new stable of receives that includes Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis. Besides, it’s not as if he ever ran like a Gisele.
• Kevin Garnett’s knee. Though technically a knee injury, this ailment -- commonly known as Ticket-itis -- can dramatically damage the backbone of any team. Just ask the Celtics, now just 6-6 since Feb. 19, the night Garnett was injured against Utah. The struggling Celtics expect him back later this week, perhaps against San Antonio, but his absence may have cost the Celtics home court advantage in the postseason. (Translation: Can lead to road rash.)
• Marco Sturm’s knee. In the case of the Bruins, Sturm’s injury was a season-ender that stripped the B’s of one their better sets of legs. Playfully named Marco’s polio by one longtime doctor, Sturm’s ailment only re-opened emotional scars resulting from the trade that brought him to Boston, a connection of the physical and psychological that some experts refer to as Thornton’s Law.
• Rajon Rondo’s ankle. Though Rondo returned to the lineup Friday, he played poorly (five turnovers) against Milwaukee yesterday. Celtics officials clearly felt that Rondo had recovered sufficiently from a sprained ankle to return to the court over the weekend, but the effects of his injury -- sometimes referred to as Rondoids -- still seem present. Prognosis: Good.
• Glen Davis’s ankle. The big forward, who has helped fill in for Garnett, sprained his ankle in a loss against Orlando March 8. There has been some speculation that such ankle injuries can prompt a spontaneous outbreak of tears, though most believe that Davis’s emotional outbreak resulted more from ostracism. Said one fictional specialist: "Nobody puts Baby in a corner.’’
• Eddie House’s ankle and heel. Injured in yesterday’s loss to Milwaukee, House is optimistic he will return to the court quickly. Nonetheless, the Celtics seem to be suffering an alarming number of limb and extremity injuries after playing into the middle of June last year, leading some to foolishly speculate that the team is suffering from the well-known hand-and-foot-in-mouth disease that has plagued, among others, wide receiver Terrell Owens.

All of this leads to one question:

Other than Glenn Rivers, is there a Doc in the house?

From Dustin Pedroia to Kevin Youkilis to Jon Lester, the total cost now rests at roughly $112 million for 15 years, an average of just under $7.5 million per player per season. And that is the real beauty of a productive farm system, one that has produced the nucleus of the Red Sox for several years to come.

The Red Sox and Lester have yet to announce the five-year, $30 million contract first reported by Yahoo!.com yesterday, but we all know it is a relative formality as the Sox continue to tie up loose ends as they approach Opening Day. One by one, general manager Theo Epstein is crossing tasks off the list as if he were strolling through the produce section, fixing long-term costs at a time of national economic turmoil.

Smart? You bet it is, and not solely for the Red Sox. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester all get something out of this, too, particularly Lester. Security means different things to different people, and you can bet it means a great deal to a young man diagnosed with cancer roughly 2 1/2 years ago.

We’ve said this before and we’ll say it again: For all of the criticisms of professional athletes for being greedy and self-centered in this day and age, we cannot sit here now and say they should have held out for more money. We just can’t have it both ways. The large majority of deals like those signed by Pedroia (six years, $40.5 million), Youkilis (four years, $41.25 million) and Lester end up favoring the team -- just ask Nomar Garciaparra, Grady Sizemore, or Evan Longoria -- and the player sacrifice on the back end is bigger than many realize. Over the long-term, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester all will lose money on these deals the way Josh Beckett is losing money now, but there comes a point where dollars become like grains of sand on the beach.

Once you sock away $30-$40 million, the next $5-$10 million doesn't mean so much, assuming you didn't spend it all on a fleet of yachts.

So, while some players and agents (like, say, Scott Boras) might frown on these kind of deals -- and that goes especially for the players' union -- you should recognize that contracts like this generally are good for the fan. Barring a career-altering injuries to key players, you know the Red Sox will have a good nucleus in the coming years. You know they will have money to spend on the free agent market. You know they can continue to put a good team on the field, year in and year out, because management is being shrewd enough to secure its most talented young players, simultaneously creating the financial flexibility to address weakness by pursuing high-priced players like Mark Teixeira on the open market.

Baseball is not like football. There is no salary cap. The beauty of being a big-market team with a thriving farm system is that you can keep your players and sign new ones, an art the Red Sox are now mastering.

Perhaps Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester won't remain with the Sox beyond their current deals. But at the moment, there is just no real need to worry about that. All three players will be in their 30s when their current deals are up -- the Sox also have options on each -- and the Red Sox have shown us in recent years that they are prepared to let anybody walk when the price gets too high.

By then, if all goes well for the organization, there will be a new Pedroia, a new Youkilis, and a new Lester to have emerged from the Boston player development machine. Epstein merely will continue to change fuses in the fusebox. The major downside for the organization comes only if the farm system goes dry, at which point Epstein might be forced to spend more on the free agent market than he would like.

Even if someone like Pedroia, Youkilis or Lester suffers a major injury, the financial hit on the organization is relatively minimal. But if someone like Teixeira goes down at a cost of $22.5 million annually, the team gets hammered on the field and on the balance sheet, the latter of which can prevent the team from addressing the former.

Relatively speaking, deals like this are safe investments for the team. That is why the Sox have agreed to terms with Pedroia, Youkilis and Lester, and not with closer Jonathan Papelbon. Certainly, it can be argued that Papelbon is every bit as important to the club’s long-term success as any of the previous three, but the problem is that he has had some shoulder issues and that closers generally have short lifespans.

Beyond that, the days of fans building "relationships" with players are clearly gone, largely because economics have become a driving force in the game. You may be a huge Josh Beckett fan, for instance, but you should prepare yourself now for the reality that he could be gone after his current contract expires in 2010 (assuming the Sox exercise their option for next season). The only way Beckett stays is if he makes that a priority the way Jason Varitek has, which he may or may not be eager to do after previously agreeing to a three-year, $30 million contract that now looks like a bargain for the club.

Of course, fans long ago seemed to have accepted the reality that players come and players go, which is just the way that sports work now. Sentimentality is gone. For most fans, the comfort now comes in knowing that Lester will be wearing your uniform for the next five or six years, and there is comfort for Lester in that, too. For the Red Sox, the comfort comes in knowing what it will cost to keep Lester in that very same uniform.

After all, over the next several years, somebody has to wear it.

Could you think of a better guy?

And so now, with the World Baseball Classic officially underway, we turn to Daisuke Matsuzaka. In the two seasons during which he has cost the Red Sox roughly $34 million, Matsuzaka has 33 wins.

For an expensive pitching acquisition, that’s a good ratio.

So far, so good.

"I think overall, when you put it into perspective and take into account the circus of the posting process and his signing to his status in Japan and the [2006] WBC, there was a lot of pressure on him," said Craig Shipley, the Red Sox director of international scouting. "So I think a lot of people would take 33 wins over a couple of years with the hope that he’ll continue to get better."

Especially when you consider the ripple effect on the Boston baseball operation and the Red Sox brand.

For obvious reasons, we have heard relatively little this spring about Matsuzaka, who makes his WBC debut Saturday. Meanwhile, starter Junichi Tazawa and reliever Takashi Saito are the latest Japanese imports in Red Sox camp. Add in Hideki Okajima and the Red Sox have four Japanese pitchers on their 40-man roster, with only Tazawa lacking major league credentials.

Want to know how people look at the Red Sox in Japan now?

"I think the people in Japan think the Red Sox are the best franchise in baseball now, even better than the Yankees," the 39-year-old Saito said early in camp. "I think it’s because of the hard work that Matsuzaka and Okajima have put in."

The point is that the Red Sox have become a force -- perhaps the force -- in the international marketplace. In the middle of all this stands Shipley, who played a significant role in the club’s signings of Matsuzaka, Okajima and Tazawa, the last of whom is expected to open this season at Double A and whom the Sox have equated to a high-round draft selection. (Saito played three excellent seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers before signing with the club as a major league free agent.)

Lest anyone forget, Shipley served as Bill Lajoie’s most trusted adviser during Theo Epstein’s walkabout in the fall of 2005, which is to say that Shipley played an integral role in the trade that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston. (Lajoie himself has said that he and Shipley were the two strongest voices for the trade.) Epstein regards Shipley as a tremendous evaluator, though that should come as no surprise given that Epstein is the man who brought Shipley to Boston in the first place.

A native Australian, Shipley actually grew up watching more Japanese baseball than he did American baseball, which helps explain why he now enjoys spending so much time in Japan.

And why he is getting results.

"I think we’ve put ourselves in a position to be knowledgeable on most players who come out of Japan," said Shipley, who works directly with fellow international scout and Australian John Deeble. "I think we’re in good position to make good decisions."

As all of this pertains to Matsuzaka -- and beyond -- there are a few things worth considering. First, in the modern baseball marketplace, a front-line starter costs somewhere in the range of $1 million per win. Twenty-game winners cost $20 million a year; 15-game winners costs $15 million a year. Independent of precise win totals in 2008, that helps explain why C.C. Sabathia (about $23 million annually), A.J. Burnett (roughly $18 million per coming off a 19-win season) and Derek Lowe (an average of $15 million per) ended up where they did.

Does that mean the New Yankees overpaid for their pitching? In a word, yes.

But that still doesn’t take away from the quality of the arms.

As for Matsuzaka, he required a $103 million investment from the Red Sox, a number that translates into roughly $17 million per season over the length of his six-year, $52 million contract. (The Sox paid an additional $51 million to the Seibu Lions in Japan for Matsuzaka’s rights.) The last time Matsuzaka pitched in the WBC, neither he nor anyone in baseball knew how significant he would soon become.

This year for Matsuzaka, the challenges are obvious: walk fewer batters and pitch more innings, though the Sox will happily sacrifice both of those things if he can simply maintain his level of victories. The Red Sox are far more concerned with what Matsuzaka can give them in September than they are on what he can give them in April, though the importance of the WBC to Japan (the defending champion) understandably has them holding their breath.

For Matsuzaka, after all, the 2009 season begins this weekend in Tokyo.

And yet, as far away as Fort Myers, his impact is still being felt.

(Update, 1:04 p.m.: Shortly after this column was published, several outlets reported that Manny Ramirez agreed in principle on a two-year, $45 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Apparently, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt didn't get his mail in time this morning.)

* * *

An open letter to Frank McCourt:

Dear Frank,

Snow covered the ground when we awoke amid relative serenity this morning, and then we saw it: Manny Ramirez appears to be close to returning to your Dodgers. My understanding is that you are planning to meet with Manny soon to finalize what could be a two-year, $45 million contract, and so we thought now was the time to reach out.

Don't do it, Frank. Don't get sucked in. Manny can still hit like a raging Jake LaMotta, and those few months he spent with the Dodgers last fall were proof. The problem is that Manny only hits when Manny wants to -- or, rather, when he needs to -- and you should remember just what you're getting into here.

Manny's a child, Frank. He's as unpredictable as a 13-year-old. He's got a lot of Eddie Haskell in him. Manny can turn on the charm and make you laugh and smile, and he can make you believe he's actually growing up. And then, when you really need him, he'll do exactly what an irresponsible, immature 13-year-old would do:

He'll go into a shell and put on his headphones, blocking out the world. He'll put his head under his pillow. He'll disappear on you the way he did on the Red Sox in August 2006, when the team was reeling and needed Manny to provide some measure of stability to a deteriorating situation.

Instead, he did to the Red Sox what John Henry did to your house.

The words? They mean nothing from him, Frank. He's incapable of living up to them or fulfilling an obligation. You may have been encouraged by Manny's comments to T.J. Simers in today's Los Angeles Times, but we urge you to ignore them. Manny's a good liar, Frank. He's as good a liar as he is a hitter. Anything he says carries no value because his actions frequently belie his words.

Here's what he told Simers:

• "Two years is fine with me."
• "The economy is making me adjust. That's just the way it is."
• "You're not listening to me. I've looked at the big picture from every different angle and life is too short to be mad. I've made a ton of money and now it's just about negotiating a deal. It's what happens in sports."
• "As long as I'm alive, I'm happy. I'm sitting here in my house by the water, drinking a margarita, dark glasses on and I'm in a good place. I'm in pretty good shape, too, playing with my three kids all the time."

Really, Frank, do you honestly believe any of it? Do you? The only truth there is that Manny is adjusting to the economy, and even that is only half right. If he were adjusting to the economy, you'd offer him a one-year, $15 million deal and he'd take it. The truth is that you're being way too nice to him, way too generous, and that Manny has nowhere else to get the kind of money you're offering.

Of course, we understand your dilemma. In the National League West, especially, we know what Manny means. Your team was extraordinarily mediocre for two-thirds of last season, and then it all changed when Manny came to town. He single-handedly decided the division, and then he almost carried you to the World Series. You may think you know the real reasons behind that -- namely, that Manny loves LA -- but the truth is that he had dollar signs in his eyes from the moment he got to "Mannywood."

He was playing for the money, Frank. That's all this was ever about. Manny thought he could play for two months and land a four-year, $100 million contract, and he believed that right up until a day or two ago. He's now going to get less than half of that -- good for you -- though we have serious questions about whether he will actually earn it.

Think about it, Frank. There are only two reasons Manny is "happy" now. The first is that he has nowhere else to turn. The second is that he wasn't going to show up at spring training until early March anyway. He's getting dangerously close to that line where he will become the next Barry Bonds, a unique talent whose ability is outweighed by his self-centeredness.

Look, Frank, we understand that baseball is competition and that you have a business to run. We just think you should be aware of your alternatives. If you stay away from Manny now, you'll have room to add players later. Come midseason, you might be able to add Matt Holliday in a trade with the Oakland A's, who might be conducting their annual talent sale by July. Holliday is younger and cheaper, and he will be a free agent in the fall. Passing on Manny now means you could spend on Holliday later, and it would give you the hitter you need for the long-term as well as the short.

At the end of the day, when you get right down to it, here's the problem with Manny, Frank: He'll generally coast now until he sees the next dollar signs, which will probably be some time around Aug. 1, 2010. If you give him this contract, that's what you are giving him license to do. You get a fully focused Manny some of the time and half-focused Manny most of the time, and you'll be kicking yourself when he exercises that $20 million option to remain with your team in 2010.

