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God help the Red Sox if Theo can't get a reliable bullpen arm. I have zero faith in Hansen, Delcarmen, etc. Oki can turn it around, but how much longer can we wait? Homefield is very important for our success.

Can't you just see it now? Game 7 of the ALCS, Papi up against Percival with 2 outs, down by 1 with Pedroia on first and 2 out. Papi hits a high pop up that should end the game and send the Rays to the World Series, but instead it hits a catwalk and falls in for a game tying double! Manny singles home Papi, Papelbon slams the door and Tampa quickly votes to build a new stadium.

The Rays are a great story, but don't worry too much about the Red Sox. They are fine. This is a good team, going through a little slump. They just went 16 and 11 in June, which is a .593 winning percentage, a 96 win pace. Slumps happen to every team. Tampa will have one soon enough.

I have yet to read anything anywhere about this turnaround coinciding with the Rays dropping the "Devil" from their name - seems like reversing a curse if ever I've seen one :)

As a fan not only of the Sox, but also of baseball in general, I would like to see the Rays in the playoffs. To see an AL East team other than the Sox and Yankees in there would be a breathe of fresh air, and for all the hype about Toronto being contenders over the last few years, the Rays would be an exciting playoff presence.

Let's not forget that the Rays have been remarkably healthy and they are not that deep. One injury could derail them, whereas the Sox have survived many injuries. Plus, it's still before the All-Star break - as The Wolf would say, "Let's not go sucking each other's ***** just yet."

John, John, John...you need to get your facts straight. Carlos Pena missed 3 weeks with a broken finger. Scott Kazmir missed the first month of the season with an elbow strain. Willie Aybar missed several weeks with a hamstring strain. Troy Percival is on his second trip to the DL. Cliff Floyd has been on the DL. Al Reyes is on the DL for the second time this year.

Leaving aside any questions about fairness, the Rays last Iwamura for 3 games and Gomes for 5 because of the Beantown Brawl. While Jackson and Shields both missed starts.

Like I said check your facts, John.

"Let's not forget that the Rays have been remarkably healthy and they are not that deep."

^ LOL

and lets not forget Navvaro missing nearly a month, Garza 3 starts, and Longoria wasn't even called up until May.
But yeah Boston's injuries are far worse. I guess Papi doesnt need reminding about diving into 1st headfirst anymore huh.

Wow. The entire Rays fanbase is posting in here. Both of them!

Mr. Wilbur you are the first journalist that I've read, seen or heard who made the comparison of this years Rays team to the '91 Braves. I've been thinking about that comparison for about a month. I agree that, so far at least, it's a valid comparison.

Most will compare the Rays to the Sox & Yankees and, based largely on experience and past history, assume the Rays will fade. I don't. The Rays have nobody outside of pitcher Andy Sonnenstine having big year. He has the most wins and the least stuff of any of the Rays' starters. What he's got is a major league head and he's using it extremely well. Everybody's done something to aid the cause so to speak. Also, Mike in Tampa's correct. Between suspensions and the disabled list, there haven't been that many games where the Rays have started their eight (8) best players.

The Yankees have obvious trouble with their starting pitching, but so far they haven't had a lot of offensive consistency either. They're real streaky when it comes to scoring runs. See if that continues against the Sox this weekend.

Besides missing Big Papi, the Sox's pitching while good, hasn't been as consistent as the Rays'. They're still a tremendous offense, but they don't play defense as well as Tampa Bay, at least not so far.

The Rays have gotten better as the season's progressed and can continue to improve. Of course they could get hit with major injuries or a young team el foldo, but I wouldn't rely on that. The statistics cited in this article speak well for a team on the rise that, quite frankly, isn't all that stunned at their collective success.

Watch out Sooox fan! They Rays are young, they are fast, they have great young pitching and most are locked into long term deals!

And we haven't started to hit yet!

An impressive aspect of this team - in contrast to the Celtics - is that this team is mostly homegrown. They made no flashy free agent signings this off-season, just made one important, relatively unnoticed trade (getting Garza and Jason Bartlett from Minnesota for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris), signed a couple cheap contributers (Hinske & Cliff Floyd) and let their young guys mature. Most of their team has come up through the system (like stars Crawford, Upton, Longoria, and Shields), Kazmir was stolen from the Mets a few years ago (maybe the Mets thought they were getting Carlos instead of Victor Zambrano), Pena was signed off the scrap heap last year, and Percival was lured out of retirement. Even a Red Sox fan has to appreciate the story this year. While I certainly want the Sox to win the series again this year, I would love to see the Rays make the playoffs.

