Deadline looms with uncertainty
Not sure which was more riveting: the Red Sox' come-from-behind win or the wacky stimulation of Walt Hriniak.
Somewhere in between the endless and often embarrassing fawning over Jerry Remy last night, the Red Sox beat the Diamondbacks, 5-4, in a contest that gets instant access into the "Game of the Year" debate. Down 4-1 in the bottom of the eighth, Boston rallied for four runs, with Jason Varitek lining a shot down the right-field line to drive in Mike Lowell (who had tied the game with a nifty wall-ball double) with the go-ahead run.
Jonathan Papelbon didn't allow anyone to hit the ball to Coco Crisp, thus securing his 22d save on the season.
This brings us to Game 3 of this three-game set against the D-Backs tonight, otherwise known as Game 81 of Boston's 2008 campaign. For those with some level of difficulty determining fractions, percentages, and portion distribution, that's known as the somewhat irrelevant halfway mark. It is the point during the season when it's easiest to multiply by two every stat on the board in order to determine the final book on individual 2008 stats sheets.
On the other hand, Theo Epstein and Co. work in thirds, those Yalies, they. One-third of the season seeing what you've got, one-third of the season trying to fix things, and the final third sitting back with either a celebratory cocktail or a stress-induced shot of bourbon, watching the final act unfold. We're currently in the stage where the Red Sox try to address needs via trade, waiver wire, or disabled list, where a certain All-Star slugger continues to rest his injured wrist.
Today could go a long way toward discovering which way the team decides to approach the trading deadline. David Ortiz will hit off a tee in front of the medical staff in order to determine the next step in his rehab from wrist injury. Best case, he's two weeks from returning to the lineup. Worst case ... well, which door would you like to open?
The idea of a starting pitcher has been floated in certain circles, but if the team is unwilling to surrender prospects for the likes of Johan Santana, are they really going to give them up to rent C.C. Sabathia? Doubtful. Erik Bedard? Back spasms could land him on the DL, not exactly an enticing option. I've liked Freddy Garcia, currently still out there as free agent, over his mostly underrated career. I don't like the 2007 5.90 ERA Freddy Garcia.
Still, while you might be stuck in a giddy, the-rotation-is-all-sorts-of-fine state of mind (and with Clay Buchholz working on his game down 95, you have that right) the October loss of Curt Schilling is a blow, no matter what you think of his overall value, and the prospects of Bartolo Colon, once he comes off the DL, are concerning.
Figure this: For all the praise heaped the baseball ops way for picking up Colon at a bargain price following his 4-1, 3.41 start, the hurler was merely starting 2008 at a pace at which he began 2007 (5-0, 3.69). Colon finished 2007 6-8 with a 6.34 ERA. That's not to say history repeats itself on the baseball diamond, but his recent four-inning stint in Philadelphia didn't help to alleviate those fears.
The need for bullpen help (aside from bringing up memories of Eric Gagne) is always at a premium, but any moves are going to depend on how the next 30 days are approached by the likes of Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen. Concern over Hideki Okajima has been mostly overblown if only for the fact that he isn't the same pitcher that he was in 2007, an unfair comparison that he's earned for being so utterly dominant for four months last season, and somewhat pedestrian since.
The 11 of 14 inherited runners allowed to score is the biggest issue, of course, but Okajima has yet to allow an earned run against 10 of the 14 teams he's faced (even if Baltimore is enough to make up for that and more). Still, now that Mike Timlin is on the DL, there are fewer concerns than before in the 'pen, but as per usual, that's subject to change.
If we are therefore to pinpoint a number of "they better fix these" issues with the Red Sox, they all start with the health of Ortiz, with no guarantee of how his wrist is going to react to live pitching in a pennant race. Regardless, can we please cease the ridiculous conversation as to whether J.D. Drew continues to bat in the 3-spot once Ortiz returns? Drew is Boston's answer to the No. 5 slot, remember?
In 346 games in the No. 3 slot, Drew has a .973 OPS with 75 home runs. In the fifth spot, the spot he was paid $14 million per season to shore up after the dreadful returns of 2006, Drew has a career .952 OPS over 163 games with 25 home runs. Batting fifth in his career, Ortiz has a .909 OPS with 47 home runs over 248 games. Pretty good. But not as good as his 1.017 OPS with 166 home runs batting third over 568 games. Gee, I dunno. Where does Ortiz bat?
