Watch out for the Jays?
A year ago on this date, the red-hot Colorado Rockies found themselves with a 74-69 record, still 3½ games out in the National League wild card race, but gaining quickly. They finished out the year winning 16 of their final 20 games, making the playoffs for the first time since 1995, and rolling all the way to the World Series.
This should frighten everyone.
Lightning won’t strike twice in Denver. A year later, Colorado is 15 games off the pace for the wild card, which could be Milwaukee’s ticket to the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But just in case you’ve been too busy filling out playoff ticket applications to catch the Red Sox and their ALDS opponent, something potentially crushing is beginning to pop its head out of the sand, sparking what should amount to at least a smidge of concern in Boston baseball fans.
Last night the Toronto Blue Jays won their 10th straight, sweeping a double-dipper from the White Sox, 3-1, 8-2, and keeping themselves at least in the discussion when it came to scheduling October. Normally a 10-game winning streak from a team still 8½ games out of first place, seven in the wild card, would be filed under “Too Little, Too Late”.
But consider the seven games remaining on the docket between Boston and Toronto, four this weekend at Fenway (including Saturday’s doubleheader), three next weekend north of the Border (not to mention next week’s series in Tampa, where the Sox are 0-6 this season), and the Jays are at the very least thinking of the damage they can do to Boston’s division chances.
At most ... well, we’re not quite there yet.
As Cathal Kelly writes into today’s Toronto Star, “Depending on your viewpoint, this is either a depressing reminder of what could have been or a scintillating preview of what could be.”
It’s a little of both, really.
Suddenly, this week’s series against the first-place Rays at Fenway doesn’t seem to have the ranging consequences that the next seven against the Jays will. Last night’s 5-4 loss wasn’t just crushing because it denied the Sox first place in the East; it was ultimately concerning because it allowed the Jays one step closer with nearly half of their season schedule against Boston remaining in September.
I know, it was just 10 days ago that the Sox seemed to have opened up some sort of lead on the Twins for the wild card, and now we gotta worry about this? A team that’s seven games behind? Far be it from us to remind you that Boston’s success rate against the Jays this season hasn’t exactly been all that stellar, winning just four of the 11 meetings thus far. Despite winning 2 out of 3 the last time they met in Toronto a few short weeks ago, you might remember the rubber match took extra innings, one day after the Jays shelled Jon Lester en route to an 11-0 win.
This, by the way, is only good news for the Rays, who have finished their season series with the Jays, fresh off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Canadian hardballers this past weekend. Any dent in Boston’s AL East surge is good for Tampa, which won’t have to deal with any such attack. If the Rays find themselves in the wild card slot over the next 10 days, it’s because Boston took care of the Jays and put them to rest for another season.
But in Boston, that AL East title and division series home-field advantage are in some serious jeopardy, and while it really doesn’t ultimately matter whether the Red Sox get in via the division or the wild card, a first-round series against the Angels, in Anaheim, isn’t as advantageous as kicking off the month with two at home against the White Sox/Twins.
If the Jays are to outright catch the Sox for the wild card, it would probably take winning six out of the seven remaining games for any realistic shot at it. Normally, we’d scoff at such a suggestion and start rearranging sleeping schedules for next 6-8 weeks.
But the Jays are still dreaming big, as long as the possibility is within their grasp. Roy Halladay -- who pitches tonight in Chicago -- will go in this weekend’s series on short rest, a sure sign that they know what could be at stake. The Sox could also have to deal with A.J. Burnett, who is suddenly 17-10 on the season following last night’s one-hitter. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett takes the mound tonight, a day after our once-every-five-days Matsuazaka headache. Neither will pitch this weekend when the Sox are scheduled to have Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Lester on the mound.
It’s not exactly Kevin Brown in Game 7 of the ALCS, but nor is it the foursome you might ideally want in what amounts to the most important series of the year for the opponent.
The 2007 Rockies went 20-8 over their historic September run. The Jays, thus far, are 8-0 for the month with 18 games remaining. It would take a minor miracle for them to make the postseason (if they go 14-4 the rest of the way, the Sox would have to go just 7-11 for a wild card tie), but seeing how the schedule is laid out the next week-plus, maybe, just maybe, we have an unexpected race on our hands.
According to coolstandings.com, the Jays have only a 2.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, an increase of 1.9 percent since yesterday, a 2.4 percent increase from a week ago today. We’re at the point of the baseball season when pennant races become as harried and rushed as our daily lives, a 180 from the long and mostly worry-free days of summer.
This all might not matter come the weekend. Heck, it might not matter in 12 hours based on what happens tonight at the Fens and the South Side. But it’s just the latest sign of how one loss can affect so much in a pennant race. Right now the Blue Jays hover as an orange-level threat, not likely to push Boston out of the playoffs but a hurdle all the same.
two words...yeah right
Agreed Sully...."in Boston, that AL East title and division series home-field advantage are in some serious jeopardy"
That is a serious exaggeration.
Baseball Prospectus is less enthusiastic than coolstandings and has the Jays at a 1.4% chance of making the wild card. It's not nothing, but even if you go with 2.9% it's pretty clearly a huge longshot.
