PLAYING FOOTBALL
'Dogs provide home security
They defend turf in alarming way
By Gerald Strine, Globe Correspondent, 12/19/2003
Only the gambling publication The Gold Sheet could come up with such a statistic: Over the last nine years, NFL home underdogs have gone 33-13-1 in the next-to-last weekend of the season.
Why the dog bites so hard at this point on the schedule is anybody's guess. This year, after a terrible start, the 'dog-at-home has come on smartly the second half of the schedule to pull nearly even against the pointspread.
Minnesota, the New York Jets, Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland are the home teams getting points this weekend. I'm going with the Browns and Oilers, against the Vikings and Jets, and passing on the Raiders, hosts to Green Bay Monday night.
So much for history.
The plays
Kansas City at Minnesota -- Chiefs favored by 3. Both sides have incentive. Both sides can score. Both sides have problems on defense. The Chiefs have better balance. Take Kansas City for an imaginary $50.
New England at NY Jets -- Patriots favored by 3. I went against the Patriots last week, thinking they might suffer a mild letdown after a big win over Miami the previous week. Didn't happen. Take New England for $50.
Baltimore at Cleveland -- Ravens favored by 3. All of Anthony Wright's shortcomings as a quarterback were on display last Sunday in Oakland. The Browns defense should add to his problems. Take Cleveland for $50.
Cincinnati at St. Louis -- Rams favored by 7. The Rams keep winning at home, but I still am not impressed with Marc Bulger. And the Bengals have a running game that can give St. Louis trouble. Take Cincinnati for $50.
Miami at Buffalo -- Bills favored by 1 1/2. Travis Henry runs just as hard as Ricky Williams . . . without attracting half the publicity. Take Buffalo for $50.
NY Giants at Dallas -- Cowboys favored by 10 1/2. The double-digit number normally would be enough for me to ignore this matchup, but the Cowboys are close to clinching a playoff spot while Jim Fassel is close to his departure from New York. Take Dallas for $10.
Arizona at Seattle -- Seahawks favored by 13 1/2. I trust the Cardinals will again start Josh McCown at quarterback, and since I'm taking the Seahawks, I'm counting on his help. The guy will never be an NFL passer. He wants to run . . . and he doesn't do that particularly well, either. Take Seattle for $10.
Denver at Indianapolis -- No line. Indy is just one game ahead of Tennessee in the AFC South (and one behind the Patriots and Kansas City for the AFC top seed), so even at 11-3, the pressure is still on. Denver's even more desperate for a victory. Take Indianapolis for $100.
Tennessee at Houston -- No line. With Steve McNair still hurting, look for the Texans to deliver another spirited performance. They're usually tough at home. Take Houston for $50.
Last week: Green Bay, giving 5, defeated San Diego, 38-21, plus $50; Miami, giving 2, lost to Philadelphia, 34-27, minus $110; Dallas, even, defeated Washington, 27-0, plus $50; St. Louis, giving 7, defeated Seattle, 27-22, minus $110; San Francisco, getting 3, lost at Cincinnati, 41-38, minus $11; Denver, giving 10 1/2, defeated Cleveland, 23-20, minus $11; Jacksonville, getting 7, lost at New England, 27-13, minus $11. Net for week: minus $153. Net for season: minus $661.
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