Then again, the uncertain health of Ortiz could shift Boston's view for a bat in its lineup. Unfortunately, where they really need one is at shortstop, where Julio Lugo's Remy-like power numbers continue to astound anyone who discovers he's making $9 million per for another two-and-a-half years in Boston. Ken Griffey Jr.? Junior has an OPS of .748, which is what you get out of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. I don't quite think that's worth surrendering prospects, do you? Adam Dunn? He may not love the game, but his .880 OPS is comparable to Prince Fielder, Manny Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis. You can bet if Fielder does indeed go on the trading block this summer, he's going to come at a more expensive price than Dunn. Todd Helton? If he was a shell of his former self last season, he's a mere tracing in 2008. Matt Holliday? Expensive, yes. Intriguing, maybe.
Will the Red Sox trade Crisp for pennies on the dollar? Despite last night's heroics, do Varitek's struggles in the final year of his contract mean the team looks at catching options for the future at the deadline? Does the team's relationship with the Padres mean Brian Giles is an option? Should he be?
It hinges on Ortiz in the most important tee-ball session at Fenway Park that we'll see all season. Everything else after that will follow suit.
Eric, if anything Freddie Garcia has been an overrated pitcher his entire career not underrated. He has had very few "good" seasons and I am just going on memory not looking it up. Good blog though. I think the team as currently constituted even without Ortiz is capable of winning the World Series. You did not bring up Daisuke but I think it all hinges on him. If he comes back strong again, that will be the difference maker. Timlin coming back will be key also. I think he has this season left in his arm and that might be it.
Why would they be trading for anyone to replace Ortiz? They could sign Barry Bonds with his +1000 OPS to DH. This is a no-brainer.
If Ortiz doesn't come back and if they can sell Youkilis on the idea of playing left field (putting Manny in the DH slot) for the rest of this year, at least, they could try for Mark Texiera. He's in his last year with the Braves and has experience in both leagues. The Braves need pitching, the Sox have prospects. The Braves aren't out of the NL East numbers wise but it seems that every time I look (I live in GA) they've lost someone else to injuries. As for Lugo, I think that you find a team that wants something from you and say, "You take him you have to take Lugo too," like the Marlins did when the Sox went after Beckett. As for Coco, I don't care how many RBIs or diving catches he makes (or doesn't make, as the case may be), I would not cry to see him gone after the bull he pulled with the Rays. He may not be responsible for Youkilis getting hit in the eye but he sure is responsible for the fact that Sean Casey was not in the dugout to take over when it happened.
"Somewhere in between the endless and often embarrassing fawning over Jerry Remy last night...."
Eric, you're a good writer, and your columns are enjoyable. Your analytical skills are sufficiently strong that, unlike one of your colleagues, you don't need to resort to this kind of classlessness. Leave this cheapness to lesser journalists.
Maybe I'm ahead of myself, but isn't Hansack finally beginning to, as they say, "find himself'" at Pawtucket? Also, I would not discount Smith as being a very important factor from here on in. Frankly, I would not count on either Timlin (probably) or Dice-K (possibly) to help much this season. There's something really wrong with Dice K, and Timlin; well, you can only last so long!
I agree that Lugo's power is horrible, but you have to ignore his salary and look at how he fits in the lineup now. He bats 9th and has an OBP around .365. For where he is in the lineup, his offensive numbers are fine. His defense is a different story, but his offense for where he bats is acceptable.
Freedy Garcia?? Please, I see absolutely no reason to bring him on board. I have no doubt Bartolo Colon will contribute more in the 2nd half of the season than Garcia could. I also don't think Curt Schilling will be missed at all in the post-season. Yes Schilling has done great in the playoffs and World Series, but he' s a power pitcher that can't throw hard anymore. Frankly even if he hadn't hurt his arm this past winter I think he was just about through. Let's not forget he got racked around big time by Cleveland in Game 2 of the playoffs last year. Experience is great to have, but you can only fool the hitters for so long once you start to lose your stuff.