Of course, we know what you're thinking: We have a negative opinion of Manny because of how things ended here in Boston, and you're half right. In some ways, we still think the Red Sox should have kept him. Manny had zero RBIs in the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees -- bet you didn't know that? -- but we've never disputed the fact that his mere presence makes an enormous difference in any manager's lineup. Unfortunately, late last season, we found that his absence makes a big difference in the manager's life, too.

Joe Torre can probably handle Manny, at least for a time, but don't kid yourself. You don't want a relationship and neither does he. Manny has never been more than the perfect late-summer fling. You both consented to what amounted to a one-night stand last year, and you both had a heck of time. You got the Dodgers back into the spotlight and he got to prove that he can still hit, two sides benefiting from using the other.

Now, we're urging you to walk away, Frank.

But we know you won't.

Signed,

Your Guardian Angel

Opening Day is still more than a month away, so there's no need to panic. At the same time, can be it a good sign when the Red Sox' No. 5 starter and starting right fielder are already encountering physical issues?

We hear it every spring: The primary goal is health, health, health. The baseball season is impossibly long and designed to break you down, individually and collectively. Someone like Dustin Pedroia might want to play in all 162 games, but it really is not that practical to even try. There is no point in wearing yourself out before October.

With regard to right fielder J.D. Drew and starter Brad Penny, the news from Florida this morning is not particularly encouraging. Drew, as it turns out, returned to Boston yesterday for what manager Terry Francona described as a "precautionary" injection in his troublesome lower back. And Penny has been scratched from a scheduled start Thursday with shoulder weakness.

Just like that, the mind starts to race and we cannot help but wonder what the long-term impact will be.

We need to do some distinguishing between Penny and Drew. At this stage of spring training, there is a very big difference between being bumped from a start and requiring an injection. The latter seems far, far more worrisome, particularly entering a season in which the offense is one of the club's greater concerns.

Remember: We really don't know what the Red Sox are going to get from Mike Lowell and David Ortiz at this stage -- especially Lowell -- which means that any issue with Drew could be critical. This is especially true when you consider the backup outfield situation, which suddenly doesn't look so appetizing.

Yes, we all admire Rocco Baldelli, and not entirely for the fact that he is, relatively speaking, a local boy. He is also an extremely pleasant and polite young man. The problem with Baldelli is that he is a backup outfielder in the most literal sense, which is to say that he can only play part-time. If any of the starting outfielders were to suffer an injury -- like a back ailment, say -- Baldelli is not a candidate to play every day because of his well-documented physical issues.

That's part of the reason the Red Sox re-signed Mark Kotsay, who can play every day if necessary and also offers some measure of infield security if Lowell needs to be handled delicately. (Kevin Youkilis could move to third and Kotsay could play first.) The problem is that Kotsay is currently out until approximately May 1 following back surgery, leaving Brad Wilkerson as the next choice.

See the ripple effect here? If Drew's back proves problematic ... and given Baldelli's issues ... and with Kotsay already out ... the lineup gets pretty thin pretty fast, at least for the early part of the season. And even if Kotsay were to come back and play at a level that made him a solid starter for the bulk of his career, the Red Sox would have a hard time replacing Drew in the middle of the lineup.

As for Penny, he is the No. 5 starter. By definition, that would be a relatively marginal loss. Part of the reason Penny received only a one-year deal for relatively short money ($5 million) is because he was coming off a dreadful 2008 season, during which he missed ample time with a shoulder problem. But then, that's precisely why the Red Sox pursued him in the first place, opting for a low-risk, high-reward signing that would not handcuff them for the long term.

Unfortunately, with those kinds of deals, the short-term risk is also high.

As we all know, pitching depth is one of the true strengths of this Red Sox club, and not just among the projected 1 through 12 of the Opening Day roster. With Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Wes Littleton, among others, the Sox staff may run 15 or 16 deep. There will be cause for concern only if the Sox begin to lose significant contributors.

Again, let's say Penny has to miss significant time. Before anyone suggests that the Sox accelerate the process with John Smoltz, that would be the wrong answer. (Again, it's about October.) The best candidate to replace Penny in the rotation might be righthander Justin Masterson, but that move immediately would make the bullpen weaker and increase the potential workload on Takashi Saito. At that moment, the 39-year-old Saito would become more susceptible to injury given the concerns over his elbow and forearm.

But then, that's what the baseball season does to you.

It eats at every one of the 30 major league teams, piece by piece.

Of course, there is every chance here that Drew and Penny will be fine in the long run, though only the Red Sox know the true severity of the problems. Maybe there is really nothing at all to worry about. But considering the way these Sox are built at the moment, there seems the likelihood that the club will need to win lower-scoring games than in years past, which means they cannot afford to lose too much pitching or any offensive centerpieces.

And as much as that is true for any potential contender, it is particularly worrisome when the problems come in the early days of March.

After all, the grind hasn't even begun.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Got a theory on spring training: The more "ifs" you have now, the more L's you'll have later.

Only it might not apply to the 2009 Red Sox.

Veterans of five playoff series the past two seasons, the Red Sox will begin their spring schedule with a split-squad doubleheader today and tonight, first against Boston College before a nightcap with the Twins. Over the next seven weeks, we should begin to get some answers to some of the questions facing this club.

Which brings us to the "ifs," of which there are quite a few:

If Josh Beckett can avoid nagging injuries . . .

. . . if David Ortiz can regain his form . . .

. . . if Mike Lowell is healthy . . .

. . . if Jason Varitek can rebound . . .

. . . if J.D. Drew can stay on the field . . .

. . . if a productive starting shortstop emerges . . .

. . . if Jacoby Ellsbury can be more consistent . . .

. . . if Rocco Baldelli can really help . . .

. . . if Brad Penny can turn it around . . .

. . . if John Smoltz can hold up . . .

. . . then the Red Sox will be a legitimate threat to win another World Series.

Of course, every team has its questions at this time of year, so the Red Sox hardly qualify as unique. Nonetheless, relative to Sox teams of recent years, only the 2006 edition seemed to have as many potential issues. That club had a 61-38 record and a 2-1/2-game lead in the AL East with 63 games to go, then went 25-38 over a final two months highlighted by an avalanche of injuries and Operation Shutdown, the controversial withdrawal of Manny Ramirez.

The change was dramatic with that club, to be certain, but the truth is that the Red Sox' deficiencies caught up with them that year, which is precisely what the baseball season is constructed to do.

Expose you.

That brings us to the 2009 edition and the relatively large number of health issues facing this club, which can only make you wonder if the Red Sox could be facing some sort of late-season breakdown again. At the same time, these Sox are much deeper and younger. The farm system has matured considerably since 2006, which remains the only sub-90-win season on the resume of general manager Theo Epstein.

For all of the questions with this club, there could be enormous benefit from the uncertainty, too. From Varitek to Beckett to Ortiz to Ellsbury, many of this year's Sox have something to prove, at least on some level. Beckett may have his Red Sox legacy at stake; Varitek may be fighting for his right to remain a starter; Ellsbury has yet to establish an identity -- cornerstone or ceiling tile? -- and Ortiz may be fighting for his reputation as a true No. 3 or No. 4 hitter.

In many ways, that is a good thing.

In 1995, after all, the Red Sox won a division title with a collection of players on one-year deals fighting to rebuild their reputations in the wake of the infamous work stoppage that wiped out the 1994 World Series. Erik Hanson won 17 games that year. Stan Belinda finished with a 3.10 ERA. Mike Macfarlane hit 15 home runs and Luis Alicea batted .270.

And in a division (and league) thrown into disarray by the work stoppage, that slightest bit of motivation proved enough to get the Sox into the postseason.

Make no mistake: At the highest levels, assuming a decent amount of talent is at hand, motivation can make all the difference in the world. Whether or not anyone here wants to admit it, that was part of the reason the Tampa Bay Rays were such a scary matchup for the Red Sox last year. The Rays were hungry. They had a great deal to prove. They were willing to fight for their place in the AL hierarchy, something they demonstrated at Fenway Park early last season when James Shields drilled Coco Crisp and touched off a bench-clearing brawl.

To their credit, the Red Sox last season did not give up their world title so much as they had it taken away. They lost to a younger, better, and healthier team. One of the most underrated qualities of Red Sox teams in recent years has been their sheer competitiveness, which comes back to an old cliche: you may be able to measure the size of the man in the fight, but you cannot measure the size of fight in the man. In the last six years, especially, the Red Sox have been unafraid to fight anyone at anytime, and they can proudly say that they did not lose to anyone for lack of focus, heart, or guts.

When they lost, they generally got beat.

What that means for this season is anybody's guess, but this much we know: To a man, the 2009 Sox possess great pride, professionalism, and work ethic. The peer pressure in the Boston clubhouse is a very positive thing because, generally speaking, Sox players all seem to hold themselves to a high standard. As Josh Beckett noted last postseason, the Sox wanted to win for each other as much as for themselves, and the DNA of this club generally has been unaltered.

The long-term health of this club? Maybe it's worth worrying about than in some other years.

But if history has shown us anything, it is that the new-age Red Sox are willing and downright eager to confront any challenge.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Standing in the chilly morning shadows at the Red Sox’ spring training complex this morning, Jason Bay asked if he could move into the sunlight. Given that Bay is a man who spent virtually his entire major league career in Pittsburgh before coming to Boston at the July 31 trading deadline last season, maybe it is only fitting that he would just as soon stay out of the darkness in the long term, too.

"I’m comfortable here,’’ Bay said when asked about his time with the Sox he enters the final year of his contract. "No one likes to move around all the time. Especially if you get the chance to become a free agent, there are a handful of places that have a chance to win and Boston is on the short list.

"I guess if you’re asking me if I’d like to stay here, the answer on a lot of accounts would be yes,’’ Bay said. "But that doesn’t mean it’s ultimately going to happen."

The story lines of this spring have long since been defined for the Red Sox, the majority of them built around key players returning from injury. Here is one equally as important: Bay’s long-term future with the team. Acquired last in the seismic deal that sent Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bay batted .293 with nine home runs, 37 RBI and 39 runs scored in 49 games with the Red Sox. He had an .897 OPS, very much in line with his career number of .891.

Then, in his first career exposure to the postseason, Bay batted .341 with three home runs, nine RBI and six runs scored in 11 postseason games, fortifying the notion that he could blossom in a big market.

Suddenly, in the aftermath of an offseason highlighted by the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, Bay looks more important to the Red Sox than ever before. Along with Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, he is one of the only relatively sure things in the Boston lineup. The Red Sox were concerned enough about their offense that they were prepared to throw $170 million over eight years at Teixeira, which leads to an obvious question:

How much more concerned will they be if they lose Bay, too?

Now 30, Bay has averaged 29 home runs and 95 RBI over his first five full big league seasons. He is a good baserunner and solid defender. The group of upcoming free agent outfielders includes, among others, Bobby Abreu, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holliday and Vladimir Guerrero, and it could be argued that each is a better pure hitter than Bay. But factoring in age, defense and mobility, there may not be a more desirable free agent outfielder on the market next November than the man who currently plays left field for the Red Sox.

As familiar as that may sound, don’t expect the dignified Bay to turn that into nearly the soap opera that his predecessor did.

"Until I have something [in the form of an offer] to consider, I’ve got a year left," Bay said with regard to free agency. "I’m playing it and I’m happy."

Here comes the proverbial $64,000 question:

Exactly what is Bay worth?

And for how long?

Over the winter, when asked about the prospect of signing Bay to a long-term deal, one baseball source indicated that the team was waiting to see how the market developed for hitters on the open market. Since that time, Pat Burrell (two years, $16 million), Milton Bradley (three years, $30 million), Adam Dunn (two years, $20 million), Raul Ibanez (three years, $31.5 million) and Bobby Abreu (one year, $5 million) all have signed. As it pertains to Bay, the first four of those deals are far more relevant than the fifth, meaning Bay’s value falls somewhere in the range of $10 million (at least) for a minimum of three seasons.

And in all probability, given Bay’s skill set and age compared to that group, he would warrant a longer deal for more guaranteed money.

For Bay, the frustrating part is that he might have received more money last fall had he negotiated with the red Sox upon being traded, but he said this morning that issue never came up.

"There were bigger things out there than me,’’ he said. "If it’s in their plans now and they want to discuss it, I’ll definitely listen."

And as for the downturn in the market?

"That’s the position I’m in," Bay said. "Regardless of the market or what’s going on, I can’t forgo free agency until the market gets better."

Which means he has to use any and all leverage now.

In the end, will this deal get done? The chances seem good, since the fit is good for both player and team. During this offseason, the Red Sox already have secured Pedroia and Youkilis to long-term deals while adding depth to their pitching staff in the form of several low-risk, high-reward signings. The minor league system seems loaded with young pitching talent. Meanwhile, the Boston offense has more than its share of questions at this point, and Bay looks like one of only three sure things entering the 2009 campaign.

Of those three, for now, he is also the only one without security beyond this year.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- So what do you think? Is it us or is it them?

Roughly 10 days have passed since Red Sox pitchers and catchers reported to spring training, and there are continuing signs that interest in the team is waning. Just last week, Sox administrators John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner acknowledged that nine home games in April and May have yet to be sold out, a once unimaginable occurrence during the franchise's golden age under the reign of King Henry I.

Could it be that the Red Sox are getting -- dare we say it -- relatively boring?

With regard to recent Red Sox history, it was only a matter of time before we encountered, for lack of a better word, a recession. Entering 2009, the Sox have enjoyed an increase in attendance over each of the last 12 seasons, the longest such streak in baseball. In Theo Epstein's six seasons as general manager, the Sox have scored more runs than any team in the game and been to the playoffs five times, winning two World Series.

Over the last two seasons, the Sox have won a world title and reached Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, the latter coming despite a rash of injuries that would have derailed a lesser group.

All in all, things have been astonishingly good.

And yet, as the Sox methodically prepare for the 2009 campaign, this spring training is noticeably devoid of any real buzz. One of the more professional Sox clubs in history has been showing up on time, doing its work, then calling it a day. Some of this has to do with the doldrums that come along with every camp, but some of it runs much, much deeper.

"I don’t know if bored is the right word," Sox senior statesman Tim Wakefield said when asked about the current Sox camp. "It just gets monotonous before games start."

Thankfully, that happens Wednesday.

But really, how much will things change with this club between now and Opening Day?

At the moment, we all know the major issues surrounding this team: the health of David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Josh Beckett; productivity at the catcher, shortstop, and center field positions. None of those issues will be decided for quite some time, and it is quite possible that the Red Sox will play much of the regular season before they determine their most significant issues and concerns.

