The Power Index: Week 7

OK, as promised earlier in the week, I’m gonna unveil my first “Power Index” of 2009 now. It’s a formula that a college coach taught me, and was used to measure offensive efficiency. And it’s a pretty proven one, at that.

This coach did a study of how his school did when its offensive number was 40 or over. The result: a winning percentage of .972 over a 10-year period. When that number was below 40, the team’s winning percentage, over that same time, was .471.

So what I did a few years back, in applying this to the NFL, was take the formula, and put defensive numbers into it, as well. In that case, the lower the number, the better the defense. And then, to measure a club’s overall efficiency, I simply subtracted the defensive number from the offensive number.

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This formula takes into account things like first downs, points and turnovers. I like it because it factors in the value of yards without rewarding teams too much for picking up 12 yards on a third-and-20 (just as an example), and it works to find who truly controls games, by measuring possession through the first down function. Anyway, enough with the explanation, here’s what the numbers spit out this week, with the total number first, then offense and defense in parentheses. Follow the jump for the full 1-32 list. and offensive defensive rankings …

1) Saints (6-0): 29.50/game (O: 58.00; D: 28.50)
2) Patriots (5-2): 25.71 (49.57, 23.86)*
3) Colts (6-0): 22.67 (48.17, 25.50)
4) Packers (4-2): 19.50 (45.17, 25.67)
5) Broncos (6-0): 19.00 (39.67, 20.67)
6) Giants (5-2): 13.43 (43.17, 30.29)
7) Vikings (6-1): 13.00 (46.71, 33.71)
8) Ravens (3-3): 12.50 (47.67, 35.17)
9) Eagles (4-2): 12.17 (40.67, 28.50)
10) Bengals (5-2): 7.86 (38.71, 30.86)


11) Steelers (5-2): 7.57 (39.57, 32.00)
12) Jets (4-3): 7.43 (33.43, 26.00)
13) Cardinals (4-2): 7.33 (35.83, 28.50)
14) Falcons (4-2): 6.50 (39.00, 32.50)
15) Cowboys (4-2): 6.33 (42.50, 36.17)
16) Texans (4-3): 4.43 (39.00, 34.57)
17) Seahawks (2-4): 3.17 (33.67, 30.50)
18) Chargers (3-3): 3.00 (42.00, 39.00)
19) Dolphins (2-4): 1.83 (40.50, 38.67)
20) 49ers (3-3): -0.83 (32.83, 33.67)
21) Jaguars (3-3): -4.17 (35.67, 39.83)
22) Redskins (2-5): -6.57 (23.71, 30.29)
23) Bills (3-4): -7.00 (25.86, 32.86)
24) Bears (3-3): -9.00 (31.50, 40.50)
25) Chiefs (1-6): -13.43 (27.43, 40.86)
26) Panthers (2-4): -13.67 (23.67, 37.33)
27) Lions (1-5): -18.33 (29.50, 47.83)
28) Buccaneers (0-7): -21.00 (23.29, 44.29)
29) Browns (1-6): -27.57 (16.00, 43.57)
30) Raiders (2-5): -29.71 (13.29, 43.00)
31) Titans (0-6): -30.50 (20.67, 51.17)
32) Rams (0-7): -31.57 (18.14, 49.71)
Offense
1) Saints
2) Patriots
3) Colts
4) Ravens
5) Vikings
6) Packers
7) Giants
8) Cowboys
9) Chargers
10) Eagles
11) Dolphins
12) Broncos
13) Steelers
14) Texans
15) Falcons
16) Bengals
17) Cardinals
18) Jaguars
19) Seahawks
20) Jets
21) 49ers
22) Bears
23) Lions
24) Chiefs
25) Bills
26) Redskins
27) Panthers
28) Buccaneers
29) Titans
30) Rams
31) Browns
32) Raiders
Defense
1) Broncos
2) Patriots
3) Colts
4) Packers
5) Jets
6) Cardinals
7) Eagles
8) Saints
9) Redskins
10) Giants
11) Seahawks
12) Bengals
13) Steelers
14) Falcons
15) Bills
16) 49ers
17) Vikings
18) Texans
19) Ravens
20) Cowboys
21) Panthers
22) Dolphins
23) Chargers
24) Jaguars
25) Bears
26) Chiefs
27) Raiders
28) Browns
29) Buccaneers
30) Lions
31) Rams
32) Titans
* — Update (4:27 p.m.): Fixed the Patriots’ number. Had the overall figure as both their overall and defensive number. That’s been corrected. Thanks to reader CEHenry3 for pointing it out.

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