I think the Red Sox need to go after a lefthanded reliver in the next mont. Okijima looks like a medicore pitcher now. i think we should try to pick up Damaso Marte from Pittsburg and see if he's an improvement.
Bob L.
If Ortiz is out for the season then the sox's do have to do something. The Choices you list don't seem logical to me. Maybe for a Future investment if Ortiz will not be back or in this case if Manny's option is not picked up..... Still Dunn or Holliday let alone Prince will come with a big price tag......one of Clay...Lester... Masterson... Bowden.. Plus Lowrie and another top position prospect. Unless filling a long term need i say offer bonds an incentive laced contract and at least have the treat of a big bat in the order.
I disagree with the notion that is okay to ignore salaries. Yes, we are lucky that salaries are not as important for the Sox as a lot of other teams. But, the Sox still have a budget, albeit, a nice one. The Sox would be improved at Short by playing Cora and Lowrie, sans the 9 million per year they owe Lugo. That makes a big difference when trying to fill your holes. Lugo's salary can be seen as opportunities lost because there only so many roster spots and his salary accounts for about 1/15th of their overall payroll. And, it is even a larger percentage of their everyday, position roster. He is a problem, even if his numbers are solid for a 9th hitter.
This is the problem with the Sox. They are still one of the best teams of the year and they are beseiged with injury and performances across the board below what one would expect. The fix isn't easy, if there is one. No way you even consider Youk moving. How many other gold glovers and all-stars would even agree to shift over to another positon once in a while as Youk does at 3b? I can't think of any. LF ruins your defense. You can't move Drew or Lugo this year, so you don't have a spot to improve. The pitching out there, as Eric lays out, probably isn't better than the current options of a healthy Dice K or bringing back Bucholtz. The pen has struggled, but its loaded with arms on the farm. About all you can hope for is a knock out lefty to replace Javy Lopez who can't find the strike zone if his life depended on it. There is only other move for Theo to consider: If Ortiz is still hurt, sign Bonds and make sure Tek, Lowell and Youk beat the crap out of any of his entourage that sets foot in Boston. Other that that, this is our team. Clearly the best in baseball if they get healthy and hot, but so far, a bit iffy. I'd bet on a hot second half as everyone is down for the most part from last year.
This is the problem with the Sox. They are still one of the best teams of the year and they are beseiged with injury and performances across the board below what one would expect. The fix isn't easy, if there is one. No way you even consider Youk moving. How many other gold glovers and all-stars would even agree to shift over to another positon once in a while as Youk does at 3b? I can't think of any. LF ruins your defense. You can't move Drew or Lugo this year, so you don't have a spot to improve. The pitching out there, as Eric lays out, probably isn't better than the current options of a healthy Dice K or bringing back Bucholtz. The pen has struggled, but its loaded with arms on the farm. About all you can hope for is a knock out lefty to replace Javy Lopez who can't find the strike zone if his life depended on it. There is only other move for Theo to consider: If Ortiz is still hurt, sign Bonds and make sure Tek, Lowell and Youk beat the crap out of any of his entourage that sets foot in Boston. Other that that, this is our team. Clearly the best in baseball if they get healthy and hot, but so far, a bit iffy. I'd bet on a hot second half as everyone is down for the most part from last year.
The bottom of the lineup is starting to look like a classic black hole. Tek is conjuring memories of Mirabelli, Coco isn't making his case over Ellsbury, and Lugo's recent hot streak has him just approaching acceptable. If he were a great defensive shortstop. Which he's not. I wonder what he thinks about the increasing number of plays where Mike Lowell steps in front of him or call him off in foul territory to make sure he doesn't screw it up.
Tek's offense obviously can be overlooked. Coco makes a great 4th outfielder, if we ever get back to that scenario, but I'm sure he's on the table if asked for. Lugo is definitely in the "you must take him too" category that Catsduck cites. Theo has to be shopping heavily for a shortstop who brings something, anything, to the table. I imagine Pauley, Bowden, and some others are available to make it happen. With Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Lester pretty much locked in (and all relatively young), that leaves two slots for Wakefield, Buchholz, Masterson, and the rest of the AAA arms, of which all but Wake are young. Yes, we can trade pitching.
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