Before 2004, we never really had such a long-term outlook when it came to the Red Sox. The absence of a world title for 86 years understandably made us short-sighted and impatient. Burdened by past failures, we placed undue emphasis on relatively meaningless events and melodramas, from the late arrivals of spring to ordinary stints on the disabled list to the frustrating losing streaks that are part of any season.

But now? Now we shrug it all off because we know the Red Sox will be good. We just don’t know if they will be great. And because that answer will not begin to come until Aug. 15, at the earliest, we chalk up most of the early developments to an accepted part of the journey, only fueling the theory that the Red Sox and their followers finally have reached an emotional maturity.

Here’s the problem: A little anxiety isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It helps guard against complacency. As good as the Red Sox were last year, television ratings on NESN dropped by just a shade under 20 percent. That is hardly a subtle drop. Demand dipped considerably on the secondary ticket market last postseason, suggesting that many were interested if -- and only if -- the Red Sox again reached the World Series.

Have we become that spoiled?

Are we really taking that much for granted?

On the field, for whatever it is worth, the Sox have undergone few dramatic changes over the last two offseasons. Since the start of the 2007 campaign, the only truly major change to the Red Sox roster was the deal that brought Jason Bay to Boston and cast off Manny Ramirez. What the Sox gained in professionalism they lost in tabloid sensationalism, which is a credit to Bay’s character and makeup as much as it is a criticism of Ramirez’s immature and irresponsible behavior.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox lost something in Ramirez, and not just in the batter’s box. They lost something at the newsstand and the water cooler, too. Human nature being what it is, we talk about things more when they go wrong than when they go right. That’s part of the reason the gossip pages are routinely filled with people like Britney Spears, Amy Winehouse, and recently, Alex Rodriguez. The more screwed up you are, the more fascinating you become. It’s why everyone slows down when driving past a car accident.

At this point in time, and in this day and age, the Red Sox are nothing short of a well-oiled machine operating at peak efficiency. They have good ownership, good management, good big league players, and a good minor league system. None of that is really debatable anymore. The entire clubhouse generally seems like a collection of good guys genuinely interested in each other’s well being, which makes them all very easy to like and root for.

At the moment, it just makes them challenging to talk about.

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Assorted thoughts from spring training while waiting for the first game to start …

• With Jason Varitek having signed just before the start of camp, there are no indications that the Red Sox are currently close to any deals for a young catcher. According to one baseball source, the Arizona Diamondbacks met with catcher Miguel Montero at the start of their camp and informed him that no deals were imminent, though the D’backs still intend to trade one of their young catchers.

  In the interim, the Red Sox appear most likely to open the season with Varitek and Josh Bard as the catching tandem, though one club official recently went out of his way to suggest that George Kottaras looked sharp in the early days of camp. Kottaras is out of options and could be a threat to beat out Bard, though the more likely scenario is that the Red Sox are trying to increase Kottaras’ trade value so that they do not simply lose him on waivers.

  Or, perhaps, that the Red Sox are trying to bring down the price for someone like Montero by suggesting that they have in-house options.

  Think about it: If Kottaras looked THAT sharp, why wouldn’t the Red Sox simply regard him as their catcher of the future and forgo all trade discussions with other teams?

• Early in camp, the Red Sox worked on a fielding drill with their pitchers in the bullpens at their complex. Using soft, stuffed "baseballs," manager Terry Francona stood at home plate and hit one rocket after the next at Sox pitchers with the idea of improving their fielding reflexes.

  On one of the days during the drill, Francona whistled a one-hopper that bounced up and hit Jon Lester in the right shoulder, sending a brief scare through the organization. After the fact, general manager Theo Epstein needled Francona.

  Said the GM, "Next time, can you find someone else to hit?"

• Before games start, the Sox' daily routine in camp consists of stretching and an emphasis on at least one fundamental -- cut-off plays, bunt defenses, etc. -- before the Sox break into individual groups for work on defense and offense. Defense always comes first, for a couple of reasons.

  First, by taking defense first, the Sox ensure that they will be doing fielding drills on groomed fields that have yet to be chewed up. Second, as Francona noted, "It kind of puts an emphasis on defense, and that just kind of seems right."

• David Ortiz clearly has had enough of talking about steroids, though he is hardly alone. The topic seems to have runs its course a long time ago. The obvious problem is that the issue resurfaces every time the identity of another user is revealed, which leads to further understanding of just how deep the problems ran.

  And when that happens, baseball’s leadership looks worse and worse.

  Before anyone interprets that solely as an indictment on Bud Selig, it isn’t. Still, like everyone -- including the media -- Selig should acknowledge that he might have done things differently in retrospect. Somewhere along the line, baseball became more interested in rebuilding its business more than anything else, which has led to an unfortunate side effect.

  Now, the game has to rebuild its credibility.

  That said, Selig is hardly alone. Amid the suggestion that union deputy Gene Orza tipped off players with regard to scheduled drug tests, the union looks more corrupt than ever. And lest this come off as passing the buck, the media had its chance to blow the whistle, too. As much as we all talked about steroids at the time, the large majority of us never pursued it.

  And that, dear friends, is how baseball turned into professional wrestling.

• It takes all of five seconds to recognize the air of dignity and professionalism that envelops reliever Takashi Saito. Saito’s build and mannerisms are eerily similar to those of Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who is one of the more respected players in the game. Members of the Japanese media adore Saito, and Varitek went so far as to describe Saito’s presence as "Nomo-ish," which is a compliment of the highest order.

  Though Saito is more engaging than Nomo, both are regarded as consummate professionals and gentlemen.

• Maybe it’s American arrogance at its finest, but does anyone here really care about the World Baseball Classic? OK, it’s a cute event that helps disrupt the monotony of spring training. But is there anyone out there who believes that this country takes the event seriously?
• Catcher Mark Wagner is just 24 years old and batted .219 in his first exposure to Double-A last year, but the Red Sox believe he is a major league player. The Sox just don’t know if Wagner is a future starter or a backup.

  In 2007, during a full season at Class-A Lancaster, Wagner batted .318 with 14 home runs, 82 RBIs and a .939 OPS. That makes 2009 a very big year for him in terms of forecasting his future, though, as we all know, catchers are frequently slower to develop than most players.

• On the first day of live batting practice, right fielder J.D. Drew had the misfortune of facing 6-foot-4-inch, 235-pound reliever Hunter Jones, who went 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA at Triple-A last year. Asked whom he was facing by a member of the media who did not recognize the 25-year-old Jones, Drew grinned, then shrugged.

  "C’mon, man," Drew chuckled. "If you don’t know, how would I?"

  Ah, the beauty of spring training.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Amid all the talk of juicing in baseball, here is something to celebrate: Julio Lugo is off milk.

"I feel better. I was sick to my stomach there for a couple of years,’’ Lugo said this morning at the Red Sox’ spring training facility, where he revealed that he suffers from lactose intolerance. "I try to stay away from milk as much as I can now. It’s made a difference."

All together now:

Got soy?

Now entering the third year of a four-year, $36 million contract, Lugo entered this spring looking like an $18 million write-off. Jed Lowrie, steady as a rookie, seemed a far more logical choice to be the starter at shortstop. None of that has changed today as the Red Sox inch closer to the start of their Grapefruit League schedule, though a reconditioned Lugo clearly has spent a significant chunk of the offseason reinvesting in baseball.

Which raises an interesting question:

What if he can, you know, play?

Here’s something that may surprise you: Among the 11 American League shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances last season, Lugo finished second in on-base percentage (.356) to only Derek Jeter (.360). The biggest drop-offs in Lugo’s game came on defense and with regard to power output, two of the primary areas the inspired the club to sign him to a deal that currently looks, well, Offermanesque.

At this stage, Lugo has been such a disappointment that virtually no one seems to expect anything from him. Of course, he doesn't necessarily feel that way.

"You just come into camp like you’re going to play and hope everything gets back to normal," he said. "That’s about it."

Actually, based on the last two years, what the Sox are looking for is the abnormal, which is to say that they hope to see the player they thought they were signing in the first place. No one is expecting Lugo to hit .300 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI, but if the Red Sox could get something in the range of .265 with 8-10 home runs, 30 doubles and 20 steals to go along with decent defense, there would be every reason to give him the job and employ Lowrie as the utility man.

If that sounds like a criticism of Lowrie, it isn’t. Lugo and Lowrie are very different players blessed with very different strengths. The former more athletic, the latter more fundamentally sound. Lowrie, too, has the ability to play more positions, a versatility that could of particular value to a Sox club intent on being cautious with third baseman Mike Lowell. And don't forget, Mark Kotsay is expected to miss the first month of the season.

Instead of shuttling Kevin Youkilis across the diamond every few days, wouldn’t the Sox just be better off spot starting Lowrie at third every now and then?

Of course, all of that depends on the performance of Lugo, who can offer significant value. As general manager Theo Epstein has pointed out on more than one occasion, the Red Sox place relatively little emphasis on errors and fielding percentage when it comes to evaluating defensive ability. Still, most everyone in the Boston organization agrees that Lugo’s 2008 campaign was nothing short of a defensive train wreck, which made the drop in power -- he ranked last in slugging among the same 11 AL shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances last year -- all the more costly.

But if Lugo can be merely an average player in 2008, the Red Sox could be far better off for it.

"There’s a lot that he does bring [when on top of his game]," Sox manager Terry Francona said when asked about Lugo’s potential strengths. "When a guy gets hurt, people tend to forget and we don’t want to do that. That’s why we reminded him -- he comes in, it’s a new year, clean slate. He looks like he worked hard. He’s thick, stronger. I know we haven’t played a game yet but the ball does seem to be coming off the bat good, which is a good sign. That’s good news."

The obvious follow-up:

But for how long?

With regard to Lowrie, at this stage, the Red Sox only can expect so much. Last season, for a time, the club entertained the idea of giving Lowrie some work at first base, but they didn’t want to bog him down with too much in what amounted to his rookie year. Lowrie ended up being the starting shortstop for a team that reached Game 7 of the League Championship Series, and he played the position so well for 49 regular-season games (zero errors) that he deserves to be called the favorite at this stage of camp.

But again, this isn’t solely about him; it’s about what makes the Red Sox the best team. Just as it serves the Sox to currently employ Justin Masterson as a reliever -- this still leaves open the door for him to start someday -- so it is with Lowrie in an all-purpose role.

As for Lugo’s lactose intolerance, one can only wonder if an aversion to dairy products really could be responsible for so much frustration. Lugo said that he learned of the problem late last season with the help of Sox doctor Larry Ronan, who referred the player to a specialist. Lugo subsequently spent the offseason rebuilding his body and his mind, leading him to proclaim that he is now in the best shape of his career.

Only the effect on his game remains to be seen.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- From his days in the minor leagues to his days in the majors, Grady Little went through the same routine every year. Little would head out the door for the start of spring training, and his wife would assess her husband's chances based on his answer to one question.

How does your bullpen look?

Clearly, Debi Little is a smart woman.

No segment of a team can stabilize -- or undermine -- a season quite like the men who serve as baseball's version of paratroopers. The relievers are the unit within the unit, all but dropped into the middle of a hairy situation as if pushed from a plane. Special skills are not an asset as much as a requirement. And the Sox seem to have assembled as skilled a bullpen group as any in the majors.

"Every reliever here has an established major league track record,'' Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell said today as the team continued spring training workouts. "I also think that it's a diverse bullpen in that you have different arm angles and we have the ability to match lefthanders and righthanders. And with the addition of [Takashi] Saito and [Ramon] Ramirez, it adds to our strikeout ability as a group.''

This morning, on the sun-baked fields of their minor league complex, the Red Sox took another step in their spring training program when pitchers began throwing live batting practice. The drill is designed to begin simulating game conditions. Today's group of pitchers included most every reliever in camp, from Saito and Ramirez to Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, and there really is no need to evaluate the performance of each.

What is important, after all, is what the relievers could accomplish come the start of the regular season, only reinforcing the long-held belief that health is the priority.

Said Sox manager Terry Francona when asked for any preliminary evaluation of his relief corps, "There were no red flags that came up for anybody."

That brings us to Saito, the 39-year-old reliever whose major league resume is positively eye-popping. In 180 career appearances over 189 1/3 innings, Saito has a mere 52 walks against 245 strikeouts, an average of 11.6 whiffs per nine innings. His ERA is 1.95. Saito's health is of major concern given past problems to his forearm area and elbow, but what he could give the Red Sox is … well, let's allow Jason Bay to explain.

"One of the nastiest pitchers in the league,'' said Bay, who faced Saito in the National League and who stood in against him today. "And I can't be the first guy that's said that.''

He isn't.

As for Ramirez, he had a 2.64 ERA for the Kansas City Royals last season before being acquired in a trade for Coco Crisp. Thus far, for an assortment of reasons, he has led an anonymous existence in camp. Ramirez is built a little like former Sox pitcher Tom Gordon, and he possesses the kind of stuff that could make him an invaluable setup man to closer Jonathan Papelbon in the late innings.

Last season, Ramirez held righthanded batters to a .153 average while lefties hit a robust .300 against him. But if he can learn to control the inner edge of the plate against lefties -- and he has the stuff to do it -- the Red Sox could be looking at a succession of power arms that would make them quite stingy in the late innings.

And we haven't even begun to talk about Justin Masterson, Okajima, Delcarmen, Javier Lopez and Papelbon, a group that stabilized and performed well after Masterson joined the bullpen on July 23.

What this means for Francona is that he could have countless options at his disposal late in games thanks to the depth and array of skills housed in his bullpen. Part of the reason the Sox could gamble on Saito, for example, is because their bullpen depth should lessen the need for innings from him during the course of the season. (In his case, less could produce more.) The Sox also can afford to absorb Ramirez's current ineffectiveness against lefthanded batters because Papelbon, Saito, Delcarmen, Okajima, and Lopez all have had success against lefties, which means Francona can play matchups, if he chooses, at virtually any stage of the game.

A long man? The Red Sox don't really believe in it. Because the team has had such confidence in its offense in recent years, Francona believed the Sox could overcome most any deficit. As such, he has never been fond of having a long specialist or mop-up man purely for the purpose of saving arms. If things get dire enough, the Red Sox always can summon a temporary call-up from the minors; if they don't, Francona now can trot out so many capable relievers that the Red Sox could silence opponents for the balance of any game.

At least in theory.

