Gambling can shred your psyche in so many ways. Here are two:
1. One month ago, The Bettor’s Edge took New England — in Foxborough — over the New York Jets. New England didn’t cover; it was favored by 8 and barely won the game. Just another loss on a road littered with them, right? The next week, New England was in London laying 7 against St. Louis. This space, despite knowing that New England was superior to the Rams in all phases of the game, stayed away because of what happened in the Jets game. The Patriots rewarded me for being a coward by blasting St. Louis, 45-7. I could barely watch.
2. Two weeks ago, I went 4-0 and dragged myself back to even. Last week, I completely unraveled and went 0-4. “Say it isn’t so,” my alleged most devoted reader — my mother — wrote in an e-mail.
It most certainly is so, but the beauty of the NFL is, here we go again. It’s only Week 11.
This week’s picks (home team in caps):
NEW ENGLAND (-9½) over Indianapolis: The Patriots didn’t cover at home against Buffalo, so this is a great week to buy in. The Colts cannot control their schedule, but it’s worth noting that they haven’t played a team with a winning record since they upset the Packers in Lucas Oil Stadium, 30-27, Oct. 7.
Indianapolis has done an outstanding job putting away the likes of Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, and Jacksonville. But at New England, in the chill of the twilight, with a quarterback who’s still a rookie? I’m not ready to buy those circumstances. Risking $110 to win $100.
ST. LOUIS (-3½) over New York Jets: The Jets began playing out the string after nearly defeating New England three weeks ago. They just didn’t officially tell anyone until mailing it in against Seattle. Risking $110 to win $100.
HOUSTON (-15½) over Jacksonville: I’ll bite. Unless half of Houston’s team oversleeps, I don’t see any way the Jaguars pull the upset. If you believe Houston will win outright, it becomes a matter of by how much. Is it that outrageous to think that after the first quarter the Texans will be ahead, 10-0 or 14-0? At that point, laying 16 doesn’t look so unappetizing. Risking $110 to win $100.
Last week: 0-4, minus $440. Season: 18-22, minus $578.