Aside from the Yankees, the team I dislike the most is the Rays b/c of the bad blood between them and the Red Sox over the years and even this season. The baseball fan in me, however, thinks the Rays are a great story and I do hope they keep it going. I am also tired of Red Sox-Yankees and esp. sick of the Yankees (everyone except Jeter) and wouldn't mind seeing the Rays in the playoffs, as long as they're the wildcard and the Sox win the division. (On a side note, I'd like to see the Mariners good again, as well as the Pirates.)

@ John re: contrasting against the Celtics, the Celtics have been mostly mediocre for 20 years and have never great picks. On the two tiems they *were* bad enough to pick first the balls didn't fall their way and they ended up lower. You would figure that with Tampa picking first/among the first for so long they're bound to have some good talent--unless management is completely clueless, they were due to have some talent begin to blossom, and that's what's happening now.

btw, I live in NY and Met fans are still not over the Kazmir trade. Zambrano--I don't even know what happened to him as he hasn't been in the rotation at all. Kazmir could be an even bigger theft than Gasol was for the Lakers (time will tell on that one I suppose.)

Anyway, good luck to Daisuke and the Sox tonight. Let's not get swept by these upstarts!

Are you ready for some football because your Sox are done?

I don't understand what the big deal is, it is only the all-star break. I have no doubt that the Rays will not be within five games of us come the playoffs. And can the writer please explain to me how the comment, "attempting a worst-to-first that would make the Celtics’ own bottom-to-top pale in comparison.", make any sense, at all. I mean are you serious? The Celtics won 42 more games this year than last year, and won the Championship. Did you already forget that Wilbur? I mean keep trying to sell your stuff, what they are doing right now is impressive, but we don't need stupid comments like that.

Eric, a little hyperbole there, huh? Bottom-to-top that would make the Celtics similar run pale in comparison? Really?

IT might equal it. But, pale in comparison?

Please.

Even though we moved to St Pete in 1991, we are diehard NE fans.
However, re the Rays, I'm happy that they are playing well, except against the Sox and we are going to the game tonight.
What you folks do not know however, is that the Rays farm teams are REALLY good...do not say they are not deep. One phone call and they could probably call up another fully competitive team!

Theo needs to add a good lefty to the bullpen immediately. I don't think Okijima will turn it around. The teams that have seen him the most are obivously our rivals in the AL East and once teams have seen Okijima enough times they hit him.
If the Sox lose tonight and then lose 3 out of 4 in New York they could be as much as 6.5-7.5 games behind Tampa! Unbelieveable.

Can't believe no one's noticed Wilbur's biggest mistake - you can't have a 50+ percent chance of winning a Division title and also have a 70+ chance of winning the Wild Card! That would mean that more often than not, the Rays are expected to win the Division AND the Wild Card SIMULTANEOUSLY!

The way Coolstandings works is to use the current run differential to run a million simulations of the season and display in percentage terms the likelihood of a team winning the division, winning the wild card and making the playoffs (which is found by adding the division and wild card chances together).

Right now, Tampa is 50.7% on the division, 21.6 on the WC and 72.2 overall.
The Sox are 37.2/25.4/62.5 and the Yankees are a lackluster 6.5/8.8/15.3.

The predicted win totals are 94 for the Rays, 92 for the Sox. I might go ahead and print playoff tickets, but I wouldn't order any Eastern Division champions tshirts quite yet if I were in Tampa.

Does it bother you that Shaughnessy and Ryan are making such a big deal about the Manny altercation? If the two men have reconciled, apologies were made, and the victim didn't feel it was appropriate to press charges or push for some sort of punishment (like a one game suspension, or a donation to charity in his name), then what makes it newsworthy?

Put another way, isn't it a better resolution for all concerned if people come away from this without conflict or bad blood?

Tampa Mike -

The 'depth' referred to might have been better suited if he had mentioned pitching... starters, in particular. They always drive the bus.

In looking at the Rays pitching, Kazmir was out, sure. But the other starters have been there. That's been the Rays strength.

The Sox have had no Schilling, Beckett out, Dice-K out, and Buchholz as well. (You might remember the game he pitched in the dome? THAT was a duel.) We've used Colon & Masterson, and patched here & there. Lester and Wakefield have been the most consistent. The best thing is - the Sox are not playing well, and we're just a few off the pace. The Rays are, on the other hand, in uncharted waters.

One of your starters goes out, or two, the wheels fall off the wagon pretty quickly. We've seen it in recent years with our staff. Be glad it's been a smooth ride so far, but remember to hang on...

And don't print your playoff tickets just yet, compadre. There's a ton of baseball to be played still.