In recent big league history, a capable bullpen is critical to success. While a good relief corps does not guarantee success, a bad bullpen all but eliminates any chance of at success. What general manager Theo Epstein has done in 2009 in to stockpile arms for every inning after the fifth, which should allow the Sox to match up with any relief corps in the game.

And so, to answer your question, Mrs. Little:

At the moment, the bullpen looks very, very good.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Sixty players, five fields, seven days. No wonder Brad Mills carries around a computer-printed itinerary that looks as busy as a menu from The Cheesecake Factory.

The Red Sox conducted their first full workout of 2009 today at the team's minor league complex, players shuttling to and from stations like commuters changing trains at North Station. And while the buck ultimately stops with manager Terry Francona, the responsibility of running spring training actually falls on Mills, the Sox' bench coach and Francona's trusted right-hand man.

"It really works. He spends a lot of time organizing the day and it frees me up to do a lot of things I wouldn't otherwise be able to do," Francona said. "There was energy and it was organized because of the way he runs it. I love the way our camp is run."

Confused? Don't be. In the major leagues, the responsibility of running spring training often falls on someone other than the skipper, who has other priorities, responsibilities, and objectives. In Francona's case, that means taking the time to speak with new players, build relationships, gain the trust that is critical to any good team and any good clubhouse.

When Francona assumed control of the Sox before the 2004 season, he said that one of his priorities of his first spring training was to begin building the relationships that would solidify his clubhouse.

Clearly, he is not about to change his philosophy now.

For Mills, this is his sixth year as the Sox' spring training choreographer, a responsibility far more complicated than it sounds. During the week before Christmas and New Year's Day, Mills touches base with each member of the coaching staff and instructs them to start thinking about their needs for the spring. A couple of weeks later, he has a more detailed discussion with each coach. Pitching coach John Farrell and hitting coach Dave Magadan will break down their disciples into smaller groups, for instance, so that Mills has all the information he needs to start making blueprints for the early days at camp.

Today, Mills arrived at the team's spring complex at about 5:30 a.m., when he began his daily morning workout with a 45-minute stint on the exercise bike. By 7 a.m., he was out of the workout room and touching base with coaches to inquire about any individual needs for the day. At 8 a.m., Mills ran an approximately 20-minute staff meeting that included Francona, who, like the others, received an itinerary detailed down to the minute.

Shortly thereafter, the Red Sox took the field and worked out for just shy of two hours, pitchers scurrying from fielding drills to the bullpens to conditioning drills while positional players worked on their fielding, hitting, and agility. What could be a chaotic fire drill instead goes off like a refined training exercise -- which, of course, is precisely what it is supposed to be.

"We try to do this camp the best we can,'' said Mills, who is quite understated. "It's not my camp. It's our camp.''

Indeed, for all of the jokes that have existed about spring training -- many regard the term as something of an oxymoron -- the Red Sox have precise objectives. Mills began today's workout by overseeing pitchers' fielding practice (the dreaded PFP) and the focus tomorrow will be on pickoff plays. The Sox will have an abbreviated workout Friday because of their annual participation in a local charity golf tournament, but their fundamental focus Saturday will be on bunt defenses.

Between now and next week, when the Sox open their spring schedule, workouts will include offense, defense, and at least one area of fundamentals.

"We try to cover everything we can to get ready for the season without reinventing the wheel. I don't think the players like [over-analysis],'' Francona said. "You have a limited number of days down here, so you try to get the most of them.''

And then, even after the games begin, the Sox try to leave no stone unturned.

For example: Next month, after the Sox have moved to City of Palms Park, the club already has earmarked two days (March 6 and 27) to work on what Mills described as "outfield communication,'' a request made by third base coach DeMarlo Hale, who also coaches the outfielders. On those days, Hale wants use of the entire back field at the team's stadium, meaning that Sox hitters and pitchers will have to find other places to do their usual work.

The object of those drills? To prevent outfield collisions and defensive breakdowns during the regular season. Hale will stand at home plate and hit balls into the gap, requiring the center fielder to communicate with an adjacent fielder in left field or in right, all in hopes of refining the communication skills between the players.

Beyond that, there are other matters to consider as the Sox put in things like bunt plays and cutoffs, depending on the skills of the players involved.

Again, an example: Because both Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo could be playing shortstop this season -- even though Lowrie is the probable starter -- the Sox need to put in bunt plays that take into account the skills of each. Though Lugo is faster and can cover more ground, any plays must also work for Lowrie, who is a little slower but more sure-handed. It is Mills's responsibility to incorporate all of those issues based on the feedback from the manager and his fellow coaches.

Because the season is so long, the Sox need to do as much groundwork as possible now, which is why Mills will conclude each workout over the next week by sitting with his fellow coaches at lunch, where they plan the next day.

"We run our camp our certain way for a reason,'' said Francona. "And we like the way it's done."

For Brad Mills, at this time of year, that is the supreme compliment.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In the Boston clubhouse now, from first base to third and left field to right, the feeling is indisputable. There's a lot of glove in this room.

"The defense is not insignificant," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said today as the Sox continued spring training workouts at their minor league complex. "It's pretty darn important."

Maybe in 2009 more than ever before.

The Red Sox project to be a less potent offensive club this year, their first since 2000 without any contribution from Manny Ramirez. The good news is that Manny Magoo won't be playing left field anymore, either. Add in the probability that Jed Lowrie will be the team's starting shortstop, and what we could see, from start to finish, is one of the best defensive Red Sox clubs of all-time.

Last year, after Lowrie replaced Julio Lugo at shortstop, the improvement in the Red Sox' defense was considerable. Through July 11, when Lugo served as the starter, the Sox ranked ninth in the league in fielding percentage. From that point forward, after Lowrie took over, the Sox ranked first. After the trading deadline, when the Sox effectively swapped Ramirez for Jason Bay, the Red Sox had an average or above-average defender at every position on the diamond.

Here is how the Red Sox defense potentially shapes up this season:

• In the infield, the Sox will have players who have won at least one Gold Glove at catcher (Jason Varitek), first base (Kevin Youkilis), second base (Dustin Pedroia) and third (Mike Lowell).
• Their shortstop (Lowrie) and center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury) will take the field on Opening Day without ever having committed an error at their positions in a regular season major league game.
• To round it out, their left fielder (Jason Bay) and right fielder (J.D. Drew) are fundamentally sound defenders.
• On the bench they have backups like Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay, both of whom are regarded as above-average defensive players.

"I think that can be a strength," Sox manager Terry Francona said when asked about the defense. "I think Ellsbury in center field grew last year into being a pretty good defender. I think that'll only get better as he learns the league and gains confidence. It's something we talked about today. Go around the outfield, J.D. and Bay are both good. Rocco is very good. Youk and Pedey are Gold Glove-caliber. Lowell's Gold Globe-caliber. And we think our catcher's really good.

"We have the makings of a very good defensive team and it's something that's maybe more important to us now than maybe it was a few years ago. ... As long as we win, that's what we're shooting for. But there's different ways to do it. There's a cumulative effect on a pitching staff, when you're catching the ball and it ends up where it's supposed to."

All of this brings us back to Epstein, whose stint as GM began during the offseason preceding the 2003 season. Since that time, the Red Sox have scored more runs than any other team in baseball. Yet for as much credit as Epstein has received in building the most prolific offense in baseball, he has received relatively little credit for building a club that has been among baseball's best defensive units over the last three years.

Over that span, beginning in 2006, the Red Sox have finished first, second and third in the American League in fielding percentage. The 2006 club that featured Alex Gonzalez at shortstop set club records for fewest errors (66), highest fielding percentage (.989) and most errorless games (106). The Sox now could be very much in the same class, though the club refrains from evaluating its capability in traditional ways.

Example: Let's say 10 balls each are hit to Lugo and Lowrie. The former gets to all 10 and makes one error, producing nine outs and a fielding percentage of .900. The latter gets to only nine and handles them all cleanly. Though Lowrie's fielding percentage would be 1.000, Epstein would view them as equals based on the fact that each produced nine outs in 10 chances.

"Basically, what we're trying to measure is how often fielders' chances turn into outs," Epstein said. "As a whole, our teams have been good about turning balls in play into outs and that's an important part of run prevention, which makes it important in terms of winning."

With that in mind, it's important to understand how the Red Sox view roster construction and, for lack of a better word, team building. In the mind of Epstein and his baseball operations staff, the game is split into two primary areas: run production and run prevention. Every general skill falls under one of those two branches. With regard to run production, the most important fundamental areas are hitting and baserunning; with regard to run prevention, the two most fundamental areas are pitching and defense. Ultimately, the goal is find a combination of those skills that produces a positive result in each branch.

Last year, for example, speed was a greater part of the Boston offense than in years past, helping to explain why the Sox finished second in the league in runs scored. Relative to 2006, the 2008 Sox hit 19 fewer homers; just the same, they scored 25 more runs. If the offense drops again this year, as many expect, the Sox may benefit greatly from the combination of a deep pitching staff and surehanded defense that should limit scoring opportunities for the opposition.

Maybe that helps explain why Epstein seems more optimistic about this team than some others.

"I think a lot of people believe that pitching is 90 percent of the game and I don't believe that," Epstein said. "I think the game is 50 percent run production and 50 percent run prevention."

With regard to the latter, the Red Sox this season could prove quite stingy, particularly given the potential depth of their pitching staff. Generally speaking, good pitchers record strikeouts or induce poorly hit balls. The poorer the contact, the more likely an out, especially for a skilled defensive team. With regard to run prevention, the 2009 Sox seem to have almost everything going for them, from power arms to sure-handed fielders, even if there is some concern about Lowell's mobility at third base in the wake of offseason hip surgery and Drew's ongoing back issues.

But assuming health, the pitchers and fielders on this club should work quite well together, which could produce a very different brand of baseball.

"It's huge," said Francona. "When you're giving an extra out, you're going to lead to some problems -- not only on the scoreboard, but with extra pitches with the pitching staff and frustration. I would think if I'm a pitcher and they put it in play, [and if] I know our guys going to catch it, that's a good feeling."

On paper, at least, the 2009 Sox will catch it.

At this stage, that's one thing we all should be able to count on.

Tony Massarotti checked in from sunny Fort Myers, Fla. today and answered your questions about the Red Sox. Click the replay button below for the full Q&A:

Tony Massarotti held a brief chat immediately following Alex Rodriguez's press conference this afternoon, during which he shared his opinions on A-Rod's comments and answered your questions. Hit the replay button below to view the Q&A session ...

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In Jason Varitek's world, left is left and right is right. And at this stage, to choose one over the other would be terribly, terribly wrong.

"Oh my goodness. Hell, no,'' Varitek said this morning when asked if he ever has considered batting solely righthanded. "Have you ever all of a sudden tried to hit right-on-right when you haven't done it in 15 years? . . . I've heard that offered a few different times whether [it was suggested] in the media or whatever, but it's ludicrous."

Ludicrous, he says.

Or maybe it's just stubbornness.

Whatever the case, the captain of the Red Sox entered the big leagues as a switch-hitter and he plans to go out as one, no matter what the numbers say. He simply does not believe in any other way. Varitek batted .201 from the left side last season and .284 from the right, and the difference in his productivity was so apparent -- an .863 OPS from the right, a .616 OPS from the left -- that he looked more like a platoon player than the man who has caught more games than anyone else in Red Sox history.

So what did Varitek do about it during the offseason? He worked at it. He started hitting a little earlier than usual and he came into camp looking so fit that manager Terry Francona suggested Varitek was as sturdy as "a wall.'' His mind similarly sharpened, Varitek fully intends to go back to doing precisely what he did before last season, when he batted a worrisome .187 after May 21.

Whether Varitek can return to previous levels is open to serious debate at this stage of his career -- he'll be 37 in April -- but that is hardly the point, at least for today. If you expected Varitek to come into camp this spring with an entirely new philosophy or approach, you clearly do not know the man who has been with the club longer than any active Sox player but Tim Wakefield.

Varitek is not stubborn; he is beyond stubborn. That is one of the primary reasons he holds the captaincy. Over the last 12 years, when the Red Sox have labored through the inevitable struggles of every season, Varitek has provided indisputable stability. How many times has he sat in front of his locker and said that the Red Sox merely had to keep working? How many times has he said that they just have to focus on themselves and avoid worrying about anyone else? How many times has he stressed the mental over the physical when others have started to crack?

Say what you want about the man.

Maybe Varitek can't hit anymore.

But he's never been the panicking type.

"I don't think it's that easy,'' manager Terry Francona said after shaking his head when asked if the club ever considering approaching Varitek about becoming a full-time righthanded hitter. "I agree that his hitting from the right side is easier for him to maintain. But that said, he's 36 years old and he's had the ball coming in to him [when batting from both sides] his whole life. It's not that easy. If it was, I'm sure he would do it.''

And even then, he might not.

As observers, of course, we always want it to be perfect. Dustin Pedroia does not have the size or body of a typical professional athlete, but he probably wouldn't be the same player if he did. Part of the reason Pedroia is the reigning American League Most Valuable Player is because he has a chip on his shoulder so big that it must be checked at the baggage counter. The last smallish man to tote around such luggage in the Red Sox clubhouse was Pedro Martinez, and we know where he ranks in stature among the all-time greats.

Understand? Give a man too much raw ability and he lacks the desire and heart. Give him below-average size or skill and he develops an unrelenting work ethic or competitiveness. Give him enough of everything and he becomes an organizational stalwart, which is what Pedroia is now and Martinez was then.

Varitek, interestingly, has been a little of everything during his big league career, simultaneously a patchwork quilt and a down comforter. On the one hand, he is a two-time first-round draft selection; on the other, he had to grind his way to success after a minor league career that made him look like a bust. On the one hand, he is a naturally gifted hitter from the right side with a short, powerful swing; on the other, he is a robotic hitter from the left side with a swing that often gets long, loopy and downright slow.

On the one hand, the game comes easily to him.

On the other, it is an interminable struggle.

Almost certainly, Varitek's best days are well behind him. Though he is not likely to admit it to anyone -- including himself -- he probably knows this. He doesn't throw as well as he used to, either. But if you're wondering why Varitek doesn't boycott the lefthanded batter's box entirely and commit to becoming a full-time righthanded hitter, remember that the stubbornness is what got him here. Without that, you don't get the fight against Alex Rodriguez in 2004 or the return from knee surgery in 2006, and you certainly don't get the resolve, leadership and self-sacrifice.

