Cone of science
Forget the cost. Jayson Stark lays out perhaps the biggest reason why the Red Sox should back away from Roy Halladay.
Over the past 32 years, exactly three pitchers who changed teams in midseason have won a World Series game: Joe Blanton for the 2008 Phillies, Jeff Weaver for the 2006 Cardinals and Mike Torrez for the 1977 Yankees. Combined Cy Young Awards for those three guys: Uh, that would be zero.And over the past 13 years, only two pitchers who got traded on deadline day (July 31) went on to win any kind of postseason game. One was Oliver Perez (who was actually only a throw-in at the time) for the 2006 Mets. The other was David Weathers, who was just a set-up bullpen arm for the 1996 Yankees.
While that’s some eye-opening stuff, it’s flawed. Halladay is quite obviously a bigger available chip than the likes of Blanton, Weathers, and Weaver. Maybe the last time I can recall a great pitcher changing uniforms on July 31 was when the Mariners traded Randy Johnson to the Astros in 1998. Johnson started two postseason games for Houston that season, and went 0-2 against San Diego with a 1.93 ERA.
Going back a bit further, David Cone made two starts for the Blue Jays in the 1992 World Series, but didn’t record a win. Nor does Cone fit into Stark’s second criteria, as the Mets didn’t deal him on deadline day, but nearly a month later in the blockbuster trade that sent Jeff Kent to New York.
The Jays may have won the title that season without Cone, but he was invaluable in sealing up the division, which Toronto won by only 4 games over the Milwaukee Brewers. Cone went 4-3 with a 2.55 ERA for the Jays down the stretch. (Six degrees, David Weathers was a 22-year-old arm on that ’92 Jays squad.)
Oh, and Cone joined a staff that already boasted Jack Morris (21-6), Jimmy Key (13-13), Juan Guzman (16-5), and Todd Stottlemyre (12-11). Was anybody whining about them not needing a pitcher when the deal was made?
That ’92 Blue Jays team, stocked with arms, hit .263 with a .747 OPS, both pretty good for 1992. The Atlanta Braves, whom the Jays met in the World Series that season, had a .703 OPS, just slightly above league average that season.
In fact, that .263 batting average was tied for fourth-best in baseball that season, while the 2009 Red Sox are currently in the middle of the pack with their .261 average. Their .782 OPS is fifth-best in baseball.
Boston's 4.46 starting ERA, on the other hand, is 15th best, no thanks to John Smoltz.
Though Cone walked after ’92, the Blue Jays went on to win a second World Series, while Kent went on to become a possible Hall of Famer. They’d make that trade again for sure.
As for Halladay, there’s obviously a point where it becomes cost-prohibitive (and judging by what the Jays wanted from the Phillies, we may have already reached that stage in this discussion).
But the Cone trade is just one example of a midseason pitching trade that worked, even though he didn’t win a World Series game. As long as you’re adding to pieces you already have, it’s worth going after an arm like the Toronto ace. If you’re going to surround Pedro Martinez, circa 2000, with the likes of Pete Schourek and Rolando Arrojo (one example of a midseason pitching deal that did not work), you don’t need me to tell you that you’re doomed.
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