I think a few of the Rays fans posting here are getting a little over-excited. If you compare the current situation to the projections for this year, both the Sox and the Rays are about on-pace for Runs Scored (both slightly under).

Also, as they stand right now, the Runs Scored / Runs Allowed stats show that the Rays are getting a bit lucky, being several games over their expected W/L record, while the Sox are right on. So there's really no reason to expect an offensive explosion from the Rays in the later part of the year, while on the other hand, especially when Ortiz returns, the Sox could definitely step it up.

I'm sure that Tampa Bay will be in the playoff hunt all year, but let's not let this current hot streak distort anything.

As a Mass. transplant die-hard Sox fan living in Sarasota for 26 years, I have seen this coming for a while now. I'm still Bosox first, but I really enjoy the Rays, and if someone other than Boston is to win the division, let it be Tampa Bay. The Sox frankly are looking a little aged when they play these guys. And what's with Manny swinging through fastball after fastball? Based on what I've seen lately, it may be that his decline has begun. The Rays haven't even tried to be deceptive with him; they're just playing good old-fashioned hardball, and he can't catch up to the heat.

I totally disagree with you about the greatest World Series ever. Yes, those games in 1991 were close and exciting, but the level of play was poor: bad baserunning, defensive lapses, etc. At the time I couldn't believe how poorly these two teams were playing in the Major League World Series. 1975 was just as exciting and played on a much higher level.

I'm very impressed with the Rays and I think Sox fans should assume that they won't fold and that we have to finish ahead of the Yankees to make it to the postseason.

I do find it weird that in 11 games between the Sox and the Rays the home team has won every time. The Trop games have been close & low-scoring but at Fenway the Sox have absolutely killed the Rays, outscoring them 45-16.

I agree with Ben's point about that crazy catwalk in the Trop. It would make the Rays franchise look pretty stupid if that thing came into play at a crucial point in a postseason game.

A little perspective for those of you up there who might not be too familiar with sports history in Tampa. The Rays are following a trend that was set by previous Buccaneer and Lightning ownership groups. For whatever reason, we get a dope first ownership group that utilizes the team as a tax shelter or some form of toilet paper for their otherwise "lucrative" financial investments. Then a second ownership group comes in that has a winning philosophy and understands how to actually position the team in a "smaller" market (I'll never say small market, as last I checked we were 11th in North America- and growing fast- funny, mostly thanks to Boston and New York/New Jersey transplants).

Obviously, the Bucs ownership mess lasted twenty years and we went through some lean times there. But, those of us who endured and were with that team from the beginning learned the meaning of what it is to be a true fan. We suffered through a losing streak that isn't likely to be duplicated in the NFL ever again (though if it weren't for the Baltimore blunder, I have a feeling Miami might have been a contendor this past season). Those of us that lived through it know all too well that no matter how high you climb, there's always a distance to fall. And we're the kind of people who are loyal almost to a fault (RE: Cub fan). The problem is, with a massive influx of people from outside of the local area, we have developed a bit of a fair-weather fan problem down here. It makes me ill and it is exactly why those of you up there can come down to these games on the cheap.

The one trend that I hate with Boston these last few years is that it seems that many a Boston fan has forgotten their woes (this, of course, is a broad generalization and based on a Florida perspective). I used to feel a bit of a bond and a kinship because of the "curse" and the Patriots seeming determination to completely get blown out in a Superbowl. With recent events, alot of that has changed, and, unfortunately, Boston fans that we encounter down here aren't the same as they were then. Sadly, many of you have gone the way of Yankee fan and have forgotten your roots. But that's a completely different discussion.........

This Rays ownership group inherited a hell of a farm system and is working to build a much-needed new identity and so far, it's working. As a Rays fan from inception (actually, as a fan of the FIRST franchise....an NL franchise....that we were supposed to have until Mr. Huizenga somehow manipulated it away from us), I won't say we're playoff bound at this early stage. But I won't rule out the possibility. The actions of Coco Crisp just a few weeks ago is telling evidence that the Red Sox players and staff know what we're capable of.

My overall point, mostly in response to the follow-up comments to this blog, is that we have a team down here that is ready and willing to compete in the post-steroid era. We have speed and defense and we can small-ball with the best of them. While those of you outside of this area down here might be reluctant to believe we can sustain this, you might listen to some of what Wilbur was saying in this article- to many baseball experts this is no surprise and this team should be competitive for a number of years to come.