Instances like this are when the fantasy world of sports collides with reality.

Unfortunately, we have to take the bad with the good.

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In Boston now, we speak of October as if it is a birthright. The idea this year, for example, is to get John Smoltz ready for October, as if it were a forgone conclusion that the Red Sox will be playing meaningful games during the 10th month that serves as the 11th hour in every baseball season.

This brings us to Josh Beckett, the ace of the Red Sox staff and a man generally who has thrived in October, at least until last year, when an injury stripped him of most all weaponry. As such, for Beckett, this year is not solely about October anymore. It is about reclaiming the form he demonstrated in 2007, when he was baseball’s only 20-game winner, when he was the concrete piling on which the entire Red Sox pitching staff was built.

Beckett may not want to hear this but he has something to prove this year, even if he continues to hold himself to a higher standard than anyone else.

"I do think that, last year, Josh paid the price for pitching deep into the season the year before,’’ Sox manager Terry Francona said today at the Red Sox’ minor league complex, where the pitchers and catchers had their second day of organized workouts. "He came into camp and he was just a click behind where he was [in 2007]."

By October, as it turned out, Beckett was several clicks behind, most notably on the radar gun, where his fastball had lost considerable velocity thanks to a strained right oblique he suffered during the final days of the regular season. Overnight, one of baseball's most accomplished postseason pitchers turned into a virtual punching bag, posting an 8.79 ERA in three playoff starts covering 14 1/3 innings. Along the way, it was difficult to choose the more improbable happening: that Beckett continued to take the mound or that the Red Sox nearly reached the World Series anyway.

In retrospect, if the former speaks to Beckett’s competitiveness, the latter speaks to the depth and character of the Boston clubhouse last fall, particularly in the absence of Mike Lowell (hip) and with David Ortiz (wrist) functioning at something less than full capacity. This spring, with only a few tweaks, the Boston roster returns intact. The nucleus of the Red Sox’ rotation, bullpen and lineup generally remain the same, which suggests that the Red Sox are fully capable of doing everything they did a year ago.

As for Beckett, all of a sudden, we can’t be so sure. Beckett now has been a member of the Red Sox for three seasons -- one good, one bad, one somewhere in between. Beckett’s talent is indisputable and his work ethic, makeup and ability to perform under pressure are absolute. But what most makes great players great is the ability to consistently perform at a high level, from April through October, with only brief stops at rest areas.

Last October, the problem was obvious -- "You just don’t have explosiveness," Beckett said of the effect of his injury -- but this isn’t solely about last October now.

As things stand, Beckett has one year and $10 million remaining on a three-year, $30 million contract extension he signed with the Sox during the 2006 season, though the club does hold a $12 million option for 2010. Beckett today declined to address anything as it pertained to his future with the team -- "That’s not my [style]," he said -- though we must now begin wondering to what lengths, if any, the Red Sox will go to keep him in a Boston uniform.

Remember: the trade for Beckett was executed during general manager Theo Epstein’s hiatus in the fall of 2005, though Epstein did sign Beckett to the $30 million extension less than a year later. This May 15, Beckett will turn 29. That means he will be 30 (or approaching it) the next time he ventures into free agency -- most likely in 2010 -- and we all know how the Red Sox feel about investing big dollars in free-agent pitchers, particularly ones in their 30s.

Between now and then, the question is whether Beckett makes the decision easy or difficult, the latter of which seems more likely. But really, how do we know at this stage? When you get right down to it, Beckett (48-28, 4.11 ERA, 524 strikeouts in 579-2/3 innings) and A.J. Burnett (38-26, 3.94 ERA, 525 strikeouts in 522-2/3 innings) have reasonably comparable totals during their three years in the American League, which raises the obvious question:

Today, if you had it to do over again, would you rather have had Burnett and Hanley Ramirez for the last three years, or Beckett and Mike Lowell?

Given the Red Sox’ success over the last two seasons, in particular, most of us still would opt for the latter tandem, but that is hardly the point. The discussion simply is not as one-sided as it was a year ago at this time. And despite Lowell’s physical difficulties at the end of last season, the biggest reason for that is still Beckett, who is the type of talent that can almost single-handedly alter a season, particularly in, you know, October.

Last year, despite Beckett’s parade of nagging ailments and physical problems, the Red Sox reached Game 7 of the ALCS before losing to the Tampa Bay Rays. Since that time, in retrospect, we seem to have learned two things. One is that the Red Sox could reach Game 7 of the ALCS without a dominating Josh Beckett thanks largely to the development of Jon Lester. The other is that the AL East is now a considerably more challenging division with the emergence of the Rays and the reconstruction of the New York Yankees, the latter of whom invested nearly a half-billion dollars in their very own stimulus package.

This year and beyond, then, we’re likely to find out something else, too.

We’re likely to find out just how much the Red Sox really need Josh Beckett.

So now we have it, the Great American Scandal. Alex Rodriguez meets Steroids. Finally, we have an intersection of our soap operatic A-Rod obsession and the plague that infected our national pastime.

Here’s how we should know that we’ve had enough:

Some of us are starting to feel compassion for him.

Don’t know about the rest of you folks, but some of us out here have long since run out of outrage. It was long taken by everyone from Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Now into the mix comes Rodriguez, a prototype for the psychologically and emotionally damaged megastar whose existence has played out before the American public like the life of Jim Carrey in "The Truman Show."

A-Rod took off his shirt in Central Park. A-Rod traipsed around Toronto with an exotic dancer. A-Rod is nesting with Madonna. A-Rod saw a shrink. A-Rod choked under pressure and was mocked by his teammates. (Just ask Joe Torre.)

And now, A-Rod reportedly used steroids.

Say hello to A-Roid.

For the moment, here’s the biggest problem: There reportedly were 103 other names on that list. Who are the others? Why don’t we know? Is it even remotely possible that Rodriguez’s name appears on a list with 103 utility men and bit players, that he is the only notable presence among a cast of extras and stand-ins?

Or has it reached the point now that we get to pick and choose whom we decide to smear, deconstruct and castigate?

But then, we probably reached that point long ago.

Before anyone jumps to conclusions, nobody is suggesting that Rodriguez is innocent here. That’s not the point. But he’s not even close to being alone. Had the Boston Globe or New York Times or ESPN received the same information that Sports Illustrated received about Rodriguez failing a drug test during the 2003 season, we all would have printed it out of professional obligation. At the same time, we cannot help but wonder why certain sources selected Rodriguez’s name from a list of 104 and streamlined it to the nation when 103 others effectively were ignored.

Why, because Rodriguez is generally better than everyone else? Because he has the most to lose? Because he is an easy target? Because neither he nor anyone else has proven capable of defending him?

With regard to the steroid users in baseball during those carefree years of the late 1990s and early 2000s, let’s not delude ourselves. The game was so severely tainted that everyone is guilty now. Any by everyone, we mean everyone. If anyone out there is still has an image of what the typical steroid user looks like, here’s a tip: destroy it. It means nothing. Former Red Sox infielder Manny Alexander had a syringe in the glove compartment of his car, for goodness sake, and Alexander was a 5-foot-10, 165-pound stick figure who couldn’t hit the ground if he jumped out a window.

So really, who else was on that list? Derek Jeter? Greg Maddux? Randy Johnson or David Eckstein? None of those players has the body of a suspected steroids user (whatever that is), but it makes the entire issue much easier to comprehend and rationalize if we can at least identify some of the good guys.

Here in Boston, save for the affair involving Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, we have been surprisingly immune from performance-enhancing crimes in the world of professional sports. (Harrison served a four-game suspension in 2007 after admitting that he used human growth hormone.) Even then, more than a few Englanders defended Harrison’s actions by suggesting he was merely trying to recover from an injury so that he return to the field more quickly, apologists turning a blind eye to the sins of their own.

As for any transgressions that have taken place at Fenway Park, let’s not fool ourselves. There must have been at least some deceit. When Major League Baseball released the Mitchell Report late in 2007, details included an e-mail from Theo Epstein concerning the possible steroid use of reliever Eric Gagne -- the Sox made a trade for Gagne anyway -- and a photocopy of a personal check written in 2001 by former Sox first baseman Mo Vaughn to known steroids dealer and former New York Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski. Vaughn declined to speak to Mitchell, and so we can only wonder if Vaughn was using performance enhancers during the 1995 and 1996 seasons, his peak years in Boston, which included one Most Valuable Player Award (1995).

In 2003, the year of Rodriguez’s alleged steroid use, Rodriguez won the MVP. It was after that season that the Red Sox tried to trade for him. The results of testing conducted that season were intended to remain anonymous and were for the singular purpose of implementing a new testing policy. According to the SI report, a total of 1,198 players were tested, meaning that 8.8 percent were caught using some form of illegal substance.

Know what 8.8 percent translates into? About two players per 25-man roster, about 3.5 players per 40-man. Keep that in mind before arguing that the Red Sox took the field with a cast of altar boys.

All of that brings us back to Rodriguez, who became public enemy No. 1 in Boston the moment he ended up in New York on Feb. 16, 2004, almost five years ago to the day. Locally, there is now more reason to jeer him than ever before. For Rodriguez, the good news is that unlike Clemens, Bonds, Miguel Tejada or, effectively, McGwire, he is not alleged to have lied under oath. He is just the most talented and/or accomplished player to have allegedly succumbed to his insecurities during an era that was badly out of control.

So it appears Alex Rodriguez used steroids, too.

But he had lots of company.

Think we’ll ever get the entire guest list?

Tony Massarotti answered your questions about Red Sox spring training, the Patriots offseason, and more in Tuesday's chat. Click the replay button below to see what he had to say, and come back next Wednesday at noon for Tony's next chat from sunny Fort Myers, Fla.

If you’re Jason Varitek, all that remains at this moment are degrees of unhappiness. One way or another, you’re not coming out of this satisfied. The only real question concerns the object of your frustration.

Your employers?

Or your agent?

Eleven-and-a-half seasons after he first put on a Boston uniform, Varitek now faces a Friday deadline to accept or decline the Red Sox’ latest offer. According to a baseball source, the club last week presented Varitek with two choices: a straight one-year, $5 million contract that will allow the player to become a free agent again next season; or a one-year, $5 million deal that includes a dual option for 2010.

If the Red Sox exercise that option after the season, Varitek would earn another $5 million in 2010.

If the Sox do not, Varitek then has the option of returning for $3 million.

Certainly, these are frustrating times for the Red Sox captain, who currently seems to be enduring more than any one person should. Following a season during which he broke up with his wife, Varitek now is seeing his relationship with the Sox suffer as well. The latter is all that should really matter to those invested in the public trust that the Red Sox have long since become, and it raises questions as to precisely what (if anything) went wrong during what has been a seemingly interminable winter-long negotiation.

Let’s start at the most obvious point: Varitek batted .220 last year, a mere .187 after May 21. For a soon-to-be 37-year-old entering free agency in the midst of a historic economic crisis, numbers like .220 and .187 leave you with few (if any) assets to leverage against. Bernard Madoff had more currency to deal with than Varitek did, and we all know where he ended up.

All of this brings us to superagent Scott Boras, who tried mightily to drum up a market for Varitek by citing things like the player’s leadership and "winnability,’’ the latter of which further stressed the catcher's considerable intangibles. Those same skills are why teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers expressed some interest in the player, right up until the Red Sox ensured themselves of a compensatory first-round draft selection from any club that signed Varitek by offering him salary arbitration.

At that moment, Varitek and Boras had two choices:

• First, they could accept arbitration, thereby assuring Varitek of a 2009 salary in the vicinity $10 million, essentially his earnings last year;
• Second, they could turn down arbitration and roll the dice in a market that, as it turns out, was heading into a nosedive.

Clearly, they chose poorly.

In recent days, arguments have been made that arbitration might have resulted in a non-guaranteed contract for the player, a technical truth. The real question is whether it ever would have come to that. Sox general manager Theo Epstein never has taken a player to arbitration during his tenure, and it seems highly unlikely that he would alter that course to go through a distasteful process with the team captain. The far more likely scenario is that Varitek would have agreed to a guaranteed contract worth more than $5 million, meaning the player lost money the day he passed on arbitration.

In the end, after all, an agent’s job is to understand the market and maximize his player’s value, something Boras generally has done with extraordinary success during his career. But the agent certainly seems to have erred on this one -- and that is putting it kindly -- which is why there is now a great deal of spin taking place on all fronts.

Funny, isn’t it?

During the Mark Teixeira negotiations, Boston owner John Henry fired off a missive in which he all but accused Boras of bluffing, sealing any chance at a Red Sox deal and effectively handing Teixeira to the Yankees. The Red Sox whiffed badly.

Now, Boras looks like the one who missed the boat, leading to criticism of the manner in which he handled a negotiation.

As for the Red Sox, the $5 million offer to Varitek might have been perceived as a slap in the face under far different circumstances. That all changed the day baseball long ago became a business, and it changed again -- with regard to this particular negotiation -- the moment that longtime Yankees lefthander Andy Pettitte ended up with a guaranteed $5.5 million salary for 2009 after seeking as much as $16 million (his salary last year) and turning down $10 million (New York’s initial offer this offseason).

In that way, Pettitte’s agents, the Hendricks brothers, made the same mistake Boras did.

For a moment, purely for effect, let’s imagine the opposite of this scenario -- a market in which Varitek’s value went up after turning down arbitration. Out of the goodness of their hearts, would Varitek and Boras now give the Red Sox the benefit of the doubt? (Varitek might. The agent? Not so much.) The bottom line is that baseball is business and business is baseball, and the Red Sox now have much of the leverage, despite the fact that they still do not have a starting catcher.

For his good, Varitek should take the $5 million from the Red Sox and get on with his preparations for the 2009 season because he isn’t going to get more from anyone else at this stage.

Between now and next fall, when Varitek might be a free agent again, Boras should explore ways to make up the lost earnings for his client, who deserved far better in all of this than he got.

From a business standpoint, pending the outcome of the Jason Varitek negotiations, what the Red Sox have done this offseason is to further diversify their portfolio. The $20-million man is gone from the team payroll, but the upper-middle class has grown.