The Sox are finally getting back to full force. They lost a tough one last night, but I'm thinking they'll take the series tonight and be back to half a game out. Right now BP has the Rays as 60/40 favorites over the Sox to win the division, but if we win tonight I'd like to see how much that number changes. I still predict that they'll wear down the Rays over the rest of the month and have a couple game lead in the division by the end. If all goes well it'll be the Rays that have to worry about Toronto.
Either the Jays will catch the Sox or will miss the playoffs. 6 out of 7 is a must. Assuming this happens Rays would need a similr type of streak.
What these standings prediction sites dont take into account is you can throw probabilities out the window based on two factors
-Jays are on a 10 game winning streak, meaning they are playing far above their seasonal average
-The play the Red Sox 7 times.
If they didnt play the Sox, then i would agree it is equally unklikely the Jays to go 14-4 and the sox go 7-13. However if the Jays win 6 of 7, then their records would have to be 8-3 (Jays) and 6-7 (Sox), a lot more realistic.
Even so its a longshot unless the Jays sweep or go 6-1 against the sox which is very very unlikely still, but i think better than these stat models are predicting.
Wouldnt it be a beautiful irony for Yankee fans that now realize no Oct baseball for them that the Sox blow a 7 game lead with 3 weeks left......
Its the head to head matchup that makes it interesting. If the Jays take 6 of 7, a possibility given that Boston's top 2 are not pitching this series, then the Jays need to go 8-3 in their other games, needing atleast a 7-4 red sox record for the red sox to make it. A 6-5 red sox record in the other games would tie it (and give the tie breaker to Toronto).
current record:
red sox 85-59
jays: 78-66
jays go 6-1 vs the sox:
red sox: 86-65
jays: 84 - 67
tie-breaker to toronto, means red sox only have a game to spare.
Who cares about the Blue Jays. I am more concerned about the weather this weekend. It better warm up because I just got this cute new Jason Bay pink jersey and it better not be too cold. I just can't wait to be in the Monster Seats for the double header this weekend. I will be singing Sweet Caroline not just once but twice, it will almost be as good as the Neil Diamond concert. It will be So Good, So Good to be singing and drinking Stoli Vanilla and Diet Cokes as me and the rest of Red Sox Nation cheer on the Sawx!!!! LOL!!
CPH, whoever you are, this act was funny . . . about six months ago.
It's just tired now.
Awww don't worry Baseball Perspectus sez AJ Burnett's probability of going on the DL any day now has soared to 38.3% and Byrd, Lester, and Beckett looked pretty damn good as of late...
sal, the playoff spot wouldn't be decided by a tiebreaker. they'd have a one game playoff. This article was a complete waste of time. It's not happening
Here is one writer who was desperate for a story...I'd say the Rays AL East title chances are in serious jeopardy, not Boston's, the Sox are coming on strong despite the blown game, playing better ball overall than the Rays
Some of you Red Sox fans are real funny. Don't take the early part of the season's statistics into much account. They're a new team. Ever since the managerial change a few months ago, the Jays have had one of the best, if not the best record, in baseball! So, watch out! The Jays are in flight and are cruising at full speed!
Being a hard core Jays fan, I have watched all year as they have had great pitching (best team ERA in AL) and great D(also best in AL), while they have lost numerous 1-0, 2-1 games when they had no offence. Now it appears that they have found their bats and the pitching and D are humming along like they have all year. My guess is that they may fall short of the post season, but it makes for an interesting September up here and makes you very excited about next year. Go Jays.
Now just imagine where the Blue Jays would be in the standings if Ricciardi wasn't such a bonehead and didn't trade Glaus for Rolen, sign Eckstein, and release Frank Thomas.
I honestly don't know how he hasn't been fired yet. He's so overrated.
Funny Eric - I emailed some buddies two days ago that - based on September win/loss trends - an outside the box - yet a possibility, is the Sox taking the AL East and Jays in the wildcard.
Looking at win/losses for Sept (Sox 6-3, Rays, 3-6, Jays outasight), that is the most likely of the outlandish possibilities. the country will lose a cinderella story, but it could happen -- and is more likely than the Sox getting waylayed.
The Rays just got swept by the Jays, the Rays just took 2 out of 3 at Fenway. It's just silly to not consider the fact the Jays could take 3 of 4, or even sweep. No one thought the Rays would win the recent series here. Everyone in Boston thought the sox would be in first place now, not 3 games in the loss column back. If Toronto wins 3 of 4 this weekend, then the Sox go to Tampa and get swept again then Toronto takes 2 of 3 that would be 2-10. It might sound outrageous, but it could happen. The Sox allowed 9 runs in three games and lost 2 of them, they didn't exactly pound on the Rays pitching and the Jays pitching is better. The playoffs aren't guaranteed, the next 10 games will tell the tail...
Being a die hard jays fan, I believe that they can make the playoffs. They may take 6 of 7 from the Sox or 5 of 7. I sure hope they annihilate the hopes out of those Beantown weeners this weekend!
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