As for players missing time, I echo the thoughts of Mike in Tampa. Longoria wasn't called up until May. He's gone through rookie hitting slumps and is still on the plus side of .250 with 15 HRs. And that doesn't even touch his defensive skills. Pena has missed time and has been plagued by problems at the plate. Percival is on his second DL stint of the season. Kazmir spent the first couple of weeks on the DL. And, of course, we took the worst of the "Beantown Brawl" suspensions. I also think we could do without the Edwin Jackson meltdowns every fifth day and I'm of the opinion that he should spend some time in Durham working on his control, but I'm merely a fan, so what do I know?

From a Rays fan perspective, my biggest concern is the fact that we can't seem to steal a game at Fenway. That's not going to work come playoff time if we are indeed to be in the mix at that point.

Either way, I'm hoping these guys keep it exciting until the end of the season. I'd love to see some extra games down here.

Get ready for a Yankee sweep...sad but true....Sox lack punch and bull pen pitching...look out below...

Okay, I have lived in Tampa 12 years now, and it is really exciting for this town to have a contender. I would really like to warn all the fans of the Tampa Bay Rays, the seaason is not over, not by a long shot. I am not even saying the Red Sox are going enywhere, because the way their bullpen and clutch hitting looks, they are in real trouble right now. When I get three calls from friends trash talking about the Rays, this is kinda crazy. Trust me, being a long time Red Sox fan I know when to trash talk (when the last pitch of the World Series is thrown) and when to keep my mouth shut. I understand the excitment, but be realistic. Any Red Sox fan who has ever trash talked about anyone this early in the season, doesn't know baseball. Like I said, get excited, but brooms and trashtalking is for morons that have only started watching baseball this year.

Good perspective on Tampa sports history. Lived it all from day one. All 3 major league teams have something in common. They are at first bad franchises from the top down and become afterthoughts or laughing stocks. Next, they get a new owner with a good attitude and start amassing young talent. Last, they start winning and eventually take a title (Bucs, Lightining, and hopefully Rays).

Rays are young, talented and motivated. They could be this good for the next 5 years. Imagine what this team would be like with Josh Hamilton (horrible move letting him go; many of us felt he was finally on the verge of being healthy and ready to play) and a healthy Rocco Baldelli? Pretty scary lineup if that happened.This team will ned another bat and a closer to compete for it all, but they can get these pieces in the off season. Don't think we will pick them up at the deadline.

First of all, kudos to the excellent posts here from knowledgable baseball fans. Take a look at the comments sections of our Tampa Bay papers, where posters have a hard time stringing words together to form complete sentences and, well, it's a little depressing.

The Rays are a bit of an enigma because, with the exception of the bullpen, they haven't nearly played to their potential. At the same time, they have had more than their share of timely hits to win close games. In the second half, look for the hitters and starters to step it up a notch, but we'll see fewer key hits in crucial situations. Those factors will balance out and the Rays will stay steady and go 44-34 the rest of the way, battling the Sox (who will also step it up) all the way down the stretch.

The Rays have had a ton of injuries, and the suspensions didn't help. However, I think the injuries have actually helped this team. Role players like Gabe Gross, Eric Hinske, and Grant Balfour have been given key roles and performed, and now have the confidence to step in and get the job done whenever necessary.

This is going to be a good team for a while. A decade of top draft picks will do that. The Rays just need to be patient and not trade away top prospects at the deadline. There's a lot of talk of going after a marquee player for this year, but I'm more interested in seeing some of our good farm boys come up to St. Pete next year, and the year after, and the year after . . .

I thought the '86 Series was a pretty good one.

You can't use management's decision to not call up Longoria in the 'who's had more injuries' debate. You also can't complain about getting hit with more suspensions from the brawl since everyone who got suspended on both sides deserved it and your guys were all available for the games these past three days.

Rays fans - take it from a lifelong Sox fan - being ahead on July 3rd is nice, but not something worth getting too excited about. The chips landed perfect for you this weekend (your best 3 starters pitching and missing our best 2). Congrats on the wins, but let's not forget we've each gone 6-0 at home against the other, so let's talk again at the end of August.

The Rays have the look of a very good young team for five to eight years. They need more pitching -- who doesn't? And they could use a veteran leader, think Terry Pendleton in Atlana in '92. It's a great story for the game. Now the Rays need to sign more of their guys to Longoria-length deals. -- A Yankees Fan

Listen, Turn Key, or is it Turkey. The Rays did not win 55 games in Tampa in any year. They never won a single game in Tampa. They never even played a game in Tampa. The team is called Tampa Bay. They play their games, and always have, in St. Petersburg. These are two different and distinct cities. Each hates to be mistaken for the other. After eleven years it's past time to get it right.