RED SOX SALARY SNAPSHOT: In baseball, like in others businesses, there are countless ways to calculate expenditures. For the purpose of calculating baseball's luxury tax -- otherwise known as the collective bargaining tax (CBT) -- the value of a player's salary is determined by the average annual value of his contract. For example: While Jason Bay is due to earn $7.5 million this season, he counts just $4,562,000 against the salary "cap" because he is in the final year of a four-year, $18.25 million contract worth $4.562 million per season. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia will count for $6.75 million this year (and every year through 2014) even though the Sox actually will pay him a base salary of just $1.5 million because of his new six-year, $40.5 million contract. With that in mind, here is the projected Red Sox payroll for 2009, taking into account that Jason Varitek still might sign and that all clubs must pay $10 million-$12 million -- let's call it $11 million for the sake of easy bookkeeping -- for player benefits: Player 2009 Salary J.D. Drew $14,000,000 David Ortiz $13,000,000 Mike Lowell $12,500,000 Kevin Youkilis $10,281,250 Josh Beckett $10,000,000 Julio Lugo $9,000,000 Daisuke Matsuzaka $8,666,666 Dustin Pedroia $6,750,000 Jonathan Papelbon $6,250,000 John Smoltz $5,500,000 Brad Penny $5,000,000 Jason Bay $4,562,500 Tim Wakefield $4,000,000 Hideki Okajima $1,750,000 Josh Bard $1,700,000 Mark Kotsay $1,500,000 Takashi Saito $1,500,000 Javier Lopez $1,350,000 Junichi Tazawa $1,100,000 * Jon Lester $650,000 * Manny Delcarmen $600,000 Rocco Baldelli $500,000 * Ramon Ramirez $500,000 * Jacoby Ellsbury $500,000 * Justin Masterson $450,000 * Jed Lowrie $425,000 * Dusty Brown $400,000   Subtotal $122,435,416 Balance of 40-man $2,500,000 Benefits $11,000,000   Total $135,935,416 * - Estimated because precise salary has yet to be determined.

For the moment, the Red Sox have a projected Opening Day payroll somewhere in the range of $135 million, a figure that includes the average annual salary of all existing contracts and the approximate $11 million the Sox and all other clubs must play for annual player benefits. (This is the general formula used to calculate the collective bargaining tax, known as the CBT or "luxury" tax.) That is $10 million-$15 million lower than where the Sox began last season ($150 million) and $20 million-$30 million lower than where the Sox finished the championship season of 2007 (closer to $165 million).

But before you lament the fact that the payroll has gone down, remember these things:

First, of that $20 million-$30 million margin from two years ago, the large majority might have gone to Mark Teixeira, and some could still end up in the hands of Varitek.

Second, the Sox now possess great flexibility to add talent both during this season and after it, barring some unknown circumstance concerning the financial health of owner John Henry. Whatever the Sox failed to spend this winter is more that they can spend later.

In the interim, here are a few other things you should know:

• Though the Sox still owe some deferred money to Manny Ramirez, they effectively have wiped his average annual $20-million salary (since 2001) from their books. The large majority of this money was used in the contracts for Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jonathan Papelbon, whose combined salaries in 2008 were roughly $4 million. In 2009, Pedroia, Youkilis and Papelbon will be on the books (again, by the CBT formula) for more than $23 million, a colossal increase.

  In Pedroia’s case, while he will earn a base salary of just $1.5 million this year (after receiving a $1.5 million signing bonus), the average value of his contract rests at $6.75 million because the deal is back-loaded. This gives the Sox the benefit of some cash flow now, though they will lose that flexibility with Pedroia later in the deal.

• The luxury-tax threshold for 2009 rests at $162 million, giving the Sox ample room to add players during the season and still avoid the tax. That number is up from the $155 million threshold last season, a number the Sox did not eclipse. While some estimates have placed the Sox’ final payroll at roughly $148 million last season, others have pushed it closer to the $155 million. The one thing we know for certain is that the Sox did not exceed that number since they were not required to pay the tax.
• Had the Sox signed Teixeira for an average of roughly $21 million a year, they still would have been in the market for pitching help, be it in the form of John Smoltz (who eventually got $5.5 million from the Sox, plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($5 million, also plus incentives), or Derek Lowe (who received four years and $60 million from the Atlanta Braves). Had the Sox signed Teixeira, their interest in Lowe actually would have been greater because the compensatory draft selection for Lowe would have been only a second-rounder, since they would have given up the first-rounder for Teixeira.

  However, once Teixeira ended up with the New York Yankees, the Sox had a hard time justifying (to themselves) the forfeiture of a first-round draft pick for Lowe, who might have been willing to accept a three-year deal to play in Boston over a four-year proposal from the Braves.

• For accounting purposes, Jason Bay is a bargain. Though the Sox will pay Bay a $7.5 million base salary in 2009, he counts for only $4,562,500 against their CBT payroll because he is in the final year of a four-year, $18.25 million contract.
• Two years ago, when the Sox had Eric Hinske on their roster, Hinske’s base salary was $5.625 million. However, because Hinske was in the final year of a five-year, $14.75 million contract, his CBT for the Sox’ purposes was a mere $2.95 million. Because the Sox got slightly more than $2.8 million from the Toronto Blue Jays under the terms of the trade in which they acquired Hinske, the Sox effectively were able to carry him on their roster for what amounted to nothing by accounting standards.

  As one Sox official noted at the time, "He’s basically a free player for us."

• Finally, the Red Sox are out from under that four-year, $40 million contract they granted Edgar Renteria following the 2004 season. The were obligated to $3.67 million of Renteria’s salary per year, through last season, after which the player became a free agent. As a result, Renteria is no longer on the Boston payroll.

Twenty-seven days to go until pitchers and catchers report. Suddenly, one cannot help but wonder if the Red Sox need Jason Varitek now more than they did a month ago.

And judging by the newsflash that owner John Henry is flying to Atlanta tonight to meet with the free-agent catcher, perhaps the Red Sox are wondering that as well.

If pitching is to be the strength of this team, after all, wouldn’t it make more sense to have an experienced catcher?

"We’d like to make another move before spring training, if we can," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said earlier this week when discussing the team’s catching plans. "We’d like to add another name to that mix, but we’ll see."

Meanwhile, we wait for word of the details of the Henry/Varitek summit. And we wonder if anything at all regarding this offseason stalemate was settled.

By now, we all know the options as the Red Sox continue their search for a starting catcher. This winter, in this baseball corner of the nation, the names of Miguel Montero and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have been bandied about more than Deval Patrick and Tom Menino. At the moment, there is no indication that the Sox are close to a deal with either the Arizona Diamondbacks (for Montero) or the Texas Rangers (for Saltalamacchia), though each club is an obvious fit if and when the Sox want to pay the corresponding price.

Meanwhile, Varitek sits and waits, seemingly devoid of any other real options. You can't help but wonder tonight's meeting might lead to a conclusion to this high-stakes game of chicken.

Today, with the benefit of hindsight, the Red Sox’ offseason priorities now seem clear. The Sox wanted Mark Teixeira. When that plan dissolved, they instead opted for a series of low-risk, high-reward signings that included everyone from John Smoltz and Brad Penny to Takashi Saito and Mark Kotsay. What the Red Sox appear to have now, on paper, is a team that should truly excel in the areas of pitching and defense (never a bad thing) while possessing at least some questions about their offensive potency.

Will they be bad offensive team? No. But they might not be an elite offensive club anymore, either.

At the moment, the only glaring deficiency is behind the plate, where the Red Sox have a trio of catchers that includes Josh Bard, Dusty Brown, and George Kottaras. As much as Epstein continues to say that the Sox are prepared to go to camp with that group, his nose is beginning to look suspiciously longer. We can call it angling, lying, or posturing, but the Red Sox seem to have far too much invested in this team -- particularly with regard to their pitching -- to entrust the day-to-day responsibilities of staff management to an on-the-job trainee.

Really, do you want Josh Beckett looking in for signs with the seeds of doubt planted in the back of his mind? Do you want Smoltz peering in and wondering if the catcher knows what he’s doing? Do you want Justin Masterson or Manny Delcarmen throwing with any uncertainty at those moments of the game when everything might be on the line?

In recent years, the art of a calling a game has taken on absurd proportions in Boston, with Varitek being praised so endlessly that it sometimes has seemed as if there isn’t another capable receiver on the planet. That’s not the issue. The point is that the Red Sox, as presently constituted, have a need for a veteran catcher skilled on the finer points of the game, and there happens to be a free agent out there with those qualifications -- in addition to a considerable history with many of the Boston pitchers.

On too many levels now, Varitek makes sense for them. As thorough and detailed as he is, Epstein knows that as well as anyone. The question is what, if anything, stands in the way of a deal? Perhaps Henry will find out tonight.

Barring an unforeseen development that lands Varitek somewhere else on a multi-year contract, serious questions must be asked about the manner in which Varitek's agent, Scott Boras, has handled the negotiations. In retrospect, the moment the Sox offered Varitek salary arbitration, they backed him into a corner because they increased the price for any other club by tacking on a compensatory first-round pick. The moment that Boras rejected the offer, Varitek passed on a 2009 salary of, say, $10 million-$12 million, which is far more than he will now get on the open market from anyone, including Boston.

Had Varitek accepted arbitration and had a reasonably productive season -- we’re talking about a .245 average, 10-12 homers and 55 RBIs here -- he might have hit the market again this November and found a multi-year deal somewhere. As it is, he’s coming off a season during which he batted .220 -- and a mere .187 after May 21 -- and at a time when he’s approaching his 37th birthday (April 11) with 1,210 games caught.

Let’s say you’re running another team: Are you going to commit to a multi-year deal and give up a first-round pick given those realities? Unless you believe Varitek to be the piece that can put you over the top, the answer is no. Presumably, that is the reason Varitek is still out there among a large group of free agents, many of whom are safer investments.

Nonetheless, in the uniformed and non-uniformed corners of the baseball operations department, there never has been any doubt about the strength and depth of Varitek’s intangible skills, beginning with his leadership in the clubhouse and on the field. (At the moment, the latter is far more valuable.) After all the compliments the Red Sox have paid their captain over the years, they cannot kiss off his potential departure by saying those assets were overvalued. That seems especially true now, when those skills seem to be Varitek’s biggest bargaining chip.

Eleven years ago at this time, when the Sox added Pedro Martinez, one of the biggest questions concerned the inexperience of Boston catchers, then the tandem of Varitek and Scott Hatteberg. The Sox won 92 games and claimed the American League wild card spot. What many forget is that those Sox frequently called pitches from the bench -- pitching coach Joe Kerrigan would relay the signs from the dugout -- and that the Sox had a top-heavy staff built around one of the greatest pitchers of all-time during the peak of his career.

Since that time, Varitek has evolved into arguably the second-best Red Sox catcher of all time, taking a back seat to only Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk. Nobody in franchise history (including Fisk) has caught more games. Varitek frequently has spoken of Red Sox pitchers working with "conviction," which was his way of saying they needed to believe in what they were throwing.

What he never said was that he had a big hand in getting them to believe it.

In the best-case scenario, with regard to their catching, the Red Sox would enter this season with Varitek serving as mentor to a younger catcher or apprentice, be it Saltalamacchia, Montero or anyone else. Despite the signing of Josh Bard (non-guaranteed contract), the Sox can still do so because signing Varitek and trading for another catcher are not mutually exclusive. The Sox have the money and prospects to do both, and Varitek’s importance in that scenario has only grown in the wake of Epstein’s recent moves to improve the pitching depth.

During Varitek’s career in Boston, day-to-day preparation always was his greatest strength.

At the moment, it certainly seems as if the Red Sox now have a greater need for that than they do his bat, arm, or glove.

John Smoltz does not feel as though he is leaving Atlanta. What Smoltz feels instead is that he is coming to Boston.

The irony is that this Red Sox organization is now starting to bear at least some resemblance to the Braves of the 1990s.

"I’ll tell you what it reminds me of,’’ Smoltz said this morning at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox formally introduced him as the latest in a series of frugal acquisitions. "They [meaning the Red Sox] always seem to bring in one or two or three young guys, and then they mold them in. They’re not afraid to bring a young guy along. There’s a fine line between bringing along a young guy or rushing him and ruining his development."

Smoltz, on the other hand, is one of the certifiable old guys in baseball, a soon-to-be 42-year-old veteran of 21 major-league seasons. He has started games and closed them, won a Cy Young Award, and missed an entire season to injury. Smoltz has the postseason pedigree of Curt Schilling and the intelligence of Gabe Kapler, the Hall of Fame credentials of Dennis Eckersley and the guts of David Cone or Bret Saberhagen. Put them all together and you have a unique constellation of attributes at an unparalleled time in Red Sox history.

Smoltz and the Red Sox. Who ever imagined it would be a perfect fit? Yet the truth is that the Red Sox of today are more like the Braves than the Braves themselves, which is why Smoltz is here at all.

The Red Sox are gearing up for what will be, at the very least, another season of highly competitive baseball; the Braves are focusing on the goings more than the comings. Already this offseason, the Braves have missed out on, among others, Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett, and Rafael Furcal. Now comes the departure of Smoltz, whose arrival in Boston means not only that Atlanta has been failing to attract players -- the Derek Lowe signing is the exception rather than the rule -- but also failing to retain them.

At roughly this time 14 years ago, when Dan Duquette first took over the Red Sox baseball operation, he said his goal was to make the Red Sox more like the Atlanta Braves. Slightly more than six years ago, when Theo Epstein took control of the Red Sox, he said the same thing. Now the Sox are in the midst of a six-year stretch during which they have qualified for the postseason five times, been to four American League Championship Series and won a pair of world titles, all of which suggests that the Sox finally have succeeded in their goal of becoming baseball’s model franchise.

Like the Braves of the 1990s, the Sox have young talent throughout their major league roster and player development system. Like the Braves, the Sox have money to spend. In Atlanta, the marriage of those two realities propelled the Braves to a stunning 14 consecutive playoff appearances from 1991-2005 -- in '94, there was no postseason -- even if they won only half as many world titles (one) as the Red Sox already have claimed.

"When you’re not in the playoffs, you start watching other teams and you know what makes them tick," Smoltz said. ``Just seeing some of the pieces today reminds me a lot of the Braves of, say, '91-'97.’’

Lest anyone think these Red Sox are perfect, they are not. But then, neither were the Braves. Where the Sox have questions at catcher and shortstop, the Braves often had questions in the bullpen. The perfect baseball team has yet to be built, of course, though strong arguments could be made in recent years for the 1998 New York Yankees and, in Boston, for the Red Sox of late August, September, and October in 2004.

Still, what these Red Sox have in common with those Braves is a balance of experience and youth, something that's easier said than done. The old guys want to play here and the young guys get a chance. The Braves of the early to mid-'90s did not win any Rookie of the Year Awards -- no Atlanta player copped the honor between David Justice (1990) and Furcal (2000) -- though that was partly due to the manner in which the Braves integrated their talent. From 1991-99, the Braves brought in, at one point of the season or another, Mark Wohlers, Ryan Klesko, Javy Lopez, Chipper Jones, Jermaine Dye, and Andruw Jones, among others. Some were late-season callups who already had lost rookie eligibility by the time they played their first full seasons, though the Braves were far more focused on team goals than individual ones.

Now here we are, in early 2009, and the recent Red Sox assembly line is starting to have an Atlanta look. In 2004, we were introduced to Kevin Youkilis. In 2005, Jonathan Papelbon came along. Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia arrived in 2006, Jacoby Ellsbury in late 2007. The most recent campaign delivered righthander Justin Masterson, who stabilized the bullpen and now looks like the Swiss Army knife of manager Terry Francona’s pitching staff.

Now along comes Smoltz, who, as he himself noted, has nothing to prove. Smoltz looks at the Red Sox pitching staff of recent years and suggests that New Englanders are now "spoiled,’’ a phenomenon he knows quite well. The Braves were spoiled to the nth degree, with a staff built around Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. The fact that someone like Smoltz would even consider Boston is a testament to what the Red Sox have become.

After all, we all know what kind of operation John Smoltz comes from.

Outside of the batter’s box as well as in it, Jim Rice generally was unyielding. The embodiment of stubbornness, Rice set his feet and stood his ground. He was the kind of man who dared you to pitch inside, then made you pay if you did.

Now Rice is in the Hall of Fame, after 16 years of playing, five years of waiting, and 15 years of voting. During that time, only Ralph Nader may have run a longer campaign. Rice finally will walk into the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown Sunday, July 26, and maybe it is only fitting that he will do so offering nary a glimpse into a soul that has been tortured for more than a decade.

He simply knows no other way.

"It was a big relief," Rice said Monday in what amounted to his most reflective offering upon learning that he will join Rickey Henderson as the only members of the Cooperstown Class of 2009. "I didn’t have any weight on my shoulders before that, but when I got the call it just seemed like everything kind of fell [into place]."

And so, finally, there is no longer an issue to debate. Rice is a Hall of Famer, no questions asked. He’s in for life. Rice’s 412 votes (76.4 percent) are every bit as good as Henderson’s 511 (94.8 percent) in the ultimate individual question for any player ever to wear a major league uniform.

Was he a Hall of Famer?

Yes, he was.

End of discussion.

Never one to publicize his wants, Rice predictably took Monday's news in his relatively stoic manner. There was gushing, no crying, no unrestrained joy for anyone else to share. If Rice ever was emotional about baseball or anything relating to it -- right down to his Hall of Fame induction -- he has never cared to put it on display. Rice treated baseball like a job -- hence his famous reference to teammates as "associates"-- and he prided himself on maintaining a workmanlike approach.

From 1975-86, when he led the majors in runs batted in, Rice was not merely the most productive hitter in baseball; he was also one of the most versatile. Rice today spoke of his ability to hit the ball to the opposite field and move runners over, which was only part of the story. During that same 12-year span from 1975-86, Rice also hit 73 triples -- can you imagine Manny Ramirez ever running that hard? -- roughly the same number as Robin Yount (77).

On top of it all, Rice was the most durable player in the American League, appearing in more games (an average of slightly more than 147, including one strike year) than any other AL player. Rice played hard and he played hurt, even if he never really bothered to play a game he still refrains from playing now.

"Some of the writers probably said I was arrogant. You know, that wasn’t true," Rice told the MLB Network today in an interview just moments after the voting results were announced. "You want to talk about baseball, I talk about baseball, but I never talked about my teammates. I protected my teammates. I don’t think you should make any excuses when I felt like [as] captain of the ball club, I took a lot of pressure off the guys because some guys could handle pressure, some guys couldn’t handle pressure. I was the type of guy that I got paid to play baseball."

So just who is the real Jim Rice? That is a difficult question to answer. On the one hand, Rice was a longtime terror in the batter’s box; on the other, his career ended too early and abruptly. He was the kind of man who literally would rip the shirt off a reporter’s back and then buy him a new one -- he did this to onetime Globe beat reporter Steve Fainaru -- and he was the kind who would carry a fallen teammate (Jerry Remy) off the field following a serious injury. Once, when a small child was hit by a line drive behind the Red Sox dugout, Rice hoisted the boy out of the seats and carried him down the dugout runway, where the child could most quickly receive medical assistance.

Even as a coach, during a subway ride from Manhattan to the Bronx for a game against the New York Yankees, Rice was much more likely to engage a 12-year-old carrying a skateboard than he was a reporter toting a notepad. The reason? The boy wasn’t a threat. The reporter was.

Whether this all hurt Rice’s candidacy over the years is open to debate, though this much is certain: It did not help. Rice ultimately wanted the voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association to judge him as a ball player, which, ultimately, is precisely what they did.

"I think a lot of the writers that were voting, they never put a uniform on and went out there and played the game and saw how tough it was to accomplish some of the numbers that some of the players [accomplished]," Rice said. "You just take it with a grain of salt because there’s nothing you can do."

Lest this all come off as some suggestion that the Hall of Fame means nothing to Rice, think again. This means everything to him, as it would to any ballplayer who ever has worn a major league uniform. He just isn’t necessarily going to show it as much. Rice mused today that his induction speech would be short and sweet, that he would leave all of the talking to Henderson. As many laughs as the comment drew, it also happened to be true.

In the end, for all of the posturing and politicking that takes place in this day and age, know that Rice did none of it. The man who wanted to get into the Hall of Fame on the merit of his skills of a ballplayer did just that. Rice didn’t lobby for votes, win any popularity contests, or plead his case to the public. He just stood there and waited, as he so often did at the plate, and he ultimately accomplished precisely what he did in the batter’s box.

He didn’t miss.

Assuming things go right, what we will ultimately have here is a fairly balanced baseball team with ample pitching and solid defense. Whether the Red Sox will possess the necessary firepower is open to debate, but Theo Epstein always has said that there is more than one way to skin a cat.

Finally, we can see where this is all going.

Having failed in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox are instead investing in what amount to penny stocks.

With John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli set to join Brad Penny in Boston, the most obvious hole remains at catcher, where the Red Sox have added only projected backup Josh Bard. Given the seeming surplus of pitching on the Boston roster, maybe this means the Red Sox will now part with Clay Buchholz in their pursuit of Texas catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, effectively putting the final pieces in place for the season-opening roster of your 2009 Boston Red Sox.

Is it a championship roster? For now, that is impossible to say -- but then, at the moment, it doesn't need to be. Epstein has between now and July 31 to further address whatever deficiencies the club may develop between before then, and we know the Red Sox have the wherewithal and resources to plug those holes.

What we don't know is how this team will come together and whether everyone will stay healthy.

For the moment, let's spell this out in the simplest terms, assuming the acquisitions of Penny, Smoltz and Baldelli are consummated, as we expect. (For the sake of argument, let's also add in Jason Varitek or Saltalamacchia.)

Rotation: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny. (The rehabilitating Smoltz would join in June, most likely.)

Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez. (One spot remains for David Aardsma or a long man.)

Starting lineup:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jason Varitek/Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
9. Jed Lowrie, SS.

Bench: Julio Lugo, IF; Josh Bard, C; Baldelli, OF. (One spot TBA, ideally for a Mark Kotsay-type who could fill needs both in the infield and outfield.)

At this time of year in baseball, there is a tendency to embrace all moves, if for no other reason than people respond to action. (It's always better than inaction.) Some fans will see the names of Smoltz and Baldelli and conjure up images of a Cy Young Award winner and Rookie of the Year, and the simple truth is that these players are the same only in name. Smoltz and Baldelli are both complementary pieces now, not cornerstones, and it is important to recognize that each comes with major questions.

In Smoltz's case, can he help the Red Sox, the way that Curt Schilling might have, in September and October, assuming the club will be playing meaningful games then?

And as for Baldelli, how much can he play and how much of asset can he be, particularly given Drew's injury history and concerns about Ellsbury's consistency?

Nonetheless, given where the Red Sox are today in the wake of the Teixeira failure, we have no choice but to move forward and ask the only question that matters: Where do the Sox go from here? To their credit, the Sox have not responded to Teixeira's decision by doing anything foolish, like throwing silly money at someone who does not deserve it. In the last two weeks, Epstein instead has signed (or is expected to sign) Penny, Bard, Smoltz, and Baldelli to one-year contracts that will cost the club somewhere in the range of $12 million-$15 million, offering potentially satisfying rewards while maintaining great long-term financial flexibility.

Next fall, when those contracts expire, the Red Sox will have all that money to spend again, in addition to the balance of funds they still possess from the 2008 departures of Manny Ramirez, Schilling and, potentially, Varitek. That's a good thing. The only question is how much of the 2009 season the Sox will have sacrificed in the process.

As for someone like Derek Lowe, know this: According to a source, the Red Sox had more interest in him had they signed Teixeira, for the simple fact that Lowe would have required only a second-round pick as compensation. (Teixeira would have required a first-round selection, meaning any subsequent Type A free-agent signings would have demanded a second-rounder, then a third-rounder, and so on.) But once the Red Sox missed out on Teixeira, the price for Lowe became a multiyear deal and a first-round pick, a combination they deemed too high given the depth they have at the front of their rotation and their success in developing pitching.

At this stage, they'd rather take a shot on one-year deals and hold on to the picks. Penny, Bard, Smoltz, and Baldelli all are non-compensation players, meaning they require the forfeiture of no draft picks.

At the moment, is this team as good as it might have been had it landed Teixeira? No. We all know that. Because this is Boston, the Red Sox always will be held to a high standard, particularly in the wake of World Series titles in 2004 and 2007. In most scenarios, winning 87 games simply does not qualify as a good year anymore. The Red Sox have a zealous following like perhaps no other team in professional sports, and their fans pay steep prices with the annual belief that the club can win a championship. In this market, in this age, the Red Sox never should be allowed to simply write off a year, particularly at a time when the dollar means more (to everyone) than it has in decades.

Does this team have some concerns and issues?

Of course it does.

But in the wake of any happening -- big or small, good or bad -- all they can do is offer their best going forward. And the Red Sox currently appear to be choosing the best and most prudent path.

NEW YORK - In the catacombs of the old Yankee Stadium, dressed in a charcoal suit with pinstripes, Mark Teixeira settled his large frame into a rather ordinary folding chair yesterday. The latest member of the Yankees gently removed his cap, exposing an undeniable impression on his forehead.

Too tight.

Much too tight.

"Do you mind if I take this off?" Teixeira politely asked, softly dropping his cap on the floor in the wake of a press conference to announce his eight-year, $180 million deal with the Yankees. "It's a little too small."

And so, in the end, maybe it was that simple.

Maybe Mark Teixeira was merely determined to squeeze on a Yankees cap, independent of any greasing.

Yet, as the Red Sox, Yankees, and Teixeira all formally (and finally) move on today in what will go down as perhaps the greatest free agent competition in the considerable history between the participants in baseball's Hundred Years War, some final reflection is inevitable and mandatory.

Did the Red Sox overlook the Yankees here? (They say no.) Did Teixeira truly regard Boston as an option? (He says yes.) And what will the impact be on the American League in 2009 and beyond? (Time will tell.)

In the interim, let the record show that Teixeira acknowledged that he all but decided on the Yankees two weeks before Christmas, during a Dec. 12 dinner with his wife, Leigh, at the cou ple's Dallas-area country club. And let the record show, too, that the Teixeiras' weekly date came precisely six days before the Red Sox' fateful and fruitless visit to Dallas in hopes of closing a deal with the player.

Nonetheless, there is so much more to the story.

"The whole process was confusing," said Teixeira. "Sometimes I'd tell Scott [Boras] to stop calling me, then I'd call him five times a day saying, 'Tell me what you know.'

"Two weeks before Christmas, I talked to Leigh about it again, and we kind of decided that, hey, the Yankees are where we want to be. [Yankees general manager Brian Cashman] might want to give Leigh a hug, because when I asked her during the process, 'Where should I go, where should I go?' she'd always say, 'I just want you to be happy.'

"Finally she said, 'I want you to be a Yankee,' and it was a done deal. Once we got the contract figured out, it was a no-brainer for me."

Whether the Sox could have done anything to change that remains questionable, though club officials certainly would not have offered Teixeira the biggest contract in club history (and, at the time, third largest in baseball history) had they been operating with any degree of hopelessness. If and when the Sox choose to reflect on this saga - and they should - they should focus on Dec. 18, date of the infamous Dallas-area meeting that might have sealed the deal and instead sealed their fate.

According to a source familiar with the negotiations, the Sox began their pursuit of Teixeira with a six-year, $120 million proposal just minutes after the official bidding process began, shortly after midnight on the morning of Nov. 14. During the winter meetings Dec. 8-11 in Las Vegas, the Sox increased that offer to eight years and $168 million, an average of $21 million per season.

Roughly a week later, during the fateful meeting in Dallas that included Sox general manager Theo Epstein, Boras, and Teixeira as well as principal owner John Henry and team president Larry Lucchino, the offer peaked at $170 million over eight years - $10 million more than the club-record deal signed by Manny Ramírez during the winter of 2000-01.

Along the way, Epstein and Sox manager Terry Francona spent a day with Teixeira in the Washington, D.C., area Dec. 2, a meeting both sides described as highly productive. That meeting took place three days before Teixeira had an equally productive meeting with Cashman in the nation's capital as the player familiarized himself with a group of suitors that also included the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, and Los Angeles Angels.

"When I met with him in Washington, I felt that he wanted to be a Yankee," Cashman said yesterday. "He didn't say that, but I just got a really good feeling of like, 'You know what, if all things were equal, I think this is where he would prefer to play.' That was my sense. Then again, some players are good at selling that type of [sentiment], but that was my genuine feel."

Teixeira, meanwhile, expressed similar feelings about the Red Sox, calling Francona "a good man, a good manager," and referring to Epstein as "a great general manager - I enjoyed my time with him." All of that suggests the Sox had the momentum to close a deal in Dallas, something Teixeira suggested yesterday despite the assertion that his wife lobbied for a deal with the Yankees earlier.

All of that brings additional emphasis on the dynamic involving Teixeira, Boras, Henry, and Lucchino, the last two of whom were not present when Teixeira met with Sox officials in Washington. Boras and Lucchino are longtime adversaries, and one can assume Henry has had his share of frustrations with the agent, too. The Sox now have had tense negotiations with Boras in three of the last four seasons, with the departure of Johnny Damon, the acquisition of Daisuke Matsuzaka, and now Teixeira.

While Boras insisted that he did not string along the Red Sox - or, for that matter, anyone else - Teixeira said the Sox might have had a deal had they increased their offer Dec. 18. Multiple sources confirmed that Boras presented the Sox with a proposal in which Teixeira could have been signed for a guaranteed $176 million over eight years - precisely $22 million per season - but the deal included a pair of attainable vesting options that would have brought the value to $220 million over 10 years.

While it is unclear whether the Sox could have negotiated down those options, indications are that they dismissed the proposal.

Believing that Boras was bluffing, Henry then blasted out an e-mail to multiple media outlets in which he appeared to call Boras's bluff.

Less than a week later, Teixeira agreed to terms with New York.

"Every team did [have a chance]," said Teixeira. "I told my agent, 'This is the pecking order,' and I gave him my idea of who was going to be near the top.

"At the same time, I'm not going to lie to you guys. Contract was important. I wasn't going to take half as much money to play in New York. But when a team like New York steps up and is very competitive with their contract, it was an easy decision for me.

"I'm sure there could have been [a deal with Boston], but like I said, contract is important. When everyone was kind of around the same contract, there was no rush for me to make a decision, so that's kind of the way I went about that meeting with Boston.

"I have so much respect for [the Red Sox], but when their offer wasn't with the Yankees' and it just didn't seem like they were going to continue to better their offer, and the Yankees came in and did what they did, it was an easy decision."

Said Boras, "As far as Boston goes, I think Boston knows they got good-faith proposals and they were given proposals, which means, if accepted, the player would have signed the proposal. If teams reject them, they cannot in any way suggest they were strung along."

Indeed, even Cashman went so far as to suggest that he believed Teixeira would be a member of the Red Sox up to two hours before news leaked Dec. 23 that the Yankees had reached agreement.

Epstein again declined to comment publicly on the matter yesterday and the club has since agreed on deals with backup catcher Josh Bard and pitcher Brad Penny, though neither is represented by Boras.

However, in an e-mail to the Associated Press last night, Henry wrote, "There was no mention of the Yankees, but we felt all along that they were going to get the last call. That's what you deal with in working with Scott."

There now seems legitimate question as to whether the strained relationship between Boras and the Sox will affect the club's willingness to sign Jason Varitek, for whom there currently seems to be no market.

As for Teixeira, he will face the Red Sox at least 18 times a year for the next eight seasons.

By the end of that time, presumably, we will all know whether the classic cap of the New York Yankees was the right fit for him.

Tony Massarotti can be reached at tmassarotti@globe.com and can be read at www.boston.com/massarotti

So Mark Teixeira will become a Yankee today. Finally. Maybe now we can all get some answers.

Nearly two full weeks since news of his agreement, Teixeira will be in the Bronx today as the Yankees formally announce his acquisition. Along with the slugging first baseman, Yankees owners Hank and Hal Steinbrenner, as well as general manager Brian Cashman, are expected to be in attendance. Superagent Scott Boras also is expected to be by the side of Teixeira, otherwise known in these parts as "The One That Got Away."

Whether or not you wanted to see the Sox spoon over $170 million (or more) for Teixeira’s services, some questions need to be answered here. Since the Teixeira news first leaked, representatives for the Sox, Yankees and Teixeira (not to mention Teixeira himself) have not addressed the series of events that led to his signing with the Yankees. In this day and age of media manipulation, that is both highly unusual and extremely suspicious, no matter how much lobbying all involved parties have done ex parte or in sidebar discussions.

So, now that the Teixeira signing will be official, inquiring minds want to know:

1. Did the Red Sox really have a chance?
Presumably, the Sox will say no and Teixeira will say yes. We may never know the real truth. Red Sox officials clearly feel as though they were used by both Boras and Teixeira, meaning that the player's signing with New York was a forgone conclusion. For Teixeira to admit this publicly would be terribly foolish, particularly when Boras must continue to negotiate deals for future clients.

Locally, the Red Sox will come off as far more believable in this argument for obvious reasons. We know them better. Sox officials are as adept as anyone when it comes to playing media games and manipulating the masses -- in this day and age, sadly, such gamesmanship is a virtual necessity -- but the Sox generally have been forthcoming on many matters, particularly during those infamous "background’’ and "informational’’ discussions where information is shared.

As for Team Boras, take this into account: Earlier this offseason, one source in the agent's camp indicated the Red Sox could have locked up Teixeira with an offer of $176 million over eight years. The same source said that the Sox declined. What the source did not reveal was that the proposal included a pair of vesting options that would have brought the deal to $220 million over 10 years. Withholding such vital information that makes the entire exchange downright deceitful and manipulative.

2. Does Teixeira harbor any ill will toward the Red Sox?
With regard to this decision, the Red Sox are obviously the ones who feel spited. The question is whether Teixeira’s decision to go to New York had anything to do with the problems he experienced with the Red Sox upon being drafted by Boston and then-general manager Dan Duquette out of high school in the ninth round of the 1998 draft.

In October, while the Red Sox were facing Teixeira and the Los Angeles Angels during the American League Division Series, Duquette recounted the events during which negotiations between the Sox and Teixeira broke down. Duquette and then-scouting director Wayne Britton believed they had an agreement in place until Teixeira hired Boras and things broke down. According to the Teixeira family, Britton got emotional and the family was treated poorly.

Whatever took place, Teixeira opted for Georgia Tech and was drafted again three years later, this time in the first round, by the Texas Rangers, with whom he signed. Though Duquette and Britton are no longer with the organization, there are some who believe that Teixeira still resents the Boston organization.

3. How much did New York’s acquisitions of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett factor into Teixeira’s decision?
From Boston’s perspective, this is an important question. If Teixeira says that he was interested in the Yankees regardless, the Red Sox will get strong indication that any efforts would have been for naught. The Yankees were a far more attractive option in late December than they were in the middle of November, when New York looked like a team in disarray.

If Teixeira says the acquisitions of Sabathia and Burnett influenced his decision, he is admitting that the Yankees had to convince him to come to New York. Seemingly, that would suggest that the Red Sox had their best chance early on in the negotiation, when an extremely aggressive offer might have gotten the deal done.

As it was, Teixeira was able to wait and draw out the process, sacrificing nothing along the way. The Red Sox always were there as a fallback if the Yankees failed to improve their pitching. Had the Sox taken a more aggressive, take-it-or-leave-it approach early on, they might have forced Teixeira’s hand. (Or not.)

4. How aware were the Red Sox of the Yankees’ involvement?
Clearly, Red Sox ownership and management are comprised of extremely bright people who generally have done a fabulous job. That’s not the point. In this case, given New York’s wants and needs -- specifically with regard to pitching -- the question is whether the Red Sox truly believed the Yankees were in on Teixeira or whether they believed New York’s interests were focused elsewhere.

Early on in the offseason, the Yankees acquired first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, leading some to speculate that New York would not be in on the Teixeira talks. As it turned out, Swisher was a nice decoy. The Yankees subsequently focused on pitching while keeping Teixeira on the back burner, which may have created a smokescreen.

If the Red Sox did regard the Yankees as a threat throughout the process, the biggest question concerns the Sox’ attempts (or lack thereof) to sign Teixeira early on. Assuming the Sox had put forth their best possible offer at that stage, Teixeira’s resistance at that time might have been an indication that he had no intention of ever signing with them. (Yes, this is second-guessing after the fact.)

5. Can Boras and the Red Sox still do business?
The answer to this question is probably yes, but one can only wonder. Part of the problem is this type of negotiation is that people begin spinning the media and whispering into friendly ears when things get ugly, which only complicates the process. Just once, it would be nice if people answered questions honestly -- and if reporters all eschewed "background’’ and "informational’’ discussions for the purpose of getting to the truth.

Boras still represents a number of Red Sox clients, including J.D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka. He also represents Jason Varitek, who is a free agent. The Sox’ last two conclusive dealings with Boras have involved the Manny Ramirez fiasco and Teixeira, raising serious questions about the relationship between the agent and team. Boras seems to harbor no ill will toward Epstein, though his camp is quick to portray Sox president Larry Lucchino as the bad cop given Boras’s adversarial relationship with Lucchino.

In the wake of the Teixeira development, has any damage been done to the relationship between agent and team?

Or, in the words of the Corleone family, is this all chalked up to being just part of a dirty business?

Editor's note: Tony will be in New York for today's press conference. Check this spot later this afternoon for Tony's take and answers to some of the above questions.

In the wake of Pat Burrell agreeing to a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, here is something to consider: Tampa has shored up its two weakest spots in the lineup since the end of the 2008 season, when the Rays advanced to the World Series.

The point?

Tampa is getting even better.

Admittedly, Pat Burrell is not Albert Pujols, but that is not the point. Last season, Tampa’s designated hitters posted an OPS of .751, ninth in the American League. In terms of on-base percentage, Rays DHs ranked 11th. Agreeing with Burrell (a career .367 OBP) on a two-year, $16 million deal means Tampa will have greater depth in the middle of its order and serves as a nice follow-up to the trade that brought outfielder Matt Joyce to the Rays in the earlier offseason deal that sent Edwin Jackson to Detroit.

Joyce, too, projects as a nice upgrade. Last season, the Rays ranked 10th in the league in OPS from their right fielders and an even more dismal 11th in OBP. The 24-year-old Joyce should help the Rays in both areas, which does not even begin to measure the potential improvement in players like B.J. Upton (who was a beast in October) and Evan Longoria.

So, with all of the moves the Yankees have made -- and based on how the Rays ended last season - Tampa’s lineup now looks something like this:

1. Akinori Iwamura, 2b
2. B.J. Upton, cf
3. Carlos Pena, 1b
4. Evan Longoria, 3b
5. Carl Crawford, lf
6. Pat Burrell, dh
7. Matt Joyce, rf
8. Dioner Navarro, c
9. Jason Bartlett, ss

Pretty good, eh? Between the Yankees and Rays, it looks like the Red Sox are going to have their hands full this year.

Remember: Despite what happened in the postseason last year -- especially against the Red Sox -- the Rays struggled to score runs at times and finished ninth in the league in runs scored. The Rays have tons of young pitching -- David Price should join the rotation this year -- which means upgrading the offense was a priority. Nobody knows if the Tampa bullpen can match its performance from a year ago, but the Rays should have a more productive lineup this year, too.

One more thing about the Burrell deal: It is worth noting that he actually took a pay cut down to $8 million (from a base salary of $14 million in 2008) despite a season in which he finished with 33 home runs and 86 RBIs. Yes, Burrell had a brutal second half -- he hit a mere .215 after the break -- but he turned only 32 in October and has been quite streaky (and for long stretches) throughout his career.

Hmmm.

Wonder what this means for Manny Ramirez, who might have had $20 million from the Sox next year if he had behaved and encouraged them to exercise his option.

As we turn the page on 2008, maybe the phrase is only fitting when it comes to the Red Sox:

Out with the old, in with the new.

After all, in 2009, the Sox may have to win with a markedly different approach.

In the wake of the failed pursuit of Mark Teixeira, the Red Sox have indeed reached agreements with pitcher Brad Penny ($5 million guaranteed) and catcher Josh Bard ($1.7 million, non-guaranteed) on one-year contracts, at least partially addressing some of the team’s lesser needs this offseason. The latter suggests the Sox still have every intention of re-signing Jason Varitek, but what is clear now is that they must prepare for the reality that they will have a less-potent offense in 2009, meaning that they will have to win with pitching and defense.

As for the news that the Sox approached the Florida Marlins about Hanley Ramirez, it only magnifies just how costly the Teixeira fallout is. Ramirez isn’t going anywhere after signing a six-year, $70 million extension that begins next year, meaning that the Marlins have him locked up at an average salary of $11.67 million over the next six years. Further, because Ramirez’s annual salaries do not begin to explode until 2012 -- his base climbs to $15 million that season -- there is little or no reason for the Marlins to deal him before that time, at the earliest.

So why did the Red Sox approach the Marlins? For the same reason they pursued Teixeira. They know their offense is going to slip in 2009. They know that shortstop, more than catcher, is the position where they can make the greatest offensive upgrade. And they know that they need a productive young hitter for the middle of their lineup after breaking up the tandem of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez that served as the nucleus for their entire roster for nearly six years.

The more you examine the realities here, the more you cannot help but wonder why the Red Sox got to $170 million and stopped with Teixeira, leading to a scenario where the club was willing to offer prospects like Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury in a package for a young player with a $70 million contract.

But we digress.

Let’s take a moment here to look at the teams Theo Epstein has built over the last six years, beginning with the club that set a major league record for slugging percentage in 2003. In Epstein’s six years as general manager, the Red Sox have scored more runs (5,352) than any team in baseball -- the Yankees are a whisker behind at 5,347 -- which only highlights the key to Boston’s success. The Sox believe in building a deep, talented lineup that gets into (and mauls) opposing bullpens, which is a complicated way of saying that they seek to make opposing pitchers less effective.

By consequence, the Sox make their own pitching better.

But now? There are going to be some easier outs in this lineup, independent of the questions surrounding Ortiz and Mike Lowell. Barring a dramatic development at shortstop or catcher, the Red Sox are likely to have relative soft spots at three positions in their lineup, depending on what happens with Ellsbury. For all of the flash that many Sox fans adore in Ellsbury’s dynamic playing style, there is still great question as to just how productive he can be.

From June 2 through Aug. 29 last year, Ellsbury batted .240 with nine walks and .582 OPS in 69 games. When the stock market went into that kind of dive, we called it a recession.

All of this brings us to the pitching and, in particular, to Penny, who is precisely the type of signing many envisioned when the Sox entered this offseason: relatively low risk, potentially high reward. Assuming Penny’s health -- and independent of his effectiveness -- the real benefit here may be that the Sox get to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen. Unlike many years past -- like, say, the last six -- the strength of the club now appears to be their pitching staff, 1 through 12, where they appear to have the kind of depth that their lineup once possessed.